| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 243W–219L–3P | 53% | -22.45 u | Last 14 days • 465 settled |
| Grade A | 30W–30L–0P | 50% | -7.56 u | |
| Grade B | 213W–189L–3P | 53% | -14.89 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 386W–349L–5P | 53% | -35.84 u | All-time • 740 settled |
| Grade A | 71W–54L–0P | 57% | -0.14 u | |
| Grade B | 315W–295L–5P | 52% | -35.70 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | K Prop | Payton Tolle | 4.5 | -137 | - | WIN | +0.730 | Payton Tolle: 8.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-04 | Batter H+R+RBI | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | -132 | - | WIN | +0.758 | Jordan Walker: 2.0 (line 1.5) |
| 2026-05-04 | Batter H+R+RBI | Yandy Diaz | 1.5 | -133 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Yandy Díaz: 0.0 (line 1.5) |
| 2026-05-04 | Batter H+R+RBI | Otto Lopez | 1.5 | -148 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Otto Lopez: 1.0 (line 1.5) |
| 2026-05-04 | Batter H+R+RBI | Liam Hicks | 1.5 | -125 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Liam Hicks: 0.0 (line 1.5) |
| 2026-05-04 | Batter H+R+RBI | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | -139 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Alec Burleson: 0.0 (line 1.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 563 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 222 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 79 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 21 team(s), 189 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 1607 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros |
| ✓ | Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 14 game(s) fetched | 14 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 2 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 12 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 470 | batter bats 179 | batter hand splits 179 | pitcher HR splits 73 | batter pitch-type 430 | bullpen HR 0 |
| ✓ | HR model: 244 batter(s) scored | 14 game environment(s) scored | 60 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | +169 | -207 | +1.5 (-120) | -1.5 (+100) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | +115 | -138 | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (+148) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | 6:41 PM | +133 | -161 | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (+124) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +119 | -143 | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+159) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+122) | +1.5 (-147) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+159) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 7:40 PM | +137 | -166 | +1.5 (-154) | -1.5 (+128) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-175) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+143) | +1.5 (-174) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | -227 | +184 | -1.5 (-130) | +1.5 (+108) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+140) | +1.5 (-169) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+149) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | +113 | -136 | +1.5 (-186) | -1.5 (+153) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | 9:46 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+159) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | TWI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | -120 | theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190 | alt rescue | 57.4% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Over | JAY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | -116 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -116 | best price | 35.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | -118 | DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact | 33.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Bryce Elder Over | BRA@MAR | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | -134 | DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact | 27.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Jameson Taillon Over | RED@CUB | 7:40 PM | 4.5 | -155 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215 | best price | 22.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@AST | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | -145 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 +130 | alt rescue | 22.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | Run Line | Houston Astros +1.5 | +108 | 46.0% | 69.5% | +23.5% | $+44.47 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Total | Over 8.0 | -115 | 51.1% | 68.3% | +17.2% | $+27.69 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Total | Over 7.5 | -118 | 51.7% | 68.0% | +16.3% | $+25.63 | 8 | Bet on DK |
| C | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Total | Over 7.0 | +100 | 47.8% | 63.9% | +16.1% | $+27.87 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Run Line | Athletics +1.5 | -120 | 52.2% | 67.7% | +15.5% | $+24.14 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (F5) | F5 ML | Houston Astros | +175 | 34.3% | 49.2% | +15.0% | $+35.41 | — | Bet on DK |
| B | Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | F5 ML | Athletics | +165 | 35.6% | 46.5% | +10.9% | $+23.32 | — | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.
| Game | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Stephen Kolek / Gavin Williams ⚠ Home SP | 5.7 / 7.7 | 4.3 / 7.7 | +8.8% | Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found Home SP (Stephen Kolek) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | Cade Cavalli / Taj Bradley | 5.6 / 7.7 | 4.4 / 7.7 | +13.9% | Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | Peter Lambert / Shohei Ohtani | 5.3 / 7.7 | 4.7 / 7.7 | +6.6% | Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 6.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (14 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Drew Rasmussen / Kevin Gausman | 5.1 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | -0.7% | Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Andre Pallante / Brandon Sproat | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -5.3% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Logan Webb / Walker Buehler | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -9.1% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -9.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate) |
| Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Framber Valdez / Jovani Morán | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -8.5% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -8.5% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Jameson Taillon / Andrew Abbott | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -11.6% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | George Kirby / Bryce Elder | 3.8 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -12.9% | Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | Elmer Rodríguez / Jacob deGrom | 3.8 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -5.8% | Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Cristopher Sánchez / Luis Severino | 3.5 / 7.7 | 6.5 / 7.7 | -11.8% | Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.8% < 8% required |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Eduardo Rodriguez / Bubba Chandler | 3.5 / 7.7 | 6.5 / 7.7 | -10.2% | Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | Sandy Alcantara / Chris Bassitt | 3.3 / 7.7 | 6.7 / 7.7 | -17.0% | Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -17.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | Sam Aldegheri / Erick Fedde | 3.1 / 7.7 | 6.9 / 7.7 | -11.5% | Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | Implied | Model | Edge | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Candidate | Victor Scott II | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Andre Pallante (R) | theScore Bet | +1400 | - | 6.4% | 24.0% | +17.6% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | - | Bubba Chandler (R) | theScore Bet | +1100 | - | 7.9% | 24.0% | +16.1% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 2 | Stephen Kolek (R) | theScore Bet | +1000 | - | 8.6% | 24.0% | +15.4% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Andre Pallante (R) | theScore Bet | +1000 | - | 8.6% | 24.0% | +15.4% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Brett Harris | Unknown | Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | - | Cristopher Sánchez (L) | theScore Bet | +1000 | - | 8.6% | 23.9% | +15.3% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | - | Stephen Kolek (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 24.0% | +14.6% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Sam Antonacci | Unknown | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | - | Sam Aldegheri (L) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 24.0% | +14.6% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 6 | Gavin Williams (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 24.0% | +13.6% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 2 | Chris Bassitt (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 24.0% | +12.3% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Andre Pallante (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 24.0% | +12.3% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Nolan Arenado | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | - | Bubba Chandler (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 24.0% | +12.3% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Gabriel Moreno | Unknown | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | - | Eduardo Rodriguez (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 24.0% | +12.3% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | - | Eduardo Rodriguez (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 24.0% | +12.3% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Ramon Laureano | San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | - | Logan Webb (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 21.4% | +12.0% | 98 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Nathan Church | Unknown | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Andre Pallante (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 20.9% | +11.4% | 95 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | 4 | Jovani Morán (L) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 11.7% | 22.7% | +11.0% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Josh Jung | Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 3 | Elmer Rodríguez (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 24.0% | +10.7% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | JJ Bleday | Unknown | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | - | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 24.0% | +10.7% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Tyler Stephenson | Unknown | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | - | Jameson Taillon (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 24.0% | +10.7% | 100 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Jackson Chourio | Unknown | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Andre Pallante (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 24.0% | +10.7% | 100 |
| Tier | Game | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | 100 | 94.2% | -1620 | Josh Jung, Cody Bellinger, Jake Burger, Trent Grisham | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | Wind 16 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 100 | 93.0% | -1327 | JJ Bleday, Tyler Stephenson, Nathaniel Lowe, Dansby Swanson | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | 100 | 92.8% | -1284 | CJ Abrams, James Wood, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | Wind 19 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | 100 | 90.7% | -973 | Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brett Harris | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | Wind 19 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 100 | 90.2% | -916 | Sam Antonacci, Josh Lowe, Zach Neto, Miguel Vargas | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 100 | 89.1% | -819 | Victor Scott II, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN | Precip chance 45% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | 100 | 88.5% | -769 | Jonathan Aranda, Kazuma Okamoto, Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.5% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 100 | 86.7% | -651 | Ildemaro Vargas, Nolan Arenado, Gabriel Moreno, Bryan Reynolds | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | 100 | 86.2% | -625 | Max Muncy, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Andy Pages | Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8% | - |
| Watchlist | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 100 | 84.1% | -530 | Chase DeLauter, Angel Martinez, Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Watchlist | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | 96 | 83.2% | -496 | Liam Hicks, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Otto Lopez | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | - |
| Watchlist | Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | 98 | 82.4% | -469 | Drake Baldwin, Cal Raleigh, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | - |
| Watchlist | Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | 93 | 82.2% | -460 | Willson Contreras, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | Wind 11 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect | - |
| Watchlist | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | 81 | 79.8% | -395 | Ramon Laureano, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets | Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.2%, P(U1.5) 52.5% |
| Player | Game | Odds | Edge | Why avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | +400 | -13.3% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Rafael Devers | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | +525 | -12.8% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Matt Chapman | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | +600 | -12.2% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Jo Adell | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | +425 | -11.1% | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Elieser Hernández | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | +450 | -11.1% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Batter Statcast power unavailable | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Michael Busch | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | +550 | -11.1% | Low season HR rate |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | +500 | -11.0% | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) |
| Cedric Mullins | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | +600 | -10.7% | Low lineup spot (7) | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | +700 | -10.6% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs |
| Kyle Tucker | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | +500 | -10.6% | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | High-whiff arsenal |
| Game | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Logan Webb | Walker Buehler | 0.82 | 20.2% PLAY | 52.5% PLAY | — | — |
| Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Framber Valdez | Jovani Morán | 0.91 | 17.9% | 48.6% | 12.3% | +5.6% |
| Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | George Kirby | Bryce Elder | 0.92 | 17.6% | 48.1% | 10.0% | +7.5% |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | Sandy Alcantara | Chris Bassitt | 0.88 | 16.8% | 46.7% | 9.5% | +7.3% |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Stephen Kolek | Gavin Williams | 0.93 | 15.9% | 45.1% | 13.3% | +2.6% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | Peter Lambert | Shohei Ohtani | 1.00 | 13.8% | 41.1% | 6.7% | +7.1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Eduardo Rodriguez | Bubba Chandler | 1.02 | 13.3% | 40.2% | — | — |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Drew Rasmussen | Kevin Gausman | 0.94 | 11.5% | 36.4% | 10.4% | +1.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Andre Pallante | Brandon Sproat | 0.93 | 10.9% | 35.0% | 11.8% | -0.9% |
| Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | Sam Aldegheri | Erick Fedde | 0.98 | 9.8% | 32.7% | 9.0% | +0.9% |
| Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies | Cristopher Sánchez | Luis Severino | 1.10 | 9.3% | 31.4% | 7.2% | +2.1% |
| Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals | Cade Cavalli | Taj Bradley | 1.02 | 7.2% | 26.2% | 8.1% | -0.9% |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Jameson Taillon | Andrew Abbott | 1.05 | 7.0% | 25.6% | 8.0% | -1.0% |
| Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees | Elmer Rodríguez | Jacob deGrom | 1.18 | 5.8% | 22.4% | 4.7% | +1.1% |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.