| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 112W–121L–0P | 48% | -30.68 u | Last 14 days • 233 settled |
| Grade A | 36W–24L–0P | 60% | +2.03 u | |
| Grade B | 76W–97L–0P | 44% | -32.71 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 496W–470L–7P | 51% | -68.72 u | All-time • 973 settled |
| Grade A | 107W–78L–0P | 58% | +1.89 u | |
| Grade B | 389W–392L–7P | 50% | -70.61 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | K Prop | Zac Gallen | 4.5 | -151 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Zac Gallen: 5.0 (line 4.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 185 | 56% | -4.71u | 65 | 57% | -0.71u | 98 | 61% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 108 | 61% | +10.60u | 36 | 58% | +4.56u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 75 | 56% | +3.24u | 28 | 50% | -4.27u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 3 | 33% | -0.55u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 19 | 47% | -2.23u | 13 | 31% | -5.88u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 14 | 86% | +2.82u | 1 | 100% | +0.36u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 2 | 50% | -0.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 40 | 28% | -20.66u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Component | Status | Current Usage | Recommendation Impact | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 23 candidate(s); season N 185, 14d N 65 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 12 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 1 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 9 candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 36 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 23 candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 1 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 215 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 40 | No actionable recommendations. | 🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 110 candidate(s); season N 19, 14d N 13 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 6 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 candidate(s) | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | Validate forward results before promotion. |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 3 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 2 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 28 | Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals. | Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Hits Runs RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| PitcherAssessment | LIVE | Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted. | Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere. | Monitor assessment quality and data gaps. |
| PLV/PLA | UNCONFIGURED | Pitcher List pitcher PLV/PLA enrichment. | Diagnostic-only; does not change recommendations. | Set PLV_HITTER_CSV_URL and PLV_PITCHER_CSV_URL after CSV exports exist. |
| Hitter PLV | UNCONFIGURED | Pitcher List hitter PLV research signals. | Diagnostic-only; does not change recommendations. | Set PLV_HITTER_CSV_URL and PLV_PITCHER_CSV_URL after CSV exports exist. |
| HRR Component Research | ⛔ PAUSED | Shadow component research; 215 candidate(s) emitted. | No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused. | Validate component record before unpausing HRR. |
| Player Context | LIVE | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics. | Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes. | Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them. |
| AI Review | OFF | Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds. | Use for review notes after the model output is generated. |
This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
| ✓ | Savant: 615 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 247 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 128 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 606 pitcher(s), 2602 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 456 player(s) |
| ⚠ | PLV data unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 24 team(s), 216 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 953 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 14 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Athletics, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 8 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Line movement: 2594 market side(s) checked | 784 opening snapshot(s) created | 1465 with movement |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ✓ | F5: 14 game(s) fetched | 14 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 0 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | HRR research: 215 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 13 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 499 | batter bats 173 | batter hand splits 173 | pitcher HR splits 74 | batter pitch-type 456 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 249 batter(s) scored | 14 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | -105 | -114 | -1.5 (+154) | +1.5 (-188) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | +124 | -149 | +1.5 (-179) | -1.5 (+147) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | -163 | +135 | -1.5 (+105) | +1.5 (-126) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+113) | +1.5 (-136) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +114 | -137 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | -131 | +108 | -1.5 (+134) | +1.5 (-162) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+141) | +1.5 (-171) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | +115 | -138 | +1.5 (-176) | -1.5 (+145) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+146) | +1.5 (-177) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-167) | O/U 10.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +102 | -123 | -1.5 (+156) | +1.5 (-190) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | +124 | -149 | +1.5 (-174) | -1.5 (+143) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | -163 | +135 | -1.5 (+102) | +1.5 (-122) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Model | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | GUA@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | -144 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -141 | best price | 36.0% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Landen Roupp Over | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | -134 | DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact | 34.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | MET@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | -142 | DK Over 5.5 -142 | exact | 26.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -107 | 49.5% | 69.6% | +20.2% | $+34.74 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -112 | 50.5% | 69.2% | +18.6% | $+30.95 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -104 | 48.7% | 65.4% | +16.7% | $+28.34 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -102 | 48.3% | 63.9% | +15.7% | $+26.59 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -111 | 50.2% | 65.8% | +15.6% | $+25.08 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -101 | 47.9% | 63.3% | +15.3% | $+25.95 | 9 | Bet on DK |
No bets meet the threshold today.
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Ben Brown / Jacob Misiorowski | 7.1 / 7.7 | 2.9 / 7.7 | +21.6% | Score 7.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (6 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Foster Griffin / Nolan McLean | 6.8 / 7.7 | 3.2 / 7.7 | +26.2% | Score 6.8 < 7.7 threshold |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Will Warren / Dylan Cease | 6.6 / 7.7 | 3.4 / 7.7 | +26.5% | Score 6.6 < 7.7 threshold |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Ryne Nelson / Landen Roupp | 6.6 / 7.7 | 2.9 / 7.7 | +21.5% | Score 6.6 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Jesús Luzardo / Chase Burns | 6.6 / 7.7 | 3.4 / 7.7 | +17.5% | Score 6.6 < 7.7 threshold |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Griffin Canning / Emmet Sheehan ⚠ Home SP | 5.0 / 7.7 | 4.1 / 7.7 | +4.2% | Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 4.2% < 8% required Home SP (Griffin Canning) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Keider Montero / Parker Messick | 4.9 / 7.7 | 5.1 / 7.7 | +0.4% | Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 0.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Bailey Falter / Ranger Suarez ⚠ Home SP | 4.9 / 7.7 | 4.4 / 7.7 | -1.9% | Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -1.9% < 8% required Home SP (Bailey Falter) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Griffin Jax / Kyle Bradish | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -5.3% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Reid Detmers / Jacob Lopez | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -2.8% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.8% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Zebby Matthews / Jason Alexander | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -5.7% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (5 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Bryce Miller / Anthony Kay | 3.5 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -15.0% | Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -15.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Matthew Liberatore / Mitch Keller | 3.5 / 7.7 | 6.5 / 7.7 | -14.9% | Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -14.9% < 8% required |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Sammy Peralta / Tyler Alexander ⚠ Home SP | 2.3 / 7.7 | 6.8 / 7.7 | -21.9% | Score 2.3 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -21.9% < 8% required Home SP (Sammy Peralta) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 1 | Jacob Lopez (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 42.0% | 17.1% | +24.9% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | - | Keider Montero (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 42.0% | 14.3% | +27.7% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 2 | Chase Burns (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 1 | Jason Alexander (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.9% | 23.2% | +18.6% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | 7 | Matthew Liberatore (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.8% | 15.0% | +26.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | 2 | Griffin Jax (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.7% | 16.4% | +25.3% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 2 | Jacob Lopez (L) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.6% | 20.8% | +20.8% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | - | Griffin Canning (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.6% | 17.9% | +23.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | 2 | Kyle Bradish (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.6% | 20.8% | +20.8% | 99 | - |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 2 | Dylan Cease (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.3% | 23.2% | +18.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 40.7% | 17.9% | +22.8% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 40.6% | 24.6% | +16.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | 4 | Mitch Keller (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 40.1% | 16.4% | +23.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Mark Vientos | New York Mets | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 4 | Foster Griffin (L) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 39.8% | 18.8% | +21.0% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | 4 | Bailey Falter (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 39.7% | 17.1% | +22.6% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Ryne Nelson (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 39.5% | 19.7% | +19.8% | 99 | - |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 3 | Dylan Cease (R) | theScore Bet | +220 | - | 38.6% | 29.1% | +9.6% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 3 | Zebby Matthews (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 38.6% | 24.6% | +14.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 38.5% | 17.9% | +20.6% | 99 | - |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 100 | 94.2% | -1618 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Bellinger | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | Wind 14 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 100 | 92.9% | -1317 | Bryce Harper, Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 92.8% | -1297 | Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Shea Langeliers, Jorge Soler | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | Wind 13 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 100 | 92.2% | -1174 | Byron Buxton, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Kody Clemens | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | Wind 11 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | 100 | 91.1% | -1020 | Brandon Lowe, Jordan Walker, Oneil Cruz, Pedro Pages | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Precip chance 45% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 100 | 87.7% | -712 | Mark Vientos, Juan Soto, James Wood, Daylen Lile | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | 100 | 87.0% | -671 | Angel Martinez, Chase DeLauter, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | Precip chance 42% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | 100 | 86.7% | -654 | Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Jake Burger, Justin Foscue | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | 100 | 86.7% | -652 | Gunnar Henderson, Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso, Jonathan Aranda | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3% | - |
| Watchlist | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 100 | 84.8% | -556 | Casey Schmitt, Ryan Waldschmidt, Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | 100 | 84.5% | -545 | Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | Wind 17 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect | - |
| Watchlist | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | 100 | 84.5% | -544 | Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Julio Rodriguez | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | - |
| Watchlist | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | 94 | 83.1% | -492 | Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Carlos Narvaez, Salvador Perez | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 100 | 83.0% | -488 | Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Shohei Ohtani, Gavin Sheets | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | Wind 11 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +600 | 0.4% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +1100 | 0.4% | Low lineup spot (9) | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Geraldo Perdomo | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +1100 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | +1100 | 0.6% | Low lineup spot (7) | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Troy Johnston | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +800 | 0.8% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +525 | 0.8% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +700 | 1.0% | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (4 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Sal Frelick | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | +1100 | 1.2% | Low lineup spot (8) | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Kevin McGonigle | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | +700 | 1.2% | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form |
| Nasim Nunez | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | +1400 | 1.3% | Confirmed lineup but player not listed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Griffin Canning | Emmet Sheehan | 0.85 | 17.0% | 47.1% | 10.4% | +6.6% | |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Bailey Falter | Ranger Suarez | 0.93 | 16.9% | 46.9% | 12.3% | +4.6% | |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Bryce Miller | Anthony Kay | 0.92 | 15.5% | 44.4% | 11.9% | +3.6% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Ben Brown | Jacob Misiorowski | 1.05 | 15.5% | 44.4% | 9.7% | +5.8% | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Ryne Nelson | Landen Roupp | 1.02 | 15.2% | 43.9% | — | — | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Griffin Jax | Kyle Bradish | 0.94 | 13.3% | 40.1% | 11.1% | +2.2% | |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Sammy Peralta | Tyler Alexander | 1.20 | 13.3% | 40.1% | 9.9% | +3.4% | |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Keider Montero | Parker Messick | 0.91 | 13.0% | 39.5% | 9.7% | +3.3% | |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Foster Griffin | Nolan McLean | 1.02 | 12.3% | 38.1% | 8.2% | +4.1% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Matthew Liberatore | Mitch Keller | 0.93 | 8.9% | 30.5% | 10.4% | -1.4% | |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Zebby Matthews | Jason Alexander | 0.95 | 7.8% | 27.8% | 7.1% | +0.8% | |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Reid Detmers | Jacob Lopez | 0.98 | 7.2% | 26.0% | 7.5% | -0.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Jesús Luzardo | Chase Burns | 1.10 | 7.1% | 25.8% | 8.5% | -1.4% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Will Warren | Dylan Cease | 1.18 | 5.8% | 22.4% | 4.3% | +1.5% |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | PLV/PLA | PLV Quality | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | R | 23.5% | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 96 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 17.3% | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | L | 24.8% | 3.0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 50 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.0 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 24.9% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | L | 24.3% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Ben Brown | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 26.2% | 2.4 | 16.6 | 6.8 | 40 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 82.50 | 17.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 17.5% | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 77 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 14.00 | 86.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 26.1% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | L | 27.5% | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Sammy Peralta | Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7%, pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 17.9% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jason Alexander | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.0% | 3.0 | - | 5.4 | 50 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 19.50 | 80.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Bailey Falter | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | L | 23.5% | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 27.6% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Braxton Garrett | Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 36.1% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.8%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | R | 22.3% | - | 7.0 | 5.9 | 98 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 100.00 | 0.00 | season+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | R | 29.5% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 29.0% | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 96 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 26.5% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 19.8% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5%, pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 27.9% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 75.00 | 25.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.8% | - | 5.1 | 5.7 | 95 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+savant+hand | season leash 5.1 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.0%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 19.5% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 20.50 | 79.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 20.1% | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 49 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 18.6% | 1.0 | - | 4.8 | 17 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | R | 31.5% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 12.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | L | 23.2% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | Ryne Nelson Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 15.4 | -2.1 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.2 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Kyle Bradish | Kyle Bradish Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.3 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 50% (4 books) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Emmet Sheehan Under | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.2 | 86 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Mitch Keller | Mitch Keller Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.1 | D | PASS | research | deep | 5.8 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Under | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | D | PASS | research | deep | 5.9 | 98 | season+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min |
| Landen Roupp | Landen Roupp Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.5 | -0.9 | D | PASS | research | short | 5.4 | 86 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | D | PASS | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.8 | 94 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Over | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | D | PASS | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.93 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 0.62 | 2.89 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ben Rice | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.86 | 1.10 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 2.58 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jordan Walker | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.86 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 2.92 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.84 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 0.71 | 2.88 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.81 | 1.26 | 0.91 | 0.65 | 2.29 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Ildemaro Vargas | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.79 | 1.32 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 2.54 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| James Wood | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.77 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 0.66 | 2.02 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| CJ Abrams | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.77 | 1.11 | 0.67 | 0.99 | 2.26 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Aaron Judge | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.66 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.76 | 2.28 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1.09 | 0.97 | 0.57 | 2.50 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Yandy Diaz | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 1.47 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 2.54 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 2.14 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Alec Burleson | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.52 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 0.88 | 2.41 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Cody Bellinger | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 0.99 | 0.69 | 0.81 | 2.12 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Bryce Harper | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.45 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 2.31 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Hunter Goodman | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | Over 1.5 | 2.42 | 0.98 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 1.86 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Brandon Marsh | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.40 | 1.19 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 1.95 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ivan Herrera | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 1.35 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 2.22 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Julio Rodriguez | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 1.35 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 2.22 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Randy Arozarena | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 1.22 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 2.51 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jonathan Aranda | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.38 | 1.01 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 2.58 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| JJ Wetherholt | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.37 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 2.12 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Junior Caminero | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.37 | 1.08 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 2.42 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.36 | 0.95 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 1.99 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 1.13 | 0.76 | 0.46 | 2.16 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Market Trust Tiers | Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers. |
| Market Promotion Criteria | The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted. |
| Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact | Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed. |
| Data Readiness | Input availability for the run, including lineups, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, player context, and PLV state. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays. |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ TOP PICK | Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion. |
| ✅ Best Play | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| 👀 Strong Watch | Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick. |
| 🔬 Research Lead | Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears. |
| ⛔ Paused Signal | Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable. |
Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.
| Stage | Recommendation behavior | Evidence needed |
|---|---|---|
| Trusted | Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output. | Continue passing season and recent market-health checks. |
| Watch | Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted. | Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance. |
| Research | Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears. | Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation. |
| Paused | Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations. | A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research. |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.
| Usage type | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Active recommendation market | Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules. |
| Held / gated market | Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears. |
| Shadow research | Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations. |
| Diagnostic-only source | Context layers such as PLV, player splits, and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them. |
| Component | Purpose | Recommendation impact today |
|---|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, PLV/PLA diagnostics, and data gaps. | Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason. | Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates. |
| HRR Component Research | Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes. | Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold. |
| Player Context | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, and workload diagnostics. | Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context. |
| PLV/PLA | Pitcher List pitch-quality enrichment for pitchers and hitters once CSV exports are configured. | Diagnostic-only until settled validation proves it should affect recommendations. |
| AI Review | Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status. |
Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is diagnostic-only until validated. It can explain pitcher and hitter context, but it does not change recommendations when configured.
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| disabled | PLV loading is intentionally turned off. |
| unconfigured | No CSV export source is available, so PLV enrichment is skipped. |
| fetch failed | A source was configured, but the current fetch failed and no usable cache was available. |
| live sheet | The run loaded PLV directly from the configured CSV export. |
| fresh cache | The run used a disk cache inside the configured freshness window. |
| stale cache | The run fell back to an older cache after live fetch failed; treat it as diagnostic context only. |
To enable PLV after CSV exports exist, set PLV_HITTER_CSV_URL and PLV_PITCHER_CSV_URL in GitHub repo variables for public sheets or secrets for private/tokenized sheets. No code change required. PLV remains diagnostic-only until settled validation proves it should affect recommendations.
| State | How to read it |
|---|---|
| check | The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section. |
| warn | The run can continue, but the affected layer is skipped, degraded, or waiting for later game-day data. |
| missing/unconfigured | The source is unavailable by configuration or feed state. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk. |
| diagnostic-only | The source is displayed for audit/QC but is not allowed to move recommendations yet. |
| Artifact | Use it for |
|---|---|
| Main HTML report | Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide. |
| Full audit HTML | Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds. |
| Audit JSON | Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates. |
| Performance report | Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping. |
| Tracker CSV | Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.