MLB Bets 2026-07-12

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	230W–155L–0P	60%	+4.13 u	Last 14 days • 385 settled
Grade A	23W–15L–0P	61%	+1.88 u
Grade B	207W–140L–0P	60%	+2.26 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2027W–1441L–8P	58%	-130.90 u	All-time • 3476 settled
Grade A	208W–150L–0P	58%	+4.99 u
Grade B	1819W–1291L–8P	58%	-135.89 u

54 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Dustin May	4.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	4.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore	4.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Seth Lugo	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Shane Baz	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-110	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	JR Ritchie	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Lorenzen	2.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	2.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Trevor McDonald	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Zack Wheeler	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dustin May	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Emerson Hancock	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	German Marquez	5.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jose Soriano	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael Lorenzen	5.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Schultz	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Robert Gasser	5.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Outs	Zack Wheeler	17.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	JR Ritchie	1.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Noah Schultz	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Seth Lugo	1.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Taj Bradley	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	0.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-209	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-11	K Prop	Griffin Jax	5.5	-133	-	LOSS	-1.000	Griffin Jax: 3.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Peter Lambert	4.5	-112	-	WIN	+0.893	Peter Lambert: 7.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	7.5	120	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cristopher Sánchez: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	6.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Cristopher Sánchez: 7.0 (line 6.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.5	-159	-	WIN	+0.629	Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 6.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	400	57%	+1.66u	72	57%	-1.10u	184	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	350	59%	+18.18u	78	64%	+8.30u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	317	60%	+4.36u	114	60%	+2.01u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	230	58%	-14.06u	85	55%	-10.24u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	102	45%	-14.13u	11	45%	-1.60u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 30 total candidate(s); season N 400, 14d N 72	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 350, 14d N 78	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 102, 14d N 11	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 744 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 311 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 213 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 722 pitcher(s), 3170 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 550 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 21 team(s), 189 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1057 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 189 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cleveland Guardians, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 378 market side(s) checked \| 378 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 595 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 550 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	12:16 PM	+108	-130	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-162)	-1.5 (+134)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+143)	+1.5 (-174)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	-131	+108	-1.5 (+123)	+1.5 (-148)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	-106	-114	-1.5 (+158)	+1.5 (-193)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	+108	-131	+1.5 (-216)	-1.5 (+176)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	+123	-148	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	+109	-132	+1.5 (-192)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-180)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers	4:11 PM	+188	-231	+1.5 (-107)	-1.5 (-113)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	-131	+108	-1.5 (+125)	+1.5 (-150)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

3 Grade A | 23 Grade B | 82 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: 8/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -164	K Prop	Joey Cantillo Over	GUA@MAR	1:41 PM	4.5	6.8	-164	BetRivers Over 4.5 -162 \| best price	52.1%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -140, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade le…	K Prop	Dustin May Over	BRA@CAR	2:16 PM	4.5	5.9	-140	BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 \| best price	31.6%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: juiced K over -137	K Prop	Tarik Skubal Over	PHI@TIG	1:41 PM	7.5	9.7	-137	BetRivers Over 7.5 -118 \| best price	28.9%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (9 play(s))

K Prop - German Marquez Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.93

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Noah Schultz Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

Pitcher Earned Runs - Paul Skenes Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

K Prop - Tyler Phillips Over

Projection: 4.3Displayed: Over 3.5 +136Market line: majority 2.5 | avg 3Recommended: BetOnline Over 2.5 -167 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

K Prop - JR Ritchie Over

Projection: 3.9Displayed: Over 3.5 +131Market line: majority 2.5 | avg 2.67Recommended: BetMGM Over 2.5 -145 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 2.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.67

K Prop - Payton Tolle Over

Projection: 4.8Displayed: Over 4.5 -157Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.07Recommended: BetRivers Over 4.5 -143 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.07

Pitcher Outs - Zack Wheeler Over

Projection: 20.6Displayed: Over 18.5 +124Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 17.92Recommended: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.92 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 17.92

Pitcher Earned Runs - MacKenzie Gore Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Zack Wheeler Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 (-164) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	4.5	-167	+127	-
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-164	+128	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-166	+130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 52.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.35K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Joey Cantillo: K/9 9.4, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.2%, L7 13.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 23.5%, proj adj +2.3%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: 8/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -164 -- A risk note

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Dustin May Over 4.5 (-140) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 31.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.42K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Dustin May: K/9 9.5, proj 5.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .204 | OPS .759
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.2% (7/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: support +8.4 ppts (recent 31.4% vs season 23.0%, proj adj +4.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -140, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- A risk note

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (-137) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	7.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	7.5	-118	-113	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	-125	-105	-
DK	7.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-104	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.16K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.4, proj 9.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.5% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 92 PA | K% 33.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .553
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 92 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, top-6 23.8%, BVP 33.7%/92 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
K% trend: support +5.1 ppts (recent 35.5% vs season 30.4%, proj adj +2.5%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -137 -- A-grade risk note

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (23 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-163) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 5.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 5.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+270	-500	-
BetRivers	5.5	+110	-148	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+127	-163	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	-

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.05K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Shane Baz: K/9 7.4, proj 4.5K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Curveball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Additon — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .216 | OPS .665
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 (-124) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 7.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.36 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.70, BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Schultz Under 5.5 (-163) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 11.7%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-154) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+116	-154	Selected

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .204 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — German Marquez Under 5.5 (-139) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 16.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/8 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-140) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-140	Selected

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8%, top-6 22.2% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.62 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jose Soriano Under 5.5 (-120) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 11.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.7%/12 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 (-150) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .857 | OPS 1.857
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.8% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Over 0.5 (-244) diff 97.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 66.5% / Under 33.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -244 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 0.9880153095190654 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.18 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.2%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 66.5% / under 33.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 92 PA | K% 33.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .553
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, top-6 23.8%, BVP 33.7%/92 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 7.9%, BVP 3.3%/92 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-244); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-167) diff 87.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8154920780124835 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.2%, L7 13.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.4%, L7 11.2%, season 9.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 (-172) diff 64.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.460173137433628 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 5.1 IP (BB% 10.3%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 116 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .202 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 15.5%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.9%, L7 8.2%, season 11.0%, BVP 12.1%/116 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (5/6); lineup K% 21.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Over 1.5 (-154) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.254991420109104 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 26.9%, season 25.0%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.6%, L7 6.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-120) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.190529821302913 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .216 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.5%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.7%/43 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-143) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1138774601050097 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .319 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.5%, L7 7.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.9%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-122) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8908280743960675 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.18x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .104 | OPS .489
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.5%, split 12.5%, L7 10.9%, season 10.1%, BVP 12.7%/55 PA (adj 1.18x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor McDonald Over 1.5 (-160) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.6% / Under 42.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-160	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.80 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 6.27)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.6% / under 42.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor McDonald: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .750
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.2%, L7 22.7%, season 22.9% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-136) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+110	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 2.92)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.2%, L7 13.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — JR Ritchie Over 1.5 (-123) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.59, ERA 4.55)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 23.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-164) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.56 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 3.44)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-144) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-144	+109	Selected

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.64 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 3.82)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 40.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.8%, L7 23.5%, season 23.2%, top-6 18.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 7/32 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Under 2.5 (-164) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.25, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 60 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .207 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-145) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+110	-145	Selected

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 3.94)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.6% / under 55.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .538 | OPS 1.908
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 (-129) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.40 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.69, ERA 5.56)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (82 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (B 5 | C 21)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 4.5 (-108) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	4.5	-118	-113	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-108	-118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 44.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.00K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.1, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adrian Johnson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .319 | OPS .906
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.84
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — German Marquez Under 3.5 (-173) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 2.93 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	2.5	-177	+132	-
Bovada Direct	2.5	-190	+145	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	2.5	-186	+144	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+320	-600	-
BetMGM	3.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	3.5	+134	-175	-
DK	3.5	+135	-173	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 2.93 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
German Marquez: K/9 6.5, proj 3.1K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.0% | put-away% 12.7% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .828
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 16.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-131) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	5.5	-127	-105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-131	+102	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 53.4% / under 46.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.64K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%
Ian Seymour: K/9 10.8, proj 6.1K over 4.9 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Derek Thomas — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 40.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.8%, L7 23.5%, season 23.2%, top-6 18.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 3/32 (9%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +2.25 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 28.7%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Robert Gasser Over 4.5 (-160) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+116	-
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-160	+125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.41K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.5, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Cutter (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alfonso Márquez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Cutter: 21.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8%, top-6 22.2% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-108) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-106	-122	-
BetRivers	4.5	-124	-107	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.41K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.7, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.8% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Additon — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Cutter: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .104 | OPS .489
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-102) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	-110	-121	-
DK	4.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	Recommended

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 29.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.31K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
JT Ginn: K/9 7.5, proj 5.8K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Doug Eddings — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+126) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	5.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+126	-162	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.58K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Jose Soriano: K/9 10.0, proj 7.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.4% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Laz Diaz — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.7%/12 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (-133) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-200	+145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	3.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+104	-133	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+116	-148	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 27.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.96K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Mitch Bratt: K/9 8.5, proj 2.5K over 3.0 IP (season 3.0 IP/GS; elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 10.6% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Slider (57% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.6%, L7 20.9%, season 20.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 27.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (+136) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 2.5 -167 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +136

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 2.5 -167 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	-167	+128	Recommended
BetRivers	2.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+300	-550	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	+140	-185	-
DK	3.5	+136	-174	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+138	-178	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.84K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.2, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 16.7%, L7 30.5%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/24 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 (+105) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	7.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	7.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	7.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+108	-138	-

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 21.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.58K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.4, proj 9.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 57 PA | K% 38.6% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .145 | OPS .448
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 38.6%/57 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
K% trend: support +8.1 ppts (recent 37.5% vs season 29.4%, proj adj +4.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 (-110) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 15.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.85K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Cade Cavalli: K/9 10.7, proj 6.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: David Rackley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 42.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .538 | OPS 1.908
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 29.3% vs season 25.5%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 (-134) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	5.5	-124	-107	Recommended
DK	5.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.82K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Matthew Boyd: K/9 8.7, proj 6.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.9% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alex MacKay — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .933
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.6%, L7 26.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/8 over 5.5
K% trend: headwind -6.6 ppts (recent 19.6% vs season 26.2%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 133 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (+115) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	-
BetOnline	3.5	-141	+108	-
BetRivers	3.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.51K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.7, proj 3.0K over 5.1 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 18.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, active roster 18.2%/6 hitters, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 110 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Cristian Javier Under 3.5 (-143) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	3.5	+102	-136	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Cristian Javier: K/9 7.5, proj 3.1K over 3.0 IP (season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 11.9% | xwOBA 0.395 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adrian Johnson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristian Javier: 54 PA | K% 35.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .820
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.3%, L7 24.1%, season 22.4%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 35.2%/54 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (-107) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	5.5	-108	-124	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.59K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.4, proj 6.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 170 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trevor McDonald Under 4.5 (-145) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetOnline	4.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	4.5	+100	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.48K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Trevor McDonald: K/9 7.2, proj 4.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor McDonald: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .750
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.2%, L7 22.7%, season 22.9%, active roster 21.4%/8 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 12.9% vs season 18.8%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — JR Ritchie Over 3.5 (+131) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 2.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 3.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	2.5	-152	+117	-
BetRivers	2.5	-159	+120	-
Bovada Direct	2.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	2.5	-164	+128	-
DK	3.5	+131	-167	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 2.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
JR Ritchie: K/9 9.0, proj 3.8K over 4.5 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 20.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 23.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.2% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 21.0%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 110 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-136) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	6.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
DK	6.5	-136	+107	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-136	+106	-

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.49K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Paul Skenes: K/9 11.0, proj 7.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.259 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alfonso Márquez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 36.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 60 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .207 | OPS .640
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.47
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Will Warren Under 4.5 (-141) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -141

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	4.5	+100	-134	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+111	-141	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.30K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Will Warren: K/9 8.4, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: David Rackley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.9 ppts (recent 16.0% vs season 22.9%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Noah Schultz Over 4.5 (+104) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	-104	-129	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.25K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Noah Schultz: K/9 8.2, proj 4.8K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.372 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Doug Eddings — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Payton Tolle Over 4.5 (-157) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-143	+108	Recommended
DK	4.5	-157	+123	Selected
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.25K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Payton Tolle: K/9 8.9, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Shane Livensparger — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 6.5 (-118) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	6.5	-112	-115	-
BetRivers	6.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-108	-120	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.33K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.9, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Cutter (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Laz Diaz — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 15.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .900
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 25.5%, L7 26.9%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.1%/6 hitters, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.59
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 32.8% vs season 27.8%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zach Thornton Under 4.5 (-135) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-148	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.20K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Zach Thornton: K/9 8.7, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Shane Livensparger — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 17.7%, L7 21.4%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (+125) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.23K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.6, proj 5.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .795
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 17.1%, L7 21.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 (-162) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+134	-175	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+126	-162	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.09K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.1, proj 4.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Derek Thomas — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .857 | OPS 1.857
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 16.8% (5/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (-114) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-109	-119	-
BetRivers	4.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-111	-114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.04K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Andrew Abbott: K/9 8.1, proj 4.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alex MacKay — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 116 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .202 | OPS .626
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 116 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 15.5%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.4% (5/6); lineup K% 21.6% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.26
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 24.1% vs season 18.5%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 (+124) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.92 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 2 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	-
FanDuel	17.5	-188	+140	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	18	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+124	-165	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 20.618 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.92 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 57 PA | K% 38.6% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .145 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 38.6%/57 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.5%/57 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.70 | Season Avg 18.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.12 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.12 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Over 17.5 (-169) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-169	+127	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+114	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 18.650999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 26.9%, season 25.0%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.6%, L7 6.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 16.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (+140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books | 17.5 at 1 book | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-205	+148	-
BetOnline	18	-140	+100	-
BetMGM	18.5	+140	-200	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+140	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	18.5	+130	-185	-

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 19.675 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 39.1% / under 60.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 92 PA | K% 33.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .553
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, top-6 23.8%, BVP 33.7%/92 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 7.9%, BVP 3.3%/92 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Over 17.5 (-162) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	17.5	-170	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
DK	17.5	-162	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	-

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 18.33 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.53 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .216 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.5%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.7%/43 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (+112) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-149	+112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.037000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 60 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .207 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.1%, L7 10.7%, season 10.6%, BVP 10.0%/60 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.90 | Season Avg 16.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+117) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +117

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-155	+117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 17.386 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.1%/170 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Will Warren Over 5.5 (-120) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-120	-111	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.23 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-134) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 10.3%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 116 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .202 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 15.5%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (5/6); lineup K% 21.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-148) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-148	+111	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .104 | OPS .489
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+124) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
DK	5.5	+124	-166	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (-136) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-136	+103	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .216 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 23 play(s) (C 23)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Noah Schultz Over 1.5 (-114) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3185939160514955 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.5 IP (BB% 11.7%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.2%, L7 5.7%, season 9.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (+105) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.222686934860871 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 16.7%, L7 30.5%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.2%, L7 6.6%, season 9.8% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — JR Ritchie Over 1.5 (-103) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.028720009054589 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.4 IP (BB% 11.6%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 23.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 8.4%, L7 4.8%, season 8.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (+118) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.937714370314962 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 17.7%, L7 21.4%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.6%, L7 11.6%, season 8.1% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/2 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Mitch Bratt Over 1.5 (+106) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8902085664827315 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.6%, L7 20.9%, season 20.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.1%, L7 7.1%, season 10.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Will Warren Over 1.5 (-108) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8756750901155337 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 9.9%, L7 11.7%, season 8.9%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (+128) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8722172253580522 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8%, top-6 22.2% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.3%, L7 9.9%, season 9.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — German Marquez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8632569169533881 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 16.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 7.1%, season 7.4%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.25 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/8 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (+105) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8206077353439871 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.5%, L7 11.2%, season 8.3% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-137) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7809059271591754 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .933
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.6%, L7 26.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 13.7%, L7 8.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 5.6%/54 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Cristian Javier Under 1.5 (+143) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +143 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2715819089811224 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 3.0 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristian Javier: 54 PA | K% 35.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.3%, L7 24.1%, season 22.4%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 35.2%/54 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 6.9%, L7 7.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 11.1%/54 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/5 under 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-125) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.726332525576981 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 40.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.8%, L7 23.5%, season 23.2%, top-6 18.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.7%, L7 8.6%, season 8.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/32 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-152) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7042429145829017 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .538 | OPS 1.908
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 14.1%, L7 5.5%, season 10.2%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (-113) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3481821820769104 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.3 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .795
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 17.1%, L7 21.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 10.0%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/44 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Emerson Hancock Under 1.5 (-115) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3525829374259362 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .857 | OPS 1.857
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.6%, L7 4.5%, season 9.2% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.8% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Under 1.5 (-104) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3638097562784393 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 60 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .207 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.1%, L7 10.7%, season 10.6%, BVP 10.0%/60 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — JT Ginn Over 2.5 (+102) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.68386658217472 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 14.6%, L7 5.7%, season 9.3% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Dustin May Under 1.5 (-192) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.4297334771251105 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.1 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .204 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.0%, L7 6.9%, season 7.9%, BVP 15.4%/52 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Trevor McDonald Over 1.5 (-101) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5637302518429017 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.4 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor McDonald: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .750
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.2%, L7 22.7%, season 22.9% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.1%, L7 10.0%, season 8.4% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 (-173) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5616297630981597 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.1%/170 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Under 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4442775679279198 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.5%, L7 9.9%, season 6.6%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-136) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5553689095250374 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 57 PA | K% 38.6% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .145 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 38.6%/57 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.5%/57 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Over 2.5 (+112) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5211821899842994 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.0 IP (BB% 11.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.7%/12 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 7.5%, L7 10.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-111) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 16.7%, L7 30.5%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/24 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (-147) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-147	+111	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .216 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-122) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-109	-122	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .933
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.6%, L7 26.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.38 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (+101) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+101	-135	Selected

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.98 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 6.14)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Under 2.5 (-176) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+132	-176	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.74 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 4.03)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dustin May: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .204 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Under 2.5 (-155) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.40 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 5.41)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .795
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 17.1%, L7 21.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-154) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+120	-
DK	2.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.12 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 5.31)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .104 | OPS .489
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-128) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.43)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 26.9%, season 25.0%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-108) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.92)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.017
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.7%/12 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Under 2.5 (-146) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.48 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.69, ERA 7.24)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristian Javier: 54 PA | K% 35.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.3%, L7 24.1%, season 22.4%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 35.2%/54 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-142) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.25)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.6%, L7 20.9%, season 20.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Emerson Hancock Under 2.5 (-122) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-108	-122	Selected

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 3.65)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .857 | OPS 1.857
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 16.8% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.8% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (-116) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-115	-116	Selected

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.87 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 3.06)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Over 2.5 (+129) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +129; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	Recommended
DK	2.5	+129	-173	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 5.17)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .319 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-129) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-129	Selected

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 5.10)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — German Marquez Over 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-134	+101	Selected

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.25 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.86, ERA 4.70)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 16.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.62 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (+103) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.72 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.68, ERA 3.40)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 92 PA | K% 33.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .553
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, top-6 23.8%, BVP 33.7%/92 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 4.97)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-143) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+115	-
DK	2.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 3.76)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 116 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .202 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.4%, BVP 15.5%/116 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.4% (5/6); lineup K% 21.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (-140) Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.18)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8%, top-6 22.2% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-163) Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+122	-163	Selected

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 4.36)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 17.7%, L7 21.4%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 (+122) Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-162	+122	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.38 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.89, ERA 2.34)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 57 PA | K% 38.6% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .145 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 38.6%/57 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	70.2	66.8	79.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	68.0	60.3	78.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	65.7	68.0	68.0	5	Changeup (49% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	62.5	63.0	67.5	7	Sweeper (38% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	60.8	53.4	70.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 48% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	58.2	65.1	53.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	57.1	70.3	47.5	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 32.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	57.1	59.5	56.5	4	Cutter (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	56.3	60.1	54.5	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	56.1	62.8	51.0	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	54.9	45.0	63.0	5	Cutter (28% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	54.1	57.2	53.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	54.0	66.6	43.0	5	Slider (52% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	53.1	57.2	50.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	52.9	40.1	67.5	4	Slider (57% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 10.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	52.8	57.7	51.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	51.6	48.7	56.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	48.2	44.8	51.5	5	Slider (37% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	48.1	47.7	48.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	47.8	51.1	46.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	46.2	52.9	39.0	6	Curveball (48% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.2	48.5	39.0	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	43.4	44.7	39.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	42.8	42.2	43.5	5	Curveball (28% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	37.3	40.0	29.5	7	Changeup (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	35.8	44.2	30.0	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	34.6	36.5	30.0	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	33.6	34.5	27.0	5	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	33.4	48.8	10.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.395, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	33.2	43.3	21.5	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	22.5%	-	3.0	5.5	92	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.4%, recent_form_unavailable
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	R	19.7%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	22.6%	3.8	5.1	5.0	64	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.2%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	L	24.1%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.7%	5.0	5.0	5.1	84	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	L	20.6%	4.5	4.8	4.7	76	short	full	21.50	78.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	L	20.5%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	5.8	5.0	6.0	97	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	15.5%	5.1	4.8	4.8	86	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	31.6%	5.3	5.9	6.0	89	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	18.1%	2.3	3.1	4.4	39	short	full	10.00	90.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	17.1%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	26.1%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	26.2%	3.7	4.8	4.6	62	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	15.9%	5.0	4.9	5.1	84	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.5%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	29.5%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	L	23.1%	5.0	5.2	5.5	84	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	R	20.5%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	R	32.2%	5.9	6.2	6.2	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	29.2%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	17.1%	4.8	5.0	5.1	80	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.4%	3.9	4.9	4.7	65	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.4%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.0%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	L	29.2%	5.1	4.5	5.1	86	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	L	26.5%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	R	24.2%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	R	26.8%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.12 <= 3 min
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.7	1.1	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	19.7	1.2	6.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Over	Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	Blended market direction + consensus lean % across available books	Blended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 3 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes