MLB Bets 2026-07-18

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	176W–115L–0P	60%	+7.40 u	Last 14 days • 291 settled
Grade A	13W–13L–0P	50%	-2.99 u
Grade B	163W–102L–0P	62%	+10.39 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2082W–1468L–8P	59%	-119.46 u	All-time • 3558 settled
Grade A	212W–153L–0P	58%	+5.29 u
Grade B	1870W–1315L–8P	59%	-124.76 u

47 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Griffin Canning	3.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Ian Seymour	4.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Matthew Boyd	4.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Max Meyer	5.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Shane Bieber	4.5	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	K Prop	Taj Bradley	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryan Woo	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Dustin May	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Griffin Canning	3.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	JT Ginn	3.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Max Meyer	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Rhett Lowder	3.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Bieber	2.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Zack Littell	3.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Brandon Pfaadt	5.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dustin May	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Griffin Canning	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	MacKenzie Gore	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor Rogers	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Zack Littell	5.5	106	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Walks	Bryan Woo	1.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Walks	Griffin Canning	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Walks	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Walks	Max Meyer	1.5	-205	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-18	Pitcher Walks	Trevor Rogers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-17	K Prop	Griffin Jax	4.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Griffin Jax: 6.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-133	-	WIN	+0.752	Michael King: 4.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-17	K Prop	Griffin Jax	5.5	124	-	WIN	+1.240	Griffin Jax: 6.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	414	57%	+2.01u	54	52%	-4.84u	190	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	365	60%	+20.81u	51	63%	+4.83u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	346	60%	+6.11u	81	67%	+10.37u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	253	60%	-7.94u	68	63%	+1.09u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	103	46%	-13.54u	6	33%	-2.52u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 414, 14d N 54	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 365, 14d N 51	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 31 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 31/31 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 103, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 748 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 312 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 727 pitcher(s), 3193 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 555 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 31 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 21 team(s), 189 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 31 SP matchup(s), 1078 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 189 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 11 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 264 market side(s) checked \| 264 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 13 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 601 \| batter bats 396 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 64 \| batter pitch-type 555 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 13 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies	3:06 PM	+142	-172	+1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-108	-111	-1.5 (+152)	+1.5 (-185)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-117	-103	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 12.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+164)	+1.5 (-200)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves	4:11 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+150)	+1.5 (-183)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros	4:11 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	-106	-114	-1.5 (+150)	+1.5 (-182)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals	4:11 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+138)	+1.5 (-167)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees	8:09 PM	-106	-113	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	8:09 PM	+130	-157	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-115	-104	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels	10:08 PM	-199	+163	-1.5 (-118)	+1.5 (-102)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 19 Grade B | 49 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured	K Prop	Griffin Canning Over	PAD@ROY	4:11 PM	3.5	5.0	-122	DK Over 3.5 -122 \| exact	43.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.9%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -147, lineup BVP K% 16.5% over 115 PA	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo Over	MET@PHI	3:06 PM	6.5	8.2	-147	FanDuel Over 6.5 -136 \| best price	25.7%	✓✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti Over	ORI@AST	4:11 PM	5.5	6.9	-148	FanDuel Over 5.5 -138 \| best price	25.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

K Prop - Grayson Rodriguez Under

Projection: 4.2Displayed: Under 4.5 +118Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.1Recommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -164 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.1

K Prop - Dustin May Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.9

Pitcher Outs - Bryan Woo Under

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 18

Pitcher Earned Runs - Tomoyuki Sugano Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shane Drohan Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Griffin Canning Over 3.5 (-122) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetRivers	3.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 43.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Griffin Canning: K/9 8.6, proj 5.0K over 4.5 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Canning: 25 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .533
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 23.2%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 28.0%/25 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.4% (5/6); lineup K% 22.4% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.23
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (-147) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-150	+110	-
BetRivers	6.5	-143	+108	-
DK	6.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-136	+106	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 25.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.67K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 12.1, proj 8.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.2% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Sweeper (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 115 PA | K% 16.5% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .287 | OPS .780
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 115 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.1%, L7 18.7%, season 21.9%, top-6 17.9%, BVP 16.5%/115 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.9% (5/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.16
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
K% trend: support +8.4 ppts (recent 37.8% vs season 29.4%, proj adj +4.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 17.9%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -147, lineup BVP K% 16.5% over 115 PA -- A risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 (-148) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
BetRivers	5.5	-152	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-138	+108	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 25.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 9.3, proj 6.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 34 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .206 | OPS .529
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 35.3%/34 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (19 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Shane Bieber Under 4.5 (+103) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.22K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.7, proj 3.3K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/4 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.477 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 18.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 23 PA | K% 4.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.565
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.2%, L7 24.4%, season 23.7%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.25 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: K L10: 4/4 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Max Meyer Over 5.5 (-117) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-145	+105	-
BetRivers	5.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Meyer: K/9 9.5, proj 7.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Derek Thomas — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 22.2%/9 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.46K, diff 26.6%, books 100%)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-160) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 63 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .510
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 17.3%, L7 22.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 19.1%/63 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (-123) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .562
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 24.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6); lineup K% 18.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zack Littell Under 5.5 (+106) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.045
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 22.7%, L7 30.2%, season 23.1% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-132) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 40.5% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .638
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 40.5%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 19.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Griffin Canning Under 5.5 (-146) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Canning: 25 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .533
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 23.2%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 28.0%/25 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.4% (5/6); lineup K% 22.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Max Meyer Over 1.5 (-205) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -205 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 63.0% / Under 37.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -205 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.33386416993991 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 63.0% / under 37.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 22.2%/9 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 11.5%, L7 11.6%, season 10.7%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-205) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Under 1.5 (-247) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.9175687643281407 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.7%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 33.3% / under 66.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.83x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .276 | OPS .690
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 18.1%, L7 19.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.1%, split 6.5%, L7 8.7%, season 6.6%, BVP 0.0%/29 PA (adj 0.83x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-247) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-137) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.0204982557031288 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.17 over 5.6 IP (BB% 4.0%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .161 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 11.4%, L7 7.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.0%/60 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.93x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Griffin Canning Over 1.5 (-186) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.969608132354635 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 4.3 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Canning: 25 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .533
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 23.2%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 28.0%/25 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.9%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.0%/25 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.4% (5/6); lineup K% 22.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-186) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (-150) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9671834249884033 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 40.5% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .638
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 40.5%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.8%, L7 10.7%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.8%/42 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 19.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-151) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9345006964333364 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.2% / under 43.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs MacKenzie Gore: 87 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 23.0%/87 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.9%, L7 8.8%, season 8.0%, BVP 9.2%/87 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (5/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.93x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Over 1.5 (-161) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 4.72)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .276 | OPS .690
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 18.1%, L7 19.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Canning Under 3.5 (-164) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.03 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 5.68)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Canning: 25 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .533
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 23.2%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 28.0%/25 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.4% (5/6); lineup K% 22.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 3.5 (-162) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.51)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.1%, L7 19.8%, season 21.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/21 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Over 2.5 (-132) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-132	-101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.97 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 6.12)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 23 PA | K% 4.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.565
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.2%, L7 24.4%, season 23.7%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.75 | Season Avg 3.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Meyer Under 2.5 (-168) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.16 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 2.33)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 22.2%/9 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Littell Under 3.5 (-159) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-160	-
DK	3.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.55 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 5.12, ERA 4.50)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.045
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 22.7%, L7 30.2%, season 23.1% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (49 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 16 play(s) (A 1 | B 4 | C 11)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 4.5 (-173) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	4.5	-157	+117	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	-173	+135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 30.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.39K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.8% / under 40.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ian Seymour: K/9 10.8, proj 5.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.0%, L7 20.7%, season 21.9%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/33 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.33 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 32.1% vs season 27.8%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B

⚠ K final QC: 8/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -173, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.39K, diff 30.8%, books 100%)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Davis Martin Over 3.5 (-117) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Davis Martin: K/9 7.3, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .273 | OPS .678
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.2%, L7 15.7%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.6 ppts (recent 12.5% vs season 22.1%, proj adj -4.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 4.5 (-144) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 4.5 -132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetRivers	4.5	-132	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.7% / under 44.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Drohan: K/9 8.3, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Derek Thomas — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 19.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 16.8% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.53
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-122) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetRivers	5.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.78K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.7, proj 6.3K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 19.8%, L7 26.0%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 (-121) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetRivers	3.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 7.4, proj 3.8K over 4.7 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian Walsh — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 19.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .562
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 24.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6); lineup K% 18.4% (6/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/16 (25%) | Season 4/16 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (+108) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-150	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
JT Ginn: K/9 8.4, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.1%, L7 19.8%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (+109) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
BetRivers	5.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-140	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.87K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 8.9, proj 4.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .276 | OPS .690
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 18.1%, L7 19.4%, season 20.6%, active roster 18.2%/6 hitters, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (+106) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetRivers	4.5	+107	-141	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trevor Rogers: K/9 7.1, proj 5.0K over 5.7 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 12.9% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 36.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 40.5% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .638
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 40.5%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 19.1% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 21.6% vs season 18.1%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 (-103) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 8.5 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-125	-
BetRivers	8.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	8.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 9.5K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.97K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.4, proj 9.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Changeup (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 35.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .161 | OPS .610
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.3%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.4%/6 hitters, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.85
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 8.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
K% trend: support +6.4 ppts (recent 36.4% vs season 30.0%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Under 5.5 (-159) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-162	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+124	-159	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Manaea: K/9 8.6, proj 5.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Sweeper (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 39.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 146 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .303 | OPS .901
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 146 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.8%, L7 23.4%, season 23.5%, top-6 23.8%, BVP 21.9%/146 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.9% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.70
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 98 vs LHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-133) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-134	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Webb: K/9 6.8, proj 5.1K over 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .206 | OPS .572
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 21.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 (+118) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -164 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +118

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -164 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-159	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-150	+118	Selected
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -0.75
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.2K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.394 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 60 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .211 | OPS .701
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 22.8%, L7 28.2%, season 23.3%, BVP 31.7%/60 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.43 | Season Avg 3.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Over 3.5 (-105) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	3.5	-124	-108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-105	-121	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 8.6, proj 3.6K over 4.3 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 37.4% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 23.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .746
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.7%, L7 18.7%, season 18.9%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dustin May Under 4.5 (-169) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -169

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.9 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-157	+117	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	3.5	-172	+134	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	-
DK	4.5	+132	-169	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.7% / under 59.3%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.75
Dustin May: K/9 9.1, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian Walsh — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 63 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .510
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 63 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 17.3%, L7 22.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 19.1%/63 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
K% trend: support +4.8 ppts (recent 27.7% vs season 22.9%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (-106) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetRivers	5.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.7, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 23.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 84 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 13.1% | AVG .282 | OPS .956
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.2%, L7 20.6%, season 20.3%, BVP 15.5%/84 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 (-129) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetRivers	5.5	+102	-134	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+101	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.00K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 9.8, proj 5.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ben May — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs MacKenzie Gore: 87 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .850
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 23.0%/87 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (5/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (+101) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	18.5	+100	-140	-
DK	18.5	+101	-134	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+104	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.441000000000003 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.70 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .206 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 21.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 8.9%, L7 9.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 18.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (-131) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-110	-125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.264 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs MacKenzie Gore: 87 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 23.0%/87 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.9%, L7 8.8%, season 8.0%, BVP 9.2%/87 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (5/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 15.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.93x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (+136) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+150	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	-
DK	18.5	+136	-185	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+140	-198	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.663 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 6.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.64 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .161 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 11.4%, L7 7.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.0%/60 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/13 (23%) | Season 3/13 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.93x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (-108) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.467 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.72 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 40.5% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .638
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 40.5%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.8%, L7 10.7%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.8%/42 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 19.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 15.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 18.5 (-158) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 17.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+145	-
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+146	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
DK	18.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.557999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.73 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .276 | OPS .690
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 18.1%, L7 19.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.1%, split 6.5%, L7 8.7%, season 6.6%, BVP 0.0%/29 PA (adj 0.83x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Over 5.5 (+103) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.32 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.71, BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 23 PA | K% 4.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.565
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.2%, L7 24.4%, season 23.7%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/4 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Davis Martin Over 5.5 (-132) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-132	-101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.22 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .273 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.2%, L7 15.7%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (-114) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 10.6%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.1%, L7 19.8%, season 21.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 5.5 (-114) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.5%, L7 27.7%, season 24.9%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-104) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 6.1 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .206 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 21.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Over 1.5 (+127) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8332358575920589 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.1 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .206 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 21.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 8.9%, L7 9.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Rhett Lowder Over 1.5 (+108) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8085870218329745 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.0 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.3%, L7 23.2%, season 22.8%, top-6 19.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.0%, L7 8.3%, season 8.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 (-129) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.819782043181612 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.53 over 5.0 IP (BB% 12.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 34 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .206 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 35.3%/34 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 12.0%, L7 9.8%, season 10.1%, BVP 0.0%/34 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Bieber Over 1.5 (-175) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6373735084943566 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 23 PA | K% 4.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.565
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.2%, L7 24.4%, season 23.7%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 10.0%, L7 6.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 (-195) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3991090045205652 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.1% / under 61.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.5%, L7 27.7%, season 24.9%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.3%, L7 7.6%, season 9.7%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zack Littell Under 1.5 (-204) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4193879967089238 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 4.5 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 37.2% / under 62.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.045
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 22.7%, L7 30.2%, season 23.1% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 14.4%, L7 4.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — JT Ginn Over 2.5 (+138) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6109565977432827 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.1%, L7 19.8%, season 21.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.0%, L7 10.8%, season 8.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Davis Martin Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.560758931608355 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .273 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.2%, L7 15.7%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.0%, L7 8.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dustin May Over 1.5 (-177) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5333648237015556 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 63 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .510
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 17.3%, L7 22.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 19.1%/63 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.0%, L7 9.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.3%/63 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5292642607972422 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 19.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.3%, L7 7.8%, season 9.0% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brandon Pfaadt Over 1.5 (+172) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +172

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5076964823021273 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 34.5% / under 65.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .562
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 24.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.6%, L7 7.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.1%/49 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6); lineup K% 18.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 (-117) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-145	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.07 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 5.11, ERA 5.42)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.5%, L7 27.7%, season 24.9%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-169) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.36 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 2.94)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 19.9%, L7 19.1%, season 21.3%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 (-127) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-127	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.71 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.82, ERA 6.33)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 34 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .206 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.1%, L7 24.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 35.3%/34 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Under 2.5 (-140) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+105	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 3.96)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 63 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .510
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 17.3%, L7 22.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 19.1%/63 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Under 2.5 (-129) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .562
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 24.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.1%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.1% (5/6); lineup K% 18.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Under 2.5 (-115) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.72, ERA 4.73)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .273 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.2%, L7 15.7%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Under 2.5 (+104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-138	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.27 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 5.06)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.3%, L7 23.2%, season 22.8%, top-6 19.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-113) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	-
DK	2.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.87 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.62, ERA 5.92)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 60 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .211 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 22.8%, L7 28.2%, season 23.3%, BVP 31.7%/60 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.71 | Season Avg 3.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.93x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (-133) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.67 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.64, ERA 3.33)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .161 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fresh (0.93x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 (-135) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 3.33)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 40.5% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .638
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 40.5%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 19.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 (-138) Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 4.99)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs MacKenzie Gore: 87 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 23.0%/87 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (5/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.93x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-139) Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 8:09 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 3.70, ERA 3.84)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .206 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 21.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

31 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	71.6	73.9	73.0	4	Sweeper (51% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	66.0	67.6	68.5	5	Changeup (49% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	64.9	72.7	60.0	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins	60.9	59.6	64.5	6	Slider (39% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	60.3	64.7	60.5	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 37.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	59.7	61.2	62.0	7	Sweeper (37% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	58.0	63.7	54.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Max Meyer	Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	56.2	59.7	56.5	5	Slider (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	56.1	58.2	55.5	4	Cutter (39% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants	55.2	52.1	61.5	5	Sweeper (34% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Logan Allen	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	55.2	63.0	54.5	4	Sweeper (50% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 33.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	54.7	56.8	54.5	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Owen Murphy	Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers	54.1	35.6	77.5	3	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 60% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	53.8	64.8	45.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Washington Nationals	53.6	59.4	51.0	5	Changeup (34% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers	53.4	62.8	45.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	51.4	47.5	57.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins	49.7	62.4	37.5	5	Slider (51% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	49.0	53.6	46.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	47.7	52.6	41.0	7	Slider (39% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.7	47.9	45.0	7	Curveball (36% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	46.7	42.0	53.0	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.7	43.4	48.5	5	Sweeper (29% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	45.0	42.0	47.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	43.9	56.2	33.0	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	37.0	43.7	29.0	4	Slider (35% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres	28.6	18.9	37.5	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 10.6%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	28.4	40.4	10.5	4	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.394, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs Athletics	26.8	32.6	17.0	5	Slider (22% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.381, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	22.1	30.2	9.0	7	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox	20.2	43.6	0.0	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.477, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

31 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.9%	3.5	5.4	5.1	59	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Washington Nationals	R	21.3%	5.0	5.3	5.3	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Owen Murphy	Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers	R	24.8%	2.0	-	5.2	34	short	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.0 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	L	19.3%	6.0	5.3	5.5	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	22.7%	-	4.3	5.6	94	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.3 IP/GS, low-K contact opponent 18.9%, recent_form_unavailable
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins	L	21.4%	5.5	5.1	5.2	92	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	18.7%	4.3	5.6	5.3	72	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	R	19.4%	3.3	4.8	4.5	55	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.3 IP/start
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	31.1%	5.0	6.0	6.0	84	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Logan Allen	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	23.2%	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	full	54.50	45.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent_form_unavailable
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	R	13.9%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	9.00	91.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	31.9%	5.4	5.8	6.0	91	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	R	23.5%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres	R	17.1%	4.6	-	5.6	77	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	R	18.4%	4.1	4.4	4.7	69	short	full	10.50	89.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	R	27.2%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Max Meyer	Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.6%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins	L	21.9%	5.3	5.0	5.2	89	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	R	28.9%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	21.6%	5.1	5.3	5.4	86	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	27.3%	4.5	5.4	5.2	76	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	L	32.3%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.2%	4.1	4.4	4.5	69	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.5%	4.3	4.7	4.6	72	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.4%	6.6	6.3	6.3	111	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants	R	23.6%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	24.6%	5.0	5.2	5.1	84	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	L	28.6%	5.1	4.3	4.9	86	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	L	25.8%	5.4	5.2	5.3	91	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox	R	18.9%	4.1	4.4	5.0	69	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs Athletics	R	16.2%	4.8	4.7	4.7	80	short	full	17.00	83.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	20.4	1.9	10.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	16.3	-1.2	7.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels	18.5	19.7	1.2	6.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.5	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	17.6	-0.9	5.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes