| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 176W–135L–0P | 57% | -13.06 u | Last 14 days • 311 settled |
| Grade A | 19W–14L–0P | 58% | +0.69 u | |
| Grade B | 157W–121L–0P | 56% | -13.76 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2145W–1531L–8P | 58% | -139.05 u | All-time • 3684 settled |
| Grade A | 221W–159L–0P | 58% | +6.45 u | |
| Grade B | 1924W–1372L–8P | 58% | -145.50 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.5 | -143 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-05-14 | Batter Total Bases | Byron Buxton | 1.5 | -121 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-05-17 | Batter Total Bases | Shea Langeliers | 1.5 | -138 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-05-20 | Batter Total Bases | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | -131 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-01 | K Prop | Chase Burns | 6.5 | -148 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-08 | Batter Walks | Rodolfo Duran | 0.5 | -368 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-09 | Batter Walks | Tyler Freeman | 0.5 | -440 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-11 | Batter Hits | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | -258 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-11 | Batter Walks | Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 | -434 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-12 | Batter Walks | Ezequiel Tovar | 0.5 | -409 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-13 | Batter Walks | Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 | -431 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-14 | Batter Walks | J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 | -370 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-14 | Batter Walks | Jimmy Crooks | 0.5 | -296 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-15 | Pitcher Walks | Troy Melton | 1.5 | -144 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-19 | Pitcher Earned Run | Cade Cavalli | 1.5 | -172 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-20 | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.5 | -130 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-20 | Pitcher Earned Run | Nathan Eovaldi | 1.5 | -173 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-04 | Pitcher Walks | Tomoyuki Sugano | 1.5 | -186 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | K Prop | Hunter Dobbins | 3.5 | -170 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | K Prop | Martin Perez | 4.5 | -135 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | K Prop | Seth Lugo | 4.5 | -114 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Earned Run | Emerson Hancock | 1.5 | -148 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Earned Run | Keider Montero | 1.5 | -162 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Earned Run | Merrill Kelly | 2.5 | -136 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Earned Run | Seth Lugo | 2.5 | -129 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Griffin Jax | 5.5 | -145 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Hunter Dobbins | 5.5 | -133 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Landen Roupp | 5.5 | -138 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-22 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Peter Lambert | 5.5 | -148 | - | PENDING | - |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | K Prop | Luis Castillo | 6.5 | -157 | - | WIN | +0.637 | Luis Castillo: 3.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-07-21 | K Prop | Framber Valdez | 4.5 | -126 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Framber Valdez: 1.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-07-21 | K Prop | Kumar Rocker | 4.5 | -146 | - | WIN | +0.685 | Kumar Rocker: 6.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-07-21 | K Prop | Luis Castillo | 5.5 | -107 | - | WIN | +0.935 | Luis Castillo: 3.0 (line 5.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 442 | 57% | +0.75u | 59 | 53% | -4.29u | 205 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 388 | 59% | +17.12u | 49 | 55% | -1.51u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 389 | 58% | -3.84u | 91 | 56% | -5.40u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 280 | 60% | -11.07u | 66 | 65% | +3.55u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 108 | 45% | -15.11u | 8 | 50% | -1.09u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Component | Status | Current Usage | Recommendation Impact | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 442, 14d N 59 | Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 388, 14d N 49 | Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0 | Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output. | Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| PitcherAssessment | LIVE | Shared pitcher context; 33 starter assessment(s) emitted. | Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere. | Monitor assessment quality and data gaps. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | LIVE | Free public-data diagnostics; 33/33 assessment(s) scored. | Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations. | Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation. |
| Player Context | LIVE | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics. | Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes. | Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them. |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 8 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0 | No actionable recommendations. | 🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| Batter Hits Runs RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| HRR Component Research | ⛔ PAUSED | Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted. | No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused. | Validate component record before unpausing HRR. |
| AI Review | API ERROR | Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds. | Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project. |
This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant: 751 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant 1st-inn: 317 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitcher arsenal: 730 pitcher(s), 3213 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter pitch-type profiles: 558 player(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Handedness: 33 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates |
| ◴ | LATE DATA | Non-blocking | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 391 hitter(s) | 33 SP matchup(s), 1530 career PA |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter handedness: 391 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted |
| ◴ | LATE DATA | Non-blocking | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Athletics, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Line movement: 262 market side(s) checked | 262 opening snapshot(s) created | 10 with movement |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ⚠ | LIMITED | Non-blocking | F5: disabled |
| ✓ | READY | Available | No-HR model: 17 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR layers: batter Statcast 604 | batter bats 394 | batter hand splits 148 | pitcher HR splits 57 | batter pitch-type 558 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR model: 0 batter(s) scored | 17 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | 1:06 PM | +138 | -167 | +1.5 (-136) | -1.5 (+113) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 1:36 PM | +118 | -142 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | 2:11 PM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+135) | +1.5 (-163) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | +119 | -144 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | -137 | +114 | -1.5 (+109) | +1.5 (-131) | O/U 11.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | -102 | -118 | -1.5 (+156) | +1.5 (-191) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | 3:41 PM | +123 | -148 | +1.5 (-174) | -1.5 (+143) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+161) | +1.5 (-196) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:40 PM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+129) | +1.5 (-156) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:41 PM | +104 | -126 | +1.5 (-199) | -1.5 (+163) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | 7:05 PM | +141 | -171 | +1.5 (-136) | -1.5 (+113) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+151) | +1.5 (-183) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 7:10 PM | +124 | -150 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | -101 | -119 | -1.5 (+161) | +1.5 (-196) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | 8:06 PM | -103 | -117 | -1.5 (+167) | +1.5 (-204) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | -107 | -112 | -1.5 (+157) | +1.5 (-192) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+164) | +1.5 (-200) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -170, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch, expected IP 4.5 below A-grade… | K Prop | Hunter Dobbins Over | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -170 | DK Over 3.5 -170 | exact | 34.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 3.5 | -185 | +140 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | -170 | +132 | SelectedRecommended |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -180 | +140 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | +125 | -175 | Raw BestVerify |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 4.5 | +106 | -135 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +112 | -142 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | +105 | -140 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4.5 | -110 | -118 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | -110 | -120 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | -112 | -114 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | -106 | -120 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | -110 | -125 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +110 | -150 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +111 | -148 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +100 | -140 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +104 | -138 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | -115 | -115 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | -124 | -103 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | -113 | -113 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | -120 | -115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 3.5 | -169 | +129 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 3.5 | -165 | +125 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | -171 | +134 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -162 | +126 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | -165 | +120 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 3.5 | -115 | -115 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | -126 | -101 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -113 | -113 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | -120 | -115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 4.5 | -147 | +115 | SelectedRecommended |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | -160 | +115 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +130 | -170 | - |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +132 | -170 | Raw BestVerify |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 5.5 | -146 | +115 | SelectedRecommended |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -150 | +105 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 6.5 | +145 | -190 | Raw BestVerify |
| FanDuel | 6.5 | +144 | -186 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 3.5 | -169 | +130 | Raw BestVerify |
| Bovada Direct | 3.5 | -170 | +130 | - |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -166 | +130 | - |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | -175 | +125 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | +133 | -170 | SelectedRecommended |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | +115 | -149 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +115 | -150 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +114 | -145 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +114 | -146 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | +110 | -155 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4.5 | -102 | -127 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | -105 | -125 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | -106 | -120 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | -102 | -125 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 3.5 | -119 | -109 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | -123 | -104 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -115 | -111 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | -125 | -110 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | +110 | -145 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | +109 | -138 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +112 | -142 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | +105 | -140 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | -119 | -109 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -125 | -105 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -119 | -107 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -122 | -104 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -120 | -115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +115 | -150 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +118 | -150 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +116 | -148 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | +110 | -155 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | -105 | -125 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | -105 | -121 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | -102 | -125 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | -115 | -120 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4.5 | -135 | +104 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | -135 | +105 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | -146 | +115 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | -136 | +106 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | -140 | +105 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | -125 | -103 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -125 | -105 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -129 | +101 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -122 | -104 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -125 | -110 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +105 | -135 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -101 | -126 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +104 | -132 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | +100 | -135 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | +106 | -137 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +110 | -145 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +109 | -139 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +110 | -140 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | +105 | -140 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | +118 | -154 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +120 | -160 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +120 | -154 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +122 | -156 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | +115 | -160 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4.5 | +103 | -133 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | +110 | -145 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | -103 | -124 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +110 | -140 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | +100 | -135 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | -114 | -114 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -120 | -110 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -113 | -113 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -118 | -108 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -120 | -115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -135 | -105 | - |
| DK | 17.5 | -131 | -101 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 18.5 | -125 | -115 | - |
| DK | 18.5 | -121 | -109 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | +100 | -140 | - |
| DK | 17.5 | +101 | -133 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -130 | -110 | - |
| DK | 17.5 | -126 | -105 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -145 | +105 | Raw BestVerify |
| DK | 17.5 | -140 | +105 | SelectedRecommended |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -140 | +100 | Raw BestVerify |
| DK | 17.5 | -132 | +100 | SelectedRecommended |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -110 | -130 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -108 | -123 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -130 | -110 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -122 | -108 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +100 | -140 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +101 | -134 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 6.5 | +115 | -155 | - |
| DK | 6.5 | +115 | -152 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +105 | -145 | Raw BestVerify |
| DK | 5.5 | +109 | -145 | SelectedRecommended |
No bets meet the threshold today.
No bets meet the threshold today.
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.
No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 64.6 | 58.2 | 74.5 | 4 | Changeup (34% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.3 | 49.6 | 81.0 | 7 | Changeup (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 62.9 | 61.9 | 67.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 60.5 | 43.3 | 78.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 55% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 58.6 | 52.2 | 66.5 | 7 | Changeup (36% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 57.8 | 48.3 | 73.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 57.0 | 59.0 | 57.5 | 4 | Slider (31% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | 57.0 | 52.1 | 64.0 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 55.6 | 43.6 | 68.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 53.7 | 53.1 | 56.0 | 4 | Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.0 | 55.2 | 49.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | 52.9 | 57.1 | 50.5 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | 52.1 | 56.0 | 50.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | 51.8 | 45.4 | 58.5 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.5 | 50.0 | 55.0 | 6 | Slider (26% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.5 | 42.6 | 61.0 | 5 | Slider (24% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | 51.0 | 71.8 | 32.0 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 48.6 | 61.8 | 38.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (44% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | 48.4 | 37.1 | 62.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | 48.3 | 45.5 | 50.5 | 6 | Slider (31% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.3 | 51.7 | 47.0 | 6 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | 45.5 | 51.1 | 42.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 45.0 | 40.3 | 48.0 | 6 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | 43.7 | 51.7 | 33.5 | 5 | Sweeper (46% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 42.7 | 41.1 | 43.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 41.6 | 41.3 | 42.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Dobbins | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | 41.2 | 49.2 | 34.5 | 6 | Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | 39.4 | 45.4 | 31.5 | 6 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | 36.3 | 39.7 | 31.0 | 7 | Sweeper (24% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 36.0 | 32.3 | 37.0 | 5 | Cutter (21% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 34.4 | 37.6 | 30.0 | 7 | Changeup (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 34.4 | 37.4 | 29.0 | 8 | Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 23.8 | 39.0 | 4.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.406, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | R | 15.0% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 4.50 | 95.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 26.0% | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | L | 17.0% | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 80 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 25.7% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 24.0% | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 20.4% | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | R | 17.4% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | L | 19.1% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.9% | 6.0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 101 | deep | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 16.6% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | R | 23.7% | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 78.50 | 21.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 21.0% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 42 | short | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | R | 25.5% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 19.2% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 26.7% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 14.3% | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 97 | normal | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | R | 20.0% | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 109 | deep | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | R | 26.2% | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 17.8% | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 28.7% | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 76 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 24.5% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.2% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 24.7% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | R | 18.1% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | R | 17.1% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | R | 20.4% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | R | 22.7% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 23.2% | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 76 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Hunter Dobbins | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.4% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 72 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 25.8% | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 87 | normal | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | L | 26.4% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 17 | short | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 26.8% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 17 | short | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 29.4% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 91 | normal | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | Seth Lugo Under | San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 14.8 | -2.7 | 15.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.72 <= 3 min |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 10.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min |
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jake Bennett | Jake Bennett Over | Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 6.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brady Singer | Brady Singer Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.3 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Peter Lambert | Peter Lambert Under | Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 4.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Landen Roupp | Landen Roupp Under | San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Today's Signal Board | Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context. |
| Ranked Signals | Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit. |
| Market Confidence | Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers. |
| Signal Promotion Criteria | The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted. |
| Signal Source Matrix | Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed. |
| Data Readiness | Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games. |
| Detail Sections | Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board. |
Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.
| Layer | What it evaluates | Supports when |
|---|---|---|
| Line Fit | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | The available line falls within a model-friendly range. |
| Model Edge | Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line | Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type. |
| Market Alignment | Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books | The market agrees with the model side. |
| Matchup | Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context | Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side. |
| Availability | Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity | Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present. |
| Game Context | Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions | Game conditions support the signal direction. |
| Grade | Model strength | Tier | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Strongest model grade | Best Signal | Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align. |
| B | Strong model grade with caveats | Add Signal | Playable supporting recommendation. |
| C | Thin or lower-confidence model grade | No-Play | Audited but not a standard playable recommendation. |
| D | Weak signal | No-Play | Skip unless another trusted process overrides it. |
| F | Strong evidence against the evaluated side | Fade Signal | Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive. |
Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.
Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.
| Display | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ Featured | Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board. |
| ✅ Best Signal | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| Watch Signal | Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting. |
| Research Only | Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation. |
| Paused | Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture. |
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.
| Usage type | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Active recommendation market | Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules. |
| Held / gated market | Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears. |
| Shadow research | Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations. |
| Diagnostic-only source | Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them. |
| Component | Purpose | Recommendation impact today |
|---|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. | Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch. | Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason. | Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates. |
| HRR Component Research | Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes. | Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold. |
| Player Context | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools. | Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context. |
| AI Review | Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status. |
Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.
| State | Impact | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| READY | Available | The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section. |
| LATE DATA | Non-blocking | The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires. |
| PARTIAL | Non-blocking | The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run. |
| MARKET UNAVAILABLE | Non-blocking | The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally. |
| SOURCE MISSING | Non-blocking unless marked otherwise | The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk. |
| LIMITED | Non-blocking | The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated. |
| BLOCKING | Action needed | A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty. |
The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.
| State | How it is used |
|---|---|
| Pre-lineup | Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data. |
| Confirmed lineup | Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates. |
| No roster coverage | The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data. |
| Artifact | Use it for |
|---|---|
| Main HTML report | Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide. |
| Full audit HTML | Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds. |
| Audit JSON | Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates. |
| Performance report | Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping. |
| Tracker CSV | Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.