MLB Bets 2026-07-23

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	170W–131L–0P	56%	-13.37 u	Last 14 days • 301 settled
Grade A	17W–14L–0P	55%	-0.73 u
Grade B	153W–117L–0P	57%	-12.64 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2159W–1545L–8P	58%	-143.69 u	All-time • 3712 settled
Grade A	222W–160L–0P	58%	+6.03 u
Grade B	1937W–1385L–8P	58%	-149.72 u

39 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Dillon Dingler	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Jonathan Aranda	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Junior Caminero	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Olson	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-461	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-515	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-361	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-474	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	K Prop	Gavin Williams	6.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Earned Run	Gavin Williams	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	2.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Hits Allow	Brandon Pfaadt	5.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Hits Allow	Griffin Canning	5.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Hits Allow	Randy Dobnak	5.5	106	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Walks	Griffin Canning	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-23	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-22	K Prop	Hunter Dobbins	3.5	-170	-	WIN	+0.588	Hunter Dobbins: 5.0 (line 3.5)
2026-07-22	K Prop	Jake Bennett	4.5	-164	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jake Bennett: 4.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	448	57%	-0.29u	60	55%	-2.00u	207	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	395	59%	+15.19u	53	57%	-0.44u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	398	58%	-7.73u	94	54%	-8.48u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	286	60%	-8.84u	69	68%	+7.13u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	108	45%	-15.11u	8	50%	-1.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 448, 14d N 60	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 395, 14d N 53	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 10 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 10/10 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 34 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 7 actionable / 72 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 72 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 755 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 318 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 734 pitcher(s), 3227 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 559 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 10 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 10 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 10 roster team(s), 130 hitter(s) \| 10 SP matchup(s), 494 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 130 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 10 team(s) \| Back-to-back: San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 10 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 846 market side(s) checked \| 846 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 5 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 5 with total odds \| 0 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 72 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 5 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 604 \| batter bats 226 \| batter hand splits 146 \| pitcher HR splits 63 \| batter pitch-type 559 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 87 batter(s) scored \| 5 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	+211	-263	+1.5 (+105)	-1.5 (-127)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+155)	+1.5 (-189)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	+102	-123	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+168	-205	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (-101)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 20 Grade B | 280 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Gavin Williams Over	TWI@GUA	1:11 PM	6.5	8.7	-121	FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 \| best price	33.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (11 play(s))

K Prop - Chris Sale Over

Projection: 8.1Displayed: Over 7.5 +118Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 7Recommended: BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 7

Batter H+R+RBI - Junior Caminero Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Drake Baldwin Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

K Prop - Griffin Canning Over

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.17

Batter Hits - Jordan Walker Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Michael Harris II Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Riley Greene Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Kevin McGonigle Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Rhys Hoskins Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Luis Rengifo Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Myles Straw Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 6.5 (-121) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 33.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gavin Williams: K/9 12.0, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 23.5% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Sweeper (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 116 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .564
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 116 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.7%, L7 21.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 26.7%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 7.25
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +6.3 ppts (recent 36.2% vs season 29.9%, proj adj +3.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (20 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (-117) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 73 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .221 | OPS .559
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 21.9%/73 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Griffin Canning Under 5.5 (-167) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+125	-167	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 4.1 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 11.1%)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .354 | OPS .957
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (+106) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.7%, L7 26.5%, season 23.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/3 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Griffin Canning Over 1.5 (-170) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0331546081479295 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.1 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .354 | OPS .957
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.5%, L7 10.6%, season 8.1%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Bieber Over 1.5 (-129) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8886060442174126 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.2%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.5%, L7 7.4%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/5 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-166) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-166	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.53 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.09, ERA 4.22)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 116 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.7%, L7 21.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 26.7%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-161) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.95 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 2.01)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/9 (22%) | L20 2/9 (22%) | Season 2/9 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.22 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/9 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Under 2.5 (-154) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.68)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 44 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .359 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.2%, L7 18.1%, season 19.5%, BVP 22.7%/44 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 27/34 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-154) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-515) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -515 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -515

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -515 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/99 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 74/99 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-515); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-361) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/89 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 69/89 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-361); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-474) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -474 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -474

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -474 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/95 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 82/95 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-474); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-461) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/95 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 76/95 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-461) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-153) diff 97.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.474 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 55/101 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.5, weak consensus 0% without extra raw cushion, heavy juice -153 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-147) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.393 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/97 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/47 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.91 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/97 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-125) diff 88.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 88.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.428, xSLG 0.551 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/100 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/100 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-156) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.627 (31 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/93 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 49/93 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -156 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-157) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-157	+118	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.313 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/78 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/42 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.76 | Away Batter HRR: 19/36 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 47/78 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.47

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, weak consensus 0% without extra raw cushion, heavy juice -157 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-142) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.53
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.572 (25 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/99 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 61/99 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.53

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-149) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.501 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 58/101 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-120) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -120

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -114 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+14.43/$100
✓ Cover prob 62.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.4% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -120 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Troy Melton (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Randy Dobnak small sample (14 IP) — stats 17% actual / 83% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -3.084u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (280 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 9 play(s) (B 3 | C 6)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (-104) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-109	-119	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-104	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.63K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.1% / under 51.9%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Troy Melton: K/9 9.4, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.56 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 over 5.5
K% trend: support +9.1 ppts (recent 32.7% vs season 23.6%, proj adj +4.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 4.5 (-130) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	4.5	-130	-103	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ian Seymour: K/9 11.2, proj 5.3K over 4.6 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.8% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 44 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .359 | OPS .985
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.2%, L7 18.1%, season 19.5%, BVP 22.7%/44 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/34 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.48 vs season
K% trend: support +7.2 ppts (recent 35.1% vs season 27.9%, proj adj +3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (+118) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 7.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	6.5	-157	+117	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	6.5	-162	+126	-
BetOnline	7.5	+118	-154	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	+118	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.60K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.60
Chris Sale: K/9 10.6, proj 8.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 96 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .261 | OPS .732
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.9%, L7 17.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 28.1%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.83
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Canning Over 3.5 (-167) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -167

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.17 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 4.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-172	+133	-
DK	3.5	-167	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetRivers	4.5	+132	-177	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.0% / under 41.0%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.80
Griffin Canning: K/9 8.6, proj 4.3K over 4.3 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .354 | OPS .957
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 (-150) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+117	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+128	-166	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Randy Dobnak: K/9 6.7, proj 3.1K over 4.6 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 16.8% | put-away% 9.6% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.7%, L7 26.5%, season 23.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Bieber Under 4.5 (-155) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+132	-172	-
BetRivers	4.5	+116	-155	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+121	-155	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.54K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.9, proj 4.0K over 4.9 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.426 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Curveball: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .709
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.2%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 6.5 (+113) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+113	-145	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.2% / under 55.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.8, proj 7.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (39% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 50 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .738
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.5%, season 22.3%, BVP 36.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.53
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +4.8 ppts (recent 32.0% vs season 27.2%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 (-108) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	-108	-117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.34K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.1% / under 50.9%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.7, proj 3.8K over 5.1 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 24.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 73 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .221 | OPS .559
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.6%, active roster 18.7%/6 hitters, BVP 21.9%/73 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/17 (24%) | Season 4/17 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 (-151) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+118	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+132	-170	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.0, proj 3.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Curveball: 21.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .850
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 20.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Over 17.5 (-149) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 19.143 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.09 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 116 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.7%, L7 21.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 26.7%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.4%, L7 7.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.0%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Over 17.5 (-144) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.62 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 50 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.5%, season 22.3%, BVP 36.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.7%, L7 7.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 4.0%/50 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-128) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.321 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.8%, L7 5.3%, season 8.3% (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.33 | Season Avg 18.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/9 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 (-129) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-103	-129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-128	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.866 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 20.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.2%, L7 11.6%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 18.5 (+119) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
DK	18.5	+119	-159	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+130	-178	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.826 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 96 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .261 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.9%, L7 17.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 28.1%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.3%/96 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/18 (28%) | Season 5/18 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-134) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 5.6%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 20.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Over 5.5 (-108) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.2%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/5 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-129) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6711508929490766 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 116 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.7%, L7 21.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 26.7%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.4%, L7 7.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.0%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-177) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3020745953037007 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 50 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.5%, season 22.3%, BVP 36.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.7%, L7 7.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 4.0%/50 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (+106) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.551084648189386 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.3 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 44 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .359 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.2%, L7 18.1%, season 19.5%, BVP 22.7%/44 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.0%, L7 6.2%, season 7.3%, BVP 6.8%/44 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/34 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (-230) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -230

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.483954933528522 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 34.6% / under 65.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 96 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .261 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.9%, L7 17.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 28.1%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.3%/96 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Over 2.5 (-112) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-112	-118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.53 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 5.16)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.2%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/5 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (+117) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	-
DK	2.5	-155	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.24)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.7%, L7 26.5%, season 23.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/3 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-140) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 3.62)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 50 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.4%, L7 20.5%, season 22.3%, BVP 36.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Under 2.5 (-141) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 3.96)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 73 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .221 | OPS .559
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 21.9%/73 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Canning Under 2.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 5.54)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .354 | OPS .957
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (-103) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.50 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.13, ERA 1.82)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 96 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .261 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.9%, L7 17.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 28.1%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Under 2.5 (-143) Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 2.87)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 20.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-268) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (40 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/97 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 36/47 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 72/97 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-270) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+198	-270	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.127 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/99 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 75/99 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-231) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -231

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+171	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.279)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.415 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-270) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.368 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/99 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 71/99 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-270) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Recommended
DK	1.5	+199	-270	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.297)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 33/45 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 68/99 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-270) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.271)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.403 (31 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/34 (32%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/93 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/45 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 66/93 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-234) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.327 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/45 (22%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-256) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+188	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.327 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/37 (40%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/101 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter Hits: 72/101 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-247) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+182	-247	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.308)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.334 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/46 (17%) | L5 5/24 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 66/97 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 48 play(s) (C 48)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-304) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -304 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -304 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 67/101 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-246) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-334) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/77 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/37 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 54/77 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-405) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .489
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 72/98 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-289) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/100 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 76/100 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-194) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-237) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-289) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-308) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -308 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -308 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-313) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-316) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-394) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -394

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-401) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -401 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -401

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -401 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-370) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 65/89 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 65/89 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+114) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 30/73 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/37 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 15/36 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 30/73 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-215) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-338) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brewer Hicklen Under 0.5 (-353) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-494) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -494

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-499) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -499 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -499

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -499 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.0% / Under 79.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-720) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -720 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -720

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -720 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-770) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -770 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -770

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -770 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+132) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/95 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/47 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 15/48 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 38/95 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-198) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -198

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -198 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-208) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-214) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-245) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-325) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-347) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-391) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-470) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -470

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-253) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/96 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 66/96 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-269) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -269 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/88 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/42 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 64/88 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (+131) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/78 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 15/36 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 31/78 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+174) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/101 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/50 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 18/51 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 41/101 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-288) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 75/101 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-253) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/93 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 65/93 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-505) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -505 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -505

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -505 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 20 PA | 6/17 | HR 0 | K% 5.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS .803
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/51 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-355) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .788
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/97 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 74/97 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-252) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/99 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/99 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+172) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +172

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/49 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 40/100 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-227) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-229) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 55/86 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 23/39 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 55/86 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-307) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -307 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -307 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 31 PA | 10/27 | HR 1 | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | OPS 1.044
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/49 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 30/50 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 60/99 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-270) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 64/97 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 64/97 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-222) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/97 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 64/97 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (+118) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .829
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/101 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/51 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 19/50 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 37/101 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 65 play(s) (C 65)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-127) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.418, xSLG 0.590 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 54/98 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-163) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-163	+123	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.474 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/95 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/46 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 50/95 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-104) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.165, xSLG 0.224 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/77 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/37 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 23/40 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 43/77 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-158) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+119	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.480 (25 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 51/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-149) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.607 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 59/100 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-136) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 56/101 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-120) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.515 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-115) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/97 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 51/97 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+114) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.403 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/88 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 40/88 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-112) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.313 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/95 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 46/95 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-161) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-161	+121	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.127, xSLG 0.091 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-113) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.321 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/96 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 49/96 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-115) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.443 (22 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/86 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 18/39 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 43/86 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.387, xSLG 0.443 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/73 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/37 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 16/36 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 36/73 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.393 (69 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 58/101 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+123) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.195, xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+134) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.300 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+119) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.144, xSLG 0.129 (17 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/100 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 56/100 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-146) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.446 (40 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-134) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.317 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-101) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.325 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/89 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 41/89 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-117) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.320 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .382
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-102) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.215 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (-123) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.423 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/101 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 41/101 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+108) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.243 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 13 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.238
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/93 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/93 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 (+101) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+101	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.320 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/88 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 33/88 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+102) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.243 (20 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 52/100 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+121) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.365 (51 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 31 PA | 10/27 | HR 1 | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 45/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.234 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-109) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.181 (30 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-122) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.195 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/95 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter HRR: 57/95 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-172) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.339 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/92 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 under 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 32/44 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter HRR: 53/92 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+136) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.232 (30 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.292 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+132) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.460 (49 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-147) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.296 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/95 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 31/46 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 60/95 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-131) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (-106) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [OUT] Michael Massey -- Injured 60-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Michael Massey -- Injured 60-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brewer Hicklen Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-105) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-102) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-164) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.387, xSLG 0.493 (32 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/89 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 25/41 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 57/89 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-133) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.247 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/75 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 18/35 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 38/75 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-117) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+115) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+115	-154	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+132) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 34 play(s) (C 34)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-111) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.474 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+105) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.627 (31 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/93 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 40/93 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter TB: 53/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (+128) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/77 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 40/77 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+108) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.393 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+118) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.551 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/100 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 44/100 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-198) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+147	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.195 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/95 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/47 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 65/95 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+112) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.590 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-107) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/95 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 43/95 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+110) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.515 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 41/98 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+101) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+101	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.572 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+107) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.480 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-187) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/75 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/40 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 20/35 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 48/75 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+103) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/78 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 12/36 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 32/78 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.607 (43 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+121) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/101 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 43/101 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-134) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.446 (40 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/97 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 31/47 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 64/97 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+151) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+151	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/97 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 40/97 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-184) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.320 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .382
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 67/101 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+127) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.443 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+130) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/89 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 37/89 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.091 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/99 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 39/99 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-174) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.423 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/101 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 68/101 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Under 1.5 (-173) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.181 (30 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/99 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 59/99 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.443 (21 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/73 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/37 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 13/36 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 29/73 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.317 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/99 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/99 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/95 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 34/95 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+153) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+139) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.321 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/96 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 38/96 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+150) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ NRFI — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Gavin Williams: xFIP 3.09, K% 32.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 34.5%, BB% 11.9%, whiff% 35.4%
Taj Bradley: xFIP 3.89, K% 28.9%, BB% 9.4%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 27.2% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.270, K% 28.1%, BB% 14.6%, whiff% 23.2%
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 96)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.57 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90
Park: Progressive Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Gavin Williams: 75% (20 starts) | Taj Bradley: 58% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 42-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.224 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +12.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -4.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane Bieber: xFIP 4.43, K% 19.9%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.426, whiff% 25.0% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (27 PA): xwOBA 0.422, K% 22.2%, BB% 14.8%, whiff% 27.9%
Ian Seymour: xFIP 4.10, K% 29.9%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.297, whiff% 28.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.240, K% 44.0%, BB% 8.0%, whiff% 32.7%
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 94)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.80
Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane Bieber: 40% (5 starts) | Ian Seymour: 86% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.319 vs SP's top pitch) | Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +1.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +7.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-130) edge -6.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Chris Sale: xFIP 3.13, K% 28.9%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 29.9% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.266, K% 30.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 24.7%
Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.44, K% 21.2%, BB% 11.1%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.384, K% 21.1%, BB% 19.2%, whiff% 20.7%
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.85
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
NRFI rate: Chris Sale: 89% (18 starts) | Griffin Canning: 55% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -6.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge +15.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Troy Melton: xFIP 3.90, K% 26.6%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.271, whiff% 26.4% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.321, K% 10.8%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 21.0%
Randy Dobnak: xFIP 4.40, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.359, whiff% 16.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (5 PA): xwOBA 0.286, K% 40.0%, BB% 40.0%, whiff% 33.3%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Troy Melton: 56% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -20.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +29.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge -25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Michael McGreevy: xFIP 4.06, K% 16.8%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.352, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.398, K% 12.5%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 16.8%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.31, K% 17.5%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.174, K% 12.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 14.6%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Michael McGreevy: 84% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 86% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.400 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.329 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -25.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +34.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 1.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 1.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-102) edge 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Michael McGreevy: xFIP 4.06, K% 16.8%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.352, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.398, K% 12.5%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 16.8%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.31, K% 17.5%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.174, K% 12.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 14.6%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Michael McGreevy: 84% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 86% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.400 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.329 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -25.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +34.5%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 35% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Troy Melton: xFIP 3.90, K% 26.6%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.271, whiff% 26.4% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.321, K% 10.8%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 21.0%
Randy Dobnak: xFIP 4.40, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.359, whiff% 16.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (5 PA): xwOBA 0.286, K% 40.0%, BB% 40.0%, whiff% 33.3%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Troy Melton: 56% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -20.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +29.3%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+102) edge 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Chris Sale: xFIP 3.13, K% 28.9%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 29.9% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.266, K% 30.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 24.7%
Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.44, K% 21.2%, BB% 11.1%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.384, K% 21.1%, BB% 19.2%, whiff% 20.7%
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.85
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
NRFI rate: Chris Sale: 89% (18 starts) | Griffin Canning: 55% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -6.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge +15.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Shane Bieber: xFIP 4.43, K% 19.9%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.426, whiff% 25.0% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (27 PA): xwOBA 0.422, K% 22.2%, BB% 14.8%, whiff% 27.9%
Ian Seymour: xFIP 4.10, K% 29.9%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.297, whiff% 28.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.240, K% 44.0%, BB% 8.0%, whiff% 32.7%
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 94)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.80
Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane Bieber: 40% (5 starts) | Ian Seymour: 86% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.319 vs SP's top pitch) | Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +1.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +7.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge -4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Gavin Williams: xFIP 3.09, K% 32.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 34.5%, BB% 11.9%, whiff% 35.4%
Taj Bradley: xFIP 3.89, K% 28.9%, BB% 9.4%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 27.2% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.270, K% 28.1%, BB% 14.6%, whiff% 23.2%
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 96)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.57 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90
Park: Progressive Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Gavin Williams: 75% (20 starts) | Taj Bradley: 58% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 42-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.224 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +12.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -4.0%

▸ Batter HR — 87 play(s) (C 87)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0105
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.195 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/95 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/47 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/48 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 94/95 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Troy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Tommy Troy -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Tommy Troy -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Lourdes Gurriel Jr. -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Lourdes Gurriel Jr. -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adrian Del Castillo Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brewer Hicklen Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [OUT] Michael Massey -- Injured 60-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Michael Massey -- Injured 60-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Outman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0417
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/96 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 92/96 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 4.6% / Under 95.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/95 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 46/46 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 95/95 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0430
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.243 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 13 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.238
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/93 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/47 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 89/93 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0543
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.339 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/92 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 43/44 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 87/92 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0619
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.446 (40 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/97 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 91/97 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 69/75 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 69/75 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/101 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/101 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.215 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0787
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.493 (32 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 82/89 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 82/89 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0808
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.317 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/99 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/45 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 91/99 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0928
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.270 (39 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 20 PA | 6/17 | HR 0 | K% 5.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS .803
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/97 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/97 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (20 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0795
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.403 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 82/88 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 82/88 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.091 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.320 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .382
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 18.0% / Under 82.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1183
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.214 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/93 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 83/93 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1031
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/97 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 87/97 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pavin Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/102 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 91/102 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.129 (17 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/100 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 89/100 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1279
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.443 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/86 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 76/86 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1188
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.423 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.460 (49 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1474
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/95 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 81/95 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1474
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.296 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/95 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 81/95 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1370
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.443 (21 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 64/73 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/37 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 64/73 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.300 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/98 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/98 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1562
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.321 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/96 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/96 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.607 (43 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/100 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 85/100 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.320 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/88 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 76/88 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.480 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.393 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.515 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/98 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 84/98 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.551 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.181 (30 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/99 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 78/99 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2022
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/89 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 73/89 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.234 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/101 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/101 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1895
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/95 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 79/95 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.590 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-800) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.365 (51 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 31 PA | 10/27 | HR 1 | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | OPS 1.044
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/99 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 79/99 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 5:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.572 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/99 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 77/99 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-700) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2308
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 61/78 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 29/36 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 61/78 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2366
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.627 (31 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/93 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 74/93 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2574
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/101 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 78/101 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3247
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/77 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 29/40 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 54/77 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-330) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2871
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.474 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 75/101 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

Game	Time (ET)	Away SP	Home SP	Signal Score	Signal	Signal Result
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	Brandon Pfaadt	Michael McGreevy	8.1/10	YRFI MODEL	C Lean Signal - Derisked

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

MODEL SIGNAL YRFI Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals — Score 8.1/10 C Lean Signal - Derisked

Michael McGreevy: xFIP 4.06, K% 16.8%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.352, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.398, K% 12.5%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 16.8%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.31, K% 17.5%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.174, K% 12.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 14.6%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Michael McGreevy: 84% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 86% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.400 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.329 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -25.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +34.5%

▼ Why no model signal? (4 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	Gavin Williams / Taj Bradley	6.0 / 7.7	4.0 / 7.7	+12.9%	Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	Shane Bieber / Ian Seymour	4.6 / 7.7	5.4 / 7.7	+1.2%	Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 1.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (27 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| Away SP 1st-inn data partial (25 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	Chris Sale / Griffin Canning	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-6.5%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Troy Melton / Randy Dobnak	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-20.4%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.4% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (5 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 87 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=87
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Randy Dobnak (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	39.3%	16.0%	+23.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	-	Griffin Canning (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	38.6%	25.6%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	36.3%	28.9%	+7.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	-	Griffin Canning (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	36.2%	21.7%	+14.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Randy Dobnak (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	35.7%	19.9%	+15.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Spencer Torkelson	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Randy Dobnak (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	34.8%	16.7%	+18.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	33.9%	20.8%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	-	Griffin Canning (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	33.0%	19.9%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.1%	19.9%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	-	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	31.5%	19.9%	+11.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-	Ian Seymour (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	29.9%	21.7%	+8.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	-	Gavin Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	29.8%	23.1%	+6.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.7%	18.4%	+11.3%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	-	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	26.5%	18.4%	+8.2%	88	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	-	Chris Sale (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	26.4%	18.4%	+8.0%	88	-
Strong HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	-	Gavin Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	26.0%	19.1%	+6.9%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	25.5%	16.0%	+9.6%	85	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	-	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	25.4%	15.3%	+10.1%	85	-
Best HR Chance	Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	-	Taj Bradley (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	24.2%	16.0%	+8.3%	81	-
Best HR Chance	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	-	Griffin Canning (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	20.7%	19.1%	+1.6%	69	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	100	90.4%	-944	Junior Caminero, Kazuma Okamoto, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	87.2%	-683	Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Carter Jensen	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	100	86.9%	-661	Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Chase DeLauter, Ryan Jeffers	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	100	85.2%	-576	Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	100	84.5%	-543	Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, Manny Machado	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Dillon Dingler — Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+475) HR chance 39.3% | edge +23.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.237, OPS 0.868, ISO 0.262, TB/G 1.99
Statcast: barrel 11.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.526
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 19/93 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 5.36, K% 11.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.359, xERA 5.60, whiff 16.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.917, ISO 0.292 (269 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.627, xwOBA 0.403 (31 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (+260) HR chance 38.6% | edge +13.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.257, OPS 0.879, ISO 0.262, TB/G 2.07
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.509
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/101 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0354, xFIP 4.53, K% 22.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.340, xERA 4.94, whiff 24.1%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 0.829, K% 40.0% (20 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.923, ISO 0.297 (252 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (+220) HR chance 36.3% | edge +7.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.287, OPS 0.940, ISO 0.269, TB/G 2.12
Statcast: barrel 13.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/101 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0702, xFIP 4.98, K% 17.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.426, xERA 8.54, whiff 25.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.900, ISO 0.271 (322 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.474, xwOBA 0.327 (34 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Michael Harris II — San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (+320) HR chance 36.2% | edge +14.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.190, OPS 0.824, ISO 0.203, TB/G 1.89
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/95 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0354, xFIP 4.53, K% 22.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.340, xERA 4.94, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.844, ISO 0.213 (236 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.474, xwOBA 0.327 (58 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Riley Greene — Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+360) HR chance 35.7% | edge +15.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.148, OPS 0.846, ISO 0.186, TB/G 1.70
Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.6/112.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.478
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 14/101 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 5.36, K% 11.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.359, xERA 5.60, whiff 16.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.908, ISO 0.214 (289 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.480, xwOBA 0.410 (25 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Spencer Torkelson — Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+450) HR chance 34.8% | edge +18.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.188, OPS 0.730, ISO 0.217, TB/G 1.46
Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.8/109.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.415
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 18/101 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 5.36, K% 11.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.359, xERA 5.60, whiff 16.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.717, ISO 0.233 (288 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.234, xwOBA 0.213 (42 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals (+340) HR chance 33.9% | edge +13.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.153, OPS 0.834, ISO 0.238, TB/G 1.83
Statcast: barrel 11.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.3/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.440
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 14/98 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0301, xFIP 4.06, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.35, whiff 19.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.038, OPS 0.748, ISO 0.231 (290 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0332

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Drake Baldwin — San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (+360) HR chance 33.0% | edge +13.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.231, OPS 0.842, ISO 0.199, TB/G 1.83
Statcast: barrel 15.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.5/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.525
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 17/78 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0354, xFIP 4.53, K% 22.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.340, xERA 4.94, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.875, ISO 0.207 (209 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.313, xwOBA 0.239 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	+750	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	+700	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+700	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Masyn Winn	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	+700	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Vinnie Pasquantino	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+500	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Xander Bogaerts	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	+650	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Daulton Varsho	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+450	2.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	+750	2.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Geraldo Perdomo	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	+650	3.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+2000	3.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	Chris Sale	Griffin Canning	1.03	15.5%	44.5%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	5:16 PM	Michael McGreevy	Brandon Pfaadt	0.93	14.8%	43.1%	—	—
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	Gavin Williams	Taj Bradley	0.95	13.1%	39.8%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Troy Melton	Randy Dobnak	0.91	12.8%	39.1%	—	—
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	Shane Bieber	Ian Seymour	0.96	9.6%	32.0%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

10 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	62.9	59.4	72.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	62.7	63.9	66.0	4	Slider (37% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.3	60.8	59.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	55.8	58.5	54.5	4	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	55.0	66.0	46.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	47.2	45.0	49.0	7	Curveball (35% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	45.6	51.9	37.5	7	Slider (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	34.0	37.5	31.5	7	Curveball (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	26.3	26.9	28.0	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 16.8%, put-away 9.6%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	25.8	49.5	0.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.426, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

10 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	17.5%	4.3	5.4	5.2	72	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	L	28.9%	5.2	5.8	6.0	87	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	32.1%	5.4	6.0	6.0	91	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	R	26.6%	5.7	6.1	6.0	96	normal	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	17.3%	4.4	4.3	5.4	74	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.9%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.2%	3.9	4.6	4.4	65	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	16.8%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	29.9%	4.7	4.1	4.6	79	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	19.9%	4.5	4.7	5.1	76	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	18.5	18.8	0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

72 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.84	1.59	0.62	0.62	2.84 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.47	1.17	0.64	0.66	2.96 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.46	1.11	0.61	0.74	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.42	1.08	0.68	0.67	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=78,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.32	1.04	0.57	0.71	2.67 / Over	0.35	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.30	1.12	0.65	0.53	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=77,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.29	1.11	0.48	0.70	2.82 / Over	0.40	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Matt Olson	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.27	1.06	0.63	0.57	2.51 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Michael Harris II	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.24	1.14	0.48	0.61	2.45 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.24	1.07	0.50	0.67	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.18	1.06	0.54	0.58	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.16	1.03	0.60	0.53	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Mauricio Dubon	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.14	1.23	0.46	0.46	2.20 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Riley Greene	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.09	1.06	0.53	0.51	2.35 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kevin McGonigle	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.07	1.09	0.62	0.36	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ Wetherholt	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.02	1.01	0.61	0.40	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.01	1.10	0.48	0.42	1.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	1.99	0.96	0.56	0.47	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Chase DeLauter	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	1.95	1.08	0.35	0.52	2.05 / Over	0.35	season_games=86,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kazuma Okamoto	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	1.94	0.81	0.51	0.62	1.71 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jose Ramirez	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	1.93	1.14	0.39	0.39	2.03 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Josh Bell	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	1.93	0.92	0.44	0.56	1.89 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	1.91	0.91	0.47	0.53	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=88,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ernie Clement	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	1.90	1.13	0.44	0.32	1.85 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	1.90	0.94	0.54	0.42	1.86 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes