MLB Bets 2026-07-17

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	153W–114L–0P	57%	-7.76 u	Last 14 days • 267 settled
Grade A	10W–13L–0P	43%	-5.68 u
Grade B	143W–101L–0P	59%	-2.08 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2047W–1458L–8P	58%	-134.41 u	All-time • 3513 settled
Grade A	209W–153L–0P	58%	+2.60 u
Grade B	1838W–1305L–8P	58%	-137.02 u

43 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	K Prop	Cal Quantrill	3.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	K Prop	Dean Kremer	4.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	K Prop	Griffin Jax	4.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	K Prop	Roki Sasaki	4.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	K Prop	Troy Melton	5.5	-102	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Bailey Ober	2.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Brady Singer	3.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Colin Rea	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Gabriel Hughes	3.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Gavin Williams	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Griffin Jax	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Bennett	2.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Landen Roupp	2.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Henderson	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Brady Singer	6.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cade Cavalli	5.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Gabriel Hughes	5.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Merrill Kelly	5.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-133	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	406	57%	-2.73u	53	49%	-8.03u	188	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	357	59%	+18.13u	50	62%	+3.77u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	330	59%	+3.35u	77	61%	+2.38u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	240	59%	-12.72u	59	58%	-4.25u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	103	46%	-13.54u	7	43%	-1.42u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 406, 14d N 53	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 357, 14d N 50	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 27 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/27 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 103, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	NO DATA	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Review will run after enough recently settled bets exist.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 744 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 312 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 215 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 722 pitcher(s), 3172 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 552 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 27 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 28 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 28 roster team(s), 360 hitter(s) \| 27 SP matchup(s), 963 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 360 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 28 team(s) \| No back-to-backs
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 28 team(s) \| No fatigued pens
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 292 market side(s) checked \| 292 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 597 \| batter bats 378 \| batter hand splits 149 \| pitcher HR splits 62 \| batter pitch-type 552 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-112	-107	-1.5 (+143)	+1.5 (-173)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+177	-217	+1.5 (-121)	-1.5 (+101)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+138)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+118	-142	+1.5 (-162)	-1.5 (+134)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-108	-111	-1.5 (+156)	+1.5 (-190)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-104	-115	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 12.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-112	-107	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+138)	+1.5 (-167)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	+130	-157	+1.5 (-169)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 23 Grade B | 49 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Griffin Jax Over	RAY@SOX	1:36 PM	4.5	6.8	-143	BetMGM Over 4.5 -130 \| best price	51.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	Pitcher Hits All	Michael King Under	PAD@ROY	8:11 PM	5.5	3.9	-133	BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 \| best price	29.1%	✓✓✓––✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (3 play(s))

K Prop - Cade Cavalli Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.25

K Prop - Gavin Williams Over

Projection: 8.1Displayed: Over 7.5 +116Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.9Recommended: BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 6.9 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.9

Pitcher Outs - Sandy Alcantara Over

Projection: 19.9Displayed: Over 17.5 -140Market line: majority 18.5 | avg 18.25Recommended: DK Over 17.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 18.5 / avg 18.25

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 4.5 (-143) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	4.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 51.4% vs 17% min; cushion +2.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Griffin Jax: K/9 9.5, proj 6.8K over 4.7 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 24.9% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 35 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .552
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.7%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/11 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 29.1% vs season 24.7%, proj adj +2.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael King Under 5.5 (-133) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .475
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.6%, L7 21.0%, season 21.4%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
A-tier gate: 50% consensus, but diff_pct 29.1% >= 18.8% and raw gap 1.60 >= 0.50

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (23 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-141) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-141	+110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 33.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dean Kremer: K/9 9.2, proj 6.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/4 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Split-Finger (45% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 104 PA | K% 22.1% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .758
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 104 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 22.1%/104 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 3/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -141, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.52K, diff 33.9%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 (-157) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+130	-166	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 30.2% vs 17% min; cushion -1.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Cal Quantrill: K/9 6.0, proj 2.4K over 4.3 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.1% | put-away% 12.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 68 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .217 | OPS .692
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 68 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 10.3%/68 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/19 (90%) | Season 17/19 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (-102) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 6.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-104	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-
BetMGM	6.5	+145	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.47K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta -0.25
Troy Melton: K/9 8.7, proj 7.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 38.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.5%, L7 26.0%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.2%/6 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.12 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 3/8 over 5.5
K% trend: support +7.4 ppts (recent 29.1% vs season 21.7%, proj adj +3.7%)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 4.5 (-138) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-138	+108	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta -0.25
Roki Sasaki: K/9 8.6, proj 5.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 19.8%, L7 29.6%, season 24.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, expected IP 4.9 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gabriel Hughes Under 5.5 (-126) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 32.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 25.6%, L7 27.1%, season 25.0% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/2 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home well-rested (4d) | Away well-rested (4d)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 (-119) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .125 | OPS .347
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.3%, L7 28.6%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-117) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.69 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 0.95, BB% 6.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 42 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .343 | OPS .766
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.8%, L7 20.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.62 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Under 6.5 (-143) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-155	-
DK	6.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 71 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .219 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.1%, L7 21.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 26.8%/71 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home well-rested (4d) | Away well-rested (4d)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-137) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 67 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.9%/67 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (B 14)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-170) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-170	+128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.66 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.16, ERA 4.40)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 3.5 (-162) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-165	-
DK	3.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 48.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.53 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 3.75)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 25.6%, L7 27.1%, season 25.0% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home well-rested (4d) | Away well-rested (4d)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-128) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 3.71)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .125 | OPS .347
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.3%, L7 28.6%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (-167) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-167	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.42)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 35 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.7%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-138) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.42 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 3.50)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 5.000
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.4%, L7 16.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Under 3.5 (-149) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.75 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.54, ERA 4.07)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 71 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .219 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.1%, L7 21.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 26.8%/71 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home well-rested (4d) | Away well-rested (4d)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-163) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.16 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 2.48)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.5%, L7 26.0%, season 25.0% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.25 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/8 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-158) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 16.5%, L7 26.6%, season 22.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.12 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Over 1.5 (-128) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.70 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.35, ERA 2.86)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .214 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.0%, L7 19.5%, season 20.6%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-146) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.12 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 2.66)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 42 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .343 | OPS .766
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.8%, L7 20.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/8 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-127) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.13 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 5.35)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 66 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .279 | OPS .809
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.9%, L7 20.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 22.7%/66 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-166) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	-
DK	2.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 4.56)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 23.3%, season 23.2% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Colin Rea Over 2.5 (-115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.12 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.83, ERA 4.38)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 29 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .720
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.2%/29 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (-158) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.82 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.87, ERA 4.53)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .077 | OPS .495
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 20.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (49 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 22 play(s) (B 6 | C 16)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bailey Ober Over 3.5 (-139) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-139	+109	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bailey Ober: K/9 6.4, proj 4.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .077 | OPS .495
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.1%, L7 20.2%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 3.5 (-172) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	3.5	-177	+130	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-172	+134	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 20.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.7% / under 40.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jake Bennett: K/9 7.5, proj 4.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 23.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 42 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .343 | OPS .766
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.8%, L7 20.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.38 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 over 3.5
K% trend: support +3.9 ppts (recent 23.1% vs season 19.2%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-129) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.0, proj 3.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.405 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 67 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .639
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.3%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters, BVP 14.9%/67 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.69
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-140) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-140	+109	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 10.0, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.236 | top pitch: Split-Finger (36% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .214 | OPS .624
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.0%, L7 19.5%, season 20.6%, active roster 18.1%/6 hitters, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 5.5 (-118) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-118	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.25K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Landen Roupp: K/9 9.5, proj 5.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 39.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.4%, L7 23.3%, season 23.2% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.78
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (-147) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 9.6, proj 6.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.268
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.3%, L7 26.8%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.47
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.7 ppts (recent 21.5% vs season 27.2%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 4.5 (-154) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-154	+120	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.17K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.2% / under 42.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); DK LOWER delta -1.00
Cade Cavalli: K/9 10.4, proj 5.7K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .125 | OPS .347
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.3%, L7 28.6%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +3.6 ppts (recent 29.0% vs season 25.4%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (+114) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 20.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.93K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brady Singer: K/9 8.2, proj 5.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 71 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .219 | OPS .631
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 21.7%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.3%/8 hitters, BVP 26.8%/71 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.3% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.22
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
K% trend: support +5.3 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 (-156) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.93K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gerrit Cole: K/9 9.0, proj 4.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 18.0% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 151 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .609
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 151 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.8%, L7 20.3%, season 20.3%, BVP 23.8%/151 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.22 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/9 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-163) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+127	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Seth Lugo: K/9 7.3, proj 3.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.3% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Cutter (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Cutter: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 66 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .279 | OPS .809
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 66 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.9%, L7 20.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 22.7%/66 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (-129) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-129	+102	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.66K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.2% / under 46.8%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta -0.25
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.3, proj 5.2K over 6.4 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 36.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 84 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .538
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 17.9%/84 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-110) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 5.6, proj 3.9K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 10% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Colin Rea Under 3.5 (+110) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-141	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Colin Rea: K/9 6.4, proj 3.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 19.9% | put-away% 12.9% | xwOBA 0.363 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 29 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .720
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.2%/29 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 7.5 (+116) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 6.9 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 7.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-155	+115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	6.5	-158	+124	-
DK	7.5	+116	-148	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.60K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.75
Gavin Williams: K/9 11.1, proj 8.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .900
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 7.05
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Over 4.5 (+114) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.32K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael King: K/9 7.3, proj 4.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .475
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 24.6%, L7 21.0%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.9%/6 hitters, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.84
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 99 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (+113) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 7.5 +113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-155	+115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	+105	-135	-
DK	7.5	+113	-144	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	7.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Chris Sale: K/9 11.0, proj 7.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 33 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .167 | OPS .409
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.1%, L7 24.5%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.2%/6 hitters, BVP 33.3%/33 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.88
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 3.5 (-105) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.2, proj 3.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 19 PA | K% 5.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .118 | OPS .505
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 15.3%, split 15.8%, L7 15.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.74
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-164) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.21K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gage Jump: K/9 9.4, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Curveball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 25.1%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/9 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Under 4.5 (+103) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-118	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 8.3, proj 4.4K over 4.8 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.256 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 23.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 25.6%, L7 27.1%, season 25.0% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 97 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Henderson Under 5.5 (-148) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.02K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Henderson: K/9 9.8, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 5.000
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.4%, L7 16.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.67 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (-108) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-118	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jared Jones: K/9 9.7, proj 5.5K over 4.4 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.6% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 25.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 16.5%, L7 26.6%, season 22.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.88 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: K L10: 3/8 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 5.5 (+104) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+104	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.00K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Peter Lambert: K/9 8.7, proj 5.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .598
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 21.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (B 3 | C 3)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Bryce Miller Over 17.5 (-173) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-173	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.257999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .214 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.0%, L7 19.5%, season 20.6%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 6.6%, L7 10.5%, season 6.7%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.76 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.76 <= 3 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Over 17.5 (-160) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-160	+120	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.599 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.7%, L7 9.8%, season 9.5%, BVP 4.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 17.5 (-169) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.503 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 33 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .167 | OPS .409
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.1%, L7 24.5%, season 22.4%, BVP 33.3%/33 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.4%, L7 8.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 17.5 (-140) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 18.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-140	+106	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	18.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	-
FanDuel	18.5	+122	-162	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 19.937 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 84 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 17.9%/84 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 11.2%, L7 11.1%, season 10.6%, BVP 8.3%/84 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.10 | Season Avg 19.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 (+104) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.151 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.5 IP (xFIP 5.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 67 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.9%/67 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.4%, L7 6.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Under 17.5 (-110) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.033000000000005 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.75 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.268
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.3%, L7 26.8%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 13.0%, L7 10.2%, season 9.6%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (B 2 | C 6)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gavin Williams Under 5.5 (-144) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .261 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 (-159) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	Recommended
DK	6.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 6.1%)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 84 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 17.9%/84 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bailey Ober Under 5.5 (-138) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.6%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .077 | OPS .495
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 20.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-108) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 5.7%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-147) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.21 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.53, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 66 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .279 | OPS .809
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.9%, L7 20.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 22.7%/66 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Colin Rea Over 5.5 (-106) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 29 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .720
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.2%/29 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-129) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-102	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.1%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/9 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 (-164) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 151 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.8%, L7 20.3%, season 20.3%, BVP 23.8%/151 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/9 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 11 play(s) (B 1 | C 10)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-111) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 52.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.16 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 5.15, ERA 5.34)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 67 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.9%/67 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (1 books) — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-113) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 2.95)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 21.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Over 2.5 (+107) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.29 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 6.57)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 19.8%, L7 29.6%, season 24.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (-137) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	-
DK	2.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 3.76)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 84 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 17.9%/84 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-163) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.75, ERA 4.82)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.268
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.3%, L7 26.8%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-113) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-118	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 3.91)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.1%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.11 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 4.61)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 151 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.8%, L7 20.3%, season 20.3%, BVP 23.8%/151 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.44 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Over 2.5 (-107) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.93 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.85, ERA 4.16)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 19 PA | K% 5.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .118 | OPS .505
Opponent K profile: composite 15.3%, split 15.8%, L7 15.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/19 (26%) | Season 5/19 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-123) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 4.19)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 104 PA | K% 22.1% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .758
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.4%, L7 21.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.1%/104 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (+100) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	-
DK	2.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 3.37)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .475
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.6%, L7 21.0%, season 21.4%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Under 2.5 (-118) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 3.04)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (+152) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6108041923598408 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 37.2% / under 62.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 35 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.7%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.1%, L7 11.1%, season 8.1%, BVP 2.9%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/25 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Bennett Under 1.5 (-201) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -201 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.489785781380573 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 37.5% / under 62.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 42 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .343 | OPS .766
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 16.8%, L7 20.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.6%, L7 5.2%, season 9.3%, BVP 7.1%/42 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/8 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants	73.1	62.4	89.5	7	Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.236, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins	65.0	62.7	71.5	4	Changeup (35% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	64.9	72.7	60.0	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	61.5	61.7	64.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers	61.4	63.8	63.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	60.7	53.5	73.0	6	Slider (35% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	60.1	43.6	79.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 58% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	59.0	49.1	73.5	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	58.4	54.7	64.5	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	57.2	51.0	64.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	53.8	64.8	45.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	53.1	64.5	44.0	6	Split-Finger (45% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Athletics	52.4	56.6	49.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox	52.3	42.0	66.0	5	Curveball (22% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	51.5	59.4	41.5	3	Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers	51.0	39.7	62.0	5	Slider (27% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	51.0	71.7	31.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	51.0	45.2	57.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Washington Nationals	50.4	50.0	53.0	6	Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	46.4	52.8	43.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	43.9	39.5	46.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	40.7	50.3	28.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	39.6	44.5	33.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	38.4	34.1	42.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 12.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres	34.6	37.7	29.0	8	Cutter (25% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins	32.0	36.4	26.0	7	Slider (32% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	24.5	39.9	5.0	6	Slider (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.405, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	15.0%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	5.00	95.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Washington Nationals	L	24.3%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers	L	28.8%	4.9	5.8	5.6	82	short	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	R	25.4%	5.5	5.5	5.6	92	normal	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	21.5%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins	R	15.9%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	17.6%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	R	20.8%	5.6	5.0	5.1	94	normal	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	29.6%	5.2	6.0	6.0	87	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.7%	4.5	6.0	5.6	76	short	full	79.50	20.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	24.5%	5.6	6.2	6.0	94	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	R	23.3%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres	R	18.4%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	L	25.2%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	R	21.4%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	19.3%	6.5	6.5	6.5	109	deep	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins	R	27.1%	5.2	4.7	5.2	87	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	R	17.0%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	23.3%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	R	26.1%	4.2	4.4	4.6	70	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.5%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	R	24.5%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants	R	29.1%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	89.50	10.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	R	26.1%	5.2	4.4	4.5	87	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	R	16.1%	3.8	4.2	4.9	64	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox	R	23.8%	2.5	3.3	4.5	42	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.5 IP/start
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Athletics	R	26.7%	4.7	4.9	4.9	79	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	19.9	2.4	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.2	-1.4	7.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Under	Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.1%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.76 <= 3 min
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.3%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	17.5	0.0	0.0%	B	MONITOR	research	short	5.6	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes