| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 94W–106L–0P | 47% | -32.22 u | Last 14 days • 200 settled |
| Grade A | 32W–24L–0P | 57% | -0.92 u | |
| Grade B | 62W–82L–0P | 43% | -31.29 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 500W–477L–7P | 51% | -72.70 u | All-time • 984 settled |
| Grade A | 108W–81L–0P | 57% | -0.39 u | |
| Grade B | 392W–396L–7P | 50% | -72.31 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | K Prop | Landen Roupp | 4.5 | -116 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Landen Roupp: 3.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-19 | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan | 5.5 | -139 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Emmet Sheehan: 2.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-19 | K Prop | Parker Messick | 5.5 | -139 | - | WIN | +0.719 | Parker Messick: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-19 | K Prop | Nolan McLean | 5.5 | -143 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Nolan McLean: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 189 | 55% | -6.99u | 62 | 56% | -1.03u | 102 | 60% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 112 | 61% | +10.10u | 40 | 57% | +4.07u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 77 | 56% | +3.04u | 27 | 52% | -3.12u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 20 | 45% | -3.23u | 13 | 31% | -5.88u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 14 | 86% | +2.82u | 1 | 100% | +0.36u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 2 | 50% | -0.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 20 | 35% | -7.82u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Component | Status | Current Usage | Recommendation Impact | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 23 candidate(s); season N 189, 14d N 62 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 12 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 11 candidate(s); season N 112, 14d N 40 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 26 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 217 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 20 | No actionable recommendations. | 🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 117 candidate(s); season N 20, 14d N 13 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 6 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 2 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 3 candidate(s); season N 77, 14d N 27 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Hits Runs RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| PitcherAssessment | LIVE | Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted. | Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere. | Monitor assessment quality and data gaps. |
| PLV/PLA | UNCONFIGURED | Pitcher List pitcher PLV/PLA enrichment. | Diagnostic-only; does not change recommendations. | Set PLV_HITTER_CSV_URL and PLV_PITCHER_CSV_URL after CSV exports exist. |
| Hitter PLV | UNCONFIGURED | Pitcher List hitter PLV research signals. | Diagnostic-only; does not change recommendations. | Set PLV_HITTER_CSV_URL and PLV_PITCHER_CSV_URL after CSV exports exist. |
| HRR Component Research | ⛔ PAUSED | Shadow component research; 217 candidate(s) emitted. | No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused. | Validate component record before unpausing HRR. |
| Player Context | LIVE | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics. | Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes. | Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them. |
| AI Review | OFF | Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds. | Use for review notes after the model output is generated. |
This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
| ✓ | Savant: 618 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ⚠ | Savant 1st-inning stats unavailable — NRFI model using season stats only |
| ⚠ | Team NRFI streaks unavailable |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 130 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 609 pitcher(s), 2616 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 458 player(s) |
| ⚠ | PLV data unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped |
| ✓ | Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 6 team(s), 54 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 29 SP matchup(s), 1224 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 3 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Athletics, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Line movement: 2580 market side(s) checked | 522 opening snapshot(s) created | 1324 with movement |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ✓ | F5: 15 game(s) fetched | 15 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 2 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | HRR research: 217 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 3 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 499 | batter bats 173 | batter hand splits 173 | pitcher HR splits 75 | batter pitch-type 458 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 260 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | +130 | -157 | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (+124) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:11 PM | -101 | -120 | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-192) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-168) | -1.5 (+139) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | -126 | +105 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 10.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-186) | -1.5 (+153) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 4:11 PM | +124 | -149 | +1.5 (-174) | -1.5 (+143) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | -194 | +159 | -1.5 (-112) | +1.5 (-108) | O/U 7.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-167) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | -126 | +105 | -1.5 (+123) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +144 | -175 | +1.5 (-148) | -1.5 (+123) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +102 | -123 | -1.5 (+165) | +1.5 (-202) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+172) | +1.5 (-210) | O/U 6.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | -102 | -118 | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-192) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 8:41 PM | -193 | +158 | -1.5 (-104) | +1.5 (-115) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | -126 | +104 | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-155) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Model | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | SOX@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | -120 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -105 | best price | 31.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Mike Burrows Over | AST@TWI | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | -161 | DK Over 4.5 -161 | exact | 22.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 6.5 | -103 | 48.5% | 74.5% | +26.0% | $+46.84 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -116 | 51.3% | 70.9% | +19.6% | $+32.04 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -116 | 51.3% | 70.3% | +19.0% | $+30.98 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | +101 | 47.5% | 66.4% | +18.9% | $+33.50 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| B | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Run Line | Miami Marlins +1.5 | -108 | 49.6% | 67.0% | +17.4% | $+28.99 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -118 | 51.7% | 67.8% | +16.0% | $+25.17 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -114 | 51.0% | 66.4% | +15.4% | $+24.68 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (F5) | 6:41 PM | F5 ML | Miami Marlins | +160 | 36.2% | 46.5% | +10.3% | $+20.97 | 8 | Bet on DK |
| C | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres (F5) | 8:41 PM | F5 ML | San Diego Padres | +154 | 37.1% | 47.4% | +10.3% | $+20.41 | 8 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Cam Schlittler / Trey Yesavage | 5.8 / 7.7 | 3.7 / 7.7 | +7.6% | Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Janson Junk / Chris Sale | 5.3 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | -0.8% | Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Edward Cabrera / Kyle Harrison | 5.3 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | -2.6% | Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 8:41 PM | Randy Vásquez / Shohei Ohtani | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +5.3% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 5.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 4:11 PM | Emerson Hancock / Sean Burke | 4.7 / 7.7 | 4.8 / 7.7 | -1.0% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -1.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | Joe Ryan / Mike Burrows | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -9.0% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -9.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | TBD / Tanner Bibee ⚠ Home SP | 4.3 / 7.7 | 4.5 / 7.7 | -6.5% | Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -6.5% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Michael Wacha / Connelly Early | 4.0 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -13.7% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -13.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Michael McGreevy / Carmen Mlodzinski | 3.8 / 7.7 | 5.7 / 7.7 | -11.5% | Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | Kyle Freeland / Jack Leiter ⚠ Home SP | 3.8 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | -7.6% | Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -7.6% < 8% required Home SP (Kyle Freeland) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | Merrill Kelly / Tyler Mahle | 3.6 / 7.7 | 5.9 / 7.7 | -9.7% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -9.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:11 PM | Steven Matz / Shane Baz | 3.4 / 7.7 | 6.6 / 7.7 | -15.7% | Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -15.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | Aaron Nola / Andrew Abbott | 3.3 / 7.7 | 6.7 / 7.7 | -9.3% | Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -9.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Zack Littell / Zach Thornton | 3.1 / 7.7 | 6.5 / 7.7 | -11.9% | Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Jack Kochanowicz / Aaron Civale | 2.8 / 7.7 | 6.8 / 7.7 | -13.7% | Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -13.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | 3 | Andrew Abbott (L) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 42.0% | 20.8% | +21.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | 1 | Mike Burrows (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 42.0% | 23.2% | +18.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:11 PM | 2 | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 42.0% | 23.2% | +18.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | 6 | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 42.0% | 15.6% | +26.4% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | 4 | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 41.9% | 18.8% | +23.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | James Wood | Washington Nationals | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | - | Zach Thornton (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.9% | 19.7% | +22.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | 2 | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 41.9% | 18.8% | +23.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | - | Jack Leiter (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.7% | 19.7% | +22.0% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | - | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 41.7% | 14.3% | +27.4% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | Jack Kochanowicz (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.6% | 23.2% | +18.4% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | - | Merrill Kelly (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.6% | 17.9% | +23.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | Aaron Civale (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 41.4% | 24.6% | +16.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | - | Michael Wacha (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.4% | 16.4% | +25.0% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | - | Jack Leiter (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.3% | 20.8% | +20.5% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | - | Michael McGreevy (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.2% | 17.1% | +24.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | - | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 41.2% | 9.4% | +31.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | Jack Kochanowicz (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 41.1% | 22.0% | +19.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | 3 | Joe Ryan (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.1% | 23.2% | +17.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:11 PM | 3 | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.0% | 15.0% | +26.0% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | - | Michael McGreevy (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 40.7% | 18.8% | +22.0% | 99 | - |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | 100 | 92.8% | -1285 | Bryce Harper, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | 100 | 91.8% | -1121 | Byron Buxton, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Kody Clemens | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 100 | 91.7% | -1107 | James Wood, Mark Vientos, Daylen Lile, CJ Abrams | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | 100 | 89.2% | -825 | Casey Schmitt, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:11 PM | 100 | 88.4% | -759 | Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | 100 | 87.6% | -707 | Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Jake Burger, TJ Rumfield | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.4% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | 100 | 86.7% | -650 | Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Salvador Perez, Starling Marte | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 86.3% | -630 | Nick Kurtz, Mike Trout, Shea Langeliers, Zach Neto | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.7% | - |
| Watchlist | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 4:11 PM | 100 | 85.8% | -606 | Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Julio Rodriguez | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | - |
| Watchlist | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 100 | 85.7% | -600 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Kazuma Okamoto, Brandon Valenzuela | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | Wind 12 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect | - |
| Watchlist | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | 100 | 85.6% | -596 | Dillon Dingler, Angel Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | - |
| Watchlist | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | 100 | 83.8% | -517 | Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | 100 | 83.7% | -513 | Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Dominic Smith | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 8:41 PM | 100 | 82.1% | -458 | Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | 100 | 81.0% | -425 | Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Ian Happ, Jackson Chourio | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | Wind 12 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | +1100 | 0.5% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +1000 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Kyle Karros | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | +900 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | +1400 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | +900 | 0.7% | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | +600 | 0.7% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (1 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | +1100 | 0.7% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | +600 | 0.8% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Jackson Merrill | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 8:41 PM | +550 | 1.2% | Team lineup not posted | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Cam Smith | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | +800 | 1.4% | Low lineup spot (8) | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Edward Cabrera | Kyle Harrison | 1.05 | 19.0% | 50.6% | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 8:41 PM | Randy Vásquez | Shohei Ohtani | 0.85 | 17.9% | 48.7% | — | — | |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Janson Junk | Chris Sale | 0.88 | 16.3% | 45.9% | — | — | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Michael McGreevy | Carmen Mlodzinski | 0.93 | 16.2% | 45.7% | — | — | |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | None | Tanner Bibee | 0.91 | 14.4% | 42.2% | — | — | |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Cam Schlittler | Trey Yesavage | 1.18 | 14.3% | 42.1% | — | — | |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 4:11 PM | Emerson Hancock | Sean Burke | 0.92 | 14.2% | 41.8% | — | — | |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Jack Kochanowicz | Aaron Civale | 0.98 | 13.7% | 40.9% | — | — | |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Michael Wacha | Connelly Early | 0.93 | 13.3% | 40.2% | — | — | |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 3:10 PM | Kyle Freeland | Jack Leiter | 1.20 | 12.4% | 38.3% | — | — | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:11 PM | Steven Matz | Shane Baz | 0.94 | 11.6% | 36.7% | 8.1% | +3.5% | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | Merrill Kelly | Tyler Mahle | 1.02 | 10.8% | 34.9% | — | — | |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Zack Littell | Zach Thornton | 1.02 | 8.3% | 28.9% | — | — | |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 1:41 PM | Joe Ryan | Mike Burrows | 0.95 | 8.2% | 28.7% | 6.9% | +1.3% | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | Aaron Nola | Andrew Abbott | 1.10 | 7.2% | 26.2% | 4.9% | +2.3% |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | PLV/PLA | PLV Quality | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | R | 17.8% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 18.5% | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | L | 29.4% | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 111 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 19.1% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | L | 22.3% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Edward Cabrera | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 22.3% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | R | 21.1% | 5.5 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 18.0% | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | R | 21.4% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8%, pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | 22.2% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | R | 20.6% | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jack Kochanowicz | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | R | 15.9% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 28.9% | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 107 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 85.50 | 14.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | R | 19.3% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | L | 28.5% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | R | 24.6% | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Zach Thornton | New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | L | 21.8% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 27.6% | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 106 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.4%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 21.9% | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 72 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 21.7% | 4.7 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 79 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 20.7% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 22.9% | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | R | 25.5% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 20.8% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 97 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 21.50 | 78.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Steven Matz | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 19.5% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jack Leiter | Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | R | 24.6% | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | R | 24.2% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 93.00 | 7.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 12.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | R | 12.8% | 4.3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 72 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 20.6 | 3.1 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.1 | 106 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Under | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 15.2 | -2.3 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.2 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Jack Kochanowicz | Jack Kochanowicz Under | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Joe Ryan | Joe Ryan Under | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.6 | C | PASS | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 107 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Emerson Hancock | Emerson Hancock Over | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.8 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Edward Cabrera | Edward Cabrera Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.6 | 92 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min |
| Janson Junk | Janson Junk Under | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.6 | 92 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min |
| Michael McGreevy | Michael McGreevy Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 3.09 | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.77 | 2.88 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ildemaro Vargas | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.86 | 1.38 | 0.70 | 0.78 | 2.90 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Byron Buxton | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.78 | 1.24 | 0.99 | 0.55 | 2.66 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.76 | 1.24 | 0.84 | 0.69 | 3.38 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| James Wood | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.76 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.78 | 2.57 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Jordan Walker | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.73 | 1.21 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 2.87 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| CJ Abrams | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.69 | 1.08 | 0.70 | 0.91 | 2.52 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.67 | 1.48 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 2.62 / Over | 0.59 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Bryce Harper | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.64 | 1.05 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 2.60 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Josh Lowe | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.63 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 2.62 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.61 | 1.03 | 0.74 | 0.84 | 2.75 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Jonathan Aranda | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.57 | 1.01 | 0.61 | 0.94 | 2.76 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.57 | 0.99 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 2.48 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Pedro Pages | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.55 | 1.51 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 2.69 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.51 | 1.16 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 2.41 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 1.10 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 2.90 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Mickey Moniak | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | Over 1.5 | 2.42 | 1.04 | 0.59 | 0.79 | 2.43 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.42 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 2.50 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Daylen Lile | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.37 | 1.06 | 0.72 | 0.59 | 2.23 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ben Rice | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.36 | 0.99 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 2.10 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 2.36 | 1.10 | 0.49 | 0.77 | 2.69 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Corbin Carroll | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.28 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.54 | 2.13 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Alec Burleson | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.27 | 1.13 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 2.60 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Chandler Simpson | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 1.30 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 2.17 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Otto Lopez | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 1.35 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 2.14 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Market Trust Tiers | Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers. |
| Market Promotion Criteria | The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted. |
| Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact | Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed. |
| Data Readiness | Input availability for the run, including lineups, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, player context, and PLV state. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays. |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ TOP PICK | Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion. |
| ✅ Best Play | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| 👀 Strong Watch | Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick. |
| 🔬 Research Lead | Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears. |
| ⛔ Paused Signal | Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable. |
Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.
| Stage | Recommendation behavior | Evidence needed |
|---|---|---|
| Trusted | Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output. | Continue passing season and recent market-health checks. |
| Watch | Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted. | Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance. |
| Research | Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears. | Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation. |
| Paused | Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations. | A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research. |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.
| Usage type | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Active recommendation market | Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules. |
| Held / gated market | Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears. |
| Shadow research | Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations. |
| Diagnostic-only source | Context layers such as PLV, player splits, and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them. |
| Component | Purpose | Recommendation impact today |
|---|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, PLV/PLA diagnostics, and data gaps. | Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason. | Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates. |
| HRR Component Research | Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes. | Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold. |
| Player Context | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, and workload diagnostics. | Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context. |
| PLV/PLA | Pitcher List pitch-quality enrichment for pitchers and hitters once CSV exports are configured. | Diagnostic-only until settled validation proves it should affect recommendations. |
| AI Review | Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status. |
Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is diagnostic-only until validated. It can explain pitcher and hitter context, but it does not change recommendations when configured.
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| disabled | PLV loading is intentionally turned off. |
| unconfigured | No CSV export source is available, so PLV enrichment is skipped. |
| fetch failed | A source was configured, but the current fetch failed and no usable cache was available. |
| live sheet | The run loaded PLV directly from the configured CSV export. |
| fresh cache | The run used a disk cache inside the configured freshness window. |
| stale cache | The run fell back to an older cache after live fetch failed; treat it as diagnostic context only. |
To enable PLV after CSV exports exist, set PLV_HITTER_CSV_URL and PLV_PITCHER_CSV_URL in GitHub repo variables for public sheets or secrets for private/tokenized sheets. No code change required. PLV remains diagnostic-only until settled validation proves it should affect recommendations.
| State | How to read it |
|---|---|
| check | The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section. |
| warn | The run can continue, but the affected layer is skipped, degraded, or waiting for later game-day data. |
| missing/unconfigured | The source is unavailable by configuration or feed state. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk. |
| diagnostic-only | The source is displayed for audit/QC but is not allowed to move recommendations yet. |
| Artifact | Use it for |
|---|---|
| Main HTML report | Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide. |
| Full audit HTML | Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds. |
| Audit JSON | Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates. |
| Performance report | Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping. |
| Tracker CSV | Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.