| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 66W–61L–0P | 52% | -9.30 u | Last 14 days • 127 settled |
| Grade A | 25W–19L–0P | 57% | -0.82 u | |
| Grade B | 41W–42L–0P | 49% | -8.48 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 507W–486L–7P | 51% | -76.28 u | All-time • 1000 settled |
| Grade A | 110W–84L–0P | 57% | -1.72 u | |
| Grade B | 397W–402L–7P | 50% | -74.56 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | K Prop | Jacob deGrom | 7.5 | -121 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Jacob deGrom: 3.0 (line 7.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 197 | 54% | -9.67u | 42 | 57% | -0.49u | 107 | 59% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 117 | 62% | +12.20u | 34 | 53% | +0.60u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 80 | 54% | +0.04u | 23 | 48% | -4.19u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 20 | 45% | -3.23u | 11 | 27% | -5.69u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 14 | 86% | +2.82u | 1 | 100% | +0.36u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Component | Status | Current Usage | Recommendation Impact | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 23 candidate(s); season N 197, 14d N 42 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 7 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 10 candidate(s); season N 117, 14d N 34 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 23 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 235 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 0 | No actionable recommendations. | 🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 116 candidate(s); season N 20, 14d N 11 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 4 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 4 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 4 candidate(s); season N 80, 14d N 23 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Hits Runs RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| PitcherAssessment | LIVE | Shared pitcher context; 32 starter assessment(s) emitted. | Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere. | Monitor assessment quality and data gaps. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | LIVE | Free public-data diagnostics; 32/32 assessment(s) scored. | Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations. | Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation. |
| HRR Component Research | ⛔ PAUSED | Shadow component research; 235 candidate(s) emitted. | No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused. | Validate component record before unpausing HRR. |
| Player Context | LIVE | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics. | Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes. | Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them. |
| AI Review | OFF | Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds. | Use for review notes after the model output is generated. |
This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant: 627 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant 1st-inn: 255 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 136 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitcher arsenal: 613 pitcher(s), 2631 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter pitch-type profiles: 463 player(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Handedness: 32 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates |
| ◴ | LATE DATA | Non-blocking | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 32 SP matchup(s), 1384 career PA |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted |
| ◴ | LATE DATA | Non-blocking | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Athletics |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Line movement: 2156 market side(s) checked | 40 opening snapshot(s) created | 770 with movement |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ℹ | PARTIAL | Non-blocking | F5: 16 game(s) fetched | 0 with ML odds | 16 with total odds | 4 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HRR research: 235 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | No-HR model: 16 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR layers: batter Statcast 506 | batter bats 402 | batter hand splits 172 | pitcher HR splits 72 | batter pitch-type 463 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR model: 275 batter(s) scored | 16 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:11 PM | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+142) | +1.5 (-172) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-195) | -1.5 (+160) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | +129 | -156 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | -157 | +130 | -1.5 (+118) | +1.5 (-142) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | -101 | -120 | -1.5 (+154) | +1.5 (-188) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | +104 | -126 | +1.5 (-199) | -1.5 (+163) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | +162 | -198 | +1.5 (-132) | -1.5 (+109) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | +158 | -193 | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+104) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+162) | +1.5 (-197) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 4:11 PM | -137 | +114 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | -103 | -117 | -1.5 (+155) | +1.5 (-189) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+136) | +1.5 (-165) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:16 PM | -123 | +102 | -1.5 (+129) | +1.5 (-156) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+150) | +1.5 (-182) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 10:06 PM | -142 | +118 | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | +148 | -180 | +1.5 (-144) | -1.5 (+119) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
No Grade A plays today.
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -103 | 48.5% | 72.7% | +24.2% | $+43.26 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -120 | 52.1% | 75.7% | +23.7% | $+38.86 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -114 | 51.0% | 72.9% | +21.9% | $+36.86 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -116 | 51.3% | 66.5% | +15.2% | $+23.90 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | 10:11 PM | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | -135 | 54.0% | 65.1% | +11.2% | $+13.34 | 2 | Bet on DK |
| C | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | 2:21 PM | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | -146 | 55.7% | 65.6% | +9.8% | $+10.45 | 3 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | 4:06 PM | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | -146 | 55.7% | 65.1% | +9.4% | $+9.71 | 3 | Bet on DK |
| C | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (F5) | 1:36 PM | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | -128 | 52.6% | 61.0% | +8.4% | $+8.71 | 2 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | Max Meyer / Freddy Peralta | 5.4 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +5.5% | Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 5.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 10:06 PM | Walbert Ureña / Nathan Eovaldi | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +3.2% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 3.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | Jovani Morán / Taj Bradley | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +1.5% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (12 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 4:11 PM | Stephen Kolek / George Kirby | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +4.5% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 4.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (11 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | Ryan Weathers / Drew Rasmussen | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.4 / 7.7 | -0.1% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | Patrick Corbin / Paul Skenes | 4.6 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | -5.0% | Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Lucas Giolito / J.T. Ginn | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | -1.9% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -1.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | Colin Rea / Kai-Wei Teng | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | -6.9% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | Grant Holmes / Jake Irvin | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | +1.6% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | Zack Wheeler / Slade Cecconi | 4.3 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | -11.1% | Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (18 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | Zac Gallen / Michael Lorenzen ⚠ Away SP | 4.2 / 7.7 | 4.6 / 7.7 | -0.0% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -0.0% < 8% required Away SP (Michael Lorenzen) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | Chase Petty / Kyle Leahy | 3.6 / 7.7 | 5.9 / 7.7 | -10.1% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | Chase Petty / Kyle Leahy | 3.6 / 7.7 | 5.9 / 7.7 | -7.1% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -7.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | Adrian Houser / Bryan Hudson | 3.4 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -17.8% | Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -17.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (7 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:16 PM | Robert Gasser / Roki Sasaki | 2.8 / 7.7 | 6.7 / 7.7 | -17.6% | Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -17.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (7 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | Brandon Young / Framber Valdez | 2.4 / 7.7 | 7.1 / 7.7 | -28.7% | Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -28.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | - | Slade Cecconi (R) | theScore Bet | +210 | - | 42.0% | 30.1% | +11.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | - | Colin Rea (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 42.0% | 22.0% | +20.0% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 42.0% | 20.8% | +21.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 42.0% | 17.9% | +24.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Chase Petty (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 42.0% | 23.2% | +18.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Chase Petty (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 42.0% | 18.8% | +23.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | - | Slade Cecconi (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 42.0% | 18.8% | +23.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.9% | 17.1% | +24.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 41.9% | 15.6% | +26.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | - | Jake Irvin (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.9% | 17.9% | +24.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | - | Drew Rasmussen (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.9% | 17.1% | +24.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Chase Petty (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | - | Colin Rea (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.9% | 16.4% | +25.5% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Chase Petty (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.9% | 17.9% | +24.0% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | - | Brandon Young (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.8% | 15.0% | +26.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | - | Adrian Houser (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.8% | 17.1% | +24.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | James Wood | Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | - | Grant Holmes (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.8% | 19.7% | +22.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | - | Patrick Corbin (L) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.8% | 16.4% | +25.4% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | - | Chase Petty (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.8% | 17.9% | +23.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | - | Grant Holmes (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.8% | 15.0% | +26.8% | 99 | - |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | 100 | 88.9% | -804 | Sal Stewart, Jordan Walker, Elly De La Cruz, Alec Burleson | Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | Wind 12 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | Precip chance 69% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | 100 | 88.9% | -804 | Sal Stewart, Jordan Walker, Elly De La Cruz, Alec Burleson | Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | Wind 12 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | Precip chance 69% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:16 PM | 100 | 88.2% | -751 | Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages | American Family Field HR factor 1.08 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | 100 | 87.9% | -727 | Ben Rice, Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Aaron Judge | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | 100 | 87.7% | -713 | Michael Harris II, James Wood, CJ Abrams, Matt Olson | Truist Park HR factor 1.03 | Precip chance 40% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 10:06 PM | 100 | 87.2% | -681 | Jake Burger, Jorge Soler, Zach Neto, Brandon Nimmo | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 4:11 PM | 100 | 87.0% | -670 | Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Michael Massey | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | 100 | 86.7% | -651 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Ian Happ, Michael Conforto | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | 100 | 86.4% | -634 | Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso | Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | 100 | 86.2% | -625 | Hunter Goodman, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, TJ Rumfield | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8% | - |
| Watchlist | Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | 100 | 85.2% | -573 | Byron Buxton, Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, Ryan Kreidler | Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 100 | 84.8% | -556 | Gavin Sheets, Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Zack Gelof | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | 100 | 83.7% | -513 | Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Valenzuela | Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 | - |
| Watchlist | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | 100 | 83.5% | -505 | Juan Soto, Owen Caissie, Liam Hicks, MJ Melendez | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | - |
| Watchlist | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | 100 | 82.5% | -471 | Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Angel Martinez, Kyle Manzardo | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Chapman | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | +700 | 0.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | +1400 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | +1100 | 0.5% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Thin BvP sample (1 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Kyle Karros | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | +1000 | 0.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Luis Arraez | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | +1200 | 0.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | +800 | 0.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | +800 | 0.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | +1000 | 0.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) |
| Ernie Clement | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | +1100 | 0.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (4 PA) |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | +800 | 0.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | Adrian Houser | Bryan Hudson | 0.82 | 18.0% | 48.8% | — | — | |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4:06 PM | Zack Wheeler | Slade Cecconi | 1.10 | 17.5% | 48.0% | — | — | |
| New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | Max Meyer | Freddy Peralta | 0.88 | 16.5% | 46.3% | — | — | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | Patrick Corbin | Paul Skenes | 0.96 | 16.3% | 45.9% | — | — | |
| Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Lucas Giolito | J.T. Ginn | 0.85 | 15.3% | 43.9% | — | — | |
| Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | Jovani Morán | Taj Bradley | 0.95 | 14.9% | 43.2% | — | — | |
| Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:11 PM | Zac Gallen | Michael Lorenzen | 1.02 | 13.8% | 41.1% | — | — | |
| Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | Brandon Young | Framber Valdez | 1.00 | 13.6% | 40.8% | — | — | |
| Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | Colin Rea | Kai-Wei Teng | 1.05 | 13.3% | 40.2% | — | — | |
| Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 4:11 PM | Stephen Kolek | George Kirby | 0.93 | 13.0% | 39.5% | — | — | |
| Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 10:06 PM | Walbert Ureña | Nathan Eovaldi | 0.98 | 12.8% | 39.1% | — | — | |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 4:11 PM | Grant Holmes | Jake Irvin | 1.03 | 12.3% | 38.1% | — | — | |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | Ryan Weathers | Drew Rasmussen | 1.18 | 12.1% | 37.6% | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:16 PM | Robert Gasser | Roki Sasaki | 1.08 | 11.8% | 36.9% | — | — | |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | Chris Paddack | Andre Pallante | 1.15 | 11.1% | 35.4% | — | — | |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:16 PM | Chris Paddack | Andre Pallante | 1.15 | 11.1% | 35.4% | — | — |
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | 72.0 | 58.1 | 92.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.231, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jovani Morán | Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 65.9 | 72.1 | 65.5 | 5 | Changeup (44% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Hudson | Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | 60.7 | 54.3 | 68.5 | 4 | Sinker (27% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 59.6 | 54.4 | 70.0 | 4 | Changeup (33% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Lucas Giolito | San Diego Padres vs Athletics | 57.8 | 34.6 | 84.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (25% whiff, 55% usage) | Savant whiff 16.7%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.247, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 56.7 | 69.8 | 47.0 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | 55.7 | 67.2 | 47.0 | 5 | Sweeper (49% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 24.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians | 54.9 | 56.1 | 60.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | 54.6 | 59.4 | 52.0 | 4 | Curveball (50% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | 54.3 | 65.3 | 47.5 | 5 | Slider (44% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 30.6%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 53.4 | 47.6 | 60.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 53.2 | 59.5 | 51.5 | 4 | Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | 53.2 | 42.2 | 64.5 | 6 | Sweeper (30% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs San Diego Padres | 52.8 | 53.8 | 56.0 | 5 | Changeup (30% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | 51.0 | 51.7 | 53.5 | 5 | Curveball (44% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 50.4 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 6 | Slider (35% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Paddack | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | 48.3 | - | - | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (16% whiff, 34% usage) | arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 48.2 | 53.1 | 45.5 | 6 | Slider (45% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | 47.3 | 59.6 | 31.0 | 3 | Slider (43% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | 42.9 | 43.8 | 40.0 | 5 | Slider (37% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 42.0 | 41.0 | 42.5 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 41.8 | - | - | 7 | Changeup (33% whiff, 21% usage) | arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | 38.7 | 31.4 | 49.0 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 15.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | 38.5 | 50.8 | 24.0 | 6 | Curveball (44% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | 38.4 | 42.4 | 33.0 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 38.1 | 33.7 | 30.0 | 5 | Sinker (30% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 10.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros | 33.9 | 39.7 | 28.0 | 7 | Slider (36% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | 33.2 | 32.3 | 30.0 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 31.2 | 43.9 | 16.5 | 6 | Changeup (53% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox | 29.8 | 31.5 | 21.0 | 5 | Changeup (34% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Corbin | Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 28.0 | 34.7 | 13.5 | 5 | Slider (39% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.388, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Petty | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | 26.8 | 22.6 | 15.5 | 5 | Sweeper (29% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 4.0%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | R | 18.6% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs San Diego Padres | R | 22.4% | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 97 | normal | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | R | 19.8% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | R | 19.2% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Jovani Morán | Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins | L | 31.1% | 1.1 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 18 | short | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros | R | 19.8% | 4.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 72 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Bryan Hudson | Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | L | 17.9% | 1.0 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 17 | short | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Chase Petty | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 21.3% | - | 5.2 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 15.50 | 84.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Chris Paddack | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+savant_quality+hand | pitcher stats fallback |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 19.4% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 33.00 | 67.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+savant_quality+hand | pitcher stats fallback |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 20.1% | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | R | 23.1% | 2.8 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 47 | short | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.6% |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.0% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | R | 20.8% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 21.4% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | R | 26.3% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 22.1% | - | 4.0 | 5.6 | 94 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 4.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | R | 24.2% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | R | 22.4% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 27.8% | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 96 | normal | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.7% |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 24.0% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.4%, low-K contact opponent 19.8% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 29.8% | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 92.00 | 8.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Lucas Giolito | San Diego Padres vs Athletics | R | 22.0% | - | 5.0 | 5.7 | 95 | short | full | 84.00 | 16.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 5.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox | R | 15.2% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 21.00 | 79.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | R | 20.9% | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 96 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 21.2% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 18.6% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | 16.50 | 83.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | R | 22.2% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.8% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.2% | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Patrick Corbin | Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 16.5% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 13.50 | 86.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 23.8% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 74 | short | full | 24.00 | 76.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Zac Gallen Under | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 13.4 | -4.1 | C | PASS | research | short | 4.8 | 76 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 18.5 | 20.2 | 1.7 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.1 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree |
| Freddy Peralta | Freddy Peralta Under | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.4 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 18.5 | 19.4 | 0.9 | D | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min |
| Colin Rea | Colin Rea Under | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | D | PASS | research | short | 6.0 | 72 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 18.5 | 19.2 | 0.7 | D | PASS | research | normal | 6.1 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min |
| JT Ginn | JT Ginn Over | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | D | PASS | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.76 | 1.28 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 2.56 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brice Turang | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Over 1.5 | 2.75 | 1.11 | 0.94 | 0.70 | 2.96 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.73 | 1.10 | 0.69 | 0.94 | 2.67 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Elly De La Cruz | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Over 1.5 | 2.69 | 1.16 | 0.81 | 0.72 | 2.66 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| William Contreras | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 1.25 | 0.65 | 0.71 | 2.68 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.58 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 2.79 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=52,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 1.06 | 0.56 | 0.88 | 2.77 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Jake Bauers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 1.07 | 0.68 | 0.75 | 2.70 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 2.49 | 1.23 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 2.43 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Sal Stewart | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 2.21 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.45 | 1.47 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 2.62 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | Over 1.5 | 2.43 | 1.10 | 0.77 | 0.57 | 2.25 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Teoscar Hernandez | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Over 1.5 | 2.42 | 1.32 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 2.36 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | Over 1.5 | 2.38 | 1.11 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 2.79 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Victor Scott II | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 1.25 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 2.23 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 0.89 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 2.72 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ozzie Albies | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 1.07 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 2.34 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=52,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | Over 1.5 | 2.31 | 1.07 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 2.84 / Over | 0.40 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Over 1.5 | 2.31 | 0.92 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 2.15 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 0.96 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 2.26 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.29 | 1.08 | 0.66 | 0.55 | 2.22 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Otto Lopez | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.27 | 1.33 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 2.22 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ben Rice | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 1.01 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 2.37 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 2.19 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.61 | 2.61 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.19 | 1.12 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 2.62 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=52,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Market Trust Tiers | Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers. |
| Market Promotion Criteria | The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted. |
| Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact | Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed. |
| Data Readiness | Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays. |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ TOP PICK | Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion. |
| ✅ Best Play | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| 👀 Strong Watch | Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick. |
| 🔬 Research Lead | Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears. |
| ⛔ Paused Signal | Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable. |
Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.
| Stage | Recommendation behavior | Evidence needed |
|---|---|---|
| Trusted | Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output. | Continue passing season and recent market-health checks. |
| Watch | Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted. | Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance. |
| Research | Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears. | Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation. |
| Paused | Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations. | A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research. |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.
| Usage type | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Active recommendation market | Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules. |
| Held / gated market | Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears. |
| Shadow research | Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations. |
| Diagnostic-only source | Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them. |
| Component | Purpose | Recommendation impact today |
|---|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. | Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch. | Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason. | Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates. |
| HRR Component Research | Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes. | Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold. |
| Player Context | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools. | Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context. |
| AI Review | Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status. |
Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.
| State | Impact | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| READY | Available | The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section. |
| LATE DATA | Non-blocking | The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires. |
| PARTIAL | Non-blocking | The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run. |
| MARKET UNAVAILABLE | Non-blocking | The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally. |
| SOURCE MISSING | Non-blocking unless marked otherwise | The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk. |
| LIMITED | Non-blocking | The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated. |
| BLOCKING | Action needed | A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty. |
The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.
| State | How it is used |
|---|---|
| Pre-lineup | Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data. |
| Confirmed lineup | Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates. |
| No roster coverage | The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data. |
| Artifact | Use it for |
|---|---|
| Main HTML report | Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide. |
| Full audit HTML | Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds. |
| Audit JSON | Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates. |
| Performance report | Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping. |
| Tracker CSV | Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.