MLB Bets 2026-06-04

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	158W–98L–0P	62%	+16.88 u	Last 14 days • 256 settled
Grade A	10W–10L–0P	50%	-2.88 u
Grade B	148W–88L–0P	63%	+19.77 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	661W–579L–7P	53%	-57.45 u	All-time • 1247 settled
Grade A	120W–93L–0P	56%	-3.60 u
Grade B	541W–486L–7P	53%	-53.85 u

31 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Byron Buxton	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Christian Walker	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Freddie Freeman	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Bauers	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Olson	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	William Contreras	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Batter Hits	Jarren Duran	1.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	K Prop	Brayan Bello	3.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	K Prop	Carlos Rodon	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	K Prop	Lucas Giolito	3.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Trevor Rogers	2.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	JT Ginn	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Justin Wrobleski	6.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryne Nelson	5.5	108	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor Rogers	5.5	112	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Pitcher Outs	Justin Wrobleski	17.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Run Line	Cleveland Guardians	+1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Run Line	San Diego Padres	+1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-04	Total	Under	10.5	-116	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-06-03	Run Line	San Diego Padres	+1.5	-122	-	WIN	+0.820	Final: San Diego Padres 2, Philadelphia
2026-06-03	K Prop	George Kirby	5.5	-116	-	WIN	+0.862	George Kirby: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-06-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-146	-	WIN	+0.685	Yandy Díaz: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Jonathan Aranda	1.5	-136	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jonathan Aranda: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez	1.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Otto Lopez: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Heriberto Hernandez	1.5	-142	-	LOSS	-1.000	Heriberto Hernández: 1.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

16 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	239	56%	-5.15u	46	61%	+2.17u	112	59%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	153	61%	+16.36u	39	62%	+4.47u	1	100%
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	115	52%	-5.75u	35	49%	-5.78u	39	64%
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	37	70%	+8.80u	37	70%	+8.80u	0	-
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	36	69%	+5.86u	36	69%	+5.86u	0	-
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	29	52%	-1.28u	9	67%	+1.95u	0	-
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	21	81%	+2.85u	7	71%	+0.02u	0	-
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	21	57%	-1.41u	21	57%	-1.41u	0	-
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	75	41%	-13.74u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	42	38%	-9.29u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	431	49%	-56.91u	24	58%	+0.72u	59	46%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 239, 14d N 46	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 candidate(s); season N 153, 14d N 39	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 candidate(s); season N 115, 14d N 35	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 17 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 17/17 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 candidate(s); season N 21, 14d N 7	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 29, 14d N 9	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s); season N 431, 14d N 24	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 140 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	AI review: API error -- Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, read the docs: https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/error-codes/api-errors.', 'type
✓	READY	Available	Savant: 659 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 258 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 162 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 647 pitcher(s), 2788 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 492 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 17 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 18 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 18 roster team(s), 234 hitter(s) \| 17 SP matchup(s), 808 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 234 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 18 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 18 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, Athletics
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 1324 market side(s) checked \| 1324 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 16 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 9 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 9 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 140 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 9 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 533 \| batter bats 300 \| batter hand splits 165 \| pitcher HR splits 71 \| batter pitch-type 492 \| bullpen HR 30
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 159 batter(s) scored \| 9 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	+157	-192	+1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+110)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	+141	-171	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+153	-186	+1.5 (-130)	-1.5 (+108)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+163	-199	+1.5 (-122)	-1.5 (+102)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+152)	+1.5 (-185)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+112)	+1.5 (-135)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 8 Grade B | 466 Derisk/Monitor | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (8 play(s))

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (-146) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.74 (WHIP 1.18, BB% 10.2%)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 6.5 (-132) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -132 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 4.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 30.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 (WHIP 1.07, BB% 6.2%)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.14x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.155
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 13.5%, L7 19.5%, season 20.2% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryne Nelson Under 5.5 (+108) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.1%)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 110)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryne Nelson: 116 PA | K% 19.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .216 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 17.6%, season 20.1%, BVP 19.8%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Batter Hits — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-262) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.219)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.201 (13 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/46 (33%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/55 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/26 under 1.5 (85%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 22/29 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Hits: 44/55 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.89

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-262) — break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-135) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -133 | best price

Checks: –✓✓!–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+21.98/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.2% ≥ 5%
✓ Arizona Diamondbacks home RL 67% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -135 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Ryne Nelson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 125 vs LHP (tough)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-130) edge 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct San Francisco Giants 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: –✓✓!–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+17.04/$100
✓ Cover prob 66.2% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 12.1% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 4 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -130 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Coleman Crow (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Adrian Houser (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 98)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Coleman Crow small sample (14 IP) — stats 17% actual / 83% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — San Diego Padres +1.5 1.5 (-132) edge 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel San Diego Padres 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+15.77/$100
✓ Cover prob 65.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 11.4% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 4 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -132 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Lucas Giolito (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 95)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 0.95
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Lucas Giolito small sample (12 IP) — stats 15% actual / 85% league avg (regression applied)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — Cleveland Guardians +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Cleveland Guardians 1.5 -142 | best price

Checks: –!✓!–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+10.13/$100
✓ Cover prob 65.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 8.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Carlos Rodón (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Slade Cecconi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 105)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Carlos Rodón small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▼ Derisk / Monitor Plays (466 play(s))

A SMALL PLAY ◔ Small Play K Prop — Brayan Bello Over 3.5 (-168) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► SMALL PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 75.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.63K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.20)
Brayan Bello: K/9 7.0, proj 6.1K over 7.1 IP (season 8.0 IP/GS, recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.376 | top pitch: Cutter (46% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Brayan Bello: 110 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .290 | OPS .875
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.9%, L7 17.5%, season 23.6%, BVP 20.9%/110 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.64
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 18.7% vs season 15.6%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -168 — A would have capped at B

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-168) — break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.63K, diff 75.2%, books 80%)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (-101) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 53.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.95K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Jared Jones: K/9 8.7, proj 8.4K over 5.6 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 36.1% | put-away% 34.9% | xwOBA 0.387 | top pitch: Curveball (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.6%, L7 23.9%, season 21.4% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — JT Ginn Over 3.5 (-166) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 41.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.46K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.67)
JT Ginn: K/9 8.0, proj 5.0K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS)
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 (-135) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 4.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 25.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.15K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (5 books): 0/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Trevor Rogers: K/9 7.2, proj 3.4K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS, recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .675
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Adrian Houser Under 3.5 (+105) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.86K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Adrian Houser: K/9 6.6, proj 2.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 17.4% | put-away% 12.3% | xwOBA 0.368 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 15.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Adrian Houser: 16 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.207
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 20.1%, L7 20.0%, season 20.7%, BVP 0.0%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 16.7% vs season 13.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.6% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.6% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 (-142) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.06K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Carlos Rodon: K/9 9.1, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS, recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 121 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .706
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 121 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 12.2%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 20.7%/121 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 under 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Coleman Crow Under 3.5 (+108) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.43K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Coleman Crow: K/9 6.9, proj 3.1K over 5.3 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS, recent 4.7 IP/3 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 16.3% | put-away% 10.2% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Curveball (25% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Coleman Crow: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 21.2%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Slade Cecconi Under 4.5 (-149) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.54K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Slade Cecconi: K/9 7.7, proj 4.0K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.3% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 44.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .304 | OPS 1.109
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.4%, L7 19.7%, season 23.1%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (+107) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +112 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.49K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Seth Lugo: K/9 7.7, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 17.4% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Cutter (23% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 72 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .294 | OPS .716
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.7%, L7 24.4%, season 23.1%, BVP 18.1%/72 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 (+104) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.66K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (4 books): 1/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.25)
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.6, proj 7.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 28 PA | K% 39.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 39.3%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 (-169) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.21K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Ryne Nelson: K/9 7.1, proj 4.3K over 5.7 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryne Nelson: 116 PA | K% 19.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .216 | OPS .699
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 116 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 17.6%, season 20.1%, active roster 19.8%/7 hitters, BVP 19.8%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 (-125) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.22K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (5 books): 1/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Zack Wheeler: K/9 8.0, proj 6.3K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .190 | OPS .571
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 83 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.9%, L7 26.5%, season 23.5%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.71 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 3.5 (-108) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +102 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.07K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 6.6, proj 3.4K over 6.7 IP (season 6.9 IP/GS, recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 17.2% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.91x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.155
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 13.5%, L7 19.5%, season 20.2% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 19.1% vs season 16.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 125 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.91) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (-105) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 7.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.07K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (4 books): 0/4 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Chris Sale: K/9 10.9, proj 7.6K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.4% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 64 PA | K% 26.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .268 | OPS .737
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 13.2%, L7 20.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.6%/64 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 7.27
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Carlos Rodon Under 17.5 (-118) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 13.087 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 25.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS, weight 40%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 77, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 77
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 121 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 12.2%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 20.7%/121 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.5%, L7 5.7%, season 10.5%, BVP 9.9%/121 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.8 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.2%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.25 | Season Avg 14.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/4 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Ryne Nelson Under 17.5 (-117) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)

Proj 16.709 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.3 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 110) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 112, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 112
BVP (active roster) vs Ryne Nelson: 116 PA | K% 19.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .216 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 17.6%, season 20.1%, BVP 19.8%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 11.4%, L7 6.9%, season 10.4%, BVP 9.5%/116 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 18.5 (-112) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -112 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 19.026 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 64 PA | K% 26.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .268 | OPS .737
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 13.2%, L7 20.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.6%/64 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.7%, L7 7.4%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.8%/64 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.0%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 18.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 (+129) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 18.982 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 70%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.3 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 91) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .190 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.9%, L7 26.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.3%, L7 7.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.8%/83 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.71 | Season Avg 18.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/7 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (+134) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.2 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 60.1% / under 39.9%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 28 PA | K% 39.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 39.3%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 11.6%, L7 7.7%, season 9.8%, BVP 0.0%/28 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 (+112) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +112 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.30 (WHIP 1.66, BB% 8.3%)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books) — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 (-124) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 (WHIP 1.21, BB% 6.6%)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 28 PA | K% 39.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 39.3%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Adrian Houser Over 5.5 (-107) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 (WHIP 1.47, BB% 8.3%)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.12x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Adrian Houser: 16 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.207
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 20.1%, L7 20.0%, season 20.7%, BVP 0.0%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brayan Bello Under 5.5 (-125) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.3%)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Brayan Bello: 110 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .290 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.9%, L7 17.5%, season 23.6%, BVP 20.9%/110 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Under 5.5 (+102) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 (WHIP 1.42, BB% 7.8%)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 72 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .294 | OPS .716
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.7%, L7 24.4%, season 23.1%, BVP 18.1%/72 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min — would have capped at D

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 (-139) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 3.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.72 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 7.85)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Adrian Houser Under 3.5 (-156) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.87 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.79)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Adrian Houser: 16 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.207
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 20.1%, L7 20.0%, season 20.7%, BVP 0.0%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-125) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.50 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.87)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 91)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .190 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.9%, L7 26.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.57 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/7 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Over 1.5 (-135) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.26 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.14)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 64 PA | K% 26.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .268 | OPS .737
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 13.2%, L7 20.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.6%/64 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 (-169) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.85)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 121 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 12.2%, L7 25.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 20.7%/121 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (+102) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +102 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.24)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Under 2.5 (-103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.54)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.155
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 13.5%, L7 19.5%, season 20.2% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Brayan Bello Over 2.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.77 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.34)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Brayan Bello: 110 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .290 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.9%, L7 17.5%, season 23.6%, BVP 20.9%/110 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Slade Cecconi Over 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.51)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .304 | OPS 1.109
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.4%, L7 19.7%, season 23.1%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Coleman Crow Under 2.5 (-158) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.78)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Coleman Crow: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 21.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/3 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryne Nelson Over 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.20)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 110)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryne Nelson: 116 PA | K% 19.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .216 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 17.6%, season 20.1%, BVP 19.8%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Lucas Giolito Under 2.5 (+103) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +103 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.67)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Lucas Giolito: 95 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .212 | OPS .866
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.4%, BVP 31.6%/95 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Under 2.5 (+101) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.44 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.11)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 72 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .294 | OPS .716
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.7%, L7 24.4%, season 23.1%, BVP 18.1%/72 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-109) Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.54 (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.40)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 28 PA | K% 39.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 39.3%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-243) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-238) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-261) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.279 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/34 (24%) | L5 4/15 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 41/50 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/27 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 19/23 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter Hits: 41/50 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-244) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -244 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.241)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 9/23 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/62 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter Hits: 26/31 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 51/62 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-254) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Mookie Betts Under 1.5 (-254) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-258) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.166 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/42 (24%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 47/61 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/30 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 47/61 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-272) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/45 (29%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/30 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 20/27 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-272) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.493 (18 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/33 (24%) | L5 4/14 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 46/59 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/29 under 1.5 (93%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Hits: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 46/59 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-206) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.317 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/62 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 45/62 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Pete Alonso Under 1.5 (-240) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.242)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.364 (17 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/62 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 47/62 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-225) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.389 (72 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 1/18 (6%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/57 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-264) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.388 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/61 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 22/27 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 49/61 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-222) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.291)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.262 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .357
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/62 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 26/31 under 1.5 (84%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-209) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.219)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.338 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 25 PA | 7/22 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/43 (16%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/61 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/34 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 21/27 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 47/61 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-249) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.445 (22 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/53 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 18/26 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 21/27 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-241) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.522 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/59 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 15/29 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-244) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.276)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.423 (34 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 20 PA | 6/19 | HR 1 | K% 5.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/59 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 15/28 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-256) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.370 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 3/21 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/55 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 17/23 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-135) diff 110.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 3.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 110.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
Base projection 2.52 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.591, xSLG 0.956 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/62 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.52

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s) — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-149) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.71
Base projection 2.71 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.370 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/56 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/24 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.91 | Day Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.71

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.4 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-154) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/56 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.67 | Away Batter HRR: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.45

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 20%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -154 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-164) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/55 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 14/23 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.36

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -164 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-126) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/52 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 12/23 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+105) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.55
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.510 (22 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 35/60 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.55

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-126) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.53
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/62 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 23/33 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 39/62 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.53

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-157) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.741 (22 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/53 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.32

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -157 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-121) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.236 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/62 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-130) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.565 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 26 PA | 6/21 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .947
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/58 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-149) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.423, xSLG 0.615 (34 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 20 PA | 6/19 | HR 1 | K% 5.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 32/59 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15

⚠ ⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 — B would have capped at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-111) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.463 (10 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/54 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/21 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-120) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.492 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/27 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.96 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 37/60 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.493 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/59 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/26 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-164) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.567 (72 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 30/57 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.76 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-116) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.585, xSLG 0.943 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.1% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-139) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/55 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.60 | Away Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-129) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.414 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/54 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 17/26 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-127) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/62 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 35/62 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-130) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.501 (70 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/58 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 17/28 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-109) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.495 (21 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/56 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 16/26 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-136) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.271 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 8 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/59 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-158) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.522, xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 32/59 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-134) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 19/32 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.81 | Day Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-129) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.238 (18 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/60 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 21/32 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-133) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.493, xSLG 0.688 (18 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/59 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-107) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.385 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .464
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/56 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/31 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 14/25 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-164) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.388, xSLG 0.493 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-108) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.245 (20 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 12/24 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.75 | Day Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-101) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.355 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 30/54 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/22 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-108) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.315 (13 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kai-Wei Teng: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/47 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 12/22 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-135) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.274 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.786
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-149) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.237 (15 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/58 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Under 2.5 (-161) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+121) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/35 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+105) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.422 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-120) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.428, xSLG 0.607 (54 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-133) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.270 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/58 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-124) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.400 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .457
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+101) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.224 (15 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/62 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (-103) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.316 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 28/61 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-154) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.201, xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 26/55 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-129) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 25/48 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/23 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 17/25 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-114) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.501 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/60 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.193 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 32/62 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+100) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.474 (21 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/58 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-164) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.396 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 43/62 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/31 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 20/31 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 43/62 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-155) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.166, xSLG 0.172 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/61 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 2.5 (-155) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.91 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.451 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/32 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 20/30 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 40/62 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-151) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-106) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.205 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/51 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 9/22 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-137) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.526 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-110) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 22/48 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 13/24 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-123) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 62 PA | 13/53 | HR 0 | K% 6.5% | BB% 12.9% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 62 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-128) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.364 (10 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Over 1.5 (-154) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.312 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/50 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 9/23 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-147) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.187 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+126) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/62 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/31 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter HRR: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-107) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.245 (30 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 14 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | OPS .812
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/60 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-132) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.216 (15 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/57 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/26 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter HRR: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-103) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.399 (38 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/61 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Chapman Over 1.5 (+123) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.438 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/61 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+129) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.436 (31 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/60 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+102) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 27/62 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (-118) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 31/57 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-165) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.280 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 36/55 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter HRR: 16/25 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter HRR: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-136) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/53 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/28 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 20/25 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter HRR: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+104) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.296 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (-106) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.144, xSLG 0.163 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+100) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.481, xSLG 0.628 (15 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/56 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Frelick Over 1.5 (-115) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 21/56 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-108) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/57 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+106) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.327 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 23/55 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.470 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 23/57 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+117) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/58 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-105) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.113, xSLG 0.107 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/57 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-123) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.434 (76 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-113) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.194 (10 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-148) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-127) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (-112) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (-109) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Call Over 1.5 (-101) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Troy Over 1.5 (+108) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fernandez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Freeland Over 1.5 (+122) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-116) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.396 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/57 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/29 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-145) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Meyers Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-150) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/54 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 13/26 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-102) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+110) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+119) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-138) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 92 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Under 1.5 (-166) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 92 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Mateo Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-148) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.169, xSLG 0.235 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/57 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-153) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 27 PA | 4/26 | HR 0 | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | OPS .339
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/31 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Under 2.5 (-152) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.562 (17 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 25 PA | 7/22 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/34 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 19/27 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 40/61 under 2.5 (66%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-108) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 34/59 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/31 over 1.5 (61%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Brent Rooker Over 1.5 (-123) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colby Thomas Over 1.5 (-115) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+103) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Moisés Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+113) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Darell Hernaiz Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (+111) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.163, xSLG 0.191 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/59 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (+100) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.291 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/59 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-134) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/55 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter HRR: 14/27 under 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Under 2.5 (-156) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.43 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.386 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/34 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 18/28 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 40/62 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 2.5 (+121) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 2.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
Base projection 2.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.374 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .357
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/62 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/31 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 12/31 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 24/62 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Andujar Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 24/49 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (+104) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.187, xSLG 0.260 (13 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/59 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 15/29 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 34/59 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-149) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (-137) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 1.5 (-127) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Marcelo Mayer Over 1.5 (-119) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-107) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+100) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Narvaez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Colton Cowser Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-113) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Under 1.5 (-134) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-139) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Under 1.5 (-145) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-157) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Gray Under 1.5 (-166) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Under 1.5 (-175) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-167) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-113) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter H+R+RBI — David Hamilton Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ ⚠ HRR cluster cap: derisk posture — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 96.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 96.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.956 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/62 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.35

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+110) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.565 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 26 PA | 6/21 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .947
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/58 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-106) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/56 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-118) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.741 (22 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/53 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.0% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-119) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.562 (17 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 25 PA | 7/22 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/61 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.1% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+120) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.463 (10 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/54 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.19
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/62 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter TB: 37/62 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-107) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/55 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+100) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.615 (34 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 20 PA | 6/19 | HR 1 | K% 5.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 17/28 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+114) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.236 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-113) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .357
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+126) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.943 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/61 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+110) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.501 (70 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 28/58 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-197) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.216 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/57 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/26 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+138) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 23/52 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-166) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.107 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/57 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-106) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.386 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/62 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-109) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.567 (72 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-183) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/59 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+119) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 24/59 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/27 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+107) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/56 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 5/23 over 1.5 (22%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-200) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/56 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 19/24 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-143) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -143 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 38/59 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/59 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+104) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.237 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 23/58 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-165) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.245 (30 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 14 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | OPS .812
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/60 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 23/32 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+124) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.492 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/60 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/27 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter TB: 8/33 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+135) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.316 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/61 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+131) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.245 (20 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/56 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 12/24 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-178) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.434 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+121) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .457
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/56 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-149) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+144) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.385 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .464
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/56 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+125) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-156) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/57 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 19/26 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-123) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+149) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/54 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/22 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+114) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/55 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-160) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (10 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/59 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/26 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+127) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.414 (76 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 21/54 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 12/26 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/58 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-191) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.396 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/57 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/29 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+112) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.688 (18 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 20/59 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/29 over 1.5 (17%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-131) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 35/50 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 19/23 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-181) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/55 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-175) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.501 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/60 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-145) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.187 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+115) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.786
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 20/60 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 20/60 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-157) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.172 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/61 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 39/61 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+119) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.238 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/60 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+136) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.607 (54 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 20/56 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 8/27 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+149) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +150 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+105) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+123) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+129) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 19/48 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-166) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.194 (10 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/58 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/25 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 32/58 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+143) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.271 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 8 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 21/59 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/30 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+102) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 20/55 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/26 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.399 (38 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/61 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 (-186) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/57 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/32 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 18/25 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/30 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brent Rooker Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Colby Thomas Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-206) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.495 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/56 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 13/26 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 1.5 (-180) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.163 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/27 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 16/31 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-124) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.396 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Marcelo Mayer Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Miguel Andujar Under 1.5 (-202) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/49 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 12/24 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-171) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.526 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/61 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.493 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 21/61 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/34 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 21/61 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-146) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 62 PA | 13/53 | HR 0 | K% 6.5% | BB% 12.9% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 62 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/63 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 38/63 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+100) edge 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 +100 | exact

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.01)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 35% (team 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-105) edge 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8.5 -102 | best price

Checks: –✓–––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Carlos Rodón (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Slade Cecconi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 105)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Carlos Rodón small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-110) edge 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Over 8 -108 | best price

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Lucas Giolito (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 95)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 0.95
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Lucas Giolito small sample (12 IP) — stats 15% actual / 85% league avg (regression applied)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-108) edge 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Checks: –✓–––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Shota Imanaga xFIP 4.20
J.T. Ginn xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-148) edge 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exact

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Chris Sale xFIP 4.20
Away SP TBD
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 122 blended 50% (team 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-138) edge 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Checks: –✓!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Coleman Crow xFIP 4.20
Adrian Houser xFIP 4.20
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Coleman Crow (RHP)
Away SP: Adrian Houser (RHP)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+132) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +132

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Shota Imanaga: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.9%, BB% 6.6%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 30.9%, BB% 9.5%, whiff% 35.2%
J.T. Ginn: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.8%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.323, K% 28.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 31.3%
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 100)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.16 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 0.99
Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Shota Imanaga: 70% (10 starts) | J.T. Ginn: 90% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.262 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +132 | implied 43.1% | model edge +10.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -170 | implied 63.0% | model edge -1.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Kai-Wei Teng: xFIP 4.20, K% 25.2%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 25.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (19 PA): xwOBA 0.194, K% 36.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 30.6%
Jared Jones: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.8%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.387, whiff% 36.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (4 PA): xwOBA 0.355, K% 25.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 25.0%
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 101)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.77 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.79
NRFI rate: Kai-Wei Teng: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 19-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 9-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.591 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +2.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +6.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Ryne Nelson: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.8%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.350, whiff% 22.2% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.277, K% 25.7%, BB% 5.7%, whiff% 14.3%
Justin Wrobleski: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.0%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 17.2% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.380, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 26.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.77 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.91
Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Ryne Nelson: 89% (9 starts) | Justin Wrobleski: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 11-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch) | Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.356 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -3.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +12.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+104) edge -6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Andrew Morris: xFIP 4.20, K% 23.3%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 24.0% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (6 PA): xwOBA 0.192, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 9.1%
Seth Lugo: xFIP 4.20, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.348, whiff% 17.4% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.436, K% 24.4%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 15.8%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.82 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.84
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Seth Lugo: 44% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -6.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +15.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-136) edge -7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -136

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Chris Sale: xFIP 4.20, K% 30.3%, BB% 6.8%, xwOBA 0.284, whiff% 30.4% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 35.3%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 28.6%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.69
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
NRFI rate: Chris Sale: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.277 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -7.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +8.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge -8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Carlos Rodón: xFIP 4.20, K% 23.6%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (17 PA): xwOBA 0.282, K% 29.4%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.8%
Slade Cecconi: xFIP 4.20, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 21.3% | 1st inn full (48 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 16.7%, BB% 10.4%, whiff% 13.5%
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 130 (team avg 105)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.50
Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Slade Cecconi: 60% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 22-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 9-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.279 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Yankees struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.233 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -8.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +17.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -10.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Zack Wheeler: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.8%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.284, whiff% 25.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.187, K% 28.0%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 25.5%
Lucas Giolito: xFIP 4.20, K% 17.1%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.350, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (14 PA): xwOBA 0.391, K% 7.1%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 19.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 95)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 93)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.05 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Zack Wheeler: 71% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -10.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +19.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+114) edge -16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +114

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Brayan Bello: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.0%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.376, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.506, K% 14.3%, BB% 10.7%, whiff% 21.2%
Trevor Rogers: xFIP 4.20, K% 17.2%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 10.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 20.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.04
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Brayan Bello: 40% (5 starts) | Trevor Rogers: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game YRFI (-0.2)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge -16.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +25.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 1.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 1.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge -20.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Coleman Crow: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.350, whiff% 16.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (9 PA): xwOBA 0.394, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 13.3%
Adrian Houser: xFIP 4.20, K% 16.4%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.368, whiff% 17.4% | 1st inn full (46 PA): xwOBA 0.485, K% 17.4%, BB% 13.0%, whiff% 16.0%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.19, SO/G 0.49
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Adrian Houser: 33% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.349 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -20.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +29.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Coleman Crow: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.350, whiff% 16.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (9 PA): xwOBA 0.394, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 13.3%
Adrian Houser: xFIP 4.20, K% 16.4%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.368, whiff% 17.4% | 1st inn full (46 PA): xwOBA 0.485, K% 17.4%, BB% 13.0%, whiff% 16.0%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.19, SO/G 0.49
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Adrian Houser: 33% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 16-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.349 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -20.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +29.4%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-146) edge 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -146

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Brayan Bello: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.0%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.376, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.506, K% 14.3%, BB% 10.7%, whiff% 21.2%
Trevor Rogers: xFIP 4.20, K% 17.2%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 10.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 20.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.04
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Brayan Bello: 40% (5 starts) | Trevor Rogers: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game YRFI (-0.2)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge -16.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +25.7%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 26% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Zack Wheeler: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.8%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.284, whiff% 25.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.187, K% 28.0%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 25.5%
Lucas Giolito: xFIP 4.20, K% 17.1%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.350, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (14 PA): xwOBA 0.391, K% 7.1%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 19.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 95)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 93)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.05 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Zack Wheeler: 71% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -10.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +19.4%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Carlos Rodón: xFIP 4.20, K% 23.6%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (17 PA): xwOBA 0.282, K% 29.4%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.8%
Slade Cecconi: xFIP 4.20, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 21.3% | 1st inn full (48 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 16.7%, BB% 10.4%, whiff% 13.5%
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 130 (team avg 105)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.50
Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Slade Cecconi: 60% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 22-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 9-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.279 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Yankees struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.233 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -8.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +17.6%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-132) edge 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Andrew Morris: xFIP 4.20, K% 23.3%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 24.0% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (6 PA): xwOBA 0.192, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 9.1%
Seth Lugo: xFIP 4.20, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.348, whiff% 17.4% | 1st inn full (41 PA): xwOBA 0.436, K% 24.4%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 15.8%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.82 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.84
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Seth Lugo: 44% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -6.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +15.9%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Ryne Nelson: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.8%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.350, whiff% 22.2% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.277, K% 25.7%, BB% 5.7%, whiff% 14.3%
Justin Wrobleski: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.0%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 17.2% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.380, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 26.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.77 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.91
Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Ryne Nelson: 89% (9 starts) | Justin Wrobleski: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 11-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch) | Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.356 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -3.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +12.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+106) edge 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Chris Sale: xFIP 4.20, K% 30.3%, BB% 6.8%, xwOBA 0.284, whiff% 30.4% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 35.3%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 28.6%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.69
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
NRFI rate: Chris Sale: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.277 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -7.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +8.2%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-111) edge 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Kai-Wei Teng: xFIP 4.20, K% 25.2%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 25.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (19 PA): xwOBA 0.194, K% 36.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 30.6%
Jared Jones: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.8%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.387, whiff% 36.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (4 PA): xwOBA 0.355, K% 25.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 25.0%
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 101)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.77 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.79
NRFI rate: Kai-Wei Teng: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 19-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 9-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.591 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +2.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +6.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-170) edge -1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -170

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Shota Imanaga: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.9%, BB% 6.6%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 30.9%, BB% 9.5%, whiff% 35.2%
J.T. Ginn: xFIP 4.20, K% 22.8%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (39 PA): xwOBA 0.323, K% 28.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 31.3%
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 100)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.16 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 0.99
Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Shota Imanaga: 70% (10 starts) | J.T. Ginn: 90% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.262 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +132 | implied 43.1% | model edge +10.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -170 | implied 63.0% | model edge -1.2%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 1.5 (-122) edge 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Toronto Blue Jays 1.5 -115 | best price

Checks: –✓✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+21.55/$100
✓ Cover prob 66.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 14.2% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -122 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.01)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 35% (team 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 33% (6 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 97.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0169
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/59 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/31 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 96.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0179
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.275 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .343
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 55/56 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 96.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0172
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.474 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 57/58 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 96.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0185
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 53/54 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/28 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 92 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 92 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 92 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0351
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.216 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/57 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tristan Gray Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Eric Haase Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marcelo Mayer Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Darell Hernaiz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brent Rooker Under 0.5 (-390) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Colby Thomas Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Moisés Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jorge Mateo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sandy León Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — J.C. Escarra Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brice Matthews Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Meyers Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cesar Salazar Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Fernandez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tommy Troy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Freeland Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.495 (21 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/56 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Chapman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0328
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/61 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0339
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/59 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0364
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.280 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/55 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0328
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.493 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .855
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/61 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/34 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.628 (15 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/56 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0500
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.245 (30 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 14 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | OPS .812
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/60 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/28 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0517
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.434 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/58 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 50/53 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/54 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/22 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/60 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0536
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 53/56 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0656
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.172 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 57/61 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.205 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 48/51 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 20/22 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 (-900) diff 86.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 14 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .631
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 56/60 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0847
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (39 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/59 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0820
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.399 (38 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/61 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0877
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.235 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/57 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0727
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/55 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 23/23 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0820
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.526 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/61 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0968
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.501 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/60 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0877
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.449 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/57 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1017
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0847
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.271 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 8 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/59 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-700) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0984
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.187 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/61 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0893
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.385 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .464
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/56 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Miguel Andujar Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1020
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/49 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/57 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.194 (10 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-900) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.107 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 22/27 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.296 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.191 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.396 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/57 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0968
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/62 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1129
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.193 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/62 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1091
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/55 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-550) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.163 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-900) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .481
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/50 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 23/23 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-500) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (10 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-700) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1290
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.396 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/62 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.414 (76 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 48/54 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1290
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/62 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/58 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 62 PA | 13/53 | HR 0 | K% 6.5% | BB% 12.9% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 62 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 55/63 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1167
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.786
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/60 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1452
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 53/62 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 53/62 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1525
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Morris contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/59 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/56 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 20/23 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.501 (70 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 71.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.492 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/60 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.422 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/57 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1458
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 42/48 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/23 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.470 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/57 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 27 PA | 4/26 | HR 0 | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | OPS .339
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/58 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.607 (54 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 49/56 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1356
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.688 (18 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-750) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1475
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.316 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/61 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1702
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (13 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kai-Wei Teng: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 39/47 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/25 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 20/22 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/62 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/55 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 21/27 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-400) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1833
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.238 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/60 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 40/48 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/24 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.295 (13 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/55 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1525
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.615 (34 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 20 PA | 6/19 | HR 1 | K% 5.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/59 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.567 (72 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 48/57 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-550) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1897
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.237 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 47/58 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2167
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.436 (31 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/60 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2063
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/35 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2241
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/58 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2097
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .357
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/62 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2203
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 48/59 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.386 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/62 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Adrian Houser contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Adrian Houser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 42/52 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 21/23 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-700) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2333
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.510 (22 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/60 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 20/28 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-550) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2679
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.245 (20 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Kai-Wei Teng contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/56 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 17/24 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-750) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.463 (10 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Coleman Crow contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 43/54 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/21 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-390) diff 50.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2545
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 43/55 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 23/30 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-650) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryne Nelson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryne Nelson: 14 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .457
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/56 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-550) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2295
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.943 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 48/61 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2131
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.376 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.562 (17 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 20, HR vulnerability 80 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 25 PA | 7/22 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/61 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/34 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 22/27 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2742
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/62 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 21/33 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter HR: 45/62 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2581
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.236 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/62 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-390) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3036
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Slade Cecconi: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/56 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 15/24 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3208
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.741 (22 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/53 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 18/26 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 20/27 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3387
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.387 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.956 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/62 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/31 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 22/31 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.420/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.420/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-285) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | best price

Checks: –✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3966
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.565 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Lucas Giolito contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Lucas Giolito: 26 PA | 6/21 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .947
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/58 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/29 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter HR: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.460/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.460/G <= 0.5 threshold — would have capped at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Lucas Giolito Over 3.5 (-143) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.60K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Lucas Giolito: K/9 6.7, proj 4.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS, recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 9.0% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Lucas Giolito: 95 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .212 | OPS .866
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 22.5%, season 22.4%, active roster 22.4%/8 hitters, BVP 31.6%/95 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/3 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — would have capped at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 17.5 (-152) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -152 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 20.686999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.7 IP (season 6.9 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.7 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.155
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 13.5%, L7 19.5%, season 20.2% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.6%, L7 7.0%, season 8.2% (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.9 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 18.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-152) — break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (-116) edge 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 10.5 -115 | best price

Checks: –✓!––✓ ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Brayan Bello (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs LHP (tough)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-120) edge 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Checks: –✓–––✓ ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Brayan Bello xFIP 4.20
Trevor Rogers xFIP 4.20
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brayan Bello (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP)

⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

GAME BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Total	Over 7.5	+100	47.8%	71.4%	+23.5%	$+42.72	6	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	Total	Over 8.5	-105	48.9%	65.2%	+16.3%	$+27.26	9	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Total	Under 10.5	-116	51.3%	66.9%	+15.6%	$+24.59	9	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5	-135	54.9%	70.1%	+15.2%	$+21.98	9	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	-110	50.1%	65.2%	+15.1%	$+24.44	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (5 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (Total) +23.5%

Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.01)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 35% (team 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

C Over 8.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees (Total) +16.3%

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Carlos Rodón (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Slade Cecconi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 105)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Carlos Rodón small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)

B Under 10.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (Total) +15.6%

Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Brayan Bello (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs LHP (tough)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

B Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Run Line) +15.2%

Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+21.98/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.2% ≥ 5%
✓ Arizona Diamondbacks home RL 67% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -135 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Ryne Nelson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 125 vs LHP (tough)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies (Total) +15.1%

Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Lucas Giolito (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 95)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 0.95
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Lucas Giolito small sample (12 IP) — stats 15% actual / 85% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	8:06 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-108	48.8%	63.2%	+14.4%	$+21.66	1	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	1:36 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-120	51.2%	63.5%	+12.2%	$+16.36	2	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	7:15 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-148	56.1%	67.9%	+11.8%	$+13.72	1	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	2:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-138	54.4%	63.9%	+9.5%	$+10.24	2	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Athletics @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +14.4%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Shota Imanaga xFIP 4.20
J.T. Ginn xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 Total) +12.2%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Brayan Bello xFIP 4.20
Trevor Rogers xFIP 4.20
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brayan Bello (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP)

C Over 3.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 Total) +11.8%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Chris Sale xFIP 4.20
Away SP TBD
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 122 blended 50% (team 104)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 Total) +9.5%

F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Coleman Crow xFIP 4.20
Adrian Houser xFIP 4.20
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Coleman Crow (RHP)
Away SP: Adrian Houser (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

Game	Time (ET)	Away SP	Home SP	Signal Score	Signal	V2 Result
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Trevor Rogers	Brayan Bello	8.2/10	YRFI MODEL	C ALT / DERISK	Bet on DK

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

PLAY YRFI Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox — Score 8.2/10 C ALT / DERISK

Brayan Bello: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.0%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.376, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.506, K% 14.3%, BB% 10.7%, whiff% 21.2%
Trevor Rogers: xFIP 4.20, K% 17.2%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 10.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 20.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.04
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Brayan Bello: 40% (5 starts) | Trevor Rogers: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game YRFI (-0.2)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge -16.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +25.7%

▼ Why no model signal? (8 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Kai-Wei Teng / Jared Jones	4.9 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	+2.4%	Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (19 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| Away SP 1st-inn data partial (4 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Shota Imanaga / J.T. Ginn	4.6 / 7.7	5.4 / 7.7	+10.1%	Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Chris Sale / TBD ⚠ Away SP	4.4 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	-7.4%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -7.4% < 8% required Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Ryne Nelson / Justin Wrobleski	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-3.5%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -3.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	Zack Wheeler / Lucas Giolito	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-10.4%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (25 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| Away SP 1st-inn data partial (14 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	Carlos Rodón / Slade Cecconi	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-8.7%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (17 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Andrew Morris / Seth Lugo	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-6.8%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (6 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Coleman Crow / Adrian Houser	2.5 / 7.7	7.5 / 7.7	-20.5%	Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (9 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 159 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=159
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	-	Lucas Giolito (R)	theScore Bet	+200	-	38.4%	31.1%	+7.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Adrian Houser (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.7%	17.1%	+16.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Ryne Nelson (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	32.8%	15.6%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	-	Slade Cecconi (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	32.3%	26.4%	+5.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Coleman Crow (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	31.7%	17.1%	+14.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	Jared Jones (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	31.1%	25.8%	+5.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	-	Lucas Giolito (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	30.9%	20.8%	+10.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	-	Brayan Bello (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.3%	17.9%	+12.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	30.2%	24.6%	+5.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	TBD	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.1%	17.9%	+12.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Ryne Nelson (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	29.6%	17.1%	+12.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	-	Brayan Bello (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.3%	18.8%	+10.5%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	29.0%	17.1%	+11.9%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Ryne Nelson (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	28.9%	18.8%	+10.2%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Shota Imanaga (L)	theScore Bet	+260	-	28.3%	25.8%	+2.5%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	Kai-Wei Teng (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	27.8%	17.9%	+9.9%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Willy Adames	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Coleman Crow (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	27.5%	17.1%	+10.4%	92	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Chris Sale (L)	theScore Bet	+525	-	26.7%	15.0%	+11.7%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Cody Bellinger	New York Yankees	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	-	Slade Cecconi (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	26.7%	17.9%	+8.8%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Shota Imanaga (L)	theScore Bet	+250	-	26.5%	26.4%	+0.1%	88	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	100	86.2%	-626	Jake Bauers, Casey Schmitt, Willy Adames, Brice Turang	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	100	85.5%	-590	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Gavin Sheets, Ty France	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	85.3%	-580	Freddie Freeman, Andy Pages, Ketel Marte, Max Muncy	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	100	85.2%	-577	Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	100	85.0%	-567	Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Michael Massey, Brooks Lee	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| Precip chance 49% -- delay/postponement risk	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	100	85.0%	-566	Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Ian Happ, Brent Rooker	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	100	84.7%	-553	Yordan Alvarez, Endy Rodriguez, Oneil Cruz, Christian Walker	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	100	84.4%	-540	Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	100	84.3%	-536	Matt Olson, Kazuma Okamoto, Michael Harris II, Jorge Mateo	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies (+200) HR chance 38.4% | edge +7.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.397, OPS 0.949, ISO 0.365, TB/G 2.26
Statcast: barrel 23.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.541
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 20/58 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 10.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.04, whiff 21.4%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.947, K% 50.0% (26 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.096, OPS 0.923, ISO 0.372 (166 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (+450) HR chance 33.7% | edge +16.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.192, OPS 0.837, ISO 0.216, TB/G 1.73
Statcast: barrel 12.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/52 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 13.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.368, xERA 5.67, whiff 17.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.873, ISO 0.227 (157 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.478, xwOBA 0.304 (16 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Freddie Freeman — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+500) HR chance 32.8% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.152, OPS 0.830, ISO 0.195, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 11.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.500
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 8/59 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 18.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.04, whiff 22.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.929, K% 5.0% (20 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.038, OPS 0.879, ISO 0.217 (184 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees (+250) HR chance 32.3% | edge +5.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.304, OPS 1.042, ISO 0.343, TB/G 2.36
Statcast: barrel 17.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.563
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/56 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 18.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.62, whiff 21.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 1.057, ISO 0.359 (167 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.370, xwOBA 0.338 (27 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Casey Schmitt — San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (+450) HR chance 31.7% | edge +14.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 0.833, ISO 0.237, TB/G 2.02
Statcast: barrel 14.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.6/112.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.514
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 11/54 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 13.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.04, whiff 16.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.777, ISO 0.249 (157 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.463, xwOBA 0.366 (10 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Strong HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros (+260) HR chance 31.1% | edge +5.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.339, OPS 1.075, ISO 0.333, TB/G 2.35
Statcast: barrel 19.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.6/117.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.744
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 19/62 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 28.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.387, xERA 6.40, whiff 36.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 1.059, ISO 0.310 (196 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.956, xwOBA 0.591 (26 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ High-whiff arsenal

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies (+350) HR chance 30.9% | edge +10.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.230, OPS 0.873, ISO 0.254, TB/G 1.79
Statcast: barrel 14.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.575
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/61 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 10.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.04, whiff 21.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.069, OPS 0.996, ISO 0.311 (159 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.943, xwOBA 0.585 (39 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Gunnar Henderson — Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (+425) HR chance 30.3% | edge +12.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.213, OPS 0.698, ISO 0.208, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 9.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.3/111.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.406
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 12/61 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.376, xERA 5.97, whiff 24.6%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.127, K% 20.0% (25 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.036, OPS 0.669, ISO 0.178 (193 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	+1400	0.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Caleb Durbin	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+900	0.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA)
Jeff McNeil	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+900	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+1000	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Justin Crawford	San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	+1000	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Marco Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+900	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Austin Martin	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+1100	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+550	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+700	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+1200	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Chris Sale	None	1.03	15.7%	44.8%	—	—
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Brayan Bello	Trevor Rogers	0.95	15.6%	44.6%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Kai-Wei Teng	Jared Jones	1.00	15.3%	44.1%	—	—
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Shota Imanaga	J.T. Ginn	1.05	15.0%	43.5%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Andrew Morris	Seth Lugo	0.95	15.0%	43.5%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	Carlos Rodón	Slade Cecconi	1.18	14.8%	43.0%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Ryne Nelson	Justin Wrobleski	1.02	14.7%	42.9%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	Zack Wheeler	Lucas Giolito	1.10	14.5%	42.5%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Coleman Crow	Adrian Houser	1.08	13.8%	41.1%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

17 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays	62.7	65.4	65.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 41% usage)	Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres	58.5	55.0	65.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians	57.3	51.2	66.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	57.3	90.8	14.0	4	Curveball (50% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 36.1%, put-away 34.9%, xwOBA 0.387, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Athletics	55.9	60.7	54.5	5	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Morris	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	54.8	46.4	63.5	6	Sweeper (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates	54.3	56.4	57.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	51.0	54.4	51.5	5	Changeup (34% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	42.0	31.9	52.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 51% usage)	Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	41.7	42.6	39.0	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	41.2	41.0	39.0	5	Sweeper (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryne Nelson	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	38.5	43.0	32.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brayan Bello	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	36.4	51.0	19.5	6	Cutter (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.376, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Lucas Giolito	San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	35.5	35.5	32.5	4	Slider (25% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 9.0%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	35.0	36.8	33.5	8	Cutter (23% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Adrian Houser	San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	31.0	30.8	23.5	5	Changeup (31% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 12.3%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Coleman Crow	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	29.5	26.4	32.5	5	Curveball (25% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 16.3%, put-away 10.2%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

17 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Ryne Nelson	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	18.9%	6.7	5.4	5.7	112	deep	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.8%	6.0	5.9	5.9	101	deep	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	30.3%	6.4	6.1	6.2	107	deep	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	L	17.2%	3.7	4.8	4.6	62	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start
Brayan Bello	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.0%	6.0	8.0	7.1	101	deep	full	19.50	80.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Athletics	L	22.9%	5.6	5.8	6.0	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	R	19.7%	5.1	5.1	5.1	86	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.4%
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	25.2%	4.2	8.4	6.5	70	short	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.7%	5.4	5.9	5.8	91	normal	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	18.0%	6.4	6.9	6.7	107	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Coleman Crow	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	R	18.5%	4.7	4.7	5.3	79	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Andrew Morris	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	23.3%	1.0	24.1	6.3	17	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians	L	23.6%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres	R	22.8%	6.4	6.2	6.1	107	deep	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	R	22.8%	-	4.1	5.6	94	short	full	14.00	86.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.1 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Lucas Giolito	San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	17.1%	4.1	4.1	5.0	69	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Adrian Houser	San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	16.4%	4.9	5.1	5.1	82	short	full	23.50	76.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Carlos Rodon	Carlos Rodon Under	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	17.5	13.1	-4.4	25.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	77	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: DK agrees \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Ryne Nelson	Ryne Nelson Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	18.5	19.0	0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	19.0	0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	20.7	3.2	18.2%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	6.7	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

140 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Ben Rice	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.77	1.12	0.82	0.82	2.86 / Over	0.35	season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Kurtz	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.64	1.03	0.77	0.85	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yordan Alvarez	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.60	1.20	0.66	0.75	3.15 / Over	0.40	season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Shea Langeliers	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.60	1.16	0.80	0.65	2.35 / Over	0.35	season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.58	1.03	0.87	0.68	2.77 / Over	0.35	season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.56	1.06	0.75	0.75	2.55 / Over	0.35	season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ildemaro Vargas	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.50	1.11	0.62	0.77	2.34 / Over	0.35	season_games=54,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
William Contreras	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.49	1.18	0.60	0.72	2.69 / Over	0.35	season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ketel Marte	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.45	1.03	0.71	0.71	2.40 / Over	0.35	season_games=57,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Byron Buxton	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.43	1.08	0.80	0.55	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=53,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Bauers	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.40	0.99	0.65	0.76	2.58 / Over	0.35	season_games=52,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.39	0.97	0.68	0.73	2.16 / Over	0.35	season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.36	1.06	0.64	0.66	2.53 / Over	0.40	season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Corbin Carroll	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.34	1.05	0.73	0.56	2.28 / Over	0.35	season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.32	1.07	0.59	0.66	2.51 / Over	0.35	season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Christian Walker	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.32	0.96	0.60	0.76	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Cody Bellinger	Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.31	1.00	0.62	0.70	2.41 / Over	0.35	season_games=60,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ian Happ	Athletics @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.31	0.88	0.79	0.64	2.04 / Over	0.35	season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan O'Hearn	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.31	1.03	0.62	0.66	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.30	1.12	0.53	0.66	2.43 / Over	0.35	season_games=54,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jarren Duran	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.25	0.90	0.65	0.69	1.95 / Over	0.35	season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.24	1.28	0.54	0.42	2.40 / Over	0.35	season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.24	1.15	0.55	0.53	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.23	1.03	0.54	0.66	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=58,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.22	0.94	0.65	0.63	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=62,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes