MLB Bets 2026-04-30

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	165W–153L–0P	52%	-19.27 u	Last 14 days • 318 settled
Grade A	19W–22L–0P	46%	-8.15 u
Grade B	146W–131L–0P	53%	-11.13 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	271W–242L–2P	53%	-22.43 u	All-time • 515 settled
Grade A	57W–43L–0P	57%	+0.21 u
Grade B	214W–199L–2P	52%	-22.64 u

37 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-04-29	K Prop	JR Ritchie	4.5	-129	-	LOSS	-1.000	JR Ritchie: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-04-29	K Prop	Gavin Williams	5.5	-126	-	WIN	+0.794	Gavin Williams: 9.0 (line 5.5)
2026-04-29	Pitcher Outs	Taj Bradley	17.5	-143	-	LOSS	-1.000	Taj Bradley: 21.0 (line 17.5)
2026-04-29	K Prop	David Peterson	4.5	-146	-	WIN	+0.685	David Peterson: 5.0 (line 4.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 539 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 210 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 66 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Handedness: 20 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 12 team(s), 108 player(s)
✓	Umpires confirmed: 6 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 18 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers
✓	Bullpen data: 18 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
⚠	F5: 10 game(s) fetched \| 10 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 3 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves	12:16 PM	+109	-131	-1.5 (+161)	+1.5 (-196)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	+102	-122	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	12:36 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	12:36 PM	+179	-219	+1.5 (-122)	-1.5 (+102)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds	12:41 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	1:11 PM	+159	-194	+1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers	1:41 PM	+104	-126	-1.5 (+166)	+1.5 (-203)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics	3:06 PM	+104	-126	-1.5 (+152)	+1.5 (-185)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles	3:46 PM	+109	-132	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	5:36 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+129)	+1.5 (-156)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

6 Grade A  |  31 Grade B  |  257 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 6 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A ⭐ TOP PICK	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin Over	TIG@BRA	12:16 PM	1.5	-139	102.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Freddy Peralta Over	NAT@MET	1:11 PM	5.5	-128	27.0%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Olson Over	TIG@BRA	12:16 PM	1.5	-126	97.9%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Oneil Cruz Over	CAR@PIR	12:36 PM	1.5	-127	79.3%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Ozzie Albies Over	TIG@BRA	12:16 PM	1.5	-146	72.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Hunter Goodman Over	ROC@RED	12:41 PM	1.5	-116	66.8%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

⭐ TOP PICKS — 100% book consensus (all books agree) + projection 1.5+ over the line

A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-139) diff 102.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 3.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 102.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.03
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (-128) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 27.0% vs 17% min [April: raised to 17%]): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.49K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta -0.14)
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 7.0K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-126) diff 97.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-127) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.69
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-146) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-116) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (31 play(s))

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (-120) diff 106.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (6)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 106.8% vs 17% min [April: raised to 17%]): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +4.81K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (7 books): 4/7 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.29)
Peter Lambert: K/9 10.5, proj 9.3K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)

⚠ ⚠ High K diff 107% (≥90%) — verify K projection

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (-111) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.9% vs 17% min [April: raised to 17%]): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.37K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (6 books): 4/6 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.17)
Kevin Gausman: K/9 8.9, proj 6.9K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 98 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: -11% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: SUPPRESSED run environment (0.89x) — headwind for Over

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (-128) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓!✓✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min [April: raised to 17%]): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.78K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Bryce Elder: K/9 8.0, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-122) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Athletics

Checks: ✓!✓✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min [April: raised to 17%]): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.74K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (7 books): 6/7 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.29)
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.2, proj 5.2K over 5.5 IP (avg/start)

B GOOD ADD K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (+121) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓!!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.7% vs 17% min [April: raised to 17%]): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.62K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (7 books): 5/7 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.14)
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.1, proj 3.9K over 5.1 IP (avg/start)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 18.5 (-189) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 15.397 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 16.8% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 3.92)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.8% / under 61.2%)
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 100)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (+111) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 14.597000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.6% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.0 (xFIP 4.27)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.3 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 110)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Andrew Abbott Under 17.5 (-112) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 14.678999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.1% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 4.9 (xFIP 4.41)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 101)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Bailey Ober Under 17.5 (+104) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 15.02 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.2% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.0 (xFIP 4.26)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Bryce Elder Under 17.5 (-120) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 15.222000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.0% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 4.00)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus (4 books): 3/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 103)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Freddy Peralta Under 17.5 (+108) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 15.297 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.6% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.1 (xFIP 4.00)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 100)

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+106) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓!!✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 15.957 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: adj IP 5.3 (xFIP 3.59)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus (4 books): 4/4 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 98)

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-121) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-135) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-147) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-119) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.53
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-115) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-136) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-117) diff 51.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-110) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-126) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

Checks: ✓!✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-146) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓!✓!✓! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -11% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: SUPPRESSED run environment (0.89x) — headwind for Over

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-118) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-105) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Correa Over 1.5 (-151) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

Checks: ✓!!–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter H+R+RBI — Maikel Garcia Over 1.5 (-163) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Athletics

Checks: ✓!✓–✓– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE

B GOOD ADD Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-119) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Athletics

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (5 books): 3/5 OVER -- DK LOWER

B GOOD ADD 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Checks: ✓––✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.442 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=-0.50)
P(no HR) = 23.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 57.8%
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 41 F Wind-out: -7.8 mph-eq
Home SP (Bailey Ober): 0.0218 HR/BF Away SP (Kevin Gausman): 0.0199 HR/BF
Toronto Blue Jays Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — St. Louis Cardinals (+200) edge 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (F5)

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
PNC Park (NEUTRAL)
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.92

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+140) edge 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

[OUT] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Javi Rivera (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Andrew Abbott xFIP 4.41
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.21

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [DTD] Javi Rivera (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+160) edge 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (F5)

Checks: –✓–✓!! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

[DTD] Camilo Sanchez (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kevin Herget (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Joey Gerber (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [OUT] Kevin Herget (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [IL] Joey Gerber (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day | [OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day | [DTD] Camilo Sanchez (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day | [INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	Total	Over 7.0	-105	48.9%	74.0%	+25.1%	$+44.42	8	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	Total	Over 7.0	-112	50.4%	74.0%	+23.5%	$+40.02	9	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Total	Over 7.0	-108	49.6%	69.3%	+19.7%	$+33.38	9	Bet on DK
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers	Total	Over 7.5	-115	51.1%	66.5%	+15.5%	$+24.39	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (Total) +25.1%

[OUT] Naoel Mejia (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Jhoan Duran (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.0 [April dampening ×0.98]
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Philadelphia Phillies small sample — offense 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)
San Francisco Giants small sample — offense 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (Total) +23.5%

[OUT] Naoel Mejia (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Jhoan Duran (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.0 [April dampening ×0.98]
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Philadelphia Phillies small sample — offense 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)
San Francisco Giants small sample — offense 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Total) +19.7%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.0 [April dampening ×0.98]
Home SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs RHP (neutral)
PNC Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Away SP (Hunter Dobbins) stats unavailable — used league avg
Paul Skenes small sample (29 IP) — stats 36% actual / 64% league avg (regression applied)
Pittsburgh Pirates small sample — offense 38% actual / 62% league avg (regression applied)
St. Louis Cardinals small sample — offense 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +15.5%

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Luke Craig (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Griffin Tobias (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Carlos Rodriguez (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5 [April dampening ×0.98]
Home SP: Brandon Woodruff (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Soroka (RHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs RHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Brandon Woodruff small sample (28 IP) — stats 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)
Michael Soroka small sample (27 IP) — stats 34% actual / 66% league avg (regression applied)
Milwaukee Brewers small sample — offense 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)
Arizona Diamondbacks small sample — offense 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (F5)	F5 ML	St. Louis Cardinals	+200	31.4%	47.7%	+16.3%	$+43.09	—	Bet on DK
B	Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	+140	39.3%	50.6%	+11.2%	$+21.35	—	Bet on DK
B	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (F5)	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	+160	36.2%	47.2%	+11.0%	$+22.70	—	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	+130	41.1%	49.2%	+8.2%	$+13.19	—	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

B St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (F5) (F5 ML) +16.3%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
PNC Park (NEUTRAL)
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.92
Away SP TBD
Home SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)
Away SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP)

B Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 ML) +11.2%

[OUT] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Javi Rivera (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Andrew Abbott xFIP 4.41
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.21
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)

B Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (F5) (F5 ML) +11.0%

[DTD] Camilo Sanchez (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kevin Herget (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Joey Gerber (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Freddy Peralta xFIP 4.00
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.43
Home SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +8.2%

[OUT] Naoel Mejia (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Lazar (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Jhoan Duran (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Alan Rangel (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Away SP TBD

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

Game	Away SP	Home SP	NRFI Score	Play
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds	Michael Lorenzen	Andrew Abbott	2.3/10	YRFI	Bet on DK

NRFI/YRFI Play Detail

PLAY — YRFI Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds — Score 7.7/10

Andrew Abbott: xFIP 4.41, K% 17.6%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 22.0% | 1st inn (34 PA): xwOBA 0.387, K% 17.6%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 18.3%
Michael Lorenzen: xFIP 4.21, K% 17.3%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.367, whiff% 21.4%
Cincinnati Reds lineup: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 99)
Colorado Rockies offense wRC+ 100
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Andrew Abbott: 50% (6 starts) | Michael Lorenzen: 83% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 16-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 9-game YRFI (-0.2)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -20.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +29.4%

▼ Why not play? (10 games below threshold)

Game	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins	Bailey Ober / Kevin Gausman	6.2 / 7.7	3.8 / 7.7	+12.9%	Score 6.2 < 7.7 threshold Home SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (21 PA < 30 gate)
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Paul Skenes / Hunter Dobbins ⚠ Away SP	5.3 / 7.7	4.7 / 7.7	+0.2%	Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge 0.2% < 8% required Away SP (Hunter Dobbins) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	TBD / TBD ⚠ Home SP ⚠ Away SP	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	-7.5%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -7.5% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	TBD / TBD ⚠ Home SP ⚠ Away SP	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	-3.2%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -3.2% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate)
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics	Jeffrey Springs / Noah Cameron	4.5 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	+2.2%	Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers	Brandon Woodruff / Michael Soroka	4.4 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	-7.7%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (19 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate)
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	Freddy Peralta / Miles Mikolas	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-15.7%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -15.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (13 PA < 30 gate)
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves	Bryce Elder / Framber Valdez	3.1 / 7.7	6.9 / 7.7	-17.4%	Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -17.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate)
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles	Brandon Young / Lance McCullers Jr.	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-20.5%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (7 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate)
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles	Brandon Young / Lance McCullers Jr.	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-21.0%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -21.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (7 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥48% to play

Game	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins	Bailey Ober	Kevin Gausman	0.95	23.7% PLAY	57.8% PLAY	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	Cristopher Sánchez	Logan Webb	1.10	19.5%	51.4% PLAY	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies	Cristopher Sánchez	Logan Webb	1.10	19.5%	51.4% PLAY	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers	Brandon Woodruff	Michael Soroka	1.08	15.1%	43.6%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics	Jeffrey Springs	Noah Cameron	1.00	12.9%	39.3%	—	—
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves	Bryce Elder	Framber Valdez	1.03	11.7%	36.9%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	Freddy Peralta	Miles Mikolas	0.93	11.0%	35.4%	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Paul Skenes	Hunter Dobbins	0.96	9.5%	31.8%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles	Chris Bassitt	Peter Lambert	1.00	8.6%	29.6%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles	Chris Bassitt	Peter Lambert	1.00	8.6%	29.6%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds	Andrew Abbott	Michael Lorenzen	1.15	8.5%	29.5%	—	—

No-HR Play Detail

🔬 MODEL San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies — Under 1.5 HR (51.4%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.635 (raw=1.979, park_adj=+0.100, SP_z=-0.54)
P(no HR) = 19.5% P(under 1.5 HR) = 51.4%
Park HR factor: 1.10 Temp: 55 F Wind-out: 1.1 mph-eq
Home SP (Cristopher Sánchez): 0.0280 HR/BF Away SP (Logan Webb): 0.0126 HR/BF
Kyle Schwarber: 0.0776 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.3336 lambda
Bryce Harper: 0.0517 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.2172 lambda
Casey Schmitt: 0.0435 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1739 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies — Under 1.5 HR (51.4%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.635 (raw=1.979, park_adj=+0.100, SP_z=-0.54)
P(no HR) = 19.5% P(under 1.5 HR) = 51.4%
Park HR factor: 1.10 Temp: 55 F Wind-out: 1.1 mph-eq
Home SP (Cristopher Sánchez): 0.0280 HR/BF Away SP (Logan Webb): 0.0126 HR/BF
Kyle Schwarber: 0.0776 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.3336 lambda
Bryce Harper: 0.0517 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.2172 lambda
Casey Schmitt: 0.0435 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1739 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins — No HR (23.7%) | Under 1.5 HR (57.8%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.442 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=-0.50)
P(no HR) = 23.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 57.8%
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 41 F Wind-out: -7.8 mph-eq
Home SP (Bailey Ober): 0.0218 HR/BF Away SP (Kevin Gausman): 0.0199 HR/BF
Toronto Blue Jays Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Minnesota Twins Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Toronto Blue Jays Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 6 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

NRFI/YRFI Play Detail

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Play Detail

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes