| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 201W–205L–5P | 50% | -42.19 u | Last 14 days • 411 settled |
| Grade A | 40W–29L–0P | 58% | +0.65 u | |
| Grade B | 161W–176L–5P | 48% | -42.85 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 472W–447L–7P | 51% | -64.62 u | All-time • 926 settled |
| Grade A | 97W–72L–0P | 57% | +0.86 u | |
| Grade B | 375W–375L–7P | 50% | -65.48 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski | 7.5 | -131 | - | WIN | +0.763 | Jacob Misiorowski: 10.0 (line 7.5) |
| 2026-05-13 | K Prop | Shohei Ohtani | 6.5 | -119 | - | WIN | +0.840 | Shohei Ohtani: 8.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-05-13 | K Prop | Shota Imanaga | 5.5 | -119 | - | WIN | +0.840 | Shota Imanaga: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-13 | K Prop | JT Ginn | 4.5 | -123 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | J.T. Ginn: 3.0 (line 4.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 601 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 239 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 111 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 22 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 16 team(s), 144 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 22 roster team(s), 286 hitter(s) | 22 SP matchup(s), 637 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 9 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 22 team(s) | Back-to-back: Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 22 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals |
| ✓ | Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | F5: 4 game(s) fetched | 4 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 4 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 2 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 490 | batter bats 172 | batter hand splits 174 | pitcher HR splits 80 | batter pitch-type 448 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 70 batter(s) scored | 4 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+157) | +1.5 (-192) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | +149 | -181 | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+119) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | -137 | +114 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-144) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +149 | -181 | +1.5 (-137) | -1.5 (+114) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | GIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | -138 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price | 26.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -120 | 52.1% | 68.0% | +15.9% | $+24.59 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -102 | 48.2% | 63.9% | +15.8% | $+26.60 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | 7:16 PM | F5 ML | Chicago Cubs | +150 | 37.7% | 47.3% | +9.6% | $+18.24 | 7 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | Emmet Sheehan / Landen Roupp | 7.2 / 7.7 | 2.8 / 7.7 | +26.1% | Score 7.2 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Chris Sale / Ben Brown | 6.2 / 7.7 | 3.8 / 7.7 | +11.8% | Score 6.2 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | Ranger Suarez / Jesús Luzardo | 6.1 / 7.7 | 3.9 / 7.7 | +8.0% | Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 8.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Anthony Kay / Kris Bubic | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -10.7% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | - | Ranger Suarez (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.7% | 19.7% | +22.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Kris Bubic (L) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 39.8% | 16.4% | +23.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Kris Bubic (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 39.6% | 19.7% | +19.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | - | Ranger Suarez (L) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 38.7% | 14.3% | +24.5% | 99 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 1 | Ben Brown (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 35.9% | 16.4% | +19.5% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Kris Bubic (L) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 34.4% | 15.6% | +18.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Emmet Sheehan (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 32.8% | 16.4% | +16.4% | 99 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Landen Roupp (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 26.6% | 14.3% | +12.3% | 89 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 3 | Ben Brown (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 26.3% | 22.0% | +4.3% | 88 |
| Best HR Chance | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 23.6% | 17.9% | +5.7% | 78 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Landen Roupp (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 20.6% | 18.8% | +1.9% | 69 |
| Strong HR Chance | Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | 4 | Jesús Luzardo (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 16.6% | 15.0% | +1.7% | 55 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 4 | Ben Brown (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 12.6% | 15.6% | -3.0% | 42 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 2 | Ben Brown (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 12.6% | 14.3% | -1.7% | 42 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | 3 | Jesús Luzardo (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.1% | 11.7% | -0.6% | 37 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Vinnie Pasquantino | Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 11.1% | 13.3% | -2.2% | 37 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Heliot Ramos | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Emmet Sheehan (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 10.2% | 14.3% | -4.1% | 34 |
| Deep HR Chance | Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Emmet Sheehan (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 9.8% | 18.8% | -9.0% | 32 |
| Deep HR Chance | Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 6 | Ben Brown (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 8.2% | 16.4% | -8.2% | 27 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 100 | 92.0% | -1153 | Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki | Truist Park HR factor 1.03 | Wind 13 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.0% | - |
| Watchlist | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 100 | 85.7% | -598 | Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Salvador Perez | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | - |
| Watchlist | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | 100 | 84.3% | -536 | Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez, Andy Pages, Max Muncy | Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 | - |
| Watchlist | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | 97 | 80.2% | -404 | Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu | Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 | Precip chance 68% -- delay/postponement risk | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Durbin | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | +1100 | 0.3% | Low lineup spot (8) | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | High-whiff arsenal | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (6 PA) |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +550 | 0.5% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jung Hoo Lee | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +900 | 0.9% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Trevor Story | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | +800 | 1.3% | Elite strikeout pitcher | High-whiff arsenal | Weak batter split vs_lhp |
| Chase Meidroth | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | +1100 | 1.5% | Team lineup not posted | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | BvP strikeout risk |
| Willy Adames | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +475 | 1.5% | Team lineup not posted | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | +900 | 1.5% | Team lineup not posted | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Wind 13 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN |
| Justin Crawford | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | +1200 | 1.7% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin batter split sample vs_lhp (20 PA) | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) |
| Will Smith | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +500 | 1.7% | Team lineup not posted | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin batter pitch-type sample (5 PA) | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | +700 | 1.8% | Team lineup not posted | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | Ranger Suarez | Jesús Luzardo | 0.95 | 19.8% | 51.9% | 14.1% | +5.7% | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | Emmet Sheehan | Landen Roupp | 0.97 | 15.7% | 44.8% | — | — | |
| Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Anthony Kay | Kris Bubic | 1.00 | 14.3% | 42.2% | — | — | |
| Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | Chris Sale | Ben Brown | 1.03 | 8.0% | 28.2% | 9.1% | -1.2% |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Risk Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 18.7% | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 59 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | L | 28.3% | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 111 | deep | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.9% |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 22.9% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 101 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Ben Brown | Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | R | 21.5% | 2.0 | 29.2 | 6.9 | 34 | short | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | L | 17.5% | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 65 | short | full | 9.50 | 90.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | R | 25.7% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Chase Dollander | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.6% | 4.9 | 21.5 | 8.1 | 82 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | R | 18.4% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 89 | normal | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners | R | 22.7% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Kris Bubic | Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | L | 22.7% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | R | 27.5% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Braxton Garrett | Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | L | 27.7% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | R | 29.4% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 85.00 | 15.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | L | 26.4% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Mason Montgomery | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | L | 26.6% | 1.0 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 17 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 24.1% | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 57 | short | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.6% |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 27.6% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 80.00 | 20.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | R | 22.0% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 21.50 | 78.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | R | 22.1% | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 80 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 22.8% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic | Kris Bubic Under | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min |
| Chris Sale | Chris Sale Over | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 18.5 | 18.6 | 0.1 | D | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 111 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.