MLB Bets 2026-05-02

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	194W–182L–0P	52%	-25.20 u	Last 14 days • 376 settled
Grade A	21W–25L–0P	46%	-9.69 u
Grade B	173W–157L–0P	52%	-15.51 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	312W–283L–2P	52%	-30.53 u	All-time • 597 settled
Grade A	61W–48L–0P	56%	-1.89 u
Grade B	251W–235L–2P	52%	-28.64 u

52 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-01	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	6.5	-154	-	WIN	+0.649	Jacob Misiorowski: 8.0 (line 6.5)
2026-05-01	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore	5.5	-148	-	LOSS	-1.000	MacKenzie Gore: 3.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-01	K Prop	Grant Holmes	4.5	-135	-	LOSS	-1.000	Grant Holmes: 4.0 (line 4.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 549 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 213 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 71 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 10 team(s), 90 player(s)
✓	Umpires confirmed: 7 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners
✓	Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 6 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	4:05 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	4:06 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+129)	+1.5 (-156)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	7:16 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	8:11 PM	-226	+184	-1.5 (-136)	+1.5 (+113)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	+153	-186	+1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

7 Grade A  |  38 Grade B  |  420 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 7 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	JAY@TWI	2:11 PM	6.5	-133	53.6%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	DIA@CUB	2:21 PM	4.5	-161	51.6%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Landen Roupp Over	GIA@RAY	6:11 PM	4.5	-141	36.8%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Michael King Over	SOX@PAD	8:41 PM	5.5	-114	23.9%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice Over	ORI@YAN	1:36 PM	1.5	-158	91.9%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Oneil Cruz Over	RED@PIR	4:05 PM	1.5	-124	77.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	William Contreras Over	BRE@NAT	4:06 PM	1.5	-131	73.9%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 6.5 (-133) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 53.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +3.48K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Dylan Cease: K/9 11.5, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 38.1% | put-away% 24.9% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Changeup (63% whiff, 11% usage)
Umpire: Tom Hanahan — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.17 | Season Avg 8.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 6.5

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 (-161) diff 51.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 51.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.32K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (6 books): 5/6 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.33)
Shota Imanaga: K/9 9.3, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 17% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.33 | Season Avg 6.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 4.5

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 4.5 (-141) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 36.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.66K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Landen Roupp: K/9 9.1, proj 6.2K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 25.4% | xwOBA 0.253 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 29% usage)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.17 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: K L10: 5/6 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Michael King Over 5.5 (-114) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.31K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Michael King: K/9 8.8, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (40% whiff, 19% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.67 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 5.5

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-158) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.81
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/31 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-124) diff 77.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.65
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-131) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (38 play(s))

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Max Meyer Over 4.5 (-155) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 58.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.4% / under 42.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.62K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 3/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Max Meyer: K/9 9.5, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (47% whiff, 27% usage)
Umpire: Carlos Torres — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 37.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/6 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-156) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

Checks: ✓!✓✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.99K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.14)
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.2, proj 5.5K over 5.6 IP (avg/start)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 14% usage)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 4.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Under 18.5 (-167) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.379 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 3.92)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus (4 books): 2/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 101)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/6 under 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Under 18.5 (-175) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.565999999999999 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 15.9% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 4.04)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: +0.4 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 88)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.83 | Season Avg 16.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/6 under 18.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Seth Lugo Under 17.5 (+114) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.245 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.9% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 4.07)
DK books agree: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 98)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/6 (17%) | L20 1/6 (17%) | Season 1/6 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.83 | Season Avg 18.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/6 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Emerson Hancock Under 17.5 (-119) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.521 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.2 (xFIP 3.89)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.33 | Season Avg 17.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/6 under 17.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Landen Roupp Under 17.5 (+103) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 15.672 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.4% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.2 (xFIP 3.82)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 98)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.67 | Season Avg 17.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/6 under 17.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 (-161) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 3.9099999999999997 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 28.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 (WHIP 1.21, BB% 9.2%)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 92)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/3 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Max Meyer Under 5.5 (-169) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 4.1575 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 24.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 (WHIP 1.24, BB% 8.7%)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 94)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 (-157) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 4.3825 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 (WHIP 1.17, BB% 6.8%)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/6 under 5.5

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kumar Rocker Under 5.5 (-171) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 4.760000000000001 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 (WHIP 1.32, BB% 8.6%)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/5 under 5.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-130) diff 105.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 3.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 105.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.81
Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/31 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-138) diff 99.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 3.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 99.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.85
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/33 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-135) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-120) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/32 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-110) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓✓!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/32 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-115) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-141) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.53
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/32 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-120) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Checks: ✓✓!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.53
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 1/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-122) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/32 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-153) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 23/31 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-153) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

Checks: !!✓✓!✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/31 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-118) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-149) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/32 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-146) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/33 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-126) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-125) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

Checks: ✓!!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-113) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-118) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/33 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-134) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/32 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-153) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/32 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-122) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/31 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-118) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.379 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/32 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-124) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

B GOOD ADD Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-130) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

Checks: !✓✓✓✓✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (5 books): 3/5 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/31 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓––––✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.548 (raw=2.246, park_adj=-0.040, SP_z=-1.47)
P(no HR) = 21.3% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.2%
Park HR factor: 0.96 Temp: 44 F Wind-out: -5.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Carmen Mlodzinski): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Rhett Lowder): 0.0068 HR/BF
Oneil Cruz: 0.0726 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.3266 lambda
Brandon Lowe: 0.0714 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.3071 lambda
Cincinnati Reds Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — Chicago White Sox (+150) edge 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres (F5)

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

[INJ] Tyler Gilbert (Chicago White Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Michael King xFIP 4.22
Sean Burke xFIP 4.17
Home SP: Michael King (RHP)
Away SP: Sean Burke (RHP)

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day | [INJ] Tyler Gilbert (Chicago White Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — Cleveland Guardians (+120) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics (F5)

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jacob Lopez xFIP 4.91
Slade Cecconi xFIP 4.43
Home SP: Jacob Lopez (LHP)
Away SP: Slade Cecconi (RHP)

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [INJ] Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors | [INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	Run Line	Colorado Rockies +1.5	+113	44.9%	69.4%	+24.5%	$+47.79	9	Bet on DK
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	Total	Over 7.5	+102	47.4%	70.6%	+23.2%	$+42.57	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))

C Colorado Rockies +1.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies (Run Line) +24.5%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Raisel Iglesias (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Dylan Dodd (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+47.79/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 24.5% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds +113 within price guard (-160 floor)
EV decision: +1.5 $+47.79 > ML $+41.66 — selecting +1.5
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.32)
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Chris Sale small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
Colorado Rockies small sample — offense 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)
Atlanta Braves small sample — offense 40% actual / 60% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +23.2%

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Luke Craig (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 7.5 [April dampening ×0.98]
Home SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Ryne Nelson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Shota Imanaga small sample (34 IP) — stats 42% actual / 58% league avg (regression applied)
Ryne Nelson small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)
Chicago Cubs small sample — offense 39% actual / 61% league avg (regression applied)
Arizona Diamondbacks small sample — offense 38% actual / 62% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	+165	35.6%	48.8%	+13.2%	$+29.24	—	Bet on DK
B	Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres (F5)	F5 ML	Chicago White Sox	+150	37.7%	49.6%	+11.9%	$+24.10	—	Bet on DK
B	Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics (F5)	F5 ML	Cleveland Guardians	+120	42.8%	51.9%	+9.1%	$+14.21	—	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (3 play(s))

C Colorado Rockies — Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 ML) +13.2%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Raisel Iglesias (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Dylan Dodd (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Chris Sale xFIP 3.92
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

B Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 ML) +11.9%

[INJ] Tyler Gilbert (Chicago White Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Michael King xFIP 4.22
Sean Burke xFIP 4.17
Home SP: Michael King (RHP)
Away SP: Sean Burke (RHP)

B Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics (F5) (F5 ML) +9.1%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jacob Lopez xFIP 4.91
Slade Cecconi xFIP 4.43
Home SP: Jacob Lopez (LHP)
Away SP: Slade Cecconi (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why not play? (15 games below threshold)

Game	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins	Connor Prielipp / Dylan Cease	6.7 / 7.7	3.3 / 7.7	+20.4%	Score 6.7 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays	Griffin Jax / Landen Roupp	6.1 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+12.9%	Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (3 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate)
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	Reid Detmers / Nolan McLean	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+8.5%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	Michael King / Sean Burke	5.1 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	+2.0%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (18 PA < 30 gate)
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox	Connelly Early / Spencer Arrighetti	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	+2.9%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (14 PA < 30 gate)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals	Foster Griffin / Kyle Harrison	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	-5.1%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	Shota Imanaga / Ryne Nelson	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-12.2%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate)
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	Emerson Hancock / Seth Lugo	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-9.9%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	Max Meyer / Andrew Painter	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-8.2%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (16 PA < 30 gate)
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	Keider Montero / Kumar Rocker	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-8.7%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	TBD / Chris Sale ⚠ Home SP	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-5.8%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -5.8% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Carmen Mlodzinski / Rhett Lowder	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-14.1%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (16 PA < 30 gate)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Michael McGreevy / Roki Sasaki	3.1 / 7.7	6.9 / 7.7	-14.0%	Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate)
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	Ryan Weathers / Kyle Bradish	3.0 / 7.7	7.0 / 7.7	-17.7%	Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -17.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate)
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	Jacob Lopez / Slade Cecconi	2.7 / 7.7	7.3 / 7.7	-13.7%	Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -13.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥48% to play

Game	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	Max Meyer	Andrew Painter	0.88	23.1% PLAY	56.9% PLAY	—	—
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox	Connelly Early	Spencer Arrighetti	0.95	22.6% PLAY	56.2% PLAY	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Carmen Mlodzinski	Rhett Lowder	0.96	21.3% PLAY	54.2% PLAY	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers	Keider Montero	Kumar Rocker	0.91	18.1%	49.0% PLAY	—	—
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres	Michael King	Sean Burke	0.85	17.7%	48.3% PLAY	—	—
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	Reid Detmers	Nolan McLean	0.98	17.6%	48.2% PLAY	—	—
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins	Connor Prielipp	Dylan Cease	0.95	16.1%	45.4%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners	Emerson Hancock	Seth Lugo	0.92	15.8%	45.0%	—	—
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals	Foster Griffin	Kyle Harrison	1.02	15.0%	43.4%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays	Griffin Jax	Landen Roupp	0.94	14.1%	41.7%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies	None	Chris Sale	1.20	13.3%	40.1%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals	Michael McGreevy	Roki Sasaki	0.93	10.8%	34.9%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics	Jacob Lopez	Slade Cecconi	1.00	10.8%	34.8%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs	Shota Imanaga	Ryne Nelson	1.05	8.6%	29.7%	—	—
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees	Ryan Weathers	Kyle Bradish	1.18	5.4%	21.1%	—	—

No-HR Play Detail

🔬 MODEL Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates — No HR (21.3%) | Under 1.5 HR (54.2%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.548 (raw=2.246, park_adj=-0.040, SP_z=-1.47)
P(no HR) = 21.3% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.2%
Park HR factor: 0.96 Temp: 44 F Wind-out: -5.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Carmen Mlodzinski): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Rhett Lowder): 0.0068 HR/BF
Oneil Cruz: 0.0726 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.3266 lambda
Brandon Lowe: 0.0714 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.3071 lambda
Cincinnati Reds Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox — No HR (22.6%) | Under 1.5 HR (56.2%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.487 (raw=1.842, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=-0.48)
P(no HR) = 22.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.2%
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Connelly Early): 0.0298 HR/BF Away SP (Spencer Arrighetti): 0.0129 HR/BF
Willson Contreras: 0.0565 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.2427 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins — No HR (23.1%) | Under 1.5 HR (56.9%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.465 (raw=1.887, park_adj=-0.120, SP_z=-0.70)
P(no HR) = 23.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.9%
Park HR factor: 0.88 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Max Meyer): 0.0155 HR/BF Away SP (Andrew Painter): 0.0194 HR/BF
Liam Hicks: 0.0583 HR/PA x 3.8 PA = 0.2216 lambda
Philadelphia Phillies Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Philadelphia Phillies Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers — Under 1.5 HR (49.0%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.711 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.090, SP_z=-0.69)
P(no HR) = 18.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 49.0%
Park HR factor: 0.91 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Keider Montero): 0.0172 HR/BF Away SP (Kumar Rocker): 0.0178 HR/BF
Texas Rangers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Detroit Tigers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Texas Rangers Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres — Under 1.5 HR (48.3%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.732 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.50)
P(no HR) = 17.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 48.3%
Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Michael King): 0.0210 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Burke): 0.0210 HR/BF
Chicago White Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chicago White Sox Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels — Under 1.5 HR (48.2%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.737 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.020, SP_z=-0.71)
P(no HR) = 17.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 48.2%
Park HR factor: 0.98 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Reid Detmers): 0.0210 HR/BF Away SP (Nolan McLean): 0.0133 HR/BF
New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Angels Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 7 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Play Detail

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes