MLB Bets 2026-07-08

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	219W–135L–0P	62%	+15.50 u	Last 14 days • 354 settled
Grade A	23W–12L–0P	66%	+4.78 u
Grade B	196W–123L–0P	61%	+10.72 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1969W–1396L–8P	59%	-125.99 u	All-time • 3373 settled
Grade A	202W–145L–0P	58%	+5.75 u
Grade B	1767W–1251L–8P	59%	-131.74 u

46 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Foster Griffin	4.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Gerrit Cole	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Kyle Harrison	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Logan Webb	5.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore	6.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti	4.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Troy Melton	4.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-111	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Connor Prielipp	1.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Davis Martin	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Foster Griffin	2.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Jeffrey Springs	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane McClanahan	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dean Kremer	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Foster Griffin	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	George Kirby	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Grant Holmes	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Spencer Arrighetti	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Troy Melton	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Outs	Gerrit Cole	17.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-08	Pitcher Outs	Roki Sasaki	17.5	-134	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-07	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	125	-	WIN	+1.250	Joey Cantillo: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-07	K Prop	Matthew Boyd	4.5	-163	-	WIN	+0.613	Matthew Boyd: 7.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-07	K Prop	Trevor McDonald	3.5	-135	-	LOSS	-1.000	Trevor McDonald: 0.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	374	58%	+5.66u	62	66%	+9.34u	173	61%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	332	59%	+17.11u	74	66%	+10.34u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	286	59%	+1.74u	105	59%	+0.54u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	206	59%	-11.57u	73	60%	-3.51u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	98	46%	-12.02u	12	58%	+0.72u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 9 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 374, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 332, 14d N 74	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 98, 14d N 12	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 732 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 306 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 210 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 717 pitcher(s), 3113 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 550 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 824 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Athletics, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 314 market side(s) checked \| 314 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 590 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 63 \| batter pitch-type 550 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants	3:46 PM	-119	-102	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+108	-131	+1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-101	-120	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+123)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+108	-131	+1.5 (-201)	-1.5 (+164)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+123	-148	+1.5 (-173)	-1.5 (+142)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+101	-122	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+108	-131	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+124)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-158)	-1.5 (+131)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres	10:11 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+198	-245	+1.5 (+101)	-1.5 (-122)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

4 Grade A | 24 Grade B | 55 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A ⭐ TOP PICK	⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Walbert Urena Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	4.5	6.5	-111	DK Over 4.5 -111 \| exact	44.7%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162, pitch-type boost on 10% usage pitch	K Prop	Foster Griffin Over	AST@NAT	6:46 PM	4.5	5.7	-162	DK Over 4.5 -162 \| exact	26.9%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165	K Prop	Troy Melton Over	ATH@TIG	6:41 PM	4.5	5.7	-165	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	26.0%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	6.5	7.8	-126	FanDuel Over 6.5 -122 \| best price	20.8%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Logan Webb Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.7

K Prop - Slade Cecconi Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.75

⭐ TOP PICKS - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (-111) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-111	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 44.7% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.01K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.9, proj 6.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Walbert Ureña: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .634
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.9%, L7 16.5%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.5%/7 hitters, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.69
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-162) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-162	+127	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 26.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.21K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.8, proj 5.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 26.9% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.21 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162, pitch-type boost on 10% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (-165) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 26.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.17K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Troy Melton: K/9 7.7, proj 5.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.9%, L7 25.3%, season 22.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.57 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 23.9% vs season 19.2%, proj adj +2.4%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165 -- A-grade risk note

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 (-126) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	-
DK	6.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-122	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-130	-105	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.35K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 9.9, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 42.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .530
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.0%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.78
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (24 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Over 4.5 (-142) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Checks: ✓✓✓!–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 48.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.16K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 9.8, proj 6.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 36 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 19.4% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.5%, L7 19.0%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.1%/6 hitters, BVP 25.0%/36 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.64
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 28.9% vs season 23.9%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.16K, diff 48.0%, books 100%)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Chase Burns Over 6.5 (-143) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!!–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 38.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.49K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Chase Burns: K/9 11.0, proj 9.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.1% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Slider (53% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 34 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .464
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.5%, L7 25.2%, season 23.5%, active roster 22.6%/7 hitters, BVP 35.3%/34 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.6% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.82
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 (-140) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+109	-140	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Checks: ✓✓!!–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 32.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.76K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Gerrit Cole: K/9 9.1, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 22.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 127 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .641
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 127 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.0%, L7 22.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 18.9%/127 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.12 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 under 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Kyle Harrison Under 5.5 (-130) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.04K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Kyle Harrison: K/9 11.1, proj 4.5K over 4.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .105 | OPS .211
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 15.4%, L7 19.6%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.19
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-166) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
DK	5.5	+129	-166	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.01K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Logan Webb: K/9 7.4, proj 4.5K over 6.4 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 59 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .327 | OPS .835
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 59 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 19.9%, BVP 13.6%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note Pitcher Outs — Roki Sasaki Under 17.5 (-134) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
DK	17.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 13.462 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 23.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 105) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 79)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 4.9 | pitch-count proxy 79
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 24 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .941
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 22.0%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.5%, L7 9.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/15 (80%) | Season 12/15 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 15.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 (-116) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 13.958 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 20.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 80%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.19 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 127 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.0%, L7 22.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 18.9%/127 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.8%, L7 6.8%, season 9.5%, BVP 7.9%/127 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/8 under 17.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Troy Melton Under 5.5 (-159) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 3.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 36.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.62 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 0.92, BB% 7.1%)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.9%, L7 25.3%, season 22.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.57 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/7 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — George Kirby Over 5.5 (-153) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	-
DK	5.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 7.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 5.6%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 16.5%, L7 16.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grant Holmes Under 5.5 (-123) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 10.7%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.92x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 18 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .062 | OPS .229
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 19.7%, L7 22.9%, season 23.8%, BVP 50.0%/18 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 (-153) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 11.4%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 36 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 19.4% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.5%, L7 19.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/36 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-131) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 0.99, BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-151) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.6%, L7 21.4%, season 23.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/7 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-159) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 44 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .806
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.2%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/3 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 10 play(s) (B 10)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Over 1.5 (-165) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.26 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.67)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 71 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .179 | OPS .509
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.9%, L7 20.5%, season 19.5%, BVP 19.7%/71 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Over 1.5 (-177) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 4.80)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 15.1%, L7 28.6%, season 22.2%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-177) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-161) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.38)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .530
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.0%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Under 2.5 (-127) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.85 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 2.72)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 34 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .464
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 22.5%, L7 25.2%, season 23.5%, BVP 35.3%/34 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/17 (88%) | Season 15/17 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-174) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.48 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 4.99)
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .879
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.4%, season 21.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.43 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (-131) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 3.55)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .760
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 23.6%, L7 32.8%, season 24.2%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-135) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.85 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 7.42)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .091 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.5%, L7 24.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-117) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.14 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.65, ERA 2.27)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-139) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.87)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.0%, L7 23.1%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Under 2.5 (-156) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.65 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.63)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.7%, L7 22.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (55 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 19 play(s) (B 2 | C 17)

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Jose Cabrera Over 3.5 (-135) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-135	+106	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.82K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Jose Cabrera: K/9 7.7, proj 4.3K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.381 | top pitch: Sweeper (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.0%, L7 26.3%, season 23.0% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 1/3 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 23.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Davis Martin Over 4.5 (-130) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.64K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Davis Martin: K/9 7.8, proj 5.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .405
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.7%, L7 22.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.1 ppts (recent 15.6% vs season 22.7%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 4.5 (+106) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.92K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Jake Bennett: K/9 7.9, proj 5.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.263 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 27.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.6%, L7 21.4%, season 23.7%, active roster 23.0%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.43 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 3/7 over 4.5
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 23.5% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (+117) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -162 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 7.1 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -162 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 7.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	6.5	-162	+126	Recommended
BetRivers	7.5	+117	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	+117	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 43.4% / under 56.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.25K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 7.1 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Dylan Cease: K/9 14.0, proj 8.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 36.2% | put-away% 25.3% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: Changeup (60% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 19.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 100 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .256 | OPS .740
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.6%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 27.0%/100 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 8.56
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 7.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 (-112) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-112	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.67K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 7.8, proj 5.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .091 | OPS .398
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.5%, L7 24.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Slade Cecconi Under 4.5 (-161) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-158	+124	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-
DK	4.5	+126	-161	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.62K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Slade Cecconi: K/9 6.7, proj 3.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 17 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .412
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.4%, L7 25.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 5.5 (+120) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-154	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.74K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Dean Kremer: K/9 9.5, proj 6.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/3 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 27.7% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Split-Finger (45% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 44 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .806
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 18.2%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.67 | Season Avg 6.67
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-126) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-120	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.41K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Michael McGreevy: K/9 5.4, proj 3.9K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.4% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.422
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.2%, L7 18.6%, season 20.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.53
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-120) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-104	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-120	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.46K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.4, proj 5.0K over 4.5 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 18 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .062 | OPS .229
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 19.7%, L7 22.9%, season 23.8%, BVP 50.0%/18 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/17 (24%) | Season 4/17 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 (+108) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-138	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-128	-102	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.52K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.4, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 15.1%, L7 28.6%, season 22.2%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — George Kirby Under 5.5 (-162) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+126	-162	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.46K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
George Kirby: K/9 8.5, proj 5.0K over 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 16.5%, L7 16.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 21.1%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Colin Rea Under 4.5 (-127) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-101	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Colin Rea: K/9 6.6, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 43 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .243 | OPS .700
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.3%, L7 25.4%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.9%/43 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.78
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael King Under 4.5 (+107) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-137	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.32K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Michael King: K/9 7.2, proj 4.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 17.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 71 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .179 | OPS .509
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.5%, season 19.5%, active roster 17.0%/6 hitters, BVP 19.7%/71 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.7 ppts (recent 15.3% vs season 21.0%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 100 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jared Jones Under 5.5 (-150) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+118	-150	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-155	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.34K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Jared Jones: K/9 9.2, proj 5.2K over 4.2 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.7% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .879
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.4%, season 21.1%, active roster 20.7%/7 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.43 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Roki Sasaki Under 5.5 (-126) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.21K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Roki Sasaki: K/9 9.2, proj 5.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 24 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .941
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 22.0%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.0%/7 hitters, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 4.5 (+103) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.16K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.6, proj 4.7K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 39.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.409
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 18.7%, L7 28.4%, season 23.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 1/23 (4%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 (-114) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-112	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.17K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Shane McClanahan: K/9 8.8, proj 5.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Changeup: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .278 | OPS .760
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 23.6%, L7 32.8%, season 24.2%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/16 (31%) | Season 5/16 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.81
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Christian Scott Under 5.5 (+102) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-130	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 2.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.13K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Christian Scott: K/9 10.7, proj 5.4K over 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.0%, L7 23.1%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 (-130) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.01K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.2, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Changeup (53% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (7 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (+101) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+100	-140	-
DK	18.5	+101	-135	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 20.541 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 59 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .327 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 19.9%, BVP 13.6%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 6.7%, L7 6.2%, season 7.3%, BVP 5.1%/59 PA (adj 0.86x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 18.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 17.5 (-144) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 19.169999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.65 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.9%, L7 8.5%, season 8.8% (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Walbert Urena Under 17.5 (-132) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 15.93 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Walbert Ureña: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.9%, L7 16.5%, season 22.1%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 6.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 14.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +2.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (-102) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 16.226000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.40 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 71 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .179 | OPS .509
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.9%, L7 20.5%, season 19.5%, BVP 19.7%/71 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.7%, L7 8.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.6%/71 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Davis Martin Under 17.5 (-114) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 16.275 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 79)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 79
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.7%, L7 22.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.6%, split 6.9%, L7 8.8%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/21 PA (adj 0.87x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Chase Burns Over 17.5 (-118) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -118 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 18.354 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 34 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .129 | OPS .464
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 22.5%, L7 25.2%, season 23.5%, BVP 35.3%/34 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.8%, L7 8.9%, season 7.8%, BVP 8.8%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-104) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)

Proj 18.237000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 70%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.9%, L7 25.3%, season 22.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 12.7%, L7 6.1%, season 9.5% (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.86 | Season Avg 18.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/7 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Over 18.5 (+136) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+136	-183	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+138	-188	-

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)

Proj 19.207 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 3.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.65 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 16.5%, L7 16.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 9.8%, L7 11.1%, season 9.1% (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/17 (24%) | Season 4/17 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 18.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 18.5 (+118) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
DK	18.5	+118	-157	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+120	-166	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 19.157999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 100 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .256 | OPS .740
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.6%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 27.0%/100 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.2%, L7 6.4%, season 6.4%, BVP 14.0%/100 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/16 (25%) | Season 4/16 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 16.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Over 17.5 (-165) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 17.775 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .530
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.0%, L7 26.7%, season 25.1%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.6%, L7 5.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.5%/52 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (+104) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.422
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.2%, L7 18.6%, season 20.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (+110) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 6.1 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 59 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .327 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 19.9%, BVP 13.6%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Under 5.5 (-152) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.21 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .091 | OPS .398
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.5%, L7 24.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Slade Cecconi Under 5.5 (-115) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 7.3%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 17 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .412
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.4%, L7 25.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Colin Rea Under 5.5 (-134) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 43 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .243 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.3%, L7 25.4%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.9%/43 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 (-137) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.9% / under 54.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 127 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.0%, L7 22.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 18.9%/127 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.12 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/8 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Davis Martin Over 5.5 (+116) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.43, BB% 7.3%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.7%, L7 22.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Under 2.5 (-142) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.41898180298938 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 5.5 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 100 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .256 | OPS .740
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.6%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 27.0%/100 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.2%, L7 6.4%, season 6.4%, BVP 14.0%/100 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-102) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4658256784960115 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.1 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.86x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 59 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .327 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 19.9%, BVP 13.6%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 6.7%, L7 6.2%, season 7.3%, BVP 5.1%/59 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Spencer Arrighetti Under 3.5 (-164) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -164 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.56, ERA 5.05)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 36 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 19.4% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.5%, L7 19.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/36 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-107) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.64, ERA 3.86)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 18 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .062 | OPS .229
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 19.7%, L7 22.9%, season 23.8%, BVP 50.0%/18 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-134) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.34 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.92, ERA 3.37)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.6%, L7 21.4%, season 23.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-141) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 3.31)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Walbert Ureña: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.9%, L7 16.5%, season 22.1%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Over 2.5 (-112) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.14 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 6.03)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 24 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .941
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 22.0%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-149) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.44 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 3.56, ERA 3.31)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 59 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .327 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.4%, season 19.9%, BVP 13.6%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Colin Rea Over 2.5 (-136) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.27 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 4.95)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 43 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .243 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 23.3%, L7 25.4%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.9%/43 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-142) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 2.80)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 19.9%, L7 25.3%, season 22.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.43 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (+110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.36 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.62, ERA 2.62)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 100 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .256 | OPS .740
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.6%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 27.0%/100 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Harrison Over 1.5 (-170) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.12 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.07, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .105 | OPS .211
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 15.4%, L7 19.6%, season 20.3%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-132) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 3.75)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 44 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .806
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.2%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.60 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.65, ERA 3.84)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 16.5%, L7 16.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-146) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.65)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 127 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.0%, L7 22.0%, season 18.9%, BVP 18.9%/127 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.38 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Slade Cecconi Under 2.5 (-108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.04)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 17 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .412
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.4%, L7 25.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (-122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -122 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 3.22)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.422
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.2%, L7 18.6%, season 20.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Cabrera Under 2.5 (-133) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.99 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 4.52)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.0%, L7 26.3%, season 23.0% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-120) Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.75 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.59, ERA 4.48)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.409
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 18.7%, L7 28.4%, season 23.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/23 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	74.9	81.5	75.0	6	Changeup (60% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 36.2%, put-away 25.3%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	68.3	70.2	71.5	3	Slider (53% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	65.3	62.6	71.5	4	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 59% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Steven Cruz	Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	64.0	77.5	52.0	3	Cutter (37% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 33.3%, put-away 27.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	63.1	62.2	66.5	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	60.5	71.4	53.5	6	Split-Finger (45% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 27.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	60.4	48.3	76.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	58.8	72.2	45.0	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 32.7%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	58.3	50.2	70.5	6	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	54.6	56.6	55.0	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	52.8	40.1	65.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	52.1	55.8	50.5	6	Slider (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	51.2	44.6	57.5	6	Sweeper (27% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros	50.9	51.9	52.0	7	Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	50.4	58.3	47.5	4	Changeup (35% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies	50.1	58.6	39.5	3	Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	49.1	46.9	51.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	48.4	59.1	40.5	7	Curveball (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals	47.4	55.5	40.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	47.2	52.6	42.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays	46.8	43.3	52.5	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.7	53.6	43.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	46.0	47.1	42.0	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners	46.0	51.9	39.0	6	Curveball (45% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	42.9	41.0	43.5	7	Curveball (31% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	40.1	37.2	43.5	2	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 66% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 5.9%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 2 pitch type(s)
Jose Cabrera	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	36.0	48.6	17.0	6	Sweeper (46% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.381, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	34.0	38.2	29.0	7	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	31.8	36.6	27.5	7	Changeup (26% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jose Cabrera	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	R	19.9%	4.4	4.4	5.2	74	short	full	17.00	83.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	L	19.0%	4.5	5.2	5.0	76	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	18.6%	3.7	4.9	4.7	62	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	R	26.6%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	L	21.9%	5.9	5.8	5.8	99	normal	full	76.00	24.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	R	16.0%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	R	20.2%	4.7	5.7	5.5	79	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	29.8%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.1%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	22.0%	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	full	43.50	56.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%, recent_form_unavailable
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	R	21.8%	6.2	6.3	6.1	104	deep	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	R	25.6%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Steven Cruz	Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	R	28.5%	1.0	1.3	4.5	17	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	R	22.4%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies	R	23.0%	4.7	5.0	4.9	79	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.0%	5.0	4.9	5.1	84	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	29.4%	4.3	5.0	4.8	72	short	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	L	23.5%	5.6	5.1	5.2	94	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals	R	27.3%	4.5	4.5	4.5	76	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	23.2%	4.8	5.3	5.3	80	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	R	23.9%	3.8	4.1	4.5	64	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	19.0%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	20.5%	6.8	6.2	6.3	114	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.9%
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	R	22.2%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	15.2%	5.8	5.6	5.7	97	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	L	22.7%	4.8	5.0	4.9	80	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	26.1%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	R	37.6%	5.5	5.7	5.6	92	normal	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros	L	24.3%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

12/12 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Roki Sasaki	Roki Sasaki Under	Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	13.5	-4.0	23.1%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	4.9	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Under	New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	14.0	-3.5	20.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.3	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	20.5	2.0	11.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Walbert Urena	Walbert Urena Under	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Davis Martin	Davis Martin Under	Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	16.3	-1.2	7.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chase Burns	Chase Burns Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	18.4	0.8	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Athletics @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	18.2	0.7	4.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins	18.5	19.2	0.7	3.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	19.2	0.7	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	Blended market direction + consensus lean % across available books	Blended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 4 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes