| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 247W–249L–5P | 50% | -48.36 u | Last 14 days • 501 settled |
| Grade A | 36W–36L–0P | 50% | -9.20 u | |
| Grade B | 211W–213L–5P | 50% | -39.17 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 441W–425L–7P | 51% | -66.98 u | All-time • 873 settled |
| Grade A | 85W–65L–0P | 57% | -0.90 u | |
| Grade B | 356W–360L–7P | 50% | -66.08 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Griffin Canning | 4.5 | -140 | - | WIN | +0.714 | Griffin Canning: 5.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan | 5.5 | -151 | - | WIN | +0.662 | Emmet Sheehan: 7.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Connor Prielipp | 4.5 | -118 | - | WIN | +0.847 | Connor Prielipp: 6.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Kris Bubic | 5.5 | -122 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Kris Bubic: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Nolan McLean | 5.5 | -125 | - | WIN | +0.800 | Nolan McLean: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Dylan Cease | 7.5 | -138 | - | WIN | +0.725 | Dylan Cease: 10.0 (line 7.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Parker Messick | 5.5 | -131 | - | WIN | +0.763 | Parker Messick: 7.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | K Prop | Chris Sale | 6.5 | -150 | - | WIN | +0.667 | Chris Sale: 7.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | Batter H+R+RBI | Matt Olson | 1.5 | -127 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Matt Olson: 0.0 (line 1.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 586 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 230 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 93 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ⚠ | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 1298 career PA |
| ⚠ | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Washington Nationals |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets |
| ✓ | Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 1 game(s) fetched | 1 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 0 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 2 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 479 | batter bats 178 | batter hand splits 172 | pitcher HR splits 81 | batter pitch-type 431 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 265 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 26 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | +149 | -181 | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+119) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-186) | -1.5 (+153) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | +129 | -156 | +1.5 (-168) | -1.5 (+139) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 4:11 PM | +139 | -168 | +1.5 (-149) | -1.5 (+123) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+129) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | +163 | -199 | +1.5 (-131) | -1.5 (+109) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-193) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 7:06 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+113) | +1.5 (-136) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:11 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:16 PM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+139) | +1.5 (-168) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 9:06 PM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+149) | +1.5 (-181) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:11 PM | +144 | -175 | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+119) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@GIA | 9:06 PM | 4.5 | -147 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 63.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | AST@RED | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | -137 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price | 20.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -105 | 48.9% | 70.2% | +21.2% | $+36.97 | 9 | Bet on DK |
No bets meet the threshold today.
No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 9:06 PM | Landen Roupp / Braxton Ashcraft | 6.9 / 7.7 | 3.1 / 7.7 | +19.7% | Score 6.9 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:11 PM | Kyle Harrison / Cam Schlittler | 6.1 / 7.7 | 3.9 / 7.7 | +11.5% | Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | Michael Wacha / Burch Smith | 6.0 / 7.7 | 4.0 / 7.7 | +19.8% | Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 4:11 PM | Chase Burns / Spencer Arrighetti | 5.7 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +8.1% | Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | Payton Tolle / Nick Martinez | 5.6 / 7.7 | 4.4 / 7.7 | +7.8% | Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (10 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | Trey Yesavage / Jack Kochanowicz | 5.0 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | +2.1% | Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 2.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (10 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:16 PM | Merrill Kelly / Clay Holmes ⚠ Home SP | 4.9 / 7.7 | 5.1 / 7.7 | +6.2% | Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 6.2% < 8% required Home SP (Merrill Kelly) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | Randy Vásquez / Dustin May | 4.9 / 7.7 | 5.1 / 7.7 | +3.5% | Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 3.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:11 PM | Blake Snell / Spencer Strider ⚠ Away SP | 4.7 / 7.7 | 5.3 / 7.7 | -1.0% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -1.0% < 8% required Away SP (Spencer Strider) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 7:06 PM | Jack Leiter / Edward Cabrera | 4.7 / 7.7 | 5.3 / 7.7 | -1.1% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -1.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | Tanner Bibee / Joe Ryan | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -3.8% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | Aaron Nola / Kyle Freeland | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -6.9% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | Shane Baz / Aaron Civale | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -3.5% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.5% < 8% required |
| Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | Janson Junk / Zack Littell | 3.0 / 7.7 | 7.0 / 7.7 | -20.9% | Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -20.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | Anthony Kay / Luis Castillo | 2.5 / 7.7 | 7.5 / 7.7 | -19.0% | Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -19.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | Implied | Model | Edge | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Victor Scott II | Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | - | Randy Vásquez (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 17.6% | +11.2% | 94 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:16 PM | - | Clay Holmes (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 16.5% | +10.1% | 90 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Pedro Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | - | Randy Vásquez (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 18.0% | +8.6% | 93 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Josh Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | - | Trey Yesavage (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 17.6% | +8.2% | 91 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Drew Romo | Unknown | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 17.3% | +7.9% | 90 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Jake McCarthy | Unknown | Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | - | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 13.4% | +7.1% | 80 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:11 PM | - | Cam Schlittler (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 16.1% | +6.6% | 86 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Jeremiah Jackson | Baltimore Orioles | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | - | Aaron Civale (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.8% | +6.4% | 88 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | J.P. Crawford | Unknown | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +1100 | - | 7.9% | 14.2% | +6.3% | 81 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | - | Zack Littell (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 18.0% | +6.3% | 91 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Jorge Mateo | Unknown | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:11 PM | - | Blake Snell (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.7% | +6.2% | 87 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Carlos Cortes | Unknown | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | - | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.5% | +5.8% | 89 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | - | Aaron Nola (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.2% | +5.8% | 86 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Sam Antonacci | Unknown | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Anthony Kay (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.4% | +5.6% | 88 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | - | Dustin May (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.4% | +5.6% | 88 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Carson Kelly | Unknown | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 7:06 PM | - | Jack Leiter (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.1% | +5.6% | 85 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Josh Jung | Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 7:06 PM | - | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.0% | +5.6% | 85 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Alex Freeland | Unknown | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:11 PM | - | Blake Snell (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 15.7% | +5.3% | 84 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Zack Gelof | Unknown | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | - | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 15.6% | +5.2% | 84 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | - | Kyle Freeland (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 15.5% | +5.1% | 83 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | 100 | 90.1% | -907 | Liam Hicks, CJ Abrams, James Wood, Otto Lopez | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | 100 | 87.9% | -724 | Bryce Harper, Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Kyle Schwarber | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 7:06 PM | 100 | 87.5% | -700 | Ian Happ, Corey Seager, Brandon Nimmo, Seiya Suzuki | Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | 100 | 87.2% | -682 | Julio Rodriguez, Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Cal Raleigh | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8% | - |
| Watchlist | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:11 PM | 100 | 85.3% | -581 | Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Jake Bauers, Brice Turang | American Family Field HR factor 1.08 | Wind 12 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | - |
| Watchlist | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:11 PM | 100 | 85.1% | -570 | Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Andy Pages | Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 | - |
| Watchlist | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | 100 | 84.7% | -553 | Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Bo Naylor, Kody Clemens | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | 100 | 84.5% | -544 | Gunnar Henderson, Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Pete Alonso | Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 | - |
| Watchlist | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 4:11 PM | 100 | 84.2% | -531 | Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker | Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | - |
| Watchlist | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:16 PM | 100 | 84.0% | -525 | Ildemaro Vargas, Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, Mark Vientos | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | 100 | 83.1% | -492 | Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | 100 | 82.9% | -484 | Kazuma Okamoto, Josh Lowe, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler | Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 | - |
| Watchlist | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | 100 | 80.8% | -420 | Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 9:06 PM | 82 | 79.2% | -382 | Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds | Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.8%, P(U1.5) 53.4% |
| Pass | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | 85 | 77.9% | -353 | Wilyer Abreu, Junior Caminero, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Aranda | Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 | Cold (42F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.1%, P(U1.5) 55.5% |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | Edge | Why avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | +500 | -14.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate |
| Salvador Perez | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | +400 | -13.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Jo Adell | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | +475 | -13.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Andrew Benintendi | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | +525 | -12.1% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 4:11 PM | +525 | -11.5% | Lineup not confirmed | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal |
| Kyle Stowers | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | +475 | -11.2% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable |
| Garrett Mitchell | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:11 PM | +700 | -10.8% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Jackson Merrill | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | +500 | -10.3% | Lineup not confirmed |
| Rafael Devers | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 9:06 PM | +600 | -10.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (5 PA) |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:16 PM | +700 | -10.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 4:11 PM | Payton Tolle | Nick Martinez | 0.95 | 22.1% PLAY | 55.5% PLAY | — | — |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 9:06 PM | Landen Roupp | Braxton Ashcraft | 0.82 | 20.8% PLAY | 53.4% PLAY | — | — |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | Michael Wacha | Burch Smith | 0.93 | 19.2% | 50.9% | — | — |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 3:08 PM | Trey Yesavage | Jack Kochanowicz | 0.96 | 17.1% | 47.3% | — | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 7:16 PM | Randy Vásquez | Dustin May | 0.85 | 16.9% | 46.9% | — | — |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:16 PM | Merrill Kelly | Clay Holmes | 1.02 | 16.0% | 45.3% | — | — |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 4:11 PM | Chase Burns | Spencer Arrighetti | 1.15 | 15.8% | 45.0% | — | — |
| Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 4:06 PM | Shane Baz | Aaron Civale | 1.00 | 15.5% | 44.4% | — | — |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 6:11 PM | Tanner Bibee | Joe Ryan | 0.95 | 15.3% | 44.0% | — | — |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:11 PM | Blake Snell | Spencer Strider | 0.97 | 14.9% | 43.3% | — | — |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:11 PM | Kyle Harrison | Cam Schlittler | 1.08 | 14.7% | 42.9% | — | — |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:11 PM | Anthony Kay | Luis Castillo | 1.00 | 12.8% | 39.1% | — | — |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 7:06 PM | Jack Leiter | Edward Cabrera | 1.10 | 12.5% | 38.5% | — | — |
| Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:06 PM | Aaron Nola | Kyle Freeland | 1.10 | 12.1% | 37.7% | — | — |
| Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 4:11 PM | Janson Junk | Zack Littell | 0.88 | 9.9% | 32.9% | — | — |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.