MLB Bets 2026-05-03

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	227W–201L–0P	53%	-17.18 u	Last 14 days • 428 settled
Grade A	26W–26L–0P	50%	-6.90 u
Grade B	201W–175L–0P	53%	-10.28 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	347W–308L–2P	53%	-27.04 u	All-time • 657 settled
Grade A	66W–49L–0P	57%	+0.90 u
Grade B	281W–259L–2P	52%	-27.94 u

53 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-02	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	4.5	-137	-	WIN	+0.730	Shota Imanaga: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-02	K Prop	Landen Roupp	4.5	-135	-	WIN	+0.741	Landen Roupp: 6.0 (line 4.5)
2026-05-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-122	-	LOSS	-1.000	Michael King: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-02	K Prop	Dylan Cease	6.5	-133	-	WIN	+0.752	Dylan Cease: 7.0 (line 6.5)
2026-05-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Oneil Cruz	1.5	-124	-	WIN	+0.806	Oneil Cruz: 5.0 (line 1.5)
2026-05-02	Batter H+R+RBI	William Contreras	1.5	-131	-	WIN	+0.763	William Contreras: 2.0 (line 1.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 552 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 213 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 73 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 28 team(s), 252 player(s)
✓	Umpires confirmed: 14 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds
✓	Weather: 9 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 8 game(s) fetched \| 8 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 0 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 8 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 7 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 461 \| batter bats 182 \| batter hand splits 183 \| pitcher HR splits 78 \| batter pitch-type 422 \| bullpen HR 0
✓	HR model: 138 batter(s) scored \| 8 game environment(s) scored \| 40 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+113)	+1.5 (-136)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 11.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+102)	+1.5 (-122)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	4:06 PM	-122	+102	-1.5 (+129)	+1.5 (-156)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	4:08 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	+159	-194	+1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+104	-126	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-194)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	7:21 PM	+104	-126	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-194)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

2 Grade A  |  23 Grade B  |  390 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 2 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	Pitcher Hits All	Kyle Freeland Under	BRA@ROC	3:11 PM	6.5	-119	DK Under 6.5 -119 \| exact	28.2%	✓✓✓✓–✓	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker Over	DOD@CAR	2:16 PM	1.5	-141	ESPN BET Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	89.4%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Under 6.5 (-119) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 4.665 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 28.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 (WHIP 1.21, BB% 7.8%)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.3 hits (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 111)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/5 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-141) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: ESPN BET Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/32 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (23 play(s))

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Kris Bubic Under 17.5 (-144) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 14.975 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.4% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.0 (xFIP 4.23)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 98)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.83 | Season Avg 16.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/6 under 17.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Jack Kochanowicz Under 17.5 (-107) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.175 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 4.9 (xFIP 4.32)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.4 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 88)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/6 under 17.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Kochanowicz Under 5.5 (-107) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 3.4875 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 36.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 (WHIP 1.21, BB% 10.1%)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.3 hits (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 88)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-131) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 6.89 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.34 (WHIP 1.77, BB% 9.9%)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 108)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/3 over 5.5

B GOOD ADD Batter Hits — Juan Soto Under 1.5 (-231) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: ESPN BET Under 1.5 +220 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (6)

Proj 0.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK LOWER
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-156) diff 139.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: ESPN BET Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 3.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 139.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.12
Opp SP xwOBA 0.526 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ ⚠ High hits diff 139% (≥120%) — verify projection

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-158) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.526 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ ⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A capped at B

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-127) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: !✓✓✓!✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.526 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/32 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-152) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

Best Book / Line: ESPN BET Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.72
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/32 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-137) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/32 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-124) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/33 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-138) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/33 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-138) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: !!✓✓!✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 19/33 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (-146) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/30 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-137) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Opp SP xwOBA 0.526 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (-120) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.427 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/31 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-131) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Opp SP xwOBA 0.427 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Checks: ✓!✓!✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-115) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Opp SP xwOBA 0.427 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/31 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-122) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/33 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-132) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Checks: ✓!✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/31 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-143) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Best Book / Line: ESPN BET Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: !!✓✓!✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.526 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/33 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

B GOOD ADD Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-128) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

Best Book / Line: ESPN BET Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Checks: !!✓!✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.50
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 24/34 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	Total	Under 11.5	-105	48.9%	78.6%	+29.7%	$+53.40	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	Run Line	Los Angeles Angels +1.5	-143	56.3%	73.0%	+16.7%	$+24.05	9	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Run Line	St. Louis Cardinals +1.5	-136	55.1%	71.0%	+15.9%	$+23.23	9	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	Run Line	Colorado Rockies +1.5	-122	52.6%	68.3%	+15.7%	$+24.31	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Under 11.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +29.7%

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Luke Craig (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 18 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 11.5 [April dampening ×0.98]
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Merrill Kelly (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Matthew Boyd small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)
Merrill Kelly small sample (14 IP) — stats 17% actual / 83% league avg (regression applied)
Chicago Cubs small sample — offense 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Arizona Diamondbacks small sample — offense 39% actual / 61% league avg (regression applied)

C Los Angeles Angels +1.5 — New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels (Run Line) +16.7%

[OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kevin Herget (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Joey Gerber (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Cesar Rivera (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+24.05/$100
✓ Cover prob 73.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Jack Kochanowicz (RHP) | opp wRC+ 88 vs RHP (favorable)
Away SP: Clay Holmes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Angel Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Jack Kochanowicz small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
Clay Holmes small sample (36 IP) — stats 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)
Los Angeles Angels small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)
New York Mets small sample — offense 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)

C St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals (Run Line) +15.9%

[DTD] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 15 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+23.23/$100
✓ Cover prob 71.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.9% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Dustin May (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Dustin May small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)
Justin Wrobleski small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)
St. Louis Cardinals small sample — offense 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Los Angeles Dodgers small sample — offense 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)

C Colorado Rockies +1.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies (Run Line) +15.7%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Raisel Iglesias (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Dylan Dodd (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+24.31/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.3% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -122 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Spencer Strider (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.32)
Away SP (Spencer Strider) stats unavailable — used league avg
Kyle Freeland small sample (20 IP) — stats 25% actual / 75% league avg (regression applied)
Colorado Rockies small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)
Atlanta Braves small sample — offense 41% actual / 59% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why not play? (8 games below threshold)

Game	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	Aaron Civale / Parker Messick	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	+7.0%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 7.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	Matthew Boyd / Merrill Kelly	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	+10.6%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate)
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	Griffin Canning / Anthony Kay ⚠ Home SP	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-6.3%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -6.3% < 8% required Home SP (Griffin Canning) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate)
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	Luis Castillo / Kris Bubic	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-11.5%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate)
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	Tyler Holton / Jack Leiter	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-16.8%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -16.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate)
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	Jack Kochanowicz / Clay Holmes	3.4 / 7.7	6.6 / 7.7	-10.7%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	Kyle Freeland / Spencer Strider ⚠ Away SP	3.1 / 7.7	6.9 / 7.7	-12.9%	Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -12.9% < 8% required Away SP (Spencer Strider) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Dustin May / Justin Wrobleski	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-12.8%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate)

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR probability + pitcher vulnerability + park/weather + best-book price; No-HR inverse is support/conflict only

HR props parsed: 138 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=138
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed

Batter HR Candidates

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	Implied	Model	Edge	Score
Strong HR Candidate	Josh Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	-	Jack Kochanowicz (R)	espnbet	+600	-	13.3%	42.0%	+28.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	-	Jack Leiter (R)	espnbet	+550	-	14.3%	42.0%	+27.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Spencer Torkelson	Detroit Tigers	Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	-	Jack Leiter (R)	espnbet	+500	-	15.6%	42.0%	+26.4%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Kerry Carpenter	Detroit Tigers	Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	-	Jack Leiter (R)	espnbet	+500	-	15.6%	42.0%	+26.4%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	2	Kyle Freeland (L)	espnbet	+475	-	16.4%	42.0%	+25.6%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Angel Martinez	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	-	Aaron Civale (R)	espnbet	+475	-	16.4%	42.0%	+25.6%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers	Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	-	Jack Leiter (R)	espnbet	+475	-	16.4%	42.0%	+25.6%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	5	Dustin May (R)	espnbet	+425	-	17.9%	42.0%	+24.1%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Dansby Swanson	Chicago Cubs	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	9	Merrill Kelly (R)	espnbet	+425	-	17.9%	42.0%	+24.1%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jorge Soler	Los Angeles Angels	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	4	Clay Holmes (R)	espnbet	+450	-	17.1%	41.1%	+24.0%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	4	Griffin Canning (R)	espnbet	+400	-	18.8%	42.0%	+23.2%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	5	Luis Castillo (R)	espnbet	+400	-	18.8%	42.0%	+23.2%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	-	Tyler Holton (L)	espnbet	+500	-	15.6%	38.3%	+22.7%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	3	Justin Wrobleski (L)	espnbet	+375	-	19.7%	42.0%	+22.3%	100
Elite HR Longshot Edge	Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	2	Aaron Civale (R)	espnbet	+375	-	19.7%	42.0%	+22.3%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Ildemaro Vargas	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	4	Matthew Boyd (L)	espnbet	+500	-	15.6%	37.3%	+21.6%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Ozzie Albies	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	3	Kyle Freeland (L)	espnbet	+450	-	17.1%	37.1%	+20.0%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	2	Clay Holmes (R)	espnbet	+325	-	22.0%	42.0%	+20.0%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Ian Happ	Chicago Cubs	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	4	Merrill Kelly (R)	espnbet	+300	-	23.2%	42.0%	+18.8%	100
Strong HR Candidate	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	2	Griffin Canning (R)	espnbet	+300	-	23.2%	42.0%	+18.8%	100

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	100	99.0%	-9739	Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| Wind 18 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	100	97.4%	-3758	Max Muncy, Jordan Walker, Shohei Ohtani, JJ Wetherholt	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 15 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	100	95.8%	-2266	Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Hunter Goodman, Ozzie Albies	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| Wind 14 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.3%	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	100	95.5%	-2124	Angel Martinez, Chase DeLauter, Shea Langeliers, Jose Ramirez	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 23.6%, P(U1.5) 57.7%
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	100	95.3%	-2009	Carter Jensen, Connor Joe, Salvador Perez, Jac Caglianone	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	100	95.0%	-1911	Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Ildemaro Vargas, Corbin Carroll	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 18 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	100	94.0%	-1559	Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Ramon Laureano, Miguel Vargas	Petco Park HR factor 0.85 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	100	93.2%	-1369	Josh Lowe, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Juan Soto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-

HR Candidate Detail

Strong HR Candidate Josh Lowe — New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels (+600) edge +28.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.276, OPS 0.895, ISO 0.286, TB/G 2.07
Statcast: barrel 13.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/110.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.486
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0066, xFIP 4.46, K% 16.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.338, xERA 4.64, whiff 23.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.064, OPS 1.062, ISO 0.337 (94 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0280
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.336, xwOBA 0.306 (19 PA)
Park HR factor 0.98
Risk: Confirmed lineup but player not listed
Risk: Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Elite HR Longshot Edge Dillon Dingler — Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (+550) edge +27.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.207, OPS 0.825, ISO 0.238, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 17.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.8/107.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.624
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0449, xFIP 3.88, K% 23.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.40, whiff 30.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.065, OPS 0.862, ISO 0.264 (77 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.912, xwOBA 0.552 (11 PA)
Park HR factor 0.91
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.05x
Risk: Team lineup not posted

Elite HR Longshot Edge Spencer Torkelson — Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (+500) edge +26.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.151, OPS 0.773, ISO 0.197, TB/G 1.36
Statcast: barrel 15.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/109.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.489
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0449, xFIP 3.88, K% 23.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.40, whiff 30.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.742, ISO 0.215 (96 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.364, xwOBA 0.360 (13 PA)
Park HR factor 0.91
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.05x
Risk: Team lineup not posted

Elite HR Longshot Edge Kerry Carpenter — Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (+500) edge +26.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.194, OPS 0.783, ISO 0.267, TB/G 1.39
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.410
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0449, xFIP 3.88, K% 23.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.40, whiff 30.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.064, OPS 0.828, ISO 0.297 (94 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.134, xwOBA 0.085 (14 PA)
Park HR factor 0.91
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.05x
Risk: Team lineup not posted

Strong HR Candidate Drake Baldwin — Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies (+475) edge +25.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.235, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.210, TB/G 2.12
Statcast: barrel 15.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/110.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.551
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0230, xFIP 4.19, K% 19.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.321, xERA 4.13, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.973, ISO 0.216 (59 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.483, xwOBA 0.278 (17 PA)
Park HR factor 1.20
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.98x
Risk: Wind 14 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN

Strong HR Candidate Angel Martinez — Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics (+475) edge +25.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.161, OPS 0.786, ISO 0.205, TB/G 1.58
Statcast: barrel 9.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.3/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.435
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0231, xFIP 4.51, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.336, xERA 4.58, whiff 21.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.257 (73 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.591, xwOBA 0.406 (8 PA)
Park HR factor 1.00
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.04x
Risk: Confirmed lineup but player not listed
Risk: Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA)

Elite HR Longshot Edge Riley Greene — Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (+475) edge +25.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.118, OPS 0.860, ISO 0.165, TB/G 1.65
Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/111.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.529
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0449, xFIP 3.88, K% 23.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.40, whiff 30.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.029, OPS 0.825, ISO 0.176 (102 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.550, xwOBA 0.366 (18 PA)
Park HR factor 0.91
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.05x
Risk: Team lineup not posted

Elite HR Longshot Edge Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals (+425) edge +24.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.290, OPS 0.988, ISO 0.299, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 17.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.613
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0231, xFIP 4.17, K% 16.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.319, xERA 4.08, whiff 15.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 0.963, ISO 0.268 (97 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Wind 15 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 1.04x

Avoid / Trap List

Player	Game	Odds	Edge	Why avoid
Michael Busch	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	+300	-19.6%	Weak batter split vs_rhp
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	+325	-16.4%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	+230	-15.7%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| High-whiff arsenal
Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	+350	-14.8%	Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) \| Wind 14 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Moisés Ballesteros	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	+350	-14.1%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Batter Statcast power unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| High-whiff arsenal
Seiya Suzuki	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	+300	-13.8%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| High-whiff arsenal
Marcus Semien	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	+600	-12.0%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Ezequiel Tovar	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	+600	-12.0%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Wind 14 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Brett Baty	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	+600	-11.5%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA)
Andrew Benintendi	Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	+550	-11.0%	Pitcher season stats unavailable

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥56% to play

Game	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	Aaron Civale	Parker Messick	1.00	23.6% PLAY	57.7% PLAY	8.3%	+15.3%
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	Jack Kochanowicz	Clay Holmes	0.98	17.9%	48.8%	6.8%	+11.1%
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	Luis Castillo	Kris Bubic	0.92	16.7%	46.5%	8.5%	+8.2%
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	Tyler Holton	Jack Leiter	0.91	10.7%	34.6%	—	—
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	Griffin Canning	Anthony Kay	0.85	10.3%	33.7%	10.1%	+0.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Dustin May	Justin Wrobleski	0.93	8.4%	29.1%	7.3%	+1.0%
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	Kyle Freeland	Spencer Strider	1.20	8.3%	29.0%	5.0%	+3.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	Matthew Boyd	Merrill Kelly	1.05	6.4%	24.0%	2.7%	+3.7%

No-HR Play Detail

🔬 MODEL Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics — No HR (23.6%) | Under 1.5 HR (57.7%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.444 (raw=1.861, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-0.84)
P(no HR) = 23.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 57.7%
Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Aaron Civale): 0.0231 HR/BF Away SP (Parker Messick): 0.0064 HR/BF
Chase DeLauter: 0.0403 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1734 lambda
Nick Kurtz: 0.0391 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1640 lambda
Brent Rooker: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 8.3% (14 batter lines used) edge = +15.3%

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 2 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Batter HR Candidates

Game HR Environments

HR Candidate Detail

Avoid / Trap List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Play Detail

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes