MLB Bets 2026-07-20

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	176W–124L–0P	59%	-1.66 u	Last 14 days • 300 settled
Grade A	16W–14L–0P	53%	-1.26 u
Grade B	160W–110L–0P	59%	-0.40 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2115W–1504L–8P	58%	-132.11 u	All-time • 3627 settled
Grade A	216W–157L–0P	58%	+4.63 u
Grade B	1899W–1347L–8P	59%	-136.74 u

41 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	6.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Jacob deGrom	6.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Payton Tolle	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Ronel Blanco	3.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Braxton Ashcraft	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristopher Sanchez	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	George Kirby	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Jeffrey Springs	2.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Joe Ryan	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Leahy	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Wacha	3.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Ronel Blanco	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Weathers	2.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Andrew Alvarez	5.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cristopher Sanchez	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tanner Bibee	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor McDonald	6.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-187	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-19	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	-149	-	WIN	+0.671	Joey Cantillo: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-157	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nathan Eovaldi: 2.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Casey Mize	5.5	-149	-	LOSS	-1.000	Casey Mize: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Hunter Greene	7.5	118	-	LOSS	-1.000	Hunter Greene: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	6.5	111	-	WIN	+1.110	Joey Cantillo: 7.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	430	57%	+0.57u	63	51%	-5.98u	198	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	380	59%	+16.40u	52	58%	+0.40u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	367	59%	+1.66u	90	61%	+2.87u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	266	60%	-9.72u	71	62%	+0.12u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	107	46%	-14.11u	9	44%	-2.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 30 total candidate(s); season N 430, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 15 total candidate(s); season N 380, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 107, 14d N 9	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 750 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 316 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 729 pitcher(s), 3204 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 557 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 392 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1286 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 392 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Athletics, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 324 market side(s) checked \| 324 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 604 \| batter bats 398 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 557 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	-121	+100	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-101	-120	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+143)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+122	-147	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+150)	+1.5 (-182)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+167	-205	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (-101)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-104	-116	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 11.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+110	-132	+1.5 (-180)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 12.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+162)	+1.5 (-197)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 20 Grade B | 62 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134, active roster BVP damage OPS 0.955/AVG 0.400 over 11 PA	K Prop	Ronel Blanco Over	MAR@AST	8:11 PM	3.5	5.0	-134	BetOnline Over 3.5 -133 \| best price	42.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP K% 16.1% over 31 PA, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch	K Prop	Jacob deGrom Over	SOX@RAN	8:06 PM	6.5	8.3	-127	DK Over 6.5 -127 \| exact	28.2%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan Over	DOD@PHI	7:11 PM	5.5	7.0	-123	FanDuel Over 5.5 -120 \| best price	26.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Jacob Misiorowski Over

Projection: 10.2Displayed: Over 9.5 +118Market line: majority 8.5 | avg 8.67Recommended: BetOnline Over 8.5 -135 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 8.67 | selected line 9.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Selected line 9.5 is split from majority 8.5 / avg 8.67

K Prop - Jameson Taillon Over

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.17

K Prop - Jose Soriano Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.1

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Janson Junk Over

Projection: 6.1Displayed: Over 5.5 +124Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 5Recommended: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 3.5 (-134) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-133	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 42.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.50K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .400 | OPS .955
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134, active roster BVP damage OPS 0.955/AVG 0.400 over 11 PA -- A risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 (-127) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-143	+110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-127	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-158	+124	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 28.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.83K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.8% / under 47.2%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob deGrom: K/9 11.1, proj 8.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 34.8% | put-away% 25.4% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 31 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .930
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.5%/6 hitters, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.78
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP K% 16.1% over 31 PA, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-123) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	5.5	-124	-107	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-106	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.7, proj 7.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .105 | OPS .296
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.6%, L7 26.9%, season 23.7%, active roster 22.6%/7 hitters, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.6% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (20 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (-133) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+105	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 39.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.1% / under 53.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mitch Bratt: K/9 6.9, proj 2.1K over 3.7 IP (season 3.0 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 13.4% | put-away% 7.9% | xwOBA 0.382 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 28.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.9% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 6.5 (-148) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-156	+122	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+117	-152	-
DK	6.5	+116	-148	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.3% vs 17% min; cushion -1.19K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Payton Tolle: K/9 9.4, proj 5.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .318 | OPS .739
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 26.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 (-123) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	6.5	-125	-107	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-123	-103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.1% / under 47.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 10.9, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 41.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 6.74
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 27.8%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-187) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-187	+140	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 22.041 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 25.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.10 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .971
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.5%, L7 22.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.1%, L7 10.6%, season 8.4% (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.10 | Season Avg 18.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.60 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor McDonald Under 6.5 (-157) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 29.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-157) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Alvarez Under 5.5 (+100) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 4.1 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/13 (92%) | Season 12/13 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-151) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-151	+114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.10 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 4.8%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 126 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .244 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.8%/126 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-157) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Over 1.5 (-167) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .400 | OPS .955
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Over 1.5 (-153) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.51 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 3.53)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 72 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .271 | OPS .720
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 30.6%/72 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Under 2.5 (-167) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.91 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.46, ERA 2.53)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 101 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .192 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-139) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.13 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.07, ERA 3.74)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 31 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .930
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 23.8%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Under 2.5 (-168) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 3.27)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .318 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 26.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 (-151) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.74 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.61, ERA 3.60)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 126 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .244 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.8%/126 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-154) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.07 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 7.91)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-154) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-148) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.17 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 3.72)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-143) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.28, ERA 3.96)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .191 | OPS .653
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Under 2.5 (-120) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 4.96)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .105 | OPS .296
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.6%, L7 26.9%, season 23.7%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Under 3.5 (-163) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.01)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .283 | OPS .857
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-162) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 2.92)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 27.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (62 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 5 | C 19)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 3.5 (-128) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-128	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 22.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 30 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .707
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, BVP 16.7%/30 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — JP Sears Over 3.5 (-150) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-150	+117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.6% / under 43.4%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
JP Sears: K/9 8.3, proj 3.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs JP Sears: 101 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .665
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 101 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 14.8%/101 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.25 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 (-124) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.8, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 25.7%, L7 27.4%, season 25.2%, active roster 25.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 23.7% vs season 19.3%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — George Kirby Over 6.5 (-135) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 6.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-145	+110	-
DK	6.5	-135	+106	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 8.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
George Kirby: K/9 8.6, proj 7.0K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 72 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .271 | OPS .720
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 30.6%/72 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 25.6% vs season 21.5%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 (+118) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 8.5 -135 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 9.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 8.67 | selected line 9.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books | 9.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 8.5 -135 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 9.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	8.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	8.5	-145	+110	-
FanDuel	8.5	-142	+112	-
theScore Bet	8.5	-150	+105	-
DK	9.5	+118	-151	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 10.2K vs line 9.5; DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.69K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 13.7, proj 10.2K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 37.8% | put-away% 32.5% | xwOBA 0.224 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .971
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.3%, season 22.0%, active roster 19.2%/7 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 9.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.70 | Season Avg 9.28
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 9.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 9.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 9.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jameson Taillon Over 3.5 (-157) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.17 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	3.5	-175	+125	-
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	4.5	+132	-172	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 41.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.45K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.80
Jameson Taillon: K/9 8.0, proj 4.9K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .564
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.8%, L7 26.2%, season 23.2%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 (-107) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	6.5	-108	-122	-
DK	6.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.53K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 9.8, proj 8.0K over 6.1 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.9% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 126 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .244 | OPS .664
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 126 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.8%/126 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 7.20
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.0 ppts (recent 22.4% vs season 27.4%, proj adj -2.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor McDonald Over 3.5 (+120) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	3.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+120	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trevor McDonald: K/9 6.7, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.3% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.0%/6 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.15
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.3 ppts (recent 12.3% vs season 18.6%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 4.5 (-153) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+120	-
DK	4.5	-153	+120	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.78K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -0.75
Jose Soriano: K/9 9.1, proj 5.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 18.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.9%, L7 20.1%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Freeland Over 4.5 (-105) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	-105	-121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.78K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Freeland: K/9 8.5, proj 5.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 31 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 26.4%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters, BVP 22.6%/31 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-123) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -123

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	-103	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Erick Fedde: K/9 6.2, proj 3.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 18.0% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 10.8% | AVG .156 | OPS .429
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.16
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-156) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	3.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+120	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Martinez: K/9 5.6, proj 3.1K over 5.6 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 81 PA | K% 9.9% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .329 | OPS .990
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 81 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, BVP 9.9%/81 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.44
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (+106) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 8.6, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .451
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 70 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 25.2% vs season 20.5%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joe Ryan Under 6.5 (+100) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	6.5	-135	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	6.5	-129	-104	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joe Ryan: K/9 10.8, proj 6.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 36.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 101 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .192 | OPS .535
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 101 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.40
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (+125) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+124	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.9, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.329
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.3%, L7 20.4%, season 23.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 22.8% vs season 18.4%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (+104) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 9.6, proj 4.7K over 4.2 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.6%/8 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 (-122) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.1% / under 51.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .385 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.7%, L7 24.5%, season 21.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 (-119) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 8.1, proj 3.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.42
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (+101) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	4.5	-129	-104	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-129	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.13K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.3, proj 4.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Cutter (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Cutter: 19.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .520
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 13.9% vs season 19.0%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 111 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (-122) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-104	-122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-120	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.1% / under 51.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Janson Junk: K/9 7.1, proj 3.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 30 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .822
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 10.0%/30 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Weathers Under 6.5 (-141) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -141

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	6.5	-103	-129	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+120	-154	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.7, proj 6.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 23.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .191 | OPS .653
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 (-103) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jack Flaherty: K/9 10.6, proj 5.6K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 100 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .209 | OPS .682
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 23.0%/100 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Under 7.5 (-135) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 7.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 7.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	7.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+110	-145	-
DK	7.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+110	-140	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 1.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 13.6, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 35.6% | put-away% 24.9% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Changeup (57% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 23.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 96 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .247 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 16.7%/96 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.20 | Season Avg 8.71
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (+105) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.5, proj 4.6K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 19.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .283 | OPS .857
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+102) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 18.5 +102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	18.5	+102	-135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	18.5	+102	-136	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.584 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 126 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .244 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.8%/126 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.0%, L7 8.5%, season 10.4%, BVP 4.8%/126 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 19.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-158) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 17.5 -158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-158	+119	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.47 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .283 | OPS .857
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.5%, L7 9.2%, season 6.7%, BVP 3.2%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-173) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-173	+129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.255 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 96 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .247 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 16.7%/96 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.4%, L7 7.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 16.7%/96 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Under 17.5 (-127) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-105	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.896 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.28 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 76)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 76
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .191 | OPS .653
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.1%, L7 8.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Over 18.5 (+127) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	-
DK	18.5	+127	-169	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+136	-188	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.133 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 72 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .271 | OPS .720
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 30.6%/72 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 2.8%/72 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 18.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-141) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-154	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.525000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 13.7%, L7 8.5%, season 10.1% (adj 1.16x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Joe Ryan Under 18.5 (-162) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 18.17 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 17.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+134	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	-
DK	18.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.674 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 18.17 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 101 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .192 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.8%/101 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.9%, L7 6.4%, season 9.7%, BVP 5.9%/101 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 17/20 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 16.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (+102) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.737000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.6%, L7 7.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 5.1%/78 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (-109) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.450999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 9.8%, season 8.1%, BVP 4.3%/70 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — George Kirby Over 5.5 (+122) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 5.3%)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 72 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .271 | OPS .720
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 30.6%/72 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 10/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Erick Fedde Under 5.5 (-127) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 10.8% | AVG .156 | OPS .429
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Janson Junk Over 5.5 (+124) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	5.5	+124	-166	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 6.6%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 30 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 10.0%/30 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 6.5 (-114) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-120	-
DK	6.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .283 | OPS .857
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 5.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — JP Sears Under 5.5 (-125) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs JP Sears: 101 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 14.8%/101 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/4 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Under 5.5 (-155) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 6.6%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .191 | OPS .653
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 (-127) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.24 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.61, BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (-112) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 4.4%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 81 PA | K% 9.9% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .329 | OPS .990
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, BVP 9.9%/81 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Over 5.5 (+124) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+124	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 30 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .707
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, BVP 16.7%/30 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (+104) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-139	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Under 6.5 (+107) Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-145	+105	-
DK	6.5	-143	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.29 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 4.5%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 31 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.4%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.6%/31 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-102) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 3.64, ERA 4.47)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-111) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.67 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.10, ERA 1.72)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .971
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.5%, L7 22.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Flaherty Under 2.5 (+110) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 3.82)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 100 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .209 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.0%/100 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-154) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.21 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.98)
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 3.0 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 28.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.9% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (+107) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.79, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.329
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.3%, L7 20.4%, season 23.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 (-127) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.2 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.60 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 6.95)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 31 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.4%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.6%/31 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (-141) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.40 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.34)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor McDonald Under 2.5 (+110) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 5.22)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-145) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.60 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 6.09)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.8%, L7 26.2%, season 23.2%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Over 2.5 (-102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 5.46)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 30 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 10.0%/30 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-151) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 4.37)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.1%, season 20.3% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (+101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 3.87)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 78 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.4%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Over 2.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 2.91)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 81 PA | K% 9.9% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .329 | OPS .990
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, BVP 9.9%/81 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Over 2.5 (+104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.62 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 5.83)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 30 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .707
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, BVP 16.7%/30 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — JP Sears Over 2.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.79 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.78)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs JP Sears: 101 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 14.8%/101 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.75 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.72 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 5.90)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .385 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.7%, L7 24.5%, season 21.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (+102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.70 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 3.83)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 10.8% | AVG .156 | OPS .429
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (+101) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.25 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.62, ERA 2.31)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 96 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .247 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 16.7%/96 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	87.4	91.7	95.5	5	Curveball (48% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 37.8%, put-away 32.5%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	74.3	79.9	75.5	6	Changeup (57% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	67.4	78.7	63.0	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 34.8%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	66.6	70.6	68.0	3	Changeup (45% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	62.7	56.5	72.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 48% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	62.4	62.4	66.0	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	59.9	56.2	68.0	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	58.0	63.7	54.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	55.9	55.9	56.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	55.7	68.0	46.5	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	53.5	62.8	45.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	51.7	56.6	47.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	51.3	48.7	56.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	50.4	45.5	55.0	6	Sweeper (27% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	49.7	54.1	47.0	5	Slider (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	49.2	44.2	54.5	5	Slider (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	48.0	45.5	50.0	6	Changeup (30% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.4	47.0	42.5	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	45.4	35.4	53.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	45.2	44.0	46.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	45.0	50.2	41.5	6	Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	43.0	43.3	40.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	40.9	53.7	29.0	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	40.6	50.3	30.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	39.0	33.3	42.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	39.0	47.5	28.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	37.9	45.3	31.0	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	37.3	34.7	41.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	20.3	18.5	16.5	5	Slider (44% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 13.4%, put-away 7.9%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	L	17.8%	3.0	3.0	4.9	50	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.0 IP/start
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	19.4%	4.3	5.1	5.0	72	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	R	18.6%	4.8	5.7	5.5	80	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.2%	5.8	5.9	6.0	97	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	25.6%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.1%	4.3	5.2	5.0	72	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	R	15.5%	4.5	4.9	4.9	76	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	L	19.9%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.2%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	L	21.3%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	R	27.0%	4.8	4.6	4.6	80	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.0%	6.1	6.3	6.2	102	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	23.6%	4.8	5.5	5.4	80	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	27.2%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	R	18.0%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	R	40.6%	6.6	6.2	6.2	111	deep	full	95.50	4.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	29.2%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	21.9%	3.9	5.2	5.0	65	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	27.3%	4.5	5.4	5.2	76	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	25.7%	5.6	6.4	6.2	94	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	R	29.4%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	L	21.1%	4.6	4.9	5.2	77	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	R	16.8%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.9%	6.4	6.1	6.2	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.9%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	15.2%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	R	30.9%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	37.0%	5.9	5.8	6.0	99	normal	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	L	24.1%	3.9	4.4	4.8	65	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	22.0	4.5	25.9%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.2	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.5	2.0	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	76	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Joe Ryan	Joe Ryan Under	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	18.5	17.7	-0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	17.5	-0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes