MLB Bets 2026-05-06

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	246W–227L–5P	52%	-24.94 u	Last 14 days • 478 settled
Grade A	31W–32L–0P	49%	-8.79 u
Grade B	215W–195L–5P	52%	-16.15 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	406W–371L–7P	52%	-40.49 u	All-time • 784 settled
Grade A	76W–57L–0P	57%	+0.53 u
Grade B	330W–314L–7P	51%	-41.02 u

26 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-05	K Prop	Peter Lambert	4.5	-114	-	LOSS	-1.000	Peter Lambert: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	4.5	-163	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cade Cavalli: 2.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen	4.5	-122	-	WIN	+0.820	Drew Rasmussen: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Bryce Elder	4.5	-139	-	WIN	+0.719	Bryce Elder: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Jameson Taillon	4.5	-155	-	WIN	+0.645	Jameson Taillon: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-05	K Prop	Shohei Ohtani	6.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Shohei Ohtani: 8.0 (line 6.5)
2026-05-05	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-130	-	LOSS	-1.000	Ben Rice: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-05-05	Batter H+R+RBI	Aaron Judge	1.5	-126	-	WIN	+0.794	Aaron Judge: 2.0 (line 1.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 568 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 225 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 81 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 17 team(s), 153 player(s)
✓	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1454 career PA
⚠	Umpires confirmed: 10 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Athletics, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
✓	Weather: 4 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 6 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 472 \| batter bats 178 \| batter hand splits 178 \| pitcher HR splits 77 \| batter pitch-type 430 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	HR model: 191 batter(s) scored \| 11 game environment(s) scored \| 15 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	4:08 PM	-113	-107	-1.5 (+148)	+1.5 (-180)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	4:10 PM	+117	-141	+1.5 (-180)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-126	+105	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+169	-207	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+100)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	9:21 PM	-171	+141	-1.5 (-108)	+1.5 (-112)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

2 Grade A  |  12 Grade B  |  735 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 2 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	K Prop	Colin Rea Over	RED@CUB	7:41 PM	4.5	-143	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	46.2%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Jeffrey Springs Over	ATH@PHI	6:41 PM	4.5	-140	BetRivers Over 3.5 -122 \| alt rescue	30.4%	✓✓✓✓–✓	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Colin Rea Over 4.5 (-143) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 46.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.08K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.14)
Colin Rea: K/9 8.2, proj 6.6K over 6.7 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 12% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 127 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .267 | OPS .816
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 127 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.29 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 3/7 over 4.5

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 (-140) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -122 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 30.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.37K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 8.4, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 19% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barrett — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jeffrey Springs: 41 PA | K% 39.0% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .125 | OPS .471
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 4.5

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (12 play(s))

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (-120) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 21.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.38K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 3/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Zack Wheeler: K/9 9.8, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 32.6% | put-away% 25.6% | xwOBA 0.250 | top pitch: Sweeper (57% whiff, 14% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barrett — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 64 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .196 | OPS .493
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 64 roster PA
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 6.5

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Will Warren Over 5.5 (-158) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.8% / under 42.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.92K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.29)
Will Warren: K/9 10.7, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Sweeper (24% whiff, 24% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .433
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.57 | Season Avg 6.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-158) — break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 (+133) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 15.581999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.3 (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 5.5 IP/2 start(s), xFIP 4.03)
DK books agree: NO (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 64 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .196 | OPS .493
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/2 under 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-141) diff 97.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.95
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 27/37 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-146) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/33 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-133) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 21/36 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-129) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/35 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-128) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 30 PA | 7/28 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 3.3% | OPS .657
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/35 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-114) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓!!–✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/36 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-133) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/36 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-139) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/33 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-137) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: !!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/33 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	Total	Over 7.5	-102	48.3%	65.7%	+17.4%	$+30.03	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (1 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (Total) +17.4%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Isaiah Jackson (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5 [April dampening ×0.99]
Home SP: Cole Ragans (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Cole Ragans small sample (32 IP) — stats 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Joey Cantillo small sample (34 IP) — stats 42% actual / 58% league avg (regression applied)
Kansas City Royals small sample — offense 44% actual / 56% league avg (regression applied)
Cleveland Guardians small sample — offense 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners (F5)	F5 ML	Atlanta Braves	+140	39.3%	50.7%	+11.4%	$+21.77	8	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	F5 ML	Athletics	+140	39.3%	48.3%	+8.9%	$+15.84	8	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners (F5) (F5 ML) +11.4%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Dylan Dodd (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER)
Bryan Woo xFIP 4.43
Martín Pérez xFIP 4.28
Home SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)
Away SP: Martín Pérez (LHP)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +8.9%

[INJ] Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Naoel Mejia (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Kyle Backhus (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Zack Wheeler xFIP 4.03
Jeffrey Springs xFIP 4.25
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Away SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why not play? (11 games below threshold)

Game	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Michael Soroka / Paul Skenes	5.4 / 7.7	4.6 / 7.7	+5.8%	Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate)
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	Will Warren / Nathan Eovaldi	5.2 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	+7.8%	Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 7.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	Michael Lorenzen / Freddy Peralta	4.9 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	+5.7%	Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate)
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	Zack Wheeler / Jeffrey Springs	4.6 / 7.7	5.4 / 7.7	-3.6%	Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -3.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (9 PA < 30 gate)
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	Cole Ragans / Joey Cantillo	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-10.8%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Jack Flaherty / Sonny Gray	3.4 / 7.7	6.7 / 7.7	-12.9%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate)
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	Bryan Woo / Martín Pérez	3.2 / 7.7	6.8 / 7.7	-18.0%	Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -18.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate)
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	Walbert Ureña / Noah Schultz	3.0 / 7.7	7.0 / 7.7	-17.0%	Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -17.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (9 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate)
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	Eury Pérez / Brandon Young	3.0 / 7.7	7.0 / 7.7	-18.8%	Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -18.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (16 PA < 30 gate)
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	Colin Rea / Brady Singer	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-24.5%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -24.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate)
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	Miles Mikolas / Bailey Ober	2.5 / 7.7	7.5 / 7.7	-17.2%	Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -17.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate)

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR probability + pitcher vulnerability + park/weather + best-book price; No-HR inverse is support/conflict only

HR props parsed: 191 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=191
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed

Batter HR Candidates

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	Implied	Model	Edge	Score
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona Diamondbacks	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	-	Paul Skenes (R)	theScore Bet	+1100	-	7.9%	17.0%	+9.1%	91
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Daniel Schneemann	Unknown	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	8.6%	16.2%	+7.6%	87
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Dansby Swanson	Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	-	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	18.0%	+7.5%	92
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Tyler Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+1100	-	7.9%	15.3%	+7.4%	85
Strong HR Candidate	Starling Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+900	-	9.4%	16.6%	+7.2%	88
Strong HR Candidate	Angel Martinez	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	-	Cole Ragans (L)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	17.6%	+7.1%	90
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Edouard Julien	Unknown	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	17.5%	+7.1%	90
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jeremiah Jackson	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	-	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	17.4%	+7.0%	90
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Liam Hicks	Miami Marlins	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	2	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	18.0%	+6.3%	91
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Brooks Lee	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	2	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	17.6%	+5.9%	89
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Ryan O'Hearn	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	-	Michael Soroka (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	17.5%	+5.8%	89
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Drew Romo	Unknown	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	-	Walbert Ureña (R)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	8.6%	14.3%	+5.7%	81
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Carlos Narvaez	Unknown	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	-	Jack Flaherty (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	16.0%	+5.5%	85
Strong HR Candidate	Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	7	Jeffrey Springs (L)	theScore Bet	+700	-	11.7%	17.2%	+5.5%	88
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Carson Kelly	Unknown	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	-	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	8.6%	14.0%	+5.4%	80
Strong HR Candidate	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	-	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	18.0%	+4.7%	89
Strong HR Candidate	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	-	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	18.0%	+4.7%	89
Strong HR Candidate	Nathaniel Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	-	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	18.0%	+4.7%	89
Strong HR Candidate	Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	-	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+1200	-	7.3%	11.8%	+4.5%	74
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Sam Antonacci	Unknown	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	-	Walbert Ureña (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	14.8%	+4.3%	81

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	100	94.6%	-1758	CJ Abrams, Byron Buxton, James Wood, Brooks Lee	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| Wind 16 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	100	93.8%	-1519	Mike Trout, Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	100	92.7%	-1269	Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	100	90.3%	-927	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Kurtz	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| Wind 14 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	100	89.5%	-854	Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, Starling Marte, Daniel Schneemann	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	100	88.4%	-764	Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	100	87.4%	-696	Elly De La Cruz, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Nathaniel Lowe	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 10 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	100	86.1%	-621	Dillon Dingler, Wilyer Abreu, Spencer Torkelson, Willson Contreras	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	100	85.5%	-590	Liam Hicks, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Jeremiah Jackson	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	100	84.7%	-552	Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Ildemaro Vargas	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	100	81.6%	-443	Hunter Goodman, Juan Soto, Mickey Moniak, Mark Vientos	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| Cold (32F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry	-

HR Candidate Detail

Parlay Sprinkle Only Ildemaro Vargas — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+1100) edge +9.1%

▼ Factors & Risks (11)

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 1.041, ISO 0.271, TB/G 2.56
Statcast: barrel 5.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 87.7/109.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.498
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0274, xFIP 3.07, K% 29.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.240, xERA 2.25, whiff 24.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.027, OPS 0.991, ISO 0.220 (73 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.447, xwOBA 0.340 (21 PA)
Park HR factor 1.02
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.86x

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Parlay Sprinkle Only Daniel Schneemann — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+1000) edge +7.6%

▼ Factors & Risks (8)

Statcast: barrel 9.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/107.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.451
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Park HR factor 0.93
Market espnbet +1000: implied 8.6%

⚠ Batter team unresolved

⚠ Batter power stats unavailable

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

Elite HR Longshot Edge Dansby Swanson — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (+800) edge +7.5%

▼ Factors & Risks (9)

Power baseline HR/G 0.171, OPS 0.717, ISO 0.188, TB/G 1.31
Statcast: barrel 11.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.437
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0507, xFIP 4.78, K% 13.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.382, xERA 6.15, whiff 20.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.032, OPS 0.647, ISO 0.142 (95 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.631, xwOBA 0.427 (14 PA)
Park HR factor 1.05
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.97x

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Parlay Sprinkle Only Tyler Freeman — New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies (+1100) edge +7.4%

▼ Factors & Risks (10)

Power baseline HR/G 0.086, OPS 0.753, ISO 0.144, TB/G 1.66
Statcast: barrel 12.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.545
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0410, xFIP 4.34, K% 14.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.55, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.018, OPS 0.796, ISO 0.157 (110 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.614, xwOBA 0.440 (18 PA)
Park HR factor 1.20
Market espnbet +1100: implied 7.9%

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

⚠ Cold weather 32F

Strong HR Candidate Starling Marte — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+900) edge +7.2%

▼ Factors & Risks (10)

Power baseline HR/G 0.151, OPS 0.651, ISO 0.153, TB/G 1.48
Statcast: barrel 9.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.000, OPS 0.650, ISO 0.051 (41 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.390, xwOBA 0.317 (31 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Market espnbet +900: implied 9.4%

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

Strong HR Candidate Angel Martinez — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+800) edge +7.1%

▼ Factors & Risks (11)

Power baseline HR/G 0.151, OPS 0.784, ISO 0.206, TB/G 1.55
Statcast: barrel 9.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.6/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.433
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0724, xFIP 4.32, K% 29.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.358, xERA 5.27, whiff 30.7%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.026, OPS 0.641, ISO 0.108 (38 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.574, xwOBA 0.440 (19 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.90x

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ Weak batter split vs_lhp

Parlay Sprinkle Only Edouard Julien — New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies (+800) edge +7.1%

▼ Factors & Risks (8)

Statcast: barrel 10.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/109.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.440
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0410, xFIP 4.34, K% 14.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.55, whiff 22.1%
Park HR factor 1.20
Market espnbet +800: implied 10.4%

⚠ Batter team unresolved

⚠ Batter power stats unavailable

⚠ Cold weather 32F

Elite HR Longshot Edge Jeremiah Jackson — Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins (+800) edge +7.0%

▼ Factors & Risks (10)

Power baseline HR/G 0.176, OPS 0.722, ISO 0.187, TB/G 1.47
Statcast: barrel 8.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.1/110.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.409
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.703, ISO 0.212 (86 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0606
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.448, xwOBA 0.298 (22 PA)
Park HR factor 0.88
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.86x
Market espnbet +800: implied 10.4%

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Avoid / Trap List

Player	Game	Odds	Edge	Why avoid
Jo Adell	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	+375	-13.2%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Taylor Ward	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	+550	-13.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable
Andrew Benintendi	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	+550	-11.3%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable
Kyle Stowers	Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	+425	-11.1%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher season stats unavailable
Trevor Story	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	+600	-10.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Alec Bohm	Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	+700	-10.0%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Brett Baty	New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	+700	-9.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold weather 32F
Marcell Ozuna	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	+550	-9.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Joc Pederson	Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	+500	-9.4%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Elite strikeout pitcher
Mike Yastrzemski	Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	+550	-9.2%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% to play

Game	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies	Michael Lorenzen	Freddy Peralta	1.20	18.4%	49.6%	12.4%	+6.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Michael Soroka	Paul Skenes	1.02	15.3%	44.1%	—	—
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins	Eury Pérez	Brandon Young	0.88	14.5%	42.5%	11.2%	+3.3%
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Jack Flaherty	Sonny Gray	0.91	13.9%	41.3%	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	Colin Rea	Brady Singer	1.05	12.6%	38.6%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees	Will Warren	Nathan Eovaldi	1.18	11.6%	36.5%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	Cole Ragans	Joey Cantillo	0.93	10.5%	34.1%	—	—
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies	Zack Wheeler	Jeffrey Springs	1.10	9.7%	32.4%	8.0%	+1.8%
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	Bryan Woo	Martín Pérez	0.92	7.3%	26.4%	6.2%	+1.1%
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	Walbert Ureña	Noah Schultz	0.98	6.2%	23.4%	5.9%	+0.3%
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals	Miles Mikolas	Bailey Ober	1.02	5.4%	21.1%	5.4%	+0.0%

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 2 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR Candidates

Game HR Environments

HR Candidate Detail

Avoid / Trap List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes