MLB Bets 2026-05-22

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	81W–73L–0P	53%	-9.52 u	Last 14 days • 154 settled
Grade A	32W–20L–0P	62%	+3.36 u
Grade B	49W–53L–0P	48%	-12.88 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	504W–482L–7P	51%	-74.24 u	All-time • 993 settled
Grade A	110W–83L–0P	57%	-0.72 u
Grade B	394W–399L–7P	50%	-73.52 u

9 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual

MARKET TRUST TIERS

13 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	193	55%	-7.32u	47	60%	+1.94u	106	59%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	114	61%	+11.89u	35	51%	-0.08u	0	-
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	80	54%	+0.04u	26	50%	-3.79u	30	70%
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	20	45%	-3.23u	11	27%	-5.69u	0	-
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	14	86%	+2.82u	1	100%	+0.36u	0	-
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	75	41%	-13.74u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	42	38%	-9.29u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	407	49%	-57.64u	0	-	+0.00u	55	45%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 25 candidate(s); season N 193, 14d N 47	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 9 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 14 candidate(s); season N 114, 14d N 35	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 19 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 220 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 109 candidate(s); season N 20, 14d N 11	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 4 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 candidate(s); season N 80, 14d N 26	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 220 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
AI Review	OFF	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Use for review notes after the model output is generated.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 623 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 254 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 131 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 613 pitcher(s), 2631 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 463 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 2 team(s), 18 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1202 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 18 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 1 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels, Athletics, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2802 market side(s) checked \| 794 opening snapshot(s) created \| 1321 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 220 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 1 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 506 \| batter bats 398 \| batter hand splits 171 \| pitcher HR splits 78 \| batter pitch-type 463 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 262 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+123	-148	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	+101	-122	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+153	-186	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 6.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-161)	-1.5 (+133)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+178	-219	+1.5 (-114)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-119	-102	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-110	-109	-1.5 (+148)	+1.5 (-180)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (-101)	+1.5 (-120)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+178	-218	+1.5 (-117)	-1.5 (-103)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+109	-132	+1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 2 Grade B | 1017 Pass | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (2 play(s))

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (-120) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -120 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 33.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.53K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.9, proj 6.0K over 6.3 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 39.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, L7 17.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.53K, diff 33.9%, books 100%)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (+100) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.9%)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .273 | OPS .879
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.5%, L7 19.1%, season 20.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/8 under 5.5
Line movement: price worsened (odds +109->+100)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Total	Over 7.0	+103	47.0%	82.8%	+35.8%	$+68.13	9	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-104	48.7%	71.7%	+23.0%	$+40.64	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Total	Over 6.5	-117	51.5%	73.0%	+21.5%	$+35.43	9	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	-101	48.0%	69.5%	+21.5%	$+38.37	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +35.8%

[INJ] Ryan Weiss (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.9 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jameson Taillon (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 101)
Houston Astros confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Spencer Arrighetti small sample (36 IP) — stats 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)
Line movement: price improved (odds -112->+103)

C Over 7.5 — Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox (Total) +23.0%

[INJ] John Klein (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cody Laweryson (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Erik Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 0.98
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Payton Tolle small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)
Connor Prielipp small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)
Line movement: price improved (odds -113->-104)

C Over 6.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies (Total) +21.5%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Kyle Backhus (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 8.3 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Gavin Williams (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 70%, bullpen 30%, offense factor 0.98
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect
Cristopher Sánchez elite xFIP (2.66)
Gavin Williams elite xFIP (3.35)
Line movement: toward this side (line 7->6.5, odds -101->-117)

C Over 8.0 — Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (Total) +21.5%

[DTD] Trevor Harrison (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Max Fried (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 13 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect
Home SP (Gerrit Cole) stats unavailable — used league avg
Line movement: price improved (odds -104->-101)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-122	51.6%	71.7%	+20.1%	$+30.47	5	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	7:15 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	+154	37.1%	49.0%	+11.8%	$+24.36	8	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-135	54.0%	65.6%	+11.6%	$+14.11	5	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (3 play(s))

C Over 3.5 — Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +20.1%

[INJ] Ryan Weiss (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Jameson Taillon xFIP 4.52
Spencer Arrighetti xFIP 4.42
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 102 (team 101)
Houston Astros confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jameson Taillon (RHP)
Away SP: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)
Line movement: price improved (odds -140->-122)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 ML) +11.8%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Away SP TBD
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

C Over 3.5 — Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 Total) +11.6%

[INJ] John Klein (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cody Laweryson (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Erik Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 4.05
Connor Prielipp xFIP 4.09
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 0.98
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP)
Line movement: toward this side (line 4.5->3.5, odds +118->-135)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Cristopher Sánchez / Gavin Williams	5.9 / 7.7	3.6 / 7.7	+8.5%	Score 5.9 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Trevor McDonald / Davis Martin	5.6 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+4.4%	Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 4.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (12 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Payton Tolle / Connor Prielipp	5.1 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+0.3%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 0.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (18 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Eury Pérez / Tobias Myers	5.0 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+4.9%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 4.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Grayson Rodriguez / Jacob deGrom ⚠ Home SP	4.7 / 7.7	4.1 / 7.7	-3.5%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -3.5% < 8% required Home SP (Grayson Rodriguez) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Logan Henderson / Justin Wrobleski	4.4 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	-4.0%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (15 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Athletics @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Walker Buehler / Jeffrey Springs	4.3 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	-2.0%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -2.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	Chris Bassitt / Jack Flaherty	4.0 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	-7.4%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Chris Paddack / Kyle Leahy ⚠ Home SP	4.0 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	-6.2%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -6.2% < 8% required Home SP (Chris Paddack) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Kevin Gausman / Bubba Chandler	3.9 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	-13.5%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -13.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Noah Cameron / Logan Gilbert	3.8 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-12.3%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Jameson Taillon / Spencer Arrighetti	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-20.9%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate)
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Michael Soroka / Tomoyuki Sugano	3.5 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-10.0%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Gerrit Cole / Nick Martinez ⚠ Home SP	3.2 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	-12.6%	Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -12.6% < 8% required Home SP (Gerrit Cole) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	TBD / Miles Mikolas ⚠ Home SP ⚠ Away SP	2.8 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	-19.1%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -19.1% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Away SP (Miles Mikolas) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 262 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=262
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	3	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	42.0%	17.9%	+24.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	4	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	42.0%	13.3%	+28.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	42.0%	20.8%	+21.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	41.9%	18.8%	+23.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Nick Martinez (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	41.9%	19.7%	+22.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	41.9%	17.1%	+24.8%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Gavin Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	41.9%	17.9%	+24.0%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Gavin Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	41.9%	28.0%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Chris Paddack (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	41.6%	23.2%	+18.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	41.4%	23.2%	+18.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	41.2%	13.3%	+28.0%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Connor Prielipp (L)	theScore Bet	+350	-	41.1%	20.8%	+20.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	40.9%	20.8%	+20.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	40.9%	23.2%	+17.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	-	Kevin Gausman (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	40.6%	19.7%	+20.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	40.6%	18.8%	+21.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	-	Jack Flaherty (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	40.5%	19.7%	+20.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Chris Paddack (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	40.0%	20.8%	+19.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Noah Cameron (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	40.0%	17.9%	+22.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	-	Jack Flaherty (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	39.9%	18.8%	+21.2%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	93.0%	-1320	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Zach Cole, Ian Happ	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	100	88.8%	-789	Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, James Wood	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	87.6%	-709	Mike Trout, Josh Lowe, Jake Burger, Jorge Soler	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	87.4%	-693	Julio Rodriguez, Salvador Perez, Jac Caglianone, Randy Arozarena	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	87.2%	-681	Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado, Mickey Moniak	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	100	86.2%	-625	Liam Hicks, Mark Vientos, Juan Soto, Xavier Edwards	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	100	85.7%	-600	Brandon Lowe, Kazuma Okamoto, Oneil Cruz, Daulton Varsho	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	100	85.6%	-594	Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| Precip chance 74% -- delay/postponement risk	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	85.3%	-582	Willson Contreras, Byron Buxton, Ryan Kreidler, Wilyer Abreu	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	84.8%	-558	Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	84.1%	-530	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| Wind 11 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	100	83.0%	-488	Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Casey Schmitt, Miguel Vargas	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	100	82.6%	-474	Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| Precip chance 40% -- delay/postponement risk	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	81.8%	-450	Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Aaron Judge	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| Wind 13 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	90	79.0%	-377	Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Brice Turang	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| Wind 11 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.9%, P(U1.5) 53.7%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs (+425) HR chance 42.0% | edge +24.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.294, OPS 1.017, ISO 0.302, TB/G 2.20
Statcast: barrel 17.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.2/117.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.711
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/51 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0741, xFIP 4.70, K% 20.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.353, xERA 5.12, whiff 25.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.012, K% 7.1% (14 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 1.013, ISO 0.291 (151 PA)

Best HR Chance Christian Walker — Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs (+600) HR chance 42.0% | edge +28.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.216, OPS 0.819, ISO 0.234, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/112.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.459
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 11/51 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0741, xFIP 4.70, K% 20.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.353, xERA 5.12, whiff 25.2%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.857, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.847, ISO 0.240 (159 PA)

Best HR Chance Sal Stewart — St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (+350) HR chance 42.0% | edge +21.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.240, OPS 0.856, ISO 0.238, TB/G 1.90
Statcast: barrel 16.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/111.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.537
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 11/50 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0309, xFIP 4.42, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.382, xERA 6.17, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.792, ISO 0.204 (169 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.585, xwOBA 0.412 (13 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Michael Harris II — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+400) HR chance 41.9% | edge +23.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.229, OPS 0.848, ISO 0.226, TB/G 1.83
Statcast: barrel 17.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.9/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.584
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 9/48 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.000, K% 27.3% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 0.916, ISO 0.241 (121 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.526, xwOBA 0.338 (30 PA)
Park HR factor 1.03

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (+375) HR chance 41.9% | edge +22.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.348, OPS 1.029, ISO 0.356, TB/G 2.28
Statcast: barrel 18.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.572
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 16/46 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0131, xFIP 4.23, K% 16.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.312, xERA 3.88, whiff 18.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.081, OPS 1.064, ISO 0.369 (136 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0143

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (+450) HR chance 41.9% | edge +24.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.881, ISO 0.235, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 14.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.0/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.501
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 10/50 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0309, xFIP 4.42, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.382, xERA 6.17, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.852, ISO 0.189 (160 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.476, xwOBA 0.395 (33 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Strong HR Chance Bryce Harper — Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies (+425) HR chance 41.9% | edge +24.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.240, OPS 0.887, ISO 0.261, TB/G 1.90
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.0/112.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.570
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 11/50 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0343, xFIP 3.08, K% 29.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.42, whiff 30.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.069, OPS 0.999, ISO 0.312 (130 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0476

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Strong HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies (+230) HR chance 41.9% | edge +13.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.425, OPS 0.981, ISO 0.394, TB/G 2.36
Statcast: barrel 25.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.4/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.576
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/47 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.43
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0343, xFIP 3.08, K% 29.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.42, whiff 30.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.105, OPS 0.993, ISO 0.415 (133 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0476

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Matt Chapman	Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+800	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+1000	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Kyle Karros	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+1100	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+900	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Caleb Durbin	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+1100	0.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1600	0.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	+700	0.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+900	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+1200	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Jeff McNeil	Athletics @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+1100	1.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (5 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	V2 Result
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Logan Henderson	Justin Wrobleski	1.08	20.9% MODEL SIGNAL	53.7% MODEL SIGNAL	—	—	No HR C PASS U1.5 C PASS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Gerrit Cole	Nick Martinez	1.18	18.2%	49.2%	—	—
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	Chris Bassitt	Jack Flaherty	1.00	17.4%	47.9%	—	—
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Trevor McDonald	Davis Martin	0.82	17.0%	47.1%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Cristopher Sánchez	Gavin Williams	1.10	15.9%	45.1%	—	—
Athletics @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Walker Buehler	Jeffrey Springs	0.85	15.2%	43.8%	—	—
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Payton Tolle	Connor Prielipp	0.95	14.7%	42.8%	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Chris Paddack	Kyle Leahy	1.15	14.4%	42.3%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Kevin Gausman	Bubba Chandler	0.96	14.3%	42.1%	—	—
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Eury Pérez	Tobias Myers	0.88	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Michael Soroka	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.02	12.8%	39.1%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Noah Cameron	Logan Gilbert	0.93	12.6%	38.7%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Grayson Rodriguez	Jacob deGrom	0.98	12.4%	38.2%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	None	Miles Mikolas	1.03	11.2%	35.8%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Jameson Taillon	Spencer Arrighetti	1.05	7.0%	25.7%	12.4%	-5.4%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (20.9%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (53.7%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.563 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.080, SP_z=-0.48)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.621)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Logan Henderson pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.5, xwOBA 0.243, HH% 27.8, mix FF/CH, n=269)
Justin Wrobleski pitch-quality 1.03x (RV/100 +2.1, xwOBA 0.299, HH% 42.9, mix FF/SL, n=720)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.9 IP)
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 2.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.9% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.7%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.08 Temp: 58 F Wind-out: -7.6 mph-eq
Home SP (Logan Henderson): 0.0258 HR/BF Away SP (Justin Wrobleski): 0.0093 HR/BF
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Milwaukee Brewers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians	69.2	71.8	74.5	3	Changeup (49% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 26.7%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	68.2	75.5	65.5	5	Slider (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 33.9%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	65.5	62.6	70.5	4	Changeup (30% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 25.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins	64.6	51.4	82.5	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.250, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox	56.8	48.1	67.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants	55.7	61.9	55.5	6	Slider (53% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tobias Myers	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	55.7	43.7	68.5	4	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates	55.3	52.2	61.5	3	Split-Finger (36% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox	54.6	64.3	53.0	4	Changeup (43% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 27.2%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies	54.2	69.3	42.0	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs San Diego Padres	52.2	47.5	57.0	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	51.0	59.0	46.0	6	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Paddack	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	48.3	-	-	6	4-Seam Fastball (16% whiff, 34% usage)	arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs	46.3	63.2	34.0	6	Curveball (50% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	46.0	60.3	31.5	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	44.5	55.0	36.0	5	Slurve (37% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	42.1	37.8	51.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros	41.1	52.1	31.0	6	Changeup (31% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	40.9	47.9	31.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners	40.1	51.5	26.0	6	Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	39.2	42.3	33.0	6	Curveball (30% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays	38.8	42.8	33.5	6	Changeup (26% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	38.7	26.2	51.0	7	Slider (20% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	35.2	-	-	6	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 26% usage)	arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Athletics	34.6	34.8	35.0	7	Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	31.2	43.9	16.5	6	Changeup (53% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	27.0	-	-	4	4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 44% usage)	arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s), Savant pitcher summary missing
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	17.7	27.5	2.0	7	Split-Finger (29% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.411, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	R	24.2%	5.1	5.4	5.4	86	short	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs San Diego Padres	L	19.8%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	R	18.7%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins	L	24.6%	6.0	6.0	6.0	101	deep	full	82.50	17.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros	R	20.0%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants	R	28.5%	6.1	6.2	6.2	102	deep	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chris Paddack	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+savant_quality+hand	pitcher stats fallback
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	26.5%	6.2	6.1	6.1	104	deep	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	14.1%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	2.00	98.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	23.5%	3.9	4.3	4.2	65	short	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs	R	21.8%	5.9	6.0	5.9	99	normal	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.6%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners	L	19.9%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%, pitcher stats fallback
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	16.1%	6.6	7.2	6.7	111	deep	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	25.0%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	27.4%	4.5	4.5	5.1	76	short	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox	L	25.8%	5.0	5.0	5.3	84	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Tobias Myers	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	23.8%	1.2	29.0	6.7	20	short	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.7%, pitcher stats fallback
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians	L	28.4%	7.1	6.4	6.5	119	deep	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.4%, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	19.9%	4.4	4.7	4.7	74	short	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Athletics	R	20.2%	4.5	4.6	4.7	76	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.4%	6.1	6.3	6.0	102	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	R	23.2%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	18.6%	5.2	5.0	5.1	87	normal	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	R	17.8%	6.2	5.9	6.0	104	deep	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.9%
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	28.7%	6.1	5.6	6.0	102	deep	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.2%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+savant_quality+hand	pitcher stats fallback

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Davis Martin	Davis Martin Over	Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	20.4	2.9	C	PASS	research	deep	6.2	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	20.3	2.8	C	PASS	research	deep	6.1	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x) \| Away back-to-back
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	19.4	1.9	C	PASS	research	deep	6.7	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	⚠ Pitcher outs hook-risk gate: deep-start support: season leash 7.2 IP/GS \| deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start \| hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2% \| deep-start support: assessment deep leash \| hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.2% -- thin Over capped at C
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Over	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	19.1	1.6	C	PASS	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Home back-to-back
Jameson Taillon	Jameson Taillon Under	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	16.1	-1.4	C	PASS	research	normal	5.6	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies	19.5	20.9	1.4	C	PASS	research	deep	6.5	119	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: DK disagrees \| books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree
Michael Soroka	Michael Soroka Under	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.5	-1.0	D	PASS	research	short	5.4	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.6	0.1	D	PASS	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	17.5	-0.0	D	PASS	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

220 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Ildemaro Vargas	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.95	1.39	0.71	0.86	3.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elly De La Cruz	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.77	1.21	0.81	0.76	2.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.66	1.09	0.89	0.68	2.75 / Over	0.35	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.65	1.08	0.68	0.89	2.56 / Over	0.40	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.58	0.98	0.89	0.71	2.49 / Over	0.40	season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Shea Langeliers	Athletics @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.57	1.33	0.69	0.55	3.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.50	1.44	0.53	0.53	2.57 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Nathaniel Lowe	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.45	1.30	0.57	0.57	2.33 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pedro Pages	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.44	1.30	0.57	0.57	2.32 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jake Bauers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.44	1.05	0.66	0.73	2.54 / Over	0.35	season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.44	1.02	0.74	0.68	2.67 / Over	0.35	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.43	1.07	0.71	0.66	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.41	1.19	0.56	0.66	2.71 / Over	0.30	season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.39	1.03	0.54	0.82	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
William Contreras	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.38	1.18	0.58	0.62	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.31	1.06	0.71	0.55	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Victor Scott II	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.31	1.23	0.54	0.54	2.20 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Daylen Lile	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.31	1.08	0.68	0.55	2.24 / Over	0.40	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Nick Kurtz	Athletics @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.31	1.02	0.61	0.68	2.61 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.30	0.92	0.81	0.57	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.29	1.32	0.49	0.49	2.35 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Otto Lopez	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.28	1.33	0.56	0.39	2.02 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.28	0.99	0.60	0.69	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nico Hoerner	Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.26	1.20	0.51	0.56	2.52 / Over	0.30	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.25	1.05	0.71	0.48	2.10 / Over	0.35	season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes