MLB Bets 2026-05-20

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	94W–106L–0P	47%	-32.22 u	Last 14 days • 200 settled
Grade A	32W–24L–0P	57%	-0.92 u
Grade B	62W–82L–0P	43%	-31.29 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	500W–477L–7P	51%	-72.70 u	All-time • 984 settled
Grade A	108W–81L–0P	57%	-0.39 u
Grade B	392W–396L–7P	50%	-72.31 u

11 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-19	K Prop	Landen Roupp	4.5	-116	-	LOSS	-1.000	Landen Roupp: 3.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-19	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-139	-	LOSS	-1.000	Emmet Sheehan: 2.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-19	K Prop	Parker Messick	5.5	-139	-	WIN	+0.719	Parker Messick: 6.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-19	K Prop	Nolan McLean	5.5	-143	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nolan McLean: 5.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

13 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	189	55%	-6.99u	62	56%	-1.03u	102	60%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	112	61%	+10.10u	40	57%	+4.07u	0	-
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	77	56%	+3.04u	27	52%	-3.12u	30	70%
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	20	45%	-3.23u	13	31%	-5.88u	0	-
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	14	86%	+2.82u	1	100%	+0.36u	0	-
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	2	50%	-0.09u	0	-
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	75	41%	-13.74u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	42	38%	-9.29u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	407	49%	-57.64u	20	35%	-7.82u	55	45%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 11 candidate(s); season N 189, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 7 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 8 candidate(s); season N 112, 14d N 40	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 8 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 119 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 20	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 54 candidate(s); season N 20, 14d N 13	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 6 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 2 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 candidate(s); season N 77, 14d N 27	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 119 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
AI Review	OFF	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Use for review notes after the model output is generated.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 618 pitcher(s) with metrics
⚠	Savant 1st-inning stats unavailable — NRFI model using season stats only
⚠	Team NRFI streaks unavailable
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 130 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Pitcher arsenal: 609 pitcher(s), 2616 pitch-type profiles
✓	Batter pitch-type profiles: 458 player(s)
✓	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	Lineups confirmed: 28 team(s), 252 player(s)
✓	Lineup batter handedness: 252 player(s)
✓	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1048 career PA
✓	Umpires confirmed: 14 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees
✓	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	Line movement: 1598 market side(s) checked \| 344 opening snapshot(s) created \| 1066 with movement
✓	Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	F5: 9 game(s) fetched \| 9 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	HRR research: 119 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	No-HR model: 9 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 8 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 499 \| batter bats 291 \| batter hand splits 173 \| pitcher HR splits 75 \| batter pitch-type 458 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	HR model: 161 batter(s) scored \| 9 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-193	+158	-1.5 (-112)	+1.5 (-107)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-126	+105	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+161)	+1.5 (-197)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+104	-125	-1.5 (+181)	+1.5 (-222)	O/U 6.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	-193	+158	-1.5 (-108)	+1.5 (-111)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-131	+108	-1.5 (+124)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 3 Grade B | 576 Pass | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (3 play(s))

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-143) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Checks: ✓!!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 (WHIP 1.28, BB% 8.5%)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.3%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed: no recent game-log sample

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — Miami Marlins +1.5 1.5 (-107) edge 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Miami Marlins 1.5 -102 | best price

Checks: –✓✓!–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (28)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] William Kempner (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Gusto (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+33.60/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 19.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -107 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Janson Junk (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 123 vs LHP (tough)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.45)
Line movement: price improved (odds -110->-107)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — San Diego Padres +1.5 1.5 (-111) edge 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig San Diego Padres 1.5 -106 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (24)

[IL] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Jack Dreyer (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Brock Stewart (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.7 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+14.42/$100
✓ Cover prob 60.2% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 9.9% ≥ 5%
- No profile for San Diego Padres — role hit rate + L5 gates skipped
✓ Odds -111 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Vásquez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | opp wRC+ 87 vs RHP (favorable)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 88 (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range
Line movement: price improved (odds -126->-111)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

7 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	Total	Over 6.5	-101	47.9%	76.0%	+28.1%	$+51.33	9	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-107	49.5%	74.6%	+25.2%	$+44.34	9	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.0	-111	50.3%	74.4%	+24.1%	$+41.43	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-101	47.9%	70.8%	+22.8%	$+40.89	9	Bet on DK
C	Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-111	50.3%	70.6%	+20.2%	$+34.14	9	Bet on DK
B	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Run Line	Miami Marlins +1.5	-107	49.5%	69.1%	+19.6%	$+33.60	9	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-112	50.5%	70.0%	+19.4%	$+32.49	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (7 play(s))

C Over 6.5 — Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +28.1%

[IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Carlos Rodriguez (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Kyle Harrison (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 102)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN
Kyle Harrison small sample (38 IP) — stats 47% actual / 53% league avg (regression applied)
Line movement: price improved (odds -110->-101)

C Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (Total) +25.2%

[IL] Tommy Nance (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Rafael Sanchez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Lazaro Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brendon Little (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Trey Yesavage (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 118 (team 104)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 12 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.98)
New York Yankees strong offense (wRC+ 118)
Trey Yesavage small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)
Line movement: toward this side (line 8->7.5, odds -112->-107)

C Over 7.0 — Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (Total) +24.1%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] William Kempner (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Gusto (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Janson Junk (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 123 vs LHP (tough)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.45)
Line movement: toward this side (line 7.5->7, odds -103->-111)

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers (Total) +22.8%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ty Madden (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 7.5
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 111 (team 98)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Line movement: price improved (odds -115->-101)

C Over 7.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Total) +20.2%

[IL] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Erik Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Michael Wacha (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connelly Early (LHP) | opp wRC+ 92 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 98)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range
Line movement: toward this side (line 8->7.5, odds -107->-111)

B Miami Marlins +1.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (Run Line) +19.6%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] William Kempner (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Gusto (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+33.60/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 19.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -107 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Janson Junk (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 123 vs LHP (tough)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.45)
Line movement: price improved (odds -110->-107)

C Over 7.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals (Total) +19.4%

[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 100)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
Line movement: price improved (odds -119->-112)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Miami Marlins	+160	36.2%	46.8%	+10.6%	$+21.79	8	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 ML	San Diego Padres	+165	35.6%	45.7%	+10.1%	$+21.04	8	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Miami Marlins — Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (F5) (F5 ML) +10.6%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] William Kempner (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Gusto (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Janson Junk xFIP 4.09
Chris Sale xFIP 3.45
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Janson Junk (RHP)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

C San Diego Padres — Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 ML) +10.1%

[IL] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Jack Dreyer (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Brock Stewart (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Randy Vásquez xFIP 4.00
Shohei Ohtani xFIP 3.57
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 83 (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 0.97
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Randy Vásquez (RHP)
Away SP: Shohei Ohtani (RHP)
Line movement: price improved (odds +154->+165)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (9 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Cam Schlittler / Trey Yesavage	5.1 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	-1.0%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -1.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	Randy Vásquez / Shohei Ohtani	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	+3.1%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	Edward Cabrera / Kyle Harrison	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	-5.9%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Janson Junk / Chris Sale	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	-6.5%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Michael Wacha / Connelly Early	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-10.5%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	TBD / Tanner Bibee ⚠ Home SP	3.8 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	-11.6%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -11.6% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Zack Littell / Zach Thornton	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-7.1%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Michael McGreevy / Carmen Mlodzinski	3.4 / 7.7	6.6 / 7.7	-18.3%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -18.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Jack Kochanowicz / Aaron Civale	2.8 / 7.7	6.8 / 7.7	-15.0%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -15.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 161 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=161
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Strong HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	1	Zach Thornton (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	42.0%	19.7%	+22.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	6	Edward Cabrera (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	41.7%	14.3%	+27.4%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	2	Edward Cabrera (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	41.7%	10.4%	+31.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	4	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	41.6%	16.4%	+25.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Jack Kochanowicz (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	41.6%	23.2%	+18.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	4	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	41.5%	16.4%	+25.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Aaron Civale (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	41.4%	24.6%	+16.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	2	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	41.3%	18.8%	+22.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Jack Kochanowicz (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	41.1%	22.0%	+19.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	2	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	40.9%	16.4%	+24.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	4	Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	40.8%	15.6%	+25.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	6	Randy Vásquez (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	40.6%	17.9%	+22.8%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	1	Trey Yesavage (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	40.5%	23.2%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Aaron Civale (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	40.0%	17.9%	+22.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Mark Vientos	New York Mets	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	4	Zack Littell (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	39.9%	20.8%	+19.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	5	Randy Vásquez (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	38.5%	16.4%	+22.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Juan Soto	New York Mets	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	3	Zack Littell (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	38.2%	26.4%	+11.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	3	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	37.6%	14.3%	+23.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Starling Marte	Kansas City Royals	Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	7	Connelly Early (L)	theScore Bet	+1100	-	36.3%	7.9%	+28.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	1	Carmen Mlodzinski (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	35.9%	13.3%	+22.6%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	92.9%	-1311	Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Bellinger	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| Wind 12 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	91.7%	-1104	James Wood, Mark Vientos, Juan Soto, Daylen Lile	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	100	89.6%	-867	Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Dominic Smith	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	100	88.2%	-749	Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	86.8%	-657	Willson Contreras, Starling Marte, Elias Diaz, Wilyer Abreu	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	86.3%	-630	Nick Kurtz, Mike Trout, Shea Langeliers, Zach Neto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.7%	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	100	84.6%	-550	Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	83.5%	-508	Dillon Dingler, Angel Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	100	81.5%	-439	Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Strong HR Chance James Wood — New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (+375) HR chance 42.0% | edge +22.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.265, OPS 0.933, ISO 0.275, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 25.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 96.5/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.606
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 13/49 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0388, xFIP 4.05, K% 13.0%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.040, OPS 0.823, ISO 0.233 (75 PA)
Park HR factor 1.02
Night game start 6:46 PM ET

⚠ Wind 12 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN

Strong HR Chance Jake Bauers — Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (+550) HR chance 41.7% | edge +27.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.175, OPS 0.870, ISO 0.215, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 13.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.2/112.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.508
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 7/40 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0365, xFIP 3.88, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.39, whiff 27.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.867, ISO 0.205 (121 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0328

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

⚠ Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN

Strong HR Chance Brice Turang — Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (+800) HR chance 41.7% | edge +31.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.163, OPS 0.910, ISO 0.205, TB/G 1.86
Statcast: barrel 9.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/109.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.494
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/43 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0365, xFIP 3.88, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.39, whiff 27.2%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.286, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 1.057, ISO 0.271 (138 PA)

⚠ Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals (+475) HR chance 41.6% | edge +25.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.217, OPS 0.840, ISO 0.221, TB/G 1.70
Statcast: barrel 16.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.8/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.529
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/46 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0285, xFIP 4.30, K% 21.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.315, xERA 3.96, whiff 23.8%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 0.768, K% 25.0% (24 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.773, ISO 0.182 (143 PA)

Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+300) HR chance 41.6% | edge +18.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.170, OPS 0.919, ISO 0.212, TB/G 1.77
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.8/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.495
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 8/47 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0228, xFIP 4.66, K% 15.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.365, xERA 5.53, whiff 23.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 1.022, ISO 0.273 (144 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0085

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Oneil Cruz — Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals (+475) HR chance 41.5% | edge +25.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.217, OPS 0.796, ISO 0.202, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 17.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 96.0/119.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.489
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 9/46 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0273, xFIP 3.78, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.372, xERA 5.79, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.767, ISO 0.192 (146 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0325

Best HR Chance Mike Trout — Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (+275) HR chance 41.4% | edge +16.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.250, OPS 0.886, ISO 0.253, TB/G 1.73
Statcast: barrel 21.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.578
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 11/48 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0302, xFIP 4.66, K% 17.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.39, whiff 18.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.000, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.882, ISO 0.252 (155 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Brandon Lowe — Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals (+400) HR chance 41.3% | edge +22.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.286, OPS 0.892, ISO 0.294, TB/G 2.12
Statcast: barrel 13.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.525
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 9/42 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0273, xFIP 3.78, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.372, xERA 5.79, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 1.011, ISO 0.342 (134 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0325

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Masyn Winn	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+1200	0.5%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+1400	0.6%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Jeff McNeil	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	+1100	0.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Jackson Merrill	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	+550	1.3%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+1100	1.5%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Connor Norby	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+900	1.7%	Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+900	1.8%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN
Mauricio Dubon	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+1000	1.8%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA)
Nico Hoerner	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+1000	1.9%	Elite strikeout pitcher \| Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+1100	1.9%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	Edward Cabrera	Kyle Harrison	1.05	18.6%	49.8%	15.5%	+3.0%
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	None	Tanner Bibee	0.91	16.5%	46.1%	11.6%	+4.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	Randy Vásquez	Shohei Ohtani	0.85	15.4%	44.2%	7.5%	+7.9%
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Jack Kochanowicz	Aaron Civale	0.98	13.7%	40.9%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Michael Wacha	Connelly Early	0.93	13.2%	39.9%	11.8%	+1.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Michael McGreevy	Carmen Mlodzinski	0.93	11.8%	37.0%	12.6%	-0.8%
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Janson Junk	Chris Sale	0.88	10.3%	33.8%	10.6%	-0.3%
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Zack Littell	Zach Thornton	1.02	8.3%	29.0%	5.9%	+2.4%
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Cam Schlittler	Trey Yesavage	1.18	7.1%	25.8%	5.1%	+2.0%

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	R	17.5%	6.2	5.8	5.9	104	deep	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Aaron Civale	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	R	18.5%	5.2	5.1	5.2	87	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	L	29.4%	6.6	6.1	6.2	111	deep	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	20.0%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Connelly Early	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	L	22.3%	5.5	5.2	5.3	92	normal	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Edward Cabrera	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.3%	5.5	5.7	5.6	92	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners	R	21.7%	5.1	6.9	6.2	86	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	17.6%	5.5	5.1	5.2	92	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	R	21.4%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%, pitcher stats fallback
Mike Burrows	Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.3%	5.8	5.6	5.6	97	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	R	20.6%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Jack Kochanowicz	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	R	15.9%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	R	28.9%	6.4	6.3	6.2	107	deep	full	85.50	14.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	19.3%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	28.5%	4.8	4.8	4.9	80	short	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.7%
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros	R	25.6%	5.8	5.0	6.0	97	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	L	21.8%	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	season+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	27.6%	6.3	6.0	6.1	106	deep	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	R	21.8%	4.5	5.0	5.0	76	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	21.7%	4.7	6.4	6.0	79	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	20.7%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.4%	5.1	5.1	5.2	86	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox	R	25.6%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.8%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	21.50	78.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Steven Matz	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	L	18.9%	5.0	5.3	5.3	84	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Jack Leiter	Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies	R	24.5%	5.7	5.5	5.5	96	normal	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	R	24.2%	4.8	4.8	5.2	80	short	full	93.00	7.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 12.2%
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	R	12.8%	4.3	6.8	6.0	72	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	17.5	20.6	3.1	C	PASS	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x) \| Home back-to-back \| Away back-to-back
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	15.2	-2.3	C	PASS	research	normal	5.2	91	season+recent+savant+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.5	2.0	C	PASS	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home back-to-back \| Away back-to-back
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.5	2.0	C	PASS	research	deep	6.2	111	season+recent+savant+hand	Books Disagree: DK disagrees \| books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
Shohei Ohtani	Shohei Ohtani Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	18.5	20.1	1.6	C	PASS	research	deep	6.2	107	season+recent+savant+hand	Books Disagree: DK disagrees \| books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree
Janson Junk	Janson Junk Under	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	17.5	16.5	-1.0	D	PASS	research	normal	5.6	92	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.7	-0.8	D	PASS	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

119 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
James Wood	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	3.17	1.11	1.25	0.82	2.67 / Over	0.35	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
CJ Abrams	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.97	1.12	0.76	1.09	2.57 / Over	0.30	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.76	1.24	0.84	0.69	3.20 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.76	1.19	0.96	0.60	2.93 / Over	0.30	season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.73	1.21	0.71	0.81	2.87 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.71	1.14	0.69	0.87	2.64 / Over	0.30	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.69	1.10	0.92	0.68	2.19 / Over	0.35	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Josh Lowe	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.67	1.47	0.61	0.58	2.66 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Alec Burleson	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.53	1.19	0.51	0.83	2.63 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.53	1.11	0.52	0.90	2.74 / Over	0.30	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.50	1.46	0.66	0.38	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Xavier Edwards	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.42	1.28	0.79	0.34	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Teoscar Hernandez	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.41	1.37	0.50	0.55	2.31 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Aaron Judge	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.40	0.96	0.90	0.54	1.98 / Over	0.30	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
JJ Wetherholt	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.38	1.03	0.85	0.50	2.22 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Heriberto Hernandez	Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.38	1.37	0.48	0.53	2.31 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Starling Marte	Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.37	1.38	0.54	0.46	2.19 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Ivan Herrera	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.36	1.36	0.54	0.45	2.25 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
William Contreras	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.35	1.19	0.53	0.64	2.43 / Over	0.30	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Carson Benge	New York Mets @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.33	1.07	0.79	0.47	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Riley Greene	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.30	1.22	0.57	0.52	2.18 / Over	0.30	season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Cody Bellinger	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.29	0.98	0.61	0.70	2.08 / Over	0.30	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.29	1.08	0.72	0.49	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.26	1.30	0.52	0.43	2.50 / Over	0.30	season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.25	0.98	0.61	0.66	2.50 / Over	0.30	season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, and workload diagnostics.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality diagnostic layer.

Data Readiness States

State	How to read it
check	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
warn	The run can continue, but the affected layer is skipped, degraded, or waiting for later game-day data.
missing/unconfigured	The source is unavailable by configuration or feed state. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
diagnostic-only	The source is displayed for audit/QC but is not allowed to move recommendations yet.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer