| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 112W–121L–0P | 48% | -30.68 u | Last 14 days • 233 settled |
| Grade A | 36W–24L–0P | 60% | +2.03 u | |
| Grade B | 76W–97L–0P | 44% | -32.71 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 496W–470L–7P | 51% | -68.72 u | All-time • 973 settled |
| Grade A | 107W–78L–0P | 58% | +1.89 u | |
| Grade B | 389W–392L–7P | 50% | -70.61 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | K Prop | Zac Gallen | 4.5 | -151 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Zac Gallen: 5.0 (line 4.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 185 | 56% | -4.71u | 65 | 57% | -0.71u | 98 | 61% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 108 | 61% | +10.60u | 36 | 58% | +4.56u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 75 | 56% | +3.24u | 28 | 50% | -4.27u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 3 | 33% | -0.55u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 19 | 47% | -2.23u | 13 | 31% | -5.88u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 14 | 86% | +2.82u | 1 | 100% | +0.36u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 2 | 50% | -0.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 40 | 28% | -20.66u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| ✓ | Savant: 615 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 247 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 128 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 606 pitcher(s), 2602 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 456 player(s) |
| ⚠ | PLV data unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ⚠ | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 1149 career PA |
| ⚠ | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Line movement: 2144 market side(s) checked | 10 opening snapshot(s) created | 420 with movement |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ⚠ | F5: 0 games fetched — market keys may be unavailable for today's slate |
| ✓ | HRR research: 234 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 499 | batter bats 173 | batter hand splits 173 | pitcher HR splits 74 | batter pitch-type 456 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 257 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+118) | +1.5 (-142) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +104 | -125 | -1.5 (+166) | +1.5 (-203) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | +119 | -143 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | -126 | +105 | -1.5 (+137) | +1.5 (-167) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | -149 | +123 | -1.5 (+108) | +1.5 (-130) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +114 | -137 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | -131 | +109 | -1.5 (+136) | +1.5 (-164) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-167) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | +119 | -143 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+153) | +1.5 (-186) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | -131 | +109 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 10.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-186) | -1.5 (+153) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +104 | -125 | -1.5 (+157) | +1.5 (-191) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | +128 | -155 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | -163 | +135 | -1.5 (+104) | +1.5 (-126) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Model | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick | K Prop | Landen Roupp Over | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | -123 | DK Over 4.5 -123 | exact | 34.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | DOD@PAD | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | -139 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -124 | best price | 30.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | GUA@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | -139 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 29.1% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | MET@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | -143 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 26.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -112 | 50.4% | 69.1% | +18.6% | $+30.72 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -107 | 49.5% | 67.6% | +18.2% | $+30.84 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -108 | 49.7% | 66.4% | +16.7% | $+27.92 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -111 | 50.2% | 65.9% | +15.7% | $+25.32 | 9 | Bet on DK |
No bets meet the threshold today.
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Will Warren / Dylan Cease | 7.1 / 7.7 | 2.4 / 7.7 | +31.9% | Score 7.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Ben Brown / Jacob Misiorowski | 7.1 / 7.7 | 2.5 / 7.7 | +21.6% | Score 7.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (6 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Jesús Luzardo / Chase Burns | 6.9 / 7.7 | 2.6 / 7.7 | +26.9% | Score 6.9 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Foster Griffin / Nolan McLean | 6.7 / 7.7 | 2.8 / 7.7 | +26.4% | Score 6.7 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Ryne Nelson / Landen Roupp | 6.6 / 7.7 | 2.9 / 7.7 | +21.1% | Score 6.6 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Keider Montero / Parker Messick | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.4 / 7.7 | +3.8% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 3.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Bailey Falter / Ranger Suarez ⚠ Home SP | 5.0 / 7.7 | 3.8 / 7.7 | -1.2% | Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -1.2% < 8% required Home SP (Bailey Falter) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Griffin Canning / Emmet Sheehan ⚠ Home SP | 4.7 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +0.9% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 0.9% < 8% required Home SP (Griffin Canning) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Griffin Jax / Kyle Bradish | 4.6 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | -3.6% | Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Reid Detmers / Jacob Lopez | 4.6 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | +1.0% | Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | Braxton Garrett / Martín Pérez ⚠ Home SP | 4.5 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +0.4% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 0.4% < 8% required Home SP (Braxton Garrett) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Zebby Matthews / Lance McCullers Jr. | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.1 / 7.7 | -3.4% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (5 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Bryce Miller / Anthony Kay | 3.7 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | -13.2% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -13.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Matthew Liberatore / Mitch Keller | 3.6 / 7.7 | 5.9 / 7.7 | -10.9% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Sammy Peralta / Kumar Rocker ⚠ Home SP | 2.3 / 7.7 | 6.5 / 7.7 | -19.5% | Score 2.3 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -19.5% < 8% required Home SP (Sammy Peralta) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Chance | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | - | Chase Burns (R) | theScore Bet | +220 | - | 42.0% | 29.1% | +12.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | - | Keider Montero (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 41.9% | 13.3% | +28.7% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | - | Kumar Rocker (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | - | Kumar Rocker (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.9% | 19.7% | +22.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | - | Braxton Garrett (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.8% | 15.0% | +26.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | Jacob Lopez (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.8% | 17.1% | +24.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | - | Matthew Liberatore (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.8% | 15.0% | +26.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | - | Griffin Canning (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.6% | 17.9% | +23.8% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | - | Chase Burns (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.6% | 20.8% | +20.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | - | Griffin Jax (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 41.3% | 15.6% | +25.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | - | Kyle Bradish (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.1% | 20.8% | +20.3% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | Jacob Lopez (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.0% | 19.7% | +21.3% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 40.7% | 17.1% | +23.6% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 40.6% | 24.6% | +16.1% | 99 | - |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | - | Dylan Cease (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 40.4% | 20.8% | +19.6% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Ryne Nelson (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 39.5% | 18.8% | +20.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | - | Mitch Keller (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 39.4% | 16.4% | +23.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Mark Vientos | New York Mets | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | - | Foster Griffin (L) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 39.0% | 17.9% | +21.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 38.4% | 17.1% | +21.4% | 99 | - |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 87.0% | -667 | Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Shea Langeliers, Jorge Soler | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | 100 | 86.5% | -643 | Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Julio Rodriguez | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | 100 | 86.3% | -629 | Angel Martinez, Chase DeLauter, Jose Ramirez, Jahmai Jones | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | Wind 10 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.7% | - |
| Watchlist | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 100 | 85.9% | -608 | Mark Vientos, Daylen Lile, James Wood, Juan Soto | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 100 | 85.7% | -600 | Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, JJ Bleday, Elly De La Cruz | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | - |
| Watchlist | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | 100 | 85.5% | -592 | Brandon Lowe, Jordan Walker, Oneil Cruz, Pedro Pages | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | 100 | 84.9% | -563 | Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Liam Hicks | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 100 | 84.9% | -562 | Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Shohei Ohtani, Gavin Sheets | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | 100 | 84.8% | -559 | Gunnar Henderson, Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso, Jonathan Aranda | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | - |
| Watchlist | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 100 | 84.8% | -556 | Casey Schmitt, Ryan Waldschmidt, Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | 100 | 84.6% | -548 | Seiya Suzuki, Michael Conforto, Jake Bauers, Ian Happ | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | Wind 14 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | - |
| Watchlist | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 100 | 84.4% | -541 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Zach Cole, Kody Clemens | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | Wind 11 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN | - |
| Watchlist | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 100 | 83.2% | -494 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Bellinger | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | - |
| Watchlist | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | 100 | 81.9% | -452 | Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield, Jake Burger | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | Cold (38F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | - |
| Watchlist | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | 93 | 80.5% | -411 | Willson Contreras, Elias Diaz, Wilyer Abreu, Carlos Narvaez | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN | Precip chance 40% -- delay/postponement risk | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | +1100 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | +900 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Wind 11 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN |
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +1000 | 0.5% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | +1100 | 0.6% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Geraldo Perdomo | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +1100 | 0.6% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) |
| Kyle Karros | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +1000 | 0.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold weather 38F | Cold recent HR form |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +700 | 0.8% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (4 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +700 | 0.8% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold weather 38F | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +525 | 0.8% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Kevin McGonigle | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | +700 | 1.0% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Bailey Falter | Ranger Suarez | 0.93 | 19.6% | 51.5% | — | — | |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Sammy Peralta | Kumar Rocker | 1.20 | 18.1% | 49.1% | — | — | |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Will Warren | Dylan Cease | 1.18 | 16.8% | 46.9% | — | — | |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Zebby Matthews | Lance McCullers Jr. | 0.95 | 15.6% | 44.6% | — | — | |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Ben Brown | Jacob Misiorowski | 1.05 | 15.4% | 44.3% | — | — | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Ryne Nelson | Landen Roupp | 1.02 | 15.2% | 43.9% | — | — | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Griffin Jax | Kyle Bradish | 0.94 | 15.2% | 43.8% | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Griffin Canning | Emmet Sheehan | 0.85 | 15.1% | 43.6% | — | — | |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | Braxton Garrett | Martín Pérez | 0.88 | 15.1% | 43.6% | — | — | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | Matthew Liberatore | Mitch Keller | 0.93 | 14.5% | 42.4% | — | — | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Jesús Luzardo | Chase Burns | 1.10 | 14.3% | 42.1% | — | — | |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Foster Griffin | Nolan McLean | 1.02 | 14.1% | 41.8% | — | — | |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | Keider Montero | Parker Messick | 0.91 | 13.7% | 41.0% | — | — | |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Bryce Miller | Anthony Kay | 0.92 | 13.5% | 40.4% | — | — | |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Reid Detmers | Jacob Lopez | 0.98 | 13.0% | 39.6% | — | — |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | PLV/PLA | PLV Quality | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | R | 23.5% | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 96 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 17.3% | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | L | 24.2% | 3.0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 50 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.0 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 24.9% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | L | 24.3% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Ben Brown | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 26.2% | 2.4 | 16.6 | 6.8 | 40 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 82.50 | 17.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 17.5% | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 77 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 14.00 | 86.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 26.1% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | L | 27.5% | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Sammy Peralta | Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7%, pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 17.9% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | 23.6% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Bailey Falter | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | L | 23.5% | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 27.6% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Braxton Garrett | Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 36.1% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.8%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | R | 22.3% | - | 7.0 | 5.9 | 98 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 100.00 | 0.00 | season+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | R | 29.5% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 29.0% | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 96 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 26.5% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 19.8% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5%, pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 27.9% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 75.00 | 25.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.8% | - | 5.1 | 5.7 | 95 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+savant+hand | season leash 5.1 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.0%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 19.5% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 20.50 | 79.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 20.1% | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 49 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | R | 19.0% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | R | 31.5% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 12.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | L | 23.2% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | Ryne Nelson Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 15.4 | -2.1 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.2 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: Only 0 consensus book(s) with data — need ≥2 to be actionable |
| Kyle Bradish | Kyle Bradish Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.3 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: Only 1 consensus book(s) with data — need ≥2 to be actionable |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: Only 1 consensus book(s) with data — need ≥2 to be actionable |
| Emmet Sheehan | Emmet Sheehan Under | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.2 | 86 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: Only 0 consensus book(s) with data — need ≥2 to be actionable |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: Only 1 consensus book(s) with data — need ≥2 to be actionable |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Under | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | D | PASS | research | deep | 5.9 | 98 | season+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min |
| Landen Roupp | Landen Roupp Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.5 | -0.9 | D | PASS | research | short | 5.4 | 86 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | D | PASS | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.8 | 94 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Over | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | D | PASS | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.80 | 1.19 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 2.79 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ildemaro Vargas | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.79 | 1.32 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 2.54 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ben Rice | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.65 | 1.02 | 0.86 | 0.77 | 2.48 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Jordan Walker | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1.16 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 2.86 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.61 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 2.60 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| CJ Abrams | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.61 | 1.07 | 0.65 | 0.88 | 2.22 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.55 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 2.77 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | Over 1.5 | 2.53 | 1.10 | 0.56 | 0.86 | 2.52 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.52 | 1.17 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 2.20 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| James Wood | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.66 | 1.94 / Over | 0.40 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Aaron Judge | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.66 | 2.19 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Pedro Pages | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 1.41 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 2.52 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.42 | 1.01 | 0.83 | 0.59 | 2.41 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Otto Lopez | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.38 | 1.34 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 2.20 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Liam Hicks | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.37 | 0.96 | 0.49 | 0.93 | 2.49 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Yandy Diaz | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.36 | 1.39 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 2.49 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Cody Bellinger | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 0.95 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 2.07 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.32 | 0.98 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 2.68 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Kyle Schwarber | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.31 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 2.25 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.31 | 1.07 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 2.05 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Xavier Edwards | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.29 | 1.19 | 0.73 | 0.37 | 2.23 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.28 | 0.94 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 2.07 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Daylen Lile | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.27 | 1.03 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 2.11 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.27 | 0.99 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 1.92 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Alec Burleson | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 1.10 | 0.44 | 0.72 | 2.32 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ TOP PICK | Existing Top Pick rule: Grade A + 100% book consensus + raw edge cushion. |
| ✅ Best Play | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| 👀 Strong Watch | Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick. |
| 🔬 Research Lead | Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears. |
| ⛔ Paused Signal | Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable. |
Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.