MLB Betting Analyzer

Friday, June 12 2026  |  Run at 7:06 AM
Game Bets · NRFI · K Props · Batter Props · Injuries · Weather
Odds API Quota
13723 / 20000 requests used (6277 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

RecordWin%P&L
Overall771W–511L–0P60%-51.75 uLast 14 days • 1282 settled
Grade A42W–35L–0P55%-3.76 u
Grade B729W–476L–0P60%-47.99 u

All-time

RecordWin%P&L
Overall1334W–1035L–7P56%-124.84 uAll-time • 2376 settled
Grade A155W–124L–0P56%-8.54 u
Grade B1179W–911L–7P56%-116.30 u
32 pending

Pending Bets

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-05-11Pitcher Hits AllowNathan Eovaldi5.5-143-PENDING-
2026-05-14Batter Total BasesByron Buxton1.5-121-PENDING-
2026-05-17Batter Total BasesShea Langeliers1.5-138-PENDING-
2026-05-20Batter Total BasesKyle Schwarber1.5-131-PENDING-
2026-06-01K PropChase Burns6.5-148-PENDING-
2026-06-08Batter WalksRodolfo Duran0.5-368-PENDING-
2026-06-09Batter WalksTyler Freeman0.5-440-PENDING-
2026-06-11Batter HitsJake McCarthy1.5-258-PENDING-
2026-06-11Batter WalksIldemaro Vargas0.5-434-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIAndy Pages1.5-156-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIBen Rice1.5-115-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIBrandon Lowe1.5-140-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIBrice Turang1.5-128-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBICorbin Carroll1.5-158-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIDillon Dingler1.5-136-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIIldemaro Vargas1.5-137-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIKyle Karros2.5-159-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIRandy Arozarena1.5-155-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIShohei Ohtani1.5-152-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter H+R+RBIWilliam Contreras1.5-140-PENDING-
2026-06-12Batter Total BasesByron Buxton1.5-114-PENDING-
2026-06-12K PropBryce Miller4.5-133-PENDING-
2026-06-12K PropShane Baz5.5-151-PENDING-
2026-06-12K PropShane McClanahan5.5-156-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Earned RunAnthony Kay2.5-120-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Earned RunBraxton Ashcraft2.5-147-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Earned RunGage Jump3.5-144-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Earned RunJacob Misiorowski1.5-133-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Earned RunNick Lodolo2.5-119-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Earned RunSandy Alcantara2.5-152-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Hits AllowGage Jump6.5-147-PENDING-
2026-06-12Pitcher Hits AllowSonny Gray5.5-129-PENDING-

Recent Grade A Settled

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-06-11K PropKumar Rocker3.5-132-LOSS-1.000Kumar Rocker: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-06-11K PropBryan Woo6.5125-LOSS-1.000Bryan Woo: 4.0 (line 6.5)
2026-06-11Batter H+R+RBIAlec Burleson1.5-132-WIN+0.758Alec Burleson: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-11Batter H+R+RBIJuan Soto1.5-150-WIN+0.667Juan Soto: 5.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED25256%-6.83u4556%-0.70u12158%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED20259%+13.29u6458%+2.01u250%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED13353%-4.85u3060%+1.42u4163%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH32369%-12.08u30769%-15.52u0-134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH7560%+3.52u5655%-1.89u0-9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH6367%+6.24u4770%+7.24u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3184%+5.61u1191%+3.17u0-23
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH2756%+0.90u3100%+2.32u0-37
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH7742%-13.96u250%-0.23u10%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH4636%-11.33u425%-2.05u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u10%-1.00u0-6
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED43750%-53.23u3067%+4.41u6250%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/4season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted4/514d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted5/5No blocker
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research3/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix
ComponentStatusCurrent UsageRecommendation ImpactNext Action
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 3 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 252, 14d N 45Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 2 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 202, 14d N 64Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 133, 14d N 30Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessmentLIVEShared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch QualityLIVEFree public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player ContextLIVEHome/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 38 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 11Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 127 total candidate(s); season N 27, 14d N 3Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 77, 14d N 2Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.Validate forward results before promotion.
Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 4Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 11 actionable / 234 total candidate(s); season N 437, 14d N 30No actionable recommendations.🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research⛔ PAUSEDShadow component research; 234 candidate(s) emitted.No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI ReviewAPI ERROROptional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run
✓READYAvailableSavant: 681 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓READYAvailableSavant 1st-inn: 278 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓READYAvailableTeam NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5
✓READYAvailablePitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 179 team×pitch-type combinations
✓READYAvailablePitcher arsenal: 668 pitcher(s), 2882 pitch-type profiles
✓READYAvailableBatter pitch-type profiles: 511 player(s)
✓READYAvailableHandedness: 28 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓READYAvailableTeam recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴LATE DATANon-blockingLineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓READYAvailableBVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) | 28 SP matchup(s), 1043 career PA
✓READYAvailableBatter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴LATE DATANon-blockingUmpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓READYAvailableRest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals
✓READYAvailableBullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds
✓READYAvailableBullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓READYAvailableWeather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓READYAvailableLine movement: 2202 market side(s) checked | 1354 opening snapshot(s) created | 732 with movement
✓READYAvailableMarket health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓READYAvailablePlayer context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹPARTIALNon-blockingF5: 15 game(s) fetched | 0 with ML odds | 15 with total odds | 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓READYAvailableHRR research: 234 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓READYAvailableNo-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob
✓READYAvailableHR layers: batter Statcast 551 | batter bats 398 | batter hand splits 158 | pitcher HR splits 65 | batter pitch-type 511 | bullpen HR 31
✓READYAvailableHR model: 261 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction
MatchupTime (ET)Away MLHome MLAway RLHome RLTotalCon ML
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM+119-143+1.5 (-167)-1.5 (+138)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals6:46 PM-148+123-1.5 (+109)+1.5 (-132)O/U 9.5AWAYBet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles7:06 PM+119-144+1.5 (-167)-1.5 (+137)O/U 9.0HOMEBet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox7:11 PM+113-136+1.5 (-193)-1.5 (+158)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PM-102-119-1.5 (+159)+1.5 (-194)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets7:15 PM-105-114-1.5 (+157)+1.5 (-191)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PM-117-103-1.5 (+139)+1.5 (-168)O/U 9.5AWAYBet on DK
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays7:37 PM-107-112-1.5 (+157)+1.5 (-191)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PM-148+123-1.5 (+113)+1.5 (-136)O/U 9.0AWAYBet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers7:41 PM+209-259+1.5 (-104)-1.5 (-115)O/U 7.5HOMEBet on DK
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals8:11 PM-119-102-1.5 (+134)+1.5 (-162)O/U 9.0AWAYBet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PM+119-143+1.5 (-171)-1.5 (+141)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels9:39 PM-181+149-1.5 (-109)+1.5 (-110)O/U 8.5AWAYBet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PM+162-198+1.5 (-112)-1.5 (-108)O/U 13.5HOMEBet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PM-107-112-1.5 (+159)+1.5 (-194)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

2 Grade A | 21 Grade B | 744 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 2 play(s)

GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffChecks ✓!✗–Rec
A ⭐ TOP PICK⭐ Top Pick
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -137, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch
K PropBryce Miller OverMAR@NAT6:46 PM4.56.7-137BetRivers Over 4.5 -127 | best price48.4%✓✓✓✓––BEST PLAY
A✅ Best Play
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash
K PropShane McClanahan OverRAY@ANG9:39 PM5.56.5-156BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price18.6%✓✓✓✓––BEST PLAY

✓ PASS   ! WARN   ✗ FAIL   – N/A  |  Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

Checks: Baby Line | Model Edge | Books Agree | Matchup | Role/Injury | Game Script - 2 Grade A | 21 Grade B | 744 Review-Only | 1 Top Pick(s)
⭐ TOP PICKS — 100% book consensus (all books agree) + projection 1.5+ over the line
A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-137) diff 48.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -127 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓✓––   ► BEST PLAY
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 48.4% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.18K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Bryce Miller: K/9 9.3, proj 6.7K over 5.9 IP (season 6.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.214 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.95x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.80
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -133->-137)
  • A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%
⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -137, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 (-156) diff 18.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓✓––   ► BEST PLAY
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.6% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.02K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Shane McClanahan: K/9 8.8, proj 6.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 48 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .196 | OPS .447
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 48 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.8%, BVP 27.1%/48 PA (adj 1.06x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 6.5->5.5, odds +102->-156)
  • A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%
⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note
▼ Good Adds — Grade B (21 play(s))
▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)
B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-144) diff 18.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!✓––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.5% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.02K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Shane Baz: K/9 7.8, proj 4.5K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s))
  • Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 4.5% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.8%, L7 21.1%, season 23.3%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.08
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -151->-144)
⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture
▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Under 6.5 (-147) diff 29.2% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 4.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 29.2% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 8.1%)
  • Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 99)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 26.5%, L7 22.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/3 under 6.5
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-129) diff 16.4% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.4%)
  • Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .207 | OPS .514
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.6%, BVP 28.1%/89 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.91
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 3.5 (-144) diff 34.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 34.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 3.40)
  • Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 99)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 26.5%, L7 22.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 3.5
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (-119) diff 28.0% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 3.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.40 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.51, ERA 5.02)
  • Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 28 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .863
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 13.6%, L7 22.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/6 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-133) diff 26.7% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 1.58 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.26, ERA 1.11)
  • Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 95)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.133
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (-152) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -152 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.39 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.63)
  • Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 14.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .856
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.7%, L7 23.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.07
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-147) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.06 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 3.59)
  • Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 13.9%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Over 2.5 (-120) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.11 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 4.17)
  • Workload blend: 5.2 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 110)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS 1.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.9%, season 20.1% (adj 0.95x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/13 (23%) | Season 3/13 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.31
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 11 play(s) (B 11)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-156) diff 104.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 3.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 104.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.53
  • Base projection 2.53 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.641 (19 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/68 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.53
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 23/35 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.63 | Day Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.53
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), heavy juice -156 -- B risk note
⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-158) diff 82.1% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
  • Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.25x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.548 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/65 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/34 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 37/65 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -158 -- B risk note
⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-152) diff 78.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
  • Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.286 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 38/63 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.57
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 24/33 over 1.5 (73%), avg 3.06 | Day Batter HRR: 38/63 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.57
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -152 -- B risk note
⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-128) diff 78.2% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
  • Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.411 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/34 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-115) diff 73.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.60
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/62 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/27 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.80 | Day Batter HRR: 35/62 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.60
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-140) diff 72.9% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -134 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
  • Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.477 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/62 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.40
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-140) diff 69.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
  • Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.531 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 22 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.193
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 22 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.33
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-137) diff 69.3% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -132 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
  • Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.360 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 30/59 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 2.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.85 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 17/27 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 0% + L5 0% (both cold) — risk note
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 0%, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-155) diff 68.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.418 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/70 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -155 -- B risk note
⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-136) diff 67.8% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
  • Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.477, xSLG 0.775 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/62 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.26
⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B GOOD ADD ⛔ Paused Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Under 2.5 (-159) diff 51.0% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.22 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.32
  • Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.284 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/65 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.32
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/31 under 2.5 (81%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 26/34 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter HRR: 51/65 under 2.5 (78%), avg 1.32
⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
▸ Batter Total Bases — 1 play(s) (B 1)
B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-122) diff 80.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.29
  • Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/58 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.29
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.29
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -114->-122)
▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (744 signal(s))
▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (B 10 | C 16)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 (+127) diff 43.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 43.7% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.40K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 3/5 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.60)
  • Roki Sasaki: K/9 9.6, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 39.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.6%, L7 22.5%, season 23.9% (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.45
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
  • K% trend: support +5.8 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 24.3%, proj adj +2.9%)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Littell Over 3.5 (-102) diff 41.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 41.5% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.45K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (6 books): 0/6 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Zack Littell: K/9 6.4, proj 5.0K over 6.5 IP (season 7.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s))
  • Savant: whiff% 16.6% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.373 | top pitch: Slider (22% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 29% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 32 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .161 | OPS .381
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 32 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.8%, L7 19.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 34.4%/32 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5
  • K% trend: support +6.0 ppts (recent 20.0% vs season 14.0%, proj adj +3.0%)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->-102)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (-110) diff 23.3% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 -104 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.3% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.98K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 12.9, proj 10.5K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 38.4% | put-away% 34.3% | xwOBA 0.238 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.133
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, active roster 22.7%/8 hitters, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 8.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -117->-110)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (-101) diff 22.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.0% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.21K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.0, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .962
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 47 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.1%, L7 21.2%, season 19.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.58
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +109->-101)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Spencer Strider Over 5.5 (-144) diff 17.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -122 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.97K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Spencer Strider: K/9 9.7, proj 6.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 32.7% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (52% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Strider: 61 PA | K% 24.6% | BB% 13.1% | AVG .170 | OPS .581
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 61 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.4%, L7 23.4%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.6%/6 hitters, BVP 24.6%/61 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.14 | Season Avg 6.14
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 5.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -140->-144)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 (-170) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.56K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.5, proj 4.1K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.390 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .542
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.3%, L7 18.8%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -161->-170)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (-140) diff 15.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 15.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.84K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 9.9, proj 6.3K over 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 25.8% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 13.9%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.62
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -116->-140)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 (-130) diff 14.8% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.67K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.20)
  • Tatsuya Imai: K/9 8.7, proj 5.2K over 4.7 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.0%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.9%/8 hitters (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -132->-130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.67 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.67 (6 books) — posture note at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 3.5 (-135) diff 12.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -134 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Andrew Painter: K/9 7.2, proj 3.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.3%, L7 21.6%, season 20.8%, active roster 19.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -156->-135)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Jack Flaherty Over 4.5 (-167) diff 12.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.55K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (6 books): 3/6 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.50)
  • Jack Flaherty: K/9 11.1, proj 5.1K over 4.7 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 119 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .218 | OPS .653
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 119 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 14.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 24.4%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
  • K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 29.7% vs season 26.3%, proj adj +1.7%)
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 5.5->4.5, odds +125->-167)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.93 (7 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.93 (7 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 3.5 (+106) diff 67.4% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 67.4% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.36K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Luinder Avila: K/9 7.9, proj 5.9K over 5.9 IP (season 10.4 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s))
  • Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 28.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 3/12 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/12 (17%) | Season 2/12 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
  • Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -106->+106)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Javier Assad Under 3.5 (-154) diff 19.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -144 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.68K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Javier Assad: K/9 6.9, proj 2.8K over 5.6 IP (season 10.7 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s))
  • Savant: whiff% 15.1% | put-away% 12.7% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .179 | OPS .487
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.8%, L7 17.9%, season 20.8%, active roster 18.8%/6 hitters, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/9 (89%) | L20 8/9 (89%) | Season 8/9 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.11 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: K L10: 8/9 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -144->-154)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 (+103) diff 18.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.4% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.83K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.8, proj 3.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 13.3% | xwOBA 0.391 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 28 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .863
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 13.6%, L7 22.8%, season 20.5%, active roster 17.8%/6 hitters, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.17 | Season Avg 4.17
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 under 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -101->+103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (5 books) clears, but raw gap -0.83 <= 1 min
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (5 books) clears, but raw gap -0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Samuel Aldegheri Under 3.5 (-163) diff 17.8% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -154 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.62K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Samuel Aldegheri: K/9 7.5, proj 2.9K over 4.2 IP (season 12.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/4 start(s))
  • Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 13.1% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 20.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.1%, L7 20.5%, season 19.0% (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -153->-163)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -0.62 <= 1 min
⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-153) diff 12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.71K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (6 books): 0/6 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Sonny Gray: K/9 8.1, proj 4.8K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .207 | OPS .514
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 89 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.6%, active roster 19.2%/7 hitters, BVP 28.1%/89 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: support +6.5 ppts (recent 25.4% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +3.3%)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -137->-153)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (7 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (-171) diff 12.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.57K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.50)
  • Anthony Kay: K/9 7.2, proj 3.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s))
  • Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 12.6% | xwOBA 0.372 | top pitch: Sweeper (29% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS 1.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.9%, L7 19.9%, season 20.1%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.95x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.54
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using blended line 4.1 (5 books)
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using blended line 4.1 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (-161) diff 11.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.65K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Landen Roupp: K/9 9.6, proj 4.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 65 PA | K% 16.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .300 | OPS .837
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 65 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.6%, L7 22.4%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 16.9%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 4.5->5.5, odds +125->-161)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (-104) diff 9.3% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (6 books): 0/6 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Sandy Alcantara: K/9 6.7, proj 4.9K over 6.3 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 14.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .856
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 90 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.7%, L7 23.5%, season 23.5%, active roster 20.1%/6 hitters, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.57
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +104->-104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-132) diff 8.1% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -128 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.8, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 19.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Curveball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 43.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .261 | OPS .659
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 51 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.38
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -134->-132)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books)
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 134 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-140) diff 7.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.6, proj 5.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Cutter (37% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Cutter: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 211 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .247 | OPS .702
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 211 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.8%/211 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 14.6% vs season 19.9%, proj adj -2.6%)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -160->-140)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books)
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 5.5 (+111) diff 6.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +118 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Nolan McLean: K/9 9.5, proj 5.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 23.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 12 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .333
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.0%, L7 18.3%, season 20.5%, active roster 20.9%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.31
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 20.2% vs season 27.4%, proj adj -3.6%)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +119->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (5 books)
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-160) diff 5.8% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.32K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.20)
  • Gage Jump: K/9 7.5, proj 5.2K over 5.7 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
  • Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 13.8% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (24% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 26.5%, L7 22.6%, season 23.8%, active roster 24.0%/6 hitters (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trey Yesavage Under 6.5 (-162) diff 5.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.32K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Trey Yesavage: K/9 9.0, proj 6.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: Split-Finger (43% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, L7 22.5%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/8 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 5.5->6.5, odds +116->-162)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Leiter Over 5.5 (+121) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.17K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 2/5 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.40)
  • Jack Leiter: K/9 9.3, proj 5.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 26 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.2%, L7 22.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.85
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
  • Line movement: against this side (line 4.5->5.5, odds -146->+121)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using blended line 5.17 (6 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using blended line 5.17 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Joe Ryan Under 6.5 (-143) diff 2.8% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.18K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Joe Ryan: K/9 10.3, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.258
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 24 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.1%, active roster 20.5%/7 hitters, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5
  • K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 30.7% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.7%)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -153->-143)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Griffin Canning Over 4.5 (-115) diff 0.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.03K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (6 books): 0/6 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Griffin Canning: K/9 8.6, proj 4.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 42 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .325 | OPS .958
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 42 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.1%, L7 22.7%, season 23.4%, BVP 14.3%/42 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -105->-115)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 18.5 (+129) diff 19.1% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 18.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 22.037999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 114
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.133
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.4%, L7 11.3%, season 8.2%, BVP 0.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 18.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +130->+129)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 (-118) diff 14.2% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -114 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 15.017 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.2% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 60%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 28 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .863
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 13.6%, L7 22.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.0%, L7 8.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.0%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.33 | Season Avg 16.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/6 under 17.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -111->-118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.2% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap -2.48 <= 3 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.2% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap -2.48 <= 3 min — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 18.5 (+119) diff 8.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (23)
  • Proj 20.063 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.4% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 102
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 13.9%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.89x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.8%, L7 10.2%, season 9.0% (adj 1.08x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.1%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 18.38
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Line movement: against this side (line 17.5->18.5, odds -160->+119)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Joe Ryan Over 17.5 (-138) diff 5.8% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 18.521 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.258
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.5%, L7 10.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -172->-138)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-119) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -118 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)
  • Proj 18.351 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .261 | OPS .659
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 13.8%, L7 9.6%, season 10.1%, BVP 9.8%/51 PA (adj 1.17x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.2%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.1%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.15
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -117->-119)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Over 18.5 (+129) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)
  • Proj 19.386999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, low-K contact opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .962
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.1%, L7 21.2%, season 19.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 8.6%, L7 6.2%, season 7.5%, BVP 4.3%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
  • Line movement: against this side (line 17.5->18.5, odds -121->+129)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.9 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.9 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jack Leiter Under 17.5 (-106) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 16.732000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.2%, L7 22.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.8%, L7 4.1%, season 7.7%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.38
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-106)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+105) diff 3.9% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (23)
  • Proj 19.213 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 14.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .856
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.7%, L7 23.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 11.7%, L7 9.2%, season 10.0%, BVP 14.4%/90 PA (adj 1.16x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.1%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 19.14
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.44 vs season
  • Line movement: against this side (line 17.5->18.5, odds -166->+105)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (-118) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 17.236 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 211 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .247 | OPS .702
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.8%/211 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.6%, L7 9.7%, season 10.0%, BVP 7.6%/211 PA (adj 1.08x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -122->-118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Under 17.5 (+106) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 17.270999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 12 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .333
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.0%, L7 18.3%, season 20.5% (adj 0.94x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.1%, L7 8.2%, season 8.2% (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.69
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -113->+106)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-111) diff 16.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -111 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 8.4%)
  • Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .261 | OPS .659
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Leiter Under 5.5 (-102) diff 12.7% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -102 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 9.8%)
  • Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.2%, L7 22.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 (-139) diff 12.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.47, BB% 9.0%)
  • Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 28 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .863
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 13.6%, L7 22.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.83 | Season Avg 5.83
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/6 over 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-116) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 9.0%)
  • Workload blend: 5.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 90)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 4.5% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.8%, L7 21.1%, season 23.3%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.85
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Under 5.5 (-105) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 7.2%)
  • Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .962
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.1%, L7 21.2%, season 19.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 (+103) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 +103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 6.3 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 5.9%)
  • Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 14.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .856
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.7%, L7 23.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using blended line 6.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using blended line 6.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-115) Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 5.3%)
  • Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 13.9%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.31
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 5.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Trey Yesavage Over 1.5 (-167) diff 53.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.70 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 3.96)
  • Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
  • DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- DK LOWER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 106)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, L7 22.5%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.88 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/8 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (-171) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.56 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 3.22)
  • Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 48 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .196 | OPS .447
  • Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.8%, BVP 27.1%/48 PA (adj 1.06x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.58
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-117) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact
Checks: ✓!!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.19 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.55, ERA 5.63)
  • Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.3%, L7 21.6%, season 20.8% (adj 0.95x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-157) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.68 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.49, ERA 4.62)
  • Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 100)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 65 PA | K% 16.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .300 | OPS .837
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.6%, L7 22.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 16.9%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.38
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Javier Assad Over 2.5 (+119) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +119 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.49 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 4.43)
  • Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 10.7 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .179 | OPS .487
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.8%, L7 17.9%, season 20.8%, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/9 (22%) | L20 2/9 (22%) | Season 2/9 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.89 | Season Avg 1.89
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/9 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.88 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 3.30)
  • Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .207 | OPS .514
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.6%, BVP 28.1%/89 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Canning Under 2.5 (-116) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 5.58)
  • Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 42 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .325 | OPS .958
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.1%, L7 22.7%, season 23.4%, BVP 14.3%/42 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.29 | Season Avg 3.29
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/7 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 (-124) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.83 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 3.43)
  • Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 103)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.6%, L7 22.5%, season 23.9% (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Luinder Avila Over 2.5 (+111) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.17 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 3.60)
  • Workload blend: 5.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 10.4 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 28.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/12 (17%) | Season 2/12 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.17
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-120) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.71 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 4.68)
  • Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 96)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.0%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (+101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 3.45)
  • Workload blend: 5.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 90)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 4.5% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.8%, L7 21.1%, season 23.3%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.69
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Leiter Over 2.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.43 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 4.63)
  • Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.2%, L7 22.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.85
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Flaherty Under 2.5 (-159) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.76 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 4.99)
  • Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 119 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .218 | OPS .653
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 14.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 24.4%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.64
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (+104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.08)
  • Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 211 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .247 | OPS .702
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.8%/211 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (+108) Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.86 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 2.71)
  • Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .261 | OPS .659
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-133) Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 4.30)
  • Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 46.6% / under 53.4%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .962
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.1%, L7 21.2%, season 19.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
▸ Batter Hits — 38 play(s) (C 38)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-232) diff 58.2% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.66 (AVG 0.226)
  • Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/31 (32%) | L5 4/14 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/65 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.66
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/31 under 1.5 (87%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Hits: 30/34 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Hits: 57/65 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.66
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-246) diff 52.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 0.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.74 (AVG 0.211)
  • Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 7/41 (17%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/66 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.74
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/33 under 1.5 (91%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Hits: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 57/66 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.74
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-274) diff 43.0% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price
Checks: ✓!!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +187->-274)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-257) diff 43.0% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +178->-257)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-218) diff 43.0% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price
Checks: ✓!!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -213->-218)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-199) diff 42.2% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.269)
  • Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/57 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.93
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter Hits: 23/28 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.93
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-260) diff 41.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -271->-260)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 0.83 (3 books): market gap +0.04; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 0.83 (3 books): market gap +0.04; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Zack Gelof Under 1.5 (-244) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -244 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-257) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Brent Rooker Under 1.5 (-207) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Carlos Cortes Under 1.5 (-229) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-269) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-195) diff 41.5% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.88 (AVG 0.238)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/33 (33%) | L5 6/16 (38%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/65 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.88
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/28 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 28/37 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter Hits: 51/65 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-235) diff 40.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.270)
  • Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 7/33 (21%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/66 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.94
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 51/66 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-211) diff 39.5% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -211 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.244)
  • Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.382 (40 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/63 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.92
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/31 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter Hits: 23/32 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 49/63 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-227) diff 39.0% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.265)
  • Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.356 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 16 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | OPS .327
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 7/38 (18%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/69 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.94
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/36 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Hits: 49/69 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.94
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -247->-227)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-261) diff 35.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.271)
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230 (23 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 1/25 (4%) | L5 0/6 (0%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/63 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -252->-261)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 (-250) diff 35.3% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.291)
  • Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/43 (30%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.95
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 25/29 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter Hits: 47/63 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -251->-250)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Nick Kurtz Under 1.5 (-195) diff 32.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.283)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/35 (29%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/67 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.01
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 26/36 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 47/67 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.01
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-240) diff 30.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.278)
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.310 (30 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/36 (31%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/65 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 25/32 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 49/65 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.05
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -231->-240)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-208) diff 29.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.255)
  • Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.370 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/42 (31%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/70 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.91
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/35 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 28/35 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 58/70 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.91
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -223->-208)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-270) diff 29.6% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.290)
  • Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.325 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/65 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.14
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.14
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -260->-270)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using blended line 1.17 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-213) diff 27.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.257)
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.243 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/65 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -223->-213)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-254) diff 22.2% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -254 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.275)
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 3/25 (12%) | L5 0/8 (0%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 45/59 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/32 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 45/59 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -263->-254)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 0.83 (3 books): market gap +0.34; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 0.83 (3 books): market gap +0.34; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-221) diff 21.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.281)
  • Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.410 (12 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 9/23 (39%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/66 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/37 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 23/29 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 48/66 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -224->-221)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Shea Langeliers Under 1.5 (-151) diff 21.5% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.283)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/46 (24%) | L5 7/26 (27%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.18
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 23/34 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-258) diff 21.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.284)
  • Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.258 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/40 (35%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/66 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/34 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 18/32 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 44/66 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.17 (3 books): market gap +0.01; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.17 (3 books): market gap +0.01; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-213) diff 21.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.37 (AVG 0.344)
  • Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.196 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 17/43 (40%) | L5 11/22 (50%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/68 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.37
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/38 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.37
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -201->-213)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-274) diff 20.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.278)
  • Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358 (46 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/69 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/35 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 24/34 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 50/69 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.10
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +197->-274)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-262) diff 19.8% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.316)
  • Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.405 (35 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/34 (38%) | L5 5/16 (31%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/69 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.13
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/35 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 25/34 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 46/69 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -247->-262)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 (-261) diff 19.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.290)
  • Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/70 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.07
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/35 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 22/35 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter Hits: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +192->-261)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 0.83 (3 books): market gap +0.37; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 0.83 (3 books): market gap +0.37; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-181) diff 19.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.254)
  • Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402 (44 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/40 (20%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/70 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.03
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 25/35 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -196->-181)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-257) diff 19.0% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.256)
  • Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -249->-257)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-216) diff 18.3% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.248)
  • Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 6/40 (15%) | L5 4/22 (18%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/64 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 45/64 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -202->-216)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-240) diff 16.8% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.280)
  • Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.404 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/65 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.03
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/34 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +197->-240)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.17 (3 books): market gap +0.08; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.17 (3 books): market gap +0.08; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-245) diff 14.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.282)
  • Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.445 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/45 (22%) | L5 6/24 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/68 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.09
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 29/35 under 1.5 (83%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 51/68 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-165) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.331)
  • Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334 (25 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 16/40 (40%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/62 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.27
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-269) diff 10.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.327)
  • Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.315 (112 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 16/45 (36%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/66 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter Hits: 23/37 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 39/66 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -236->-269)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
▸ Batter Walks — 3 play(s) (C 3)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 (+128) diff 24.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.62
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/66 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.62
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/30 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 15/36 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 30/66 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-192) diff 18.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -192 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.41
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/64 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/30 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 24/34 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 42/64 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+130) diff 9.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.55
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/62 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.55
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/27 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 13/35 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 23/62 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D
▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 223 play(s) (C 223)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (-106) diff 85.0% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/64 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/33 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+119) diff 82.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
  • Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.405, xSLG 0.672 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/69 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/35 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.80 | Away Batter HRR: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.49
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-111) diff 68.7% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
  • Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.395 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/58 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.38
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.38
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+108) diff 67.0% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.601 (44 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/70 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 41/70 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-145) diff 64.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
  • Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.320 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/66 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/34 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 38/66 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-111) diff 62.7% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.68
  • Base projection 2.68 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.383 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/65 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.68
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 20/30 over 1.5 (67%), avg 3.00 | Day Batter HRR: 39/65 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-110) diff 58.2% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.784 (14 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 31 PA | 8/28 | HR 0 | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .712
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 31 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/69 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-124) diff 57.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.458 (80 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 37/61 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 24/36 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-130) diff 56.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.455 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/61 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/24 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 16/37 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-107) diff 54.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
  • Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.304 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/68 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.51
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/33 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 24/35 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.86 | Day Batter HRR: 42/68 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.51
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-102) diff 54.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.395 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/65 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 20/33 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 36/65 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-111) diff 53.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.386 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/66 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 36/66 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-122) diff 53.2% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.423, xSLG 0.545 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/66 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 22/33 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 37/66 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-121) diff 52.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
  • Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.385 (112 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/66 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/29 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 17/37 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 37/66 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-122) diff 52.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.497, xSLG 0.793 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 31/64 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-119) diff 49.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
  • Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.443 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/69 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-107) diff 48.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-101) diff 48.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/66 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/30 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.83 | Away Batter HRR: 21/36 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 40/66 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (-129) diff 48.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.354 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/63 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/28 over 1.5 (75%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 38/63 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-115) diff 47.8% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.367 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/67 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/34 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-130) diff 47.6% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
  • Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.437 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/65 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.42
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 19/30 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter HRR: 40/65 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.42
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-130) diff 47.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
  • Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.384 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/67 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-130) diff 46.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.355 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 19/30 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-135) diff 45.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
  • Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.302 (15 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/54 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+105) diff 44.8% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-127) diff 44.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.268 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/70 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 39/70 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-124) diff 44.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.352 (24 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-103) diff 43.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.183, xSLG 0.214 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-144) diff 43.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.457 (46 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/69 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-158) diff 39.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
  • Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.391 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 16 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | OPS .327
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/69 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/36 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-122) diff 39.5% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
  • Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.344 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 30 PA | 8/29 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 3.3% | OPS .817
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 30 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/70 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.96
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/34 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 16/36 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-131) diff 39.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.55
  • Base projection 2.55 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.421, xSLG 0.687 (41 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/69 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.55
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.75 | Away Batter HRR: 19/37 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-123) diff 38.6% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
  • Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.294 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/68 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 37/68 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (-119) diff 38.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
  • Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.430, xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/65 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 32/65 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-149) diff 38.0% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
  • Base projection 2.43 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.196, xSLG 0.266 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/68 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.43
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/38 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/30 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 47/68 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.43
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brent Rooker Under 2.5 (-105) diff 37.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Under 2.5 (-138) diff 37.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -132 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Under 2.5 (-139) diff 37.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-145) diff 37.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.265 (50 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.569
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 34/69 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-131) diff 36.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.492 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/65 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 18/34 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-103) diff 36.7% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.405 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/66 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 23/37 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 33/66 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-122) diff 36.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.297 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/63 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-132) diff 36.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.519 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/67 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-128) diff 35.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
  • Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.532 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 19 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.3% | BB% 31.6% | OPS .705
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 19 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/51 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.76 | Away Batter HRR: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-128) diff 34.2% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.458 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/57 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Chapman Over 1.5 (+116) diff 34.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.278 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 32/68 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +2.00 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Under 2.5 (-144) diff 33.8% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.337 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/57 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/29 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 21/28 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 39/57 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-126) diff 33.8% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.482, xSLG 0.818 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .851
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 32/66 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-134) diff 33.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
  • Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.157, xSLG 0.169 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/64 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.76 | Day Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+106) diff 33.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.326 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/65 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 32/65 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-117) diff 32.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
  • Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.254 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/68 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/36 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 38/68 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+109) diff 32.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.405 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/65 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 22/33 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 39/65 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 30.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.422, xSLG 0.667 (20 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/64 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 11/33 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Under 2.5 (-159) diff 30.5% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.445 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/66 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/33 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 25/33 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 45/66 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.82
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Under 3.5 (-144) diff 29.9% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -144 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.45 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/62 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.45
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/28 under 3.5 (71%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/34 under 3.5 (76%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 46/62 under 3.5 (74%), avg 2.45
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 3.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-118) diff 29.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
  • Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.410 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/37 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-128) diff 29.4% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.184, xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-118) diff 29.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
  • Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.415 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/67 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.46
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.54 | Day Batter HRR: 40/67 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.46
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-155) diff 28.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.479 (12 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/66 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/37 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 37/66 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+101) diff 28.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.491 (80 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/67 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Maikel Garcia Over 1.5 (-109) diff 28.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
  • Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.287 (28 PA, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/62 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.89
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-110) diff 28.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.380 (115 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/69 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-109) diff 27.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.630 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/64 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-103) diff 27.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 31/65 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.91
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 15/36 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+107) diff 27.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.365 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/64 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 33/64 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+111) diff 26.8% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
  • Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.230 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/64 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 30/64 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-118) diff 26.0% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
  • Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/62 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-106) diff 25.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.347 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/68 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (-153) diff 25.7% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.425 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.86
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-103) diff 25.4% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.431, xSLG 0.618 (34 PA, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/63 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.67 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-112) diff 24.4% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.291 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/64 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Under 2.5 (-119) diff 24.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -109 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/65 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.89
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/28 under 2.5 (71%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 25/37 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 45/65 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.89
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-105) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.147 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/66 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-121) diff 23.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.261 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-123) diff 23.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.222 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/69 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+116) diff 23.2% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.296 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/56 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 12/26 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+104) diff 22.3% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
  • Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.292 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/66 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 20/31 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 36/66 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-110) diff 22.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.270 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/67 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 33/67 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-107) diff 22.0% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.201, xSLG 0.188 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/65 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 26/65 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+128) diff 21.9% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.248 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/67 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+117) diff 21.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 31/64 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-123) diff 21.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.305 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/69 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-122) diff 21.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.337 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/69 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/39 over 1.5 (62%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (+106) diff 18.5% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.22
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/63 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter HRR: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter HRR: 44/63 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-114) diff 17.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 32/68 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+130) diff 17.1% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
  • Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.336 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/68 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/36 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Under 2.5 (-164) diff 17.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -159 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
  • Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.313 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/65 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/33 under 2.5 (82%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 21/32 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 48/65 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.89
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Under 1.5 (-172) diff 16.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.78x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.430 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/67 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/32 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 37/67 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.60
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Under 2.5 (-110) diff 16.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.619 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/63 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/31 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 40/63 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (-110) diff 15.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.289 (27 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (-148) diff 15.8% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
  • Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/65 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/33 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 22/32 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 42/65 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Under 2.5 (-171) diff 14.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -164 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.13 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.19x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.545 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 52/70 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/35 under 2.5 (77%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 25/35 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 52/70 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-103) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
  • Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.177, xSLG 0.254 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/69 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.91
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/34 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+110) diff 14.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.383 (21 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/68 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-123) diff 13.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
  • Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.368 (24 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/64 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/36 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Under 1.5 (-176) diff 13.8% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.25
  • Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.350 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/65 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 23/36 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter HRR: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+103) diff 13.6% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.409 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/65 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-116) diff 12.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.345 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/68 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-120) diff 12.4% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.180, xSLG 0.186 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/64 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+113) diff 11.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.338 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 23/60 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/29 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Over 2.5 (+108) diff 11.1% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 2.5 +112 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.78 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
  • Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.387 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/58 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.34
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/28 over 2.5 (46%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 11/30 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 24/58 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.34
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 2.5 (+105) diff 11.0% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/64 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/33 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 11/31 over 2.5 (36%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 25/64 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (+120) diff 10.8% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.39
  • Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.473 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/66 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.39
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter HRR: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 45/66 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.39
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-106) diff 10.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.77x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.351 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/68 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 23/37 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-101) diff 10.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
  • Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.164, xSLG 0.223 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/55 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 15/27 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-178) diff 10.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
  • Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.083, xSLG 0.093 (16 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/65 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.58
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 39/65 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.58
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+129) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-112) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luisangel Acuna Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+120) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Call Over 1.5 (+116) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-146) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+114) diff 9.4% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 2.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.73 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
  • Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.405, xSLG 0.672 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/69 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 2.5 (60%), avg 2.80 | Away Batter HRR: 11/34 over 2.5 (32%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 32/69 over 2.5 (46%), avg 2.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+110) diff 9.0% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.178, xSLG 0.183 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/63 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-182) diff 8.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
  • Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.382 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/67 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/37 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 39/67 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 (+104) diff 8.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.407 (14 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/61 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.57
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-179) diff 8.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
  • Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.365 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 17/31 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.67
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+126) diff 8.5% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.370 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/64 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 13/34 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 24/64 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Baty Under 1.5 (-178) diff 8.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
  • Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.350 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/32 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-108) diff 7.2% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.224 (37 PA, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+114) diff 6.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.189, xSLG 0.212 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/53 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-130) diff 6.5% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.358 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 35/55 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter HRR: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-144) diff 6.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -141 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
  • Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.258 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 16/31 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-138) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.222 (23 PA, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Over 1.5 (-106) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
  • Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/69 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/35 over 1.5 (29%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (-102) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
  • Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/69 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/35 over 1.5 (29%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Valenzuela Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+143) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Frelick Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.230 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Raley Over 1.5 (-140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-103) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-108) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Emerson Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Patrick Wisdom Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jhonny Pereda Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-149) diff 4.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.427, xSLG 0.525 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/68 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 20/35 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 43/68 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-153) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-152) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy (2002) Over 1.5 (-148) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-145) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Braxton Fulford Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chad Stevens Over 1.5 (-103) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+106) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.234 (18 PA, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/65 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/37 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 25/65 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 (-111) diff 3.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 2.5 -109 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.60 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.56
  • Base projection 2.56 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.56
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 2.5 (50%), avg 2.93 | Away Batter HRR: 13/32 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 28/62 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.56
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Callihan Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-109) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-132) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-108) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 3.2% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
  • Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 21/63 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.52
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 21/63 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.52
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+108) diff 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.159, xSLG 0.176 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/68 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 29/68 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Under 2.5 (+111) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.43 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/67 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.43
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 18/36 under 2.5 (50%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 34/67 under 2.5 (51%), avg 2.43
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using blended line 2.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.4% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.304 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/59 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.69
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-111) diff 2.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.486 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (-118) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (-103) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 (+108) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (-116) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Slater Over 1.5 (-102) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (+126) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-146) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 21 PA | 4/18 | HR 0 | K% 4.8% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .522
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/62 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/29 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 37/62 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Loperfido Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-119) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Vazquez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-168) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-154) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-149) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-183) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.421, xSLG 0.440 (11 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/60 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 23/29 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter HRR: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sung-Mun Song Under 1.5 (-177) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Samuel Basallo Under 1.5 (-112) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Freddy Fermin Under 1.5 (-169) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Will Wagner Under 1.5 (-165) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Under 1.5 (-156) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Under 1.5 (-162) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Samad Taylor Under 1.5 (-180) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Under 1.5 (-103) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -103 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Andujar Under 1.5 (-140) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colton Cowser Under 1.5 (-173) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Mateo Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+136) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-132) diff 1.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
  • Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.177 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/64 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.53
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.9% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
  • Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.305 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 22 PA | 4/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.7% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .762
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 22 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/68 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/34 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 18/34 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 36/68 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.46
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-115) diff 0.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.140, xSLG 0.103 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/68 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/35 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.331 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/67 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/36 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-134) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (-113) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Lawlar Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–!!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • INJURY: [OUT] Jordan Lawlar -- Injured 60-Day
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Jordan Lawlar -- Injured 60-Day
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-126) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Troy Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-128) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Edwin Arroyo Over 1.5 (+126) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Manzardo Over 1.5 (+110) diff 0.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (-112) diff 0.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (-105) diff 0.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Schneemann Over 1.5 (+126) diff 0.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-107) diff 0.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcelo Mayer Under 1.5 (-144) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -134 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Gasper Under 1.5 (-127) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Under 1.5 (-111) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 1.5 (-130) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Under 1.5 (-124) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Under 1.5 (+103) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 2.5 (+100) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.50 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.601 (44 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 22/70 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/35 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 9/35 over 2.5 (26%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 22/70 over 2.5 (31%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is below blended line 2.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 2.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Over edge — posture note at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs
▸ Batter Total Bases — 126 play(s) (C 126)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-107) diff 68.9% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.548 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/65 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 68.7% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.28
  • Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (35 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/69 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.28
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter TB: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.28
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -111->-109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-104) diff 62.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.641 (19 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 31/68 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+114) diff 50.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.26
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.26
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.26
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +113->+114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-120) diff 49.5% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/64 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -127->-120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+150) diff 49.5% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/64 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +147->+150)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-137) diff 47.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.601 (44 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/70 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 13/35 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-101) diff 47.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.531 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 22 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.193
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 22 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+112) diff 45.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.08
  • Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.455 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.08
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+112) diff 44.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/33 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+116) diff 43.8% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.775 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/62 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.94
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +111->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-127) diff 41.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 0.97
  • Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/65 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.97
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 49/65 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-133) diff 40.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -129->-133)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+106) diff 34.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.320 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-177) diff 34.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 0.98
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.98
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 25/35 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+131) diff 33.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.18
  • Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/68 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 22/35 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter TB: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +130->+131)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+125) diff 33.7% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.81
  • Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.793 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 26/64 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.81
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +134->+125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+127) diff 33.2% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/65 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +132->+127)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-146) diff 33.1% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (40 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+112) diff 30.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.458 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 22/57 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +114->+112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-102) diff 28.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (46 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/69 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+125) diff 27.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.443 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/69 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +118->+125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+103) diff 26.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.66
  • Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/70 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.66
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/35 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-176) diff 26.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.21
  • Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (23 PA, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 41/63 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 1.21
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.21
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -170->-176)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+125) diff 26.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.67
  • Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.784 (14 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 31 PA | 8/28 | HR 0 | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .712
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 31 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/69 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +120->+125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+113) diff 25.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.59
  • Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.360 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 21/59 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.59
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/32 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.59
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +117->+113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+119) diff 25.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter TB: 13/35 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-127) diff 24.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.17
  • Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/66 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 48/66 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+129) diff 24.1% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.411 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/63 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 7/29 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+124) diff 22.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.458 (80 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 27/61 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 17/36 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +121->+124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+108) diff 22.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.532 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 19 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.3% | BB% 31.6% | OPS .705
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 19 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/51 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 8/26 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +115->+108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+103) diff 21.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.265 (50 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.569
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/69 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 27/69 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +100->+103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 21.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.76
  • Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.385 (112 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.76
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 17/37 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +116->+133)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-114) diff 21.0% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -113 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.28
  • Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/57 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.28
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/29 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 32/57 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.28
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+112) diff 20.8% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.73
  • Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.384 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/67 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 12/35 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 24/67 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +123->+112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-174) diff 20.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.32
  • Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/68 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.32
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 49/68 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.32
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -152->-174)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/65 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+129) diff 20.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.386 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/66 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 24/66 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-187) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -185 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.103 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/68 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/35 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 18/33 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 46/68 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.41
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -180->-187)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-184) diff 19.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.26
  • Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.234 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/65 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.26
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/37 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 47/65 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+114) diff 18.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.58
  • Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.818 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .851
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/66 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.58
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/31 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +121->+114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 (-169) diff 18.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.486 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 43/63 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+135) diff 17.4% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.618 (34 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/63 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 8/29 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 23/63 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+102) diff 16.8% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.91
  • Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.437 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/65 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.91
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 32/65 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +105->+102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+136) diff 15.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.254 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/68 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/36 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +124->+136)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+113) diff 15.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/65 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 26/65 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +117->+113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-185) diff 15.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.32
  • Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.222 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/69 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.32
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/38 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 16/31 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 45/69 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.32
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -178->-185)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.6% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.58
  • Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/62 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.58
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +129->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+124) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.56
  • Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.545 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/66 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 11/33 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 25/66 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +129->+124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+121) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.74
  • Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.268 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/70 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.74
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/38 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +126->+121)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-134) diff 13.9% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.71
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/65 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 14/37 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-208) diff 13.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.38
  • Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/68 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.38
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 23/34 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -193->-208)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-192) diff 13.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.20
  • Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/69 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/35 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/34 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 49/69 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.20
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -198->-192)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+149) diff 13.3% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.214 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/66 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/33 over 1.5 (18%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 22/66 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +130->+149)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Under 1.5 (-177) diff 13.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.77x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/68 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 21/37 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 41/68 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.69
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-180) diff 13.0% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.29
  • Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.29
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.29
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -174->-180)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.01; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.01; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-149) diff 12.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.28
  • Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.368 (24 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/64 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.28
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/36 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 42/64 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -161->-149)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.1% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/65 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+111) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.169 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/64 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +115->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+134) diff 11.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.380 (115 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/69 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +126->+134)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+111) diff 11.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.687 (41 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/69 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 17/37 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+109) diff 11.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+149) diff 11.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+108) diff 10.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/68 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/38 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 36/68 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-179) diff 10.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.49
  • Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/69 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/34 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 21/35 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 47/69 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.49
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -185->-179)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-155) diff 10.0% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.52
  • Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/62 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 39/62 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.52
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-179) diff 9.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.45
  • Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.186 (35 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/64 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 39/64 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -184->-179)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+142) diff 8.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.61
  • Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/66 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/29 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 16/37 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 25/66 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+117) diff 8.7% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 20/54 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 7/26 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.69
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 8.5% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 30 PA | 8/29 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 3.3% | OPS .817
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 30 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/70 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 13/36 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +122->+123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-159) diff 8.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.31
  • Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.519 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/67 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.31
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/34 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -160->-159)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-186) diff 8.2% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.40
  • Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.40
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 36/63 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.1% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 20/63 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 8/30 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 20/63 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.41
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +121->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-179) diff 7.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.410 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/66 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/37 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 42/66 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +138->+134)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luke Raley Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.45
  • Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 22/65 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.45
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/33 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 22/65 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-112) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Braxton Fulford Over 1.5 (+134) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 1.5 (+115) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (24 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/64 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +139->+144)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-104) diff 5.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.30
  • Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.545 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 20/70 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/35 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 11/35 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 20/70 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.30
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/68 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +125->+123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-123) diff 4.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 16 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | OPS .327
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 43/69 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/36 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 43/69 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/67 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/34 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 9/33 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 22/67 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +147->+138)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-129) diff 4.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -127 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (12 PA, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/66 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/37 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 43/66 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -134->-129)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-130) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.50
  • Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/66 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 44/66 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.50
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.7% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 8/29 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+144) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +140->+144)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.25 (4 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.25 (4 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-178) diff 3.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.337 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/69 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/39 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 39/69 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.261 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +119->+131)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +100->+104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+138) diff 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +134->+138)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +124->+110)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +105->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.56
  • Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 20/61 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 11/34 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.56
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +103->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-198) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.50
  • Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.630 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/64 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.50
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -201->-198)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.17; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.17; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +121->+117)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +138->+143)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +107->+114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+145) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +143->+145)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+155) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +155 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +122->+130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Maikel Garcia Under 1.5 (-201) diff 1.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (28 PA, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/32 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -193->-201)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-157) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/69 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/35 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 43/69 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Under 1.5 (-180) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 37/64 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.47
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -178->-180)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.78x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.415 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/67 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 29/67 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+150) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +118->+127)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +103->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+142) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.73
  • Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.147 (31 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/66 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.73
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 27/66 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +140->+142)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/68 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.60
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +137->+130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books)
⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using blended line 1.3 (5 books) — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Under 1.5 (-187) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.270 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/67 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/35 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 41/67 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.19; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.19; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Under 1.5 (-178) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (5 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (5 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Under 1.5 (-159) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -161->-159)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.20; blended market flips the selected Under edge
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.3 (5 books): market gap +0.20; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D
▸ Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Under 13.5 13.5 (-105) edge 42.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 14 -115 | alt rescue
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • [INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 13.5
  • Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
  • Gage Jump small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -107->-105)
⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 43% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement
▸ F5 Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 7.5 7.5 (-114) edge 36.5% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (F5)  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 8 -120 | alt rescue
Checks: –✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • [INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 7.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
  • Gage Jump xFIP 4.29
  • Away SP TBD
  • Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
  • F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
  • Line movement: against this side (line 8->7.5, odds -120->-114)
⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees
⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 37% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 12.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact
Checks: –✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (24)
  • [OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Juan Nuñez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Jean Henriquez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Dean Kremer (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Camden Yards (PITCHER)
  • Shane Baz xFIP 4.35
  • Griffin Canning xFIP 4.13
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 100)
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 50% (team 92)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 0.98
  • F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Shane Baz (RHP)
  • Away SP: Griffin Canning (RHP)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-144) edge 8.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (F5)  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exact
Checks: –✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • [INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Ender Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Tyson Guerrero (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
  • Luinder Avila xFIP 4.35
  • Tatsuya Imai xFIP 4.35
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 101)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)
  • Away SP: Tatsuya Imai (RHP)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -146->-144)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 12.3% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.21, K% 26.7%, BB% 5.3%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.228, K% 34.7%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 34.8%
  • Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.23, K% 17.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 20.7% | 1st inn full (56 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 25.0%, BB% 1.8%, whiff% 20.2%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.51
  • Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Braxton Ashcraft: 92% (13 starts) | Sandy Alcantara: 79% (14 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.330 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +12.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -3.3%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 6.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.49, K% 24.6%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.0% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.223, K% 34.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 26.9%
  • Javier Assad: xFIP 4.31, K% 18.3%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 15.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (10 PA): xwOBA 0.341, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.6%
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 101)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.17, SO/G 0.48 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.16
  • Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
  • NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 85% (13 starts)
  • All-game streak: 38-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 20-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +6.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +2.1%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -128->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.4 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 17.2%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.373, whiff% 16.6% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.299, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 18.2%
  • Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.78, K% 26.4%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.214, whiff% 29.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.118, K% 30.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.1%
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Zack Littell: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +4.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +4.0%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -102->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge 3.4% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Joe Ryan: xFIP 3.63, K% 28.3%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.313, K% 29.8%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.8%
  • Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.30, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.390, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 26.5%, BB% 10.2%, whiff% 25.0%
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.84
  • Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Joe Ryan: 71% (14 starts) | Kyle Leahy: 83% (12 starts)
  • All-game streak: 37-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.251 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +3.4%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +5.5%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.58, K% 24.6%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.290, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 30.2%, BB% 9.4%, whiff% 17.6%
  • Spencer Strider: xFIP 4.18, K% 26.0%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 32.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 30.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 19.3%
  • New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 93)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 69% (13 starts) | Spencer Strider: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.308 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +1.9%
  • YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -110 | implied 52.4% | model edge +6.2%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+150) edge -1.0% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +150
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Gage Jump: xFIP 4.29, K% 20.2%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.294, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (11 PA): xwOBA 0.181, K% 27.3%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 27.3%
  • Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 102)
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.91
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +150 | implied 40.0% | model edge -1.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -194 | implied 66.0% | model edge +2.0%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +170->+150)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-118) edge -4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.99, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (46 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 19.6%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 21.7%
  • Jack Leiter: xFIP 4.08, K% 23.5%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.356, K% 24.6%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 25.5%
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 96)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.80
  • Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
  • NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 55% (11 starts) | Jack Leiter: 69% (13 starts)
  • All-game streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -4.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +13.2%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -120->-118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+110) edge -5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.0%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.372, whiff% 21.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.360, K% 19.6%, BB% 3.9%, whiff% 18.3%
  • Roki Sasaki: xFIP 3.97, K% 26.0%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (45 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 25.3%
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 102)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 108)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.15 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 0.88
  • Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 55% (11 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 91% (11 starts)
  • All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.259 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge -5.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +14.6%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -106->+110)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -5.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Sam Aldegheri: xFIP 4.42, K% 19.5%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (7 PA): xwOBA 0.460, K% 0.0%, BB% 28.6%, whiff% 29.4%
  • Shane McClanahan: xFIP 3.89, K% 23.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.301, whiff% 26.9% | 1st inn full (44 PA): xwOBA 0.211, K% 34.1%, BB% 6.8%, whiff% 30.8%
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 98)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.62, SO/G 1.27 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
  • Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 92% (12 starts)
  • All-game streak: 36-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.232 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -5.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +14.6%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -6.8% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.26, K% 37.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.238, whiff% 38.4% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.220, K% 48.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 35.8%
  • Andrew Painter: xFIP 4.55, K% 18.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.415, K% 14.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 18.9%
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 101)
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 96)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.07
  • Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 85% (13 starts) | Andrew Painter: 82% (11 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -6.8%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +15.8%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -130->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -14.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 17.2%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 20.9%
  • Jack Flaherty: xFIP 4.37, K% 26.9%, BB% 10.6%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 27.0% | 1st inn full (60 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 31.7%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 22.4%
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 96)
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.54 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.86
  • Park: Progressive Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Tanner Bibee: 64% (14 starts) | Jack Flaherty: 79% (14 starts)
  • All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.359 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -14.6%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +23.6%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -125->-120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+116) edge -16.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +116
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.35, K% 21.0%, BB% 10.7%, xwOBA 0.325, whiff% 23.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (15 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 6.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 15.6%
  • Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.35, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 21.2%, BB% 27.3%, whiff% 27.1%
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
  • Park: Kauffman Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.98)
  • NRFI rate: Tatsuya Imai: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch) | Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -16.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +25.3%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +102->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge -16.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.34, K% 27.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 27.9% | 1st inn full (55 PA): xwOBA 0.423, K% 23.6%, BB% 9.1%, whiff% 26.6%
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 128 (team avg 105)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.51 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.93
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 67% (12 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -16.7%
  • YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -105 | implied 51.2% | model edge +16.9%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -115->-125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge -16.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Shane Baz: xFIP 4.35, K% 20.4%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 20.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.418, K% 17.2%, BB% 13.8%, whiff% 15.1%
  • Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.13, K% 22.4%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.366, K% 21.9%, BB% 21.9%, whiff% 22.6%
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 92)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.83
  • Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Shane Baz: 62% (13 starts) | Griffin Canning: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -16.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +25.7%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +104->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+104) edge -19.0% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Nick Lodolo: xFIP 4.51, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.391, whiff% 22.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.318, K% 28.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 21.4%
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.24, K% 18.5%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 19.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.417, K% 20.7%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 16.7%
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.80
  • Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
  • NRFI rate: Nick Lodolo: 67% (6 starts) | Eduardo Rodriguez: 54% (13 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.272 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -19.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +28.1%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +100->+104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D
▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-132) edge 28.1% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Nick Lodolo: xFIP 4.51, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.391, whiff% 22.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.318, K% 28.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 21.4%
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.24, K% 18.5%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 19.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.417, K% 20.7%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 16.7%
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.80
  • Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
  • NRFI rate: Nick Lodolo: 67% (6 starts) | Eduardo Rodriguez: 54% (13 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.272 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -19.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +28.1%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -128->-132)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 28% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge 25.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Shane Baz: xFIP 4.35, K% 20.4%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 20.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.418, K% 17.2%, BB% 13.8%, whiff% 15.1%
  • Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.13, K% 22.4%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.366, K% 21.9%, BB% 21.9%, whiff% 22.6%
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 92)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.83
  • Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Shane Baz: 62% (13 starts) | Griffin Canning: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -16.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +25.7%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -132->-128)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 26% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-148) edge 25.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -148
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.35, K% 21.0%, BB% 10.7%, xwOBA 0.325, whiff% 23.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (15 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 6.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 15.6%
  • Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.35, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 21.2%, BB% 27.3%, whiff% 27.1%
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
  • Park: Kauffman Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.98)
  • NRFI rate: Tatsuya Imai: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch) | Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -16.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +25.3%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -130->-148)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 23.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 17.2%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 20.9%
  • Jack Flaherty: xFIP 4.37, K% 26.9%, BB% 10.6%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 27.0% | 1st inn full (60 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 31.7%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 22.4%
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 96)
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.54 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.86
  • Park: Progressive Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Tanner Bibee: 64% (14 starts) | Jack Flaherty: 79% (14 starts)
  • All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.359 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -14.6%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +23.6%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -102->-106)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-105) edge 16.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -105
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.34, K% 27.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 27.9% | 1st inn full (55 PA): xwOBA 0.423, K% 23.6%, BB% 9.1%, whiff% 26.6%
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 128 (team avg 105)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.51 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.93
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 67% (12 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -16.7%
  • YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -105 | implied 51.2% | model edge +16.9%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -115->-105)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 15.8% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.26, K% 37.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.238, whiff% 38.4% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.220, K% 48.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 35.8%
  • Andrew Painter: xFIP 4.55, K% 18.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.415, K% 14.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 18.9%
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 101)
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 96)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.07
  • Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 85% (13 starts) | Andrew Painter: 82% (11 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -6.8%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +15.8%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +100->-104)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-140) edge 14.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.0%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.372, whiff% 21.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.360, K% 19.6%, BB% 3.9%, whiff% 18.3%
  • Roki Sasaki: xFIP 3.97, K% 26.0%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (45 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 25.3%
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 102)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 108)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.15 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 0.88
  • Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 55% (11 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 91% (11 starts)
  • All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.259 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge -5.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +14.6%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -120->-140)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 14.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Sam Aldegheri: xFIP 4.42, K% 19.5%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (7 PA): xwOBA 0.460, K% 0.0%, BB% 28.6%, whiff% 29.4%
  • Shane McClanahan: xFIP 3.89, K% 23.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.301, whiff% 26.9% | 1st inn full (44 PA): xwOBA 0.211, K% 34.1%, BB% 6.8%, whiff% 30.8%
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 98)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.62, SO/G 1.27 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
  • Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 92% (12 starts)
  • All-game streak: 36-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.232 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -5.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +14.6%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 13.2% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.99, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (46 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 19.6%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 21.7%
  • Jack Leiter: xFIP 4.08, K% 23.5%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.356, K% 24.6%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 25.5%
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 96)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.80
  • Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
  • NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 55% (11 starts) | Jack Leiter: 69% (13 starts)
  • All-game streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -4.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +13.2%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -106->-108)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-110) edge 6.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.58, K% 24.6%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.290, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 30.2%, BB% 9.4%, whiff% 17.6%
  • Spencer Strider: xFIP 4.18, K% 26.0%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 32.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 30.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 19.3%
  • New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 93)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 69% (13 starts) | Spencer Strider: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.308 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +1.9%
  • YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -110 | implied 52.4% | model edge +6.2%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Joe Ryan: xFIP 3.63, K% 28.3%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.313, K% 29.8%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.8%
  • Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.30, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.390, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 26.5%, BB% 10.2%, whiff% 25.0%
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.84
  • Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Joe Ryan: 71% (14 starts) | Kyle Leahy: 83% (12 starts)
  • All-game streak: 37-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.251 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +3.4%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +5.5%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -130->-115)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 17.2%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.373, whiff% 16.6% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.299, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 18.2%
  • Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.78, K% 26.4%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.214, whiff% 29.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.118, K% 30.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.1%
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Zack Littell: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +4.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +4.0%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -125->-128)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.49, K% 24.6%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.0% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.223, K% 34.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 26.9%
  • Javier Assad: xFIP 4.31, K% 18.3%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 15.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (10 PA): xwOBA 0.341, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.6%
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 101)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.17, SO/G 0.48 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.16
  • Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
  • NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 85% (13 starts)
  • All-game streak: 38-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 20-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +6.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +2.1%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +100->-104)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-194) edge 2.0% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -194
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Gage Jump: xFIP 4.29, K% 20.2%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.294, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (11 PA): xwOBA 0.181, K% 27.3%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 27.3%
  • Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 102)
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.91
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +150 | implied 40.0% | model edge -1.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -194 | implied 66.0% | model edge +2.0%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -210->-194)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge -3.3% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.21, K% 26.7%, BB% 5.3%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.228, K% 34.7%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 34.8%
  • Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.23, K% 17.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 20.7% | 1st inn full (56 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 25.0%, BB% 1.8%, whiff% 20.2%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.51
  • Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Braxton Ashcraft: 92% (13 starts) | Sandy Alcantara: 79% (14 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.330 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +12.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -3.3%
▸ Batter HR — 261 play(s) (C 261)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 96.7% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0161
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 21 PA | 4/18 | HR 0 | K% 4.8% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .522
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 61/62 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 33/33 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 61/62 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 96.4% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0156
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.230 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 63/64 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/35 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 63/64 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 95.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.74x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.165 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 64/64 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 34/34 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 64/64 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (23 PA, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 63/63 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/33 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 63/63 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0339
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/59 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0317
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/63 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/33 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 61/63 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0303
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.385 (112 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 64/66 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 35/37 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 64/66 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Samad Taylor Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Andujar Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Will Wagner Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0317
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 61/63 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/28 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 61/63 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcelo Mayer Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mickey Gasper Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Higashioka Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Vierling Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–!!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • INJURY: [OUT] Jordan Lawlar -- Injured 60-Day
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Jordan Lawlar -- Injured 60-Day
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tommy Troy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jorge Mateo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Wynns Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — MJ Melendez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Meyers Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tristan Gray Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0303
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (12 PA, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 64/66 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/37 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 64/66 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Madrigal Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Braxton Fulford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brent Rooker Under 0.5 (-300) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chad Stevens Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Moisés Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-475) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Patrick Wisdom Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jhonny Pereda Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.C. Escarra Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 55/55 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0317
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.183 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 61/63 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/33 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 61/63 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.0% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0448
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 64/67 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/37 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-900) diff 91.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0462
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Gage Jump: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 62/65 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 62/65 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 91.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0435
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.222 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 66/69 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/38 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan Ward Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 91.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0435
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.222 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 66/69 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/38 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0469
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 61/64 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 61/64 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 90.6% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0448
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.519 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 64/67 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/34 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 90.4% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0476
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.230 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 60/63 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 60/63 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-800) diff 90.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0526
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/57 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Maikel Garcia Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 90.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0484
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (28 PA, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/62 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 90.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0500
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.258 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/60 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 58/60 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0492
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.458 (80 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/61 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.6% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0462
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.188 (11 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 62/65 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/33 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 62/65 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.2% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0500
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.440 (11 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 57/60 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 89.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0588
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 64/68 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 64/68 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 89.0% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0536
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.296 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/56 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.5% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0735
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 63/68 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.7% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0606
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.545 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 62/66 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 62/66 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0755
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.212 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 49/53 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0667
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/60 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-700) diff 85.3% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0758
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 62/66 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 62/66 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0781
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.177 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/64 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.0% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0746
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.248 (10 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 62/67 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0882
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.103 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 63/68 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/35 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 84.7% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0870
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.337 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 63/69 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0769
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.405 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 60/65 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.3% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0968
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0882
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 63/68 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.0% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1045
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.331 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 60/67 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0714
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.545 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 65/70 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 32/35 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 65/70 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-900) diff 82.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0769
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.395 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/65 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Chapman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0882
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.278 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 64/68 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 64/68 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.4% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1045
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.84x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.534 (14 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 60/67 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1176
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.77x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.351 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 61/68 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 34/37 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1029
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.383 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 61/68 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0909
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (27 PA, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/66 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 81.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1077
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.093 (16 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/65 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 58/65 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 81.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.630 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 81.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1194
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 59/67 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.1% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1061
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.292 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 59/66 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0923
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.350 (11 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/65 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.261 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-750) diff 80.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.368 (24 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.7% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1014
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 16 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | OPS .327
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 62/69 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1077
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 59/65 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-750) diff 80.3% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1129
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.105 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/62 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-900) diff 80.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1029
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.254 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/68 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.486 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 79.5% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1250
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.365 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/64 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 57/64 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-900) diff 78.9% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0968
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.8% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.486 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1176
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.176 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 61/68 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1176
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/68 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1014
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 62/69 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1014
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 62/69 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.0% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1094
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 63/70 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 32/35 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1077
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/65 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 58/65 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.7% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1212
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/66 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 58/66 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1077
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 59/65 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1061
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.818 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .851
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 60/66 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1231
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/65 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 58/65 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.4% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1045
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/67 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.2% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.224 (37 PA, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/63 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.1% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1452
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/62 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1449
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 60/69 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.9% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1250
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.9% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/63 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.7% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1406
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.186 (35 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/64 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.6% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1159
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.784 (14 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 31 PA | 8/28 | HR 0 | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .712
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 31 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/69 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1304
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.380 (115 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 60/69 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1471
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/68 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 58/68 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-900) diff 72.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1364
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 59/66 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.0% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1186
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.360 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1406
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/64 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 55/64 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 71.6% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1304
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (46 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 60/69 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/35 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1594
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/69 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 59/69 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.1% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/63 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.1% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.0% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/63 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.5% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1471
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.305 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 22 PA | 4/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.7% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .762
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 22 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 58/68 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 58/68 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.4% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 30 PA | 8/29 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 3.3% | OPS .817
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 30 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/70 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 61/70 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.3% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.618 (34 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.9% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1692
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.437 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/65 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 68.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1818
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.223 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/55 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.6% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/61 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1692
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.234 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/65 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/37 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2090
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.78x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.415 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/67 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 27/35 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 67.2% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1818
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.410 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/66 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/37 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-750) diff 66.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1538
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/65 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 56/65 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1719
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (24 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/64 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1515
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.320 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/66 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.2% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1587
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.411 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/63 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-390) diff 66.2% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1692
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 56/65 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 56/65 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.1% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1667
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/66 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 28/37 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 56/66 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1642
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.491 (80 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/67 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 30/38 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 57/67 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (14 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/61 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1970
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.147 (31 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/66 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 29/35 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 54/66 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.3% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1515
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.214 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/66 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 64.2% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1852
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/54 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.1% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2206
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/68 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2031
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.169 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 53/64 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1940
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.270 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/67 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.1% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1579
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.458 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/57 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 61.5% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1719
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.667 (20 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/64 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 60.7% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1818
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/55 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1935
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/62 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/30 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1884
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.265 (50 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.569
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/69 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/38 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 57/69 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.4% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1940
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.384 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/67 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2206
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/68 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 26/35 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-450) diff 58.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels  |  Start: 9:39 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2154
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/65 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2143
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.268 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/70 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/38 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.5% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1692
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.548 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 55/65 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-400) diff 57.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1940
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/30 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 27/33 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 57.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2308
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/65 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/33 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 50/65 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2609
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.214 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.687 (41 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/69 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/32 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 29/37 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 56.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1719
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/64 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-400) diff 56.7% Bet on DK
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1719
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/64 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 56.1% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2069
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.395 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/58 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-240) diff 55.2% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -240 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2239
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/67 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-750) diff 55.0% Bet on DK
Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2031
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.793 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/64 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 53.9% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1857
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.601 (44 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/70 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals  |  Start: 6:46 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1857
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.601 (44 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/70 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 52.5% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2615
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/65 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 20/30 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 48/65 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 51.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2319
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.443 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/69 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 51.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2424
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.386 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/66 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 52/66 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-500) diff 49.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2500
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.365 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/64 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 48/64 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-700) diff 49.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2222
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/63 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-475) diff 49.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2745
  • Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.532 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 19 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.3% | BB% 31.6% | OPS .705
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 19 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 38/51 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/25 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 48.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2794
  • Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/68 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 22/35 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter HR: 50/68 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-900) diff 48.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants  |  Start: 10:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2459
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.455 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/61 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/24 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 31/37 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 46.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2206
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.641 (19 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/68 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 29/35 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-250) diff 45.2% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2742
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-550) diff 43.9% Bet on DK
Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2540
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.531 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 22 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.193
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 22 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/35 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 42.5% Bet on DK
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2581
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.775 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 41.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:37 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2903
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/62 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/27 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 27/35 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-275) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics  |  Start: 10:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2857
  • Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (40 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 23/32 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 47/63 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-475) diff 38.9% Bet on DK
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers  |  Start: 7:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3692
  • Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.238 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.435 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 88, HR vulnerability 12 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/65 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/33 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter HR: 23/32 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 44/65 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 29.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets  |  Start: 7:15 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3188
  • Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (35 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/69 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/35 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 25/34 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 29.1% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3188
  • Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (35 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/69 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/35 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 25/34 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-390) diff 18.4% Bet on DK
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price
Checks: –✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3448
  • Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/58 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/28 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter HR: 21/30 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.410/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.410/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CColorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PMTotalUnder 13.5-10548.9%91.5%+42.6%$+78.6410Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (1 play(s))
C Under 13.5 — Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (Total)   +42.6%
  • [INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 13.5
  • Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
  • Gage Jump small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -107->-105)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CColorado Rockies @ Athletics (F5)10:06 PMF5 TotalUnder 7.5-11450.0%86.5%+36.5%$+62.412Bet on DK
CSan Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)7:06 PMF5 TotalUnder 5.5-14054.8%67.0%+12.2%$+14.872Bet on DK
CHouston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (F5)8:11 PMF5 TotalUnder 5.5-14455.3%63.9%+8.6%$+8.312Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (3 play(s))
C Under 7.5 — Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total)   +36.5%
  • [INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 7.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
  • Gage Jump xFIP 4.29
  • Away SP TBD
  • Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
  • F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
  • Line movement: against this side (line 8->7.5, odds -120->-114)
C Under 5.5 — San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) (F5 Total)   +12.2%
  • [OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Juan Nuñez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Jean Henriquez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Dean Kremer (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Camden Yards (PITCHER)
  • Shane Baz xFIP 4.35
  • Griffin Canning xFIP 4.13
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 100)
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 50% (team 92)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 0.98
  • F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Shane Baz (RHP)
  • Away SP: Griffin Canning (RHP)
C Under 5.5 — Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 Total)   +8.6%
  • [INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Ender Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Tyson Guerrero (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
  • Luinder Avila xFIP 4.35
  • Tatsuya Imai xFIP 4.35
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 101)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)
  • Away SP: Tatsuya Imai (RHP)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -146->-144)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)
GameTime (ET)SPsNRFI / MinYRFI / MinEdgeWhy not
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PMBraxton Ashcraft / Sandy Alcantara5.8 / 7.74.2 / 7.7+12.3%Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PMLanden Roupp / Javier Assad5.4 / 7.74.6 / 7.7+6.9%Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 6.9% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (10 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets7:15 PMNolan McLean / Spencer Strider4.9 / 7.75.1 / 7.7+1.9%Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.9% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PMJoe Ryan / Kyle Leahy4.9 / 7.75.1 / 7.7+3.4%Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 3.4% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals6:46 PMZack Littell / Bryce Miller4.8 / 7.75.2 / 7.7+4.9%Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 4.9% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (13 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox7:11 PMSonny Gray / Jack Leiter4.3 / 7.75.7 / 7.7-4.2%Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.2% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers7:41 PMJacob Misiorowski / Andrew Painter4.2 / 7.75.8 / 7.7-6.8%Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.8% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels9:39 PMSam Aldegheri / Shane McClanahan4.1 / 7.75.9 / 7.7-5.7%Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.7% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (7 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PMAnthony Kay / Roki Sasaki3.7 / 7.76.3 / 7.7-5.5%Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.5% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PMTanner Bibee / Jack Flaherty3.5 / 7.76.5 / 7.7-14.6%Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -14.6% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PMGage Jump / TBD ⚠ Away SP3.4 / 7.75.9 / 7.7-1.0%Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -1.0% < 8% required
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data partial (11 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays7:37 PMTBD / Ryan Weathers ⚠ Home SP3.4 / 7.75.9 / 7.7-16.7%Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -16.7% < 8% required
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles7:06 PMShane Baz / Griffin Canning2.9 / 7.77.1 / 7.7-16.9%Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.9% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals8:11 PMLuinder Avila / Tatsuya Imai2.5 / 7.77.5 / 7.7-16.3%Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.3% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (15 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PMNick Lodolo / Eduardo Rodriguez2.4 / 7.77.6 / 7.7-19.0%Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -19.0% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (25 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context
  • HR props parsed: 261 batter line(s)
  • Market discovery: batter_home_runs=261
  • Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
  • Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
  • Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
  • HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

TierPlayerTeamGameTime (ET)SpotPitcherBookOddsFirst HRHR ChanceMarket ImpliedEdgeChance ScoreFreshness
Best HR ChanceCorbin CarrollArizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PM-Nick Lodolo (L)theScore Bet+400-39.5%18.8%+20.7%99-
Best HR ChanceAndy PagesLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PM-Anthony Kay (L)theScore Bet+450-38.4%17.1%+21.3%99-
Best HR ChanceByron BuxtonMinnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PM-Kyle Leahy (R)theScore Bet+250-37.9%26.4%+11.5%99-
Best HR ChanceDillon DinglerDetroit TigersDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PM-Tanner Bibee (R)theScore Bet+500-37.0%15.6%+21.3%99-
Best HR ChanceKetel MarteArizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PM-Nick Lodolo (L)theScore Bet+260-36.9%25.8%+11.2%99-
Best HR ChanceNoelvi MarteArizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PM-Nick Lodolo (L)theScore Bet+600-36.9%13.3%+23.6%99-
Best HR ChanceYordan AlvarezHouston AstrosHouston Astros @ Kansas City Royals8:11 PM-Luinder Avila (R)theScore Bet+300-36.7%23.2%+13.5%99-
Best HR ChanceJake BauersMilwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers7:41 PM-Andrew Painter (R)theScore Bet+400-36.1%18.8%+17.3%99-
Best HR ChanceBrandon LowePittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM-Sandy Alcantara (R)theScore Bet+350-34.8%20.8%+14.0%99-
Best HR ChanceHunter GoodmanColorado RockiesColorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PM-Gage Jump (L)theScore Bet+190-34.4%32.0%+2.4%99-
Best HR ChanceShohei OhtaniLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PM-Anthony Kay (L)theScore Bet+260-34.3%25.8%+8.5%99-
Best HR ChanceAngel MartinezCleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PM-Jack Flaherty (R)theScore Bet+550-33.8%14.3%+19.5%99-
Best HR ChanceWillson ContrerasBoston Red SoxTexas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox7:11 PM-Jack Leiter (R)theScore Bet+450-33.7%17.1%+16.6%99-
Best HR ChanceBrice TurangMilwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers7:41 PM-Andrew Painter (R)theScore Bet+550-33.6%14.3%+19.3%99-
HR Chance WatchlistJuan SotoNew York MetsAtlanta Braves @ New York Mets7:15 PM-Spencer Strider (R)theScore Bet+300-33.1%23.2%+9.8%99-
Best HR ChanceRiley GreeneDetroit TigersDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PM-Tanner Bibee (R)theScore Bet+425-32.6%17.9%+14.8%99-
Best HR ChancePete AlonsoBaltimore OriolesSan Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles7:06 PM-Griffin Canning (R)theScore Bet+350-32.6%20.8%+11.8%99-
Best HR ChanceYandy DiazTampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels9:39 PM-Sam Aldegheri (L)theScore Bet+400-32.4%18.8%+13.6%99-
Best HR ChanceCasey SchmittSan Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PM-Javier Assad (R)theScore Bet+500-32.3%15.6%+16.7%99-
Best HR ChanceMiguel VargasChicago White SoxLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PM-Roki Sasaki (R)theScore Bet+425-32.0%17.9%+14.1%99-

Game HR Environments

TierGameTime (ET)ScoreP(1+ HR)Fair OddsTop ThreatsEnvironmentRisks
Strong HR EnvironmentArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PM10089.3%-838Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Noelvi Marte, Spencer SteerGreat American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7%-
Strong HR EnvironmentLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PM10088.0%-733Andy Pages, Shohei Ohtani, Miguel Vargas, Colson MontgomeryGuaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.0%-
Strong HR EnvironmentDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PM10087.0%-668Dillon Dingler, Angel Martinez, Riley Greene, Spencer TorkelsonProgressive Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%-
Strong HR EnvironmentSeattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals6:46 PM10087.0%-666Julio Rodriguez, James Wood, CJ Abrams, Dominic CanzoneNationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%-
Strong HR EnvironmentSan Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles7:06 PM10086.8%-654Pete Alonso, Gavin Sheets, Gunnar Henderson, Samuel BasalloCamden Yards HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3%-
Strong HR EnvironmentNew York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays7:37 PM10086.2%-624Ben Rice, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Bellinger, Paul GoldschmidtRogers Centre HR factor 0.96 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%-
WatchlistTexas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox7:11 PM10085.9%-611Willson Contreras, Jake Burger, Jarren Duran, Wilyer AbreuFenway Park HR factor 0.95-
WatchlistSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PM10085.0%-568Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Jordan Walker, Alec BurlesonTarget Field HR factor 0.95-
WatchlistHouston Astros @ Kansas City Royals8:11 PM10085.0%-567Yordan Alvarez, Jac Caglianone, Christian Walker, Carter JensenKauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93-
WatchlistPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers7:41 PM10084.8%-557Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Justin Crawford, Kyle SchwarberAmerican Family Field HR factor 1.08-
WatchlistAtlanta Braves @ New York Mets7:15 PM10084.7%-555Juan Soto, Eddy Alvarez, Matt Olson, Jared YoungCiti Field HR factor 0.93-
WatchlistMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM10083.6%-509Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Spencer Horwitz, Endy RodriguezPNC Park HR factor 0.96-
WatchlistChicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PM10083.1%-492Casey Schmitt, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, Ian HappOracle Park HR factor 0.82-
WatchlistTampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels9:39 PM10082.9%-484Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Zach Neto, Jonathan ArandaAngel Stadium HR factor 0.98-
WatchlistColorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PM10082.5%-470Hunter Goodman, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler SoderstromUnknown Venue HR factor 1.00-
▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)
Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds (+400) HR chance 39.5% | edge +20.7%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.169, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.268, TB/G 2.02
  • Statcast: barrel 13.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/111.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 10/65 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0578, xFIP 4.97, K% 17.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.391, xERA 6.64, whiff 22.2%
  • Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.107, OPS 0.863 (28 PA)
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.023, OPS 1.152, ISO 0.282 (87 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
Best HR Chance Andy Pages — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox (+450) HR chance 38.4% | edge +21.3%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.221, OPS 0.847, ISO 0.237, TB/G 2.00
  • Statcast: barrel 10.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/109.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.487
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 13/68 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0381, xFIP 5.00, K% 16.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.372, xERA 5.88, whiff 21.2%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.845, ISO 0.258 (67 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.641, xwOBA 0.445 (19 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)
Best HR Chance Byron Buxton — St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins (+250) HR chance 37.9% | edge +11.5%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.345, OPS 0.877, ISO 0.303, TB/G 2.29
  • Statcast: barrel 18.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/111.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.495
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 18/58 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0315, xFIP 4.34, K% 17.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.390, xERA 6.59, whiff 21.7%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.095, OPS 0.928, ISO 0.366 (189 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.387, xwOBA 0.303 (36 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)
Best HR Chance Dillon Dingler — Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (+500) HR chance 37.0% | edge +21.3%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.258, OPS 0.858, ISO 0.272, TB/G 1.94
  • Statcast: barrel 13.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.570
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 14/62 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0393, xFIP 4.20, K% 19.9%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.55, whiff 26.2%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.552, K% 26.7% (15 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.924, ISO 0.285 (177 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
Best HR Chance Ketel Marte — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds (+260) HR chance 36.9% | edge +11.2%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.172, OPS 0.741, ISO 0.194, TB/G 1.78
  • Statcast: barrel 10.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.7/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.504
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/64 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0578, xFIP 4.97, K% 17.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.391, xERA 6.64, whiff 22.2%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.250 (77 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.553, xwOBA 0.429 (23 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance Noelvi Marte — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds (+600) HR chance 36.9% | edge +23.6%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.172, OPS 0.741, ISO 0.194, TB/G 1.78
  • Statcast: barrel 10.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.7/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.504
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/64 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0578, xFIP 4.97, K% 17.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.391, xERA 6.64, whiff 22.2%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.250 (77 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.553, xwOBA 0.429 (23 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (+300) HR chance 36.7% | edge +13.5%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.319, OPS 1.066, ISO 0.320, TB/G 2.28
  • Statcast: barrel 18.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.9/117.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.729
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 20/69 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0150, xFIP 4.58, K% 20.9%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.325, xERA 4.31, whiff 23.9%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.065, OPS 1.068, ISO 0.305 (217 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.672, xwOBA 0.405 (35 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+400) HR chance 36.1% | edge +17.3%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.207, OPS 0.891, ISO 0.238, TB/G 1.79
  • Statcast: barrel 13.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/112.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/58 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0441, xFIP 4.68, K% 18.0%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.342, xERA 4.83, whiff 22.3%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.933, ISO 0.258 (177 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.395, xwOBA 0.315 (35 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

PlayerGameTime (ET)OddsHR ChanceWhy lower
Steven KwanDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PM+12000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Masyn WinnSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PM+10000.6%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Luke KeaschallSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PM+10000.6%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Jakob MarseeMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM+10000.7%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Luis ArraezChicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PM+12000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Austin MartinSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PM+12000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Kyle KarrosColorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PM+5000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin BvP sample (1 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Nico HoernerChicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PM+14000.9%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Jeff McNeilColorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PM+6001.0%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form
Marco GonzalesMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM+11001.0%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model &mdash; P(no HR)&ge;20% or P(under 1.5 HR)&ge;52.2% for a model signal
GameTime (ET)Home SPAway SPPark HRP(No HR)P(U 1.5)DK ImpliedEdgeV2 Result
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics10:06 PMGage JumpNone1.0017.5%48.1%——
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels9:39 PMSam AldegheriShane McClanahan0.9817.1%47.4%——
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants10:16 PMLanden RouppJavier Assad0.8216.9%46.9%——
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PMBraxton AshcraftSandy Alcantara0.9616.4%46.1%——
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets7:15 PMNolan McLeanSpencer Strider0.9315.3%44.0%——
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers7:41 PMJacob MisiorowskiAndrew Painter1.0815.2%43.9%——
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals8:11 PMLuinder AvilaTatsuya Imai0.9315.0%43.5%——
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins8:11 PMJoe RyanKyle Leahy0.9515.0%43.4%——
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox7:11 PMSonny GrayJack Leiter0.9514.1%41.7%——
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays7:37 PMNoneRyan Weathers0.9613.8%41.1%——
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles7:06 PMShane BazGriffin Canning1.0013.3%40.0%——
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals6:46 PMZack LittellBryce Miller1.0213.1%39.6%——
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians7:11 PMTanner BibeeJack Flaherty0.9513.0%39.5%——
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox7:41 PMAnthony KayRoki Sasaki1.0012.0%37.4%——
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds7:16 PMNick LodoloEduardo Rodriguez1.1510.7%34.5%——

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies85.494.888.55Curveball (48% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 38.4%, put-away 34.3%, xwOBA 0.238, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals77.662.7100.07Slider (34% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.214, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Spencer StriderAtlanta Braves vs New York Mets68.170.969.54Changeup (52% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 32.7%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Braxton AshcraftPittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins65.964.971.05Curveball (40% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joe RyanMinnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals58.452.868.56Sweeper (33% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs58.355.963.55Curveball (39% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLeanNew York Mets vs Atlanta Braves56.254.862.56Curveball (40% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox54.862.646.53Slider (43% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahanTampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels54.859.157.04Changeup (34% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan WeathersNew York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays54.263.347.05Sweeper (44% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gage JumpAthletics vs Colorado Rockies50.540.960.55Slider (24% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin CanningSan Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles49.156.942.57Slider (38% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jack FlahertyDetroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians49.156.540.55Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack LeiterTexas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox48.957.840.56Slider (35% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luinder AvilaKansas City Royals vs Houston Astros47.848.445.05Slider (39% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner BibeeCleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers46.853.941.06Cutter (37% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates46.541.949.07Changeup (31% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sam AldegheriLos Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays46.043.250.54Changeup (40% whiff, 35% usage)Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya ImaiHouston Astros vs Kansas City Royals46.057.436.55Slider (37% whiff, 45% usage)Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew PainterPhiladelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers42.143.536.56Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane BazBaltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres41.342.041.05Curveball (29% whiff, 34% usage)Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny GrayBoston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers41.341.541.06Sweeper (34% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo RodriguezArizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds38.740.639.55Curveball (24% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Javier AssadChicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants33.826.542.074-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 15.1%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Anthony KayChicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers31.738.621.56Sweeper (29% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick LodoloCincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks31.741.512.04Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.391, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kyle LeahySt. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins29.344.012.56Changeup (43% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.390, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zack LittellWashington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners29.133.221.05Slider (22% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Eduardo RodriguezArizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati RedsL18.5%6.06.06.0101deepfull39.5060.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.1%
Gage JumpAthletics vs Colorado RockiesL20.2%6.06.05.9101deepfull60.5039.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Spencer StriderAtlanta Braves vs New York MetsR26.0%5.25.15.387normalfull69.5030.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Shane BazBaltimore Orioles vs San Diego PadresR20.4%6.45.96.0107deepfull41.0059.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Sonny GrayBoston Red Sox vs Texas RangersR21.9%5.65.15.294normalfull41.0059.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Javier AssadChicago Cubs vs San Francisco GiantsR18.3%2.910.76.449shortfull42.0058.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.9 IP/start
Anthony KayChicago White Sox vs Los Angeles DodgersL18.0%5.25.55.587normalfull21.5078.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.5%
Nick LodoloCincinnati Reds vs Arizona DiamondbacksL19.7%5.35.45.589normalfull12.0088.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Tanner BibeeCleveland Guardians vs Detroit TigersR18.1%6.25.55.6104deepfull41.0059.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jack FlahertyDetroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansR26.9%4.94.44.582shortfull40.5059.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Tatsuya ImaiHouston Astros vs Kansas City RoyalsR22.6%5.04.34.784shortfull36.5063.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Luinder AvilaKansas City Royals vs Houston AstrosR21.0%3.610.46.460shortfull45.0055.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.6 IP/start
Sam AldegheriLos Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay RaysL19.5%2.812.05.747shortfull50.5049.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White SoxR26.0%5.85.36.097normalfull46.5053.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.5%
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins vs Pittsburgh PiratesR17.7%6.26.46.3104deepfull49.0051.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia PhilliesR37.6%6.86.06.2114deepfull88.5011.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Joe RyanMinnesota Twins vs St. Louis CardinalsR28.3%6.25.46.0104deepfull68.5031.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Nolan McLeanNew York Mets vs Atlanta BravesR24.6%5.35.55.589normalfull62.5037.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Ryan WeathersNew York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysL27.0%6.15.86.0102deepfull47.0053.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.5%
Andrew PainterPhiladelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersR18.0%4.95.35.282shortfull36.5063.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Braxton AshcraftPittsburgh Pirates vs Miami MarlinsR26.7%6.16.16.1102deepfull71.0029.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Griffin CanningSan Diego Padres vs Baltimore OriolesR22.4%4.54.64.976shortfull42.5057.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Chicago CubsR24.6%5.15.35.386shortfull63.5036.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Washington NationalsR26.4%5.36.86.089normalfull100.000.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Kyle LeahySt. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota TwinsR18.6%4.84.94.980shortfull12.5087.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start
Shane McClanahanTampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles AngelsL23.6%5.05.05.084shortfull57.0043.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Jack LeiterTexas Rangers vs Boston Red SoxR23.5%5.55.55.592normalfull40.5059.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Zack LittellWashington Nationals vs Seattle MarinersR17.2%5.67.16.794normalfull21.0079.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski OverPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers18.522.03.519.1%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.2114season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handBooks Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
Nick LodoloNick Lodolo UnderArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds17.515.0-2.514.2%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.589season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.2% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap -2.48 <= 3 min
Braxton AshcraftBraxton Ashcraft OverMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates18.520.11.68.5%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.1102season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (4 books)
Joe RyanJoe Ryan OverSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins17.518.51.05.8%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)
Eduardo RodriguezEduardo Rodriguez OverArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds17.518.40.84.9%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0101season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
Ryan WeathersRyan Weathers OverNew York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays18.519.40.94.8%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0102season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.9 (5 books)
Jack LeiterJack Leiter UnderTexas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox17.516.7-0.84.4%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.592season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
Sandy AlcantaraSandy Alcantara OverMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates18.519.20.73.9%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.3104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (5 books)
Tanner BibeeTanner Bibee UnderDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians17.517.2-0.31.5%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep5.6104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)
Nolan McLeanNolan McLean UnderAtlanta Braves @ New York Mets17.517.3-0.21.3%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.589season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books)

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

234 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap
PlayerGameResearch SideComponent ProjHRRBICurrentUncertaintySupportFlags
Noelvi MarteArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati RedsOver 1.52.911.550.680.682.77 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Andy PagesLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White SoxOver 1.52.701.120.650.923.06 / Over0.35season_games=68,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Francisco AlvarezAtlanta Braves @ New York MetsOver 1.52.661.530.560.562.73 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan WalkerSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota TwinsOver 1.52.651.160.690.802.44 / Over0.35season_games=65,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
James WoodSeattle Mariners @ Washington NationalsOver 1.52.630.971.000.662.09 / Over0.40season_games=69,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White SoxOver 1.52.571.140.760.672.68 / Over0.35season_games=67,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben RiceNew York Yankees @ Toronto Blue JaysOver 1.52.531.080.740.712.60 / Over0.40season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
CJ AbramsSeattle Mariners @ Washington NationalsOver 1.52.521.000.720.801.94 / Over0.40season_games=67,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Endy RodriguezMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.501.400.550.552.50 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Corbin CarrollArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati RedsOver 1.52.411.080.720.612.73 / Over0.35season_games=65,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt OlsonAtlanta Braves @ New York MetsOver 1.52.411.040.680.692.32 / Over0.35season_games=68,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Randy ArozarenaSeattle Mariners @ Washington NationalsOver 1.52.401.110.730.562.53 / Over0.35season_games=70,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec BurlesonSt. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota TwinsOver 1.52.391.110.540.742.21 / Over0.35season_games=65,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto LopezMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.391.330.620.442.07 / Over0.35season_games=68,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ildemaro VargasArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati RedsOver 1.52.391.060.570.762.54 / Over0.35season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel VargasLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White SoxOver 1.52.370.880.790.712.30 / Over0.35season_games=66,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice TurangPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee BrewersOver 1.52.361.020.730.612.67 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon LoweMiami Marlins @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.350.950.670.732.54 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White SoxOver 1.52.351.110.610.632.46 / Over0.35season_games=66,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
William ContrerasPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee BrewersOver 1.52.291.150.530.622.59 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Christian WalkerHouston Astros @ Kansas City RoyalsOver 1.52.290.930.600.762.24 / Over0.35season_games=69,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon DinglerDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland GuardiansOver 1.52.290.950.530.812.52 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal StewartArizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati RedsOver 1.52.280.970.600.712.21 / Over0.35season_games=67,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete AlonsoSan Diego Padres @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.52.260.940.640.692.16 / Over0.35season_games=70,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake BauersPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee BrewersOver 1.52.250.980.590.682.53 / Over0.35season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

SectionWhat it shows
V2 Ranked PlaysGrade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate SweepEvery evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust TiersSettled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion CriteriaThe concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation ImpactRuntime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data ReadinessInput availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's SlateDraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail SectionsMarket detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#CheckWhat it evaluatesPASS condition
1Baby LineLine size, batter opportunity, run-line cushionNo baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2Model EdgeProjection vs blended sportsbook line when available; selected line fallbackEdge ≥ threshold for the market type
3Books AgreeBlended market direction + consensus lean % across available booksBlended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4MatchupPark factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splitsPark/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5Role / InjuryConfirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concernsNo injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6Game ScriptCombined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spreadEnvironment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

GradeScoreRecommendationWhen to bet
A10–12, 0 FAILsBEST PLAYCore play — all six checks aligned
B7–9, ≤1 FAILGOOD ADDStrong play with minor caveats
C4–6PASSThin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D2–3 or model edge FAILPASSDo not bet — weak signal
F0–1HARD FADEConsider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

SignalMeaning
⭐ TOP PICKExisting Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best PlayTrusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong WatchWatch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research LeadResearch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused SignalPaused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

StageRecommendation behaviorEvidence needed
TrustedEligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
WatchVisible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
ResearchScored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
PausedShadow-only. No actionable recommendations.A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

PatternWhy it conflicts
Total Over + NRFIHigh-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFILow-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFIPitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total UnderPlayer production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

ElementMeaning
Progress barVisual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / totalRequests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

ColumnMeaning
Away ML / Home MLDraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RLRun line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
TotalOver/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con MLConsensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

ColumnMeaning
GradeV2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
TypeMoneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK OddsDraftKings price for that side
ImpliedDK implied probability after vig removal
ModelWin probability our model calculates independently
EdgeModel% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
BooksNumber of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

StepWhat it calculatesData sourceWeight
1. Pitching edge How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.
home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20
pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch
A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.		 FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck 50%
2. Offense edge How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.
home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100
off_edge = home_bat − away_bat
A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.		 MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 35%
3. Home field Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. Historical MLB average home-field effect +4%
4. Score diff score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)
The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.		 Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x)

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

SourceWeightStats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)65%xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)35%ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

StepCalculation
Base2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factorAverage of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factorAverage of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)
Park adjustmentRaw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage typeMeaning
Active recommendation marketTrusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated marketResearch markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow researchPaused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only sourceContext layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

ComponentPurposeRecommendation impact today
PitcherAssessmentStarter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch QualityFree public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research GateShows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component ResearchBreaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player ContextHome/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI ReviewOptional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

StateImpactHow to read it
READYAvailableThe input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATANon-blockingThe feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIALNon-blockingThe source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLENon-blockingThe odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSINGNon-blocking unless marked otherwiseThe configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITEDNon-blockingThe run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKINGAction neededA core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

StateHow it is used
Pre-lineupActive-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineupExact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverageThe model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

ArtifactUse it for
Main HTML reportDaily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTMLCandidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSONMachine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance reportSettled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSVSingle source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

ColumnMeaning
Away SP / Home SPProbable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI ScoreComposite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

LabelEdge RequiredSuggested Unit Size
FULL≥20%Full unit
HALF≥15%Half unit
QRTR≥15%Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)<15%No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

LabelWhat it means
HIGHBoth pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MEDOne or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOWModel running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

TermDefinition
xFIPExpected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent formLast 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factorVenue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
EdgeModel win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 betsFirst 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK noteThe "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.