MLB Bets 2026-07-21

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	179W–139L–0P	56%	-14.22 u	Last 14 days • 318 settled
Grade A	18W–14L–0P	56%	+0.30 u
Grade B	161W–125L–0P	56%	-14.52 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2129W–1523L–8P	58%	-141.64 u	All-time • 3660 settled
Grade A	218W–158L–0P	58%	+5.19 u
Grade B	1911W–1365L–8P	58%	-146.83 u

42 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Framber Valdez	4.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Kohl Drake	3.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	4.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Luis Castillo	6.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Luis Castillo	5.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	6.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Brandon Sproat	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Parker Messick	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Reynaldo Lopez	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Zach Thornton	2.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Zack Wheeler	2.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Luinder Avila	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Schultz	5.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Zach Thornton	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Sproat	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Chase Burns	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-216	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Framber Valdez	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Jack Perkins	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Luinder Avila	1.5	-206	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Noah Schultz	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Walks	Zach Thornton	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-20	K Prop	Ronel Blanco	3.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Ronel Blanco: 8.0 (line 3.5)
2026-07-20	K Prop	Jacob deGrom	6.5	-127	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jacob deGrom: 6.0 (line 6.5)
2026-07-20	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-123	-	WIN	+0.813	Emmet Sheehan: 6.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	436	57%	-1.87u	62	50%	-7.53u	201	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	385	59%	+16.78u	53	57%	-0.33u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	382	58%	-3.46u	96	56%	-5.20u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	272	60%	-11.07u	66	62%	+0.49u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	108	45%	-15.11u	10	40%	-3.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 24 total candidate(s); season N 436, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 385, 14d N 53	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 751 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 317 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 730 pitcher(s), 3213 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 558 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 23 team(s), 207 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 391 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 872 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 207 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 7 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 312 market side(s) checked \| 312 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 13 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 604 \| batter bats 397 \| batter hand splits 148 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 558 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 13 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-193)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	-108	-111	-1.5 (+152)	+1.5 (-184)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+117	-141	+1.5 (-176)	-1.5 (+145)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+101	-122	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-103	-117	-1.5 (+155)	+1.5 (-189)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-114	-106	-1.5 (+132)	+1.5 (-160)	O/U 13.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-111	-109	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-182)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+101	-121	-1.5 (+166)	+1.5 (-203)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 17 Grade B | 63 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -149, expected IP 4.9 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Kumar Rocker Over	SOX@RAN	8:06 PM	4.5	5.5	-149	BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	22.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	K Prop	Luis Castillo Under	RED@MAR	9:41 PM	5.5	4.3	-107	FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 \| best price	21.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (1 play(s))

K Prop - Matthew Liberatore Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 4.93

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 (-149) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+121	-
BetRivers	4.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.02K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kumar Rocker: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 35.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.3%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 25.9% vs season 20.5%, proj adj +2.7%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -149, expected IP 4.9 below A-grade leash -- A risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Luis Castillo Under 5.5 (-107) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	5.5	-124	-108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.6% vs 17% min; cushion -1.19K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Luis Castillo: K/9 7.8, proj 4.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 23.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luis Castillo: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .918
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.2%, L7 19.9%, season 24.8%, top-6 22.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.7% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (17 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Kohl Drake Over 3.5 (-143) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	-
DK	3.5	-143	+112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 50.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.78K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 28.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.8% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-127) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	4.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	Recommended
DK	4.5	-127	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.17K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.8% / under 47.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.5, proj 5.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nick Mahrley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 34 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .367
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 29.4%/34 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.6% (5/6); lineup K% 21.7% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs LHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (-132) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-125	-103	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-132	+104	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-136	+106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 24.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.56K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.7, proj 8.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.254 | top pitch: Split-Finger (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Erich Bacchus — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 13.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .801
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 123 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
K% trend: support +8.3 ppts (recent 38.7% vs season 30.4%, proj adj +4.1%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -132 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.56K, diff 24.0%, books 83%)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Schultz Over 1.5 (-164) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2970875686702397 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.5 IP (BB% 11.2%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.2%, L7 8.3%, season 8.7% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Sproat Over 1.5 (-145) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2168761941784854 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.3 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.6%, season 8.4% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 (-216) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+160	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.9355506306755182 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.2 IP (BB% 4.3%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 36.0% / under 64.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 8.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 8.0%/100 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-216); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Luinder Avila Over 1.5 (-206) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 63.0% / Under 37.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-206	+153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0598302166552394 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.52 over 4.3 IP (BB% 12.2%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 63.0% / under 37.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.0%, top-6 21.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.4%, L7 8.0%, season 6.6% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ Heavy juice (-206) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-148) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.043926101302512 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.3 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.0 outs/5.3 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.2%, L7 19.5%, season 23.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.0%, L7 8.6%, season 8.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Framber Valdez Over 1.5 (-166) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-166	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0363061544233005 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 34 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .367
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 29.4%/34 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 10.8%, L7 11.0%, season 11.1%, BVP 8.8%/34 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (5/6); lineup K% 21.7% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-166) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (-175) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 2.5 -175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+131	-175	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.751442372603265 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 29.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.3 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.467
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 21.9%, season 19.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.8%, L7 10.4%, season 8.5% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 22/24 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-175) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (-134) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.913332942321137 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, L7 10.6%, season 8.4% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Sproat Over 1.5 (-174) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-174	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.68)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ Heavy juice (-174) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 (-159) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.31 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.83, ERA 2.24)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 13.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/15 (80%) | Season 12/15 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-155) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.10 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 2.81)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 32 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.3%, L7 17.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 28.1%/32 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-162) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.26, ERA 3.81)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 (-147) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 3.45)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reynaldo López: 86 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.6%, L7 15.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 16.3%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/22 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-119) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (63 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (A 1 | B 2 | C 3)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-155) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 (-139) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+104	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 9.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 47 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 5.5 (-119) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 34 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .367
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 29.4%/34 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (5/6); lineup K% 21.7% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+108) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 101 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .372 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 17.8%/101 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.9% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (+100) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 6.1 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 5.0%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .792
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 24.0%, L7 27.3%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 23.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Under 6.5 (-120) Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-120	-
DK	6.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.36 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.72, BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.2%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (5/6); lineup K% 20.9% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 16 play(s) (A 1 | C 15)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-199) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+149	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.999148136168842 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 37.6% / under 62.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs David Peterson: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.089
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 25.2%, L7 25.7%, season 23.2%, top-6 23.4%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 12.4%, L7 6.9%, season 9.4%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-199); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-177) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-177	+132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.850183594938778 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.7 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 32 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.3%, L7 17.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 28.1%/32 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.7%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.1%/32 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-176) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-176	+132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8488720665222094 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 13.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 12.4%, L7 8.2%, season 10.4%, BVP 13.8%/123 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tyler Mahle Over 1.5 (-118) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8459861393503094 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.9 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 47 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 9.3%, L7 5.4%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.3%/47 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reynaldo Lopez Over 1.5 (-115) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8148036892160986 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reynaldo López: 86 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.6%, L7 15.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 16.3%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.2%, L7 11.4%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.8%/86 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kohl Drake Over 1.5 (+106) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8088333980363793 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 28.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.8% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.9%, L7 6.1%, season 9.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Under 1.5 (-205) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+152	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1918518398719826 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 6.1 IP (BB% 5.0%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 37.1% / under 62.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .792
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 24.0%, L7 27.3%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 9.8%, L7 7.4%, season 7.9%, BVP 0.0%/24 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 23.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Over 1.5 (-151) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7796553868326104 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.2%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 10.3%, L7 8.9%, season 8.9%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (5/6); lineup K% 20.9% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-177) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-177	+133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.767217855643297 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.3%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.9%, L7 8.3%, season 8.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walbert Urena Over 2.5 (+107) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.890149283219541 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.56 over 5.0 IP (BB% 13.0%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.2%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.5%, L7 10.2%, season 8.6% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-118) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.139570093462791 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.52 over 4.0 IP (BB% 12.2%)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tatsuya Imai: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 16.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.2% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.9%, L7 7.1%, season 9.0% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-194) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1616251738933894 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.3 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.2% / under 61.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.3%, L7 10.0%, season 8.8% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/25 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Liberatore Over 1.5 (-160) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6588526830340369 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Liberatore: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .522
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.1%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 11.0%, L7 8.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-168) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6239012668795954 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.3 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Walker Buehler: 105 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .281 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.5%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 21.9%/105 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.1%, L7 7.4%, season 7.9%, BVP 7.6%/105 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Luis Castillo Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.543313697461003 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luis Castillo: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.2%, L7 19.9%, season 24.8%, top-6 22.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 (-123) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-107	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4672583827764325 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 101 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .372 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 17.8%/101 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.4%, L7 7.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 5.0%/101 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.9% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 19 play(s) (B 4 | C 15)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tyler Mahle Under 4.5 (-163) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	4.5	+130	-169	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+127	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tyler Mahle: K/9 7.8, proj 4.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Split-Finger (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barrett — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 47 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.87
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-128) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	4.5	+107	-141	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+100	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
David Peterson: K/9 7.0, proj 4.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.3% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nick Mahrley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs David Peterson: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.089
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 25.2%, L7 25.7%, season 23.2%, top-6 23.4%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.4% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Walker Buehler Over 3.5 (-169) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125	-
BetRivers	3.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-169	+132	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.33K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.3% / under 40.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Walker Buehler: K/9 8.7, proj 3.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Emil Jimenez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Walker Buehler: 105 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .281 | OPS .719
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 105 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.5%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 21.9%/105 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.26
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 6.5 (-156) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	6.5	-164	+125	-
BetRivers	6.5	-150	+114	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-156	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.50K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Chase Burns: K/9 10.2, proj 7.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.0 outs/5.3 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Slider (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.2%, L7 19.5%, season 23.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.56
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (+121) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	4.5	+118	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+121	-154	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.5, proj 5.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.2%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 (-149) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-162	-
DK	4.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.84K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 7.9, proj 3.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Emil Jimenez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reynaldo López: 86 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .272 | OPS .697
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 86 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.6%, L7 15.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 16.3%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/22 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (-102) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-101	-128	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	-105	-127	-
DK	5.5	-102	-126	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.98K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.5% / under 52.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Parker Messick: K/9 8.6, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nestor Ceja — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 32 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .700
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.3%, L7 17.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 28.1%/32 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.79
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (+108) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+125	-164	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Sproat Over 4.5 (-151) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	-
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-151	+118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-172	+134	-
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Sproat: K/9 10.6, proj 5.1K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
K% trend: support +8.3 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 24.7%, proj adj +4.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 100 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 3.5 (-151) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-154	+118	-
BetRivers	3.5	-141	+106	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-151	+118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Luinder Avila: K/9 8.1, proj 3.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barrett — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 20.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.0%, top-6 21.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 108 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Noah Schultz Under 4.5 (-134) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.42K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Noah Schultz: K/9 8.2, proj 4.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.371 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (-104) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	3.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	-104	-122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.32K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.1% / under 51.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.0, proj 3.8K over 4.5 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/25 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 11.5% vs season 17.3%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 (-126) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	-101	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.8, proj 5.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Conroy — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 101 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .372 | OPS .889
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 101 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 17.8%/101 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 16.9% (5/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-111) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	3.5	-106	-125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	-115	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.26K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.0, proj 3.2K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.5% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .544
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.2%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.2% (5/6); lineup K% 20.9% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.48
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 10.7% vs season 15.8%, proj adj -2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 4.5 (-101) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	+100	-132	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jack Perkins: K/9 11.1, proj 4.8K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.467
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 21.9%, season 19.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 (-151) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.93 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	-159	+118	-
DK	4.5	-151	+118	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 8.7, proj 4.8K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 37.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Liberatore: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .522
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.1%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tatsuya Imai Over 5.5 (+113) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	5.5	+117	-157	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.16K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tatsuya Imai: K/9 11.6, proj 5.7K over 4.3 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tatsuya Imai: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 16.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.2% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.2% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +7.0 ppts (recent 34.0% vs season 27.0%, proj adj +3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-124) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	5.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 7.2, proj 5.4K over 6.3 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 19.3% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Erich Bacchus — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .792
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 24.0%, L7 27.3%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 23.1% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.56
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 23.2% vs season 18.3%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 (-109) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.3, proj 4.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Conroy — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .721
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.1% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 19.1% vs season 25.0%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 4 play(s) (B 1 | C 3)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (-104) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-135	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-106	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.374 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.22 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 34 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .367
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 29.4%/34 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 10.8%, L7 11.0%, season 11.1%, BVP 8.8%/34 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (5/6); lineup K% 21.7% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Luis Castillo Under 17.5 (-115) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-125	-115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-115	-115	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 14.845 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luis Castillo: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.2%, L7 19.9%, season 24.8%, top-6 22.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.80 | Season Avg 14.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+120) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 15.543000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.79 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 101 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .372 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 17.8%/101 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.4%, L7 7.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 5.0%/101 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.9% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (-139) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 17.33 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 16.5 +104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	16.5	-144	+104	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	17.5	-118	-115	Recommended
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	+105	-145	-
DK	17.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.45 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 17.33 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 8.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 8.0%/100 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (B 3 | C 15)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Luinder Avila Under 2.5 (-119) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	-
DK	2.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.79 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.64, ERA 4.45)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.0%, top-6 21.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.43 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.80)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 47 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Under 2.5 (-132) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-101	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 3.82)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 34 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .367
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 29.4%/34 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (5/6); lineup K% 21.7% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-152) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.11 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.60, ERA 2.94)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.0 outs/5.3 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.2%, L7 19.5%, season 23.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-116) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-130	-
DK	3.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.42 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 5.41)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .118 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.2%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (5/6); lineup K% 20.9% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (+100) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.76 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.92, ERA 5.66)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-138) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 3.24)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.2%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Over 2.5 (+122) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.79 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 7.28)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs David Peterson: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.089
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 25.2%, L7 25.7%, season 23.2%, top-6 23.4%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-129) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.56 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.63, ERA 3.86)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/25 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-139) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.88 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 5.31)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tatsuya Imai: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 16.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.2% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kohl Drake Under 2.5 (-139) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 28.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.8% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Under 2.5 (-108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 2.76)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .792
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 24.0%, L7 27.3%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 23.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 (+102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 5.45)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 101 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .372 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 17.8%/101 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.9% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-159) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 5.28)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.3%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.11 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 6.81)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.467
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 21.9%, season 19.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Luis Castillo Over 2.5 (+104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.77)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luis Castillo: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.2%, L7 19.9%, season 24.8%, top-6 22.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-111) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-119	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.17 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 6.75)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Walker Buehler: 105 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .281 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.5%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 21.9%/105 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 (-111) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 5.37)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Liberatore: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .522
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.1%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	71.4	68.2	80.5	6	Split-Finger (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	65.7	66.9	69.0	3	Slider (51% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	61.9	59.9	66.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rivera	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	60.6	45.7	76.0	3	Changeup (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Kendry Rojas	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	60.3	65.1	56.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	58.3	53.9	67.0	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.5	51.5	66.5	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	56.2	59.6	55.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	55.4	48.9	62.0	4	Sweeper (42% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	54.0	58.6	48.5	6	Changeup (47% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	53.7	53.1	56.0	4	Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	49.1	50.8	53.5	5	Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	48.4	47.4	49.0	5	Split-Finger (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	48.3	45.5	50.5	6	Slider (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	47.7	63.4	35.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	46.4	47.1	45.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	46.0	43.3	49.0	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	46.0	52.7	38.5	6	Curveball (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	45.9	51.3	40.5	5	Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	45.8	51.6	39.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	45.4	44.8	43.5	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	44.3	46.1	44.0	4	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	44.0	48.0	38.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	43.9	39.4	50.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	42.8	41.9	44.0	7	Curveball (29% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	41.0	46.1	32.5	8	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	40.4	46.1	31.5	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	35.8	38.3	28.5	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	32.9	41.4	22.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	27.0%	4.2	4.4	4.8	70	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	R	21.5%	4.2	4.4	4.5	70	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	24.0%	6.5	5.7	6.0	109	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eduardo Rivera	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	23.6%	2.8	3.0	4.7	47	short	full	76.00	24.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	L	16.6%	4.1	4.7	4.6	69	short	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	L	20.6%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	22.00	78.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.6%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	L	23.9%	6.1	5.9	6.0	102	deep	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	R	14.0%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	L	19.1%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	R	28.4%	4.3	4.0	4.1	72	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.0%	4.8	4.3	4.5	80	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	21.5%	5.1	5.3	5.3	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.0%	6.2	6.4	6.4	104	deep	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	R	15.5%	4.4	4.5	4.6	74	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	R	27.6%	4.3	4.7	4.6	72	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Kendry Rojas	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	L	24.5%	2.4	3.0	4.6	40	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	22.4%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.5%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	33.3%	5.9	6.2	6.1	99	normal	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	R	18.1%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.6%	4.2	4.7	4.6	70	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	R	20.2%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	R	19.4%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	L	21.6%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.9%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.4%	4.7	4.8	4.8	79	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.7%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	L	24.6%	1.8	2.4	4.2	30	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

4/4 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Luis Castillo	Luis Castillo Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	14.8	-2.6	15.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes