MLB Bets 2026-05-04

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	242W–219L–1P	52%	-23.71 u	Last 14 days • 462 settled
Grade A	29W–27L–0P	52%	-5.43 u
Grade B	213W–192L–1P	53%	-18.28 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	371W–336L–3P	52%	-34.52 u	All-time • 710 settled
Grade A	69W–50L–0P	58%	+2.37 u
Grade B	302W–286L–3P	51%	-36.89 u

28 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-03	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-133	-	WIN	+0.752	Braxton Ashcraft: 6.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-03	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-118	-	WIN	+0.847	Chase Burns: 7.0 (line 6.5)
2026-05-03	Batter H+R+RBI	Dansby Swanson	1.5	-123	-	LOSS	-1.000	Dansby Swanson: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-05-03	K Prop	Logan Henderson	4.5	-115	-	WIN	+0.870	Logan Henderson: 8.0 (line 4.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 559 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 219 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 77 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 24 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 19 team(s), 171 player(s)
⚠	Umpires confirmed: 10 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 24 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers
✓	Bullpen data: 24 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians
✓	Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 9 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 463 \| batter bats 181 \| batter hand splits 181 \| pitcher HR splits 74 \| batter pitch-type 426 \| bullpen HR 0
✓	HR model: 189 batter(s) scored \| 11 game environment(s) scored \| 59 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:11 PM	-122	+102	-1.5 (+132)	+1.5 (-160)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+179	-219	+1.5 (-112)	-1.5 (-108)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:11 PM	+171	-209	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 11.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+152)	+1.5 (-184)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-126	+105	-1.5 (+133)	+1.5 (-161)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-199	+163	-1.5 (-126)	+1.5 (+104)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

5 Grade A  |  18 Grade B  |  720 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 5 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker Over	BRE@CAR	7:46 PM	1.5	-132	BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	91.0%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz Over	JAY@RAY	6:41 PM	1.5	-133	Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	82.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez Over	PHI@MAR	6:41 PM	1.5	-148	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 \| best price	75.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Liam Hicks Over	PHI@MAR	6:41 PM	1.5	-125	BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 \| best price	73.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson Over	BRE@CAR	7:46 PM	1.5	-139	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	68.4%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-132) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.82
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/33 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-133) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.55
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 21/31 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-148) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 25/33 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-125) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-139) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/33 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (18 play(s))

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 6.5 (-119) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 +175 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 21.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.37K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 3/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.14)
Jose Soriano: K/9 10.1, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 33.2% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Curveball (49% whiff, 26% usage)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 6.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Under 17.5 (-112) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 14.957 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.0 (xFIP 4.30)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 98)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.67 | Season Avg 18.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/6 under 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 17.5 (+136) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +145 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.018 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.2% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 4.01)
DK books agree: NO (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- DK LOWER
Opp batting adj: -0.3 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 109)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/6 (17%) | L20 1/6 (17%) | Season 1/6 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.83 | Season Avg 18.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/6 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 (+119) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.143 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.2 (xFIP 3.90)
DK books agree: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.4 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 112)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.29 | Season Avg 16.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/7 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Janson Junk Under 5.5 (+100) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 3.9299999999999997 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 28.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 (WHIP 1.14, BB% 7.5%)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 93)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/6 under 5.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 (-165) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 4.335 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.4%)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 109)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.83 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-165) — break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-136) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Checks: !✓✓–!– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.71
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 21/35 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-136) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 21/34 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ ⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A capped at B

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-124) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: !✓✓–!– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/34 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-120) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/34 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-128) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Opp SP xwOBA 0.375 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/33 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-152) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/34 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Heavy juice (-152) — break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-124) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/30 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-140) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/33 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-129) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Opp SP xwOBA 0.375 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/33 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — Houston Astros (+154) edge 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (F5)

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +154

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Steven Okert xFIP 4.42
Yoshinobu Yamamoto xFIP 4.01
Home SP: Steven Okert (LHP)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day | [DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day | [DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — Cincinnati Reds (+150) edge 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (F5)

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +150

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Edward Cabrera xFIP 4.14
Away SP TBD
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP)
Away SP: Chase Petty (RHP)

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day | [INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Run Line — Houston Astros +1.5 1.5 (+104) edge 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Best Book / Line: LowVig Houston Astros 1.5 +108 | best price

Checks: –✓✗✓!✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+40.87/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 22.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds +104 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Steven Okert (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Steven Okert small sample (15 IP) — stats 18% actual / 82% league avg (regression applied)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto small sample (37 IP) — stats 46% actual / 54% league avg (regression applied)
Houston Astros small sample — offense 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
Los Angeles Dodgers small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High RL edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	Total	Under 11.5	-112	50.4%	78.7%	+28.3%	$+48.98	9	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	Run Line	Houston Astros +1.5	+104	46.8%	69.1%	+22.3%	$+40.87	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Under 11.5 — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +28.3%

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 11.5 [April dampening ×0.98]
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chase Petty (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Away SP (Chase Petty) stats unavailable — used league avg
Edward Cabrera small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
Chicago Cubs small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)
Cincinnati Reds small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)

B Houston Astros +1.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (Run Line) +22.3%

[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+40.87/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 22.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds +104 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Steven Okert (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Steven Okert small sample (15 IP) — stats 18% actual / 82% league avg (regression applied)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto small sample (37 IP) — stats 46% actual / 54% league avg (regression applied)
Houston Astros small sample — offense 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
Los Angeles Dodgers small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (F5)	F5 ML	Houston Astros	+154	37.1%	48.4%	+11.2%	$+22.82	—	Bet on DK
B	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	F5 ML	Cincinnati Reds	+150	37.7%	48.3%	+10.6%	$+20.87	—	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

B Houston Astros — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (F5) (F5 ML) +11.2%

[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Steven Okert xFIP 4.42
Yoshinobu Yamamoto xFIP 4.01
Home SP: Steven Okert (LHP)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)

B Cincinnati Reds — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 ML) +10.6%

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Edward Cabrera xFIP 4.14
Away SP TBD
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP)
Away SP: Chase Petty (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why not play? (11 games below threshold)

Game	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	José Soriano / Davis Martin	5.4 / 7.7	4.6 / 7.7	+3.2%	Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Tyler Holton / Payton Tolle	5.2 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	+6.2%	Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (7 PA < 30 gate)
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	Logan Gilbert / JR Ritchie	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	+2.8%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (9 PA < 30 gate)
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	Edward Cabrera / Chase Petty ⚠ Away SP	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	+10.1%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found Away SP (Chase Petty) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	Trevor McDonald / Randy Vásquez ⚠ Home SP	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	+0.2%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge 0.2% < 8% required Home SP (Trevor McDonald) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate)
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	Cam Schlittler / Shane Baz	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-5.0%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate)
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	Michael Wacha / Tanner Bibee	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-4.8%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	Janson Junk / Aaron Nola	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-10.9%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	Steven Okert / Yoshinobu Yamamoto	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-11.5%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (2 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate)
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Kyle Leahy / Chad Patrick	3.0 / 7.7	7.0 / 7.7	-14.3%	Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	Nick Martinez / Eric Lauer	2.4 / 7.7	7.6 / 7.7	-21.9%	Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -21.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate)

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR probability + pitcher vulnerability + park/weather + best-book price; No-HR inverse is support/conflict only

HR props parsed: 189 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=189
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed

Batter HR Candidates

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	Implied	Model	Edge	Score
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Victor Scott II	Atlanta Braves	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+1200	-	7.3%	42.0%	+34.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Liam Hicks	Miami Marlins	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	5	Aaron Nola (R)	theScore Bet	+900	-	9.4%	42.0%	+32.6%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Pedro Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+900	-	9.4%	42.0%	+32.6%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Yainer Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	-	Steven Okert (L)	theScore Bet	+900	-	9.4%	42.0%	+32.6%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	3	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.4%	42.0%	+31.6%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	5	Eric Lauer (L)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	42.0%	+28.7%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Angel Martinez	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	42.0%	+28.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Josh Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	-	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	13.3%	42.0%	+28.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	-	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	14.3%	42.0%	+27.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	7	Steven Okert (L)	theScore Bet	+525	-	15.0%	42.0%	+27.0%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Cody Bellinger	New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	3	Shane Baz (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	15.6%	42.0%	+26.4%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	1	Chad Patrick (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	15.6%	42.0%	+26.4%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	-	Eric Lauer (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	16.4%	42.0%	+25.6%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Nathaniel Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	-	Edward Cabrera (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	16.4%	42.0%	+25.6%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	3	Chad Patrick (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	17.1%	42.0%	+24.9%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	5	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	17.1%	42.0%	+24.9%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	17.1%	42.0%	+24.9%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	2	Tyler Holton (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	17.9%	42.0%	+24.1%	100
Parlay Sprinkle Only	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	1	Cam Schlittler (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	17.9%	42.0%	+24.1%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	5	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	17.9%	42.0%	+24.1%	100

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	100	99.0%	-9900	Victor Scott II, Pedro Pages, Brice Turang, JJ Wetherholt	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 16 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	100	99.0%	-9900	Yainer Diaz, Andy Pages, Christian Walker, Max Muncy	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	100	98.2%	-5613	Nathaniel Lowe, Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Ian Happ	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	100	97.6%	-4132	Cody Bellinger, Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	100	97.6%	-4119	Josh Lowe, Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Mike Trout	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| Wind 10 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	100	96.5%	-2760	Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz, Kazuma Okamoto, Junior Caminero	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	100	95.6%	-2174	Angel Martinez, Carter Jensen, Jose Ramirez, Vinnie Pasquantino	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	100	94.3%	-1666	Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	100	92.7%	-1268	Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Jahmai Jones, Wenceel Perez	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| Wind 16 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	100	90.1%	-914	Liam Hicks, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Pass	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	84	73.5%	-278	Ramon Laureano, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Luis Campusano	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-

HR Candidate Detail

Elite HR Longshot Edge Victor Scott II — Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (+1200) edge +34.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.219, OPS 0.911, ISO 0.236, TB/G 1.84
Statcast: barrel 18.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.2/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.656
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0480, xFIP 4.18, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.378, xERA 6.01, whiff 20.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 1.001, ISO 0.272 (82 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.333, xwOBA 0.216 (13 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Wind 16 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Risk: Team lineup not posted

Elite HR Longshot Edge Liam Hicks — Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (+900) edge +32.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.226, OPS 0.923, ISO 0.248, TB/G 1.74
Statcast: barrel 7.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.1/106.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.470
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0449, xFIP 3.70, K% 25.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.345, xERA 4.85, whiff 26.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.076, OPS 1.032, ISO 0.308 (92 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.416, xwOBA 0.402 (9 PA)
Park HR factor 0.88
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.00x
Risk: Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA)

Strong HR Candidate Pedro Pages — Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (+900) edge +32.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.147, OPS 0.867, ISO 0.187, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 5.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.8/109.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.447
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0480, xFIP 4.18, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.378, xERA 6.01, whiff 20.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.844, ISO 0.164 (107 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.551, xwOBA 0.432 (11 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Wind 16 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Risk: Confirmed lineup but player not listed

Strong HR Candidate Yainer Diaz — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (+900) edge +32.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.161, OPS 0.926, ISO 0.171, TB/G 1.90
Statcast: barrel 5.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.464
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0310, xFIP 5.38, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.332, xERA 4.44, whiff 22.5%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.993, ISO 0.260 (30 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.591, xwOBA 0.445 (18 PA)
Park HR factor 1.00
Market espnbet +900: implied 9.4%
Risk: Confirmed lineup but player not listed

Elite HR Longshot Edge Brice Turang — Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (+800) edge +31.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.133, OPS 0.919, ISO 0.200, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 10.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/109.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.541
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0480, xFIP 4.18, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.378, xERA 6.01, whiff 20.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 1.019, ISO 0.246 (97 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.393, xwOBA 0.371 (14 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Wind 16 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP

Elite HR Longshot Edge Jonathan Aranda — Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (+600) edge +28.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.814, ISO 0.210, TB/G 1.67
Statcast: barrel 10.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.8/107.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.447
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0603, xFIP 5.68, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.364, xERA 5.49, whiff 19.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.027, OPS 0.647, ISO 0.111 (37 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.718, xwOBA 0.452 (9 PA)
Park HR factor 0.94
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.02x
Risk: Weak batter split vs_lhp
Risk: Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA)

Strong HR Candidate Angel Martinez — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (+600) edge +28.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.161, OPS 0.786, ISO 0.205, TB/G 1.58
Statcast: barrel 9.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.3/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.435
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0251, xFIP 4.41, K% 22.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.335, xERA 4.53, whiff 27.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.257 (73 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0333
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.572, xwOBA 0.436 (18 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Risk: Confirmed lineup but player not listed

Elite HR Longshot Edge Josh Lowe — Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (+600) edge +28.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.267, OPS 0.878, ISO 0.279, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 12.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/110.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.474
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.031, ISO 0.325 (98 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0390
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.492, xwOBA 0.389 (19 PA)
Park HR factor 0.98
Market espnbet +600: implied 13.3%
Risk: Team lineup not posted
Risk: Pitcher season stats unavailable

Avoid / Trap List

Player	Game	Odds	Edge	Why avoid
Michael Busch	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	+350	-17.9%	Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	+375	-15.3%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Alex Bregman	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	+400	-13.3%	Pitcher season stats unavailable
Rafael Devers	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	+500	-12.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Kyle Stowers	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	+425	-12.4%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	+425	-12.2%	Team lineup not posted
Jo Adell	Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	+500	-11.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Garrett Mitchell	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	+550	-11.4%	Low season HR rate \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA)
Austin Wells	Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	+475	-10.5%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Adolis Garcia	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	+550	-10.4%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥56% to play

Game	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	Trevor McDonald	Randy Vásquez	0.82	16.2%	45.6%	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	Janson Junk	Aaron Nola	0.88	15.7%	44.7%	10.5%	+5.1%
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals	Michael Wacha	Tanner Bibee	0.93	15.2%	43.8%	8.2%	+6.9%
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	José Soriano	Davis Martin	0.98	14.9%	43.3%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners	Logan Gilbert	JR Ritchie	0.92	13.9%	41.4%	9.9%	+4.0%
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Tyler Holton	Payton Tolle	0.91	11.6%	36.7%	10.3%	+1.3%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	Nick Martinez	Eric Lauer	0.94	10.7%	34.7%	10.0%	+0.8%
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Kyle Leahy	Chad Patrick	0.93	9.9%	32.8%	9.4%	+0.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros	Steven Okert	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.00	8.1%	28.5%	5.3%	+2.8%
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	Edward Cabrera	Chase Petty	1.05	7.0%	25.7%	2.9%	+4.2%
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	Cam Schlittler	Shane Baz	1.18	5.2%	20.6%	5.4%	-0.2%

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 5 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR Candidates

Game HR Environments

HR Candidate Detail

Avoid / Trap List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes