MLB Bets 2026-05-06

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	246W–227L–5P	52%	-24.94 u	Last 14 days • 478 settled
Grade A	31W–32L–0P	49%	-8.79 u
Grade B	215W–195L–5P	52%	-16.15 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	406W–371L–7P	52%	-40.49 u	All-time • 784 settled
Grade A	76W–57L–0P	57%	+0.53 u
Grade B	330W–314L–7P	51%	-41.02 u

35 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-05	K Prop	Peter Lambert	4.5	-114	-	LOSS	-1.000	Peter Lambert: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	4.5	-163	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cade Cavalli: 2.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen	4.5	-122	-	WIN	+0.820	Drew Rasmussen: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Bryce Elder	4.5	-139	-	WIN	+0.719	Bryce Elder: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Jameson Taillon	4.5	-155	-	WIN	+0.645	Jameson Taillon: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Shohei Ohtani	6.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Shohei Ohtani: 8.0 (line 6.5)
2026-05-05	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-130	-	LOSS	-1.000	Ben Rice: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-05-05	Batter H+R+RBI	Aaron Judge	1.5	-126	-	WIN	+0.794	Aaron Judge: 2.0 (line 1.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 568 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 225 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 81 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 28 team(s), 252 player(s)
✓	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1302 career PA
✓	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers
✓	Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 9 game(s) fetched \| 9 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 9 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 9 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 472 \| batter bats 178 \| batter hand splits 178 \| pitcher HR splits 77 \| batter pitch-type 430 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	HR model: 158 batter(s) scored \| 9 game environment(s) scored \| 16 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-126	+105	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+149	-181	+1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+140	-169	+1.5 (-154)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+117	-141	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+155)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+102)	+1.5 (-122)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

4 Grade A  |  15 Grade B  |  615 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 4 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	K Prop	Colin Rea Over	RED@CUB	7:41 PM	4.5	-146	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	44.3%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Jeffrey Springs Over	ATH@PHI	6:41 PM	4.5	-139	BetRivers Over 3.5 -124 \| alt rescue	30.4%	✓✓✓✓–✓	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Paul Skenes Over	PIR@DIA	9:41 PM	5.5	-157	DK Over 5.5 -157 \| exact	23.3%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	ATH@PHI	6:41 PM	6.5	-120	BetRivers Over 4.5 -122 \| alt rescue	22.3%	✓✓✓✓–✓	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

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V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Colin Rea Over 4.5 (-146) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 44.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.99K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.14)
Colin Rea: K/9 8.2, proj 6.5K over 6.7 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 12% usage)
Umpire: Tom Hanahan — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 108 PA | K% 23.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .287 | OPS .879
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 108 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.29 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 3/7 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 (-139) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -124 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 30.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.37K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 8.4, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 19% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barrett — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jeffrey Springs: 41 PA | K% 39.0% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .125 | OPS .471
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 5.5 (-157) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -157 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.28K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Paul Skenes: K/9 9.7, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 23.5% | xwOBA 0.240 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 19% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .208 | OPS .609
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 51 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.57 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (-120) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -122 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.45K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.43)
Zack Wheeler: K/9 9.8, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 32.6% | put-away% 25.6% | xwOBA 0.250 | top pitch: Sweeper (57% whiff, 14% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barrett — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 62 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .510
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 62 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 6.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (15 play(s))

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (-145) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 9:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -141 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 21.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.16K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 3/7 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.43)
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.3, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)
Umpire: James Hoye — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 56 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .304 | OPS 1.016
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 56 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Will Warren Over 5.5 (-159) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.92K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.14)
Will Warren: K/9 10.7, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Sweeper (24% whiff, 24% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.57 | Season Avg 6.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-159) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 (+128) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 15.581999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.3 (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 5.5 IP/2 start(s), xFIP 4.03)
DK books agree: NO (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 62 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .510
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/2 under 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-119) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.65
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 19/34 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-138) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/33 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-149) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 21/35 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-124) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.369 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 22/35 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-136) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 17 PA | 3/17 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .412
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 22/35 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-114) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Checks: ✓!!–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/30 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-129) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/35 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-119) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Opp SP xwOBA 0.369 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/31 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-128) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/36 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-125) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 21/35 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-139) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/33 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Run Line — Athletics +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Athletics 1.5 -142 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)

[INJ] Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Naoel Mejia (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Kyle Backhus (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+13.94/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.2% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 11.0% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Zack Wheeler small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)
Jeffrey Springs small sample (38 IP) — stats 47% actual / 53% league avg (regression applied)
Philadelphia Phillies small sample — offense 44% actual / 56% league avg (regression applied)
Athletics small sample — offense 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-102	48.3%	65.7%	+17.4%	$+30.03	9	Bet on DK
C	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	Total	Over 8.0	-112	50.4%	65.9%	+15.5%	$+24.82	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (Total) +17.4%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Stephen Kolek (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Isaiah Jackson (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5 [April dampening ×0.99]
Home SP: Cole Ragans (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Cole Ragans small sample (32 IP) — stats 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Joey Cantillo small sample (34 IP) — stats 42% actual / 58% league avg (regression applied)
Kansas City Royals small sample — offense 44% actual / 56% league avg (regression applied)
Cleveland Guardians small sample — offense 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 8.0 — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +15.5%

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 8.0 [April dampening ×0.99]
Home SP: Colin Rea (RHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Brady Singer (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Colin Rea small sample (32 IP) — stats 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Brady Singer small sample (32 IP) — stats 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Chicago Cubs small sample — offense 44% actual / 56% league avg (regression applied)
Cincinnati Reds small sample — offense 44% actual / 56% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	+140	39.3%	48.3%	+8.9%	$+15.84	8	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Arizona Diamondbacks	+130	41.1%	49.9%	+8.8%	$+14.75	8	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Athletics — Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +8.9%

[INJ] Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Naoel Mejia (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Kyle Backhus (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Zack Wheeler xFIP 4.03
Jeffrey Springs xFIP 4.25
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Away SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)

C Arizona Diamondbacks — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 ML) +8.8%

[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luke Craig (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Michael Soroka xFIP 3.87
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.72
Home SP: Michael Soroka (RHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why not play? (9 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Michael Soroka / Paul Skenes	5.3 / 7.7	4.7 / 7.7	+4.5%	Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 4.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate)
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	Michael Lorenzen / Freddy Peralta	4.9 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	+5.2%	Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate)
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Will Warren / Nathan Eovaldi	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	+2.6%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Zack Wheeler / Jeffrey Springs	4.5 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	-4.9%	Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (9 PA < 30 gate)
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Cole Ragans / Joey Cantillo	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-14.7%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Jack Flaherty / Sonny Gray	3.1 / 7.7	6.9 / 7.7	-16.6%	Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -16.6% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate)
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Eury Pérez / Brandon Young	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-20.4%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (16 PA < 30 gate)
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	Colin Rea / Brady Singer	2.7 / 7.7	7.3 / 7.7	-24.9%	Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -24.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate)
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Miles Mikolas / Bailey Ober	2.5 / 7.7	7.5 / 7.7	-17.2%	Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -17.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate)

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR probability + pitcher vulnerability + park/weather + best-book price; No-HR inverse is support/conflict only

HR props parsed: 158 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=158
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed

Batter HR Candidates

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	Implied	Model	Edge	Score
Strong HR Candidate	Jace Jung	Texas Rangers	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Jack Flaherty (R)	theScore Bet	+1200	-	7.3%	17.9%	+10.6%	94
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona Diamondbacks	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	5	Paul Skenes (R)	theScore Bet	+1100	-	7.9%	17.2%	+9.3%	91
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Elias Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	8.6%	17.8%	+9.2%	93
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Tyler Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+1100	-	7.9%	15.9%	+8.0%	87
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Daniel Schneemann	Unknown	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	8.6%	16.2%	+7.6%	87
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Dansby Swanson	Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	9	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	18.0%	+7.5%	92
Strong HR Candidate	Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	2	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	17.8%	+7.4%	91
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Starling Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+900	-	9.4%	16.6%	+7.2%	88
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Angel Martinez	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	17.6%	+7.1%	90
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Edouard Julien	Unknown	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	17.5%	+7.1%	90
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	1	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+1200	-	7.3%	14.0%	+6.7%	81
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jeremiah Jackson	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	9	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	16.9%	+6.5%	88
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Liam Hicks	Miami Marlins	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	2	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	18.0%	+6.3%	91
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Carson Kelly	Unknown	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	-	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+1100	-	7.9%	13.9%	+6.0%	80
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Brooks Lee	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	2	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	17.6%	+5.9%	89
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Ryan O'Hearn	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Michael Soroka (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	17.5%	+5.8%	89
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Carlos Narvaez	Unknown	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Jack Flaherty (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	16.0%	+5.5%	85
Strong HR Candidate	Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	7	Jeffrey Springs (L)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	17.2%	+5.5%	88
Strong HR Candidate	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	3	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	18.0%	+4.7%	89
Strong HR Candidate	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	5	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	18.0%	+4.7%	89

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	94.4%	-1682	CJ Abrams, Byron Buxton, James Wood, Brooks Lee	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| Wind 13 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	93.5%	-1440	Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Corey Seager	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	100	91.8%	-1113	Elly De La Cruz, Ian Happ, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	88.9%	-804	Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Elias Diaz, Angel Martinez	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	100	88.2%	-746	Liam Hicks, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Jeremiah Jackson	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	88.0%	-731	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Kurtz	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| Wind 12 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	86.8%	-657	Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Ildemaro Vargas	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	85.1%	-572	Dillon Dingler, Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Spencer Torkelson	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| Wind 10 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	100	81.8%	-451	Hunter Goodman, Juan Soto, Mickey Moniak, Mark Vientos	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| Cold (36F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry	-

▼ HR Candidate Detail (8 players)

Strong HR Candidate Jace Jung — Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers (+1200) edge +10.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.125, OPS 0.927, ISO 0.202, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 5.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/107.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.476
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0401, xFIP 5.90, K% 22.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.34, whiff 24.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.030, OPS 0.996, ISO 0.208 (99 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 1.009, xwOBA 0.638 (9 PA)
Park HR factor 0.91
Market espnbet +1200: implied 7.3%

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

⚠ Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA)

Parlay Sprinkle Only Ildemaro Vargas — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+1100) edge +9.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 1.041, ISO 0.271, TB/G 2.56
Statcast: barrel 5.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 87.7/109.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.498
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0274, xFIP 3.07, K% 29.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.240, xERA 2.25, whiff 24.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.027, OPS 0.991, ISO 0.220 (73 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.447, xwOBA 0.340 (21 PA)
Park HR factor 1.02
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.86x

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Parlay Sprinkle Only Elias Diaz — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+1000) edge +9.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.147, OPS 0.874, ISO 0.155, TB/G 1.79
Statcast: barrel 5.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.449
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 0.927, ISO 0.242 (32 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.378, xwOBA 0.375 (10 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Market espnbet +1000: implied 8.6%

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

Parlay Sprinkle Only Tyler Freeman — New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies (+1100) edge +8.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.086, OPS 0.773, ISO 0.150, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 12.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.545
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0410, xFIP 4.34, K% 14.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.55, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.018, OPS 0.796, ISO 0.157 (110 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.614, xwOBA 0.440 (18 PA)
Park HR factor 1.20
Market espnbet +1100: implied 7.9%

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

⚠ Cold weather 36F

Parlay Sprinkle Only Daniel Schneemann — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+1000) edge +7.6%

Statcast: barrel 9.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/107.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.451
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Park HR factor 0.93
Market espnbet +1000: implied 8.6%

⚠ Batter team unresolved

⚠ Batter power stats unavailable

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

Elite HR Longshot Edge Dansby Swanson — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (+800) edge +7.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.171, OPS 0.717, ISO 0.188, TB/G 1.31
Statcast: barrel 11.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.437
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0507, xFIP 4.78, K% 13.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.382, xERA 6.15, whiff 20.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.032, OPS 0.647, ISO 0.142 (95 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.631, xwOBA 0.427 (14 PA)
Park HR factor 1.05
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.97x

⚠ Low lineup spot (9)

Strong HR Candidate Chase DeLauter — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+800) edge +7.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.182, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.241, TB/G 1.91
Statcast: barrel 7.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.9/111.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.475
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.000, OPS 1.077, ISO 0.206 (37 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.321, xwOBA 0.286 (19 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.90x

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

Parlay Sprinkle Only Starling Marte — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+900) edge +7.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.151, OPS 0.651, ISO 0.153, TB/G 1.48
Statcast: barrel 9.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.000, OPS 0.650, ISO 0.051 (41 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.390, xwOBA 0.317 (31 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Market espnbet +900: implied 9.4%

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

Avoid / Trap List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	Edge	Why avoid
Taylor Ward	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+550	-12.9%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable
Kyle Stowers	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+425	-11.1%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher season stats unavailable
Alec Bohm	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+700	-10.0%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Brett Baty	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	+700	-9.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold weather 36F
Marcell Ozuna	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+550	-9.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Trevor Story	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+600	-9.6%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Edmundo Sosa	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+500	-9.2%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Jakob Marsee	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+800	-9.0%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Ceddanne Rafaela	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+700	-9.0%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Lawrence Butler	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+700	-9.0%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% to play

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	Michael Lorenzen	Freddy Peralta	1.20	18.1%	49.1%	12.3%	+5.9%
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Jack Flaherty	Sonny Gray	0.91	14.9%	43.2%	9.2%	+5.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Michael Soroka	Paul Skenes	1.02	13.2%	40.0%	14.0%	-0.8%
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Zack Wheeler	Jeffrey Springs	1.10	12.0%	37.5%	6.2%	+5.9%
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Eury Pérez	Brandon Young	0.88	11.8%	37.1%	7.7%	+4.1%
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Cole Ragans	Joey Cantillo	0.93	11.1%	35.4%	14.1%	-3.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	Colin Rea	Brady Singer	1.05	8.2%	28.8%	10.3%	-2.0%
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Will Warren	Nathan Eovaldi	1.18	6.5%	24.2%	5.0%	+1.5%
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Miles Mikolas	Bailey Ober	1.02	5.6%	21.8%	5.2%	+0.4%

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 4 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR Candidates

Game HR Environments

Avoid / Trap List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes