| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 256W–255L–5P | 50% | -47.76 u | Last 14 days • 516 settled |
| Grade A | 37W–38L–0P | 49% | -10.52 u | |
| Grade B | 219W–217L–5P | 50% | -37.24 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 450W–432L–7P | 51% | -66.87 u | All-time • 889 settled |
| Grade A | 86W–67L–0P | 56% | -2.22 u | |
| Grade B | 364W–365L–7P | 50% | -64.65 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft | 4.5 | -147 | - | WIN | +0.680 | Braxton Ashcraft: 6.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-09 | K Prop | Chase Burns | 6.5 | -137 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Chase Burns: 2.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-05-09 | K Prop | Kyle Freeland | 4.5 | -135 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Kyle Freeland: 4.0 (line 4.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 588 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 233 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 99 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 24 team(s), 216 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 844 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 13 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Athletics, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians |
| ✓ | Weather: 4 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 9 game(s) fetched | 9 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 0 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ⚠ | No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 8 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 482 | batter bats 178 | batter hand splits 178 | pitcher HR splits 75 | batter pitch-type 435 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ⚠ | HR model: 148 batter(s) scored | 10 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+135) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | +100 | -121 | -1.5 (+154) | +1.5 (-187) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | -141 | +117 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-144) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+159) | +1.5 (-194) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | +102 | -122 | -1.5 (+168) | +1.5 (-205) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | -102 | -118 | -1.5 (+151) | +1.5 (-183) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4:11 PM | -105 | -115 | -1.5 (+145) | +1.5 (-176) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+159) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:21 PM | +104 | -126 | -1.5 (+162) | +1.5 (-198) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Davis Martin Over | MAR@SOX | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | -127 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -125 | best price | 42.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -110 | 50.0% | 70.8% | +20.8% | $+35.17 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | Run Line | Chicago White Sox +1.5 | -144 | 56.4% | 73.5% | +17.1% | $+24.49 | 9 | Bet on DK |
No bets meet the threshold today.
No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | Jacob deGrom / Jameson Taillon | 5.5 / 7.7 | 4.5 / 7.7 | +5.0% | Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 5.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | Gavin Williams / Andrew Morris | 4.8 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | -6.5% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.5% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | Walker Buehler / Kyle Leahy | 4.7 / 7.7 | 5.3 / 7.7 | +0.9% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 0.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | Tyler Mahle / Bubba Chandler | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -4.9% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4:11 PM | Eduardo Rodriguez / Huascar Brazobán | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | -4.6% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.6% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | Davis Martin / Logan Gilbert | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | -11.4% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | Andrew Abbott / Kai-Wei Teng | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -12.5% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.5% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (6 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | Logan Henderson / Carlos Rodón ⚠ Away SP | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -13.8% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -13.8% < 8% required Away SP (Carlos Rodón) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (6 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:21 PM | Noah Cameron / Brenan Hanifee | 3.4 / 7.7 | 6.6 / 7.7 | no odds | Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (2 PA < 30 gate) | No NRFI/YRFI odds available — edge gate skipped |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | Justin Wrobleski / Bryce Elder | 2.9 / 7.7 | 7.1 / 7.7 | -14.5% | Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -14.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | - | Tyler Mahle (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 18.0% | 15.6% | +2.4% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | 1 | Gavin Williams (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 18.0% | 17.9% | +0.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 4 | Logan Gilbert (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 18.0% | 19.7% | -1.7% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | 4 | Andrew Abbott (L) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 18.0% | 22.0% | -4.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | - | Justin Wrobleski (L) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 18.0% | 22.0% | -4.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 2 | Logan Gilbert (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 18.0% | 24.6% | -6.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | 2 | Andrew Abbott (L) | theScore Bet | +240 | - | 18.0% | 27.2% | -9.2% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | 4 | Jacob deGrom (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 18.0% | 17.9% | +0.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Corey Seager | Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | 3 | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 18.0% | 22.0% | -4.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 3 | Logan Gilbert (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 18.0% | 14.3% | +3.7% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | 4 | Kai-Wei Teng (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 18.0% | 20.8% | -2.8% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | - | Tyler Mahle (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 18.0% | 15.6% | +2.4% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | 3 | Kai-Wei Teng (R) | theScore Bet | +325 | - | 18.0% | 22.0% | -4.0% | 99 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | 3 | Logan Henderson (R) | theScore Bet | +210 | - | 18.0% | 30.1% | -12.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | - | Justin Wrobleski (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 18.0% | 15.0% | +3.0% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4:11 PM | 2 | Huascar Brazobán (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 18.0% | 13.3% | +4.7% | 99 |
| HR Chance Watchlist | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | 2 | Logan Henderson (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 18.0% | 23.2% | -5.3% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | 5 | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 18.0% | 13.3% | +4.7% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Josh Jung | Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | 4 | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 17.9% | 11.7% | +6.2% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Pedro Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | - | Walker Buehler (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 17.9% | 11.7% | +6.1% | 99 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | 100 | 93.4% | -1407 | Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz | Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | 100 | 93.0% | -1326 | Ian Happ, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Brandon Nimmo | Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 | Wind 11 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | 100 | 91.2% | -1034 | Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Brice Turang, Trent Grisham | American Family Field HR factor 1.08 | Wind 11 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 100 | 89.8% | -879 | Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Cal Raleigh | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | Wind 13 mph ENE -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | 100 | 86.0% | -616 | Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Joey Bart | Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 14.0% | - |
| Watchlist | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:21 PM | 93 | 85.9% | -607 | - | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | 100 | 85.7% | -600 | Byron Buxton, Chase DeLauter, Ryan Jeffers, Daniel Schneemann | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | 100 | 85.3% | -579 | Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Andy Pages | Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 | - |
| Watchlist | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | 100 | 83.4% | -501 | Xander Bogaerts, Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4:11 PM | 100 | 83.0% | -490 | Corbin Carroll, Ildemaro Vargas, Juan Soto, Mark Vientos | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | +1200 | 0.9% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Steven Kwan | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | +1200 | 1.0% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (6 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | +1400 | 1.0% | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | +700 | 1.3% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Garrett Mitchell | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | +1000 | 1.3% | Low lineup spot (7) | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form |
| Brayan Rocchio | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | +1200 | 1.9% | Low lineup spot (9) | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Mauricio Dubon | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | +800 | 2.1% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Jose Caballero | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | +1100 | 2.3% | Confirmed lineup but player not listed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Geraldo Perdomo | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4:11 PM | +1200 | 2.6% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | +700 | 2.6% | Pitcher has suppressed HRs |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 4:11 PM | Eduardo Rodriguez | Huascar Brazobán | 1.02 | 17.0% | 47.0% | 13.2% | +3.7% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | Walker Buehler | Kyle Leahy | 0.85 | 16.6% | 46.5% | 10.4% | +6.2% | |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:11 PM | Justin Wrobleski | Bryce Elder | 0.97 | 14.7% | 43.0% | 8.2% | +6.5% | |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | Gavin Williams | Andrew Morris | 0.95 | 14.3% | 42.1% | 13.7% | +0.6% | |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:21 PM | Noah Cameron | Brenan Hanifee | 0.93 | 14.1% | 41.8% | — | — | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 4:06 PM | Tyler Mahle | Bubba Chandler | 0.82 | 14.0% | 41.5% | — | — | |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | Davis Martin | Logan Gilbert | 1.00 | 10.2% | 33.5% | 7.1% | +3.1% | |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2:11 PM | Logan Henderson | Carlos Rodón | 1.08 | 8.8% | 30.2% | 6.1% | +2.7% | |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 2:36 PM | Jacob deGrom | Jameson Taillon | 1.10 | 7.0% | 25.6% | 7.5% | -0.5% | |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 1:45 PM | Andrew Abbott | Kai-Wei Teng | 1.15 | 6.6% | 24.6% | 4.4% | +2.2% |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.