MLB Bets 2026-05-21

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	88W–84L–0P	51%	-15.15 u	Last 14 days • 172 settled
Grade A	32W–24L–0P	57%	-0.64 u
Grade B	56W–60L–0P	48%	-14.51 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	503W–481L–7P	51%	-74.33 u	All-time • 991 settled
Grade A	110W–83L–0P	57%	-0.72 u
Grade B	393W–398L–7P	50%	-73.61 u

5 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-20	K Prop	Jack Leiter	5.5	-130	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jack Leiter: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-20	K Prop	Aaron Nola	5.5	-119	-	WIN	+0.840	Aaron Nola: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-20	K Prop	Mike Burrows	4.5	-146	-	LOSS	-1.000	Mike Burrows: 2.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-20	K Prop	Michael Wacha	4.5	-120	-	WIN	+0.833	Michael Wacha: 8.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

13 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	193	55%	-7.32u	60	60%	+2.82u	106	59%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	113	61%	+10.80u	39	56%	+2.79u	0	-
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	79	54%	+1.04u	28	46%	-5.79u	30	70%
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	20	45%	-3.23u	11	27%	-5.69u	0	-
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	14	86%	+2.82u	1	100%	+0.36u	0	-
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	75	41%	-13.74u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	42	38%	-9.29u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	407	49%	-57.64u	12	33%	-5.02u	55	45%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 12 candidate(s); season N 193, 14d N 60	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 6 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 candidate(s); season N 113, 14d N 39	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 9 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 107 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 12	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 49 candidate(s); season N 20, 14d N 11	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 4 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 candidate(s); season N 79, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 14 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 107 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
AI Review	OFF	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Use for review notes after the model output is generated.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 618 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 252 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 130 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Pitcher arsenal: 609 pitcher(s), 2616 pitch-type profiles
✓	Batter pitch-type profiles: 459 player(s)
✓	Handedness: 14 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Team recent batting: 14 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
⚠	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
⚠	Lineup batter handedness unavailable — K-prop platoon concentration gate limited
✓	BVP context: 14 roster team(s), 182 hitter(s) \| 14 SP matchup(s), 1067 career PA
⚠	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	Rest data: 14 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Athletics
✓	Bullpen data: 14 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	Line movement: 982 market side(s) checked \| 982 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	F5: 0 games fetched — market keys may be unavailable for today's slate
✓	HRR research: 107 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	No-HR model: 7 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 505 \| batter bats 172 \| batter hand splits 172 \| pitcher HR splits 77 \| batter pitch-type 459 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	HR model: 121 batter(s) scored \| 7 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	-103	-117	-1.5 (+160)	+1.5 (-196)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	-131	+108	-1.5 (+131)	+1.5 (-158)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-144)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-109	-110	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+163	-199	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+100)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 1 Grade B | 341 Pass | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (1 play(s))

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (+109) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 (WHIP 1.29, BB% 9.4%)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 94 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .264 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 31.6%, L7 20.3%, season 24.9%, BVP 16.0%/94 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/9 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-114	51.0%	68.7%	+17.7%	$+28.98	9	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	-115	51.1%	67.9%	+16.8%	$+26.90	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Total	Over 7.0	-124	52.9%	68.7%	+15.8%	$+24.12	9	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-114	51.0%	66.5%	+15.6%	$+24.91	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (Total) +17.7%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] William Kempner (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Gusto (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Spencer Strider (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Spencer Strider small sample (14 IP) — stats 17% actual / 83% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 8.0 — Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (Total) +16.8%

[IL] Tommy Nance (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Rafael Sanchez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Lazaro Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brendon Little (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Carlos Rodón (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Braydon Fisher (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Carlos Rodón small sample (8 IP) — stats 10% actual / 90% league avg (regression applied)
Braydon Fisher small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers (Total) +15.8%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ty Madden (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Bailey Horn (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Cold (40F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 0.98
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Cold (40F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry
Casey Mize small sample (37 IP) — stats 46% actual / 54% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals (Total) +15.6%

[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Dustin May (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (7 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Casey Mize / Joey Cantillo	6.0 / 7.7	3.5 / 7.7	+7.2%	Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 7.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	Dustin May / Braxton Ashcraft	5.6 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+3.7%	Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	José Soriano / Luis Severino	5.0 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+3.7%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	Cade Cavalli / David Peterson	4.7 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	-6.9%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara / Spencer Strider	4.5 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	-3.8%	Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -3.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Carlos Rodón / Braydon Fisher	4.4 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	-1.0%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -1.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Eduardo Rodriguez / Zach Agnos	2.5 / 7.7	7.0 / 7.7	-21.9%	Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -21.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 121 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=121
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Luis Severino (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	42.0%	19.7%	+22.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Luis Severino (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	41.8%	15.0%	+26.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Braydon Fisher (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	41.8%	18.8%	+23.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	39.6%	18.8%	+20.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Zach Agnos (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	39.2%	17.1%	+22.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jorge Soler	Los Angeles Angels	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Luis Severino (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	38.7%	15.6%	+23.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	38.7%	18.8%	+19.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Zach Agnos (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	37.3%	17.9%	+19.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	-	Dustin May (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	36.4%	16.4%	+20.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	-	Dustin May (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	35.5%	17.1%	+18.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-	Sandy Alcantara (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	34.7%	17.1%	+17.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Braydon Fisher (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	34.6%	25.8%	+8.8%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	-	Braxton Ashcraft (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	34.0%	15.0%	+19.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nolan Arenado	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Zach Agnos (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	31.4%	13.3%	+18.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	29.5%	17.1%	+12.4%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Jo Adell	Los Angeles Angels	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Luis Severino (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	28.4%	16.4%	+12.0%	95	-
Best HR Chance	Cody Bellinger	New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Braydon Fisher (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	26.2%	15.6%	+10.6%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Mark Vientos	New York Mets	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-	Cade Cavalli (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	26.2%	15.6%	+10.6%	87	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Angel Martinez	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	-	Casey Mize (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	25.4%	10.4%	+14.9%	85	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-	David Peterson (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	25.3%	15.6%	+9.6%	84	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	87.2%	-680	Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Valenzuela	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	86.3%	-629	Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Shea Langeliers, Jorge Soler	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.7%	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	83.9%	-522	Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado, Hunter Goodman	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	100	82.9%	-484	Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	100	82.5%	-470	Mark Vientos, James Wood, Juan Soto, Curtis Mead	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	100	81.0%	-427	Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Dominic Smith	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Pass	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	88	77.3%	-342	Angel Martinez, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez, Jahmai Jones	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| Cold (40F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.6%, P(U1.5) 56.3%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Mike Trout — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+375) HR chance 42.0% | edge +22.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.245, OPS 0.878, ISO 0.249, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 22.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.590
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 11/49 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0300, xFIP 4.38, K% 22.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.48, whiff 22.6%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.556, K% 33.3% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.866, ISO 0.246 (159 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Zach Neto — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+525) HR chance 41.8% | edge +26.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.160, OPS 0.733, ISO 0.184, TB/G 1.58
Statcast: barrel 11.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/107.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.409
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 8/50 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0300, xFIP 4.38, K% 22.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.48, whiff 22.6%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.000, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.684, ISO 0.182 (164 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (+400) HR chance 41.8% | edge +23.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.356, OPS 1.042, ISO 0.365, TB/G 2.31
Statcast: barrel 19.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.586
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 16/45 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0178, xFIP 3.88, K% 23.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.36, whiff 25.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.083, OPS 1.074, ISO 0.379 (133 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.428, xwOBA 0.374 (36 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Shea Langeliers — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+400) HR chance 39.6% | edge +20.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.273, OPS 0.972, ISO 0.256, TB/G 2.36
Statcast: barrel 15.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.593
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 10/44 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.765, K% 25.0% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 0.980, ISO 0.259 (150 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0083
Park HR factor 0.98

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+450) HR chance 39.2% | edge +22.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.156, OPS 0.958, ISO 0.278, TB/G 1.98
Statcast: barrel 14.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/111.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/45 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0241, xFIP 4.71, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.51, whiff 25.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.832, ISO 0.289 (121 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.431, xwOBA 0.352 (15 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Jorge Soler — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+500) HR chance 38.7% | edge +23.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.196, OPS 0.729, ISO 0.213, TB/G 1.57
Statcast: barrel 11.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.3/112.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.382
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 9/46 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0300, xFIP 4.38, K% 22.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.48, whiff 22.6%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.364, K% 45.5% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.732, ISO 0.242 (139 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+400) HR chance 38.7% | edge +19.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.167, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.209, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 16.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.0/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.493
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 8/48 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.873, K% 36.4% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 1.029, ISO 0.268 (148 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0339
Park HR factor 0.98

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Ketel Marte — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+425) HR chance 37.3% | edge +19.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.156, OPS 0.702, ISO 0.178, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 10.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.9/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.470
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/45 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0241, xFIP 4.71, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.51, whiff 25.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.712, ISO 0.205 (133 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.173, xwOBA 0.124 (12 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Masyn Winn	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	+1200	0.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA)
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+1400	0.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold weather 40F
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+800	0.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Kyle Karros	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+1000	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+1000	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Geraldo Perdomo	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+1000	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Jakob Marsee	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+900	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Carson Benge	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	+700	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Brayan Rocchio	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+1100	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold weather 40F
Jeff McNeil	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	+1100	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	V2 Result
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Casey Mize	Joey Cantillo	0.91	22.6% MODEL SIGNAL	56.3% MODEL SIGNAL	—	—	No HR C PASS U1.5 C PASS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara	Spencer Strider	0.88	19.0%	50.5%	—	—
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	Cade Cavalli	David Peterson	1.02	17.6%	48.1%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	1:16 PM	Dustin May	Braxton Ashcraft	0.93	17.1%	47.4%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Eduardo Rodriguez	Zach Agnos	1.02	16.1%	45.5%	—	—
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	José Soriano	Luis Severino	0.98	13.7%	41.0%	—	—
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Carlos Rodón	Braydon Fisher	1.18	12.8%	39.2%	—	—

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.6%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (56.3%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.485 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.090, SP_z=-0.31)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.519)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Casey Mize pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +1.0, xwOBA 0.274, HH% 38.5, mix FF/FS, n=544)
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.2, xwOBA 0.314, HH% 40.9, mix FF/CH, n=840)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Detroit Tigers bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.82, expected pen 3.6 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.96, expected pen 4.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.3%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.91 Temp: 40 F Wind-out: -4.5 mph-eq
Home SP (Casey Mize): 0.0126 HR/BF Away SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0279 HR/BF
Cleveland Guardians Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Detroit Tigers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Cleveland Guardians Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

14 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.4%	5.9	5.9	5.9	99	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Luis Severino	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	R	21.9%	5.9	5.4	6.0	99	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Spencer Strider	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	R	26.5%	4.7	4.7	5.3	79	short	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	19.1%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Zach Agnos	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	15.6%	2.4	-	5.1	40	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	24.8%	5.1	5.3	5.4	86	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	R	25.5%	5.3	5.9	6.0	89	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	17.8%	5.6	6.3	6.2	94	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
David Peterson	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	L	23.7%	3.9	8.6	6.5	65	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	24.1%	3.6	4.0	5.2	60	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	23.9%	6.3	6.1	6.1	106	deep	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	18.3%	5.8	5.4	5.5	97	normal	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	R	21.0%	1.0	26.1	6.4	17	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 12.0%
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	R	24.9%	5.3	4.6	4.8	89	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	20.0	2.5	C	PASS	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Home back-to-back \| Away back-to-back
Dustin May	Dustin May Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	15.4	-2.1	C	PASS	research	normal	5.5	97	season+recent+savant+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only
Luis Severino	Luis Severino Under	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	16.7	-0.8	D	PASS	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	18.5	17.8	-0.7	D	PASS	research	normal	5.9	99	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Under	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	18.5	18.4	-0.1	D	PASS	research	normal	6.2	94	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min
Jose Soriano	Jose Soriano Under	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.5	-0.0	D	PASS	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

107 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Ildemaro Vargas	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.93	1.36	0.72	0.85	2.90 / Over	0.35	season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shea Langeliers	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.64	1.32	0.73	0.59	2.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.63	1.11	0.65	0.87	2.61 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
James Wood	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.54	0.99	0.86	0.69	2.47 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.50	1.03	0.75	0.71	2.70 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.46	1.06	0.65	0.74	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.39	1.10	0.66	0.64	2.80 / Over	0.35	season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.38	1.10	0.64	0.64	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Kurtz	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.35	1.00	0.65	0.70	2.39 / Over	0.35	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Aaron Judge	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.26	0.93	0.75	0.58	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.26	1.35	0.54	0.37	2.07 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Daylen Lile	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.26	1.07	0.65	0.54	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.26	1.01	0.53	0.72	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Cody Bellinger	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.22	0.99	0.59	0.64	2.55 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.20	0.99	0.55	0.66	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	1.08	0.45	0.64	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nolan Arenado	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.14	0.94	0.59	0.60	2.10 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Xavier Edwards	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.13	1.15	0.65	0.33	2.04 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.10	1.04	0.58	0.48	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Liam Hicks	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.10	0.91	0.41	0.78	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Riley Greene	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.08	1.18	0.49	0.41	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.03	0.92	0.66	0.45	1.86 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.03	1.17	0.42	0.44	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ Wetherholt	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.02	0.91	0.66	0.45	1.91 / Over	0.35	season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.01	0.91	0.54	0.56	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, and workload diagnostics.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality diagnostic layer.

Data Readiness States

State	How to read it
check	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
warn	The run can continue, but the affected layer is skipped, degraded, or waiting for later game-day data.
missing/unconfigured	The source is unavailable by configuration or feed state. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
diagnostic-only	The source is displayed for audit/QC but is not allowed to move recommendations yet.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes