MLB Betting Analyzer

Friday, June 05 2026  |  Run at 6:51 AM
Game Bets · NRFI · K Props · Batter Props · Injuries · Weather
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PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

RecordWin%P&L
Overall236W–158L–0P60%+6.45 uLast 14 days • 394 settled
Grade A18W–16L–0P53%-2.91 u
Grade B218W–142L–0P61%+9.37 u

All-time

RecordWin%P&L
Overall740W–640L–7P54%-67.79 uAll-time • 1387 settled
Grade A128W–99L–0P56%-3.63 u
Grade B612W–541L–7P53%-64.16 u
37 pending

Pending Bets

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-05-11Pitcher Hits AllowNathan Eovaldi5.5-143-PENDING-
2026-05-14Batter Total BasesByron Buxton1.5-121-PENDING-
2026-05-17Batter Total BasesShea Langeliers1.5-138-PENDING-
2026-05-20Batter Total BasesKyle Schwarber1.5-131-PENDING-
2026-06-01K PropChase Burns6.5-148-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIBen Rice1.5-130-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIBrandon Lowe1.5-116-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBICJ Abrams1.5-121-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIIan Happ1.5-138-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIJames Wood1.5-145-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIJonathan Aranda1.5-136-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIJordan Walker1.5-150-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIJuan Soto1.5-116-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIJunior Caminero1.5-139-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIMatt Olson1.5-120-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBINathaniel Lowe1.5-120-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBISal Stewart1.5-128-PENDING-
2026-06-05Batter H+R+RBIYandy Diaz1.5-151-PENDING-
2026-06-05F5 TotalOver3.5-146-PENDING-
2026-06-05F5 TotalOver3.5-148-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropBrady Singer3.5-164-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropBrandon Sproat4.5-106-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropBryan Woo5.5-144-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropEdward Cabrera4.5105-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropKyle Leahy4.5-125-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropMerrill Kelly3.5-164-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropMichael Wacha4.5-141-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropRobbie Ray4.5-124-PENDING-
2026-06-05K PropRoki Sasaki5.5-141-PENDING-
2026-06-05Pitcher Earned RunRyan Weathers2.5-154-PENDING-
2026-06-05Pitcher Hits AllowBryan Woo5.5-165-PENDING-
2026-06-05Pitcher Hits AllowDrew Rasmussen5.5-158-PENDING-
2026-06-05Pitcher Hits AllowMartin Perez5.5-123-PENDING-
2026-06-05Pitcher Hits AllowMerrill Kelly6.5-142-PENDING-
2026-06-05Run LineDetroit Tigers+1.5-158-PENDING-
2026-06-05Run LineSan Francisco Giants+1.5-143-PENDING-
2026-06-05Run LineTexas Rangers+1.5-149-PENDING-

Recent Grade A Settled

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-06-04K PropBrayan Bello3.5-168-WIN+0.595Brayan Bello: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBICasey Schmitt1.5-113-WIN+0.885Casey Schmitt: 5.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBILuis Arraez1.5-125-WIN+0.800Luis Arraez: 4.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter WalksBrice Turang0.5-112-LOSS-1.000Brice Turang: 0.0 (line 0.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBIBrooks Lee1.5-132-LOSS-1.000Brooks Lee: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter WalksPedro Ramirez0.5246-LOSS-1.000Pedro Ramírez: 0.0 (line 0.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBINick Kurtz1.5-136-LOSS-1.000Nick Kurtz: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBIIan Happ1.5-140-WIN+0.714Ian Happ: 7.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBIMichael Busch1.5-144-WIN+0.694Michael Busch: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBIAlex Bregman1.5-133-WIN+0.752Alex Bregman: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBINico Hoerner1.5-125-LOSS-1.000Nico Hoerner: 1.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBITyler Soderstrom1.5-120-WIN+0.833Tyler Soderstrom: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBIMichael Conforto1.5-129-LOSS-1.000Michael Conforto: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04Batter H+R+RBIHenry Bolte1.5-143-WIN+0.699Henry Bolte: 4.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WR
K Prop✅ TRUSTED24256%-4.86u4564%+4.81u11359%
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED15961%+15.88u4260%+3.68u1100%
Run Line✅ TRUSTED11953%-4.56u3951%-4.60u3964%
Batter Walks👀 WATCH7364%-0.15u7364%-0.15u20%
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH4070%+9.04u4070%+9.04u0-
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3549%-3.68u1553%-0.45u0-
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3077%+2.37u1669%-0.46u0-
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH2454%-2.83u2454%-2.83u0-
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH7642%-13.08u1100%+0.66u10%
Total🔬 RESEARCH4339%-8.42u1100%+0.86u1100%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u10%-1.00u0-
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED49750%-58.72u9056%-1.08u7049%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/4season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix
ComponentStatusCurrent UsageRecommendation ImpactNext Action
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 242, 14d N 45Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 4 candidate(s); season N 159, 14d N 42Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 3 candidate(s); season N 119, 14d N 39Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessmentLIVEShared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch QualityLIVEFree public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player ContextLIVEHome/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 16Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 15Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 76, 14d N 1Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s)Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.Validate forward results before promotion.
Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 43, 14d N 1Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s); season N 497, 14d N 90No actionable recommendations.🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research⛔ PAUSEDShadow component research; 212 candidate(s) emitted.No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI ReviewAPI ERROROptional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run
✓READYAvailableAI review: API error -- Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, read the docs: https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/error-codes/api-errors.', 'type
✓READYAvailableSavant: 664 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓READYAvailableSavant 1st-inn: 258 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓READYAvailableTeam NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5
✓READYAvailablePitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 168 team×pitch-type combinations
✓READYAvailablePitcher arsenal: 652 pitcher(s), 2809 pitch-type profiles
✓READYAvailableBatter pitch-type profiles: 495 player(s)
✓READYAvailableHandedness: 29 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓READYAvailableTeam recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴LATE DATANon-blockingLineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓READYAvailableBVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 29 SP matchup(s), 1270 career PA
✓READYAvailableBatter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴LATE DATANon-blockingUmpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓READYAvailableRest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics
✓READYAvailableBullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, Athletics
✓READYAvailableBullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓READYAvailableWeather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓READYAvailableLine movement: 2138 market side(s) checked | 1270 opening snapshot(s) created | 691 with movement
✓READYAvailableMarket health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓READYAvailablePlayer context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹPARTIALNon-blockingF5: 15 game(s) fetched | 0 with ML odds | 15 with total odds | 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓READYAvailableHRR research: 212 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓READYAvailableNo-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob
✓READYAvailableHR layers: batter Statcast 535 | batter bats 397 | batter hand splits 166 | pitcher HR splits 70 | batter pitch-type 495 | bullpen HR 31
✓READYAvailableHR model: 264 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction
MatchupTime (ET)Away MLHome MLAway RLHome RLTotalCon ML
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM+139-168+1.5 (-143)-1.5 (+119)O/U 11.0HOMEBet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies6:41 PM+158-193+1.5 (-132)-1.5 (+110)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers6:41 PM-136+113-1.5 (+131)+1.5 (-158)O/U 8.0AWAYBet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PM+123-149+1.5 (-171)-1.5 (+141)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays7:08 PM+129-156+1.5 (-163)-1.5 (+135)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins7:11 PM-136+113-1.5 (+123)+1.5 (-149)O/U 7.5AWAYBet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves7:16 PM+123-149+1.5 (-174)-1.5 (+143)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Athletics @ Houston Astros8:11 PM-110-110-1.5 (+143)+1.5 (-174)O/U 9.0HOMEBet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals8:16 PM+119-143+1.5 (-175)-1.5 (+144)O/U 9.0HOMEBet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers8:16 PM-137+114-1.5 (+128)+1.5 (-155)O/U 7.5AWAYBet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PM-105-115-1.5 (+161)+1.5 (-196)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PM-157+130-1.5 (-103)+1.5 (-117)O/U 11.5AWAYBet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PM+113-136+1.5 (-181)-1.5 (+149)O/U 9.0HOMEBet on DK
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PM+109-132+1.5 (-205)-1.5 (+168)O/U 7.0HOMEBet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM+169-207+1.5 (-127)-1.5 (+105)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

1 Grade A | 6 Grade B | 761 Derisk/Monitor | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffChecks ✓!✗–Rec
A✅ Best PlayRun LineDetroit Tigers +1.5MAR@TIG6:41 PM1.5--158Bovada Direct Detroit Tigers 1.5 -150 | best price+12.5%–✓✓✓–✓BEST PLAY

✓ PASS   ! WARN   ✗ FAIL   – N/A  |  Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

Checks: Baby Line | Model Edge | Books Agree | Matchup | Role/Injury | Game Script - 1 Grade A | 6 Grade B | 761 Derisk/Monitor

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play Run Line — Detroit Tigers +1.5 1.5 (-158) edge 12.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Detroit Tigers 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: –✓✓✓–✓   ► BEST PLAY
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • [IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
  • +1.5 gate PASS — EV $+16.01/$100
  • ✓ Cover prob 71.0% ≥ 60%
  • ✓ Edge 12.5% ≥ 5%
  • - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
  • - L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
  • ✓ Odds -158 within price guard (-160 floor)
  • No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
  • Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
  • Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
  • Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 0.99
  • Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
  • Stats within normal range
▼ Good Adds — Grade B (6 play(s))
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-165) diff 40.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––✓   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 3.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.71 (WHIP 0.94, BB% 5.4%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .171 | OPS .423
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-165) — break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Under 6.5 (-142) diff 29.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 4.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 29.2% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.87 (WHIP 1.27, BB% 9.1%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 102)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .893
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.7%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.22 | Season Avg 6.22
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/9 under 6.5
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martin Perez Under 5.5 (-123) diff 25.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.80 (WHIP 1.17, BB% 8.7%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 39 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .323 | OPS .913
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 26.9%, L7 22.3%, season 23.5%, BVP 20.5%/39 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 12/12 (100%) | Season 12/12 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.08
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 10/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 (-158) diff 16.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.88 (WHIP 1.13, BB% 6.0%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .308 | OPS .723
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-158) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-143) edge 10.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: MyBookie San Francisco Giants 1.5 -138 | best price
Checks: –!✓✓–✓   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)
  • [IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
  • +1.5 gate PASS — EV $+13.75/$100
  • ✓ Cover prob 66.9% ≥ 60%
  • ✓ Edge 10.6% ≥ 5%
  • - Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
  • ✓ L5 RL 3/5
  • ✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
  • No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
  • Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 99)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
  • Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
  • Stats within normal range
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — Texas Rangers +1.5 1.5 (-155) edge 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: LowVig Texas Rangers 1.5 -143 | best price
Checks: –!✓✓–✓   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (27)
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
  • +1.5 gate PASS — EV $+11.27/$100
  • ✓ Cover prob 67.6% ≥ 60%
  • ✓ Edge 9.5% ≥ 5%
  • - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
  • - L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
  • ✓ Odds -155 within price guard (-160 floor)
  • No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
  • Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 0.99
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.37)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -149->-155)
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-155) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
▼ Derisk / Monitor Plays (761 play(s))
A SMALL PLAY ◔ Small Play K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (-145) diff 40.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓✓––   ► SMALL PLAY
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 40.4% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.82K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Michael Wacha: K/9 8.0, proj 6.3K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .653
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 101 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.7%, L7 23.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.42
  • Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -141->-145)
  • A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145 — A would have capped at B
⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.82K, diff 40.4%, books 100%)
A ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brady Singer Over 3.5 (-157) diff 41.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 41.7% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.6% / under 42.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.46K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.0
  • Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 57 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .676
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 57 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters, BVP 26.3%/57 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.27
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -164->-157)
  • A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash — A would have capped at B
⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-157) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats — monitor/derisk posture — would have capped at D
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brandon Sproat Over 4.5 (-102) diff 28.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.6% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.29K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 9.5
  • Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 42.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.7%, L7 21.7%, season 23.9%, active roster 23.6%/7 hitters (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.73
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -106->-102)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — would have capped at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 (+102) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +104 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.0% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 46.6% / under 53.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.08K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Edward Cabrera: K/9 8.6, proj 5.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (45% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Edward Cabrera: 42 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .250 | OPS .710
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 42 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.9%, L7 20.0%, season 20.9%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 28.6%/42 PA (adj 0.95x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.70
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +105->+102)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-126) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.0% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.10K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Sonny Gray: K/9 8.3, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 117 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .248 | OPS .688
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 117 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.3%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/117 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.10
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: support +6.3 ppts (recent 26.2% vs season 19.9%)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -122->-126)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (+106) diff 17.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.15K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Jesus Luzardo: K/9 9.9, proj 7.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 32.3% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Sweeper (46% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 40.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .160 | OPS .440
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 25 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 26.2%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -108->+106)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 126 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (-111) diff 15.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 15.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.68K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Peter Lambert: K/9 8.1, proj 5.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .125 | OPS .489
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.7%, L7 19.5%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.38 | Season Avg 5.38
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 over 4.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Martin Perez Over 4.5 (+111) diff 14.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.65K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Martin Perez: K/9 8.3, proj 5.1K over 5.7 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 39 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .323 | OPS .913
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 39 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.9%, L7 22.3%, season 23.5%, active roster 22.7%/8 hitters, BVP 20.5%/39 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 25.4% vs season 20.5%)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +104->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (+102) diff 13.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +102 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 46.6% / under 53.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.47K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.2, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS, recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.385 | top pitch: Changeup (56% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 19.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 95 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .605
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 95 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.7%, L7 18.2%, season 20.6%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 24.2%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -114->+102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Christian Scott Over 4.5 (-152) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -152 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.54K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -1.00)
  • Christian Scott: K/9 10.2, proj 5.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS, recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.0%, L7 26.0%, season 23.6%, active roster 21.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/7 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 3.5 (-129) diff 11.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -124 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.39K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Kumar Rocker: K/9 7.3, proj 3.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 20.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 14.1%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5% (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min
⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 96 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trey Yesavage Under 6.5 (-155) diff 9.8% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.64K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.20)
  • Trey Yesavage: K/9 9.3, proj 5.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.252 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .154 | OPS .604
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.6%, L7 18.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.57 | Season Avg 5.57
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/7 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 5.5->6.5, odds +125->-155)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brandon Young Under 4.5 (-168) diff 9.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 2/5 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.40)
  • Brandon Young: K/9 7.8, proj 4.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .775
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 49 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.12 | Season Avg 4.12
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 under 4.5
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 3.5->4.5, odds -101->-168)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 40% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 6.5 (+101) diff 8.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.56K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.3, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Sweeper (46% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.353
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 17 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.0%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.82
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->+101)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Anthony Kay Over 4.5 (+120) diff 8.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.39K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Anthony Kay: K/9 7.2, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 12.7% | xwOBA 0.368 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .154 | OPS .712
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 25.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 22.5%/8 hitters, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +115->+120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (+125) diff 7.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.40K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Zebby Matthews: K/9 8.9, proj 5.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.8 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 40.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .342 | OPS .901
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 41 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.4%, L7 21.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.1%/8 hitters, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -101->+125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-102) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.22K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Foster Griffin: K/9 9.4, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 13.2%, L7 19.5%, season 20.3% (adj 0.85x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.42
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 27.4% vs season 23.2%)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -110->-102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 126 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Mitch Keller Under 4.5 (-104) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!!––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.20K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Mitch Keller: K/9 6.9, proj 4.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Mitch Keller: 122 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .288 | OPS .875
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 122 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.6%, L7 16.0%, season 20.5%, active roster 19.7%/6 hitters, BVP 22.9%/122 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.25
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -111->-104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 (-107) diff 3.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -102 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.18K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.1, proj 4.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .308 | OPS .723
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 56 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->-107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 (+118) diff 3.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.17K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.33)
  • Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.0, proj 4.7K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 13.3% | xwOBA 0.407 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .893
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 28 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.7%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/9 over 4.5
  • Line movement: against this side (line 3.5->4.5, odds -164->+118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 (+118) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +128 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.16K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Framber Valdez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 180 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .248 | OPS .727
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 180 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.7%, L7 20.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.8%/180 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +121->+118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Parker Messick Over 6.5 (+111) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.11K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.75)
  • Parker Messick: K/9 9.7, proj 6.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.1%, L7 22.8%, season 23.0%, active roster 20.9%/6 hitters (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.17
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +110->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael King Over 5.5 (-110) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.00K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Michael King: K/9 8.6, proj 5.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 62 PA | K% 21.0% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .283 | OPS .821
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 62 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.9%, active roster 20.2%/6 hitters, BVP 21.0%/62 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.42
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-109) diff 14.8% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 14.908000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.8% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 80%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 89
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .775
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.6%, L7 7.4%, season 7.7%, BVP 4.1%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.12 | Season Avg 16.12
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/8 under 17.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -107->-109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 18.5 (-135) diff 10.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 16.521 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.28 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
  • BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 180 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .248 | OPS .727
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.7%, L7 20.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.8%/180 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.0%, L7 6.3%, season 9.3%, BVP 11.1%/180 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.92
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 17.5->18.5, odds +119->-135)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Over 17.5 (-130) diff 10.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 19.287 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.2% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.353
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.0%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 8.9%, L7 6.6%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.88x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.45
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -138->-130)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.79 <= 3 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.79 <= 3 min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Under 17.5 (-135) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 16.772 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.96 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
  • Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 13.2%, L7 19.5%, season 20.3% (adj 0.85x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.2%, L7 6.6%, season 8.1% (adj 0.95x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.7%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 16.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 16.5->17.5, odds -124->-135)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly Under 18.5 (-172) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -172 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 17.946 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.84 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.3 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 114
  • BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .893
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.7%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 9.4%, L7 7.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 0.0%/28 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.78 | Season Avg 17.78
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/9 under 18.5
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -169->-172)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-151) diff 2.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -151 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 17.993000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
  • BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .171 | OPS .423
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.7%, L7 9.3%, season 9.9%, BVP 2.8%/36 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 18.5->17.5, odds +125->-151)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 17.5 (-137) diff 2.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -137 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 17.937 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .160 | OPS .440
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 26.2%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 13.6%, L7 7.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 0.0%/25 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 16.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -140->-137)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (+100) diff 2.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 17.066 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 94
  • BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .308 | OPS .723
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.8%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.4%/56 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.09
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -115->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (-116) diff 0.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 17.382 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.04 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.3 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 91) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 92
  • BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 62 PA | K% 21.0% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .283 | OPS .821
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.9%, BVP 21.0%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.5%, L7 6.6%, season 7.7%, BVP 12.9%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 5.5 (-111) diff 30.9% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -111 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.78 (WHIP 1.15, BB% 8.6%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .653
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.7%, L7 23.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.83
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Peter Lambert Under 5.5 (-122) diff 25.4% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.81 (WHIP 1.23, BB% 9.9%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .125 | OPS .489
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.7%, L7 19.5%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.25 | Season Avg 4.25
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-149) diff 23.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.85 (WHIP 1.16, BB% 7.3%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .342 | OPS .901
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.4%, L7 21.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/4 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-111) diff 14.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.87 (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.7%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 13.2%, L7 19.5%, season 20.3% (adj 0.85x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Sproat Under 5.5 (-108) diff 10.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.00 (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.5%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • SP stats not found -- used league averages
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.7%, L7 21.7%, season 23.9% (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 (-159) diff 9.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.04 (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.0%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .160 | OPS .440
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 26.2%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Under 5.5 (+101) diff 9.1% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.97 (WHIP 1.34, BB% 8.8%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .775
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.25 | Season Avg 5.25
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/8 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 5.5 (+107) diff 7.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.99 (WHIP 1.36, BB% 8.5%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 99)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 180 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .248 | OPS .727
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.7%, L7 20.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.8%/180 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Mitch Keller Under 5.5 (-110) diff 7.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 0.95 (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.3%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 105)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Mitch Keller: 122 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .288 | OPS .875
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.6%, L7 16.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 22.9%/122 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 (-122) diff 7.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.00 (WHIP 1.35, BB% 8.1%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 95 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .605
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.7%, L7 18.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 24.2%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/6 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-152) diff 3.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.10 (WHIP 1.48, BB% 8.7%)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .724
  • Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.4%, L7 27.1%, season 24.7%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.82
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Under 5.5 (+103) Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
  • Basis: H/IP 1.12 (WHIP 1.49, BB% 8.5%)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • SP stats not found -- used league averages
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 57 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .676
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.3%/57 PA (adj 1.01x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Over 1.5 (-170) diff 33.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.83 (xFIP 4.04, ERA 3.44)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 91)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 62 PA | K% 21.0% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .283 | OPS .821
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.9%, BVP 21.0%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Trey Yesavage Under 2.5 (-157) diff 28.0% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.32 (xFIP 4.18, ERA 3.09)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .154 | OPS .604
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.6%, L7 18.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.29 | Season Avg 1.29
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-180) diff 26.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -180 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.40 (xFIP 3.47, ERA 3.80)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .308 | OPS .723
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.91x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-154) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.47 (xFIP 3.30, ERA 3.78)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.353
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.0%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-147) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -147 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.35 (xFIP 4.84, ERA 3.96)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 102)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .893
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.7%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 over 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-127) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -127 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.39 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.61)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
  • SP stats not found -- used league averages
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 57 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .676
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.3%/57 PA (adj 1.01x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.18
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-160) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -160 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 5.08 (xFIP 4.22, ERA 4.89)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 95 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .605
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.7%, L7 18.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 24.2%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 under 3.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-171) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.98 (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.45)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 90)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.0%, L7 26.0%, season 23.6% (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.43 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-174) diff 13.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.14 (xFIP 3.07, ERA 3.88)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .160 | OPS .440
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 26.2%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.67
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Over 1.5 (-169) diff 13.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.21 (xFIP 3.81, ERA 2.95)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 97)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .171 | OPS .423
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-142) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.70 (xFIP 3.93, ERA 2.99)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 106)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 117 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .248 | OPS .688
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.3%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/117 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Martin Perez Under 2.5 (-147) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.94 (xFIP 4.07, ERA 3.45)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 39 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .323 | OPS .913
  • Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 26.9%, L7 22.3%, season 23.5%, BVP 20.5%/39 PA (adj 1.04x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Under 2.5 (-127) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.88 (xFIP 4.06, ERA 4.49)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .342 | OPS .901
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.4%, L7 21.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 under 2.5
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Under 2.5 (-117) diff 12.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 3.90 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.36)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .653
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.7%, L7 23.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (+105) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.13 (xFIP 4.28, ERA 3.97)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .125 | OPS .489
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.7%, L7 19.5%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.38 | Season Avg 2.38
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-127) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.18 (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.28)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 14.1%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5% (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-175) diff 6.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 2.83 (xFIP 3.37, ERA 2.33)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 96)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.1%, L7 22.8%, season 23.0% (adj 1.01x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.42
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Over 2.5 (+112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.67 (xFIP 4.28, ERA 4.99)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 99)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 180 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .248 | OPS .727
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.7%, L7 20.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.8%/180 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (+105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.33 (xFIP 4.60, ERA 3.52)
  • DK books agree: NO (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .775
  • Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Keller Over 2.5 (-119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.58 (xFIP 4.07, ERA 5.21)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 105)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Mitch Keller: 122 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .288 | OPS .875
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.6%, L7 16.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 22.9%/122 PA (adj 0.93x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.75
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Sproat Over 2.5 (-116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.76 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.86)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
  • SP stats not found -- used league averages
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.7%, L7 21.7%, season 23.9% (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.09
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Under 2.5 (-128) Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.63 (xFIP 4.76, ERA 3.13)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 94)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .154 | OPS .712
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.7%, L7 25.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-139) Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.60 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.78)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .724
  • Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.4%, L7 27.1%, season 24.7%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-124) Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
  • Basis: run/9 4.30 (xFIP 3.96, ERA 4.59)
  • DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
  • Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 13.2%, L7 19.5%, season 20.3% (adj 0.85x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-259) diff 48.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact
Checks: ✓!!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.68 (AVG 0.204)
  • Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.290 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 7/31 (23%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 42/50 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/29 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Hits: 19/21 under 1.5 (90%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Hits: 42/50 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.68
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +176->-259)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-249) diff 43.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.74 (AVG 0.223)
  • Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/33 (24%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.74
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/33 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Hits: 21/24 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 50/57 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.74
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -243->-249)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Blake Dunn Under 1.5 (-265) diff 43.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact
Checks: ✓!!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -258->-265)
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-156) diff 43.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -188->-156)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-190) diff 43.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -202->-190)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-256) diff 43.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +191->-256)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-264) diff 41.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-209) diff 39.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -272->-209)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-262) diff 39.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.226)
  • Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.356 (70 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 29 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/36 (28%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/62 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.90
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/30 under 1.5 (87%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 50/62 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Rafael Devers Under 1.5 (-262) diff 36.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.240)
  • Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.94
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 26/35 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 47/63 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -257->-262)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-242) diff 35.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.228)
  • Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.158 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.93
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 50/61 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.93
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -241->-242)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-230) diff 34.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -230 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.244)
  • Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.93
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/25 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Hits: 23/32 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -257->-230)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-211) diff 33.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.281)
  • Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.378 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -229->-211)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-252) diff 32.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.258)
  • Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/54 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.07
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 21/27 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -256->-252)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-263) diff 31.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.246)
  • Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.411 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 10/22 (46%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.90
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/32 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 26/31 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 51/63 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.90
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +181->-263)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Tyler Freeman Under 1.5 (-181) diff 31.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.271)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 41/60 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.03
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.03
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -185->-181)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-216) diff 31.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.258)
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.211 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 2/19 (10%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/58 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -250->-216)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-247) diff 29.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.286)
  • Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/31 (32%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/60 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 45/60 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -259->-247)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-221) diff 28.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.256)
  • Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 36 PA | 8/31 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .716
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 36 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/44 (25%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/63 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 44/63 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -209->-221)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake Bauers Under 1.5 (-251) diff 28.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.269)
  • Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.304 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 6/30 (20%) | L5 2/15 (13%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/53 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.94
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 16/23 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.94
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +191->-251)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 (-263) diff 26.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.280)
  • Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 21 PA | 5/18 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.103
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/45 (22%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/63 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.03
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/35 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 45/63 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -262->-263)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-200) diff 26.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.253)
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 48/62 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -231->-200)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-218) diff 26.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.259)
  • Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.240 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/60 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.97
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/32 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 49/60 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.97
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -227->-218)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-234) diff 25.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.249)
  • Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.327 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 12/41 (29%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/58 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.97
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -246->-234)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-211) diff 24.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.280)
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 7/32 (22%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 41/57 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 19/23 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -223->-211)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-268) diff 24.1% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.292)
  • Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.378 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/59 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.08
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +200->-268)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-211) diff 24.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -211 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.301)
  • Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.395 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/60 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.08
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Hits: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter Hits: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -237->-211)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Casey Schmitt Under 1.5 (-268) diff 23.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.282)
  • Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/47 (23%) | L5 6/25 (24%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/55 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/21 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +197->-268)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Troy Johnston Under 1.5 (-263) diff 22.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.320)
  • Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/42 (31%) | L5 9/23 (39%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/58 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 0.5->1.5, odds +192->-263)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-252) diff 18.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.336)
  • Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.185 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63 (adj 0.99x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/62 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.32
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 38/62 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.32
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-209) diff 16.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.278)
  • Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 1/19 (5%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/58 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 16/28 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 38/58 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-188) diff 15.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.285)
  • Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.370 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 43.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .438
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 7/37 (19%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 40/56 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.12
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 17/23 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -209->-188)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-195) diff 14.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.325)
  • Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.235 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 13/37 (35%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.27
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter Hits: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -168->-195)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-267) diff 14.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.291)
  • Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-229) diff 8.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.22 (AVG 0.322)
  • Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.350
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 22/38 (58%) | L5 13/20 (65%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/55 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.22
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/22 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -262->-229)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-215) diff 6.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.287)
  • Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.26x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.518
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/59 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-238) diff 4.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.313)
  • Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.540 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/56 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.20
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -246->-238)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Miguel Andujar Under 0.5 (-320) diff 72.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.12
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/50 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter Walks: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Mark Vientos Under 0.5 (-315) diff 68.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -315 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.13
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 48/53 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-300) diff 37.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-321) diff 37.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-325) diff 37.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-327) diff 37.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-415) diff 37.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -415 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-233) diff 30.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.29
  • Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/59 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 20/30 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Juan Soto Over 0.5 (-107) diff 29.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -107 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.53
  • Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/45 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/22 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 9/23 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 19/45 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.53
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-297) diff 28.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact
Checks: ✓!✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.26
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.39x
  • Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .916
  • BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-303) diff 24.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -303 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.31
  • Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-237) diff 16.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.36
  • Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/58 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/30 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 20/28 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-403) diff 14.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.31
  • Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.39x
  • Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
  • BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 29 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/62 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/30 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-214) diff 14.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.37
  • Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 41/59 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 17/29 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-205) diff 8.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -205 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.40
  • Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/60 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/31 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-209) diff 5.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.41
  • Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/56 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/28 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 18/28 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+154) diff 5.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +154 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
  • Basis: BB/G 0.46
  • Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 23/59 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
  • Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/31 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 8/28 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 23/59 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min — would have capped at D
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-145) diff 110.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 3.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 110.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
  • Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.28x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.742 (37 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.46
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.75 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s) — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-150) diff 102.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 3.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 102.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
  • Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.353 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/59 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.58
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 18/27 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.96 | Day Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.58
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), heavy juice -150 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-151) diff 100.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 3.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 100.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
  • Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.540, xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/56 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/27 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.85 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.45
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), heavy juice -151 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-121) diff 87.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
  • Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.376 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/62 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.42
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-130) diff 85.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.67
  • Base projection 2.67 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.401 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/57 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.67
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/25 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.91 | Day Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.67
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-120) diff 83.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
  • Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.372
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/63 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.51
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 23/33 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 39/63 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.51
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-136) diff 78.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
  • Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/59 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.29
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-116) diff 74.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
  • Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/57 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.80 | Day Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.40
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-120) diff 74.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
  • Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/57 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.80 | Day Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.40
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-139) diff 71.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
  • Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/59 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-107) diff 70.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.54
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.365 (32 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/61 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.54
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 18/29 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 36/61 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.54
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-138) diff 68.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
  • Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.435, xSLG 0.728 (30 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/59 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-128) diff 68.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
  • Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.456 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-116) diff 68.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
  • Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.463, xSLG 0.778 (54 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 26/45 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/22 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.86 | Away Batter HRR: 11/23 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36
⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-114) diff 65.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
  • Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.617 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-137) diff 63.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.346 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/62 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 35/62 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-106) diff 61.3% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
  • Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.337 (13 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/48 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.38
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 13/23 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.38
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-147) diff 61.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
  • Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.307 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-147) diff 60.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
  • Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.424, xSLG 0.628 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/63 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.49
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter HRR: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-155) diff 59.1% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.520 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/59 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-158) diff 58.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.358 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.350
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 31/55 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/22 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-128) diff 57.9% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.404 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/61 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.38
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.38
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-134) diff 57.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
  • Base projection 2.48 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.287 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/56 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.48
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.60 | Away Batter HRR: 17/31 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (-113) diff 56.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.465 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 31/59 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.5% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.5% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-114) diff 55.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .733
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/61 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/28 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.89 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-118) diff 55.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
  • Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/63 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 35/63 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+106) diff 53.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
  • Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.289 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/57 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 14/25 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-125) diff 53.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
  • Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.380 (19 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/57 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 17/27 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-118) diff 53.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.327 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .767
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/63 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 35/63 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-134) diff 50.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.417 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 21 PA | 5/18 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.103
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-160) diff 48.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
  • Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.298 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/60 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/26 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-158) diff 48.3% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
  • Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.324 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- DK LOWER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/54 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.35
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.35
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-154) diff 45.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
  • Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.493 (15 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 36 PA | 8/31 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .716
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 36 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-109) diff 44.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.398 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-142) diff 43.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.489 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 21 PA | 8/19 | HR 3 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.371
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 26/49 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 17/25 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+102) diff 43.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.522, xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 32/60 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (-140) diff 42.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.432 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/58 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/27 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-122) diff 42.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.454 (36 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 31/64 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-130) diff 41.6% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
  • Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.603 (19 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/63 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-134) diff 40.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
  • Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.185, xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/62 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.31
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/32 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 20/30 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 42/62 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-159) diff 40.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.260 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 31/58 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-105) diff 40.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
  • Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.387 (22 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/61 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.30
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.30
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-134) diff 39.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.239 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/61 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Under 2.5 (-108) diff 39.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Under 2.5 (-127) diff 39.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-102) diff 38.5% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
  • Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.249 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-162) diff 36.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
  • Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/27 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-106) diff 36.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
  • Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.443 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-117) diff 35.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.518 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-102) diff 34.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
  • Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.486, xSLG 0.811 (20 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/56 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-101) diff 34.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.389 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/62 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (-105) diff 33.1% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.426 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/61 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-116) diff 31.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
  • Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.303 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/63 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/33 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-150) diff 30.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.158, xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-105) diff 30.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
  • Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.445 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/61 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.89
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+105) diff 30.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.273 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/57 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/25 over 1.5 (76%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-115) diff 30.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.324 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.700 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/54 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 14/25 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+108) diff 29.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
  • Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.438, xSLG 0.527 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/63 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+102) diff 29.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.201, xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-111) diff 29.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.208 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 2.5 (-150) diff 28.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.79 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
  • Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.469 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 41/63 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 21/31 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 41/63 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-128) diff 28.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
  • Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.211 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.91
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 (-109) diff 28.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.578 (13 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .670
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 22/54 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+130) diff 27.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
  • Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 26.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
  • Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.526 (27 PA, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 23/58 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.74
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-152) diff 26.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.383 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/63 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-124) diff 26.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.455 (70 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 29 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-124) diff 26.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.184 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/60 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-105) diff 26.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.270 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/52 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/24 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-159) diff 26.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
  • Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.304 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 14 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | OPS .721
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+118) diff 25.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.442 (15 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 27/54 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/24 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+100) diff 24.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
  • Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/60 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/33 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+107) diff 24.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.373 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.270
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/59 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+113) diff 23.6% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.436 (86 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/59 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+112) diff 23.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.429 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+113) diff 23.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (-131) diff 22.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.151, xSLG 0.169 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 11 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 36.4% | OPS .597
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 29/62 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+109) diff 21.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
  • Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.250 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.054
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 27/63 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.73
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-142) diff 21.1% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.205 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/52 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 9/22 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-106) diff 21.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.415 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 30 PA | 6/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .744
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 30 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/61 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.82
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-103) diff 20.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 18/29 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-177) diff 19.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
  • Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.179, xSLG 0.158 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/62 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/28 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 18/34 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 34/62 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Chapman Over 1.5 (-112) diff 19.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.334 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Under 2.5 (-157) diff 19.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.384 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 33/49 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/25 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 16/24 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 33/49 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.86
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-107) diff 18.9% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.222 (41 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Frelick Over 1.5 (-167) diff 18.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 22/57 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 2.5 (+122) diff 17.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 2.93 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.29x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.457 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.518
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/59 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/32 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 13/27 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 28/59 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 16.8% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
  • Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.567 (18 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/62 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/34 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.95
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+117) diff 16.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.385 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Freeman Under 2.5 (-155) diff 15.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 2.12 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/60 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 under 2.5 (64%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 16/29 under 2.5 (55%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 36/60 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+119) diff 15.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Under 2.5 (-157) diff 14.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.14 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
  • Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.371 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/62 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.97
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/31 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 23/31 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 45/62 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.97
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-171) diff 13.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.37
  • Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.463, xSLG 0.502 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/54 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.37
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 20/26 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter HRR: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-141) diff 13.6% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.371 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/58 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/26 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter HRR: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-115) diff 13.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
  • Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.228 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/59 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.81
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-120) diff 12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
  • Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.329 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .350
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/58 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-138) diff 11.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
  • Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.427, xSLG 0.611 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Under 2.5 (-132) diff 11.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.22 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
  • Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/57 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/25 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 37/57 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-118) diff 11.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.244 (10 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/59 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-183) diff 10.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/55 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.35
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 13/26 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.35
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-124) diff 10.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
  • Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.161, xSLG 0.159 (19 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/60 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.98
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 19/30 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.98
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-121) diff 9.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
  • Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.118 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adolis Garcia Under 1.5 (-137) diff 9.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.25
  • Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.249 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 42/61 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter HRR: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-159) diff 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.26 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
  • Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.597 (33 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/63 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.94
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/32 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 20/31 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 43/63 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.94
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+102) diff 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.164 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 24/56 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 2.5 (+107) diff 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 2.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.74 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
  • Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/57 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.44
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/34 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter HRR: 6/23 over 2.5 (26%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 21/57 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 (+110) diff 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
  • Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/56 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.61
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/28 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-123) diff 9.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.204, xSLG 0.219 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/60 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/31 over 1.5 (61%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.70
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+140) diff 8.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
  • Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.567 (70 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .916
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 23/62 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.53
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
  • Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.328 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/58 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.66
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+106) diff 8.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.240 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mark Vientos Over 1.5 (+123) diff 8.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.435 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/53 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.29 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
  • Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.149 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/58 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.31
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 18/28 under 2.5 (64%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 34/58 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Under 1.5 (-135) diff 8.3% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.187, xSLG 0.193 (19 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/57 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.47
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 (-113) diff 8.2% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.283 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/60 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-135) diff 8.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.91x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.413 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/32 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 13/31 under 1.5 (42%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 36/63 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-121) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
  • Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.238 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.50
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+121) diff 8.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
  • Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.208 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/59 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+101) diff 7.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
  • Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.221 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/59 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-151) diff 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Over 1.5 (-104) diff 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Mateo Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+123) diff 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+132) diff 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 2.5 (-105) diff 7.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.69 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
  • Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 43.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .438
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 19/56 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.34
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/33 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 6/23 over 2.5 (26%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 19/56 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.34
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Under 2.5 (-157) diff 6.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.33 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
  • Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.621 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/60 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/28 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 18/32 under 2.5 (56%), avg 2.81 | Day Batter HRR: 39/60 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-121) diff 6.9% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
  • Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.142 (37 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 18 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .611
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 18 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Under 1.5 (-142) diff 6.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-115) diff 6.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.34
  • Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.139, xSLG 0.115 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/59 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.34
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/25 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter HRR: 36/59 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.34
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Andujar Over 1.5 (+105) diff 6.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
  • Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.274 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/50 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.64
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.64
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Under 2.5 (-169) diff 6.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.35 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
  • Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/60 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/32 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 40/60 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-151) diff 6.0% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
  • Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/60 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.40
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter HRR: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.40
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-125) diff 5.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.261 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/60 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 16/30 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 35/60 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Under 2.5 (-159) diff 5.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.36 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
  • Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.471 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/55 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/21 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 20/34 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 33/55 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+111) diff 5.7% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 66.7% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-120) diff 5.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.315 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/60 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 18/29 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.60
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 2.5 (+108) diff 5.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 2.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.63 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
  • Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/53 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 9/23 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 22/53 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-119) diff 5.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
  • Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.268 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/58 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.76
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+106) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Wells Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.8% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-142) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-128) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brent Rooker Over 1.5 (-115) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Meyers Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Matthews Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Vazquez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Darell Hernaiz Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-140) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-119) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (-109) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin Alcantara Over 1.5 (+106) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+112) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-127) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-115) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fernandez Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Barrosa Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Troy Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-175) diff 3.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
  • Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.462 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 35/61 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 35/61 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.54
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-137) diff 2.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
  • Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.331 (29 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 35/57 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.42
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.42
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+119) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.1% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
  • Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.191 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 17/52 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/25 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter HRR: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.35
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.138, xSLG 0.114 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 10 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/58 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.43
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-104) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (-104) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Edgar Quero Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.192 (17 PA, adj 0.92x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 15 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.567
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 15/47 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/23 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 6/24 over 1.5 (25%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.47
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Under 2.5 (-164) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.46 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.339 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Emerson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mitch Garver Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rob Refsnyder Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Robles Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-153) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — David Hamilton Over 1.5 (-117) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Edouard Julien Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sterlin Thompson Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-134) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+107) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Valenzuela Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Blake Dunn Over 1.5 (-133) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (-117) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-117) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-157) diff 1.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.30
  • Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 19/50 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
  • Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 9/21 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter HRR: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.30
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)
⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-118) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -118 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Manzardo Under 1.5 (-130) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Under 1.5 (-156) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Under 1.5 (-162) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–!–   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • INJURY: [IL] Wyatt Langford -- Injured 10-Day
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Wyatt Langford -- Injured 10-Day
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Schneemann Under 1.5 (-173) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-117) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗!––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Under 1.5 (-151) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Under 1.5 (-162) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-173) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+100) diff 71.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.28x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.742 (37 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +105->+100)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 63.8% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.00
  • Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +117->+112)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-106) diff 63.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.24
  • Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.307 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.24
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.63 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->-106)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+107) diff 61.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.07
  • Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.353 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/59 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+103) diff 59.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.32
  • Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/57 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter TB: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +106->+103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 58.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.372
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/63 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter TB: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 53.1% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.35
  • Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.35
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.56 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.35
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+119) diff 52.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.07
  • Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +132->+119)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+135) diff 52.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.07
  • Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +124->+135)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-108) diff 49.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.73
  • Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.29x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.457 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.518
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -104->-108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+116) diff 49.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.09
  • Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.778 (54 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/45 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/22 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter TB: 8/23 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+107) diff 47.9% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +112->+107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+124) diff 46.6% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.90
  • Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/62 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.90
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +121->+124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-108) diff 46.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.07
  • Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.520 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -104->-108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-107) diff 45.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.07
  • Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/55 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-124) diff 44.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.30
  • Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/54 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.30
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.30
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -119->-124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+116) diff 43.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.728 (30 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (+105) diff 43.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.27
  • Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/56 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.27
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter TB: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+124) diff 42.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.77
  • Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.617 (21 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/62 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +127->+124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-122) diff 38.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.91
  • Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.91
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -112->-122)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+113) diff 38.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/61 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.75
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +117->+113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 35.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/53 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +101->-105)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-157) diff 34.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 0.84
  • Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/50 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.84
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/29 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter TB: 16/21 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.84
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -165->-157)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-113) diff 33.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.621 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -106->-113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-201) diff 33.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 0.95
  • Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.115 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/59 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.95
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/25 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/59 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -198->-201)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 33.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 36 PA | 8/31 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .716
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 36 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -110->-107)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+110) diff 32.6% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +127->+110)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-171) diff 31.3% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.21
  • Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.118 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/58 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.21
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -172->-171)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+104) diff 30.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.61
  • Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/62 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.61
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +118->+104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+131) diff 30.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.93
  • Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (32 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/61 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+132) diff 29.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.64
  • Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.64
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-177) diff 28.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.10
  • Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.142 (37 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 18 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .611
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 18 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/60 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.10
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-170) diff 26.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.27
  • Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.261 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/60 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.27
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.27
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -152->-170)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+104) diff 26.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.350
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/55 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/22 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-109) diff 24.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 22/57 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 5/23 over 1.5 (22%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -103->-109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-163) diff 22.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.22
  • Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.219 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/60 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.22
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-116) diff 22.1% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.86
  • Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.149 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.86
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -101->-116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-163) diff 21.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.10
  • Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.205 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/52 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.10
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 15/22 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.10
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -161->-163)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-101) diff 21.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.339 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +103->-101)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+134) diff 20.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.85
  • Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 24/59 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.85
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.52
  • Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.19x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.597 (33 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/63 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.52
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 23/63 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-164) diff 20.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.35
  • Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.315 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/60 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.35
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.35
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -178->-164)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-152) diff 20.2% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.02
  • Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 19/24 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -144->-152)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-193) diff 20.1% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.20
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (10 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.20
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -163->-193)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-103) diff 20.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +101->-103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+137) diff 19.5% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +139->+137)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+111) diff 19.2% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.603 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+145) diff 18.9% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.74
  • Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.74
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +144->+145)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+113) diff 18.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.59
  • Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 21 PA | 8/19 | HR 3 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.371
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 19/49 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.59
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/24 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +124->+113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (-108) diff 17.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.77
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/60 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.77
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -113->-108)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-181) diff 17.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.159 (19 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/60 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 31/60 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.48
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -188->-181)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+130) diff 17.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.73
  • Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .767
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.73
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+126) diff 17.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+128) diff 17.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.69
  • Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .733
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/61 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter TB: 8/33 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +133->+128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-189) diff 17.0% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.25
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.415 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 30 PA | 6/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .744
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 30 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/61 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.25
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-161) diff 16.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.24
  • Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.455 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 29 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 46/62 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.24
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/30 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-176) diff 16.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.31
  • Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.611 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/58 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 20/27 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+143) diff 16.0% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.337 (13 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/48 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 7/23 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+139) diff 15.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.84
  • Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.811 (20 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/56 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.84
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +135->+139)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 15.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/60 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+111) diff 14.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 21 PA | 5/18 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.103
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/35 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +112->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-117) diff 14.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.52
  • Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 43.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .438
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/56 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -108->-117)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-176) diff 14.4% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.45
  • Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 16/28 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.45
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 14.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/62 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +120->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+128) diff 14.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.59
  • Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (36 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/64 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.59
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 25/64 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +123->+128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-183) diff 13.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.21
  • Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.238 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.21
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.21
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -170->-183)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+114) diff 13.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.74
  • Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.169 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 11 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 36.4% | OPS .597
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/62 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.74
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+103) diff 13.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/60 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.60
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +102->+103)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-166) diff 12.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.25
  • Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.184 (16 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/60 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.25
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.25
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -171->-166)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-186) diff 12.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.38
  • Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .350
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/58 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.38
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 15/25 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -189->-186)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+145) diff 11.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.518 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.51
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +146->+145)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-101) diff 10.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.60
  • Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+136) diff 10.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.80
  • Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (22 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/61 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 9.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.526 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 23/58 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.48
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +140->+138)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+134) diff 9.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.79
  • Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.567 (18 PA, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/62 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+110) diff 9.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +127->+110)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dominic Smith Over 1.5 (+151) diff 9.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-192) diff 8.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (41 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/60 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/30 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.47
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -162->-192)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+118) diff 8.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.432 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +115->+118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-105) diff 7.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.49
  • Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 18/49 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.75
  • Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.303 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-195) diff 7.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.55
  • Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/60 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-144) diff 6.9% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -138->-144)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-132) diff 6.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.83
  • Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.469 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -108->-132)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-197) diff 6.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.20
  • Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.700 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/54 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.20
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brent Rooker Over 1.5 (+124) diff 5.6% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.6% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.6% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+147) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-177) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.44
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.208 (31 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-160) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.43
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.283 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -149->-160)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+146) diff 4.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +127->+146)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +135->+128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +130->+134)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Under 1.5 (-174) diff 3.2% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.70
  • Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/63 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 under 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 35/63 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.70
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -167->-174)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-114) diff 3.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 22/62 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.44
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.8% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (+127) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +126->+127)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-169) diff 2.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.44
  • Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (19 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/57 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.44
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 32/57 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -158->-169)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-113) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -116->-113)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-145) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -121->-145)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +113->+111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.6% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +106->+109)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +125->+131)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Blake Dunn Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +116->+117)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+145) diff 2.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.49
  • Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/63 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.49
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-198) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.443 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/60 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.57
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +129->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+144) diff 0.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +143->+144)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-162) diff 0.6% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.51
  • Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.211 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/57 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -182->-162)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 20/61 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/33 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +102->+101)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+102) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.45
  • Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (45 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 14 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | OPS .721
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 20/62 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/32 over 1.5 (22%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 20/62 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.45
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-155) diff 0.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.31
  • Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.260 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 15/28 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+138) diff 0.4% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.63
  • Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.228 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.63
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Alt / Derisk No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110
Checks: ✓–––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Poisson lambda_adj=1.608 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.73)
  • No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.676)
  • Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
  • Michael King pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 +0.8, xwOBA 0.318, HH% 34.7, mix CH/SI, n=1089)
  • Christian Scott pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.5, xwOBA 0.302, HH% 28.6, mix FF/ST, n=559)
  • Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
  • Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
  • San Diego Padres bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.4 IP)
  • New York Mets bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.79, expected pen 4.3 IP)
  • P(no HR) = 20.0% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.2%
  • Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
  • Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
  • Home SP (Michael King): 0.0205 HR/BF Away SP (Christian Scott): 0.0077 HR/BF
  • New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
  • DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)
C ALT / DERISK 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Alt / Derisk No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 0.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110
Checks: ✓–––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Poisson lambda_adj=1.608 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.73)
  • No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.676)
  • Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
  • Michael King pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 +0.8, xwOBA 0.318, HH% 34.7, mix CH/SI, n=1089)
  • Christian Scott pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.5, xwOBA 0.302, HH% 28.6, mix FF/ST, n=559)
  • Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
  • Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
  • San Diego Padres bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.4 IP)
  • New York Mets bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.79, expected pen 4.3 IP)
  • P(no HR) = 20.0% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.2%
  • Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
  • Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
  • Home SP (Michael King): 0.0205 HR/BF Away SP (Christian Scott): 0.0077 HR/BF
  • New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
  • DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+102) edge 24.1% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7 -120 | alt rescue
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
  • Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 0.99
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.37)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -105->+102)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Under 11.0 11.0 (-115) edge 18.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 11 -112 | best price
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • [IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 11.0
  • Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 99)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
  • Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
  • Stats within normal range
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -110->-115)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-125) edge 15.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 7 -125 | exact
Checks: –✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)
  • [OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Jonathan Pintaro (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Daniel Duarte (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Cesar Rivera (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
  • Home SP: Michael King (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
  • New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
  • Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.94
  • Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Christian Scott small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -122->-125)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-117) edge 15.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -110 | best price
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • [INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
  • Home SP: Ryan Gusto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
  • loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 100)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
  • Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.02
  • Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Home SP (Ryan Gusto) stats unavailable — used league avg
  • Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.47)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -111->-117)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-128) edge 18.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | exact
Checks: –✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • [IL] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 5.2 runs vs line 6.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
  • Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.22
  • Away SP TBD
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
  • Away SP: Brandon Sproat (RHP)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (+104) edge 16.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (F5)  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 6 -120 | alt rescue
Checks: –✓✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • [IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Wrigley Field (HITTER)
  • Edward Cabrera xFIP 4.05
  • Robbie Ray xFIP 4.56
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP)
  • Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP)
  • Line movement: against this side (line 6.5->5.5, odds -144->+104)
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-132) edge 11.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (F5)  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | exact
Checks: –✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER)
  • Kumar Rocker xFIP 4.40
  • Parker Messick xFIP 3.37
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
  • F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP)
  • Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -125->-132)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge 16.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Michael King: xFIP 4.04, K% 23.3%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 27.9% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.212, K% 30.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 28.8%
  • Christian Scott: xFIP 4.16, K% 25.6%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.324, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.294, K% 31.2%, BB% 15.6%, whiff% 19.7%
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 93)
  • New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 93)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.75
  • Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
  • NRFI rate: Michael King: 89% (9 starts) | Christian Scott: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.270 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +16.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -7.3%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -146->-128)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+116) edge 14.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +116
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Edward Cabrera: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.332, whiff% 27.0% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.230, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 32.0%
  • Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.56, K% 20.3%, BB% 10.9%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.330, K% 23.1%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 21.8%
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.18, SO/G 0.48
  • Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Edward Cabrera: 100% (8 starts) | Robbie Ray: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.256 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago Cubs struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge +14.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge -5.6%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +106->+116)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge 7.2% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 3.07, K% 25.6%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.3% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.219, K% 32.4%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 25.4%
  • Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.76, K% 18.4%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.368, whiff% 21.2% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.334, K% 22.2%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 22.9%
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 96)
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 1.14
  • Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Jesús Luzardo: 90% (10 starts) | Anthony Kay: 50% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.208 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.225 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +7.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +1.7%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -115->-111)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.2 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-118) edge 2.9% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.18, K% 25.4%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.252, whiff% 29.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.205, K% 27.6%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 35.2%
  • Brandon Young: xFIP 4.60, K% 19.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.325, K% 19.4%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 20.6%
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.69 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.03
  • Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Trey Yesavage: 71% (7 starts) | Brandon Young: 71% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +2.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +6.0%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -128->-118)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 2.3% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.06, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (19 PA): xwOBA 0.354, K% 21.1%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 15.4%
  • Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.0%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 24.3% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.278, K% 32.5%, BB% 5.0%, whiff% 26.3%
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84
  • Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Michael Wacha: 80% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +2.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +6.7%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -115->-120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -5.9% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.30, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.465, K% 21.1%, BB% 7.9%, whiff% 29.5%
  • Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.93, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 21.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.6%, whiff% 26.0%
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 129 (team avg 104)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 62% (8 starts) | Sonny Gray: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.420 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -5.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +14.9%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -128->-120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-136) edge -6.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -136
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Kumar Rocker: xFIP 4.40, K% 18.9%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.9% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.365, K% 19.5%, BB% 14.6%, whiff% 19.7%
  • Parker Messick: xFIP 3.37, K% 26.3%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 26.3% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.229, K% 44.7%, BB% 10.5%, whiff% 30.1%
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.50
  • Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
  • NRFI rate: Kumar Rocker: 25% (8 starts) | Parker Messick: 100% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.340 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -6.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +15.3%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -156->-136)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+134) edge -8.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +134
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.22, K% 19.0%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.385, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (16 PA): xwOBA 0.484, K% 18.8%, BB% 6.2%, whiff% 13.8%
  • Away SP (Brandon Sproat) -- used league avg
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Coors Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.32)
  • NRFI rate: Brandon Sproat: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +134 | implied 42.7% | model edge -8.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -172 | implied 63.2% | model edge +9.4%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds +116->+134)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.0 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -9.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Martín Pérez: xFIP 4.07, K% 22.7%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.328, K% 20.7%, BB% 13.8%, whiff% 22.4%
  • Mitch Keller: xFIP 4.07, K% 18.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.275, K% 24.2%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 29.4%
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
  • Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
  • NRFI rate: Martín Pérez: 71% (7 starts) | Mitch Keller: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 22-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.344 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.280 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -9.6%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +18.6%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -115->-120)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge -10.0% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Home SP (Ryan Gusto) -- used league avg
  • Drew Rasmussen: xFIP 3.47, K% 22.1%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 23.6% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 27.8%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 21.2%
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 98)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.50 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Drew Rasmussen: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.361 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -10.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +10.8%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-118) edge -10.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.19, K% 23.2%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 29.2% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.379, K% 20.6%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.2%
  • Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 107)
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.64, SO/G 1.24
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Roki Sasaki: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -10.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +11.4%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+104) edge -12.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.20, K% 20.0%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.383, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.233, K% 29.4%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 27.6%
  • Away SP (Brady Singer) -- used league avg
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.01
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Kyle Leahy: 100% (9 starts) | Brady Singer: 38% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -12.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +13.7%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -111->+104)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge -12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Merrill Kelly: xFIP 4.84, K% 15.9%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.407, whiff% 22.1% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 10.3%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 18.3%
  • Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.96, K% 24.6%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (47 PA): xwOBA 0.336, K% 27.7%, BB% 6.4%, whiff% 21.1%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.78 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
  • Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Merrill Kelly: 67% (9 starts) | Foster Griffin: 70% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.306 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -12.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +21.7%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -113->+100)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-146) edge -16.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -146
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Framber Valdez: xFIP 4.28, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 15.4%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 18.1%
  • Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.81, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.358, K% 25.6%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 22.4%
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.91
  • Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Framber Valdez: 67% (9 starts) | Bryan Woo: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.179 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge -16.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge +25.1%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -150->-146)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge -17.4% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102
Checks: –✗––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.28, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 14.3%, BB% 5.7%, whiff% 21.7%
  • Jack Perkins: xFIP 4.07, K% 23.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.282, whiff% 30.1%
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 0.99
  • NRFI rate: Peter Lambert: 75% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 32-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.352 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -17.4%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +26.3%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -104->-102)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 26.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.28, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 14.3%, BB% 5.7%, whiff% 21.7%
  • Jack Perkins: xFIP 4.07, K% 23.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.282, whiff% 30.1%
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
  • Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 0.99
  • NRFI rate: Peter Lambert: 75% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 32-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.352 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -17.4%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +26.3%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -122->-125)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 26% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+114) edge 25.1% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +114
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Framber Valdez: xFIP 4.28, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 15.4%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 18.1%
  • Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.81, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.358, K% 25.6%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 22.4%
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.91
  • Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Framber Valdez: 67% (9 starts) | Bryan Woo: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.179 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge -16.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge +25.1%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +118->+114)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge 21.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Merrill Kelly: xFIP 4.84, K% 15.9%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.407, whiff% 22.1% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 10.3%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 18.3%
  • Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.96, K% 24.6%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (47 PA): xwOBA 0.336, K% 27.7%, BB% 6.4%, whiff% 21.1%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
  • Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.78 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
  • Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
  • NRFI rate: Merrill Kelly: 67% (9 starts) | Foster Griffin: 70% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.306 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -12.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +21.7%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -113->-128)
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 18.6% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Martín Pérez: xFIP 4.07, K% 22.7%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.328, K% 20.7%, BB% 13.8%, whiff% 22.4%
  • Mitch Keller: xFIP 4.07, K% 18.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.275, K% 24.2%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 29.4%
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
  • Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
  • NRFI rate: Martín Pérez: 71% (7 starts) | Mitch Keller: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 22-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.344 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.280 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -9.6%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +18.6%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -111->-106)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+106) edge 15.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Kumar Rocker: xFIP 4.40, K% 18.9%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.9% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.365, K% 19.5%, BB% 14.6%, whiff% 19.7%
  • Parker Messick: xFIP 3.37, K% 26.3%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 26.3% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.229, K% 44.7%, BB% 10.5%, whiff% 30.1%
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.50
  • Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
  • NRFI rate: Kumar Rocker: 25% (8 starts) | Parker Messick: 100% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.340 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -6.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +15.3%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +122->+106)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 14.9% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.30, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.465, K% 21.1%, BB% 7.9%, whiff% 29.5%
  • Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.93, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 21.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.6%, whiff% 26.0%
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 129 (team avg 104)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 62% (8 starts) | Sonny Gray: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.420 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -5.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +14.9%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +100->-106)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-132) edge 13.7% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.20, K% 20.0%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.383, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.233, K% 29.4%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 27.6%
  • Away SP (Brady Singer) -- used league avg
  • St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
  • Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.01
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Kyle Leahy: 100% (9 starts) | Brady Singer: 38% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -12.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +13.7%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -115->-132)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 11.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.19, K% 23.2%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 29.2% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.379, K% 20.6%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.2%
  • Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
  • Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 107)
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.64, SO/G 1.24
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
  • NRFI rate: Roki Sasaki: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -10.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +11.4%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 10.8% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Home SP (Ryan Gusto) -- used league avg
  • Drew Rasmussen: xFIP 3.47, K% 22.1%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 23.6% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 27.8%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 21.2%
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 98)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.50 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Drew Rasmussen: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.361 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -10.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +10.8%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-172) edge 9.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -172
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.22, K% 19.0%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.385, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (16 PA): xwOBA 0.484, K% 18.8%, BB% 6.2%, whiff% 13.8%
  • Away SP (Brandon Sproat) -- used league avg
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Coors Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.32)
  • NRFI rate: Brandon Sproat: 88% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +134 | implied 42.7% | model edge -8.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -172 | implied 63.2% | model edge +9.4%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -148->-172)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 6.7% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.06, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (19 PA): xwOBA 0.354, K% 21.1%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 15.4%
  • Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.0%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 24.3% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.278, K% 32.5%, BB% 5.0%, whiff% 26.3%
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
  • Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84
  • Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Michael Wacha: 80% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +2.3%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +6.7%
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -111->-106)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 6.0% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.18, K% 25.4%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.252, whiff% 29.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.205, K% 27.6%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 35.2%
  • Brandon Young: xFIP 4.60, K% 19.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.325, K% 19.4%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 20.6%
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.69 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.03
  • Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Trey Yesavage: 71% (7 starts) | Brandon Young: 71% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +2.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +6.0%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +100->-108)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 1.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 3.07, K% 25.6%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.3% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.219, K% 32.4%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 25.4%
  • Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.76, K% 18.4%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.368, whiff% 21.2% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.334, K% 22.2%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 22.9%
  • Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 96)
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 1.14
  • Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Jesús Luzardo: 90% (10 starts) | Anthony Kay: 50% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.208 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.225 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +7.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +1.7%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -111->-115)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-148) edge -5.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -148
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Edward Cabrera: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.332, whiff% 27.0% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.230, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 32.0%
  • Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.56, K% 20.3%, BB% 10.9%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.330, K% 23.1%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 21.8%
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.18, SO/G 0.48
  • Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
  • NRFI rate: Edward Cabrera: 100% (8 starts) | Robbie Ray: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.256 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago Cubs struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge +14.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge -5.6%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -136->-148)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge -7.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Michael King: xFIP 4.04, K% 23.3%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 27.9% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.212, K% 30.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 28.8%
  • Christian Scott: xFIP 4.16, K% 25.6%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.324, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.294, K% 31.2%, BB% 15.6%, whiff% 19.7%
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 93)
  • New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 93)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.75
  • Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
  • NRFI rate: Michael King: 89% (9 starts) | Christian Scott: 57% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.270 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +16.2%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -7.3%
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds +114->+100)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 96.8% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0169
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.240 (27 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 58/59 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 96.8% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0167
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.219 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/60 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/31 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 96.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0175
  • Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (29 PA, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 56/57 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 96.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0182
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 54/55 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-900) diff 94.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0323
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 66.7% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/62 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/34 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 60/62 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 90 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Helman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–!–   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • INJURY: [IL] Wyatt Langford -- Injured 10-Day
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Wyatt Langford -- Injured 10-Day
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tristan Gray Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Blake Dunn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–!!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • INJURY: [OUT] Lars Nootbaar -- Injured 60-Day
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Lars Nootbaar -- Injured 60-Day
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rob Refsnyder Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Robles Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mitch Garver Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Vierling Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0351
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.193 (19 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/57 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sterlin Thompson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kevin Alcantara Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tommy Troy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jorge Barrosa Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Fernandez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brice Matthews Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brent Rooker Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Darell Hernaiz Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Meyers Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0345
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/58 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 56/58 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Chapman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0323
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/62 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 60/62 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0333
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/60 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 58/60 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Santiago Espinal Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jorge Mateo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0351
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (19 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/57 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.260 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 58/58 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 28/28 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 58/58 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0345
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.432 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 56/58 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 56/58 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 50/50 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 21/21 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0330
  • Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.175 (20 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/59 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 59/59 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0370
  • Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.700 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/54 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0500
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.90x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/60 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 90.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0492
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.462 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/61 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 90.2% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0492
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/61 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/28 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.9% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0508
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (10 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/59 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/30 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.9% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0517
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.343 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/58 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0556
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.502 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 51/54 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.3% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0508
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.115 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/59 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.8% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0545
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.350
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/55 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/22 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 87.7% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0577
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.270 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 49/52 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0526
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 54/57 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-900) diff 87.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0577
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.205 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 49/52 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 20/22 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0741
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/54 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0635
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.429 (11 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/63 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0656
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/61 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0833
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.159 (19 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/60 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0645
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 58/62 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0741
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/54 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.2% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0806
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/62 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-750) diff 83.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0714
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 43.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .438
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/56 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 23/23 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.7% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0806
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.455 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 29 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 58/62 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 83.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0820
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.415 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 30 PA | 6/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .744
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 30 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/61 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.5% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0806
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 57/62 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 83.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0833
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/60 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-700) diff 83.3% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0833
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.283 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/60 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-550) diff 83.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0806
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (45 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 14 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | OPS .721
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/62 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0769
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 48/52 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-750) diff 82.6% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.87x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.261 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.6% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0862
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/58 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 82.4% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.303 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.4% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.527 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.4% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 (-900) diff 82.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0820
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/61 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0847
  • Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.208 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/59 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0877
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/57 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-900) diff 80.7% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0968
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.208 (31 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Andujar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.274 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 45/50 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.2% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1034
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .350
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/58 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 80.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1034
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.611 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.9% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1000
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/60 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1091
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.431 (11 PA, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/55 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0952
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 21 PA | 5/18 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.103
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/63 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1017
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.436 (86 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/59 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1034
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.328 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.4% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1207
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.118 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.1% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0968
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.567 (70 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .916
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.5% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0877
  • Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/57 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-900) diff 78.5% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1064
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.192 (17 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 15 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.567
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 42/47 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/23 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1228
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.9% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1290
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.158 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/62 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.9% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1034
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.238 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/58 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1071
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.164 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/56 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.142 (37 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 18 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .611
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 18 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-400) diff 77.0% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1111
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1176
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/51 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-900) diff 75.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1148
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/61 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-900) diff 75.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1379
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-700) diff 75.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.184 (16 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.1% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1333
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (41 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 74.9% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.469 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/63 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.9% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1356
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.228 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-700) diff 74.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1207
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.114 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 10 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1186
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.373 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.270
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1186
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.518 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wenceel Perez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 73.5% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1500
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.315 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/60 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.5% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1500
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.315 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/60 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1270
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.250 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.054
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mark Vientos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.4% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1321
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.435 (50 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 47/53 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1167
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-900) diff 72.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1228
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/57 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 20/23 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.7% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1311
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .733
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/61 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.6% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1129
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1356
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/59 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.2% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1404
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.211 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.6% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1333
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-600) diff 71.5% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1452
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.169 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 11 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 36.4% | OPS .597
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/62 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 53/62 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.375 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/63 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 70.0% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1500
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1500
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/60 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1406
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (36 PA, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/64 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1186
  • Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.29x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.457 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.518
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.1% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1552
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 49/58 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.1% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 21 PA | 8/19 | HR 3 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.371
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 21 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/49 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 67.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1587
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .767
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/63 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 67.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1311
  • Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/61 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.6% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1525
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.520 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/59 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.4% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1905
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.85x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-390) diff 67.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1639
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/57 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.2% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1667
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.562 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/60 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.4% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1667
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.286 (53 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/60 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-500) diff 66.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.19x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.597 (33 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/63 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1552
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.526 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/58 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.5% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1786
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/56 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-475) diff 64.6% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1633
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 41/49 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.5% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1803
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.3% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1864
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.221 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/59 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 63.9% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1525
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/59 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1552
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.339 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/58 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-900) diff 63.5% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1786
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/56 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 62.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1875
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.337 (13 PA, adj 0.97x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 39/48 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/25 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 20/23 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.7% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1897
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.149 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/58 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 62.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2000
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.443 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
  • BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 49/60 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.6% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2097
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.567 (18 PA, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/62 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.2% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2034
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/59 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-800) diff 59.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2459
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.135 (19 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/61 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 59.0% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1852
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (13 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .670
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/54 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-650) diff 58.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2063
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/63 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-900) diff 56.3% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1864
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/59 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 55.8% Bet on DK
Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays  |  Start: 7:08 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2131
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/61 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.6% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2063
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 28% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Framber Valdez: 36 PA | 8/31 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .716
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 36 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-900) diff 55.3% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1935
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/62 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2459
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.92x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (22 PA, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 48/61 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 23/30 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.9% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1887
  • Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.20x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 43/53 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/30 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 21/23 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-550) diff 53.7% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2295
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.01x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (32 PA, adj 0.98x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/61 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 53.6% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1967
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.4% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2167
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.621 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/60 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Scott II Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 53.4% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2167
  • Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.621 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/60 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 52.8% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2500
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.811 (20 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
  • BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/56 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 51.7% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1964
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.23x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/56 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/27 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-550) diff 50.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2258
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (30 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/62 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 23/32 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 50.7% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2540
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.603 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/63 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/32 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 48/63 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-475) diff 50.2% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2364
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.05x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/55 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/21 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-450) diff 46.0% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2857
  • Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.95x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/56 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-700) diff 45.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2258
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.617 (21 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/62 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/33 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-475) diff 45.1% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2373
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.16x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.728 (30 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/59 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/30 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-600) diff 44.5% Bet on DK
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins  |  Start: 7:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2373
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
  • BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/59 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/30 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-350) diff 42.8% Bet on DK
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies  |  Start: 8:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2632
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 23/32 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-700) diff 41.8% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2632
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/57 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 18/25 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 41.8% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2632
  • Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/57 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 18/25 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 40.8% Bet on DK
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves  |  Start: 7:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2698
  • Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Mitch Keller: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.372
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 21/33 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter HR: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 40.3% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2542
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.17x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.353 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
  • BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/59 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 18/27 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-550) diff 38.5% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2982
  • Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
  • BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/57 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/25 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-550) diff 38.2% Bet on DK
Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2889
  • Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.07x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.778 (54 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/45 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 15/22 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 18/23 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-400) diff 37.2% Bet on DK
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3333
  • Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.94x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Michael Wacha: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/54 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 18/27 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter HR: 20/27 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 34.8% Bet on DK
Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros  |  Start: 8:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price
Checks: –✗✗––!   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3333
  • Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.98x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/63 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/32 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 22/31 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-550) diff 34.8% Bet on DK
Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks  |  Start: 9:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2540
  • Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.28x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.742 (37 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/32 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 47/63 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-320) diff 14.6% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -320 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.3898
  • Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.307 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
  • BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/59 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 18/30 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter HR: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.430/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.430/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-132) diff 22.3% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price
Checks: ✓✓✓!––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.3% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.23K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Bryan Woo: K/9 9.8, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .171 | OPS .423
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 36 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.67
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
  • K% trend: support +10.1 ppts (recent 34.5% vs season 24.4%)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -144->-132)
⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch — retained at B — would have capped at B
⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration — derisk posture — would have capped at C
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 (-141) diff 17.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers  |  Start: 10:11 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -122 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.98K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Roki Sasaki: K/9 8.8, proj 6.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 41.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 27 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .091 | OPS .396
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 27 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 25.3%, L7 19.2%, season 24.7%, BVP 25.9%/27 PA (adj 1.03x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 3/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 (-125) diff 11.5% Bet on DK
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals  |  Start: 8:16 PM
Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.52K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.1, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.383 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 41.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .724
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 45 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.4%, L7 27.1%, season 24.7%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.18
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -116->-125)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 4.5 (-124) diff 11.3% Bet on DK
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs  |  Start: 2:21 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -124 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✓✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.51K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Robbie Ray: K/9 8.2, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .189 | OPS .623
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 60 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.3%, L7 22.8%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.92
  • Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
  • Line movement: toward this side (line 5.5->4.5, odds +104->-124)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min
⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-146) edge 8.7% Bet on DK
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers (F5)  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | exact
Checks: –✓!––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • [IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Comerica Park (PITCHER)
  • Framber Valdez xFIP 4.28
  • Bryan Woo xFIP 3.81
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
  • F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
  • Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)
⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C
B MONITOR ◇ Monitor F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-148) edge 8.4% Bet on DK
Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (F5)  |  Start: 7:06 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exact
Checks: –✓–––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)
  • [IL] Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Felipe Hernandez (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
  • Ryan Weathers xFIP 3.30
  • Sonny Gray xFIP 3.93
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 122 blended 50% (team 104)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
  • Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)
⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers8:16 PMTotalOver 7.5+10247.3%71.4%+24.1%$+44.159Bet on DK
CSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PMTotalUnder 11.0-11551.1%69.1%+18.0%$+29.129Bet on DK
CNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PMTotalOver 7.0-12553.1%68.2%+15.1%$+22.829Bet on DK
CTampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins7:11 PMTotalOver 7.5-11751.5%66.5%+15.0%$+23.419Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))
C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (Total)   +24.1%
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
  • Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 0.99
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.37)
  • Line movement: price improved (odds -105->+102)
C Under 11.0 — San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (Total)   +18.0%
  • [IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 11.0
  • Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 99)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
  • Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
  • Stats within normal range
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -110->-115)
C Over 7.0 — New York Mets @ San Diego Padres (Total)   +15.1%
  • [OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Jonathan Pintaro (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Daniel Duarte (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [DTD] Cesar Rivera (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
  • Home SP: Michael King (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
  • San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
  • New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
  • Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.94
  • Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Christian Scott small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -122->-125)
C Over 7.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins (Total)   +15.0%
  • [INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
  • Home SP: Ryan Gusto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
  • loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
  • Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
  • Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 100)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
  • Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.02
  • Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
  • Home SP (Ryan Gusto) stats unavailable — used league avg
  • Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.47)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -111->-117)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)8:41 PMF5 TotalUnder 6.5-12852.6%70.6%+18.0%$+25.812Bet on DK
CSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (F5)2:21 PMF5 TotalUnder 5.5+10446.0%62.3%+16.2%$+27.012Bet on DK
CCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (F5)8:16 PMF5 TotalOver 3.5-13253.7%65.3%+11.5%$+14.702Bet on DK
BSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers (F5)6:41 PMF5 TotalOver 3.5-14655.7%64.4%+8.7%$+8.463Bet on DK
BBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (F5)7:06 PMF5 TotalOver 3.5-14856.1%64.5%+8.4%$+8.111Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (5 play(s))
C Under 6.5 — Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total)   +18.0%
  • [IL] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 5.2 runs vs line 6.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
  • Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.22
  • Away SP TBD
  • Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
  • Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
  • Away SP: Brandon Sproat (RHP)
C Under 5.5 — San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total)   +16.2%
  • [IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Wrigley Field (HITTER)
  • Edward Cabrera xFIP 4.05
  • Robbie Ray xFIP 4.56
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 100)
  • San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP)
  • Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP)
  • Line movement: against this side (line 6.5->5.5, odds -144->+104)
C Over 3.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 Total)   +11.5%
  • [INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER)
  • Kumar Rocker xFIP 4.40
  • Parker Messick xFIP 3.37
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 97)
  • Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
  • F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP)
  • Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP)
  • Line movement: price worsened (odds -125->-132)
B Over 3.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers (F5) (F5 Total)   +8.7%
  • [IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Comerica Park (PITCHER)
  • Framber Valdez xFIP 4.28
  • Bryan Woo xFIP 3.81
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
  • Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
  • F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
  • Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)
B Over 3.5 — Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 Total)   +8.4%
  • [IL] Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Felipe Hernandez (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
  • Ryan Weathers xFIP 3.30
  • Sonny Gray xFIP 3.93
  • New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 122 blended 50% (team 104)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
  • Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)
GameTime (ET)SPsNRFI / MinYRFI / MinEdgeWhy not
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PMMichael King / Christian Scott6.3 / 7.73.7 / 7.7+16.2%Score 6.3 < 7.7 threshold
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PMEdward Cabrera / Robbie Ray5.3 / 7.74.7 / 7.7+14.7%Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies6:41 PMJesús Luzardo / Anthony Kay5.2 / 7.74.8 / 7.7+7.2%Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.2% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays7:08 PMTrey Yesavage / Brandon Young5.0 / 7.75.0 / 7.7+2.9%Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 2.9% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PMZebby Matthews / Michael Wacha4.9 / 7.75.1 / 7.7+2.3%Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 2.3% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (19 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers8:16 PMKumar Rocker / Parker Messick4.5 / 7.75.5 / 7.7-6.5%Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.5% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PMRyan Weathers / Sonny Gray4.2 / 7.75.8 / 7.7-5.9%Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.9% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (28 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins7:11 PMRyan Gusto / Drew Rasmussen ⚠ Home SP4.0 / 7.75.3 / 7.7-10.0%Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -10.0% < 8% required
Home SP (Ryan Gusto) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves7:16 PMMartín Pérez / Mitch Keller3.9 / 7.76.1 / 7.7-9.6%Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -9.6% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PMRoki Sasaki / TBD ⚠ Away SP3.8 / 7.75.5 / 7.7-10.5%Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -10.5% < 8% required
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers6:41 PMFramber Valdez / Bryan Woo3.8 / 7.76.2 / 7.7-16.2%Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.2% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PMMerrill Kelly / Foster Griffin3.2 / 7.76.8 / 7.7-12.9%Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.9% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals8:16 PMKyle Leahy / Brady Singer ⚠ Away SP3.2 / 7.76.1 / 7.7-12.7%Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -12.7% < 8% required
Away SP (Brady Singer) stats unavailable — league avg used | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PMRyan Feltner / Brandon Sproat ⚠ Away SP3.0 / 7.76.3 / 7.7-8.5%Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -8.5% < 8% required
Away SP (Brandon Sproat) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data partial (16 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Athletics @ Houston Astros8:11 PMPeter Lambert / Jack Perkins2.9 / 7.77.1 / 7.7-17.4%Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -17.4% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context
  • HR props parsed: 264 batter line(s)
  • Market discovery: batter_home_runs=264
  • Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
  • Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
  • Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
  • HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

TierPlayerTeamGameTime (ET)SpotPitcherBookOddsFirst HRHR ChanceMarket ImpliedEdgeChance ScoreFreshness
Best HR ChanceJames WoodWashington NationalsWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PM-Merrill Kelly (R)theScore Bet+350-37.4%20.8%+16.6%99-
Best HR ChanceCasey SchmittSan Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM-Edward Cabrera (R)theScore Bet+300-36.4%23.2%+13.2%99-
Best HR ChanceIan HappChicago CubsSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM-Robbie Ray (L)theScore Bet+300-36.3%23.2%+13.1%99-
Best HR ChanceKyle SchwarberPhiladelphia PhilliesChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies6:41 PM-Anthony Kay (L)theScore Bet+220-36.2%29.1%+7.1%99-
Best HR ChanceJake BauersMilwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PM-Ryan Feltner (R)theScore Bet+375-36.0%19.7%+16.3%99-
Best HR ChanceKazuma OkamotoToronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays7:08 PM-Brandon Young (R)theScore Bet+375-35.4%19.7%+15.7%99-
Best HR ChanceMike TroutLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM-Roki Sasaki (R)theScore Bet+350-34.7%20.8%+13.9%99-
Best HR ChanceCorbin CarrollArizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PM-Foster Griffin (L)theScore Bet+475-34.6%16.4%+18.2%99-
Best HR ChanceKetel MarteArizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PM-Foster Griffin (L)theScore Bet+400-33.7%18.8%+15.0%99-
Best HR ChancePete Crow-ArmstrongChicago CubsSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM-Robbie Ray (L)theScore Bet+325-33.2%22.0%+11.2%99-
Best HR ChanceJulio RodriguezSeattle MarinersSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers6:41 PM-Framber Valdez (L)theScore Bet+425-33.1%17.9%+15.2%99-
Best HR ChanceByron BuxtonMinnesota TwinsKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PM-Michael Wacha (R)theScore Bet+260-32.9%25.8%+7.1%99-
Best HR ChanceHunter GoodmanColorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PM-Brandon Sproat (R)theScore Bet+230-32.5%28.0%+4.5%99-
Best HR ChanceBryce HarperPhiladelphia PhilliesChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies6:41 PM-Anthony Kay (L)theScore Bet+425-32.3%17.9%+14.4%99-
Best HR ChanceBen RiceNew York YankeesBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PM-Sonny Gray (R)theScore Bet+350-31.1%20.8%+10.2%99-
Best HR ChanceJuan SotoNew York MetsNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PM-Michael King (R)theScore Bet+350-30.9%20.8%+10.1%99-
Best HR ChanceBrandon LowePittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves7:16 PM-Martín Pérez (L)theScore Bet+425-30.5%17.9%+12.6%99-
Strong HR ChanceWillson ContrerasBoston Red SoxBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PM-Ryan Weathers (L)theScore Bet+400-30.4%18.8%+11.7%99-
Best HR ChanceMatt OlsonAtlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves7:16 PM-Mitch Keller (R)theScore Bet+375-30.0%19.7%+10.3%99-
Strong HR ChanceYordan AlvarezHouston AstrosAthletics @ Houston Astros8:11 PM-Jack Perkins (R)theScore Bet+300-30.0%23.2%+6.8%99-

Game HR Environments

TierGameTime (ET)ScoreP(1+ HR)Fair OddsTop ThreatsEnvironmentRisks
Strong HR EnvironmentWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PM10090.0%-899James Wood, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, CJ AbramsChase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.0%-
Strong HR EnvironmentSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM10089.4%-845Casey Schmitt, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Willy AdamesWrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.6%-
Strong HR EnvironmentMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PM10088.7%-787Jake Bauers, Hunter Goodman, Tyler Freeman, Brice TurangCoors Field HR factor 1.20 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.3%-
Strong HR EnvironmentLos Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PM10087.9%-724Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Freddie Freeman, Andy PagesDodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1%-
Strong HR EnvironmentKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PM10087.7%-713Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Michael Massey, Jac CaglianoneTarget Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.3%-
Strong HR EnvironmentBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PM10087.4%-693Ben Rice, Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, Wilyer AbreuYankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%-
Strong HR EnvironmentCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals8:16 PM10086.8%-658Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, Victor Scott II, Jordan WalkerBusch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%-
Strong HR EnvironmentChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies6:41 PM10086.8%-657Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Colson Montgomery, Miguel VargasCitizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%-
WatchlistTampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins7:11 PM10085.4%-585Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Junior CamineroloanDepot park HR factor 0.88-
WatchlistCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers8:16 PM10084.7%-554Angel Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Kyle ManzardoGlobe Life Field HR factor 1.10-
WatchlistPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves7:16 PM10084.2%-535Brandon Lowe, Matt Olson, Oneil Cruz, Michael Harris IITruist Park HR factor 1.03-
WatchlistSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers6:41 PM9983.7%-514Julio Rodriguez, Dillon Dingler, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel PerezComerica Park HR factor 0.91-
WatchlistAthletics @ Houston Astros8:11 PM10083.4%-503Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Shea Langeliers, Nick KurtzUnknown Venue HR factor 1.00-
WatchlistBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays7:08 PM9980.3%-407Kazuma Okamoto, Pete Alonso, Samuel Basallo, Jesus SanchezRogers Centre HR factor 0.96-
WatchlistNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PM8980.0%-399Juan Soto, Jared Young, Ty France, Gavin SheetsPetco Park HR factor 0.85No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.0%, P(U1.5) 52.2%
▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)
Best HR Chance James Wood — Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+350) HR chance 37.4% | edge +16.6%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.254, OPS 0.928, ISO 0.263, TB/G 2.00
  • Statcast: barrel 25.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 96.1/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.615
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/63 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0438, xFIP 5.17, K% 14.1%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.407, xERA 7.28, whiff 22.1%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 0.984, ISO 0.285 (197 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.742, xwOBA 0.445 (37 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance Casey Schmitt — San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (+300) HR chance 36.4% | edge +13.2%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.236, OPS 0.844, ISO 0.246, TB/G 2.07
  • Statcast: barrel 14.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.4/112.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.509
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/55 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0345, xFIP 3.98, K% 20.7%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.332, xERA 4.48, whiff 27.0%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 0.797, ISO 0.260 (162 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.471, xwOBA 0.308 (26 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Best HR Chance Ian Happ — San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (+300) HR chance 36.3% | edge +13.1%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.237, OPS 0.843, ISO 0.254, TB/G 1.86
  • Statcast: barrel 15.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/111.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.458
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 14/59 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0486, xFIP 4.67, K% 21.9%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.354, xERA 5.19, whiff 26.1%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.393, K% 12.5% (8 PA)
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.040, OPS 0.578, ISO 0.176 (75 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (+220) HR chance 36.2% | edge +7.1%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.390, OPS 0.944, ISO 0.359, TB/G 2.24
  • Statcast: barrel 23.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.542
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 20/59 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0326, xFIP 4.99, K% 16.3%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.368, xERA 5.69, whiff 21.2%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 0.980, ISO 0.346 (96 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.307, xwOBA 0.272 (23 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)
Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (+375) HR chance 36.0% | edge +16.3%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.189, OPS 0.839, ISO 0.215, TB/G 1.70
  • Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.479
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/53 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0447, xFIP 4.27, K% 17.6%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.385, xERA 6.34, whiff 24.2%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.286, K% 28.6% (7 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.225 (159 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
Best HR Chance Kazuma Okamoto — Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (+375) HR chance 35.4% | edge +15.7%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.213, OPS 0.743, ISO 0.207, TB/G 1.57
  • Statcast: barrel 15.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.443
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 12/61 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0270, xFIP 4.95, K% 17.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.327, xERA 4.34, whiff 21.7%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.715, ISO 0.209 (191 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.445, xwOBA 0.363 (32 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Best HR Chance Mike Trout — Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+350) HR chance 34.7% | edge +13.9%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.226, OPS 0.890, ISO 0.239, TB/G 1.68
  • Statcast: barrel 21.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.5/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.587
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 13/62 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0456, xFIP 4.18, K% 22.5%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.336, xERA 4.61, whiff 29.2%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.899, ISO 0.247 (209 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.513, xwOBA 0.340 (30 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)
Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+475) HR chance 34.6% | edge +18.2%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.152, OPS 0.936, ISO 0.265, TB/G 2.07
  • Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/111.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.477
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 8/59 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0451, xFIP 3.91, K% 23.2%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.42, whiff 24.6%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.024, OPS 1.162, ISO 0.288 (82 PA)
  • Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0366
⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

PlayerGameTime (ET)OddsHR ChanceWhy lower
Taylor WardBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays7:08 PM+5000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Luke KeaschallKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PM+10000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Caleb DurbinBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PM+9000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Jeff McNeilAthletics @ Houston Astros8:11 PM+9000.5%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Steven KwanCleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers8:16 PM+12000.6%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form
Austin MartinKansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PM+11000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Kevin McGonigleSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers6:41 PM+7000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Brett BatyNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PM+7000.8%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Troy JohnstonMilwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PM+8000.9%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Luis ArraezSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PM+9001.2%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model &mdash; P(no HR)&ge;20% or P(under 1.5 HR)&ge;52.2% for a model signal
GameTime (ET)Home SPAway SPPark HRP(No HR)P(U 1.5)DK ImpliedEdgeV2 Result
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres9:41 PMMichael KingChristian Scott0.8520.0% PLAY52.2% PLAY——No HR C ALT / DERISK
U1.5 C ALT / DERISK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays7:08 PMTrey YesavageBrandon Young0.9619.7%51.7%——
Athletics @ Houston Astros8:11 PMPeter LambertJack Perkins1.0016.6%46.4%——
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers6:41 PMFramber ValdezBryan Woo0.9116.3%45.9%——
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves7:16 PMMartín PérezMitch Keller1.0315.7%44.9%——
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers8:16 PMKumar RockerParker Messick1.1015.3%44.0%——
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins7:11 PMRyan GustoDrew Rasmussen0.8814.6%42.7%——
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies6:41 PMJesús LuzardoAnthony Kay1.1013.2%39.9%——
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals8:16 PMKyle LeahyBrady Singer0.9313.2%39.9%——
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees7:06 PMRyan WeathersSonny Gray1.1812.6%38.7%——
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins8:16 PMZebby MatthewsMichael Wacha0.9512.3%38.1%——
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PMRoki SasakiNone0.9712.1%37.7%——
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies8:41 PMRyan FeltnerBrandon Sproat1.2011.3%35.9%——
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs2:21 PMEdward CabreraRobbie Ray1.0510.6%34.4%——
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks9:41 PMMerrill KellyFoster Griffin1.0210.0%33.1%——

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL New York Mets @ San Diego Padres — PLAY: No HR (20.0%) | PLAY: Under 1.5 HR (52.2%)
  • Poisson lambda_adj=1.608 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.73)
  • No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.676)
  • Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
  • Michael King pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 +0.8, xwOBA 0.318, HH% 34.7, mix CH/SI, n=1089)
  • Christian Scott pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.5, xwOBA 0.302, HH% 28.6, mix FF/ST, n=559)
  • Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
  • Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
  • San Diego Padres bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.4 IP)
  • New York Mets bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.79, expected pen 4.3 IP)
  • P(no HR) = 20.0% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.2%
  • Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
  • Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
  • Home SP (Michael King): 0.0205 HR/BF Away SP (Christian Scott): 0.0077 HR/BF
  • New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
  • DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Trey YesavageToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles70.663.881.53Split-Finger (42% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jesús LuzardoPhiladelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox67.270.466.04Sweeper (46% whiff, 36% usage)Savant whiff 32.3%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jack PerkinsAthletics vs Houston Astros62.961.966.55Changeup (45% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan WooSeattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers60.152.071.55Sweeper (38% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby MatthewsMinnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals59.952.569.55Slider (41% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Parker MessickCleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers58.757.264.56Changeup (45% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan WeathersNew York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox56.364.950.05Sweeper (46% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew RasmussenTampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins55.850.763.06Changeup (48% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael KingSan Diego Padres vs New York Mets52.959.950.054-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter LambertHouston Astros vs Athletics52.553.552.56Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael WachaKansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins51.153.650.56Changeup (34% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels51.060.639.53Slider (42% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Edward CabreraChicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants48.455.041.55Slider (45% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Christian ScottNew York Mets vs San Diego Padres47.048.845.56Sweeper (35% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster GriffinWashington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks46.952.142.57Sweeper (36% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon YoungBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays44.143.844.05Slider (40% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mitch KellerPittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves43.343.743.57Changeup (30% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon SproatMilwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies42.851.731.56Curveball (37% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar RockerTexas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians42.344.939.05Slider (35% whiff, 38% usage)Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny GrayBoston Red Sox vs New York Yankees42.341.643.06Sweeper (36% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber ValdezDetroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners42.042.042.55Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates41.739.744.05Changeup (33% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie RaySan Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs41.052.130.55Slider (35% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan GustoMiami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays35.458.615.06Slider (33% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan FeltnerColorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers34.351.215.06Changeup (56% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Anthony KayChicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies32.438.823.56Sweeper (28% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle LeahySt. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds32.347.116.06Changeup (45% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.383, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady SingerCincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals30.842.713.05Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill KellyArizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals24.541.24.06Slider (38% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.407, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Merrill KellyArizona Diamondbacks vs Washington NationalsR15.9%6.85.96.1114deepfull4.0096.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jack PerkinsAthletics vs Houston AstrosR23.0%2.1-5.035shortfull66.5033.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.1 IP/start
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh PiratesL22.7%3.46.45.757shortfull44.0056.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Brandon YoungBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysR19.8%5.35.45.489normalfull44.0056.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.3%
Sonny GrayBoston Red Sox vs New York YankeesR22.7%5.45.05.191normalfull43.0057.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 11.3%
Edward CabreraChicago Cubs vs San Francisco GiantsR21.9%4.75.45.379shortfull41.5058.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start
Anthony KayChicago White Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesL18.4%5.45.75.791normalfull23.5076.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Brady SingerCincinnati Reds vs St. Louis CardinalsR-4.3-5.572shortfull13.0087.00fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.3 IP/start, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Parker MessickCleveland Guardians vs Texas RangersL26.3%5.35.85.789normalfull64.5035.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Ryan FeltnerColorado Rockies vs Milwaukee BrewersR19.0%4.54.34.876shortfull15.0085.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Framber ValdezDetroit Tigers vs Seattle MarinersL18.6%5.35.65.589normalfull42.5057.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Peter LambertHouston Astros vs AthleticsR21.5%6.05.65.7101deepfull52.5047.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.7%
Michael WachaKansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsR22.0%6.26.36.2104deepfull50.5049.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsR23.2%5.65.15.294normalfull39.5060.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Ryan GustoMiami Marlins vs Tampa Bay RaysR-1.5-5.225shortfull15.0085.00fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.9%, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Brandon SproatMilwaukee Brewers vs Colorado RockiesR-4.3-5.572shortfull31.5068.50fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.3 IP/start, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Zebby MatthewsMinnesota Twins vs Kansas City RoyalsR24.0%5.85.85.897normalfull69.5030.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Christian ScottNew York Mets vs San Diego PadresR25.6%4.54.34.776shortfull45.5054.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start
Ryan WeathersNew York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxL28.0%5.95.86.099normalfull50.0050.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jesús LuzardoPhiladelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxL25.6%5.25.65.587normalfull66.0034.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%
Mitch KellerPittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesR18.2%5.35.75.689normalfull43.5056.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Michael KingSan Diego Padres vs New York MetsR23.3%5.55.75.692normalfull50.0050.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Robbie RaySan Francisco Giants vs Chicago CubsL20.3%4.55.25.076shortfull30.5069.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Bryan WooSeattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersR27.8%5.85.86.097normalfull71.5028.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.9%
Kyle LeahySt. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati RedsR20.0%5.05.05.084shortfull16.0084.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Drew RasmussenTampa Bay Rays vs Miami MarlinsR22.1%5.65.45.494normalfull63.0037.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Kumar RockerTexas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansR18.9%5.35.65.589normalfull39.0061.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.5%
Trey YesavageToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesR25.4%5.45.35.491normalfull81.5018.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.3%
Foster GriffinWashington Nationals vs Arizona DiamondbacksL24.6%5.45.65.591normalfull42.5057.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Brandon YoungBrandon Young UnderBaltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays17.514.9-2.614.8%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.489season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min
Framber ValdezFramber Valdez UnderSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers18.516.5-2.010.7%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.589season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min
Ryan WeathersRyan Weathers OverBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees17.519.31.810.2%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.099season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.79 <= 3 min
Foster GriffinFoster Griffin UnderWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks17.516.8-0.74.2%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.591season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly UnderWashington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks18.517.9-0.63.0%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.1114season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min
Bryan WooBryan Woo OverSeattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers17.518.00.52.8%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.097season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min
Jesus LuzardoJesus Luzardo OverChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies17.517.90.42.5%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.587season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min
Drew RasmussenDrew Rasmussen UnderTampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins17.517.1-0.42.5%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.494season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min
Michael KingMichael King UnderNew York Mets @ San Diego Padres17.517.4-0.10.7%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.692season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

212 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap
PlayerGameResearch SideComponent ProjHRRBICurrentUncertaintySupportFlags
Yandy DiazTampa Bay Rays @ Miami MarlinsOver 1.52.851.690.580.583.01 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan WalkerCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.761.170.750.843.04 / Over0.35season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel LoweCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.681.460.610.612.61 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
James WoodWashington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.641.050.890.693.16 / Over0.40season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
CJ AbramsWashington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.601.110.650.842.81 / Over0.35season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben RiceBoston Red Sox @ New York YankeesOver 1.52.571.100.760.722.78 / Over0.35season_games=57,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shea LangeliersAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.571.180.760.642.36 / Over0.35season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yordan AlvarezAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.561.120.690.752.41 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Oneil CruzPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.551.090.740.722.55 / Over0.35season_games=61,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt OlsonPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.521.060.710.752.75 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick KurtzAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.471.010.690.762.37 / Over0.35season_games=61,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ian HappSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago CubsOver 1.52.430.920.820.692.53 / Over0.35season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon LowePittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.421.010.700.712.61 / Over0.35season_games=57,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan O'HearnPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.391.070.620.692.42 / Over0.35season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Byron BuxtonKansas City Royals @ Minnesota TwinsOver 1.52.351.070.760.522.22 / Over0.35season_games=54,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis ArraezSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago CubsOver 1.52.351.280.590.472.23 / Over0.35season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Corbin CarrollWashington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.351.090.700.552.39 / Over0.35season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Christian WalkerAthletics @ Houston AstrosOver 1.52.290.900.620.772.12 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal StewartCincinnati Reds @ St. Louis CardinalsOver 1.52.271.010.590.682.52 / Over0.35season_games=61,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jung Hoo LeeSan Francisco Giants @ Chicago CubsOver 1.52.271.230.580.452.37 / Over0.35season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel VargasChicago White Sox @ Philadelphia PhilliesOver 1.52.270.850.750.662.10 / Over0.35season_games=61,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie AlbiesPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.271.090.640.542.30 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick GonzalesPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.241.170.560.512.31 / Over0.35season_games=57,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan ReynoldsPittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta BravesOver 1.52.230.960.650.622.32 / Over0.35season_games=63,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Garcia Jr.Washington Nationals @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.52.231.220.510.512.17 / Over0.69exact_hrr_l10research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

SectionWhat it shows
V2 Ranked PlaysGrade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate SweepEvery evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust TiersSettled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion CriteriaThe concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation ImpactRuntime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data ReadinessInput availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's SlateDraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail SectionsMarket detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#CheckWhat it evaluatesPASS condition
1Baby LineLine size, batter opportunity, run-line cushionNo baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2Model EdgeProjection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3Books AgreeDK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other booksDK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4MatchupPark factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splitsPark/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5Role / InjuryConfirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concernsNo injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6Game ScriptCombined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spreadEnvironment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

GradeScoreRecommendationWhen to bet
A10–12, 0 FAILsBEST PLAYCore play — all six checks aligned
B7–9, ≤1 FAILGOOD ADDStrong play with minor caveats
C4–6PASSThin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D2–3 or model edge FAILPASSDo not bet — weak signal
F0–1HARD FADEConsider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

SignalMeaning
⭐ TOP PICKExisting Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best PlayTrusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong WatchWatch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research LeadResearch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused SignalPaused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

StageRecommendation behaviorEvidence needed
TrustedEligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
WatchVisible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
ResearchScored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
PausedShadow-only. No actionable recommendations.A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

PatternWhy it conflicts
Total Over + NRFIHigh-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFILow-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFIPitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total UnderPlayer production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

ElementMeaning
Progress barVisual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / totalRequests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

ColumnMeaning
Away ML / Home MLDraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RLRun line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
TotalOver/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con MLConsensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

ColumnMeaning
GradeV2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
TypeMoneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK OddsDraftKings price for that side
ImpliedDK implied probability after vig removal
ModelWin probability our model calculates independently
EdgeModel% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
BooksNumber of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

StepWhat it calculatesData sourceWeight
1. Pitching edge How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.
home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20
pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch
A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.		 FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck 50%
2. Offense edge How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.
home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100
off_edge = home_bat − away_bat
A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.		 MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 35%
3. Home field Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. Historical MLB average home-field effect +4%
4. Score diff score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)
The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.		 Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x)

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

SourceWeightStats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)65%xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)35%ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

StepCalculation
Base2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factorAverage of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factorAverage of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)
Park adjustmentRaw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage typeMeaning
Active recommendation marketTrusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated marketResearch markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow researchPaused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only sourceContext layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

ComponentPurposeRecommendation impact today
PitcherAssessmentStarter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch QualityFree public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research GateShows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component ResearchBreaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player ContextHome/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI ReviewOptional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

StateImpactHow to read it
READYAvailableThe input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATANon-blockingThe feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIALNon-blockingThe source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLENon-blockingThe odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSINGNon-blocking unless marked otherwiseThe configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITEDNon-blockingThe run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKINGAction neededA core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

StateHow it is used
Pre-lineupActive-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineupExact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverageThe model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

ArtifactUse it for
Main HTML reportDaily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTMLCandidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSONMachine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance reportSettled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSVSingle source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

ColumnMeaning
Away SP / Home SPProbable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI ScoreComposite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

LabelEdge RequiredSuggested Unit Size
FULL≥20%Full unit
HALF≥15%Half unit
QRTR≥15%Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)<15%No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

LabelWhat it means
HIGHBoth pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MEDOne or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOWModel running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

TermDefinition
xFIPExpected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent formLast 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factorVenue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
EdgeModel win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 betsFirst 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK noteThe "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.