MLB Bets 2026-05-11

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	244W–243L–5P	50%	-43.22 u	Last 14 days • 492 settled
Grade A	40W–39L–0P	51%	-9.46 u
Grade B	204W–204L–5P	50%	-33.76 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	454W–439L–7P	51%	-70.71 u	All-time • 900 settled
Grade A	89W–70L–0P	56%	-3.17 u
Grade B	365W–369L–7P	50%	-67.54 u

8 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-10	Run Line	Chicago White Sox	+1.5	-156	-	WIN	+0.641	Final: Seattle Mariners 1, Chicago White
2026-05-10	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	4.5	-123	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cade Cavalli: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-10	K Prop	Davis Martin	4.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Davis Martin: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-10	K Prop	Carlos Rodon	4.5	-124	-	LOSS	-1.000	Carlos Rodón: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-10	K Prop	Bryce Elder	4.5	-139	-	WIN	+0.719	Bryce Elder: 8.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-10	K Prop	Jameson Taillon	4.5	-129	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jameson Taillon: 4.0 (line 4.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 594 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 237 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 104 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 12 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 10 team(s), 90 player(s)
✓	BVP context: 12 roster team(s), 156 hitter(s) \| 12 SP matchup(s), 485 career PA
✓	Umpires confirmed: 5 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 12 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
✓	Bullpen data: 12 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: San Francisco Giants
✓	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 6 game(s) fetched \| 6 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 6 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 5 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 484 \| batter bats 177 \| batter hand splits 177 \| pitcher HR splits 73 \| batter pitch-type 440 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	HR model: 103 batter(s) scored \| 6 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	+141	-171	+1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	-149	+124	-1.5 (+105)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+102	-122	-1.5 (+172)	+1.5 (-210)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-193)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+159	-194	+1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

3 Grade A  |  3 Grade B  |  382 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 3 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	K Prop	Peter Lambert Over	MAR@AST	8:11 PM	4.5	-144	FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 \| best price	45.7%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Kevin Gausman Over	RAY@JAY	7:08 PM	4.5	-151	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150 \| best price	28.0%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Ryan Weathers Over	YAN@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	-136	FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 \| best price	27.9%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (-144) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 45.7% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.06K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.14)
Peter Lambert: K/9 8.9, proj 6.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 5.5 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)
Umpire: Dillon Wilson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Peter Lambert: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .471 | OPS 1.609
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.75 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 (-151) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.26K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Kevin Gausman: K/9 7.3, proj 5.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Split-Finger (39% whiff, 40% usage)
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 93 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 93 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.38 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 over 4.5
K% trend: headwind -9.2 ppts (recent 14.0% vs season 23.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (-136) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 27.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.53K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Ryan Weathers: K/9 9.7, proj 7.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Sweeper (49% whiff, 20% usage)
Umpire: Nic Lentz — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 34 PA | K% 32.4% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .233 | OPS .661
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.43 | Season Avg 6.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (3 play(s))

B GOOD ADD Run Line — Los Angeles Angels +1.5 1.5 (-156) edge 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Los Angeles Angels 1.5 -146 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN
Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+14.78/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 11.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 4 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -156 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Brent Suter (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Joey Cantillo small sample (39 IP) — stats 48% actual / 52% league avg (regression applied)
Brent Suter small sample (22 IP) — stats 27% actual / 73% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-156) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-131) edge 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet San Francisco Giants 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

[IL] Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Erik Miller (San Francisco Giants) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Paul Gervase (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Brock Stewart (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+15.38/$100
✓ Cover prob 65.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 11.2% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -131 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Roki Sasaki (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Trevor McDonald (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Roki Sasaki small sample (28 IP) — stats 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)
Trevor McDonald small sample (7 IP) — stats 8% actual / 92% league avg (regression applied)
Los Angeles Dodgers small sample — offense 49% actual / 51% league avg (regression applied)
San Francisco Giants small sample — offense 49% actual / 51% league avg (regression applied)

B GOOD ADD Run Line — Baltimore Orioles +1.5 1.5 (-126) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Baltimore Orioles 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Enixon Sanchez (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Juan Nuñez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Dean Kremer (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+14.17/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 0 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Camden Yards (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Brandon Young small sample (20 IP) — stats 25% actual / 75% league avg (regression applied)
Ryan Weathers small sample (38 IP) — stats 47% actual / 53% league avg (regression applied)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-119	52.0%	70.7%	+18.7%	$+30.07	9	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-112	50.4%	65.5%	+15.1%	$+23.95	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers (Total) +18.7%

[INJ] Philip Abner (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Chris Martin (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 7.5 [April dampening ×0.99]
Home SP: Jakob Junis (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Soroka (RHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Jakob Junis small sample (16 IP) — stats 20% actual / 80% league avg (regression applied)
Michael Soroka small sample (37 IP) — stats 46% actual / 54% league avg (regression applied)
Texas Rangers small sample — offense 49% actual / 51% league avg (regression applied)
Arizona Diamondbacks small sample — offense 48% actual / 52% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians (Total) +15.1%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5 [April dampening ×0.99]
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Brent Suter (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Joey Cantillo small sample (39 IP) — stats 48% actual / 52% league avg (regression applied)
Brent Suter small sample (22 IP) — stats 27% actual / 73% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	+135	40.1%	51.5%	+11.5%	$+21.13	8	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians (F5)	6:11 PM	F5 ML	Los Angeles Angels	+124	42.0%	50.9%	+8.9%	$+14.01	8	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +11.5%

[IL] Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Erik Miller (San Francisco Giants) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Paul Gervase (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Brock Stewart (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Roki Sasaki xFIP 4.53
Trevor McDonald xFIP 4.00
Home SP: Roki Sasaki (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor McDonald (RHP)

C Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians (F5) (F5 ML) +8.9%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL)
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.26
Brent Suter xFIP 4.01
Home SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Away SP: Brent Suter (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (6 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Peter Lambert / George Kirby	5.2 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	+3.9%	Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate)
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	Joey Cantillo / Brent Suter	5.2 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	+4.9%	Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 4.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate)
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki / Trevor McDonald	5.1 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	+9.3%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Kevin Gausman / Drew Rasmussen	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	-4.9%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate)
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Brandon Young / Ryan Weathers	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-3.3%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -3.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Jakob Junis / Michael Soroka	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-15.3%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -15.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by model HR probability first; odds/edge are context, not the primary ranking

HR props parsed: 103 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=103
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score
Strong HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	2	Joey Cantillo (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	18.0%	18.8%	-0.8%	99
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	2	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	18.0%	26.4%	-8.4%	99
Best HR Chance	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	3	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	18.0%	29.1%	-11.1%	99
Best HR Chance	Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	18.0%	15.0%	+3.0%	99
Strong HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	4	Drew Rasmussen (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	18.0%	18.8%	-0.8%	99
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	2	Kevin Gausman (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	18.0%	22.0%	-4.0%	99
Best HR Chance	Cody Bellinger	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	4	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	18.0%	15.0%	+3.0%	99
HR Chance Watchlist	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Trevor McDonald (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	18.0%	20.8%	-2.8%	99
Strong HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	2	George Kirby (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	18.0%	24.6%	-6.6%	99
Best HR Chance	Corey Seager	Texas Rangers	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	3	Michael Soroka (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	18.0%	23.2%	-5.3%	99
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	4	Ryan Weathers (L)	theScore Bet	+350	-	17.9%	20.8%	-2.9%	99
Strong HR Chance	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	2	Ryan Weathers (L)	theScore Bet	+700	-	17.9%	11.7%	+6.2%	99
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	2	Jakob Junis (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	17.9%	17.9%	+0.0%	99
Strong HR Chance	Jesus Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+1200	-	17.8%	7.3%	+10.5%	99
HR Chance Watchlist	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Trevor McDonald (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	17.7%	13.3%	+4.5%	98
Strong HR Chance	Jorge Soler	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	4	Joey Cantillo (L)	theScore Bet	+700	-	17.5%	11.7%	+5.8%	97
Strong HR Chance	Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	5	Jakob Junis (R)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	17.4%	8.6%	+8.8%	97
Strong HR Chance	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	3	Kevin Gausman (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	17.4%	14.3%	+3.1%	96
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	1	Jakob Junis (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	17.3%	17.9%	-0.6%	96
Best HR Chance	Trent Grisham	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	1	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	17.3%	17.9%	-0.6%	96

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	100	94.3%	-1662	Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	89.0%	-812	Casey Schmitt, Max Muncy, Jesus Rodriguez, Andy Pages	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	100	86.8%	-656	Kazuma Okamoto, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Jesus Sanchez	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	100	86.0%	-613	Corey Seager, Corbin Carroll, Ildemaro Vargas, Ketel Marte	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	100	85.4%	-585	Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Jorge Soler, Chase DeLauter	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 \| Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	100	85.4%	-585	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Strong HR Chance Mike Trout — Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians (+400) HR chance 18.0% | edge -0.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.275, OPS 0.932, ISO 0.270, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 23.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.614
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 10/40 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0297, xFIP 4.33, K% 22.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.319, xERA 4.03, whiff 25.3%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.961, ISO 0.264 (44 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.375, xwOBA 0.243 (15 PA)

⚠ Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles (+250) HR chance 18.0% | edge -8.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.333, OPS 1.093, ISO 0.372, TB/G 2.28
Statcast: barrel 20.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.4/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.614
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/36 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0345, xFIP 5.17, K% 15.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.343, xERA 4.75, whiff 19.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 1.096, ISO 0.357 (105 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.408, xwOBA 0.371 (30 PA)

Best HR Chance Aaron Judge — New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles (+220) HR chance 18.0% | edge -11.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.390, OPS 1.043, ISO 0.370, TB/G 2.27
Statcast: barrel 26.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.3/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.671
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 15/41 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0345, xFIP 5.17, K% 15.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.343, xERA 4.75, whiff 19.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.088, OPS 1.035, ISO 0.372 (125 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.322, xwOBA 0.238 (24 PA)

Best HR Chance Casey Schmitt — San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+525) HR chance 18.0% | edge +3.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.182, OPS 0.843, ISO 0.227, TB/G 1.91
Statcast: barrel 15.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.8/108.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/33 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0660, xFIP 5.15, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.372, xERA 5.74, whiff 28.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.826, ISO 0.265 (91 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.447, xwOBA 0.262 (14 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Strong HR Chance Kazuma Okamoto — Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (+400) HR chance 18.0% | edge -0.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.256, OPS 0.814, ISO 0.235, TB/G 1.79
Statcast: barrel 16.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.526
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/39 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0385, xFIP 2.97, K% 25.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.285, xERA 3.17, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 0.812, ISO 0.268 (125 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.047, xwOBA 0.166 (10 PA)

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (+325) HR chance 18.0% | edge -4.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.282, OPS 0.836, ISO 0.245, TB/G 1.87
Statcast: barrel 10.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.503
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 10/39 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0252, xFIP 3.48, K% 23.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.293, xERA 3.36, whiff 27.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.847, ISO 0.247 (117 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0500

Best HR Chance Cody Bellinger — New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles (+525) HR chance 18.0% | edge +3.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.125, OPS 0.900, ISO 0.215, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 8.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/109.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.484
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 3/40 (8%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0345, xFIP 5.17, K% 15.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.343, xERA 4.75, whiff 19.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.026, OPS 0.868, ISO 0.182 (117 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.796, xwOBA 0.491 (23 PA)

HR Chance Watchlist Max Muncy — San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+350) HR chance 18.0% | edge -2.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.263, OPS 0.919, ISO 0.274, TB/G 1.84
Statcast: barrel 19.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.616
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/38 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 1.86, K% 33.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.269, xERA 2.81, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 0.899, ISO 0.255 (116 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.575, xwOBA 0.403 (20 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Matt Chapman	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+700	1.2%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	+1600	1.2%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+700	1.4%	Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Cole Young	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+900	1.8%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Cedric Mullins	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+600	2.0%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Ernie Clement	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+1200	2.1%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+900	2.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+700	2.4%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Geraldo Perdomo	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+900	2.9%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Nolan Schanuel	Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	+1200	3.1%	Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Wind 11 mph IN (NNE) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Peter Lambert	George Kirby	1.00	14.6%	42.7%	7.1%	+7.5%
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	Joey Cantillo	Brent Suter	0.95	14.6%	42.7%	15.3%	-0.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Jakob Junis	Michael Soroka	1.10	14.0%	41.6%	8.6%	+5.5%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Kevin Gausman	Drew Rasmussen	0.96	13.2%	40.0%	10.4%	+2.9%
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki	Trevor McDonald	0.97	11.0%	35.2%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Brandon Young	Ryan Weathers	1.00	5.7%	22.0%	5.5%	+0.2%

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 3 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes