| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81W–73L–0P | 53% | -9.52 u | Last 14 days • 154 settled |
| Grade A | 32W–20L–0P | 62% | +3.36 u | |
| Grade B | 49W–53L–0P | 48% | -12.88 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 504W–482L–7P | 51% | -74.24 u | All-time • 993 settled |
| Grade A | 110W–83L–0P | 57% | -0.72 u | |
| Grade B | 394W–399L–7P | 50% | -73.52 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 193 | 55% | -7.32u | 47 | 60% | +1.94u | 106 | 59% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 114 | 61% | +11.89u | 35 | 51% | -0.08u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 80 | 54% | +0.04u | 26 | 50% | -3.79u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 20 | 45% | -3.23u | 11 | 27% | -5.69u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 14 | 86% | +2.82u | 1 | 100% | +0.36u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Component | Status | Current Usage | Recommendation Impact | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 7 candidate(s); season N 193, 14d N 47 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 3 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 5 candidate(s); season N 114, 14d N 35 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 7 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 61 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 0 | No actionable recommendations. | 🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 23 candidate(s); season N 20, 14d N 11 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 2 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 2 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 80, 14d N 26 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Hits Runs RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| PitcherAssessment | LIVE | Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted. | Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere. | Monitor assessment quality and data gaps. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | LIVE | Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored. | Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations. | Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation. |
| HRR Component Research | ⛔ PAUSED | Shadow component research; 61 candidate(s) emitted. | No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused. | Validate component record before unpausing HRR. |
| Player Context | LIVE | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics. | Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes. | Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them. |
| AI Review | OFF | Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds. | Use for review notes after the model output is generated. |
This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant: 623 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant 1st-inn: 254 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 131 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitcher arsenal: 613 pitcher(s), 2631 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter pitch-type profiles: 463 player(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Lineups confirmed: 27 team(s), 243 player(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 945 career PA |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Lineup batter handedness: 243 player(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Umpires confirmed: 14 game(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Boston Red Sox, Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Line movement: 728 market side(s) checked | 54 opening snapshot(s) created | 576 with movement |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ✓ | READY | Available | F5: 4 game(s) fetched | 4 with ML odds | 4 with total odds | 2 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HRR research: 61 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | No-HR model: 4 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 4 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR layers: batter Statcast 506 | batter bats 404 | batter hand splits 171 | pitcher HR splits 78 | batter pitch-type 463 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR model: 70 batter(s) scored | 4 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | -163 | +135 | -1.5 (+104) | +1.5 (-125) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +187 | -230 | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-111) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | +104 | -126 | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+168) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | -114 | -105 | -1.5 (+153) | +1.5 (-186) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 7.5 | -121 | BetOnline Over 7.5 -110 | best price | 38.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -112 | 50.5% | 67.2% | +16.6% | $+27.11 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -114 | 51.0% | 67.0% | +16.0% | $+25.83 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants (F5) | 10:16 PM | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | -130 | 53.1% | 62.1% | +9.0% | $+9.88 | 5 | Bet on DK |
| C | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (F5) | 9:39 PM | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | -140 | 54.8% | 63.6% | +8.8% | $+9.07 | 5 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | Trevor McDonald / Davis Martin | 5.0 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | -0.7% | Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (12 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Grayson Rodriguez / Jacob deGrom ⚠ Home SP | 4.4 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | -8.2% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -8.2% < 8% required Home SP (Grayson Rodriguez) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Walker Buehler / Jeffrey Springs | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -10.1% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.1% < 8% required |
| Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Michael Soroka / Tomoyuki Sugano | 3.2 / 7.7 | 6.5 / 7.7 | -12.2% | Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.2% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 1 | Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.4% | 20.8% | +20.6% | 99 | - |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 2 | Jacob deGrom (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 40.5% | 20.8% | +19.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 2 | Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 40.1% | 20.8% | +19.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Jake Burger | Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 5 | Grayson Rodriguez (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 38.3% | 17.1% | +21.2% | 99 | - |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Jorge Soler | Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 4 | Jacob deGrom (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 38.3% | 16.4% | +21.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | 4 | Trevor McDonald (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 37.6% | 15.6% | +21.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 3 | Walker Buehler (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 37.4% | 19.7% | +17.6% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 2 | Walker Buehler (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 36.4% | 23.2% | +13.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | 2 | Trevor McDonald (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 36.0% | 19.7% | +16.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Nolan Arenado | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 4 | Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 35.5% | 15.0% | +20.5% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | 3 | Davis Martin (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 34.3% | 11.7% | +22.5% | 99 | - |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 1 | Jacob deGrom (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 32.7% | 16.4% | +16.4% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Michael Soroka (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 30.3% | 18.8% | +11.5% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | 3 | Trevor McDonald (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 30.1% | 14.3% | +15.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Gavin Sheets | San Diego Padres | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 3 | Jeffrey Springs (L) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 29.7% | 14.3% | +15.4% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Michael Soroka (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 26.2% | 19.7% | +6.5% | 87 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 5 | Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 22.6% | 9.4% | +13.2% | 75 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 7 | Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 21.2% | 11.7% | +9.4% | 70 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 4 | Jeffrey Springs (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 18.5% | 17.1% | +1.4% | 62 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Ezequiel Duran | Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 4 | Grayson Rodriguez (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 18.2% | 11.7% | +6.5% | 61 | - |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 91.2% | -1042 | Mike Trout, Jake Burger, Jorge Soler, Zach Neto | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | 100 | 89.3% | -834 | Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Casey Schmitt, Miguel Vargas | Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 100 | 88.3% | -758 | Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado, Mickey Moniak | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 100 | 86.1% | -618 | Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Gavin Sheets, Manny Machado | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9% | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Chapman | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | +700 | 0.4% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Kyle Karros | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +1100 | 0.4% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +900 | 0.4% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Troy Johnston | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +900 | 0.8% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | +1100 | 0.9% | Low lineup spot (8) | Low season HR rate | Thin batter pitch-type sample (5 PA) |
| Luis Arraez | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | +1200 | 1.0% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs |
| Chase Meidroth | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | +1200 | 1.1% | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Andrew Benintendi | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | +900 | 1.6% | Below HR chance tier |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +700 | 1.6% | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Nolan Schanuel | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | +900 | 2.2% | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Walker Buehler | Jeffrey Springs | 0.85 | 13.9% | 41.4% | 7.0% | +6.9% | |
| Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Michael Soroka | Tomoyuki Sugano | 1.02 | 11.6% | 36.7% | 8.6% | +3.0% | |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | Trevor McDonald | Davis Martin | 0.82 | 10.7% | 34.6% | 11.8% | -1.1% | |
| Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Grayson Rodriguez | Jacob deGrom | 0.98 | 8.8% | 30.1% | 6.8% | +1.9% |
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians | 69.2 | 71.8 | 74.5 | 3 | Changeup (49% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 26.7%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 68.2 | 75.5 | 65.5 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 33.9%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.5 | 62.6 | 70.5 | 4 | Changeup (30% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 25.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 64.6 | 51.4 | 82.5 | 5 | Curveball (44% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.250, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 58.4 | 54.1 | 68.5 | 5 | Slider (34% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | 56.8 | 48.1 | 67.5 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | 55.7 | 61.9 | 55.5 | 6 | Slider (53% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tobias Myers | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 55.7 | 43.7 | 68.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.3 | 52.2 | 61.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox | 54.6 | 64.3 | 53.0 | 4 | Changeup (43% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 27.2%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | 54.2 | 69.3 | 42.0 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs San Diego Padres | 52.2 | 47.5 | 57.0 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | 51.0 | 59.0 | 46.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Richard Lovelady | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | 51.0 | 63.3 | 40.5 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 26.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Paddack | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | 48.3 | - | - | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (16% whiff, 34% usage) | arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | 46.3 | 63.2 | 34.0 | 6 | Curveball (50% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | 46.0 | 60.3 | 31.5 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Keegan Akin | Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | 44.6 | - | - | 3 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 54% usage) | arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing |
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | 44.5 | 55.0 | 36.0 | 5 | Slurve (37% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 42.1 | 37.8 | 51.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jameson Taillon | Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros | 41.1 | 52.1 | 31.0 | 6 | Changeup (31% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 40.9 | 47.9 | 31.5 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | 40.1 | 51.5 | 26.0 | 6 | Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | 38.8 | 42.8 | 33.5 | 6 | Changeup (26% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | 38.7 | 26.2 | 51.0 | 7 | Slider (20% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Athletics | 34.6 | 34.8 | 35.0 | 7 | Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 31.2 | 43.9 | 16.5 | 6 | Changeup (53% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 27.0 | - | - | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 44% usage) | arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.7 | 27.5 | 2.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (29% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.411, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | R | 24.2% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs San Diego Padres | L | 19.8% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | R | 22.6% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Keegan Akin | Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins | L | 23.8% | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 82.50 | 17.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros | R | 20.2% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | R | 28.5% | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 102 | deep | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Chris Paddack | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+savant_quality+hand | pitcher stats fallback |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 28.3% | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 111 | deep | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 14.1% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 2.00 | 98.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 24.1% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 69 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.5% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 99 | normal | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.6% |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | L | 21.3% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 26.00 | 74.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 16.7% | 6.0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 101 | deep | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | R | 25.0% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 27.7% | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | L | 23.7% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 84 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Tobias Myers | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | R | 20.3% | 1.2 | 29.0 | 6.7 | 20 | short | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.6%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 29.0% | 7.6 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 128 | deep | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.4%, low-K contact opponent 19.8% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 22.2% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 77 | short | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Athletics | R | 20.2% | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox | R | 22.4% | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | R | 24.3% | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 96 | normal | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 18.6% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | 16.50 | 83.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | R | 16.6% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 97 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 28.7% | 6.1 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 21.6% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Richard Lovelady | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | L | 21.7% | 1.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 20 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin | Davis Martin Over | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 20.4 | 2.9 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Over | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back |
| Michael Soroka | Michael Soroka Under | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | D | PASS | research | short | 5.4 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 3.15 | 1.40 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 3.45 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 2.85 | 1.41 | 0.76 | 0.67 | 3.15 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 2.56 | 1.10 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 2.71 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nolan Arenado | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 2.52 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 2.28 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.62 | 2.32 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Josh Jung | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.22 | 1.27 | 0.53 | 0.42 | 2.19 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Casey Schmitt | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 2.21 | 1.15 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 2.15 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Luis Arraez | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 2.17 | 1.35 | 0.49 | 0.33 | 2.03 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 2.15 | 0.84 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 2.27 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Mike Trout | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.11 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.45 | 2.09 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jake Burger | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.09 | 0.95 | 0.40 | 0.74 | 2.11 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Zach Neto | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.01 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 0.39 | 1.93 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.00 | 0.91 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 2.01 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Troy Johnston | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.99 | 1.06 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 2.02 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Jesus Rodriguez | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 1.99 | 1.23 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 2.30 / Over | 0.59 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 1.99 | 0.84 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 2.00 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.98 | 1.02 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 2.07 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brandon Nimmo | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 1.94 | 1.13 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 1.93 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.94 | 1.11 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 1.89 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Carlos Cortes | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 1.74 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Jorge Soler | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 1.89 | 0.78 | 0.45 | 0.66 | 1.83 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nolan Schanuel | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 1.86 | 1.02 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 1.69 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jo Adell | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 1.84 | 0.97 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 1.71 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Xander Bogaerts | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 0.90 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 1.77 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Chase Meidroth | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 0.99 | 0.60 | 0.24 | 1.82 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Market Trust Tiers | Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers. |
| Market Promotion Criteria | The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted. |
| Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact | Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed. |
| Data Readiness | Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays. |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ TOP PICK | Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion. |
| ✅ Best Play | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| 👀 Strong Watch | Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick. |
| 🔬 Research Lead | Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears. |
| ⛔ Paused Signal | Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable. |
Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.
| Stage | Recommendation behavior | Evidence needed |
|---|---|---|
| Trusted | Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output. | Continue passing season and recent market-health checks. |
| Watch | Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted. | Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance. |
| Research | Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears. | Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation. |
| Paused | Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations. | A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research. |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.
| Usage type | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Active recommendation market | Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules. |
| Held / gated market | Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears. |
| Shadow research | Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations. |
| Diagnostic-only source | Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them. |
| Component | Purpose | Recommendation impact today |
|---|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. | Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch. | Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason. | Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates. |
| HRR Component Research | Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes. | Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold. |
| Player Context | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools. | Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context. |
| AI Review | Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status. |
Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.
| State | Impact | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| READY | Available | The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section. |
| LATE DATA | Non-blocking | The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires. |
| PARTIAL | Non-blocking | The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run. |
| MARKET UNAVAILABLE | Non-blocking | The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally. |
| SOURCE MISSING | Non-blocking unless marked otherwise | The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk. |
| LIMITED | Non-blocking | The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated. |
| BLOCKING | Action needed | A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty. |
The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.
| State | How it is used |
|---|---|
| Pre-lineup | Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data. |
| Confirmed lineup | Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates. |
| No roster coverage | The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data. |
| Artifact | Use it for |
|---|---|
| Main HTML report | Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide. |
| Full audit HTML | Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds. |
| Audit JSON | Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates. |
| Performance report | Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping. |
| Tracker CSV | Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.