MLB Betting Analyzer

Saturday, June 06 2026  |  Run at 7:54 AM
Game Bets · NRFI · K Props · Batter Props · Injuries · Weather
Odds API Quota
4130 / 20000 requests used (15870 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

RecordWin%P&L
Overall341W–231L–0P60%+6.50 uLast 14 days • 572 settled
Grade A23W–20L–0P53%-3.08 u
Grade B318W–211L–0P60%+9.58 u

All-time

RecordWin%P&L
Overall848W–717L–7P54%-69.78 uAll-time • 1572 settled
Grade A133W–104L–0P56%-4.79 u
Grade B715W–613L–7P54%-64.98 u
34 pending

Pending Bets

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-05-11Pitcher Hits AllowNathan Eovaldi5.5-143-PENDING-
2026-05-14Batter Total BasesByron Buxton1.5-121-PENDING-
2026-05-17Batter Total BasesShea Langeliers1.5-138-PENDING-
2026-05-20Batter Total BasesKyle Schwarber1.5-131-PENDING-
2026-06-01K PropChase Burns6.5-148-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIAlec Burleson1.5-147-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIBen Rice1.5-132-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBICJ Abrams1.5-113-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIJJ Wetherholt1.5-167-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIJames Wood1.5-133-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIJordan Walker1.5-155-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIJuan Soto1.5-120-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBINick Kurtz1.5-150-PENDING-
2026-06-06Batter H+R+RBIShea Langeliers1.5-144-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropBen Brown5.5122-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropBryce Miller4.5-140-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropJacob Misiorowski8.5120-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropJoe Ryan6.5-153-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropLanden Roupp4.5-144-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropLuinder Avila3.5-159-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropMatthew Liberatore4.5-126-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropNick Lodolo4.5-147-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropNolan McLean5.5-147-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropSpencer Strider6.5106-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropTanner Bibee4.5-160-PENDING-
2026-06-06K PropYoshinobu Yamamoto6.5-150-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher Earned RunShane McClanahan1.5-147-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher Hits AllowBraxton Ashcraft5.5-166-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher Hits AllowEduardo Rodriguez5.5111-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher Hits AllowKyle Bradish5.5-106-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher Hits AllowNick Lodolo6.5-160-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher Hits AllowTanner Bibee5.5-158-PENDING-
2026-06-06Pitcher OutsJacob Misiorowski17.5-183-PENDING-
2026-06-06Run LineDetroit Tigers+1.5-149-PENDING-

Recent Grade A Settled

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-06-05Pitcher Earned RunBrady Singer2.5-127-LOSS-1.000Brady Singer: 1.0 (line 2.5)
2026-06-05Pitcher Hits AllowBrady Singer5.5-137-LOSS-1.000Brady Singer: 4.0 (line 5.5)
2026-06-05Pitcher WalksKyle Leahy1.5-116-WIN+0.862Kyle Leahy: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-05Pitcher Hits AllowRyan Weathers5.5-159-LOSS-1.000Ryan Weathers: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-06-05K PropParker Messick5.5-155-LOSS-1.000Parker Messick: 4.0 (line 5.5)
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIAndy Pages1.5-132-LOSS-1.000Andy Pages: 1.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIBryce Harper1.5-120-WIN+0.833Bryce Harper: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIYordan Alvarez1.5-147-WIN+0.680Yordan Alvarez: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIKyle Schwarber1.5-143-WIN+0.699Kyle Schwarber: 6.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIDaylen Lile1.5-131-WIN+0.763Daylen Lile: 7.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WR
K Prop✅ TRUSTED25856%-5.34u6062%+3.58u11459%
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED16960%+12.89u4955%-0.23u333%
Run Line✅ TRUSTED12254%-2.56u3855%-2.03u3964%
Batter Walks👀 WATCH11067%+2.95u11067%+2.95u20%
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH4766%+7.01u4766%+7.01u10%
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH4347%-4.69u2348%-1.46u0-
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH3661%+0.41u3661%+0.41u1100%
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3174%+1.37u1765%-1.46u0-
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH8044%-11.96u580%+1.78u10%
Total🔬 RESEARCH4540%-8.55u367%+0.74u1100%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH450%-0.64u450%-0.64u0-
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED57951%-62.89u17255%-5.25u7551%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/4season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted4/5Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix
ComponentStatusCurrent UsageRecommendation ImpactNext Action
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 258, 14d N 60Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 3 candidate(s); season N 169, 14d N 49Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 122, 14d N 38Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessmentLIVEShared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch QualityLIVEFree public-data diagnostics; 27/28 assessment(s) scored.Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player ContextLIVEHome/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 17Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 43, 14d N 23Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 80, 14d N 5Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s)Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.Validate forward results before promotion.
Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 45, 14d N 3Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 4, 14d N 4Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s); season N 579, 14d N 172No actionable recommendations.🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research⛔ PAUSEDShadow component research; 231 candidate(s) emitted.No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI ReviewAPI ERROROptional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run
✓READYAvailableAI review: API error -- Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, read the docs: https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/error-codes/api-errors.', 'type
✓READYAvailableSavant: 664 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓READYAvailableSavant 1st-inn: 258 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓READYAvailableTeam NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5
✓READYAvailablePitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 168 team×pitch-type combinations
✓READYAvailablePitcher arsenal: 652 pitcher(s), 2809 pitch-type profiles
✓READYAvailableBatter pitch-type profiles: 497 player(s)
✓READYAvailableHandedness: 28 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓READYAvailableTeam recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴LATE DATANon-blockingLineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓READYAvailableBVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 28 SP matchup(s), 997 career PA
✓READYAvailableBatter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴LATE DATANon-blockingUmpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓READYAvailableRest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
✓READYAvailableBullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
✓READYAvailableBullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓READYAvailableWeather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓READYAvailableLine movement: 2168 market side(s) checked | 14 opening snapshot(s) created | 877 with movement
✓READYAvailableMarket health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓READYAvailablePlayer context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹPARTIALNon-blockingF5: 15 game(s) fetched | 0 with ML odds | 15 with total odds | 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓READYAvailableHRR research: 231 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓READYAvailableNo-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob
✓READYAvailableHR layers: batter Statcast 539 | batter bats 398 | batter hand splits 164 | pitcher HR splits 66 | batter pitch-type 497 | bullpen HR 31
✓READYAvailableHR model: 264 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction
MatchupTime (ET)Away MLHome MLAway RLHome RLTotalCon ML
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-136+113-1.5 (+123)+1.5 (-149)O/U 8.5AWAYBet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PM+129-156+1.5 (-168)-1.5 (+139)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2:16 PM+105-126+1.5 (-187)-1.5 (+153)O/U 9.5HOMEBet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM+124-149+1.5 (-163)-1.5 (+135)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays3:08 PM-110-110-1.5 (+149)+1.5 (-181)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PM+113-136+1.5 (-175)-1.5 (+144)O/U 10.0HOMEBet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PM+135-163+1.5 (-149)-1.5 (+124)O/U 9.0HOMEBet on DK
Athletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PM-102-119-1.5 (+151)+1.5 (-183)O/U 9.5HOMEBet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4:11 PM-105-115-1.5 (+148)+1.5 (-180)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins4:11 PM-149+123-1.5 (+113)+1.5 (-136)O/U 8.0AWAYBet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:36 PM+109-131+1.5 (-186)-1.5 (+153)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers7:36 PM-102-118-1.5 (+165)+1.5 (-202)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies9:10 PM-271+217-1.5 (-167)+1.5 (+138)O/U 10.5AWAYBet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM+282-362+1.5 (+134)-1.5 (-162)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres10:11 PM-120+100-1.5 (+139)+1.5 (-168)O/U 8.0AWAYBet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 3 Grade B | 738 Derisk/Monitor | 0 Pass | 0 Fade
View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

Checks: Baby Line | Model Edge | Books Agree | Matchup | Role/Injury | Game Script - 0 Grade A | 3 Grade B | 738 Derisk/Monitor

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (3 play(s))
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (+119) diff 27.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +119 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.78 (WHIP 1.16, BB% 8.8%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 103)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .320 | OPS .786
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +111->+119)
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (-103) diff 25.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.78 (WHIP 1.26, BB% 11.1%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 83 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .253 | OPS .725
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 19.0%, L7 18.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.8%/83 PA (adj 0.88x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -106->-103)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-166) diff 23.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.77 (WHIP 1.03, BB% 5.9%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 105)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.6%, L7 16.2%, season 20.5% (adj 0.92x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -165->-166)
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-166) — break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
▼ Derisk / Monitor Plays (738 play(s))
A SMALL PLAY ◔ Small Play K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 3.5 (-159) diff 68.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓✓––   ► SMALL PLAY
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 68.8% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.41K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Luinder Avila: K/9 8.4, proj 5.9K over 6.3 IP (season 13.1 IP/GS, recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 4 PA | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.6%, L7 21.6%, season 22.9% (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/11 (18%) | Season 2/11 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159 — A would have capped at B
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-159) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.41K, diff 68.8%, books 100%)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-152) diff 36.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 36.1% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.63K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Bryce Miller: K/9 8.6, proj 6.1K over 5.9 IP (season 7.0 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.221 | top pitch: Slider (48% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 24.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 59 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .224 | OPS .513
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 59 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.6%/59 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -140->-152)
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -152 — retained at B — would have capped at B
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-152) — break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.63K, diff 36.1%, books 100%)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Spencer Strider Over 6.5 (+106) diff 32.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +114 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 32.3% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.10K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Spencer Strider: K/9 10.2, proj 8.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 35.5% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Curveball (52% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 41.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Strider: 42 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .282 | OPS .744
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.9%, L7 22.3%, season 23.4%, active roster 22.7%/8 hitters, BVP 33.3%/42 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.67 | Season Avg 6.67
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 6.5
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — would have capped at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (+107) diff 27.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 7.5 -155 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 27.6% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.35K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.25)
  • Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 13.2, proj 10.8K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 39.1% | put-away% 33.7% | xwOBA 0.236 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 42.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .273 | OPS .580
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.6%, L7 20.1%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.4%/7 hitters (adj 1.01x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.00 | Season Avg 9.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 8.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +120->+107)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Keider Montero Under 4.5 (-159) diff 20.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.93K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.20)
  • Keider Montero: K/9 6.6, proj 3.6K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 17.7% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (26% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 36 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .233 | OPS .800
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 36 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.3%, L7 21.1%, season 23.2%, BVP 13.9%/36 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.91
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -165->-159)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Kochanowicz Over 3.5 (+128) diff 20.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -165 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.72K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.25)
  • Jack Kochanowicz: K/9 6.8, proj 4.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 28.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Kochanowicz: 68 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .180 | OPS .658
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 68 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.6%, L7 19.5%, season 20.1%, active roster 20.0%/7 hitters, BVP 20.6%/68 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.83
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Griffin Canning Over 4.5 (-112) diff 19.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.2% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.86K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Griffin Canning: K/9 8.5, proj 5.4K over 4.9 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS, recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 24.2% | xwOBA 0.347 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 53 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .294 | OPS .909
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 53 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.4%, L7 24.8%, season 21.9%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters, BVP 24.5%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 4.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.2% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.2% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Leiter Over 5.5 (+112) diff 17.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.2% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.94K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Jack Leiter: K/9 9.9, proj 6.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.5% | put-away% 22.7% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 20.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 39 PA | K% 43.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .081 | OPS .268
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 39 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 14.2%, L7 27.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 43.6%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.17
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +120->+112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (-124) diff 15.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 15.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.87K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 9.8, proj 6.4K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 26.8% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 18.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 20.6%, L7 16.2%, season 20.5%, active roster 19.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.75
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -119->-124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (-157) diff 12.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.4% / under 57.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.67K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Kyle Bradish: K/9 8.8, proj 4.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (43% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 83 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .253 | OPS .725
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 83 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 19.0%, L7 18.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.8%/83 PA (adj 0.88x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.42
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -141->-157)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 (-153) diff 10.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -144 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.46K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Tatsuya Imai: K/9 8.5, proj 5.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tatsuya Imai: 16 PA | K% 56.2% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .077 | OPS .327
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 18.7%, L7 20.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 56.2%/16 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/7 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -159->-153)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-132) diff 9.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.6, proj 4.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 18.7% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .320 | OPS .786
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 26 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 23.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.5%/6 hitters, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.33
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -120->-132)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 102 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Will Warren Under 5.5 (-146) diff 9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.53K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Will Warren: K/9 9.1, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Sweeper (24% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .342 | OPS 1.054
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 48 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.5%, L7 21.1%, season 22.0%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.83
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • K% trend: headwind -5.6 ppts (recent 20.2% vs season 25.8%)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -152->-146)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 7.5 (+120) diff 5.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -152 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.50)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 9.5, proj 7.9K over 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.097
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 20 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.5%, L7 20.4%, season 24.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 3/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.27
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5
  • K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 25.6%)
  • Line movement: against this side (line 6.5->7.5, odds -150->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (4 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Littell Under 3.5 (-166) diff 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 3.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.17K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.20)
  • Zack Littell: K/9 6.1, proj 3.3K over 6.7 IP (season 7.4 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 15.4% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.379 | top pitch: Slider (23% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 23.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .309 | OPS .965
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 48 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.7%, L7 20.5%, season 20.3%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Andrew Painter Under 4.5 (-155) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.19K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Andrew Painter: K/9 7.0, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.9%, L7 20.4%, season 24.0% (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.91
  • Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 (+115) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 2.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.14K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Shane McClanahan: K/9 8.5, proj 5.6K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.2%, L7 25.7%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.82
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +111->+115)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-156) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.07K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +1.00)
  • Ranger Suarez: K/9 9.4, proj 5.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 43.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 104 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .289 | OPS .791
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 104 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.7%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 25.0%/104 PA (adj 1.01x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/12 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.18
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 4.5->5.5, odds +127->-156)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-183) diff 23.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 21.551 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 23.1% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.9 IP (xFIP 2.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.9 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .273 | OPS .580
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.6%, L7 20.1%, season 23.8% (adj 1.01x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.4%, L7 11.9%, season 8.2% (adj 1.08x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -180->-183)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-183) + role/script uncertainty — B would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-124) diff 15.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -106 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 20.241 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.7% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 109
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.6%, L7 16.2%, season 20.5% (adj 0.92x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.6%, L7 10.8%, season 8.3% (adj 1.07x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 18.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.74 <= 3 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.74 <= 3 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 (+101) diff 14.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +101 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 14.963 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 50%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.52 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .294 | OPS .745
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 11.2%, L7 8.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.60
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/5 under 17.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.54 <= 3 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.54 <= 3 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (+116) diff 11.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +122 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 20.684 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.8% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.36 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.097
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.5%, L7 20.4%, season 24.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.8%, L7 7.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.09x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 18.91
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (-103) diff 6.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 16.414 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 97
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .195 | OPS .657
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.9%, L7 22.6%, season 23.0%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.1%, L7 6.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.9%/45 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 15.92
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +101->-103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Joe Ryan Over 17.5 (-170) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 18.332 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.3 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 141 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .229 | OPS .666
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.1%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.2%, L7 11.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 5.0%/141 PA (adj 1.07x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.5%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.23
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jack Leiter Under 17.5 (+101) diff 3.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +101 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 16.917 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.87 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 39 PA | K% 43.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .081 | OPS .268
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 14.2%, L7 27.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 43.6%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 10.8%, L7 5.8%, season 10.5%, BVP 0.0%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.5%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.58
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->+101)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 18.5 (+121) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -155 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 19.003999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 107
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .320 | OPS .786
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.3%, L7 9.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 18.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: against this side (line 17.5->18.5, odds -156->+121)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Under 17.5 (+103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 17.212000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.3 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 90) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 23.7%, L7 23.8%, season 23.5% (adj 1.03x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.1%, L7 9.9%, season 8.9% (adj 1.07x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.58
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Kyle Bradish Under 17.5 (+102) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)
  • Proj 17.413999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, low-K contact opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 83 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .253 | OPS .725
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 19.0%, L7 18.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.8%/83 PA (adj 0.88x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 7.5%, L7 5.6%, season 7.6%, BVP 8.4%/83 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.9%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -105->+102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Lodolo Under 6.5 (-158) diff 23.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 5.0 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 23.1% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.96 (WHIP 1.36, BB% 9.3%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .294 | OPS .745
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/5 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -160->-158)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty — B would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zack Littell Under 5.5 (+109) diff 10.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.92 (WHIP 1.25, BB% 7.6%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .309 | OPS .965
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.7%, L7 20.5%, season 20.3%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.17
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +113->+109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Kochanowicz Over 5.5 (-144) diff 10.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.14 (WHIP 1.63, BB% 11.4%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Kochanowicz: 68 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .180 | OPS .658
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.6%, L7 19.5%, season 20.1%, BVP 20.6%/68 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.92
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 (-165) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.12 (WHIP 1.48, BB% 8.6%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 47 PA | K% 31.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .777
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 21.1%, L7 27.6%, season 24.6%, BVP 31.9%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.83
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-112) diff 40.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -112 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 1.67 (xFIP 2.30, ERA 1.36)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .273 | OPS .580
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.6%, L7 20.1%, season 23.8% (adj 1.01x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -105->-112)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-141) diff 36.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 2.75 (xFIP 3.23, ERA 2.75)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 105)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.6%, L7 16.2%, season 20.5% (adj 0.92x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Spencer Strider Over 1.5 (-173) diff 33.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.64 (xFIP 4.06, ERA 3.82)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Strider: 42 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .282 | OPS .744
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.9%, L7 22.3%, season 23.4%, BVP 33.3%/42 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.17 | Season Avg 2.17
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 over 1.5
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 2.5->1.5, odds +127->-173)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-146) diff 33.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.85 (xFIP 3.58, ERA 4.90)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 90)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 23.7%, L7 23.8%, season 23.5% (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.58
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Under 2.5 (-165) diff 32.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.12 (xFIP 3.51, ERA 3.08)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 141 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .229 | OPS .666
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.1%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -159->-165)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (-147) diff 26.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.34 (xFIP 3.90, ERA 2.59)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 19.2%, L7 25.7%, season 22.1% (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (-143) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.37 (xFIP 4.52, ERA 4.90)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .294 | OPS .745
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -138->-143)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Littell Over 2.5 (-125) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.25 (xFIP 5.04, ERA 3.95)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .309 | OPS .965
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.7%, L7 20.5%, season 20.3%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -129->-125)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-146) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.15 (xFIP 3.36, ERA 2.99)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.097
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.5%, L7 20.4%, season 24.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (-124) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.72 (xFIP 4.13, ERA 2.95)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 83 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .253 | OPS .725
  • Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 19.0%, L7 18.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.8%/83 PA (adj 0.88x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -125->-124)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-126) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.71 (xFIP 4.27, ERA 2.27)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 103)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .320 | OPS .786
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -136->-126)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Leiter Under 2.5 (-151) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.99 (xFIP 3.87, ERA 3.85)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 39 PA | K% 43.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .081 | OPS .268
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 14.2%, L7 27.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 43.6%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -146->-151)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Canning Over 2.5 (+112) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.35 (xFIP 4.23, ERA 6.50)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 91)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 53 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .294 | OPS .909
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 20.4%, L7 24.8%, season 21.9%, BVP 24.5%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/6 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-104) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.13 (xFIP 4.44, ERA 5.70)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.9%, L7 20.4%, season 24.0% (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.09
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -108->-104)
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Luinder Avila Under 2.5 (-165) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.21 (xFIP 4.34, ERA 3.72)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 4 PA | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.6%, L7 21.6%, season 22.9% (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.18
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Kochanowicz Under 3.5 (-136) diff 5.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -136 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.78 (xFIP 4.72, ERA 6.55)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Kochanowicz: 68 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .180 | OPS .658
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.6%, L7 19.5%, season 20.1%, BVP 20.6%/68 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 (-138) Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.46 (xFIP 4.03, ERA 4.32)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 47 PA | K% 31.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .777
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 21.1%, L7 27.6%, season 24.6%, BVP 31.9%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-114) Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.76 (xFIP 4.37, ERA 4.45)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tatsuya Imai: 16 PA | K% 56.2% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .077 | OPS .327
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 18.7%, L7 20.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 56.2%/16 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.57 | Season Avg 2.57
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/7 under 2.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -120->-114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Under 2.5 (-142) Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.44 (xFIP 4.13, ERA 4.56)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .195 | OPS .657
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.9%, L7 22.6%, season 23.0%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.69
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -139->-142)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-240) diff 55.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact
Checks: ✓!!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.67 (AVG 0.200)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 6/30 (20%) | L5 3/16 (19%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 43/51 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.67
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/29 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Hits: 20/22 under 1.5 (91%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Hits: 43/51 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.67
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -209->-240)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-235) diff 53.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact
Checks: ✓!!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.70 (AVG 0.233)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/30 (27%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 43/53 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/30 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Hits: 19/23 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Hits: 43/53 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.70
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -223->-235)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-179) diff 49.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.76 (AVG 0.230)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/33 (27%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/58 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.76
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/33 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Hits: 21/25 under 1.5 (84%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 50/58 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.76
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-189) diff 43.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price
Checks: ✓!✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-133) diff 43.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-251) diff 42.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (6)
  • Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-226) diff 42.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -226 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.224)
  • Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.245 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/62 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.92
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 51/62 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.92
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-243) diff 34.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.250)
  • Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.383 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/43 (23%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/63 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/32 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 49/63 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake Bauers Under 1.5 (-208) diff 34.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.277)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/33 (24%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 38/54 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.98
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-240) diff 33.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.230)
  • Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/36 (31%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.92
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/30 under 1.5 (87%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter Hits: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 50/63 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.92
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-232) diff 33.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.288)
  • Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/36 (39%) | L5 8/17 (47%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/60 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter Hits: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-170) diff 32.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.280)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/33 (24%) | L5 8/17 (47%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 20/24 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -159->-170)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-259) diff 31.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.260)
  • Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.381 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/64 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 44/64 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.05
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -258->-259)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-260) diff 29.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.263)
  • Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/62 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/32 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +200->-260)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-154) diff 26.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.280)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 6/37 (16%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 41/57 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.11
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 18/24 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-227) diff 26.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.259)
  • Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.287 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/37 (22%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.97
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/33 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 50/61 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-220) diff 25.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.285)
  • Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 12/43 (28%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/64 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 27/32 under 1.5 (84%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 48/64 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.08
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -228->-220)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-248) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.316)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 15/38 (40%) | L5 8/18 (44%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/64 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.14
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 42/64 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -256->-248)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-247) diff 22.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.249)
  • Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.380 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 12/41 (29%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/58 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.97
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -233->-247)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Tyler Freeman Under 1.5 (-237) diff 22.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.276)
  • Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.416 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/40 (35%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/61 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/32 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-237) diff 22.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.276)
  • Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.416 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/40 (35%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/61 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/32 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-204) diff 19.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.254)
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.394 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/59 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-243) diff 18.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.326)
  • Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.399 (16 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/38 (37%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/61 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.28
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter Hits: 21/35 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter Hits: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-223) diff 18.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.288)
  • Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.341 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.300 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/60 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.07
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.07
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -240->-223)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-203) diff 17.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.23 (AVG 0.320)
  • Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.540 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/57 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.23
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.23
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -226->-203)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Shea Langeliers Under 1.5 (-267) diff 16.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.16 (AVG 0.284)
  • Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309 (44 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 6/40 (15%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 36/57 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.16
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 15/25 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.16
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -269->-267)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-208) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.296)
  • Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.412 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.270
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 16/39 (41%) | L5 10/21 (48%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/58 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.14
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.14
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -217->-208)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-257) diff 8.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.297)
  • Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.19x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363 (14 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/60 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-249) diff 8.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.291)
  • Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.400 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/60 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.13
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.13
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -258->-249)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-155) diff 114.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 3.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 114.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.60
  • Base projection 2.60 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.540 (14 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/60 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 18/27 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.96 | Day Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.60
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), heavy juice -155 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-152) diff 96.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 96.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
  • Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.577 (23 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 35/60 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.35
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 16/27 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -147->-152)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.4, heavy juice -152 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-145) diff 92.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
  • Base projection 2.52 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.466, xSLG 0.661 (83 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/64 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.52
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.75 | Away Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -133->-145)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.4 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-117) diff 87.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
  • Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.474, xSLG 0.627 (63 PA, adj 1.09x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/63 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.46
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.46
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -113->-117)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (-103) diff 84.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.529 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 31/59 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.27
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -107->-103)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-144) diff 78.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
  • Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.391 (44 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/57 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.44
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.60 | Away Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.44
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-124) diff 76.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
  • Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.450, xSLG 0.627 (27 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 26/46 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.30
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/22 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.86 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.30
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -120->-124)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-133) diff 72.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
  • Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.398 (42 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 35/62 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.34
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 21/34 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 35/62 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.34
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -150->-133)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-128) diff 72.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.69
  • Base projection 2.69 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.339 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/58 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.69
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/26 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.91 | Day Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.69
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -132->-128)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-160) diff 68.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.386 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/58 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -167->-160)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -160 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (-132) diff 63.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
  • Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.610 (34 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/61 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -137->-132)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (-111) diff 63.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.560, xSLG 0.892 (11 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/26 over 1.5 (77%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-128) diff 60.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/62 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 60.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
  • Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.466 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 26/51 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 14/26 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-146) diff 58.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
  • Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.405 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.18
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -142->-146)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-147) diff 54.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.613 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.25
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -141->-147)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-141) diff 51.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 44.4% | OPS 2.178
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-104) diff 51.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
  • Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/62 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.50
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.50
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.6% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.6% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (-128) diff 50.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.430, xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 31/60 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-126) diff 49.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/64 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.23
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -131->-126)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-112) diff 47.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
  • Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.463 (10 PA, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/56 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.39
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/21 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.39
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -109->-112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-133) diff 46.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.303 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-115) diff 46.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.388 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -110->-115)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-122) diff 43.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
  • Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.568 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .583
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/62 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/29 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.79 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 37/62 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -126->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-115) diff 43.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
  • Base projection 2.52 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.315 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/64 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.52
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 23/33 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 40/64 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.52
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-150) diff 42.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.313 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/61 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-108) diff 42.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
  • Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.400 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.36
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.36
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-115) diff 40.6% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 35/64 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 19/30 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-120) diff 40.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/61 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 20/31 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 1.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-142) diff 40.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.467 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -147->-142)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-121) diff 39.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
  • Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.493 (16 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/61 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/26 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Under 2.5 (+106) diff 39.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Under 2.5 (-127) diff 39.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-139) diff 39.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
  • Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/60 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.28
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-115) diff 38.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.559 (34 PA, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -116->-115)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-137) diff 37.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
  • Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.468 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.89
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-125) diff 37.8% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.343 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 25 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 4.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .769
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 25 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Frelick Under 2.5 (-143) diff 37.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/58 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/33 under 2.5 (79%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 19/25 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 45/58 under 2.5 (78%), avg 1.57
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -148->-143)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+122) diff 37.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +118->+122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-110) diff 36.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.514, xSLG 0.807 (11 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/61 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 35.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.185, xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/63 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/33 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 20/30 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 42/63 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-142) diff 34.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.580 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+119) diff 34.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.580 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-113) diff 34.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.421, xSLG 0.641 (27 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/62 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-140) diff 34.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.286 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 14/25 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -135->-140)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+115) diff 33.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Under 2.5 (-148) diff 33.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 41/53 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/30 under 2.5 (77%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 18/23 under 2.5 (78%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 41/53 under 2.5 (77%), avg 1.66
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -143->-148)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-104) diff 33.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
  • Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.524 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.80
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-107) diff 33.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
  • Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.358 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/58 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 18/28 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.24
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -111->-107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-105) diff 32.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.691 (23 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -109->-105)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-102) diff 32.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
  • Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.150, xSLG 0.112 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/49 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 13/24 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.33
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -107->-102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+103) diff 32.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
  • Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.326 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+118) diff 31.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.417 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/61 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 18/33 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-121) diff 31.2% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/63 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -112->-121)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+103) diff 30.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.303 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/34 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+114) diff 30.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.283 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/55 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +110->+114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-155) diff 30.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.139, xSLG 0.115 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter HRR: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.33
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -146->-155)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-104) diff 29.9% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
  • Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.249 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -108->-104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-103) diff 29.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.518 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 26/60 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -107->-103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (-123) diff 28.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.264 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/62 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-102) diff 27.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
  • Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.279 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/64 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-119) diff 27.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
  • Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.274 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Over 1.5 (-125) diff 25.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.285 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/52 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-115) diff 25.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.322 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -119->-115)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-130) diff 25.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 31/65 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -135->-130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-125) diff 25.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.340 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/64 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-108) diff 25.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
  • Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.394 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/64 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-109) diff 25.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.201, xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.064
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 27/57 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-118) diff 25.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
  • Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.510, xSLG 0.840 (12 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 27/50 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.96
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 17/25 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-174) diff 23.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.393 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 18/34 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-115) diff 23.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.186 (19 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/55 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 14/25 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-112) diff 23.8% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -108->-112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+136) diff 23.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.328 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 80.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/62 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +133->+136)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-109) diff 23.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.355 (20 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 32/56 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/22 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 22/34 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-141) diff 23.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/63 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-126) diff 22.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.428 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 32 PA | 7/31 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | OPS .573
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 32 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/64 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.03
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -130->-126)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+107) diff 22.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.545 (14 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/60 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.98
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +112->+107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-105) diff 22.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mark Vientos Over 1.5 (+114) diff 21.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
  • Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.409, xSLG 0.674 (28 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 80.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 23/54 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.59
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.59
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adolis Garcia Under 1.5 (-143) diff 21.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -143 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.31
  • Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.161, xSLG 0.230 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 42/62 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/34 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter HRR: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.31
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -148->-143)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-133) diff 21.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.38
  • Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.485, xSLG 0.726 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/61 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.38
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter HRR: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 43/61 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.38
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -128->-133)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 21.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.526 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 23/59 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +102->+106)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-139) diff 20.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.183, xSLG 0.198 (18 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/61 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.81 | Day Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -135->-139)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-139) diff 20.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.38
  • Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.191 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/53 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.38
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter HRR: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (-123) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/56 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/27 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.70
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -135->-123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-121) diff 19.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.546, xSLG 0.863 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/57 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/26 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-114) diff 18.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.388 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-143) diff 17.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
  • Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.322 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/64 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.92
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/33 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 33/64 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (-149) diff 17.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 20/30 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 37/60 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+101) diff 17.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.120 (17 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/62 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +110->+101)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-169) diff 17.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.23
  • Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.266 (67 PA, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/60 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-175) diff 16.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
  • Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/55 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 21/27 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter HRR: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -164->-175)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-166) diff 16.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.301 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/34 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+129) diff 16.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
  • Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/64 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 18/33 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 30/64 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-167) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.34
  • Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/56 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.34
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 14/27 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-107) diff 15.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.577 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/64 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+108) diff 14.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.294 (15 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 16/36 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +111->+108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+108) diff 14.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.332 (11 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .879
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -102->+108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-109) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.229 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 9 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .375
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 24/60 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (+122) diff 13.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.29
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 32/51 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.29
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 13/22 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.29
  • Line movement: against this side (line 2.5->1.5, odds -154->+122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+104) diff 12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.437 (60 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/62 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-123) diff 12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 31/58 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.09
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -128->-123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+102) diff 12.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.322 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/60 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Chapman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 12.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.438 (15 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 19/36 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-106) diff 12.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
  • Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-128) diff 11.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
  • Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/59 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -132->-128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-145) diff 11.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/59 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+101) diff 11.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.451 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/64 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Baty Over 1.5 (+126) diff 10.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.339 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/59 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter HRR: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 2.5 (-101) diff 10.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 2.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.76 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.529 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 24/59 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/31 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 10/28 over 2.5 (36%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 24/59 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-103) diff 10.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.184, xSLG 0.245 (15 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/50 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 13/24 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 (-112) diff 10.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.319 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/55 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -118->-112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (-101) diff 10.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.319 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/55 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-170) diff 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.39
  • Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.315 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 41/61 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.39
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter HRR: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -166->-170)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-129) diff 8.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
  • Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.104, xSLG 0.098 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 37/59 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-183) diff 8.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.089, xSLG 0.100 (15 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/61 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 36/61 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.62
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +133->-183)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (-109) diff 8.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 2.70 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
  • Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.510 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.270
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.41
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/28 over 2.5 (32%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 2.5 (57%), avg 2.93 | Day Batter HRR: 26/58 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.41
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -105->-109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Under 2.5 (-117) diff 8.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.30 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/57 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.30
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/33 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 18/24 under 2.5 (75%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.30
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -112->-117)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-117) diff 8.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.478 (11 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/61 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.69
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-108) diff 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
  • Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.78x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.320 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/61 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 22/33 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+103) diff 7.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Over 1.5 (+118) diff 7.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+102) diff 7.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
  • Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.443 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 31/59 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+102) diff 6.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.193 (11 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/64 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 18/36 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -101->+102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-137) diff 6.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.283 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .615
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.57
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Andujar Under 1.5 (-137) diff 6.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Under 1.5 (-139) diff 6.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-166) diff 6.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-147) diff 6.7% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.31
  • Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.319 (20 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/59 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.31
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/26 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter HRR: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter HRR: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.31
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -152->-147)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+108) diff 6.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.432 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/59 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.95
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +104->+108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-122) diff 6.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
  • Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.430, xSLG 0.629 (26 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.53
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.53
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -118->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-156) diff 6.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Freeland Over 1.5 (+105) diff 6.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Call Over 1.5 (+106) diff 6.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Under 1.5 (-103) diff 6.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.227 (24 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.47
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Under 2.5 (-125) diff 5.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.35 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/54 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 14/24 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 31/54 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.35
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-169) diff 5.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.139, xSLG 0.147 (17 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/64 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 16/33 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 36/64 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.75
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-172) diff 5.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.270 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/53 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/25 under 1.5 (40%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 27/53 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.77
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -161->-172)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-135) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -140->-135)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -119->-114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcelo Mayer Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +121->+125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Gasper Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +131->+126)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +124->+128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 (+115) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.62 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
  • Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.456 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.300 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/60 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/32 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 8/28 over 2.5 (29%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 21/60 over 2.5 (35%), avg 2.22
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +120->+115)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
  • Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.370 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/59 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +109->+113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.318 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 26/60 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-143) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-131) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -126->-131)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brent Rooker Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -110->-114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-111) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Meyers Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Darell Hernaiz Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +127->+123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Vazquez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +130->+134)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.154, xSLG 0.176 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 20 PA | 6/20 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .650
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Under 2.5 (-162) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.40 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
  • Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/33 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 40/61 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +114->+108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-136) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-122) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -117->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-119) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adrian Del Castillo Over 1.5 (-112) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -113->-112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Troy Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pavin Smith Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Barrosa Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +108->+105)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 2.5 (+116) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.58 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
  • Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.369 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/64 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.45
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/32 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 12/32 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 24/64 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.45
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-122) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
  • Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.176, xSLG 0.244 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 23 PA | 4/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .822
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 23 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/61 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.64
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 16/31 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 35/61 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.64
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.178, xSLG 0.221 (51 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 33 PA | 9/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .803
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 33 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/63 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 23/63 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +112->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.368 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/59 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Under 2.5 (-122) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.45 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.45
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/34 under 2.5 (56%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter HRR: 17/24 under 2.5 (71%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 36/58 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.45
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -115->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Under 2.5 (-160) diff 2.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.45 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
  • Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.610 (34 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/61 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 under 2.5 (62%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 under 2.5 (55%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 36/61 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.15
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -167->-160)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-145) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -140->-145)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+100) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +104->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Romo Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rikuu Nishida Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Under 2.5 (-167) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.46 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
  • Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.540, xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/57 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.47
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/27 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.85 | Away Batter HRR: 18/30 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 32/57 under 2.5 (56%), avg 2.47
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 1.5->2.5, odds +119->-167)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Raley Over 1.5 (-114) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Emerson Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -102->+102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jhonny Pereda Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +112->+117)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-132) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -136->-132)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-109) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -110->-109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (-102) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +100->+103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yohendrick Pinango Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +117->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +117->+122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.248 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/60 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -117->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-123) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -127->-123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nelson Velazquez Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-111) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — David Hamilton Over 1.5 (-150) diff 1.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -113->-106)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-127) diff 1.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter HRR: 13/31 under 1.5 (42%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 37/64 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.48
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -128->-127)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-151) diff 1.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
  • Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.407 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/57 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.58
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 under 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.58
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-126) diff 0.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/61 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/28 under 1.5 (39%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 31/61 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-140) diff 0.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.432 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 23/59 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -136->-140)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
  • Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.331 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -154->-160)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Under 1.5 (-111) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -114->-111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-121) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -116->-121)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Under 1.5 (-124) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -123->-124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Under 1.5 (-148) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -151->-148)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Manzardo Under 1.5 (-151) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -146->-151)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-120) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.091, xSLG 0.108 (20 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-116) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Under 1.5 (-128) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Under 1.5 (-142) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-162) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Gray Under 1.5 (-170) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Under 1.5 (-177) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Under 2.5 (-132) Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.50 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/64 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.50
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 under 2.5 (39%), avg 2.73 | Away Batter HRR: 20/31 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 33/64 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.50
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -136->-132)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-107) diff 76.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.12
  • Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.25x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.540 (14 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/60 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.12
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter TB: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.12
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-104) diff 62.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.23
  • Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.391 (44 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/57 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.23
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -108->-104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-123) diff 60.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.300 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 29/60 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -117->-123)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.4% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+105) diff 59.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.613 (27 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +109->+105)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+123) diff 58.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.04
  • Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.627 (27 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/46 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.04
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/22 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter TB: 8/24 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+107) diff 57.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.05
  • Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.661 (83 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/64 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.05
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +110->+107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 55.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.33
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/64 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.33
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 30/64 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.33
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -124->-126)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.2% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+113) diff 51.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.27x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.577 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+117) diff 49.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.36
  • Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.339 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/58 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.36
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/26 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter TB: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.36
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+139) diff 49.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.627 (63 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/63 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+147) diff 49.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.529 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-127) diff 49.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.529 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -132->-127)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-125) diff 46.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.19x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.510 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.270
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -120->-125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-151) diff 45.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 0.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 0.82
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/51 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.82
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/29 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter TB: 17/22 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.82
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -139->-151)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (+111) diff 39.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.610 (34 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+102) diff 39.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.610 (34 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+107) diff 38.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.67
  • Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 44.4% | OPS 2.178
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 19/58 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/29 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+137) diff 38.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.892 (11 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/26 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +132->+137)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-106) diff 37.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.369 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/64 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+126) diff 36.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.21
  • Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.463 (10 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/56 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.21
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +130->+126)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-197) diff 35.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.13
  • Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.726 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/61 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.13
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 46/61 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.13
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -189->-197)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-101) diff 33.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/57 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->-101)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Under 1.5 (-184) diff 33.3% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.05
  • Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.227 (24 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/58 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/31 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.05
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -191->-184)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-121) diff 29.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.05
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/58 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 19/25 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-104) diff 29.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/62 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.77
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +101->-104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+120) diff 28.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.76
  • Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (42 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +103->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-128) diff 27.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.09
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 37/53 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/23 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -116->-128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+120) diff 26.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/62 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+134) diff 25.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.559 (34 PA, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/60 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.60
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +132->+134)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 24.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.88
  • Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.580 (41 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/64 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.88
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 27/64 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-168) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.28
  • Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 23 PA | 4/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .822
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 23 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/61 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.28
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 39/61 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.28
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+112) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.86
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/64 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+120) diff 23.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/60 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-178) diff 22.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.21
  • Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (11 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/61 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.21
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+116) diff 22.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/64 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter TB: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +120->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+106) diff 22.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -101->+106)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+126) diff 21.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.400 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-209) diff 21.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.27
  • Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.318 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 42/60 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.27
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-200) diff 20.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.77x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/61 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 39/61 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-187) diff 19.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/61 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.51
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -183->-187)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-102) diff 19.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 25/61 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-201) diff 19.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.108 (20 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 43/63 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.43
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -194->-201)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-164) diff 18.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.24
  • Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.432 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.24
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+122) diff 18.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.78
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-109) diff 18.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/60 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+114) diff 18.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.73
  • Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.264 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/62 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +118->+114)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+111) diff 18.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.78
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.467 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +107->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-205) diff 17.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.22
  • Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.229 (28 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 9 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .375
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/60 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.22
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-202) diff 17.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.25
  • Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.577 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/64 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.25
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/35 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 46/64 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-123) diff 17.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.76
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/54 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.76
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+138) diff 16.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.691 (23 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/61 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/29 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +132->+138)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+143) diff 16.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.388 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +151->+143)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-190) diff 15.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/64 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.47
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -179->-190)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-196) diff 15.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.358 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/58 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 15/28 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 33/58 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.43
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -186->-196)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+118) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 20/58 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 8/27 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-180) diff 13.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -180 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.18
  • Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.186 (19 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/55 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.18
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-126) diff 13.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.40
  • Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/62 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/34 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+140) diff 12.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-157) diff 12.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/59 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 15/26 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -152->-157)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-185) diff 12.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.388 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/63 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.41
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -191->-185)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.5% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.67
  • Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.807 (11 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/61 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+133) diff 12.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.69
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/64 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-171) diff 11.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 41/63 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.41
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-127) diff 11.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.67
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 5/24 over 1.5 (21%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -143->-127)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-197) diff 11.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.319 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/55 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.44
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -182->-197)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+150) diff 11.0% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.322 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +143->+150)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-102) diff 10.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.428 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 32 PA | 7/31 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | OPS .573
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 32 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/64 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 10.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+119) diff 9.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.66
  • Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.568 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .583
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/62 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.66
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter TB: 8/33 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +115->+119)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-143) diff 9.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.52
  • Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.322 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/64 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.52
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 41/64 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-168) diff 8.9% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.39
  • Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 25 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 4.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .769
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 25 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/62 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/29 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 41/62 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-186) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -185 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.30
  • Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.629 (26 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/57 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.30
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 20/27 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.30
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -188->-186)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-174) diff 7.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.27
  • Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.285 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/52 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.27
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 19/24 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.27
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -180->-174)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 7.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.72
  • Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (16 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.72
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Under 1.5 (-162) diff 6.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.32
  • Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/56 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.32
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/27 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.32
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -142->-162)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-187) diff 6.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.26
  • Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.641 (27 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/62 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.26
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+119) diff 6.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.72
  • Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +124->+119)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +116->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +134->+140)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/58 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/26 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.95
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +106->+110)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +135->+130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brent Rooker Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +135->+130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +125->+121)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+139) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-200) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.84x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/64 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/31 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 36/64 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.70
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-190) diff 4.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.53
  • Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/59 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.53
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 16/28 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.53
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-154) diff 4.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.30
  • Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.468 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/30 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.30
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.48
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +145->+140)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 (-175) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.61
  • Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.340 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 38/64 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 15/29 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/64 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+139) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luke Raley Over 1.5 (+120) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +125->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/60 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 21/61 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/31 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 21/61 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+137) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (+144) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +112->+118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nelson Velazquez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +131->+135)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-115) diff 2.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+141) diff 2.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +137->+141)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Under 1.5 (-189) diff 2.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.112 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 30/49 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 under 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 17/24 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 30/49 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-180) diff 2.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.51
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+133) diff 2.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.840 (12 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/50 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +138->+133)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+131) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.064
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 20/57 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.63
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.198 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/61 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter TB: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +108->+105)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.863 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/26 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +116->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-179) diff 0.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (20 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/56 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/22 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 18/34 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.70
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -185->-179)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/65 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 25/65 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.57
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +104->+109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +120->+118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+144) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +134->+144)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (+104) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.49
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 33/57 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 14/24 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 33/57 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-108) edge 15.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8 -105 | best price
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [WEATHER] Precip chance 41% -- delay/postponement risk
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 8.0
  • Home SP: Jack Leiter (RHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.98
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Weather: Precip chance 41% -- delay/postponement risk
  • Stats within normal range
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -112->-108)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-114) edge 15.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | exact
Checks: –✓–––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • [IL] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
  • Home SP TBD
  • Jacob Misiorowski xFIP 2.30
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Away SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-115) edge 11.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • [OUT] Jommy Hernandez (Chicago White Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Kyle Backhus (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
  • Andrew Painter xFIP 4.44
  • Brandon Eisert xFIP 4.13
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 96)
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 102)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
  • Away SP: Brandon Eisert (LHP)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -118->-115)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-146) edge 9.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5)  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price
Checks: –✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • [OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
  • [OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Busch Stadium (PITCHER)
  • Matthew Liberatore xFIP 4.03
  • Nick Lodolo xFIP 4.52
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 98)
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
  • F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
  • Away SP: Nick Lodolo (LHP)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge 23.8% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Spencer Strider: xFIP 4.06, K% 27.9%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 35.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (26 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 30.8%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 20.5%
  • Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.23, K% 27.1%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.265, whiff% 28.7% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.195, K% 40.6%, BB% 6.2%, whiff% 40.0%
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.79
  • Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
  • NRFI rate: Spencer Strider: 50% (6 starts) | Braxton Ashcraft: 100% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +23.8%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -14.9%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 7.0 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 7.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-118) edge 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.23, K% 21.6%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.347, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.388, K% 24.1%, BB% 24.1%, whiff% 22.9%
  • Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.58, K% 24.9%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 31.6%, BB% 7.9%, whiff% 16.0%
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 92)
  • New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 93)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.98 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.83
  • Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
  • NRFI rate: Griffin Canning: 50% (6 starts) | Nolan McLean: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 30-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +8.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +1.0%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.4 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.4 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 6.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Lake Bachar: xFIP 4.09, K% 26.0%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.281, whiff% 34.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (3 PA): xwOBA 0.007, K% 66.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 18.2%
  • Shane McClanahan: xFIP 3.90, K% 23.2%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 27.6% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.219, K% 35.3%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 32.4%
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 97)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 0.74
  • Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 89% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.361 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +6.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +2.2%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -118->-120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge 4.9% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Will Warren: xFIP 3.67, K% 23.4%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.290, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.244, K% 37.1%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 23.8%
  • Ranger Suarez: xFIP 3.70, K% 24.6%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.301, whiff% 22.5% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.332, K% 27.8%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 26.5%
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 129 (team avg 104)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Will Warren: 78% (9 starts) | Ranger Suarez: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.229 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +4.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +4.2%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -106->-104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge 3.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.30, K% 39.0%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.236, whiff% 39.1% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.232, K% 43.2%, BB% 13.5%, whiff% 34.6%
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Coors Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.32)
  • NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 89% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +3.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -3.1%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-142) edge 1.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Ben Brown: xFIP 3.46, K% 26.4%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 28.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (19 PA): xwOBA 0.285, K% 26.3%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 29.0%
  • Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.48, K% 25.8%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.243, K% 28.6%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 31.1%
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.58, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.18, SO/G 0.49
  • Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Ben Brown: 80% (5 starts) | Landen Roupp: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 11-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +1.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +7.2%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-140) edge -3.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Joe Ryan: xFIP 3.51, K% 28.7%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.280, whiff% 25.6% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.318, K% 30.0%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 26.4%
  • Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.34, K% 22.1%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (4 PA): xwOBA 0.130, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 22.2%
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.82 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.83
  • Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Joe Ryan: 80% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.322 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge -3.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +12.3%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+116) edge -7.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +116
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Matthew Liberatore: xFIP 4.03, K% 24.8%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 22.5% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.353, K% 28.2%, BB% 5.1%, whiff% 24.3%
  • Nick Lodolo: xFIP 4.52, K% 20.1%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.392, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (21 PA): xwOBA 0.346, K% 28.6%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 22.2%
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 1.00
  • Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Matthew Liberatore: 56% (9 starts) | Nick Lodolo: 60% (5 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.272 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -7.1%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +16.1%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+112) edge -10.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Andrew Painter: xFIP 4.44, K% 17.9%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 22.0% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.453, K% 14.7%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 13.6%
  • Brandon Eisert: xFIP 4.13, K% 25.4%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 26.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (3 PA): xwOBA 0.149, K% 33.3%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 50.0%
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 96)
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 1.15
  • Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Andrew Painter: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.357 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -10.6%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +19.8%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +122->+112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -11.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Kyle Bradish: xFIP 4.13, K% 23.4%, BB% 11.1%, xwOBA 0.316, whiff% 24.4% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 27.8%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 23.6%
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.69 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.04
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Kyle Bradish: 89% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -11.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +12.3%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -128->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -12.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: xFIP 3.36, K% 26.9%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.303, whiff% 29.3% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.365, K% 17.1%, BB% 11.4%, whiff% 17.7%
  • Jack Kochanowicz: xFIP 4.72, K% 16.2%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 24.0% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.394, K% 19.4%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 19.3%
  • Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 1.24
  • Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50% (8 starts) | Jack Kochanowicz: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -12.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +21.8%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-138) edge -16.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -138
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Keider Montero: xFIP 4.60, K% 18.1%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.294, whiff% 17.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.233, K% 13.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 11.8%
  • Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.90, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.221, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (10 PA): xwOBA 0.125, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 16.0%
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.90
  • Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Keider Montero: 100% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.322 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge -16.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge +25.2%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge -20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.37, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.2%, xwOBA 0.356, whiff% 27.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (14 PA): xwOBA 0.286, K% 14.3%, BB% 21.4%, whiff% 16.7%
  • Kade Morris: xFIP 4.30, K% 21.6%, BB% 8.4%
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 0.97
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -20.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +28.9%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge -20.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Jack Leiter: xFIP 3.87, K% 25.2%, BB% 9.5%, xwOBA 0.332, whiff% 27.5% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.351, K% 20.9%, BB% 9.3%, whiff% 27.1%
  • Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.13, K% 20.7%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 26.8% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.409, K% 20.9%, BB% 2.3%, whiff% 22.1%
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.52
  • Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
  • NRFI rate: Jack Leiter: 70% (10 starts) | Tanner Bibee: 60% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 36-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.340 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -20.1%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +29.0%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -21.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.27, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 18.7% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.359, K% 26.8%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 19.7%
  • Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 16.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.379, whiff% 15.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.316, K% 20.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 11.6%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
  • Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 56% (9 starts) | Zack Littell: 71% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.363 vs SP's top pitch) | Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -21.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +30.0%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 1.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 1.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 30.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.27, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 18.7% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.359, K% 26.8%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 19.7%
  • Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 16.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.379, whiff% 15.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.316, K% 20.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 11.6%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
  • Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 56% (9 starts) | Zack Littell: 71% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.363 vs SP's top pitch) | Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -21.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +30.0%
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 30% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 29.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Jack Leiter: xFIP 3.87, K% 25.2%, BB% 9.5%, xwOBA 0.332, whiff% 27.5% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.351, K% 20.9%, BB% 9.3%, whiff% 27.1%
  • Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.13, K% 20.7%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 26.8% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.409, K% 20.9%, BB% 2.3%, whiff% 22.1%
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.52
  • Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
  • NRFI rate: Jack Leiter: 70% (10 starts) | Tanner Bibee: 60% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 36-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.340 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -20.1%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +29.0%
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge 28.9% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.37, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.2%, xwOBA 0.356, whiff% 27.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (14 PA): xwOBA 0.286, K% 14.3%, BB% 21.4%, whiff% 16.7%
  • Kade Morris: xFIP 4.30, K% 21.6%, BB% 8.4%
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 0.97
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -20.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +28.9%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -136->-128)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+108) edge 25.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +108
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Keider Montero: xFIP 4.60, K% 18.1%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.294, whiff% 17.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.233, K% 13.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 11.8%
  • Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.90, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.221, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (10 PA): xwOBA 0.125, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 16.0%
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.90
  • Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Keider Montero: 100% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.322 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge -16.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge +25.2%
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 21.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: xFIP 3.36, K% 26.9%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.303, whiff% 29.3% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.365, K% 17.1%, BB% 11.4%, whiff% 17.7%
  • Jack Kochanowicz: xFIP 4.72, K% 16.2%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 24.0% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.394, K% 19.4%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 19.3%
  • Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 1.24
  • Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50% (8 starts) | Jack Kochanowicz: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -12.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +21.8%
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-142) edge 19.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Andrew Painter: xFIP 4.44, K% 17.9%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 22.0% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.453, K% 14.7%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 13.6%
  • Brandon Eisert: xFIP 4.13, K% 25.4%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 26.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (3 PA): xwOBA 0.149, K% 33.3%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 50.0%
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 96)
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 1.15
  • Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Andrew Painter: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.357 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -10.6%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +19.8%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -156->-142)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-148) edge 16.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -148
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Matthew Liberatore: xFIP 4.03, K% 24.8%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 22.5% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.353, K% 28.2%, BB% 5.1%, whiff% 24.3%
  • Nick Lodolo: xFIP 4.52, K% 20.1%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.392, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (21 PA): xwOBA 0.346, K% 28.6%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 22.2%
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 1.00
  • Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Matthew Liberatore: 56% (9 starts) | Nick Lodolo: 60% (5 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.272 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -7.1%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +16.1%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+110) edge 12.3% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Joe Ryan: xFIP 3.51, K% 28.7%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.280, whiff% 25.6% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.318, K% 30.0%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 26.4%
  • Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.34, K% 22.1%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (4 PA): xwOBA 0.130, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 22.2%
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.82 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.83
  • Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Joe Ryan: 80% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.322 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge -3.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +12.3%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 12.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Kyle Bradish: xFIP 4.13, K% 23.4%, BB% 11.1%, xwOBA 0.316, whiff% 24.4% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 27.8%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 23.6%
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.69 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.04
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Kyle Bradish: 89% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -11.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +12.3%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +100->-104)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+112) edge 7.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Ben Brown: xFIP 3.46, K% 26.4%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 28.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (19 PA): xwOBA 0.285, K% 26.3%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 29.0%
  • Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.48, K% 25.8%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.243, K% 28.6%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 31.1%
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.58, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.18, SO/G 0.49
  • Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Ben Brown: 80% (5 starts) | Landen Roupp: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 11-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +1.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +7.2%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Will Warren: xFIP 3.67, K% 23.4%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.290, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.244, K% 37.1%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 23.8%
  • Ranger Suarez: xFIP 3.70, K% 24.6%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.301, whiff% 22.5% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.332, K% 27.8%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 26.5%
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 129 (team avg 104)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Will Warren: 78% (9 starts) | Ranger Suarez: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.229 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +4.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +4.2%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -120->-122)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Lake Bachar: xFIP 4.09, K% 26.0%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.281, whiff% 34.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (3 PA): xwOBA 0.007, K% 66.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 18.2%
  • Shane McClanahan: xFIP 3.90, K% 23.2%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 27.6% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.219, K% 35.3%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 32.4%
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 97)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 0.74
  • Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 89% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.361 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +6.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +2.2%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -108->-106)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 1.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.23, K% 21.6%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.347, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.388, K% 24.1%, BB% 24.1%, whiff% 22.9%
  • Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.58, K% 24.9%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 31.6%, BB% 7.9%, whiff% 16.0%
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 92)
  • New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 93)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.98 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.83
  • Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
  • NRFI rate: Griffin Canning: 50% (6 starts) | Nolan McLean: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 30-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +8.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +1.0%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge -3.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.30, K% 39.0%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.236, whiff% 39.1% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.232, K% 43.2%, BB% 13.5%, whiff% 34.6%
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Coors Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.32)
  • NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 89% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +3.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -3.1%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge -14.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Spencer Strider: xFIP 4.06, K% 27.9%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 35.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (26 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 30.8%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 20.5%
  • Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.23, K% 27.1%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.265, whiff% 28.7% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.195, K% 40.6%, BB% 6.2%, whiff% 40.0%
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.79
  • Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
  • NRFI rate: Spencer Strider: 50% (6 starts) | Braxton Ashcraft: 100% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +23.8%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -14.9%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Run Line — Detroit Tigers +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 11.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: LowVig Detroit Tigers 1.5 -143 | best price
Checks: –!✗✓–✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)
  • [IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
  • +1.5 gate PASS — EV $+14.74/$100
  • ✓ Cover prob 68.7% ≥ 60%
  • ✓ Edge 11.5% ≥ 5%
  • - Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
  • - L5 RL: 4 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
  • ✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
  • No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
  • Home SP: Keider Montero (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Bryce Miller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
  • Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 100)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
  • Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.99
  • Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Bryce Miller small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 96.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0164
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (11 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/61 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/32 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 60/61 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 96.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0167
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.322 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/60 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/33 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 96.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0179
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 55/56 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 96.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0172
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 57/58 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 31/31 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0339
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.432 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 57/59 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2800->-2000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 94.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.260 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/59 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 59/59 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2800->-2000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Andujar Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0328
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (16 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 59/61 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0345
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.358 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/58 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 56/58 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -2000->-2500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0317
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 61/63 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/34 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 61/63 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Danny Jansen Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -650->-475)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1400->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1400->-1000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -3500->-2500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tristan Gray Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.266 (67 PA, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 60/60 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 60/60 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -900->-800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sterlin Thompson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1400->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -3500->-2800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1400->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -650->-600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Vierling Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jhonny Pereda Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2500->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1400->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rikuu Nishida Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christopher Morel Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1000->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -2500->-2800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0345
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.227 (24 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/58 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 56/58 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -3500->-4000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 51/51 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 22/22 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pavin Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1400->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1200->-2000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tommy Troy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1400->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Moisés Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2800->-2500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Allen Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -3500->-2800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Darell Hernaiz Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Meyers Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brent Rooker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -700->-650)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1600->-2000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -5000->-4000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2500->-2000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mickey Gasper Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcelo Mayer Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2500->-2000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1000->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Freeland Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -3500->-4000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sandy León Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.8% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0339
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.319 (20 PA, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/59 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0492
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.77x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/61 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0500
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.115 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/60 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0364
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.186 (19 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/55 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0566
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.270 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/53 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 90.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0536
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (20 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/56 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/22 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 90.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0484
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 25 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 4.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .769
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 25 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/62 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 90.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0545
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 52/55 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2000->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0500
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.229 (28 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 9 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .375
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/60 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/31 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0517
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 55/58 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0508
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.339 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/59 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0656
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.726 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/61 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1400->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-650) diff 88.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0566
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/53 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 21/23 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Chapman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0635
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (15 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 60/63 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 60/63 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.06
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 88.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0635
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/63 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 87.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0625
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.577 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/64 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 60/64 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2000->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0741
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/54 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -2000->-2500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0645
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.328 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 80.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/62 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -1500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0794
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.108 (20 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/63 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/33 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-750) diff 86.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0702
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/57 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0794
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/63 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-800) diff 85.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.6% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0794
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.322 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 58/63 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -3500->-2800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0847
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/59 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0943
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (21 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/53 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-900) diff 83.8% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1000->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.340 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 82.8% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.303 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0820
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/61 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 (-900) diff 82.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0968
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.230 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1200->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0794
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.468 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 59/63 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0820
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/61 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -900->-800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-750) diff 82.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0984
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 23 PA | 4/19 | HR 1 | K% 21.7% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .822
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 23 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/61 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.388 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1400->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 82.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1094
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.193 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/64 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 57/64 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -650->-600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0806
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.641 (27 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/62 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1200->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1148
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/61 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0847
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/59 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 81.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.545 (14 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0938
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/64 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1017
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-900) diff 81.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1017
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/59 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1017
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.368 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 80.9% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0984
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/61 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -4000->-3500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1034
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/58 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.6% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.221 (51 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 33 PA | 9/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .803
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 33 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1148
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.100 (15 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.350 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/61 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -2000->-1600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1017
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.432 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/59 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1250
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.147 (17 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/64 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 57/64 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-600) diff 79.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1186
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.098 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -550->-600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1129
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/62 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1200->-1000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.176 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 20 PA | 6/20 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .650
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1000->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1186
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.443 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1053
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.629 (26 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/57 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.6% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.524 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/60 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/63 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1071
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/56 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -475->-750)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-650) diff 76.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1148
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.807 (11 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/61 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1207
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1333
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.318 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.518 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-650) diff 74.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1154
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.285 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/52 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -800->-650)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1311
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (11 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .879
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/61 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1406
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.322 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/64 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 55/64 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -800->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1290
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.568 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .583
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 74.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1406
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.428 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 32 PA | 7/31 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | OPS .573
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 32 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/64 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 55/64 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1148
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.691 (23 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/61 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wenceel Perez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 73.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1475
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .615
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 73.9% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1475
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Joe Ryan: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .615
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.8% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1562
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.84x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/64 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 73.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.388 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 73.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1385
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Jack Leiter: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 57/65 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-650) diff 73.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1148
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/61 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -700->-650)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1400
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.840 (12 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/50 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1250
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.265 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 50/56 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 72.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1290
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.437 (60 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/62 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -3500->-4000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-900) diff 72.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1406
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/64 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/33 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1207
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.892 (11 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1475
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/61 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1746
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (15 PA, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/63 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 28/36 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mark Vientos Under 0.5 (-900) diff 69.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1296
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.674 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 80.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 48/54 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1552
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 49/58 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-900) diff 69.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1525
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/59 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1373
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.466 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/51 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1000->-1200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 68.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1800
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.245 (15 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 41/50 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/26 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.6% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1333
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.559 (34 PA, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -750->-800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1837
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.112 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/49 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/25 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-650) diff 68.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.417 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -900->-650)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.1% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1379
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -900->-1000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1525
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.526 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/59 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1754
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Will Warren: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.064
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/57 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1754
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/57 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1200->-1000)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1833
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.248 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/60 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1000->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1833
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/60 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1818
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.319 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/55 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 66.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1818
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.319 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/55 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 66.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1333
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.27x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.577 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-900) diff 65.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -800->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-650) diff 65.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1500
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Scott II Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 65.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2131
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.198 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-600) diff 65.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2131
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.81x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.198 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1500
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.300 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 63.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1552
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/58 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-500) diff 63.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1852
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/54 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1875
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/64 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 62.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.610 (34 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.610 (34 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 61.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1930
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/57 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/27 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -1200->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-390) diff 61.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1613
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.19x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.510 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.270
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/58 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2167
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/60 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.2% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2097
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.120 (17 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/62 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -800->-750)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-400) diff 61.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1774
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (42 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/62 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -370->-400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2031
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.580 (41 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/64 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 59.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2031
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.580 (41 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/64 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -1600->-1400)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 59.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2456
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.863 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
  • BVP vs Bryce Miller: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -900->-800)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 58.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 3:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2063
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -800->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2258
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/62 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -550->-500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-900) diff 57.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2333
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/60 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/31 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 46/60 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -700->-900)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1935
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/62 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-475) diff 57.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2333
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Lake Bachar contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Lake Bachar: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 47/60 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/30 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2031
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.369 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 53/64 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2222
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 24/33 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-550) diff 55.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2222
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.467 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-500) diff 55.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 9:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2759
  • Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.236 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 90, HR vulnerability 10 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/58 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 23/32 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -475->-500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2656
  • Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 47/64 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 21/33 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter HR: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -550->-600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 54.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1864
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.529 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/59 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-475) diff 54.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1864
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.22x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.529 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 18, HR vulnerability 82 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Zack Littell: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/59 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-475) diff 53.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2586
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.400 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Strider: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 46/58 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 19/26 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 52.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2063
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.627 (63 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-700) diff 50.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2679
  • Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.463 (10 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ben Brown contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Ben Brown: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/56 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/21 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 29/35 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 50.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2419
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.264 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/62 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -475->-450)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-550) diff 50.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2500
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/64 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 49/64 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-600) diff 48.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2419
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/62 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -650->-600)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 41.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3103
  • Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.339 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 40/58 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/26 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2414
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Kochanowicz contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Jack Kochanowicz: 9 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 44.4% | OPS 2.178
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/58 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-700) diff 38.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2656
  • Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.661 (83 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/64 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/32 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-500) diff 38.7% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2807
  • Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.391 (44 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Tatsuya Imai: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -475->-500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 37.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2500
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.25x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.540 (14 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/60 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/33 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 18/27 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2826
  • Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.347 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.627 (27 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Griffin Canning: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/46 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 15/22 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 19/24 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -550->-500)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.4% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 4:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3281
  • Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/64 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/33 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 22/31 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 45/64 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3273
  • Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.491 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/55 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/28 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter HR: 20/27 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -475->-450)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-350) diff 19.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 4:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3833
  • Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.613 (27 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Eisert contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Eisert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/60 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/31 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter HR: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -370->-350)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.400/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.400/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Ben Brown Over 5.5 (+122) diff 52.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✓!✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 52.2% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.87K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.80)
  • Ben Brown: K/9 9.3, proj 8.4K over 7.4 IP (season 10.2 IP/GS, recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ben Brown: 21 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .549
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.0%, L7 20.3%, season 20.9%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 33.3%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/17 (24%) | Season 4/17 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.12
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed — retained at B — would have capped at B
⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration — derisk posture — would have capped at C
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 (-135) diff 26.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓!––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 26.0% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.17K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Matthew Liberatore: K/9 9.6, proj 5.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 43.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 47 PA | K% 31.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .777
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 47 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 21.1%, L7 27.6%, season 24.6%, BVP 31.9%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.75
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
  • K% trend: support +9.6 ppts (recent 30.9% vs season 21.3%)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -126->-135)
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 134 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash — retained at B — would have capped at B
⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration — derisk posture — would have capped at C
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 (-156) diff 19.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 7:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -156 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.5% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.88K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Tanner Bibee: K/9 7.7, proj 5.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Cutter (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .195 | OPS .657
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 45 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.9%, L7 22.6%, season 23.0%, active roster 21.0%/6 hitters, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.62
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -160->-156)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 4.5 (-139) diff 8.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -139 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.37K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.20)
  • Landen Roupp: K/9 10.2, proj 4.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 22.9% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 42 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .375 | OPS .980
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 42 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.4%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters, BVP 14.3%/42 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -144->-139)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 5.5 (-147) diff 7.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.41K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Nolan McLean: K/9 9.7, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 23.5% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 23.7%, L7 23.8%, season 23.5% (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.42
  • Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: headwind -6.8 ppts (recent 21.1% vs season 27.9%)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Joe Ryan Under 6.5 (-153) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -153 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.27K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 3/5 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.60)
  • Joe Ryan: K/9 10.4, proj 6.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 141 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .229 | OPS .666
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 141 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/8 hitters, BVP 19.1%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.08
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5
  • K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 31.2% vs season 28.0%)
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 5.5->6.5, odds +116->-153)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Nick Lodolo Over 4.5 (-141) diff 3.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 2:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -141 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.15K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.8, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.392 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .294 | OPS .745
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 18 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 16.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.40
  • Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -147->-141)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers7:36 PMTotalOver 8.0-10849.7%65.6%+15.9%$+26.259Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (1 play(s))
C Over 8.0 — Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (Total)   +15.9%
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [WEATHER] Precip chance 41% -- delay/postponement risk
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 8.0
  • Home SP: Jack Leiter (RHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.98
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Weather: Precip chance 41% -- delay/postponement risk
  • Stats within normal range
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -112->-108)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)9:10 PMF5 TotalUnder 5.5-11450.0%65.1%+15.1%$+22.232Bet on DK
CChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)4:06 PMF5 TotalUnder 5.5-11550.2%61.5%+11.3%$+14.962Bet on DK
CCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5)2:16 PMF5 TotalUnder 5.5-14655.7%64.8%+9.1%$+9.213Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (3 play(s))
C Under 5.5 — Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total)   +15.1%
  • [IL] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
  • Home SP TBD
  • Jacob Misiorowski xFIP 2.30
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Away SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
C Under 5.5 — Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 Total)   +11.3%
  • [OUT] Jommy Hernandez (Chicago White Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Kyle Backhus (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
  • Andrew Painter xFIP 4.44
  • Brandon Eisert xFIP 4.13
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 96)
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 102)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)
  • Away SP: Brandon Eisert (LHP)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -118->-115)
C Under 5.5 — Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5) (F5 Total)   +9.1%
  • [OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
  • [OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Busch Stadium (PITCHER)
  • Matthew Liberatore xFIP 4.03
  • Nick Lodolo xFIP 4.52
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 98)
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
  • F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
  • Away SP: Nick Lodolo (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%
GameTime (ET)Away SPHome SPSignal ScoreSignalV2 Result
Athletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PMKade MorrisTatsuya Imai
7.7/10
YRFI MODELC ALT / DERISKBet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PMZack LittellEduardo Rodriguez
8.1/10
YRFI MODELC ALT / DERISKBet on DK

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

PLAY YRFI Athletics @ Houston Astros — Score 7.7/10   C ALT / DERISK
  • Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.37, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.2%, xwOBA 0.356, whiff% 27.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (14 PA): xwOBA 0.286, K% 14.3%, BB% 21.4%, whiff% 16.7%
  • Kade Morris: xFIP 4.30, K% 21.6%, BB% 8.4%
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 0.97
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -20.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +28.9%
PLAY YRFI Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Score 8.1/10   C ALT / DERISK
  • Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.27, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 18.7% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.359, K% 26.8%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 19.7%
  • Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 16.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.379, whiff% 15.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.316, K% 20.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 11.6%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
  • Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 56% (9 starts) | Zack Littell: 71% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.363 vs SP's top pitch) | Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -21.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +30.0%
▼ Why no model signal? (13 games below threshold)
GameTime (ET)SPsNRFI / MinYRFI / MinEdgeWhy not
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4:11 PMSpencer Strider / Braxton Ashcraft7.0 / 7.73.0 / 7.7+23.8%Score 7.0 < 7.7 threshold
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (26 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres10:11 PMGriffin Canning / Nolan McLean5.4 / 7.74.6 / 7.7+8.0%Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 8.0% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins4:11 PMLake Bachar / Shane McClanahan5.3 / 7.74.7 / 7.7+6.7%Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 6.7% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (3 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PMBen Brown / Landen Roupp5.3 / 7.74.7 / 7.7+1.9%Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.9% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (19 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:36 PMWill Warren / Ranger Suarez4.9 / 7.75.1 / 7.7+4.9%Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 4.9% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PMJoe Ryan / Luinder Avila4.8 / 7.75.2 / 7.7-3.2%Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.2% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (4 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies9:10 PMTBD / Jacob Misiorowski ⚠ Home SP4.7 / 7.74.6 / 7.7+3.9%Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 3.9% < 8% required
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays3:08 PMTBD / Kyle Bradish ⚠ Home SP3.8 / 7.75.5 / 7.7-11.3%Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -11.3% < 8% required
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PMKeider Montero / Bryce Miller3.6 / 7.76.4 / 7.7-16.2%Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.2% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | Away SP 1st-inn data partial (10 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2:16 PMMatthew Liberatore / Nick Lodolo3.4 / 7.76.6 / 7.7-7.1%Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -7.1% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (21 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PMYoshinobu Yamamoto / Jack Kochanowicz3.3 / 7.76.7 / 7.7-12.7%Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.7% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PMAndrew Painter / Brandon Eisert3.2 / 7.76.8 / 7.7-10.6%Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.6% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (3 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers7:36 PMJack Leiter / Tanner Bibee3.1 / 7.76.9 / 7.7-20.1%Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -20.1% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context
  • HR props parsed: 264 batter line(s)
  • Market discovery: batter_home_runs=264
  • Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
  • Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
  • Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
  • HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

TierPlayerTeamGameTime (ET)SpotPitcherBookOddsFirst HRHR ChanceMarket ImpliedEdgeChance ScoreFreshness
Best HR ChanceShea LangeliersAthleticsAthletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PM-Tatsuya Imai (R)theScore Bet+325-39.2%22.0%+17.2%99-
Best HR ChanceKetel MarteArizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PM-Zack Littell (R)theScore Bet+300-37.9%23.2%+14.6%99-
Best HR ChanceCorbin CarrollArizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PM-Zack Littell (R)theScore Bet+350-37.4%20.8%+16.6%99-
Best HR ChanceJuan SotoNew York MetsNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres10:11 PM-Griffin Canning (R)theScore Bet+325-36.7%22.0%+14.7%99-
Best HR ChanceByron BuxtonMinnesota TwinsKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PM-Luinder Avila (R)theScore Bet+275-36.6%24.6%+12.0%99-
Best HR ChanceNick KurtzAthleticsAthletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PM-Tatsuya Imai (R)theScore Bet+260-36.1%25.8%+10.3%99-
Best HR ChanceJames WoodWashington NationalsWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PM-Eduardo Rodriguez (L)theScore Bet+425-35.4%17.9%+17.6%99-
Best HR ChanceColson MontgomeryChicago White SoxChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PM-Andrew Painter (R)theScore Bet+275-35.3%24.6%+10.7%99-
Best HR ChanceMiguel VargasChicago White SoxChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PM-Andrew Painter (R)theScore Bet+375-35.3%19.7%+15.5%99-
Best HR ChanceMax MuncyLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM-Jack Kochanowicz (R)theScore Bet+275-35.1%24.6%+10.5%99-
Strong HR ChanceJordan WalkerSt. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2:16 PM-Nick Lodolo (L)theScore Bet+375-34.9%19.7%+15.2%99-
Best HR ChanceFreddie FreemanLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM-Jack Kochanowicz (R)theScore Bet+475-34.6%16.4%+18.3%99-
Best HR ChanceTyler SoderstromAthleticsAthletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PM-Tatsuya Imai (R)theScore Bet+475-34.1%16.4%+17.7%99-
Best HR ChanceShohei OhtaniLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM-Jack Kochanowicz (R)theScore Bet+250-33.5%26.4%+7.1%99-
Best HR ChanceYordan AlvarezHouston AstrosAthletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PM-Kade Morris (R)theScore Bet+210-33.1%30.1%+3.0%99-
Best HR ChanceJulio RodriguezSeattle MarinersSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Keider Montero (R)BetOnline+400-32.9%18.9%+14.0%99-
HR Chance WatchlistOneil CruzPittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4:11 PM-Spencer Strider (R)theScore Bet+325-32.9%22.0%+10.9%99-
HR Chance WatchlistBrandon LowePittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4:11 PM-Spencer Strider (R)theScore Bet+300-31.8%23.2%+8.6%99-
Best HR ChanceAndy PagesLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM-Jack Kochanowicz (R)theScore Bet+450-31.5%17.1%+14.4%99-
Best HR ChanceKyle SchwarberPhiladelphia PhilliesChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PM-Brandon Eisert (L)theScore Bet+230-31.3%28.0%+3.3%99-

Game HR Environments

TierGameTime (ET)ScoreP(1+ HR)Fair OddsTop ThreatsEnvironmentRisks
Strong HR EnvironmentCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2:16 PM10090.1%-910Jordan Walker, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Alec BurlesonBusch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%-
Strong HR EnvironmentCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers7:36 PM10089.1%-817Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, Josh Jung, Angel MartinezGlobe Life Field HR factor 1.10 | Precip chance 41% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9%-
Strong HR EnvironmentWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PM10088.4%-759Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, James Wood, CJ AbramsChase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6%-
Strong HR EnvironmentAthletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PM10088.3%-757Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Yordan AlvarezUnknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.7%-
Strong HR EnvironmentNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres10:11 PM10086.8%-654Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Gavin Sheets, Jared YoungPetco Park HR factor 0.85 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3%-
Strong HR EnvironmentChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PM10086.2%-626Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Kyle Schwarber, Justin CrawfordCitizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%-
WatchlistPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4:11 PM10085.9%-611Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Endy Rodriguez, Ryan O'HearnTruist Park HR factor 1.03-
WatchlistLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM10085.9%-607Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Andy PagesDodger Stadium HR factor 0.97-
WatchlistBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:36 PM10084.5%-547Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, Jarren Duran, Paul GoldschmidtYankee Stadium HR factor 1.18-
WatchlistMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies9:10 PM10084.4%-543Tyler Freeman, Jake Bauers, Hunter Goodman, Jackson ChourioCoors Field HR factor 1.20-
WatchlistBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays3:08 PM10084.1%-531Kazuma Okamoto, Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Samuel BasalloRogers Centre HR factor 0.96-
WatchlistTampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins4:11 PM10084.1%-528Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Heriberto HernandezloanDepot park HR factor 0.88-
WatchlistSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM10083.3%-500Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Dillon Dingler, Dominic CanzoneComerica Park HR factor 0.91-
WatchlistKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PM10083.0%-489Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Brooks Lee, Michael MasseyTarget Field HR factor 0.95-
WatchlistSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM9980.3%-409Casey Schmitt, Ian Happ, Willy Adames, Bryce EldridgeWrigley Field HR factor 1.05-
▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)
Best HR Chance Shea Langeliers — Athletics @ Houston Astros (+325) HR chance 39.2% | edge +17.2%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.281, OPS 0.900, ISO 0.263, TB/G 2.23
  • Statcast: barrel 15.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.556
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 13/57 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0400, xFIP 4.68, K% 22.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.356, xERA 5.26, whiff 27.2%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.841, ISO 0.228 (192 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.391, xwOBA 0.309 (44 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance Ketel Marte — Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+300) HR chance 37.9% | edge +14.6%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.186, OPS 0.767, ISO 0.204, TB/G 1.83
  • Statcast: barrel 11.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.8/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.521
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 10/59 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0590, xFIP 5.34, K% 13.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.379, xERA 6.10, whiff 15.4%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.333, K% 50.0% (6 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.038, OPS 0.735, ISO 0.182 (183 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ BvP strikeout risk
Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+350) HR chance 37.4% | edge +16.6%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.150, OPS 0.925, ISO 0.262, TB/G 2.03
  • Statcast: barrel 12.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.6/111.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.478
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 8/60 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0590, xFIP 5.34, K% 13.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.379, xERA 6.10, whiff 15.4%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.300, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.250 (169 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
Best HR Chance Juan Soto — New York Mets @ San Diego Padres (+325) HR chance 36.7% | edge +14.7%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.283, OPS 0.922, ISO 0.263, TB/G 2.04
  • Statcast: barrel 17.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/114.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.616
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/46 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0513, xFIP 4.29, K% 22.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.347, xERA 4.96, whiff 25.1%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.079, OPS 1.022, ISO 0.309 (126 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.627, xwOBA 0.450 (27 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance Byron Buxton — Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (+275) HR chance 36.6% | edge +12.0%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.327, OPS 0.868, ISO 0.292, TB/G 2.25
  • Statcast: barrel 17.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/110.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 16/55 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0178, xFIP 4.62, K% 21.6%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.31, whiff 24.2%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.095, OPS 0.941, ISO 0.370 (179 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.491, xwOBA 0.326 (33 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — Athletics @ Houston Astros (+260) HR chance 36.1% | edge +10.3%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.177, OPS 0.933, ISO 0.213, TB/G 1.76
  • Statcast: barrel 18.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.2/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.501
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 11/62 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0400, xFIP 4.68, K% 22.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.356, xERA 5.26, whiff 27.2%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 1.007, ISO 0.241 (192 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.398, xwOBA 0.339 (42 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance James Wood — Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+425) HR chance 35.4% | edge +17.6%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.266, OPS 0.944, ISO 0.272, TB/G 2.05
  • Statcast: barrel 25.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 96.1/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.615
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/64 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0161, xFIP 4.28, K% 17.6%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.55, whiff 18.7%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.830, ISO 0.219 (98 PA)
  • Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0125
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs
⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Best HR Chance Colson Montgomery — Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (+275) HR chance 35.3% | edge +10.7%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.242, OPS 0.782, ISO 0.244, TB/G 1.73
  • Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.9/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/62 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0394, xFIP 4.56, K% 18.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.340, xERA 4.73, whiff 22.0%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 0.778, ISO 0.241 (184 PA)
  • Park HR factor 1.10
⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

PlayerGameTime (ET)OddsHR ChanceWhy lower
Caleb DurbinBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:36 PM+11000.4%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Steven KwanCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers7:36 PM+12000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Troy JohnstonMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies9:10 PM+8000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal
Luke KeaschallKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PM+9000.6%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (1 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Luis ArraezSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM+12000.7%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (4 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Kevin McGonigleSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM+6000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form
Austin MartinKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PM+12000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Kyle KarrosMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies9:10 PM+7000.9%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal
Jung Hoo LeeSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM+11000.9%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Taylor WardBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays3:08 PM+6000.9%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model &mdash; P(no HR)&ge;20% or P(under 1.5 HR)&ge;52.2% for a model signal
GameTime (ET)Home SPAway SPPark HRP(No HR)P(U 1.5)DK ImpliedEdgeV2 Result
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PMBen BrownLanden Roupp1.0519.7%51.6%——
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins2:10 PMJoe RyanLuinder Avila0.9517.0%47.1%——
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PMKeider MonteroBryce Miller0.9116.7%46.6%——
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins4:11 PMLake BacharShane McClanahan0.8815.9%45.2%——
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays3:08 PMNoneKyle Bradish0.9615.9%45.1%——
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies9:10 PMNoneJacob Misiorowski1.2015.6%44.5%——
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:36 PMWill WarrenRanger Suarez1.1815.5%44.3%——
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PMYoshinobu YamamotoJack Kochanowicz0.9714.2%41.8%——
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4:11 PMSpencer StriderBraxton Ashcraft1.0314.1%41.6%——
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies4:06 PMAndrew PainterBrandon Eisert1.1013.8%41.1%——
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres10:11 PMGriffin CanningNolan McLean0.8513.3%40.0%——
Athletics @ Houston Astros4:11 PMTatsuya ImaiKade Morris1.0011.7%36.7%——
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4:11 PMEduardo RodriguezZack Littell1.0211.6%36.7%——
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers7:36 PMJack LeiterTanner Bibee1.1010.9%35.1%——
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2:16 PMMatthew LiberatoreNick Lodolo0.939.9%32.8%——

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies86.295.689.55Curveball (47% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 39.1%, put-away 33.7%, xwOBA 0.236, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers76.963.497.07Slider (48% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.221, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Spencer StriderAtlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates71.977.871.54Curveball (52% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 35.5%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Lake BacharMiami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays68.976.867.05Slider (48% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 34.5%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Braxton AshcraftPittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves68.867.975.05Curveball (42% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 26.8%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ben BrownChicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants63.262.071.54Curveball (47% whiff, 36% usage)Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Joe RyanMinnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals58.754.467.56Sweeper (33% whiff, 13% usage)Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs58.757.063.55Curveball (39% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu YamamotoLos Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels57.663.956.06Split-Finger (38% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Will WarrenNew York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox57.353.762.55Sweeper (24% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLeanNew York Mets vs San Diego Padres56.856.462.06Curveball (41% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon EisertChicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies55.652.655.54Changeup (37% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahanTampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins55.059.957.54Changeup (34% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ranger SuarezBoston Red Sox vs New York Yankees52.150.357.06Curveball (46% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle BradishBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays51.353.549.54Curveball (43% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jack LeiterTexas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians50.561.441.56Slider (36% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luinder AvilaKansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins48.249.944.55Slider (36% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Keider MonteroDetroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners48.037.260.55Slider (26% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner BibeeCleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers47.455.040.56Cutter (38% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Griffin CanningSan Diego Padres vs New York Mets45.458.134.07Slider (35% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 24.2%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Andrew PainterPhiladelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox42.043.037.56Split-Finger (37% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya ImaiHouston Astros vs Athletics40.952.429.55Slider (35% whiff, 44% usage)Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack KochanowiczLos Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers39.950.030.54Slider (38% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Matthew LiberatoreSt. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds38.544.130.07Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Eduardo RodriguezArizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals38.338.940.554-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 41% usage)Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick LodoloCincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals35.148.811.54Curveball (40% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.392, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack LittellWashington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks26.730.518.05Slider (23% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 15.4%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.379, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kade MorrisAthletics vs Houston Astros---0-Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Eduardo RodriguezArizona Diamondbacks vs Washington NationalsL18.1%6.46.06.1107deepfull40.5059.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Kade MorrisAthletics vs Houston AstrosR21.6%-13.17.2121deepmissing50.0050.00season+handrecent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Spencer StriderAtlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh PiratesR27.9%5.45.25.491normalfull71.5028.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.1%
Kyle BradishBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysR23.4%6.25.46.0104deepfull49.5050.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.2%
Ranger SuarezBoston Red Sox vs New York YankeesL24.6%4.65.35.277shortfull57.0043.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.3%
Ben BrownChicago Cubs vs San Francisco GiantsR26.4%5.210.27.487normalfull71.5028.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Brandon EisertChicago White Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesL25.4%1.212.25.420shortfull55.5044.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.2 IP/start
Nick LodoloCincinnati Reds vs St. Louis CardinalsL20.1%5.35.45.589normalfull11.5088.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Tanner BibeeCleveland Guardians vs Texas RangersR20.7%5.85.35.497normalfull40.5059.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Keider MonteroDetroit Tigers vs Seattle MarinersR18.1%5.35.55.589normalfull60.5039.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Tatsuya ImaiHouston Astros vs AthleticsR22.6%5.14.24.786shortfull29.5070.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Luinder AvilaKansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsR22.1%2.813.16.347shortfull44.5055.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.8 IP/start
Jack KochanowiczLos Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles DodgersR16.2%4.45.35.174shortfull30.5069.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Yoshinobu YamamotoLos Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsR26.9%6.26.36.3104deepfull56.0044.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Lake BacharMiami Marlins vs Tampa Bay RaysR26.0%1.531.16.925shortfull67.0033.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%, low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Colorado RockiesR39.0%6.65.96.0111deepfull89.5010.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Joe RyanMinnesota Twins vs Kansas City RoyalsR28.7%6.25.46.0104deepfull67.5032.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Nolan McLeanNew York Mets vs San Diego PadresR24.9%5.35.55.589normalfull62.0038.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Will WarrenNew York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxR23.4%5.25.35.387normalfull62.5037.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Andrew PainterPhiladelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxR17.9%4.75.35.279shortfull37.5062.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Braxton AshcraftPittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesR27.1%6.56.26.2109deepfull75.0025.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Griffin CanningSan Diego Padres vs New York MetsR21.6%4.34.54.972shortfull34.0066.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.3 IP/start
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Chicago CubsR25.8%4.85.35.280shortfull63.5036.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersR24.0%5.17.05.986shortfull97.003.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Matthew LiberatoreSt. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati RedsL24.8%5.15.25.286shortfull30.0070.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Shane McClanahanTampa Bay Rays vs Miami MarlinsL23.2%5.15.05.086shortfull57.5042.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jack LeiterTexas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansR25.2%5.55.55.592normalfull41.5058.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.5%
Zack LittellWashington Nationals vs Arizona DiamondbacksR16.1%5.47.46.791normalfull18.0082.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski OverMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies17.521.64.023.2%BALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0111season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handGame Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
Braxton AshcraftBraxton Ashcraft OverPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves17.520.22.715.7%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.2109season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.74 <= 3 min
Nick LodoloNick Lodolo UnderCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals17.515.0-2.514.5%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.589season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.54 <= 3 min
Yoshinobu YamamotoYoshinobu Yamamoto OverLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers18.520.72.211.8%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.3104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min
Tanner BibeeTanner Bibee UnderCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers17.516.4-1.16.2%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.497season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min
Joe RyanJoe Ryan OverKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins17.518.30.84.8%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min
Jack LeiterJack Leiter UnderCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers17.516.9-0.63.3%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.592season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min
Eduardo RodriguezEduardo Rodriguez OverWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks18.519.00.52.7%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.1107season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min
Nolan McLeanNolan McLean UnderNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres17.517.2-0.31.7%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.589season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min
Kyle BradishKyle Bradish UnderBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays17.517.4-0.10.5%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

231 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap
PlayerGameResearch SideComponent ProjHRRBICurrentUncertaintySupportFlags
Noelvi MarteCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.901.550.680.682.76 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan WalkerCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.881.200.780.893.21 / Over0.35season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben RiceBoston Red Sox @ New York YankeesOver 1.52.661.090.810.762.58 / Over0.35season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shea LangeliersAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.641.190.780.672.67 / Over0.35season_games=57,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
James WoodWashington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.631.030.930.672.89 / Over0.35season_games=64,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tyler FreemanMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado RockiesOver 1.52.611.370.620.622.45 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Alec BurlesonCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.601.190.560.852.95 / Over0.35season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ AbramsWashington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.571.080.670.822.82 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick KurtzAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.551.020.720.812.59 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel VargasChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia PhilliesOver 1.52.500.880.850.762.41 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kyle SchwarberChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia PhilliesOver 1.52.450.930.750.782.31 / Over0.35season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Christian WalkerAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.400.920.660.822.23 / Over0.35season_games=64,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Oneil CruzPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.381.040.680.662.27 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt OlsonPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.381.030.680.672.15 / Over0.35season_games=64,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal StewartCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.351.010.630.712.38 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Heriberto HernandezTampa Bay Rays @ Miami MarlinsOver 1.52.341.340.500.502.40 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Casey SchmittSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago CubsOver 1.52.301.130.520.652.21 / Over0.35season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon MarshChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia PhilliesOver 1.52.301.170.590.542.01 / Over0.35season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ WetherholtCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.291.010.770.512.52 / Over0.35season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryce HarperChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia PhilliesOver 1.52.270.920.690.662.10 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Juan SotoNew York Mets @ San Diego PadresOver 1.52.271.090.570.612.65 / Over0.35season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon LowePittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.250.960.650.642.13 / Over0.35season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan O'HearnPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.221.010.580.631.99 / Over0.35season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Daylen LileWashington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.191.040.640.512.19 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter GoodmanMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado RockiesOver 1.52.190.890.750.551.69 / Over0.40season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

SectionWhat it shows
V2 Ranked PlaysGrade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate SweepEvery evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust TiersSettled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion CriteriaThe concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation ImpactRuntime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data ReadinessInput availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's SlateDraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail SectionsMarket detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#CheckWhat it evaluatesPASS condition
1Baby LineLine size, batter opportunity, run-line cushionNo baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2Model EdgeProjection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3Books AgreeDK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other booksDK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4MatchupPark factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splitsPark/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5Role / InjuryConfirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concernsNo injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6Game ScriptCombined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spreadEnvironment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

GradeScoreRecommendationWhen to bet
A10–12, 0 FAILsBEST PLAYCore play — all six checks aligned
B7–9, ≤1 FAILGOOD ADDStrong play with minor caveats
C4–6PASSThin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D2–3 or model edge FAILPASSDo not bet — weak signal
F0–1HARD FADEConsider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

SignalMeaning
⭐ TOP PICKExisting Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best PlayTrusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong WatchWatch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research LeadResearch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused SignalPaused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

StageRecommendation behaviorEvidence needed
TrustedEligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
WatchVisible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
ResearchScored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
PausedShadow-only. No actionable recommendations.A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

PatternWhy it conflicts
Total Over + NRFIHigh-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFILow-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFIPitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total UnderPlayer production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

ElementMeaning
Progress barVisual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / totalRequests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

ColumnMeaning
Away ML / Home MLDraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RLRun line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
TotalOver/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con MLConsensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

ColumnMeaning
GradeV2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
TypeMoneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK OddsDraftKings price for that side
ImpliedDK implied probability after vig removal
ModelWin probability our model calculates independently
EdgeModel% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
BooksNumber of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

StepWhat it calculatesData sourceWeight
1. Pitching edge How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.
home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20
pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch
A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.		 FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck 50%
2. Offense edge How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.
home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100
off_edge = home_bat − away_bat
A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.		 MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 35%
3. Home field Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. Historical MLB average home-field effect +4%
4. Score diff score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)
The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.		 Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x)

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

SourceWeightStats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)65%xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)35%ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

StepCalculation
Base2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factorAverage of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factorAverage of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)
Park adjustmentRaw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage typeMeaning
Active recommendation marketTrusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated marketResearch markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow researchPaused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only sourceContext layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

ComponentPurposeRecommendation impact today
PitcherAssessmentStarter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch QualityFree public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research GateShows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component ResearchBreaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player ContextHome/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI ReviewOptional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

StateImpactHow to read it
READYAvailableThe input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATANon-blockingThe feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIALNon-blockingThe source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLENon-blockingThe odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSINGNon-blocking unless marked otherwiseThe configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITEDNon-blockingThe run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKINGAction neededA core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

StateHow it is used
Pre-lineupActive-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineupExact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverageThe model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

ArtifactUse it for
Main HTML reportDaily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTMLCandidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSONMachine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance reportSettled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSVSingle source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

ColumnMeaning
Away SP / Home SPProbable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI ScoreComposite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

LabelEdge RequiredSuggested Unit Size
FULL≥20%Full unit
HALF≥15%Half unit
QRTR≥15%Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)<15%No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

LabelWhat it means
HIGHBoth pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MEDOne or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOWModel running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

TermDefinition
xFIPExpected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent formLast 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factorVenue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
EdgeModel win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 betsFirst 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK noteThe "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.