| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 243W–244L–5P | 50% | -45.22 u | Last 14 days • 492 settled |
| Grade A | 32W–35L–0P | 48% | -11.18 u | |
| Grade B | 211W–209L–5P | 50% | -34.04 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 423W–409L–7P | 51% | -64.72 u | All-time • 839 settled |
| Grade A | 78W–63L–0P | 55% | -4.08 u | |
| Grade B | 345W–346L–7P | 50% | -60.64 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | K Prop | Cade Povich | 4.5 | -150 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Cade Povich: 1.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-07 | K Prop | Jake Irvin | 4.5 | -128 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Jake Irvin: 2.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-07 | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore | 4.5 | -166 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Matthew Liberatore: 6.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-07 | K Prop | Max Meyer | 5.5 | -118 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Max Meyer: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 578 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 227 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 90 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ⚠ | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 29 SP matchup(s), 862 career PA |
| ⚠ | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds |
| ✓ | Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 14 game(s) fetched | 14 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 3 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 2 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 479 | batter bats 177 | batter hand splits 177 | pitcher HR splits 81 | batter pitch-type 431 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 262 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 15 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | +179 | -219 | +1.5 (-126) | -1.5 (+104) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+135) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 7:11 PM | +104 | -126 | -1.5 (+160) | +1.5 (-195) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:16 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-186) | -1.5 (+153) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+123) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | -136 | +113 | -1.5 (+123) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 7.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | -143 | +119 | -1.5 (+123) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | -136 | +113 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | +129 | -156 | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (+141) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+157) | +1.5 (-191) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | -102 | -118 | -1.5 (+157) | +1.5 (-191) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | K Prop | Griffin Canning Over | CAR@PAD | 9:46 PM | 4.5 | -140 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 177.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | BRA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | -151 | DK Over 5.5 -151 | exact | 34.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Over | TWI@GUA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | -118 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 31.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Kris Bubic Over | TIG@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | -122 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +165 | best price | 31.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | MET@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | -125 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 28.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | ANG@JAY | 7:08 PM | 7.5 | -138 | theScore Bet Over 7.5 -135 | best price | 26.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | TWI@GUA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | -131 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 25.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Chris Sale Over | BRA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | -150 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price | 21.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -120 | 52.2% | 70.3% | +18.2% | $+28.97 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Run Line | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | -149 | 57.2% | 72.4% | +15.2% | $+20.91 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | 6:41 PM | F5 ML | Colorado Rockies | +170 | 35.0% | 46.3% | +11.3% | $+25.07 | 5 | Bet on DK |
| C | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | 7:41 PM | F5 ML | Milwaukee Brewers | +105 | 45.9% | 54.9% | +9.0% | $+12.52 | 5 | Bet on DK |
| C | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | 6:11 PM | F5 ML | Houston Astros | +120 | 42.8% | 51.0% | +8.2% | $+12.22 | 5 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | Dylan Cease / Reid Detmers | 6.9 / 7.7 | 3.1 / 7.7 | +18.9% | Score 6.9 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Sean Burke / Emerson Hancock | 6.2 / 7.7 | 3.8 / 7.7 | +14.9% | Score 6.2 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Jacob Misiorowski / Max Fried | 6.2 / 7.7 | 3.8 / 7.7 | +10.0% | Score 6.2 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:16 PM | Parker Messick / Connor Prielipp | 5.9 / 7.7 | 4.1 / 7.7 | +8.9% | Score 5.9 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (11 PA < 30 gate) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | Emmet Sheehan / Chris Sale | 5.8 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +12.1% | Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Jesús Luzardo / Chase Dollander | 5.8 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +4.9% | Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 4.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Ryne Nelson / Nolan McLean | 5.7 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +10.6% | Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | TBD / Carmen Mlodzinski ⚠ Home SP | 5.5 / 7.7 | 4.5 / 7.7 | +3.6% | Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 3.6% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | Nick Lodolo / Mike Burrows ⚠ Home SP | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -3.5% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -3.5% < 8% required Home SP (Nick Lodolo) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | Connelly Early / Jesse Scholtens | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -2.6% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.6% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (5 PA < 30 gate) |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Kris Bubic / Keider Montero | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | -8.2% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -8.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | Kumar Rocker / Ben Brown | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -8.2% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -8.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 7:11 PM | Robby Snelling / Foster Griffin ⚠ Home SP | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -12.9% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -12.9% < 8% required Home SP (Robby Snelling) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | Griffin Canning / Michael McGreevy | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -12.2% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (5 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | Kyle Bradish / Jacob Lopez | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -8.0% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -8.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | Implied | Model | Edge | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Candidate | Victor Scott II | Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | - | Griffin Canning (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 18.0% | +11.6% | 95 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Josh Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | - | Dylan Cease (R) | theScore Bet | +1200 | - | 7.3% | 17.9% | +10.6% | 94 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 7:11 PM | - | Foster Griffin (L) | theScore Bet | +1000 | - | 8.6% | 18.0% | +9.4% | 94 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Connelly Early (L) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 18.0% | +8.5% | 93 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Alek Thomas | Unknown | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Ryne Nelson (R) | theScore Bet | +1200 | - | 7.3% | 15.8% | +8.5% | 87 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Gabriel Moreno | Unknown | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Ryne Nelson (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 17.3% | +7.9% | 90 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Nolan McLean (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 14.0% | +7.6% | 82 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Pedro Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | - | Griffin Canning (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 18.0% | +7.5% | 92 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | - | Michael McGreevy (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 17.9% | +7.5% | 92 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Connelly Early (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 18.0% | +6.2% | 90 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Carson Kelly | Unknown | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | - | Kumar Rocker (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.6% | +6.2% | 87 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | - | Chris Sale (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.7% | +5.9% | 90 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Darell Hernaiz | Unknown | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | - | Kyle Bradish (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 12.2% | +5.9% | 76 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Carlos Narvaez | Unknown | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Connelly Early (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.0% | +5.5% | 85 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Ben Williamson | Unknown | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Connelly Early (L) | theScore Bet | +1200 | - | 7.3% | 12.5% | +5.2% | 76 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Unknown | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Ryne Nelson (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 14.6% | +5.1% | 81 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 7:11 PM | - | Foster Griffin (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 16.8% | +5.1% | 86 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Adrian Del Castillo | Unknown | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | - | Ryne Nelson (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 15.3% | +4.8% | 83 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:16 PM | - | Connor Prielipp (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 16.6% | +4.8% | 86 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Zach Cole | Unknown | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | - | Nick Lodolo (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 16.5% | +4.7% | 85 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | 100 | 88.3% | -759 | Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Walker | Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | 100 | 87.8% | -720 | Gunnar Henderson, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom | Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | 100 | 86.8% | -660 | Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies | Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 100 | 86.2% | -627 | Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Gabriel Moreno, MJ Melendez | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.7% | - |
| Watchlist | Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 100 | 85.5% | -591 | Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Hunter Goodman, Brandon Marsh | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | - |
| Watchlist | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:16 PM | 98 | 84.9% | -560 | Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | 100 | 84.6% | -551 | Junior Caminero, Willson Contreras, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda | Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 | - |
| Watchlist | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 7:11 PM | 100 | 84.6% | -549 | Liam Hicks, James Wood, Otto Lopez, CJ Abrams | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | - |
| Watchlist | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | 100 | 84.4% | -541 | Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Pedro Pages, Xander Bogaerts | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | 100 | 83.2% | -494 | Ian Happ, Corey Seager, Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly | Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 | - |
| Watchlist | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | 100 | 82.5% | -472 | Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Cal Raleigh, Miguel Vargas | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | Cold (44F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | - |
| Watchlist | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | 100 | 82.5% | -471 | Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jahmai Jones | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | 98 | 80.6% | -415 | Josh Lowe, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Kazuma Okamoto | Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 | - |
| Watchlist | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | 81 | 79.7% | -393 | Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Joey Bart, Billy Cook | Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 | Wind 11 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.3%, P(U1.5) 52.7% |
| Watchlist | New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | 87 | 78.6% | -366 | Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham | American Family Field HR factor 1.08 | Cold (37F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 21.4%, P(U1.5) 54.5% |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | Edge | Why avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | +425 | -13.5% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher season stats unavailable |
| Taylor Ward | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | +525 | -13.1% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | +400 | -12.9% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Batter Statcast power unavailable | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Rafael Devers | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | +550 | -11.8% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (5 PA) |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | +600 | -10.8% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Cold weather 44F |
| Weston Wilson | Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | +500 | -10.6% | Lineup not confirmed |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | +525 | -10.6% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher season stats unavailable |
| George Springer | Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | +450 | -10.6% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | +525 | -10.5% | Lineup not confirmed |
| Salvador Perez | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +450 | -10.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7:41 PM | Jacob Misiorowski | Max Fried | 1.08 | 21.4% PLAY | 54.5% PLAY | — | — |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants | 10:16 PM | None | Carmen Mlodzinski | 0.82 | 20.3% PLAY | 52.7% PLAY | — | — |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7:08 PM | Dylan Cease | Reid Detmers | 0.96 | 19.4% | 51.3% | — | — |
| Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | Kris Bubic | Keider Montero | 0.93 | 17.5% | 48.1% | — | — |
| Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | Sean Burke | Emerson Hancock | 1.00 | 17.5% | 48.0% | — | — |
| Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers | 8:06 PM | Kumar Rocker | Ben Brown | 1.10 | 16.8% | 46.8% | — | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 9:46 PM | Griffin Canning | Michael McGreevy | 0.85 | 15.6% | 44.6% | — | — |
| Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 7:11 PM | Robby Snelling | Foster Griffin | 0.88 | 15.4% | 44.2% | — | — |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | Connelly Early | Jesse Scholtens | 0.95 | 15.4% | 44.2% | — | — |
| Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 7:16 PM | Parker Messick | Connor Prielipp | 0.95 | 15.1% | 43.7% | — | — |
| Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Jesús Luzardo | Chase Dollander | 1.10 | 14.5% | 42.5% | — | — |
| New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Ryne Nelson | Nolan McLean | 1.02 | 13.7% | 41.0% | — | — |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:11 PM | Emmet Sheehan | Chris Sale | 0.97 | 13.2% | 39.8% | — | — |
| Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles | 7:06 PM | Kyle Bradish | Jacob Lopez | 1.00 | 12.2% | 37.8% | — | — |
| Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds | 6:11 PM | Nick Lodolo | Mike Burrows | 1.15 | 11.6% | 36.7% | — | — |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.