MLB Bets 2026-07-24

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	179W–126L–0P	59%	-3.73 u	Last 14 days • 305 settled
Grade A	18W–12L–0P	60%	+2.09 u
Grade B	161W–114L–0P	59%	-5.82 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2173W–1552L–8P	58%	-142.54 u	All-time • 3733 settled
Grade A	223W–160L–0P	58%	+6.86 u
Grade B	1950W–1392L–8P	58%	-149.40 u

43 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Casey Schmitt	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Dillon Dingler	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Liam Hicks	1.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Rafael Devers	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	William Contreras	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Bryce Miller	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	4.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	4.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	2.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	German Marquez	2.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Grant Holmes	2.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane McClanahan	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Spencer Arrighetti	2.5	-112	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Zebby Matthews	2.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Hits Allow	Logan Webb	5.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Hits Allow	Matthew Boyd	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Hits Allow	Zebby Matthews	5.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Outs	Trey Yesavage	17.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-23	K Prop	Gavin Williams	6.5	-121	-	WIN	+0.826	Gavin Williams: 11.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	449	57%	+0.54u	57	56%	-0.56u	208	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	398	59%	+15.85u	52	56%	-1.03u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	139	55%	-2.25u	1	100%	+0.83u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	631	72%	-8.16u	4	100%	+0.90u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	401	58%	-7.46u	89	53%	-10.20u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	288	60%	-10.84u	63	67%	+4.64u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	108	45%	-15.11u	7	57%	-0.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	491	51%	-57.02u	7	57%	-0.34u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	1/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 449, 14d N 57	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 398, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 139, 14d N 1	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 24 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 115 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 8 actionable / 195 total candidate(s); season N 491, 14d N 7	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 195 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 757 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 318 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 736 pitcher(s), 3235 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 561 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1067 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Athletics, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2126 market side(s) checked \| 2126 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 13 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 195 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 606 \| batter bats 392 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 62 \| batter pitch-type 561 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 260 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	+208	-258	+1.5 (-105)	-1.5 (-115)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+102	-123	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+241	-303	+1.5 (+108)	-1.5 (-130)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+134)	+1.5 (-162)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	+112	-135	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-194)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+118	-142	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+147)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-122	+101	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+142	-172	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 21 Grade B | 676 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -151, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.393/AVG 0.406 over 37 PA	K Prop	Bryce Miller Over	MAR@RAN	8:06 PM	5.5	7.1	-151	BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 \| best price	29.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Joey Cantillo Over	GUA@RAY	7:11 PM	4.5	5.6	-154	FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 \| best price	24.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal Market health caution: Run Line Grade A is still eligible, but current drawdown is active: season P&L -2.251u	Run Line	New York Mets +1.5	DOD@MET	7:11 PM	1.5	-	-126	MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -119 \| best price	+14.8%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (16 play(s))

Pitcher Outs - Trey Yesavage Under

Projection: 14.1Displayed: Under 17.5 -109Market line: majority 16.5 | avg 16.9Recommended: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exactOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 16.9 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 16.5 / avg 16.9

Batter H+R+RBI - William Contreras Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

K Prop - Trevor Rogers Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

K Prop - Cam Schlittler Under

Projection: 7.1Displayed: Under 7.5 -142Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.9Recommended: theScore Bet Under 7.5 -140 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 6.9 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.9

K Prop - Sean Manaea Over

Projection: 4.7Displayed: Over 4.5 -163Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.17Recommended: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.17

Batter Hits - Kyle Stowers Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Jordan Walker Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Luis Arraez Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Shohei Ohtani Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Jacob Wilson Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.83

Batter H+R+RBI - Gunnar Henderson Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Willi Castro Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Kyle Stowers Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.83

Batter H+R+RBI - Coby Mayo Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Amed Rosario Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Dane Myers Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-151) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-151	+119	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-148	+116	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.64K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.8% / under 43.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 10.4, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.246 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 37 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .406 | OPS 1.393
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 24.3%/37 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -151, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.393/AVG 0.406 over 37 PA -- A risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 (-154) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+117	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-154	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joey Cantillo: K/9 10.5, proj 5.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 16.5%, L7 18.8%, season 18.9% (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 31.3% vs season 24.6%, proj adj +3.3%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-126) edge 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -126

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -119 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.07/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 14.8% ≥ 5%
- No profile for New York Mets — role hit rate + L5 gates skipped
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Sean Manaea (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Roki Sasaki (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Market health caution: Run Line Grade A is still eligible, but current drawdown is active: season P&L -2.251u

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (21 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-141) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -141

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-
Fanatics	4.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 32.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.45K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 7.2, proj 3.1K over 4.4 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.403 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.072
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.6%, L7 25.3%, season 21.1%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.38 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 under 4.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Trey Yesavage Under 17.5 (-109) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 16.9 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 16.5 at 3 books | 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 16.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-115	-118	-
Caesars	16.5	-122	-109	-
FanDuel	16.5	-136	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 14.054 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.79 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 16.9 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .121 | OPS .394
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 5.7%, split 6.7%, L7 5.7%, season 7.9%, BVP 0.0%/34 PA (adj 0.81x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-140) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+106	-140	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 47 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 25.2%, L7 32.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 21.3%/47 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (+100) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.08, BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 42 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 28.8%, split 25.7%, L7 27.3%, season 25.2%, BVP 50.0%/42 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (-139) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (-138) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.70 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 3.14)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .588
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 15.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Under 2.5 (-177) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+132	-177	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.75 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 2.90)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 37 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .406 | OPS 1.393
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.3%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-177); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-138) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+100	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.31 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 3.15)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .250 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.2%, L7 19.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-117) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	-
DK	2.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.55 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 7.14)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.072
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.6%, L7 25.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 over 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 (-112) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.57 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.88, ERA 5.97)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-121) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-121	-109	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.03 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 5.71)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-138) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.68, ERA 3.09)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.088
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — German Marquez Over 2.5 (-133) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+105	-
DK	2.5	-133	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.63 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 5.00, ERA 5.34)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.4% / under 46.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.227
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 17.1%, L7 30.6%, season 21.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-121) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.714 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/40 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.11

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-156) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
Base projection 2.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.339 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/103 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/51 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.88 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 60/103 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.62

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -156 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-136) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.254 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/96 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 56/96 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-121) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.444 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 5/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.607
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/102 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 54/102 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-126) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.291 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 58/99 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.46

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, weak consensus 50% without extra raw cushion -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-157) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.428, xSLG 0.686 (34 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/94 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 50/94 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -157 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-157) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-168) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-168	+126	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/95 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 51/95 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, weak consensus 0% without extra raw cushion, heavy juice -168 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-127) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.398 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/91 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 48/91 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (676 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 6 | C 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 (-114) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-103	-125	-
DK	7.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	7.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 27.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 12.2, proj 9.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.9% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Sweeper (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .291 | OPS .914
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.8%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.70 | Season Avg 7.15
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
K% trend: support +9.1 ppts (recent 38.7% vs season 29.6%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (+110) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	5.5	+104	-137	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jared Jones: K/9 10.5, proj 6.6K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.8% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .298 | OPS .976
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.4%, L7 23.8%, season 21.6%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 over 5.5
K% trend: support +5.9 ppts (recent 35.3% vs season 29.4%, proj adj +2.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Logan Webb Over 5.5 (-163) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-145	+111	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-163	+128	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Webb: K/9 6.7, proj 6.4K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 42 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .822
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 28.4%, split 25.7%, L7 27.3%, season 25.2%, active roster 25.6%/6 hitters, BVP 50.0%/42 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 27.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 (-151) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-170	+130	-
DK	5.5	-151	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-172	+134	-
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.1, proj 6.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .233 | OPS .781
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.9%, L7 19.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (-128) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	5.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Drohan: K/9 9.2, proj 6.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .250 | OPS .673
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 24.2%, L7 19.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 21.5%/8 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/20 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-151) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+117	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-151	+119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.8% / under 43.2%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.2, proj 4.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.088
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/19 (26%) | Season 5/19 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 (-150) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+125	-164	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Rhett Lowder: K/9 8.1, proj 3.0K over 3.8 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | AVG .111 | OPS .415
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.2%, L7 19.9%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.6%/6 hitters, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.59
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-156) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+124	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.72K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Trevor Rogers: K/9 7.7, proj 4.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.28
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 18.8%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 (+105) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	5.5	+102	-136	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Boyd: K/9 8.0, proj 6.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 47 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .607
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 25.2%, L7 32.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 21.3%/47 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -6.4 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 23.5%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 (-138) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+125	-164	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Lopez: K/9 8.7, proj 4.0K over 3.7 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 39 PA | K% 46.2% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .167 | OPS .627
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 21.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 46.2%/39 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +6.9 ppts (recent 24.3% vs season 17.4%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-135) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	3.5	+110	-148	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.36K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tomoyuki Sugano: K/9 5.0, proj 3.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.2% | put-away% 11.6% | xwOBA 0.394 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.2%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — German Marquez Under 3.5 (-136) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -136

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+107	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.33K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
German Marquez: K/9 6.7, proj 3.2K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 12.5% | xwOBA 0.365 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.227
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 17.1%, L7 30.6%, season 21.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Davis Martin Under 4.5 (-153) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Davis Martin: K/9 7.2, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .834
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.31 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.8 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 22.0%, proj adj -4.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 (-103) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trey Yesavage: K/9 8.8, proj 6.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .121 | OPS .394
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane McClanahan Under 5.5 (-132) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane McClanahan: K/9 7.7, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .588
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 15.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.72
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.2 ppts (recent 17.3% vs season 22.5%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (-142) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 7.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 6.9 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 7.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 6.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-164	+126	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	6.5	-162	+126	-
DK	7.5	+112	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.75
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.1, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.90
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-147) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+115	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.1, proj 4.3K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Curveball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .844
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 26.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 71%; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 4.5 (-163) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+123	Recommended
DK	4.5	-163	+128	Selected
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.80
Sean Manaea: K/9 9.2, proj 4.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 164 PA | K% 20.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .979
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 164 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.4%, L7 25.1%, season 20.6%, BVP 20.1%/164 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 (-145) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+113	-145	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.2% / under 55.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 9.4, proj 5.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 19.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7%, active roster 23.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 (-145) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.1, proj 4.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 37.3% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .608
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.1%, L7 19.5%, season 19.6%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 0/2 (0%) | L10 0/2 (0%) | L20 0/2 (0%) | Season 0/2 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/2 under 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 (+128) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Roki Sasaki: K/9 8.6, proj 5.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.9%, L7 28.8%, season 22.3%, active roster 19.4%/7 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dustin May Under 5.5 (+103) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-131	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dustin May: K/9 9.3, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .699
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.7%, L7 17.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: support +4.0 ppts (recent 26.9% vs season 22.9%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 (+114) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -148 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 8.07 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 4 books | 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -148 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 8.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	7.5	-148	+116	Recommended
Fanatics	7.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	8.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	8.5	+117	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	8.5	+114	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	8.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.8K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.4, proj 8.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .704
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 94 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.8%/6 hitters, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 64%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
K% trend: support +7.1 ppts (recent 37.6% vs season 30.5%, proj adj +3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (+120) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+120	-154	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.8, proj 4.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 187 play(s) (B 5 | C 182)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-141) diff 65.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/79 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/43 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 19/36 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 48/79 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-124) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 56/103 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-140) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/96 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 51/96 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-121) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 58/102 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-140) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/102 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 57/102 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-158) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+118	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.54
Base projection 2.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 62/100 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.54

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-166) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-166	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+135	-185	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.307 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/96 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/43 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 52/96 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-126) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.395 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/94 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/41 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 52/94 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+103) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.346 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/93 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 43/93 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-119) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.507, xSLG 0.766 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/92 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/43 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 52/92 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+115) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.375 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/88 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.84 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 41/88 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-140) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.479 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/98 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/47 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/98 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+108) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.479 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/98 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/47 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/98 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-150) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/102 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 55/102 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-126) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.472 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/97 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 56/97 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-152) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.460 (37 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 35.7% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/94 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.72 | Day Batter HRR: 54/94 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-116) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.444, xSLG 0.541 (45 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/83 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/39 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter HRR: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 40/83 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-128) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.559 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 45/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+121) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.386 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/95 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+120) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.386 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/95 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Lowe Over 1.5 (+127) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.386 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/95 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-123) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Spencer Arrighetti: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/100 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/100 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-138) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-138) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.424 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/102 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 55/102 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-147) diff 51.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-147	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.589, xSLG 0.991 (20 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-146) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/92 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 45/92 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-120) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.247 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/103 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 58/103 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-101) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.460 (59 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/86 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 26/41 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 49/86 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-120) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.492 (14 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/81 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/39 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 41/81 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-109) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.421, xSLG 0.600 (54 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/102 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 57/102 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-108) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.392 (37 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/97 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.63 | Day Batter HRR: 51/97 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+109) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.267 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-166) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	-
DK	1.5	-166	+124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.441, xSLG 0.528 (37 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 52/100 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-119) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/100 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 54/100 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-141) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.161 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/82 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/40 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 25/42 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 49/82 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-130) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.438, xSLG 0.697 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 56/101 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-127) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-109) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.355 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 49/95 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+106) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.324 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 53/98 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-109) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.497 (68 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/102 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 52/102 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-130) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.335 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 55/103 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+104) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (-113) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-109) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.521 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 49/95 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-107) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.487 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-119) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-101) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-131) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.292 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/100 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 49/100 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-109) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/101 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 57/101 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 2.5 (-171) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	2.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Under 2.5 (-149) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+115) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+115	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.508 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/99 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 43/99 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-117) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.334 (22 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 23 PA | 8/22 | HR 4 | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.346
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/96 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 47/96 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-122) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-137) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-137	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.324 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/90 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/41 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 47/90 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-107) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.531 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 52/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-102) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.363 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/87 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 18/39 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 43/87 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+111) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.386, xSLG 0.581 (41 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-107) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.440 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/84 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 41/84 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-129) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.425 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/74 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 16/36 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-110) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.547 (43 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/90 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 41/90 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+115) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.224 (22 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-112) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.217 (57 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 52/100 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+110) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.195, xSLG 0.262 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/89 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 44/89 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-125) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.576 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .282
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 25/44 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 54/92 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-118) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/89 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 41/89 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-137) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+114) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 5/9 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.933
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/92 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 53/92 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-117) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/94 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/94 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+100) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.232 (12 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/79 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 17/38 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 39/79 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Under 2.5 (-157) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+113	-150	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.97 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.335 (31 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/99 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/51 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 36/48 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 69/99 under 2.5 (70%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+137) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.332 (53 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 53/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+119) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.303 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+118) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Under 2.5 (-138) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+105	-139	-
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.02 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.203, xSLG 0.176 (22 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/98 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 under 2.5 (51%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 32/47 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 58/98 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (-101) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.334 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+104) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+118) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.264 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-110) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/96 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 43/96 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (-101) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.405 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 45/96 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-108) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.255 (59 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-106) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.279 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/83 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 44/83 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+132) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.381 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/88 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/45 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 18/43 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 46/88 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Under 2.5 (-161) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.13 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.517 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/78 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/37 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 28/41 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 56/78 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-122) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.193 (49 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+100) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.351 (70 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/100 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 50/100 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-111) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.518 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 41/98 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-114) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.351 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+100) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+108) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.79 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.571, xSLG 0.932 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 2.5 (60%), avg 2.98 | Away Batter HRR: 16/49 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+115) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.425 (24 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/82 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 38/82 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+100) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.274 (52 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-150) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+131) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.485 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/95 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 18/44 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 42/95 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 2.5 (+129) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+122	-164	-
DK	2.5	+129	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.73 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.471 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/99 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/50 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 41/99 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-120) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+133) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+126) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-141) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-105) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.522 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/96 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 47/96 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+104) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.358 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 45/96 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-108) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.371 (45 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Harry Ford Over 1.5 (+111) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/82 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 32/82 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 (-106) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/82 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 32/82 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.294 (57 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 49/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-119) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-151) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-114) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-113) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Locklear Over 1.5 (+101) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+102) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (+118) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-122) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-138) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+104) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+112) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 2.5 (+115) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.65 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/53 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 over 2.5 (56%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 47/101 over 2.5 (46%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.140, xSLG 0.189 (18 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 52/100 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-129) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-116) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-108) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-116) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+106) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+108) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-150) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-128) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Soler Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.249 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 18 PA | 2/17 | HR 1 | K% 61.1% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .461
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 34/79 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 14/37 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 34/79 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-132) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/96 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter HRR: 57/96 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Bart Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colton Cowser Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-104) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-155) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-107) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-180	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-137) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Vierling Over 1.5 (-105) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Malgeri Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Rogers Over 1.5 (+127) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Logan O'Hoppe Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-120) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-122) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.188 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-121) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-171) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.322 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/98 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/48 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 56/98 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+100) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	Recommended
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+106) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-114) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+133) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Under 2.5 (-134) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+108	-145	-
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.49 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.553 (49 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/78 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/37 under 2.5 (51%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 26/41 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 45/78 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Under 1.5 (-176) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.108, xSLG 0.208 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 under 1.5 (46%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 51/98 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dustin May Under 17.5 (+121) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +121

Selected market: Over 57.6% / Under 42.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-162	+121	-
DK	17.5	-160	+121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.545 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.91 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.6% / under 42.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.7%, L7 17.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.8%, L7 6.6%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.80 | Season Avg 15.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (-129) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	-125	-110	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	18.5	-125	-106	-
DK	18.5	-129	-102	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.474999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 52.7% / under 47.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 42 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 28.8%, split 25.7%, L7 27.3%, season 25.2%, BVP 50.0%/42 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.7%, L7 8.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.8%/42 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (-102) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 18.5 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	-105	-130	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	18.5	-104	-129	-
DK	18.5	-102	-130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	18.5	-102	-132	Recommended
Fanatics	18.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 20.318 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.9 IP (xFIP 2.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.9 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.4%, split 5.3%, L7 7.2%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.3%/94 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/14 (29%) | Season 4/14 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+128) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +128

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-164	+123	-
DK	17.5	-171	+128	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.834 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, L7 8.8%, season 8.0% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-163) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+126	-
DK	17.5	-163	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 19.137 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.99 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, L7 7.8%, season 10.0% (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 17.5 (-150) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+125	-
DK	17.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.937 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .291 | OPS .914
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.8%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.6%, L7 7.8%, season 10.0%, BVP 5.0%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Drohan Under 17.5 (+101) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-134	+101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.195 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.74 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .250 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.2%, L7 19.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 7.9%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.20 | Season Avg 11.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +3.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (-104) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-130	-103	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.238 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .233 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.9%, L7 19.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.1%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.7%/64 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 15.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Miller Over 17.5 (-155) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-159	+119	-
DK	17.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+130	-
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 18.591 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 37 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .406 | OPS 1.393
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.3%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.1%, L7 6.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 (+125) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +125

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+128	-
DK	17.5	-166	+125	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-210	+145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.449 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.37 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 14.3%, L7 6.2%, season 9.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-147) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .844
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 26.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-155) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.7%, L7 17.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-118) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — German Marquez Under 5.5 (-141) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 9.9%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.227
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 17.1%, L7 30.6%, season 21.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 5.5 (+101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 6.0%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.2%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (-119) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 164 PA | K% 20.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .979
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.4%, L7 25.1%, season 20.6%, BVP 20.1%/164 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 (-104) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.27 over 4.2 IP (WHIP 1.66, BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.072
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.6%, L7 25.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.62 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (C 14)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Under 2.5 (-147) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.67 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 3.36)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .834
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-137) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.39 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.56)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .298 | OPS .976
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 23.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-145) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.40)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 16.5%, L7 18.8%, season 18.9% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.97 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 3.66)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 47 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 25.2%, L7 32.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 21.3%/47 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-112) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.82 over 3.5 IP (xFIP 5.39, ERA 6.96)
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 39 PA | K% 46.2% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .167 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 21.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 46.2%/39 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Under 2.5 (-160) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	-
DK	2.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 4.79)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.7%, L7 17.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-164) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.96 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 5.00, ERA 5.42)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.2%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.55, ERA 2.85)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .844
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 26.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/20 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 (-104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.56, ERA 3.10)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-170) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-175	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.31 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.42, ERA 2.71)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Under 2.5 (-109) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-121	-109	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.44 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 4.89)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 164 PA | K% 20.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .979
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.4%, L7 25.1%, season 20.6%, BVP 20.1%/164 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 (-143) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-155	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.77 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 5.26)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 19.9%, L7 28.8%, season 22.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 (-157) Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.48 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 5.64)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .233 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.9%, L7 19.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-167) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+125	-167	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.87 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 4.23)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 42 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 28.8%, split 25.7%, L7 27.3%, season 25.2%, BVP 50.0%/42 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 24 play(s) (C 24)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-259) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+190	-259	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.83 (AVG 0.236)
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366 (14 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 5/35 (14%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/99 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/51 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter Hits: 79/99 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.83

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-232) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -232

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+172	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-253) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+187	-253	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-180) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-220) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+163	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-267) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -250; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-233) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+173	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-251) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.289 (31 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/40 (18%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/99 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 75/99 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kyle Stowers Under 1.5 (-271) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -271

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+199	-271	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.229)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 5/38 (13%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/78 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/37 under 1.5 (89%), avg 0.68 | Away Batter Hits: 30/41 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 63/78 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-201) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.258)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.203 (22 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/98 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 68/98 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-258) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 36/47 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 72/98 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-251) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.264)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 39/50 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 74/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-256) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.351 (30 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/35 (31%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 77/102 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-265) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.275)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/37 (40%) | L5 8/18 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/79 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 27/36 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 55/79 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-243) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+180	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.428 (34 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/33 (39%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/94 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 66/94 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-198) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/41 (29%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 33/45 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-254) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+188	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.385 (49 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/37 (27%) | L5 6/15 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/78 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/37 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 31/41 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 55/78 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-246) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+182	-246	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.441 (37 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/100 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/50 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 76/100 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-262) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+193	-262	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.291)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 71/100 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-253) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+187	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 4/34 (12%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-234) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365 (45 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 9/21 (43%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 69/101 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-223) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+166	-223	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.328)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.571 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/37 (46%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 34/49 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 65/102 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-206) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+154	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.320)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/43 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 59/96 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-209) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+155	-209	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.332)
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/50 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 58/99 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 115 play(s) (C 115)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-124) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.932 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+120) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.714 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/40 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.38x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 5/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.607
BVP production adjustment: 1.12x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/102 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 42/102 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-124) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-119	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.553 (49 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/78 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter TB: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 40/78 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+107) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.559 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/99 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 44/99 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+102) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.339 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+100) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.686 (34 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/94 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 41/94 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (+106) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.766 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/92 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 43/92 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+103) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/100 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 47/100 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+122) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/99 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/50 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 44/99 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-107) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.307 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+105) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.424 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+124) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.541 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/83 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter TB: 15/44 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 34/83 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter TB: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+116) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/95 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/95 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+117) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.254 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/96 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 41/96 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-101) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.460 (37 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 35.7% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/94 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 43/94 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+123) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/94 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 39/94 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+141) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/96 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 39/96 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+123) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.600 (54 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+134) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.392 (37 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+103) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+116) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Spencer Arrighetti: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+103) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.991 (20 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+114) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/79 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 12/36 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 33/79 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+102) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-107) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.517 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/78 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/37 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 27/78 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+124) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/103 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 42/103 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+119) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.479 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/82 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 41/82 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-146) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 68/99 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 29/50 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+131) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.547 (43 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/90 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 37/90 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-190) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/96 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 62/96 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-200) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/94 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 64/94 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+127) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/97 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/97 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+145) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/91 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/44 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 35/91 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-184) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/94 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 62/94 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+118) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/95 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 39/95 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-114) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.335 (31 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+102) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.324 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/90 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 40/90 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-187) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 65/100 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+105) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/92 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 36/92 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+127) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 40/101 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+136) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.487 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-204) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/82 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/42 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 30/40 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 61/82 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+107) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-192) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.461 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 61/90 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 61/90 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+102) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.528 (37 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-175) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/89 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 60/89 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+135) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.531 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/103 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 41/103 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-170) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.193 (49 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 61/97 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-124) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (22 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-145) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/98 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 31/47 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 64/98 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+116) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.697 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/101 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-187) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 60/96 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+146) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.363 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/87 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 41/87 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+119) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.152 (11 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+118) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+128) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.472 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+126) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-186) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.334 (22 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 23 PA | 8/22 | HR 4 | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.346
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 68/96 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+132) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/84 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 31/84 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-189) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/83 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/45 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 22/38 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 47/83 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+123) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.335 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 37/103 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 37/103 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-185) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/96 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 63/96 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+136) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+137) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+109) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+127) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+141) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-117) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-109	-119	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-189) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/49 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 66/98 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.576 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .282
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/92 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 36/92 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+128) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/95 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 37/95 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-198) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/103 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 69/103 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 39/102 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (57 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/100 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 41/100 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-109) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+144) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+104) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+143) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.492 (14 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/81 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/39 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 32/81 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-102) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/100 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/100 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+114) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.382 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/51 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/99 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/100 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 15/49 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 36/100 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +133; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.497 (68 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 33/102 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/48 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 33/102 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/98 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 40/98 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+120) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+111) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/74 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 13/36 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 29/74 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 (-174) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.522 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/96 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 55/96 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+148) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/101 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 44/101 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+147) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+170	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/101 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/52 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 34/101 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Under 1.5 (-200) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/48 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 60/96 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+148) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (12 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/79 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 13/38 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 27/79 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+152) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+151	-205	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+146) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+142) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Under 1.5 (-189) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.174 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 60/100 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-112	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-108	-	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-112	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-109	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-116	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryce Miller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Bryce Miller elite xFIP (3.34)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-107) edge 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -107

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-105	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-107	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-	-
DK	7.5	-107	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-105	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-102	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-109	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-118) edge 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5) | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Carson Palmquist xFIP 4.17
Eduardo Rodriguez xFIP 4.55
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP)
Away SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-146) edge 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books | 4 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	Recommended
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+112	Selected
BetOnline	4	-115	-105	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Shane McClanahan xFIP 4.00
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.15
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+185) edge 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +185

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Shane Drohan xFIP 3.74
Tomoyuki Sugano xFIP 5.00
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane Drohan (LHP)
Away SP: Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Jared Jones: xFIP 3.66, K% 29.2%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.8% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.237, K% 50.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 30.9%
Matthew Boyd: xFIP 3.93, K% 21.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 29.2% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 25.0%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 26.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.09
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Jared Jones: 78% (9 starts) | Matthew Boyd: 80% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.319 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +19.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -10.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-132) edge 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

MacKenzie Gore: xFIP 3.95, K% 25.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.308, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.302, K% 33.0%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.34, K% 28.8%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.246, whiff% 28.7% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.186, K% 26.5%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 17.6%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.84
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: MacKenzie Gore: 71% (21 starts) | Bryce Miller: 90% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +16.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -6.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Davis Martin: xFIP 3.76, K% 18.9%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.216, K% 34.8%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 22.5%
Spencer Arrighetti: xFIP 4.88, K% 23.7%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.344, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 27.4%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 24.5%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Davis Martin: 90% (19 starts) | Spencer Arrighetti: 81% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.352 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +8.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +0.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 2.93, K% 32.8%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.266, whiff% 32.9% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 29.3%, BB% 8.0%, whiff% 27.0%
Will Warren: xFIP 3.95, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 36.0%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 26.0%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Jesús Luzardo: 95% (20 starts) | Will Warren: 74% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.324 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +7.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +1.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-140) edge 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Tarik Skubal: xFIP 2.42, K% 33.0%, BB% 3.4%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 31.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 37.2%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 33.9%
Beck Way: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.2%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 27.4%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Tarik Skubal: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.386 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +6.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +2.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-140) edge 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane McClanahan: xFIP 4.00, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 30.4%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 26.4%
Joey Cantillo: xFIP 4.15, K% 27.0%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.276, K% 27.9%, BB% 10.5%, whiff% 27.6%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.57
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 83% (18 starts) | Joey Cantillo: 81% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +3.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +5.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+110) edge -0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Carson Palmquist: xFIP 4.17, K% 23.9%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.313, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.250, K% 38.9%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 29.3%
Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.55, K% 16.3%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (87 PA): xwOBA 0.391, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 13.5%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 60% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge -0.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +9.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-108) edge -7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Dustin May: xFIP 3.91, K% 24.3%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 25.6%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 22.1%
Rhett Lowder: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.1%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 20.0% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 18.3%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 18.8%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Dustin May: 63% (19 starts) | Rhett Lowder: 57% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.237 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -7.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +16.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane Drohan: xFIP 3.74, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 27.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.235, K% 26.3%, BB% 13.2%, whiff% 26.2%
Tomoyuki Sugano: xFIP 5.00, K% 13.2%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.394, whiff% 17.2% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.404, K% 21.3%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 19.6%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Shane Drohan: 90% (10 starts) | Tomoyuki Sugano: 59% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.279 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +18.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Grant Holmes: xFIP 4.68, K% 18.6%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 27.6%, BB% 9.2%, whiff% 27.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.92
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Grant Holmes: 78% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +10.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-118) edge -10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Patrick Sandoval: xFIP 4.11, K% 23.1%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (6 PA): xwOBA 0.173, K% 33.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.5%
Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.79, K% 23.0%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 30.3% | 1st inn full (63 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 22.2%, BB% 15.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Trey Yesavage: 67% (15 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.287 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -10.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +19.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-108) edge -11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sean Manaea: xFIP 4.12, K% 22.5%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.353, K% 14.7%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 18.7%
Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.31, K% 21.8%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 28.9% | 1st inn full (66 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.6%, whiff% 26.1%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sean Manaea: 43% (7 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.332 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -11.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +20.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-136) edge -14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -136

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Logan Webb: xFIP 3.77, K% 18.0%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 20.4% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.349, K% 27.5%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 27.5%
Grayson Rodriguez: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.2%, BB% 9.2%, xwOBA 0.403, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 14.7%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 17.7%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 100)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.73 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Logan Webb: 82% (17 starts) | Grayson Rodriguez: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.240 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -14.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +23.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-108) edge -16.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Germán Márquez: xFIP 5.00, K% 16.8%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.365, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 23.8%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 19.8%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Germán Márquez: 44% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -16.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +17.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.37, K% 20.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.335, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.362, K% 17.3%, BB% 1.9%, whiff% 15.2%
Jacob Lopez: xFIP 5.39, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 18.9%, BB% 18.9%, whiff% 20.9%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Zebby Matthews: 50% (12 starts) | Jacob Lopez: 83% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 60-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -19.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +28.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.37, K% 20.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.335, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.362, K% 17.3%, BB% 1.9%, whiff% 15.2%
Jacob Lopez: xFIP 5.39, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 18.9%, BB% 18.9%, whiff% 20.9%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Zebby Matthews: 50% (12 starts) | Jacob Lopez: 83% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 60-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -19.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +28.5%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 28% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+106) edge 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Logan Webb: xFIP 3.77, K% 18.0%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 20.4% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.349, K% 27.5%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 27.5%
Grayson Rodriguez: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.2%, BB% 9.2%, xwOBA 0.403, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 14.7%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 17.7%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 100)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.73 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Logan Webb: 82% (17 starts) | Grayson Rodriguez: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.240 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -14.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +23.7%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-118) edge 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Sean Manaea: xFIP 4.12, K% 22.5%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.353, K% 14.7%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 18.7%
Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.31, K% 21.8%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 28.9% | 1st inn full (66 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.6%, whiff% 26.1%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sean Manaea: 43% (7 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.332 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -11.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +20.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Patrick Sandoval: xFIP 4.11, K% 23.1%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (6 PA): xwOBA 0.173, K% 33.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.5%
Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.79, K% 23.0%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 30.3% | 1st inn full (63 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 22.2%, BB% 15.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Trey Yesavage: 67% (15 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.287 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -10.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +19.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Shane Drohan: xFIP 3.74, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 27.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.235, K% 26.3%, BB% 13.2%, whiff% 26.2%
Tomoyuki Sugano: xFIP 5.00, K% 13.2%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.394, whiff% 17.2% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.404, K% 21.3%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 19.6%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Shane Drohan: 90% (10 starts) | Tomoyuki Sugano: 59% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.279 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +18.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Germán Márquez: xFIP 5.00, K% 16.8%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.365, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 23.8%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 19.8%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Germán Márquez: 44% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -16.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +17.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-118) edge 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Dustin May: xFIP 3.91, K% 24.3%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 25.6%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 22.1%
Rhett Lowder: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.1%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 20.0% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 18.3%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 18.8%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Dustin May: 63% (19 starts) | Rhett Lowder: 57% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.237 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -7.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +16.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Grant Holmes: xFIP 4.68, K% 18.6%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 27.6%, BB% 9.2%, whiff% 27.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.92
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Grant Holmes: 78% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +10.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-140) edge 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Carson Palmquist: xFIP 4.17, K% 23.9%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.313, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.250, K% 38.9%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 29.3%
Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.55, K% 16.3%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (87 PA): xwOBA 0.391, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 13.5%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 60% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge -0.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +9.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+110) edge 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Shane McClanahan: xFIP 4.00, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 30.4%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 26.4%
Joey Cantillo: xFIP 4.15, K% 27.0%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.276, K% 27.9%, BB% 10.5%, whiff% 27.6%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.57
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 83% (18 starts) | Joey Cantillo: 81% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +3.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +5.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+110) edge 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Tarik Skubal: xFIP 2.42, K% 33.0%, BB% 3.4%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 31.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 37.2%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 33.9%
Beck Way: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.2%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 27.4%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Tarik Skubal: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.386 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +6.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +2.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-102) edge 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 2.93, K% 32.8%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.266, whiff% 32.9% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 29.3%, BB% 8.0%, whiff% 27.0%
Will Warren: xFIP 3.95, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 36.0%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 26.0%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Jesús Luzardo: 95% (20 starts) | Will Warren: 74% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.324 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +7.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +1.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Davis Martin: xFIP 3.76, K% 18.9%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.216, K% 34.8%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 22.5%
Spencer Arrighetti: xFIP 4.88, K% 23.7%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.344, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 27.4%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 24.5%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Davis Martin: 90% (19 starts) | Spencer Arrighetti: 81% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.352 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +8.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +0.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+106) edge -6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

MacKenzie Gore: xFIP 3.95, K% 25.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.308, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.302, K% 33.0%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.34, K% 28.8%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.246, whiff% 28.7% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.186, K% 26.5%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 17.6%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.84
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: MacKenzie Gore: 71% (21 starts) | Bryce Miller: 90% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +16.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -6.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-102) edge -10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Jared Jones: xFIP 3.66, K% 29.2%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.8% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.237, K% 50.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 30.9%
Matthew Boyd: xFIP 3.93, K% 21.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 29.2% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 25.0%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 26.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.09
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Jared Jones: 78% (9 starts) | Matthew Boyd: 80% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.319 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +19.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -10.4%

▸ Batter HR — 260 play(s) (C 260)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0104
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/96 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/48 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 95/96 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 97.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0105
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.171 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/95 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/46 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 94/95 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/96 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 96/96 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tsung-Che Cheng Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Robles Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Rogers Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Vierling Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Rincones Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Huff Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Bart Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eli White Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braxton Fulford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0400
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/100 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 96/100 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0412
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (57 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/97 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 93/97 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0426
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/94 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 90/94 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0417
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.307 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/96 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/43 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 92/96 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0510
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.188 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/98 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/98 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0583
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.335 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/103 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 97/103 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0532
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/94 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/41 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/94 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0619
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.472 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/97 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/97 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0686
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.255 (59 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0707
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/99 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/99 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0723
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 77/83 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 77/83 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.427 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .465
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 70/76 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 70/76 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.224 (22 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0722
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0787
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/89 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 39/41 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 83/89 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0729
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.334 (22 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 23 PA | 8/22 | HR 4 | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.346
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/96 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/96 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.411 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/96 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/96 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/100 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/45 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 92/100 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0778
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.461 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/90 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/90 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/96 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 89/96 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0918
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.322 (53 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0928
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/97 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 88/97 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1100
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.189 (18 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (70 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1075
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/93 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 84/93 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1042
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.522 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/96 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 87/96 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0918
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0978
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 5/9 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.933
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1023
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.381 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/88 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 80/88 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.528 (37 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0864
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.492 (14 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/81 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/39 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 74/81 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/94 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 85/94 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1124
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.262 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/89 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 80/89 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1020
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/98 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 88/98 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0980
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.497 (68 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-600) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/92 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 84/92 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (52 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1190
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.207 (66 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/84 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/39 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 74/84 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1158
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/95 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 84/95 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.332 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/102 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/102 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.508 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1383
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.235 (24 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/94 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 81/94 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.487 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1341
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.425 (24 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/82 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 72/82 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1264
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.363 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/87 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 77/87 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/95 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 85/95 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1392
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.249 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 18 PA | 2/17 | HR 1 | K% 61.1% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .461
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 68/79 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 68/79 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1458
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 39 PA | 11/39 | HR 4 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 39 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/96 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/96 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1458
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/96 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 82/96 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.193 (49 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.341 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/98 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1359
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1735
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/98 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 82/98 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 65/74 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 65/74 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.697 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/101 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/101 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.303 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1649
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.301 (33 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/97 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 82/97 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.382 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.307 (52 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (55 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 86/98 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.479 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.479 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.479 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-425) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.335 (31 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1519
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (12 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/79 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 68/79 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1684
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.485 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/95 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 82/95 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1630
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.576 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .282
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/92 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 78/92 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/102 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 86/102 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/96 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 82/96 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.991 (20 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (22 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-500) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (22 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/98 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/98 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1458
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.254 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 78/91 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 78/91 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1900
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (57 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/100 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 82/100 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1546
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.517 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/78 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/37 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 69/78 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1980
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.264 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1778
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.324 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/90 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/41 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 76/90 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1863
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.371 (45 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/102 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/102 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.375 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/88 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/43 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 75/88 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2073
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/82 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 66/82 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.581 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/98 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 80/98 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2340
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.152 (11 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/94 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 73/94 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2039
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.531 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1977
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.460 (59 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 33/41 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 69/86 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1979
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/96 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 79/96 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2079
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.174 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/100 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 79/100 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2059
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.600 (54 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-800) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.547 (43 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/90 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 74/90 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/84 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 30/42 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 67/84 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1856
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.267 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2039
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/103 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 82/103 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/100 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 80/100 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-450) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2100
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Spencer Arrighetti: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/100 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 81/100 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.346 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10, HR vulnerability 90 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/93 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/93 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-800) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2211
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.386 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2211
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.386 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2211
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.386 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2245
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.460 (37 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 35.7% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/94 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 72/94 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/100 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 78/100 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-750) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2405
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/79 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 29/36 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 61/79 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2424
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/99 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 76/99 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2549
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 79/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2340
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.686 (34 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/94 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 75/94 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.38x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 5/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.607
BVP production adjustment: 1.12x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/102 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/102 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3093
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.392 (37 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 68/97 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2530
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.541 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/83 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/39 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 36/44 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 64/83 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-425) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.766 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/92 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/43 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 72/92 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/96 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 73/96 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-500) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/96 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 73/96 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-750) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2128
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.714 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/94 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/40 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 76/94 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-425) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2843
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.424 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 76/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-450) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2718
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.339 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-450) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3263
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/95 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 71/95 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-275) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3205
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.553 (49 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/78 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 55/78 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3333
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.932 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 73/102 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-285) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3333
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.932 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 73/102 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-260) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3333
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.559 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/99 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 71/99 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-112	50.4%	68.0%	+17.6%	$+28.70	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-107	49.5%	66.5%	+17.1%	$+28.73	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Total) +17.6%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryce Miller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Bryce Miller elite xFIP (3.34)

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +17.1%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5)	6:46 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-118	50.8%	62.4%	+11.6%	$+15.30	2	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	4:11 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	+185	33.1%	42.4%	+9.3%	$+20.82	5	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-146	55.7%	64.4%	+8.7%	$+8.46	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5) (F5 Total) +11.6%

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Carson Palmquist xFIP 4.17
Eduardo Rodriguez xFIP 4.55
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP)
Away SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 ML) +9.3%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Shane Drohan xFIP 3.74
Tomoyuki Sugano xFIP 5.00
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane Drohan (LHP)
Away SP: Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)

C Over 3.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 Total) +8.7%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Shane McClanahan xFIP 4.00
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.15
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Jared Jones / Matthew Boyd	6.5 / 7.7	3.5 / 7.7	+19.3%	Score 6.5 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	MacKenzie Gore / Bryce Miller	6.4 / 7.7	3.6 / 7.7	+16.2%	Score 6.4 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Tarik Skubal / Beck Way	5.7 / 7.7	4.3 / 7.7	+6.6%	Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.6% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	Jesús Luzardo / Will Warren	5.5 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+7.9%	Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 7.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Shane McClanahan / Joey Cantillo	5.3 / 7.7	4.7 / 7.7	+3.2%	Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Davis Martin / Spencer Arrighetti	5.1 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	+8.6%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Carson Palmquist / Eduardo Rodriguez	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-0.7%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -0.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (18 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	Shane Drohan / Tomoyuki Sugano	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-9.3%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Dustin May / Rhett Lowder	3.9 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-7.6%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	Patrick Sandoval / Trey Yesavage	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-10.8%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (6 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Logan Webb / Grayson Rodriguez	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-14.8%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.8% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	TBD / Grant Holmes ⚠ Home SP	3.6 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-9.8%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -9.8% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Sean Manaea / Roki Sasaki	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-11.9%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	TBD / Germán Márquez ⚠ Home SP	3.1 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-16.5%	Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -16.5% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	Zebby Matthews / Jacob Lopez	2.4 / 7.7	7.6 / 7.7	-19.5%	Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -19.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 260 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=260
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+185	-	38.6%	32.7%	+5.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	38.1%	25.6%	+12.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	36.3%	19.1%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Spencer Arrighetti (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	36.3%	23.1%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Braden Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Spencer Arrighetti (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	36.2%	14.1%	+22.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Beck Way (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.1%	18.4%	+17.7%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+190	-	35.3%	32.0%	+3.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	35.1%	21.7%	+13.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	34.6%	21.7%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	34.5%	21.7%	+12.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	34.0%	18.4%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Juan Soto	New York Mets	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.9%	21.7%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Spencer Arrighetti (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	33.3%	24.3%	+9.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+280	-	32.7%	24.3%	+8.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willy Adames	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.6%	18.4%	+14.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.3%	19.9%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.2%	18.4%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-	Sean Manaea (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.1%	23.1%	+9.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Beck Way (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	31.9%	20.8%	+11.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.7%	19.1%	+12.6%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	100	88.2%	-751	Shea Langeliers, Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Tyler Soderstrom	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	87.5%	-699	Juan Soto, Eddy Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages	Citi Field HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	100	86.6%	-648	Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Hunter Goodman, Garrett Mitchell	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	86.6%	-644	Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Starling Marte	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	100	86.5%	-639	Pete Alonso, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	100	85.7%	-597	Julio Rodriguez, Elias Diaz, Jake Burger, Joc Pederson	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	85.6%	-595	Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Bryan Reynolds, Pete Crow-Armstrong	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	100	85.6%	-594	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	84.4%	-542	James Wood, CJ Abrams, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	100	84.2%	-531	Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Sal Stewart	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	100	84.0%	-527	Manny Machado, Kyle Stowers, Jackson Merrill, Griffin Conine	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	100	84.0%	-525	Casey Schmitt, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Mike Trout	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	83.8%	-516	Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Yordan Alvarez	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	100	82.9%	-485	Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jose Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	100	82.9%	-484	Willson Contreras, Kazuma Okamoto, Wilyer Abreu, Davis Schneider	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies (+185) HR chance 38.6% | edge +5.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.333, OPS 0.909, ISO 0.299, TB/G 2.05
Statcast: barrel 18.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.2/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.505
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 28/99 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0329, xFIP 3.95, K% 22.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.49, whiff 22.4%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.302, K% 44.4% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.078, OPS 0.880, ISO 0.301 (269 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Shea Langeliers — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+260) HR chance 38.1% | edge +12.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.250, OPS 0.830, ISO 0.234, TB/G 2.01
Statcast: barrel 15.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.9/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.517
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 20/92 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0498, xFIP 4.40, K% 19.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.335, xERA 4.78, whiff 22.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.747, ISO 0.206 (285 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.766, xwOBA 0.507 (28 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Casey Schmitt — Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants (+380) HR chance 36.3% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.213, OPS 0.787, ISO 0.211, TB/G 1.93
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/112.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 18/94 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 5.39, K% 16.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.403, xERA 7.41, whiff 21.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.766, ISO 0.221 (293 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.714, xwOBA 0.445 (28 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Colson Montgomery — Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (+300) HR chance 36.3% | edge +13.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.250, OPS 0.771, ISO 0.248, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.1/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/96 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0321, xFIP 4.88, K% 23.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.344, xERA 5.07, whiff 26.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.725, ISO 0.225 (279 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.484, xwOBA 0.367 (23 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Braden Montgomery — Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (+550) HR chance 36.2% | edge +22.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.250, OPS 0.771, ISO 0.248, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.1/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/96 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0321, xFIP 4.88, K% 23.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.344, xERA 5.07, whiff 26.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.725, ISO 0.225 (279 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.484, xwOBA 0.367 (23 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Dillon Dingler — Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+400) HR chance 36.1% | edge +17.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.234, OPS 0.876, ISO 0.263, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 11.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.6/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.521
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/94 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0421, xFIP 3.67, K% 21.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.320, xERA 4.31, whiff 27.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.291 (270 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.686, xwOBA 0.428 (34 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Strong HR Chance Byron Buxton — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+190) HR chance 35.3% | edge +3.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.321, OPS 0.899, ISO 0.294, TB/G 2.31
Statcast: barrel 18.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.8/111.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.519
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 23/78 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0432, xFIP 5.80, K% 17.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.305, xERA 3.88, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.043, OPS 0.774, ISO 0.182 (94 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.553, xwOBA 0.385 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+320) HR chance 35.1% | edge +13.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.194, OPS 0.844, ISO 0.226, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.461
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 18/93 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0464, xFIP 5.00, K% 13.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.394, xERA 7.00, whiff 17.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.860, ISO 0.231 (275 PA)
Park HR factor 1.08

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+1100	0.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+750	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+900	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Jakob Marsee	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+750	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+700	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nolan Schanuel	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+750	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+700	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	+700	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	+700	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+650	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	Patrick Sandoval	Trey Yesavage	0.95	17.1%	47.4%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Shane McClanahan	Joey Cantillo	0.94	17.1%	47.3%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Davis Martin	Spencer Arrighetti	1.00	16.2%	45.8%	—	—
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Logan Webb	Grayson Rodriguez	0.82	16.0%	45.3%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	None	Germán Márquez	0.88	16.0%	45.2%	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Dustin May	Rhett Lowder	0.93	15.8%	45.0%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Carson Palmquist	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.02	15.6%	44.5%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Will Warren	1.10	14.4%	42.3%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Jared Jones	Matthew Boyd	0.96	14.4%	42.3%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	MacKenzie Gore	Bryce Miller	1.10	14.3%	42.2%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	None	Grant Holmes	1.00	13.5%	40.6%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Tarik Skubal	Beck Way	0.91	13.4%	40.4%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	Shane Drohan	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.08	13.4%	40.3%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Sean Manaea	Roki Sasaki	0.93	12.5%	38.5%	—	—
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	Zebby Matthews	Jacob Lopez	0.95	11.7%	36.9%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	72.1	73.2	74.5	4	Sweeper (50% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	71.2	62.8	84.5	7	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	68.1	74.3	66.0	4	Slider (37% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 32.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	67.6	69.2	71.0	5	Changeup (50% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	63.4	63.7	65.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	61.7	60.4	66.0	6	Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	58.9	65.6	54.0	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	54.9	65.6	47.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 37.3%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Beck Way	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	54.8	61.3	47.5	5	Cutter (35% whiff, 42% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	54.7	57.6	53.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	53.3	52.6	51.0	4	Sweeper (39% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	52.4	60.2	43.0	3	Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	51.2	56.8	50.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	50.5	47.8	54.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	50.1	40.6	55.0	5	Slider (27% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	49.9	59.1	41.0	5	Slider (52% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	49.0	53.1	46.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	47.7	43.3	54.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	46.9	50.9	43.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.6	44.6	47.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.2	47.3	44.5	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	45.3	57.0	35.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	43.1	45.1	40.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	36.3	39.2	35.0	5	Curveball (22% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	36.3	42.9	27.5	4	Slider (33% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	32.8	34.6	25.0	5	Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	26.7	40.9	6.0	4	Changeup (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.403, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	22.8	29.8	10.5	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.394, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	L	16.3%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	L	20.7%	2.9	4.2	4.0	49	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.6%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.1%	4.5	4.7	5.4	76	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	21.0%	5.5	5.2	5.3	92	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	18.9%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	2.7	4.6	4.2	45	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.7 IP/start
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	27.0%	5.2	5.0	5.1	87	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	13.2%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	10.50	89.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	L	33.0%	5.8	5.9	6.0	97	normal	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	23.8%	4.8	5.4	5.3	80	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Beck Way	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	21.1%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	R	17.2%	3.9	4.4	4.5	65	short	full	6.00	94.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	R	21.8%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	L	24.1%	5.5	5.1	5.2	92	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	R	20.0%	5.2	5.8	5.7	87	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	22.5%	4.9	5.2	5.3	82	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.5%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	L	32.8%	5.8	5.8	6.0	97	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	29.2%	4.4	4.4	4.5	74	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	R	16.8%	4.0	4.6	4.6	67	short	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	R	18.0%	6.2	6.3	6.3	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	R	28.8%	5.5	5.8	6.0	92	normal	full	84.50	15.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	24.3%	4.8	5.2	5.1	80	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	L	20.7%	5.3	5.1	5.1	89	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	L	25.8%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	23.0%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	23.9%	1.4	2.2	3.8	24	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Trey Yesavage	Trey Yesavage Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	14.1	-3.5	19.7%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.3	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Dustin May	Dustin May Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	14.5	-3.0	16.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.1	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	20.5	2.0	10.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	20.3	1.8	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	18.9	1.4	8.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Drohan	Shane Drohan Under	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Under	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

195 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
James Wood	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.85	1.06	1.02	0.78	2.77 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.68	1.09	0.70	0.89	2.56 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.60	1.15	0.65	0.80	2.75 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.55	1.06	0.76	0.72	2.48 / Over	0.40	season_games=79,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Brice Turang	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.44	1.06	0.71	0.68	2.72 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.42	1.04	0.71	0.66	2.37 / Over	0.35	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.40	1.34	0.53	0.53	2.40 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Shea Langeliers	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.39	1.08	0.67	0.64	2.42 / Over	0.35	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Liam Hicks	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.38	1.03	0.62	0.73	2.51 / Over	0.35	season_games=91,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.38	1.03	0.62	0.72	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel Lowe	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.36	1.32	0.52	0.52	2.36 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.36	1.14	0.56	0.66	2.30 / Over	0.40	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.35	1.04	0.71	0.61	2.29 / Over	0.40	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.32	1.09	0.67	0.56	2.17 / Over	0.35	season_games=82,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.32	1.00	0.64	0.68	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Josh Lowe	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.30	1.32	0.49	0.49	2.36 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yandy Diaz	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.28	1.34	0.47	0.47	2.40 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ozzie Albies	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.27	1.03	0.68	0.57	2.22 / Over	0.40	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pete Alonso	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.27	0.93	0.65	0.70	2.34 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Juan Soto	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.27	1.01	0.59	0.67	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=83,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan O'Hearn	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.27	1.03	0.55	0.69	2.41 / Over	0.35	season_games=88,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
William Contreras	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.25	1.09	0.52	0.64	2.54 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.22	0.97	0.60	0.65	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel Vargas	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.22	0.92	0.68	0.62	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.22	1.09	0.57	0.55	2.17 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes