| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 212W–215L–5P | 50% | -44.09 u | Last 14 days • 432 settled |
| Grade A | 39W–30L–0P | 57% | -1.31 u | |
| Grade B | 173W–185L–5P | 48% | -42.78 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 465W–444L–7P | 51% | -67.54 u | All-time • 916 settled |
| Grade A | 94W–71L–0P | 57% | -0.58 u | |
| Grade B | 371W–373L–7P | 50% | -66.96 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | K Prop | Tatsuya Imai | 4.5 | -162 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Tatsuya Imai: 3.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-12 | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 5.5 | -156 | - | WIN | +0.641 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-12 | K Prop | Shane McClanahan | 4.5 | -133 | - | WIN | +0.752 | Shane McClanahan: 7.0 (line 4.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 595 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 238 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 104 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ⚠ | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 1631 career PA |
| ⚠ | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, San Diego Padres |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers |
| ✓ | Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 13 game(s) fetched | 13 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 484 | batter bats 176 | batter hand splits 176 | pitcher HR splits 81 | batter pitch-type 441 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 256 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | -173 | +142 | -1.5 (+105) | +1.5 (-126) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:11 PM | +129 | -156 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | +139 | -168 | +1.5 (-149) | -1.5 (+123) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | +153 | -186 | +1.5 (-136) | -1.5 (+113) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+135) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets | 7:11 PM | -116 | -104 | -1.5 (+145) | +1.5 (-176) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-175) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | -126 | +104 | -1.5 (+129) | +1.5 (-156) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | +129 | -156 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | +102 | -122 | -1.5 (+157) | +1.5 (-191) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | -126 | +104 | -1.5 (+129) | +1.5 (-156) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+129) | O/U 10.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +199 | -246 | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | PAD@BRE | 7:41 PM | 7.5 | -131 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -122 | best price | 18.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -115 | 51.1% | 68.3% | +17.3% | $+27.78 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:11 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -108 | 49.6% | 65.8% | +16.2% | $+26.70 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | 10:11 PM | F5 ML | San Francisco Giants | +180 | 33.7% | 45.8% | +12.1% | $+28.12 | 6 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:11 PM | Parker Messick / Reid Detmers | 7.0 / 7.7 | 3.0 / 7.7 | +18.0% | Score 7.0 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Jacob Misiorowski / Michael King | 6.1 / 7.7 | 3.9 / 7.7 | +9.9% | Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | Shohei Ohtani / Robbie Ray | 6.1 / 7.7 | 3.9 / 7.7 | +10.4% | Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | Kyle Bradish / Max Fried | 6.0 / 7.7 | 4.0 / 7.7 | +15.3% | Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | Dylan Cease / Griffin Jax | 5.9 / 7.7 | 4.1 / 7.7 | +11.8% | Score 5.9 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (10 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | JR Ritchie / Shota Imanaga | 5.1 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | +2.4% | Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 2.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (12 PA < 30 gate) |
| Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets | 7:11 PM | Christian Scott / Framber Valdez | 4.7 / 7.7 | 5.3 / 7.7 | -4.3% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (16 PA < 30 gate) |
| Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | Lance McCullers Jr. / Bryce Miller ⚠ Away SP | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -0.3% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -0.3% < 8% required Away SP (Bryce Miller) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Simeon Woods Richardson / Max Meyer | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -2.4% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.4% < 8% required |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | Kumar Rocker / Ryne Nelson | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -7.4% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -7.4% < 8% required |
| Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | Nick Lodolo / Jake Irvin | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -7.7% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -7.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | J.T. Ginn / Matthew Liberatore | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -2.1% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) |
| Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | Mitch Keller / Jose Quintana | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -10.9% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Noah Schultz / Seth Lugo | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -15.2% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -15.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | Sonny Gray / Andrew Painter | 2.9 / 7.7 | 7.1 / 7.7 | -16.8% | Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | James Wood | Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | - | Nick Lodolo (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 42.0% | 19.7% | +22.3% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | - | Sonny Gray (R) | theScore Bet | +260 | - | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | - | Matthew Liberatore (L) | theScore Bet | +250 | - | 42.0% | 26.4% | +15.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | - | Kyle Bradish (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 42.0% | 23.2% | +18.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | - | Jake Irvin (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 42.0% | 17.9% | +24.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | - | Kyle Bradish (R) | theScore Bet | +250 | - | 41.9% | 26.4% | +15.5% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | - | Griffin Jax (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.9% | 17.9% | +24.0% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | - | Sonny Gray (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.9% | 16.4% | +25.5% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Robbie Ray (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.8% | 19.7% | +22.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | - | Simeon Woods Richardson (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 41.8% | 11.7% | +30.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Seth Lugo (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 41.8% | 22.0% | +19.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | - | JR Ritchie (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 41.8% | 15.6% | +26.1% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | - | Jake Irvin (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.6% | 20.8% | +20.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | - | Jose Quintana (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.6% | 17.1% | +24.5% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | - | J.T. Ginn (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.3% | 17.1% | +24.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Spencer Steer | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | - | Jake Irvin (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 41.2% | 16.4% | +24.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Robbie Ray (L) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.0% | 17.1% | +23.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | - | Bryce Miller (R) | theScore Bet | +240 | - | 40.5% | 27.2% | +13.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | - | Seth Lugo (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 40.5% | 18.8% | +21.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Brady House | Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | - | Nick Lodolo (L) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 40.4% | 13.3% | +27.2% | 99 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | 100 | 88.3% | -754 | Corbin Carroll, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Ildemaro Vargas | Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | 100 | 87.5% | -703 | Ian Happ, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies | Truist Park HR factor 1.03 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.4% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | 100 | 87.5% | -702 | Shea Langeliers, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson | Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | 100 | 86.6% | -645 | James Wood, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer | Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | 100 | 86.1% | -622 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley | Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9% | - |
| Watchlist | Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 100 | 85.5% | -587 | Liam Hicks, Byron Buxton, Otto Lopez, Ryan Jeffers | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | 100 | 85.0% | -566 | Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Jesus Rodriguez, Freddie Freeman | Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 | - |
| Watchlist | Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | 100 | 84.3% | -538 | Oneil Cruz, Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Marcell Ozuna | PNC Park HR factor 0.96 | - |
| Watchlist | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | 100 | 84.3% | -537 | Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets | American Family Field HR factor 1.08 | - |
| Watchlist | Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets | 7:11 PM | 100 | 84.0% | -526 | Dillon Dingler, Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Spencer Torkelson | Citi Field HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | 100 | 83.7% | -514 | Kazuma Okamoto, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Jesus Sanchez | Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 | - |
| Watchlist | Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | 100 | 83.5% | -504 | Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu | Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 | Cold (44F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:11 PM | 98 | 82.6% | -474 | Mike Trout, Oswald Peraza, Rhys Hoskins, Angel Martinez | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | 100 | 82.5% | -471 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham | Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 | - |
| Watchlist | Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 100 | 81.2% | -433 | Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Jarred Kelenic | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | +800 | 0.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +600 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal |
| Steven Kwan | Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:11 PM | +1400 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (6 PA) |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | +1000 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | +1000 | 0.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Garrett Mitchell | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | +600 | 0.5% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Kyle Karros | Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | +1100 | 0.5% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +1100 | 0.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Masyn Winn | St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | +1100 | 0.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jung Hoo Lee | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +1000 | 0.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Noah Schultz | Seth Lugo | 1.00 | 18.8% | 50.2% | — | — | |
| New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | 1:06 PM | Kyle Bradish | Max Fried | 1.00 | 17.5% | 48.0% | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:11 PM | Parker Messick | Reid Detmers | 0.95 | 17.4% | 47.8% | — | — | |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | 6:46 PM | Sonny Gray | Andrew Painter | 0.95 | 16.6% | 46.3% | — | — | |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | Dylan Cease | Griffin Jax | 0.96 | 16.3% | 45.8% | — | — | |
| Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets | 7:11 PM | Christian Scott | Framber Valdez | 0.93 | 16.0% | 45.3% | — | — | |
| San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Jacob Misiorowski | Michael King | 1.08 | 15.7% | 44.8% | — | — | |
| Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:41 PM | Mitch Keller | Jose Quintana | 0.96 | 15.7% | 44.7% | — | — | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | Shohei Ohtani | Robbie Ray | 0.97 | 15.0% | 43.5% | — | — | |
| Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Simeon Woods Richardson | Max Meyer | 0.95 | 14.6% | 42.6% | — | — | |
| Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | Lance McCullers Jr. | Bryce Miller | 1.00 | 13.9% | 41.2% | — | — | |
| Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:41 PM | Nick Lodolo | Jake Irvin | 1.15 | 13.4% | 40.4% | — | — | |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics | 9:41 PM | J.T. Ginn | Matthew Liberatore | 1.00 | 12.5% | 38.4% | — | — | |
| Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves | 7:16 PM | JR Ritchie | Shota Imanaga | 1.03 | 12.4% | 38.4% | — | — | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | Kumar Rocker | Ryne Nelson | 1.10 | 11.7% | 36.8% | — | — |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.