| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 241W–242L–5P | 50% | -43.97 u | Last 14 days • 488 settled |
| Grade A | 32W–32L–0P | 50% | -8.18 u | |
| Grade B | 209W–210L–5P | 50% | -35.80 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 415W–397L–7P | 51% | -59.19 u | All-time • 819 settled |
| Grade A | 78W–59L–0P | 57% | -0.08 u | |
| Grade B | 337W–338L–7P | 50% | -59.11 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | K Prop | Colin Rea | 4.5 | -133 | - | WIN | +0.752 | Colin Rea: 5.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-06 | K Prop | Joey Cantillo | 4.5 | -119 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Joey Cantillo: 1.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-06 | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs | 4.5 | -140 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Jeffrey Springs: 4.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-06 | K Prop | Paul Skenes | 5.5 | -157 | - | WIN | +0.637 | Paul Skenes: 7.0 (line 5.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 568 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 225 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 81 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 20 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ⚠ | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 260 hitter(s) | 20 SP matchup(s), 785 career PA |
| ⚠ | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | Rest data: 20 team(s) | Back-to-back: Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, New York Mets, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 20 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs |
| ✓ | Weather: 4 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 8 game(s) fetched | 8 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ⚠ | No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 472 | batter bats 178 | batter hand splits 178 | pitcher HR splits 80 | batter pitch-type 430 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ⚠ | HR model: 170 batter(s) scored | 10 game environment(s) scored | 18 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 12:36 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+135) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 1:06 PM | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+153) | +1.5 (-186) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 2:11 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-168) | -1.5 (+139) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | +169 | -207 | +1.5 (-122) | -1.5 (+102) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | -149 | +123 | -1.5 (+104) | +1.5 (-126) | O/U 11.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-175) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | +104 | -126 | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-193) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+159) | +1.5 (-194) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | +144 | -175 | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+119) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | K Prop | Cade Povich Over | ORI@MAR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | -150 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 37.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Jake Irvin Over | TWI@NAT | 1:06 PM | 4.5 | -128 | BetRivers Over 4.5 +170 | best price | 26.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@PAD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | -166 | DK Under 4.5 -166 | exact | 26.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
No bets meet the threshold today.
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (F5) | 10:11 PM | F5 ML | St. Louis Cardinals | +145 | 38.5% | 47.5% | +9.1% | $+16.50 | 4 | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Andrew Painter / J.T. Ginn | 4.8 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | +1.8% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Max Meyer / Cade Povich | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -4.0% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | Jake Bennett / Griffin Jax | 4.1 / 7.7 | 5.9 / 7.7 | -6.6% | Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (5 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (7 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 12:36 PM | Paul Blackburn / MacKenzie Gore | 3.8 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -9.4% | Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -9.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | Michael King / Matthew Liberatore | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -13.5% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -13.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | Shota Imanaga / Rhett Lowder | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -13.0% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -13.0% < 8% required |
| New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | Jose Quintana / Christian Scott | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -6.0% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | Zac Gallen / Mitch Keller | 3.3 / 7.7 | 6.7 / 7.7 | -14.2% | Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -14.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 2:11 PM | Seth Lugo / Slade Cecconi | 3.2 / 7.7 | 6.8 / 7.7 | -12.9% | Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) |
| Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 1:06 PM | Jake Irvin / Simeon Woods Richardson | 3.0 / 7.7 | 7.0 / 7.7 | -20.2% | Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -20.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | Implied | Model | Edge | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Victor Scott II | Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | - | Michael King (R) | theScore Bet | +1200 | - | 7.3% | 17.8% | +10.5% | 94 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | - | Cade Povich (L) | theScore Bet | +1000 | - | 8.6% | 18.0% | +9.4% | 93 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jake Bennett (L) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 17.9% | +8.5% | 92 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | - | Zac Gallen (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 17.7% | +8.3% | 92 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | - | Mitch Keller (R) | theScore Bet | +1000 | - | 8.6% | 16.9% | +8.3% | 90 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Pedro Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | - | Michael King (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 17.0% | +7.6% | 89 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Edouard Julien | Unknown | New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Jose Quintana (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 17.5% | +7.1% | 90 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Christian Scott (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.9% | +6.2% | 90 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Brady House | Washington Nationals | Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 1:06 PM | - | Simeon Woods Richardson (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.8% | +6.1% | 90 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | - | J.T. Ginn (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.7% | +5.9% | 90 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Gabriel Moreno | Unknown | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | - | Zac Gallen (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.3% | +5.8% | 86 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Carlos Narvaez | Unknown | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jake Bennett (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 16.2% | +5.8% | 86 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 2:11 PM | - | Seth Lugo (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 17.3% | +5.6% | 88 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Marcelo Mayer | Unknown | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jake Bennett (L) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 14.4% | +5.0% | 81 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Ben Williamson | Unknown | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jake Bennett (L) | theScore Bet | +1100 | - | 7.9% | 12.6% | +4.7% | 76 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | - | Cade Povich (L) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 17.8% | +4.5% | 88 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | - | Matthew Liberatore (L) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 17.4% | +4.2% | 87 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Dansby Swanson | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | - | Rhett Lowder (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 15.7% | +4.0% | 83 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Willi Castro | Unknown | New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Jose Quintana (L) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 14.3% | +3.9% | 79 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | - | Jake Bennett (L) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 14.3% | 18.0% | +3.7% | 88 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 1:06 PM | 100 | 87.9% | -729 | CJ Abrams, James Wood, Byron Buxton, Brady House | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | 100 | 86.0% | -616 | Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield, Juan Soto | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | Cold (34F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 14.0% | - |
| Watchlist | Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 100 | 85.8% | -605 | Bryce Harper, Shea Langeliers, Kyle Schwarber, Tyler Soderstrom | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | - |
| Watchlist | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | 100 | 85.8% | -602 | Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz | Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 | Precip chance 52% -- delay/postponement risk | - |
| Watchlist | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | 100 | 85.7% | -600 | Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, JJ Wetherholt, Xander Bogaerts | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | 100 | 84.4% | -539 | Liam Hicks, Otto Lopez, Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | - |
| Watchlist | Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 12:36 PM | 100 | 83.8% | -517 | Aaron Judge, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Jake Burger | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | - |
| Watchlist | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 2:11 PM | 100 | 83.5% | -507 | Carter Jensen, Chase DeLauter, Angel Martinez, Jac Caglianone | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Cold (43F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | - |
| Watchlist | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | 100 | 80.6% | -416 | Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Ildemaro Vargas | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | 88 | 78.8% | -372 | Ian Happ, Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | Cold (36F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 21.2%, P(U1.5) 54.0% |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | Edge | Why avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | +550 | -12.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold weather 34F |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | +600 | -12.4% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs |
| Roman Anthony | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | +550 | -12.3% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | High-whiff arsenal | Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) |
| Michael Busch | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | +525 | -11.1% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Cold weather 36F |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | +600 | -10.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Thin batter split sample vs_lhp (15 PA) | Cold weather 34F |
| Alex Bregman | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | +550 | -10.9% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Cold weather 36F |
| Matt McLain | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | +600 | -10.7% | Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold weather 36F |
| Christopher Morel | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | +475 | -10.3% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Pitcher has suppressed HRs |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 1:06 PM | +500 | -10.0% | Lineup not confirmed | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Trevor Story | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | +700 | -8.6% | Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | High-whiff arsenal | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | Shota Imanaga | Rhett Lowder | 1.05 | 21.2% PLAY | 54.0% PLAY | — | — |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:41 PM | Zac Gallen | Mitch Keller | 1.02 | 19.4% | 51.2% | — | — |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 2:11 PM | Seth Lugo | Slade Cecconi | 0.93 | 16.5% | 46.2% | — | — |
| Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 12:36 PM | Paul Blackburn | MacKenzie Gore | 1.18 | 16.2% | 45.7% | — | — |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Max Meyer | Cade Povich | 0.88 | 15.6% | 44.7% | — | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | 10:11 PM | Michael King | Matthew Liberatore | 0.85 | 14.3% | 42.1% | — | — |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 7:11 PM | Jake Bennett | Griffin Jax | 0.95 | 14.2% | 42.0% | — | — |
| Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Andrew Painter | J.T. Ginn | 1.10 | 14.2% | 41.9% | — | — |
| New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | Jose Quintana | Christian Scott | 1.20 | 14.0% | 41.5% | — | — |
| Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 1:06 PM | Jake Irvin | Simeon Woods Richardson | 1.02 | 12.1% | 37.6% | — | — |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.