| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 172W–172L–4P | 50% | -32.78 u | Last 14 days • 348 settled |
| Grade A | 40W–27L–0P | 60% | +2.66 u | |
| Grade B | 132W–145L–4P | 48% | -35.44 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 483W–455L–7P | 51% | -64.11 u | All-time • 945 settled |
| Grade A | 101W–75L–0P | 57% | +0.77 u | |
| Grade B | 382W–380L–7P | 50% | -64.87 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Run Line | Los Angeles Angels | +1.5 | 119 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Los Angele |
| 2026-05-15 | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft | 5.5 | -137 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Braxton Ashcraft: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-15 | K Prop | Jack Leiter | 5.5 | -128 | - | WIN | +0.781 | Jack Leiter: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-15 | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti | 5.5 | -116 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Spencer Arrighetti: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | TRUSTED | 176 | 55% | -5.83u | 74 | 58% | +1.99u | 89 | 61% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | TRUSTED | 97 | 63% | +11.34u | 37 | 65% | +7.28u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | TRUSTED | 71 | 58% | +5.60u | 27 | 52% | -2.79u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 13 | 40% | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | WATCH | 16 | 56% | +0.77u | 11 | 45% | -2.17u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | WATCH | 13 | 85% | +2.46u | 1 | 100% | +0.43u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 2 | 50% | -0.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 19 | 26% | -7.83u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 104 | 39% | -31.69u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| ✓ | Savant: 603 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 243 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 116 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 595 pitcher(s), 2550 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 452 player(s) |
| ⚠ | PLV data unavailable/unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 3 team(s), 27 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 1000 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 2 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Line movement: 2390 market side(s) checked | 2390 opening snapshot(s) created | 0 with movement |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | F5: 15 game(s) fetched | 15 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 2 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | HRR research: 235 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 2 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 493 | batter bats 171 | batter hand splits 171 | pitcher HR splits 75 | batter pitch-type 452 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 262 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:11 PM | -101 | -120 | -1.5 (+153) | +1.5 (-186) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | -101 | -120 | -1.5 (+153) | +1.5 (-186) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+105) | +1.5 (-126) | O/U 11.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 4:06 PM | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+147) | +1.5 (-178) | O/U 10.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | -171 | +141 | -1.5 (-102) | +1.5 (-118) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4:11 PM | +120 | -144 | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (+148) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+128) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | -105 | -114 | -1.5 (+152) | +1.5 (-185) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 7:11 PM | -149 | +123 | -1.5 (+113) | +1.5 (-136) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | -126 | +104 | -1.5 (+129) | +1.5 (-155) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | +105 | -126 | +1.5 (-197) | -1.5 (+161) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | -123 | +102 | -1.5 (+134) | +1.5 (-162) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:16 PM | +141 | -171 | +1.5 (-157) | -1.5 (+130) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | -136 | +113 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | ORI@NAT | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | -154 | DK Over 4.5 -154 | exact | 25.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -117 | 51.5% | 69.5% | +18.0% | $+28.96 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:16 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -122 | 52.5% | 69.3% | +16.8% | $+26.10 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4:11 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -115 | 51.2% | 67.8% | +16.6% | $+26.67 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels (F5) | 9:39 PM | F5 ML | Los Angeles Angels | -105 | 48.0% | 56.5% | +8.6% | $+10.38 | 8 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians (F5) | 6:11 PM | F5 ML | Cincinnati Reds | +130 | 41.1% | 49.4% | +8.4% | $+13.73 | 8 | Bet on DK |
| Game | Time (ET) | Away SP | Home SP | Signal Score | Signal | V2 Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | Eduardo Rodriguez | Tomoyuki Sugano | YRFI MODEL | C PASS |
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:11 PM | Casey Mize / Mason Fluharty | 6.0 / 7.7 | 4.0 / 7.7 | +11.1% | Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (6 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 7:11 PM | Kai-Wei Teng / Jacob deGrom | 5.6 / 7.7 | 3.9 / 7.7 | +8.4% | Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (10 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | Bubba Chandler / Cristopher Sánchez | 5.5 / 7.7 | 4.0 / 7.7 | +8.3% | Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:16 PM | Logan Gilbert / Walker Buehler | 5.4 / 7.7 | 4.1 / 7.7 | +1.9% | Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | Kyle Leahy / Noah Cameron | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.5 / 7.7 | +11.0% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) | 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | José Soriano / Justin Wrobleski | 5.1 / 7.7 | 4.4 / 7.7 | +7.1% | Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Bryce Elder / Payton Tolle | 5.0 / 7.7 | 4.5 / 7.7 | -3.7% | Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (14 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | Davis Martin / Jameson Taillon | 4.8 / 7.7 | 4.7 / 7.7 | +1.2% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | Connor Prielipp / Logan Henderson | 4.8 / 7.7 | 4.7 / 7.7 | +1.0% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (18 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (11 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | Joey Cantillo / Chris Paddack ⚠ Away SP | 4.6 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +1.4% | Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 1.4% < 8% required Away SP (Chris Paddack) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | Huascar Brazobán / Carlos Rodón | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.1 / 7.7 | -3.8% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 4:06 PM | Cade Cavalli / Chris Bassitt | 4.1 / 7.7 | 5.4 / 7.7 | +2.2% | Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 2.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | Luis Severino / Trevor McDonald | 4.1 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -0.8% | Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4:11 PM | Nick Martinez / Sandy Alcantara | 3.7 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | -12.2% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 42.0% | 23.2% | +18.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | - | Bubba Chandler (R) | theScore Bet | +250 | - | 42.0% | 26.4% | +15.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | - | Noah Cameron (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 42.0% | 17.1% | +24.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +250 | - | 42.0% | 26.4% | +15.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | - | Huascar Brazobán (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 42.0% | 18.8% | +23.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 42.0% | 17.9% | +24.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | - | Bubba Chandler (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.9% | 17.9% | +24.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | José Soriano (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.7% | 16.4% | +25.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Eduardo Rodriguez (L) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.7% | 17.9% | +23.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | - | Huascar Brazobán (R) | theScore Bet | +240 | - | 41.6% | 27.2% | +14.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | - | Luis Severino (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.4% | 16.4% | +25.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | - | Cristopher Sánchez (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 41.2% | 10.4% | +30.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | - | José Soriano (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 40.5% | 11.7% | +28.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | - | Joey Cantillo (L) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 40.3% | 15.6% | +24.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | - | Trevor McDonald (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 40.2% | 22.0% | +18.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 4:06 PM | - | Chris Bassitt (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 39.9% | 14.3% | +25.6% | 99 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 7:11 PM | - | Jacob deGrom (R) | theScore Bet | +260 | - | 39.9% | 25.8% | +14.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | - | Trevor McDonald (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 39.5% | 24.6% | +14.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Eduardo Rodriguez (L) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 39.1% | 23.2% | +15.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 38.1% | 11.7% | +26.4% | 99 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | 100 | 89.5% | -849 | Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Ian Happ | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | 100 | 88.8% | -790 | Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Ildemaro Vargas, Corbin Carroll | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | 100 | 86.6% | -647 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Juan Soto | Citi Field HR factor 0.93 | Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | 100 | 86.2% | -622 | Casey Schmitt, Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom | Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | 100 | 86.1% | -621 | Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Carter Jensen | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9% | - |
| Watchlist | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 7:11 PM | 100 | 85.7% | -597 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Corey Seager, Jake Burger | Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | - |
| Watchlist | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | 100 | 85.6% | -593 | Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Ryan Jeffers, Jackson Chourio | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | Wind 11 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect | - |
| Watchlist | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | 100 | 85.5% | -588 | Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Angel Martinez, Spencer Steer | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | 100 | 85.3% | -581 | Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz | PNC Park HR factor 0.96 | - |
| Watchlist | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:16 PM | 100 | 85.1% | -571 | Xander Bogaerts, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Ramon Laureano | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 84.2% | -532 | Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | - |
| Watchlist | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 99 | 82.2% | -461 | Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Wilyer Abreu, Michael Harris II | Truist Park HR factor 1.03 | - |
| Watchlist | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4:11 PM | 96 | 81.4% | -437 | Liam Hicks, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Owen Caissie | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | - |
| Watchlist | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 4:06 PM | 100 | 81.2% | -431 | Daylen Lile, James Wood, CJ Abrams, Gunnar Henderson | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:11 PM | 92 | 80.5% | -413 | Kazuma Okamoto, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez, Yohendrick Pinango | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | +1200 | 0.3% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | +1000 | 0.3% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Jeff McNeil | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +1000 | 0.4% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (1 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 4:06 PM | +600 | 0.5% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Cold recent HR form |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | +600 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Cold recent HR form |
| Steven Kwan | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | +1100 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +525 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | +700 | 0.7% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Cold recent HR form |
| Masyn Winn | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | +800 | 0.7% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Bo Bichette | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | +800 | 1.0% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:11 PM | Casey Mize | Mason Fluharty | 0.91 | 19.5% | 51.4% | 8.8% | +10.7% | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 4:06 PM | Cade Cavalli | Chris Bassitt | 1.02 | 18.8% | 50.2% | — | — | |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4:11 PM | Nick Martinez | Sandy Alcantara | 0.94 | 18.6% | 49.9% | — | — | |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Bryce Elder | Payton Tolle | 1.03 | 17.8% | 48.6% | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | José Soriano | Justin Wrobleski | 0.98 | 15.8% | 45.0% | — | — | |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:16 PM | Logan Gilbert | Walker Buehler | 0.92 | 14.9% | 43.3% | — | — | |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:06 PM | Bubba Chandler | Cristopher Sánchez | 0.96 | 14.7% | 42.8% | — | — | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | Joey Cantillo | Chris Paddack | 0.95 | 14.5% | 42.6% | — | — | |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | Connor Prielipp | Logan Henderson | 0.95 | 14.4% | 42.4% | — | — | |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 7:11 PM | Kai-Wei Teng | Jacob deGrom | 1.00 | 14.3% | 42.2% | — | — | |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | Kyle Leahy | Noah Cameron | 0.93 | 13.9% | 41.3% | 10.4% | +3.5% | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | Luis Severino | Trevor McDonald | 1.00 | 13.8% | 41.2% | — | — | |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | Huascar Brazobán | Carlos Rodón | 0.93 | 13.4% | 40.3% | — | — | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | Tomoyuki Sugano | Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.20 | 11.2% | 35.8% | — | — | |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | Davis Martin | Jameson Taillon | 1.00 | 10.5% | 34.2% | — | — |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Risk Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | L | 18.3% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 99 | normal | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Luis Severino | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | R | 21.0% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | R | 23.8% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | R | 18.4% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | L | 27.0% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 94.50 | 5.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Jameson Taillon | Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.3% | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs | R | 27.1% | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 106 | deep | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.8% |
| Chris Paddack | Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.4%, low-K contact opponent 19.8%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 19.9% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 80 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 15.5% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 8.50 | 91.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 24.4% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.2% |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 21.1% | 2.3 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 39 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 20.2% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 26.1% | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 15.5% | 7.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 117 | deep | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 16.4% | 5.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 91 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.8% |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 27.1% | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 72 | short | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 24.6% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.4% |
| Huascar Brazobán | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | R | 19.3% | 1.2 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 20 | short | full | 75.00 | 25.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 12.0% |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | L | 22.3% | - | 4.1 | 5.6 | 94 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+savant+hand | season leash 4.1 IP/GS |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 26.2% | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 109 | deep | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 20.1% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.4% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | R | 23.2% | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 101 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres | R | 24.2% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | R | 20.7% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 18.00 | 82.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | R | 17.6% | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 102 | deep | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | R | 29.2% | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 96 | normal | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Mason Fluharty | Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | L | 25.2% | 1.0 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 17 | short | full | 99.50 | 0.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 24.2% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 80 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | Kyle Leahy Under | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 13.3 | -4.2 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.1 | 84 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree |
| Justin Wrobleski | Justin Wrobleski Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.8 | 117 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs hook-risk gate: deep-start support: season leash 7.4 IP/GS | deep-start support: recent leash 7.0 IP/start | hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9% | deep-start support: assessment deep leash | hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9% -- thin Over capped at C |
| Davis Martin | Davis Martin Over | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 106 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs hook-risk gate: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS | deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start | hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.8% | deep-start support: assessment deep leash | hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.8% -- thin Over capped at C |
| Bryce Elder | Bryce Elder Over | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 18.5 | 20.3 | 1.9 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 109 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree |
| Jameson Taillon | Jameson Taillon Under | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree |
| Luis Severino | Luis Severino Under | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Under | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 18.5 | 17.4 | -1.1 | D | PASS | research | normal | 6.1 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min |
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Over | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | D | PASS | research | deep | 5.9 | 102 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Under | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.9 | 99 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Under | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 17.5 | -0.0 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.6 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.97 | 1.24 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 3.45 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| CJ Abrams | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.69 | 1.07 | 0.68 | 0.94 | 2.62 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.64 | 1.09 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 2.66 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Oneil Cruz | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.64 | 1.08 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 2.33 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1.34 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 2.95 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 1.04 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 2.46 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 1.20 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 2.67 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Mickey Moniak | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | Over 1.5 | 2.57 | 1.12 | 0.65 | 0.80 | 2.56 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=37,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ivan Herrera | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.55 | 1.39 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 2.49 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Drake Baldwin | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 0.65 | 2.22 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.48 | 1.11 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 2.45 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Daylen Lile | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.48 | 1.11 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 2.68 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Alec Burleson | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.47 | 1.14 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 2.71 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Matt Olson | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.47 | 1.05 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.96 / Over | 0.40 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Maikel Garcia | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.45 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 0.49 | 2.44 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.42 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 2.61 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.40 | 0.93 | 0.82 | 0.65 | 2.22 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.38 | 1.24 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 2.40 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Yordan Alvarez | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 1.15 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 2.47 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.34 | 1.04 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 2.09 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Riley Greene | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 1.12 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 1.99 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| William Contreras | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 1.08 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 2.12 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Kevin McGonigle | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | Over 1.5 | 2.32 | 1.11 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 1.71 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| JJ Wetherholt | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.31 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 2.41 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.27 | 1.34 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 2.26 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.