| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 192W–184L–4P | 51% | -28.96 u | Last 14 days • 380 settled |
| Grade A | 40W–26L–0P | 61% | +3.52 u | |
| Grade B | 152W–158L–4P | 49% | -32.48 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 478W–447L–7P | 52% | -59.94 u | All-time • 932 settled |
| Grade A | 100W–72L–0P | 58% | +2.99 u | |
| Grade B | 378W–375L–7P | 50% | -62.92 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | K Prop | Chris Sale | 6.5 | -143 | - | WIN | +0.699 | Chris Sale: 8.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-05-14 | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan | 5.5 | -133 | - | WIN | +0.752 | Emmet Sheehan: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-14 | K Prop | Chase Burns | 6.5 | -149 | - | WIN | +0.671 | Chase Burns: 7.0 (line 6.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | TRUSTED | 173 | 55% | -4.61u | 81 | 59% | +4.21u | 86 | 62% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | TRUSTED | 92 | 64% | +12.68u | 39 | 64% | +6.50u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | TRUSTED | 68 | 59% | +6.96u | 24 | 54% | -1.42u | 29 | 72% |
| F5 ML | WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 16 | 42% | +0.20u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | WATCH | 14 | 57% | +1.01u | 10 | 50% | -1.16u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | WATCH | 13 | 85% | +2.46u | 1 | 100% | +0.43u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 5 | 20% | -3.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 25 | 24% | -11.80u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 134 | 47% | -22.48u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| ✓ | Savant: 603 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 241 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 114 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 595 pitcher(s), 2544 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 450 player(s) |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 28 team(s), 252 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 983 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | F5: 15 game(s) fetched | 15 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | HRR research: 231 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 15 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 492 | batter bats 171 | batter hand splits 171 | pitcher HR splits 79 | batter pitch-type 450 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 265 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-188) | -1.5 (+154) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | -137 | +114 | -1.5 (+113) | +1.5 (-136) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 6:46 PM | -126 | +105 | -1.5 (+134) | +1.5 (-162) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | +118 | -142 | +1.5 (-182) | -1.5 (+150) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7:11 PM | +107 | -128 | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+164) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | -109 | -110 | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-175) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | +124 | -149 | +1.5 (-167) | -1.5 (+137) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | -149 | +123 | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 7.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | -132 | +109 | -1.5 (+130) | +1.5 (-157) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+141) | +1.5 (-171) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | -111 | -108 | -1.5 (+139) | +1.5 (-168) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | -123 | +102 | -1.5 (+122) | +1.5 (-148) | O/U 11.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | -187 | +153 | -1.5 (-115) | +1.5 (-105) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-185) | -1.5 (+152) | O/U 10.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-199) | -1.5 (+163) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Over | RAN@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | -136 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price | 24.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | Run Line | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 | DOD@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | -105 | Bovada Direct Los Angeles Angels 1.5 +100 | best price | +19.8% | –✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 6:46 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -105 | 49.0% | 75.4% | +26.4% | $+47.28 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -115 | 51.2% | 76.3% | +25.1% | $+42.73 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -114 | 51.0% | 74.0% | +23.0% | $+38.88 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| A | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Run Line | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 | -105 | 48.9% | 68.7% | +19.8% | $+34.22 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -102 | 48.2% | 67.6% | +19.5% | $+33.94 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | Total | Over 8.0 | -105 | 49.0% | 67.3% | +18.3% | $+31.34 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | Total | Under 10.0 | -118 | 51.7% | 68.7% | +17.0% | $+26.93 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | Total | Over 8.5 | -112 | 50.5% | 67.0% | +16.5% | $+26.88 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels (F5) | 9:39 PM | F5 ML | Los Angeles Angels | +145 | 38.5% | 50.4% | +11.9% | $+23.43 | 8 | Bet on DK |
| Game | Time (ET) | Away SP | Home SP | Signal Score | Signal | V2 Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Shane Baz | Zack Littell | YRFI MODEL | C PASS |
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Spencer Strider / Connelly Early | 5.8 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +7.7% | Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (10 PA < 30 gate) |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | Braxton Ashcraft / Aaron Nola | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.8 / 7.7 | +4.0% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 4.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | Clay Holmes / Cam Schlittler | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.8 / 7.7 | +0.7% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 0.7% < 8% required |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | Joe Ryan / Coleman Crow | 4.9 / 7.7 | 5.1 / 7.7 | -0.2% | Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Emerson Hancock / Randy Vásquez | 4.8 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | +1.0% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.0% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | Aaron Civale / Tyler Mahle | 4.0 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | +0.4% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 0.4% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7:11 PM | Ian Seymour / Janson Junk | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -11.6% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Sean Burke / Edward Cabrera | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -15.4% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -15.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | Dustin May / Michael Wacha | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -7.1% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -7.1% < 8% required |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 6:46 PM | Brenan Hanifee / Trey Yesavage | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -15.3% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -15.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (6 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | Spencer Arrighetti / Jack Leiter | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -11.9% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Jack Kochanowicz / Will Klein | 3.0 / 7.7 | 7.0 / 7.7 | -14.1% | Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -14.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | Tanner Bibee / Andrew Abbott | 2.8 / 7.7 | 7.2 / 7.7 | -25.9% | Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -25.9% < 8% required |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Kyle Freeland / Merrill Kelly ⚠ Away SP | 2.4 / 7.7 | 6.9 / 7.7 | -11.0% | Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -11.0% < 8% required Away SP (Merrill Kelly) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 2 | Connelly Early (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 42.0% | 15.0% | +27.0% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | 2 | Tyler Mahle (R) | theScore Bet | +230 | - | 42.0% | 28.0% | +13.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 4 | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 42.0% | 19.7% | +22.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 4 | Connelly Early (L) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 42.0% | 16.4% | +25.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | 1 | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | 3 | Jack Leiter (R) | theScore Bet | +260 | - | 41.9% | 25.8% | +16.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | James Wood | Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 1 | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.9% | 20.8% | +21.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | 2 | Merrill Kelly (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 41.9% | 24.6% | +17.3% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 6:46 PM | 4 | Brenan Hanifee (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.9% | 17.9% | +24.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 6 | Jack Kochanowicz (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.8% | 20.8% | +21.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | 6 | Tanner Bibee (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 41.8% | 11.7% | +30.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | 4 | Michael Wacha (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.8% | 19.7% | +22.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | 5 | Kyle Freeland (L) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 41.8% | 14.3% | +27.5% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 2 | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.7% | 23.2% | +18.5% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | 2 | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 41.6% | 18.8% | +22.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 4 | Sean Burke (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.6% | 16.4% | +25.2% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | 1 | Tyler Mahle (R) | theScore Bet | +250 | - | 41.5% | 26.4% | +15.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | 3 | Clay Holmes (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 41.4% | 22.0% | +19.3% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | 3 | Tanner Bibee (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 41.3% | 15.6% | +25.7% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | 4 | Jack Leiter (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.2% | 17.1% | +24.1% | 99 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 100 | 94.4% | -1690 | James Wood, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Daylen Lile | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 100 | 93.8% | -1527 | Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Ian Happ, Miguel Vargas | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | Wind 14 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 100 | 93.6% | -1471 | Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Wilyer Abreu | Truist Park HR factor 1.03 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.4% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | 100 | 92.8% | -1280 | Mickey Moniak, Ildemaro Vargas, Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | 100 | 92.0% | -1143 | Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Kyle Schwarber, Ryan O'Hearn | PNC Park HR factor 0.96 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | 100 | 90.8% | -987 | Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Casey Schmitt, Tyler Soderstrom | Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 | Wind 10 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | 100 | 90.1% | -907 | Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Pedro Pages | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Wind 12 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 89.4% | -840 | Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Mike Trout | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | 100 | 89.3% | -837 | Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, Angel Martinez, Elly De La Cruz | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | 100 | 89.3% | -833 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Jake Burger, Zach Cole | Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | 100 | 89.1% | -821 | Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Juan Soto | Citi Field HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | 100 | 87.0% | -670 | Xander Bogaerts, Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | Precip chance 52% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0% | - |
| Watchlist | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7:11 PM | 96 | 82.6% | -475 | Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Esteury Ruiz | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | - |
| Watchlist | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 6:46 PM | 100 | 80.5% | -412 | Kazuma Okamoto, Dillon Dingler, Brandon Valenzuela, George Springer | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | - |
| Pass | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | 84 | 73.8% | -282 | Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Ryan Jeffers, Ryan Kreidler | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 26.2%, P(U1.5) 61.3% |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Durbin | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | +1100 | 0.3% | Low lineup spot (9) | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | High-whiff arsenal | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (5 PA) |
| Kyle Karros | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +900 | 0.5% | Low lineup spot (9) | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | +1000 | 0.5% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Masyn Winn | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | +1000 | 0.5% | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +475 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Wind 10 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN | Cold recent HR form |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | +525 | 0.6% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +1000 | 0.7% | Low lineup spot (9) | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Wind 10 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN | Cold recent HR form |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +550 | 0.7% | Low lineup spot (8) | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Steven Kwan | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | +1200 | 0.7% | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Brett Baty | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | +900 | 0.8% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 7:11 PM | Joe Ryan | Coleman Crow | 0.95 | 26.2% MODEL SIGNAL | 61.3% MODEL SIGNAL | 7.7% | +18.5% | No HR C PASS U1.5 C PASS |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 6:46 PM | Brenan Hanifee | Trey Yesavage | 0.91 | 19.5% | 51.4% | 9.7% | +9.8% | |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7:11 PM | Ian Seymour | Janson Junk | 0.94 | 17.4% | 47.8% | 9.7% | +7.7% | |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Emerson Hancock | Randy Vásquez | 0.92 | 13.0% | 39.5% | 11.5% | +1.5% | |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 7:16 PM | Clay Holmes | Cam Schlittler | 0.93 | 10.9% | 35.0% | 8.5% | +2.3% | |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | Spencer Arrighetti | Jack Leiter | 1.00 | 10.7% | 34.6% | 5.7% | +5.0% | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:11 PM | Tanner Bibee | Andrew Abbott | 0.95 | 10.7% | 34.5% | 9.7% | +0.9% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Jack Kochanowicz | Will Klein | 0.98 | 10.6% | 34.5% | 6.2% | +4.4% | |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8:16 PM | Dustin May | Michael Wacha | 0.93 | 9.9% | 32.9% | 7.7% | +2.2% | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | Aaron Civale | Tyler Mahle | 1.00 | 9.2% | 31.1% | 6.3% | +2.9% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | Braxton Ashcraft | Aaron Nola | 0.96 | 8.0% | 28.3% | 9.4% | -1.3% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Kyle Freeland | Merrill Kelly | 1.20 | 7.2% | 26.3% | 4.3% | +3.0% | |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Spencer Strider | Connelly Early | 1.03 | 6.4% | 23.9% | 9.5% | -3.1% | |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Sean Burke | Edward Cabrera | 1.00 | 6.1% | 23.3% | 6.4% | -0.3% | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Zack Littell | Shane Baz | 1.02 | 5.6% | 21.7% | 5.3% | +0.3% |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Risk Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | R | 19.4% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Spencer Strider | Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | R | 27.8% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | R | 20.3% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | L | 21.7% | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 96 | normal | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Edward Cabrera | Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | R | 22.9% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs | R | 20.0% | 5.7 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 96 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.8% |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 18.8% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%, low-K contact opponent 19.9% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 23.3% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 22.1% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Brenan Hanifee | Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 18.8% | 1.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 24 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.2% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 23.4% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 26.50 | 73.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 20.8% | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 101 | deep | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Jack Kochanowicz | Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 16.8% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Will Klein | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 22.8% | 1.3 | - | 4.9 | 22 | short | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 19.7% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.8% |
| Coleman Crow | Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 22.3% | - | 5.1 | 5.7 | 95 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+savant+hand | season leash 5.1 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 23.5% | 6.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.6% |
| Clay Holmes | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | R | 20.6% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 12.1% |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | R | 25.9% | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 22.9% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 24.9% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | R | 22.1% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | R | 22.8% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 89 | normal | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres | R | 25.2% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | R | 19.4% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 97 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | L | 23.7% | 1.0 | - | 4.8 | 17 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Jack Leiter | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | R | 23.8% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | R | 24.2% | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 89.50 | 10.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 13.4% | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 69 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | Spencer Strider Under | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 13.8 | -3.7 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.4 | 76 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.2 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 20% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Braxton Ashcraft Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Emerson Hancock | Emerson Hancock Over | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs trust gate: thin raw gap 1.9 -- A capped at B |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 40% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Janson Junk | Janson Junk Under | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away back-to-back |
| Jack Leiter | Jack Leiter Under | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs Under gate: raw gap 1.4 without hook-risk support -- capped at C |
| Joe Ryan | Joe Ryan Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 33% (3 books) — strongly disagree |
| Dustin May | Dustin May Under | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.4 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.5 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 3.06 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 2.58 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=38,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| James Wood | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.95 | 0.99 | 1.16 | 0.80 | 2.45 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| CJ Abrams | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.95 | 1.10 | 0.71 | 1.15 | 2.55 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jordan Walker | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.94 | 1.18 | 0.85 | 0.91 | 2.65 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Drake Baldwin | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.92 | 1.30 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 2.88 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Oneil Cruz | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.90 | 1.22 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 2.67 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | Over 1.5 | 2.89 | 1.33 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 2.59 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Matt Olson | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.89 | 1.20 | 0.79 | 0.91 | 2.90 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Yordan Alvarez | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Over 1.5 | 2.82 | 1.26 | 0.72 | 0.84 | 2.57 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| William Contreras | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.67 | 1.15 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 2.27 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 2.48 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Mike Trout | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 2.04 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.59 | 1.10 | 0.84 | 0.65 | 2.54 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.58 | 1.04 | 0.60 | 0.94 | 2.45 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.56 | 1.14 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 2.45 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Alec Burleson | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.55 | 1.13 | 0.56 | 0.87 | 2.25 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | Over 1.5 | 2.55 | 1.43 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 2.36 / Over | 0.59 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| JJ Wetherholt | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.54 | 2.17 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jonathan Aranda | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.53 | 1.06 | 0.57 | 0.90 | 2.32 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Daylen Lile | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 2.26 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ozzie Albies | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 2.46 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Brandon Lowe | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 1.03 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 2.36 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=38,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | Over 1.5 | 2.49 | 1.18 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 2.19 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.48 | 1.01 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 2.43 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Shea Langeliers | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | Over 2.5 | 3.47 | 1.54 | 1.10 | 0.83 | 2.95 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.