MLB Bets 2026-07-19

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	171W–118L–0P	59%	-0.19 u	Last 14 days • 289 settled
Grade A	15W–12L–0P	56%	-0.44 u
Grade B	156W–106L–0P	60%	+0.25 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2094W–1485L–8P	59%	-128.59 u	All-time • 3587 settled
Grade A	214W–154L–0P	58%	+5.85 u
Grade B	1880W–1331L–8P	59%	-134.43 u

47 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Casey Mize	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Hunter Brown	6.5	120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Hunter Greene	7.5	118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Shane McClanahan	4.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	K Prop	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	7.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cam Schlittler	2.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Gilbert	1.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Robert Gasser	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane McClanahan	2.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Shota Imanaga	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	2.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eduardo Rodriguez	6.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Foster Griffin	6.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nolan McLean	5.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Feltner	5.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Shane McClanahan	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Outs	Hunter Brown	17.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Outs	Hunter Greene	17.5	-111	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Outs	Nathan Eovaldi	17.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Outs	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	17.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Walks	Nolan McLean	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-19	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews	2.5	-180	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-18	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti	5.5	-136	-	WIN	+0.735	Spencer Arrighetti: 6.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-18	K Prop	Matthew Boyd	4.5	-160	-	LOSS	-1.000	Matthew Boyd: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-18	K Prop	Griffin Canning	3.5	-122	-	WIN	+0.820	Griffin Canning: 4.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	422	57%	+0.95u	59	51%	-6.20u	193	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	371	59%	+16.46u	46	59%	+0.77u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	355	59%	+3.63u	83	65%	+8.17u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	259	60%	-9.18u	66	64%	+1.64u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	103	46%	-13.54u	6	33%	-2.52u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 30 total candidate(s); season N 422, 14d N 59	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 371, 14d N 46	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 4 actionable / 17 total candidate(s); season N 103, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 748 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 312 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 727 pitcher(s), 3193 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 555 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 950 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 354 market side(s) checked \| 354 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 601 \| batter bats 396 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 63 \| batter pitch-type 555 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	12:16 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees	12:36 PM	-119	-101	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	-120	+100	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+105	-127	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians	1:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros	2:11 PM	+101	-122	-1.5 (+166)	+1.5 (-203)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+143)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+142	-172	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Athletics	4:06 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+108)	+1.5 (-130)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels	4:08 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+103)	+1.5 (-124)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	+101	-122	-1.5 (+161)	+1.5 (-197)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+148	-180	+1.5 (-150)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

4 Grade A | 25 Grade B | 76 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149	K Prop	Joey Cantillo Over	PIR@GUA	1:41 PM	5.5	8.5	-149	FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 \| best price	55.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Hunter Greene Over	RED@ROC	3:11 PM	7.5	9.3	+118	FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 \| alt rescue	24.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi Over	RAN@BRA	1:36 PM	5.5	8.0	-157	FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 \| best price	45.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Casey Mize Over	TIG@ANG	4:08 PM	5.5	6.7	-149	FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 \| best price	22.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Hunter Greene Over

Projection: 9.3Displayed: Over 7.5 +118Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.7Recommended: FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.7

K Prop - Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.7

K Prop - Eury Perez Over

Projection: 7.2Displayed: Over 6.5 +114Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.9Recommended: FanDuel Over 5.5 -164 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.9 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.9

Pitcher Outs - Sonny Gray Over

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 18

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (-149) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
DK	5.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 55.1% vs 17% min; cushion +3.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joey Cantillo: K/9 10.2, proj 8.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.1%, L7 25.8%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
K% trend: support +7.8 ppts (recent 32.2% vs season 24.4%, proj adj +3.9%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Hunter Greene Over 7.5 (+118) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 7.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-147	+114	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	6.5	-146	+114	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	-155	+110	-
DK	7.5	+118	-151	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.4K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 24.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.85K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Hunter Greene: K/9 12.1, proj 9.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.9% | put-away% 29.9% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 35.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 31 PA | K% 45.2% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS .778
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.2%, L7 21.9%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.5%/8 hitters, BVP 45.2%/31 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.50 | Season Avg 9.50
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 7.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 (-157) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 5.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-156	+121	-
BetRivers	5.5	+300	-480	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-150	+118	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 45.3% vs 17% min; cushion +2.49K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.7, proj 8.0K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.0% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 72 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .185 | OPS .482
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 19.4%/72 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.67
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
K% trend: support +8.2 ppts (recent 34.1% vs season 25.9%, proj adj +4.1%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Casey Mize Over 5.5 (-149) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 22.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 9.0, proj 6.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 75 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .157 | OPS .528
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.7%, L7 26.5%, season 25.2%, active roster 25.5%/6 hitters, BVP 24.0%/75 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (25 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 (-155) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-159	+122	-
BetRivers	4.5	-148	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-155	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 32.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane McClanahan: K/9 8.4, proj 6.0K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 31 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .100 | OPS .262
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.0%, L7 20.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.7%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.82
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.48K, diff 32.9%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Hunter Brown Under 6.5 (+120) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-156	+121	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-154	+120	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-156	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.55K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.2% / under 42.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Brown: K/9 8.8, proj 4.9K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 22.7% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Curveball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .180 | OPS .636
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.2%, L7 24.4%, season 24.3%, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.57 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 under 6.5
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 20.0% vs season 25.5%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 7.5 (-157) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 6.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	6.5	-122	-109	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	6.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.65K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.7, proj 5.9K over 6.4 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 18.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .233 | OPS .633
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.8%, L7 26.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.24
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Hunter Brown Under 17.5 (-121) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
DK	17.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 13.312000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 23.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, weight 70%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .180 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.2%, L7 24.4%, season 24.3%, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 12.2%, L7 10.7%, season 10.2%, BVP 12.1%/58 PA (adj 1.17x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.14 | Season Avg 15.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/7 under 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 (-165) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.516 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .233 | OPS .633
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.8%, L7 26.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 12.5%, L7 6.5%, season 10.2%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/17 (88%) | Season 15/17 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.10 | Season Avg 19.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 (-156) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-156	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.958 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 72 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .185 | OPS .482
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.2%, BVP 19.4%/72 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.2%, L7 8.7%, season 8.0%, BVP 6.9%/72 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 18.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Hunter Greene Under 17.5 (-111) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 14.392 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 20%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s), weight 13%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.91 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 31 PA | K% 45.2% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 21.2%, L7 21.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 45.2%/31 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.9%, L7 8.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 9.7%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.50 | Season Avg 15.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/2 under 17.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 6.5 (-150) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.9 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.70 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 0.95, BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 27.9%, L7 26.9%, season 22.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/19 (84%) | Season 16/19 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 6.5 (-150) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.4 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 32.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 8.4%)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.7%, L7 21.5%, season 20.3%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/19 (90%) | Season 17/19 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane McClanahan Under 5.5 (-153) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 31 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .100 | OPS .262
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.0%, L7 20.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.7%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nolan McLean Under 5.5 (-127) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.3%, L7 23.4%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-106) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.34 over 3.4 IP (WHIP 1.84, BB% 11.6%)
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.92x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 25.7%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 (-117) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 59 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .278 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 25.2%, L7 23.0%, season 24.9%, BVP 15.2%/59 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Young Over 1.5 (-121) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.082306271884528 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 41 PA | K% 12.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .882
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.2%/41 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.4%, L7 10.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.9%/41 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-182) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.066810792319172 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.7 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.3%, L7 23.4%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.9%, L7 8.8%, season 7.9%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Zebby Matthews Under 2.5 (-180) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9441849059863223 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 22.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 11.6%, L7 9.6%, season 11.0% (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-180); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-145) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.51 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 4.81)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.3%, L7 21.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/9 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Over 1.5 (-158) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 3.94)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-160) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.33 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 3.10)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.013
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.3%, L7 21.3%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 2.5 (-139) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.53 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.04, ERA 2.30)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 20.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane McClanahan Under 2.5 (-160) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 2.83)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 31 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .100 | OPS .262
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.0%, L7 20.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.7%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (-162) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.27 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.75, ERA 3.21)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 75 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .157 | OPS .528
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.7%, L7 26.5%, season 25.2%, BVP 24.0%/75 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-121) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.15 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.42, ERA 3.10)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.3%, L7 23.4%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 2.5 (-157) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.97 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 3.30, ERA 2.99)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .233 | OPS .633
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.8%, L7 26.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-151) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.01 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 2.22)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.0%, L7 18.4%, season 18.9%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (76 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 23 play(s) (B 4 | C 19)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Paul Skenes Under 7.5 (-139) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 7.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 7.1 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 7.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	-166	+128	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-130	Recommended
DK	7.5	+109	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 22.3% vs 17% min; cushion -1.67K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Paul Skenes: K/9 10.8, proj 5.8K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.258 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 25.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 7.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (-112) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-112	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.3, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.4%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.91
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-129) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.9, proj 4.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.06
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 (-140) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trey Yesavage: K/9 8.1, proj 5.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.4%, L7 24.5%, season 23.7%, active roster 23.4%/6 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 5.5 (+105) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 24.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.33K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 9.2, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 27.9%, L7 26.9%, season 22.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 24.5%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 3.5 (+126) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +126

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-161	+126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.47K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Lopez: K/9 7.9, proj 3.0K over 3.6 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Cutter: 25.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 25.7%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 4.5 (-153) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+108	-
BetRivers	4.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.4, proj 5.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .639
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.0%, L7 18.4%, season 18.9%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 27.0% vs season 22.3%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-102) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 4.5 +205; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	4.5	+205	-286	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.7, proj 5.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .409 | OPS 1.273
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.4%, L7 25.8%, season 22.3%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/18 (28%) | Season 5/18 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.22
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 6.5 (+114) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -164 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.9 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -164 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 6.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-167	+128	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	5.5	-164	+128	Recommended
DK	6.5	+114	-145	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	6.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.75
Eury Perez: K/9 10.3, proj 7.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .118 | OPS .319
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 23.2%, season 21.1%, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.94
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
K% trend: support +5.1 ppts (recent 32.3% vs season 27.2%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 4.5 (+102) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.3, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Cutter: 11.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.3%, L7 21.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.78 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Burke Over 5.5 (-117) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-103	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-117	-109	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.36K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Burke: K/9 10.6, proj 5.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 19.2%, L7 15.4%, season 19.7%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season
K% trend: support +8.0 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 26.4%, proj adj +4.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Under 3.5 (-171) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+133	-171	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+124	-158	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.5% / under 59.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andre Pallante: K/9 5.9, proj 3.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 47 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .341 | OPS .815
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.2%, L7 22.1%, season 19.7%, BVP 14.9%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Alan Rangel Under 3.5 (+123) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +123

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Alan Rangel: K/9 9.4, proj 3.4K over 4.0 IP (season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 23.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Alan Rangel: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.5%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, active roster 19.1%/7 hitters, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/5 (0%) | L20 0/5 (0%) | Season 0/5 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.40
Prop trend: K L10: 0/5 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 4.5 (-125) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Johnson: K/9 7.6, proj 4.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 12.0% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 46.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.8%, L7 26.3%, season 23.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/9 (22%) | L20 2/9 (22%) | Season 2/9 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.78 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: K L10: 2/9 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 (-163) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	-
DK	3.5	-163	+127	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.08K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 5.9, proj 3.6K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 15.7%, L7 21.5%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.3%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.16
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 (-121) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-105	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.6, proj 5.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .985
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 (-163) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+127	-163	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.1, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Changeup (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 59 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .278 | OPS .691
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 59 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 25.2%, L7 23.0%, season 24.9%, BVP 15.2%/59 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-124) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-110	-120	-
DK	6.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-108	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.6, proj 6.6K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.013
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 18.3%, L7 21.3%, season 20.7%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.26
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — German Marquez Under 3.5 (-151) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+118	-151	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-150	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
German Marquez: K/9 6.5, proj 3.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.5% | put-away% 12.9% | xwOBA 0.362 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .279 | OPS .893
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.3%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.3%/7 hitters, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.11 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Young Under 4.5 (+100) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 7.5, proj 4.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 41 PA | K% 12.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .882
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 12.2%/41 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 (+114) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +114

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	6.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-145	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.2, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.270 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 20.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.85
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 33.3% vs season 29.2%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 5.5 (-114) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.05K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.2, proj 5.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 78 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .134 | OPS .410
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.5%, L7 21.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 21.8%/78 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.74
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 6.5 (-146) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	-
DK	6.5	+115	-146	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.04K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nolan McLean: K/9 10.6, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 23.5% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.3%, L7 23.4%, season 23.5%, active roster 22.5%/7 hitters, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.58
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Under 17.5 (-114) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 14.995000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 8.8%, L7 11.1%, season 9.1%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 15.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.50 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.50 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 17.5 (-154) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.666999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.54 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 27.9%, L7 26.9%, season 22.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.1%, L7 6.3%, season 9.3% (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-114) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.374999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .172 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.3%, L7 23.4%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.9%, L7 8.8%, season 7.9%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-115) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 15.875999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 41 PA | K% 12.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .882
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.2%/41 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.4%, L7 10.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.9%/41 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 (+118) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 19.963999999999995 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 7.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 112)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 112
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.013
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.3%, L7 21.3%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.5%, L7 9.7%, season 6.7%, BVP 5.9%/34 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.20 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-141) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.675 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.04 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 20.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.3%, L7 6.3%, season 10.4% (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-176) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.6% / Under 40.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-176	+131	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.654999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.6% / under 40.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.0%, L7 18.4%, season 18.9%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.4%, L7 5.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 11.1%/45 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 16.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (+153) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +153

Selected market: Over 63.1% / Under 36.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-209	+153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.428 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.91 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 63.1% / under 36.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 7.7%, L7 9.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 0.0%/19 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Over 17.5 (-139) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.292 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 11.6%, L7 9.6%, season 11.0% (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-140) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.953999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.53 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.7%, L7 21.5%, season 20.3%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.3%, L7 7.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Over 17.5 (-119) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.826 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.80 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 19.2%, L7 15.4%, season 19.7%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 6.9%, L7 8.8%, season 7.5%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 16.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Robbie Ray Under 17.5 (-123) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.349999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 78 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .134 | OPS .410
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.5%, L7 21.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 21.8%/78 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.9%, L7 9.6%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Over 17.5 (-214) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -214

Selected market: Over 63.7% / Under 36.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-230	+160	-
DK	17.5	-214	+157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.571 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.19 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 63.7% / under 36.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.0%, L7 7.6%, season 9.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-117) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.0%, L7 18.4%, season 18.9%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Over 5.5 (+113) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.43, BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 41 PA | K% 12.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .882
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.2%/41 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Greene Under 5.5 (-109) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 8.8%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 31 PA | K% 45.2% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 21.2%, L7 21.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 45.2%/31 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 1/2 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (-120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Over 5.5 (+101) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 47 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .341 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.2%, L7 22.1%, season 19.7%, BVP 14.9%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hunter Greene Over 1.5 (+126) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0246715020302197 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 31 PA | K% 45.2% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 21.2%, L7 21.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 45.2%/31 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.9%, L7 8.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 9.7%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/2 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Feltner Over 1.5 (-180) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8113649791256587 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 59 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .278 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 25.2%, L7 23.0%, season 24.9%, BVP 15.2%/59 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.2%, L7 6.8%, season 9.6%, BVP 8.5%/59 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Johnson Over 1.5 (-163) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8034772682218136 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.0% / under 42.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.8%, L7 26.3%, season 23.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.6%, L7 8.0%, season 9.4% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/9 (22%) | L20 2/9 (22%) | Season 2/9 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.44 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/9 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Over 1.5 (-188) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7771096988958701 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 3.4 IP (BB% 11.6%)
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.1% / under 38.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 25.7%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.2%, L7 11.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Burke Over 1.5 (+113) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7498023710353239 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 19.2%, L7 15.4%, season 19.7%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 6.9%, L7 8.8%, season 7.5%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Under 1.5 (-103) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2514567555910283 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.0%, L7 7.6%, season 9.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 (-177) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.278889893053166 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 7.7%, L7 9.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 0.0%/19 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Alan Rangel Over 1.5 (-157) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7073204282863548 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.0 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Alan Rangel: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.1%, L7 10.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-176) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.669160431140317 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 6.2 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .233 | OPS .633
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.8%, L7 26.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 12.5%, L7 6.5%, season 10.2%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trey Yesavage Over 2.5 (+104) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7313834928682588 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.53 over 5.0 IP (BB% 12.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.4%, L7 24.5%, season 23.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 6.7%, season 8.9% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hunter Brown Over 2.5 (+118) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.687833631301761 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.9 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .180 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.2%, L7 24.4%, season 24.3%, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 12.2%, L7 10.7%, season 10.2%, BVP 12.1%/58 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.14 | Season Avg 3.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/7 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-183) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -183 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.323631149324852 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .118 | OPS .319
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 23.2%, season 21.1%, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.4%, L7 12.5%, season 10.8%, BVP 2.8%/36 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Casey Mize Under 1.5 (-156) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.394284604193714 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 75 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .157 | OPS .528
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.7%, L7 26.5%, season 25.2%, BVP 24.0%/75 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.6%, L7 7.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.7%/75 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (+108) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.419718541225399 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.3%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 20.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.3%, L7 6.3%, season 10.4% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Foster Griffin Under 1.5 (-186) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4204553053725406 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.8 IP (BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.1% / under 60.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 27.9%, L7 26.9%, season 22.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.1%, L7 6.3%, season 9.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (+121) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5771955465432652 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 31 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .100 | OPS .262
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.0%, L7 20.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 38.7%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.5%, L7 9.8%, season 8.1%, BVP 3.2%/31 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Over 2.5 (+120) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5751040518864863 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.4%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.1%, L7 25.8%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.3%, L7 7.3%, season 9.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5220004156262377 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 17.0%, L7 18.4%, season 18.9%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.4%, L7 5.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 11.1%/45 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Alan Rangel Under 2.5 (-114) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 4.26)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Alan Rangel: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.4%, season 22.0%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (+108) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.00 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.54, ERA 2.19)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 27.9%, L7 26.9%, season 22.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-131) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.19, ERA 4.37)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 16.7%, L7 27.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-154) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.33 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.80, ERA 2.82)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 19.2%, L7 15.4%, season 19.7%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-164) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.64 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 2.86)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.1%, L7 25.8%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-158) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.66 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 2.94)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .118 | OPS .319
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 23.2%, season 21.1%, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Under 2.5 (-154) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.28)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .180 | OPS .636
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.2%, L7 24.4%, season 24.3%, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-135) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.29)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Over 2.5 (+108) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 3.68)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 41 PA | K% 12.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .882
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.2%/41 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Greene Over 2.5 (-128) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 5.51)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 31 PA | K% 45.2% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .269 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 21.2%, L7 21.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 45.2%/31 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-106) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.05 over 3.4 IP (xFIP 5.36, ERA 7.63)
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 25.7%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trey Yesavage Under 2.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.90, ERA 3.79)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.4%, L7 24.5%, season 23.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 4.08)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 47 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .341 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.2%, L7 22.1%, season 19.7%, BVP 14.9%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (-118) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.90, ERA 2.58)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 78 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .134 | OPS .410
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.5%, L7 21.5%, season 23.1%, BVP 21.8%/78 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 2.5 (+123) Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +123

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.70 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 4.24)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 59 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .278 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 25.2%, L7 23.0%, season 24.9%, BVP 15.2%/59 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Under 2.5 (-106) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.88 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.52, ERA 4.84)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.8%, L7 26.3%, season 23.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.78 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (+102) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 2.08)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .136 | OPS .376
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.7%, L7 21.5%, season 20.3%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	68.2	60.4	78.5	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers	64.7	61.6	72.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	64.6	63.3	70.5	5	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox	62.7	61.7	65.5	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	60.6	60.0	67.5	6	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	60.2	70.1	53.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	59.0	65.7	54.5	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins	57.6	60.2	57.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	57.1	79.4	39.0	4	Slider (54% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 29.9%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants	56.8	63.0	56.0	6	Slider (37% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	56.8	56.7	62.0	7	Curveball (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Alan Rangel	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	55.6	47.7	62.0	4	Changeup (39% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	55.4	55.1	56.5	5	Curveball (27% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	55.0	52.5	59.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	54.4	61.6	49.5	6	Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Athletics	53.6	54.2	55.5	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	52.6	57.8	52.5	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins	51.3	44.4	55.5	5	Cutter (27% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	51.1	46.1	59.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	49.1	39.7	57.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Washington Nationals	48.6	37.2	54.5	5	Cutter (24% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	47.2	47.5	48.0	5	Slider (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers	46.8	51.2	43.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	45.4	50.3	42.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	44.8	43.9	36.5	4	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	44.4	46.9	42.5	6	Curveball (42% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres	43.8	50.1	37.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	41.7	49.3	34.5	6	Changeup (49% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	36.2	39.4	35.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	33.7	35.5	26.5	5	Slider (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.362, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	16.4%	6.4	6.0	6.1	107	deep	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Washington Nationals	L	18.2%	2.7	4.2	3.9	45	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.7 IP/start
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers	R	19.8%	4.0	4.9	4.7	67	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	R	19.1%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	23.9%	6.6	5.6	5.8	111	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins	L	23.1%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	29.2%	6.3	5.4	6.0	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	R	31.0%	5.0	5.2	5.5	84	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	27.1%	5.8	5.0	6.0	97	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	R	18.4%	5.3	4.9	5.0	89	normal	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	24.6%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	R	22.5%	4.8	5.0	5.2	80	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres	L	21.4%	5.0	5.3	5.2	84	short	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.0%	5.0	4.7	5.1	84	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	R	25.2%	6.6	6.5	6.5	111	deep	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	29.0%	5.3	5.3	5.3	89	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins	L	21.6%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	R	19.8%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	28.0%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	30.6%	5.8	5.9	6.0	97	normal	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Alan Rangel	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	R	24.2%	3.8	3.7	5.0	64	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.7%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	78.50	21.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	R	16.7%	4.6	4.8	4.9	77	short	full	26.50	73.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	L	19.7%	6.6	5.6	5.8	111	deep	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants	R	27.3%	6.7	6.0	6.1	112	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	15.5%	5.9	5.6	5.6	99	normal	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	L	22.6%	5.1	5.1	5.1	86	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	R	28.8%	6.2	6.2	6.2	104	deep	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.3%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Athletics	L	25.8%	6.4	5.8	6.0	107	deep	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

17/17 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros	17.5	13.3	-4.2	23.9%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.2	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees	17.5	21.5	4.0	22.9%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	21.0	3.5	19.8%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Hunter Greene	Hunter Greene Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	14.4	-3.1	17.8%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Under	San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	15.0	-2.5	14.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.50 <= 3 min
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	Washington Nationals @ Athletics	17.5	19.7	2.2	12.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	19.4	1.9	10.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	20.0	1.5	7.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.7	1.2	6.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.7	1.1	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Over	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Over	Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Robbie Ray	Robbie Ray Under	San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.3	-0.1	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes