| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 227W–201L–0P | 53% | -17.18 u | Last 14 days • 428 settled |
| Grade A | 26W–26L–0P | 50% | -6.90 u | |
| Grade B | 201W–175L–0P | 53% | -10.28 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 347W–308L–2P | 53% | -27.04 u | All-time • 657 settled |
| Grade A | 66W–49L–0P | 57% | +0.90 u | |
| Grade B | 281W–259L–2P | 52% | -27.94 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | K Prop | Shota Imanaga | 4.5 | -137 | - | WIN | +0.730 | Shota Imanaga: 5.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-02 | K Prop | Landen Roupp | 4.5 | -135 | - | WIN | +0.741 | Landen Roupp: 6.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-02 | K Prop | Michael King | 5.5 | -122 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Michael King: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-02 | K Prop | Dylan Cease | 6.5 | -133 | - | WIN | +0.752 | Dylan Cease: 7.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-05-02 | Batter H+R+RBI | Oneil Cruz | 1.5 | -124 | - | WIN | +0.806 | Oneil Cruz: 5.0 (line 1.5) |
| 2026-05-02 | Batter H+R+RBI | William Contreras | 1.5 | -131 | - | WIN | +0.763 | William Contreras: 2.0 (line 1.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 552 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 213 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 73 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ⚠ | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ⚠ | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds |
| ✓ | Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 11 game(s) fetched | 11 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins | 12:46 PM | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+149) | +1.5 (-181) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | 1:36 PM | +189 | -232 | +1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-115) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox | 1:36 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+119) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+159) | +1.5 (-193) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | -136 | +113 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | 1:41 PM | -149 | +123 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays | 1:41 PM | +109 | -131 | +1.5 (-199) | -1.5 (+163) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | -149 | +123 | -1.5 (+109) | +1.5 (-131) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs | 2:21 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-131) | -1.5 (+109) | O/U 11.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | -168 | +139 | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) | O/U 10.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+135) | +1.5 (-163) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | -136 | +113 | -1.5 (+123) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres | 4:11 PM | +159 | -193 | +1.5 (-136) | -1.5 (+113) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners | 4:11 PM | +104 | -126 | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+159) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers | 7:21 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+152) | +1.5 (-185) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | RED@PIR | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | -133 | 37.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@PIR | 1:36 PM | 6.5 | -118 | 17.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs | Total | Under 11.5 | -104 | 48.7% | 78.6% | +29.9% | $+54.12 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| B | Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies | Run Line | Colorado Rockies +1.5 | -110 | 50.0% | 68.3% | +18.3% | $+30.42 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Run Line | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | -131 | 54.2% | 71.0% | +16.8% | $+25.23 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels | Run Line | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 | -149 | 57.2% | 73.0% | +15.8% | $+22.00 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Run Line | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | -105 | 48.9% | 64.2% | +15.3% | $+25.40 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (F5) | F5 ML | Baltimore Orioles | +170 | 35.0% | 47.9% | +12.9% | $+29.46 | — | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.
| Game | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Chris Paddack / Jesús Luzardo | 6.2 / 7.7 | 3.8 / 7.7 | +15.4% | Score 6.2 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Braxton Ashcraft / Chase Burns | 6.1 / 7.7 | 3.9 / 7.7 | +11.8% | Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Max Fried / Trey Gibson ⚠ Away SP | 5.3 / 7.7 | 4.7 / 7.7 | +7.9% | Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 7.9% < 8% required Away SP (Trey Gibson) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics | Aaron Civale / Parker Messick | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.8 / 7.7 | +7.2% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs | Matthew Boyd / Merrill Kelly | 5.0 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | +10.0% | Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins | Joe Ryan / Trey Yesavage | 4.6 / 7.7 | 5.4 / 7.7 | -5.5% | Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays | Steven Matz / Tyler Mahle | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -2.0% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres | Griffin Canning / Anthony Kay ⚠ Home SP | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | -3.9% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -3.9% < 8% required Home SP (Griffin Canning) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate) |
| Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners | Luis Castillo / Kris Bubic | 4.0 / 7.7 | 6.0 / 7.7 | -10.6% | Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) |
| Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox | Ranger Suarez / Cody Bolton | 3.8 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -6.8% | Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (9 PA < 30 gate) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Dustin May / Justin Wrobleski | 3.7 / 7.7 | 6.3 / 7.7 | -6.1% | Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels | Jack Kochanowicz / Clay Holmes | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -10.2% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -10.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers | Tyler Holton / Jack Leiter | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -13.9% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -13.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies | Kyle Freeland / Spencer Strider ⚠ Away SP | 3.1 / 7.7 | 6.9 / 7.7 | -12.1% | Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -12.1% < 8% required Away SP (Spencer Strider) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals | Zack Littell / TBD ⚠ Away SP | 3.0 / 7.7 | 7.0 / 7.7 | -16.1% | Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -16.1% < 8% required Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Game | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Dustin May | Justin Wrobleski | 0.93 | 21.5% PLAY | 54.5% | — | — |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Max Fried | Trey Gibson | 1.18 | 19.1% | 50.7% | — | — |
| New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels | Jack Kochanowicz | Clay Holmes | 0.98 | 18.6% | 50.0% | — | — |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics | Aaron Civale | Parker Messick | 1.00 | 18.0% | 48.9% | — | — |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Braxton Ashcraft | Chase Burns | 0.96 | 17.4% | 47.7% | — | — |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins | Joe Ryan | Trey Yesavage | 0.95 | 16.4% | 46.0% | — | — |
| Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox | Ranger Suarez | Cody Bolton | 0.95 | 16.2% | 45.7% | — | — |
| Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners | Luis Castillo | Kris Bubic | 0.92 | 15.7% | 44.8% | — | — |
| Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres | Griffin Canning | Anthony Kay | 0.85 | 15.0% | 43.5% | — | — |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Chris Paddack | Jesús Luzardo | 0.88 | 14.4% | 42.3% | — | — |
| Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers | Tyler Holton | Jack Leiter | 0.91 | 14.2% | 41.9% | — | — |
| Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies | Kyle Freeland | Spencer Strider | 1.20 | 14.2% | 41.9% | — | — |
| San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays | Steven Matz | Tyler Mahle | 0.94 | 12.1% | 37.6% | — | — |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs | Matthew Boyd | Merrill Kelly | 1.05 | 11.0% | 35.3% | — | — |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals | Zack Littell | None | 1.02 | 9.5% | 31.8% | — | — |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.