MLB Bets 2026-04-25

RECENT PERFORMANCE (last 14 days)

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

	Record	Win rate	P&L
Overall	140W – 129L – 1P	52%	-17.12 units	Last 14 days • 269 settled
Grade A	32W – 23L – 0P	58%	+0.20 units
Grade B	108W – 106L – 1P	50%	-17.33 units

1 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-04-24	K Prop	Yusei Kikuchi	4.5	-142	-	WIN	+0.704	Yusei Kikuchi: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-04-24	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen	4.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Drew Rasmussen: 6.0 (line 4.5)
2026-04-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Sal Stewart	1.5	-125	-	LOSS	-1.000	Sal Stewart: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-04-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Elly De La Cruz	1.5	-126	-	WIN	+0.794	Elly De La Cruz: 3.0 (line 1.5)

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

⚠	Savant metrics unavailable (early season or API issue) — using FanGraphs only
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 52 team×pitch-type combinations
⚠	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: not yet available (early season — using full-season wRC+)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 21 team(s), 189 player(s)
✓	Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Athletics
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds
✓	Weather: 4 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 1 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	No-HR model: 2 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+146)	+1.5 (-178)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox	4:11 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	6:06 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-154)	O/U 16.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Texas Rangers	7:06 PM	+109	-132	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals	7:11 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+104	-126	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-193)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:16 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds	7:16 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

9 Grade A  |  30 Grade B  |  312 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 9 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	K Prop	Noah Schultz Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	4.5	-140	30.9%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Eury Perez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	4.5	-146	28.5%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A ⭐ TOP PICK	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-154	100.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-123	80.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Elly De La Cruz Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-126	76.9%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Sal Stewart Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-148	74.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-147	70.7%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-130	68.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Nathaniel Lowe Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-116	66.7%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

Full Audit — All Candidates

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A	K Prop	Noah Schultz Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	4.5	-140	30.9%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	K Prop	Eury Perez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	4.5	-146	28.5%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A ⭐ TOP PICK	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-154	100.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-123	80.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Elly De La Cruz Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-126	76.9%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Sal Stewart Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-148	74.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-147	70.7%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-130	68.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
A	Batter H+R+RBI	Nathaniel Lowe Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-116	66.7%	✓✓✓–✓–	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	K Prop	Colin Rea Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	4.5	+119	40.1%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	K Prop	Bryce Elder Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	4.5	-107	27.0%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	K Prop	Jeffrey Springs Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	4.5	-144	20.0%	✓!✓✓–✓	GOOD ADD
B	K Prop	Jack Flaherty Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	5.5	-136	11.9%	✓!✓✓––	GOOD ADD
B	Pitcher Outs	Robbie Ray Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	17.5	+119	14.7%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	Pitcher Hits All	German Marquez Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	6.5	-102	26.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	Pitcher Hits All	Walbert Urena Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	5.5	-139	16.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-130	107.4%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Olson Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-117	85.2%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-155	84.0%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Nico Hoerner Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-141	82.0%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-126	76.8%	✓✓✓!–!	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Munetaka Murakami Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-130	61.5%	✓!✓–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Kevin McGonigle Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-150	59.0%	✓!✓–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Junior Caminero Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-153	57.3%	✓!!–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Xavier Edwards Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-129	56.4%	✓!!–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Daylen Lile Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+103	56.4%	✓!!–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Riley Greene Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-138	55.5%	✓!✓–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Manny Machado Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	3.5	-146	53.6%	✓✓!–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Carlos Correa Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-133	52.8%	✓!✓–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Jonathan Aranda Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-127	52.0%	✓!✓–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Fernando Tatis Jr. Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	3.5	-132	49.7%	✓!!–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	William Contreras Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-124	47.8%	✓!✓!✓!	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Dillon Dingler Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-141	44.9%	✓!✓–✓–	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Corey Seager Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-137	44.0%	✓!✓✓✓✓	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Cody Bellinger Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-148	44.0%	✓!✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Nimmo Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-138	43.6%	✓!✓✓✓✓	GOOD ADD
B 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL	No HR	Under 1.5 HR (Game)	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-110	11.3%	✓––✓–✓	GOOD ADD
B	F5 ML	Los Angeles Angels	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	-	+130	+10.5%	–✓–✓!!	GOOD ADD
B	Run Line	Houston Astros +1.5	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	-	-126	+15.4%	–✓–✓!✓	GOOD ADD
► PASSES
C	K Prop	Ryan Weathers Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	4.5	-159	46.2%	✓✓✗✓––	PASS
C	K Prop	Jake Irvin Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	4.5	+111	32.9%	✓✓✗✓––	PASS
C	K Prop	Shane McClanahan Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	4.5	-142	27.6%	✓✓✗✓––	PASS
C	K Prop	Roki Sasaki Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	4.5	+108	24.9%	✓✓✗✓––	PASS
D	K Prop	Cole Ragans Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	6.5	-123	10.3%	✓✗✗✓––	PASS
D	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski Under	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	7.5	-128	7.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	PASS
D	K Prop	Mitch Keller Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	4.5	-106	7.8%	✓✗!!–!	PASS
D	K Prop	Robbie Ray Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	5.5	-147	7.5%	✓✗✓✓––	PASS
D	K Prop	Brady Singer Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	4.5	-150	5.9%	✓✗✓✓––	PASS
D	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	5.5	+120	3.0%	✓✗✗✓––	PASS
D	K Prop	Mike Burrows Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	5.5	-158	2.5%	✓✗✗✓––	PASS
D	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore Under	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	6.5	+108	0.8%	✓✗!!–!	PASS
C	Pitcher Outs	Bailey Ober Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	17.5	-139	14.3%	✓✓✗–––	PASS
C	Pitcher Outs	MacKenzie Gore Under	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	17.5	-124	11.3%	✓✓✗!–!	PASS
C	Pitcher Hits All	Zac Gallen Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	6.5	-108	23.6%	✓✓✗–––	PASS
C	Pitcher Hits All	Bailey Ober Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	5.5	-127	16.4%	✓✓✗–––	PASS
D	Pitcher Hits All	Colin Rea Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	5.5	-160	11.8%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Pitcher Hits All	Ryan Weathers Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	5.5	-134	10.5%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Pitcher Hits All	Brady Singer Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	5.5	-147	2.8%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Jake Cronenworth Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-215	63.9%	✓!!–!–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Manny Machado Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-128	55.5%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Gavin Sheets Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-165	50.7%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Ildemaro Vargas Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-198	49.3%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Jackson Merrill Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-125	46.7%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Adrian Del Castillo Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-187	43.4%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-161	43.4%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Alek Thomas Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-235	43.4%	✓!✗–!–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Freddy Fermin Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-203	43.4%	✓!✗–!–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Jose Fernandez Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-232	43.4%	✓!✗–!–	PASS
C	Batter Hits	Ty France Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-160	43.4%	✓!✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Dillon Dingler Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-274	42.0%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Geraldo Perdomo Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-154	41.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Shohei Ohtani Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-214	41.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Fernando Tatis Jr. Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-124	38.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Trea Turner Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-236	38.5%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Nolan Arenado Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-208	36.2%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Ketel Marte Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-133	36.1%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Corbin Carroll Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-143	30.4%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Ramon Laureano Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-116	30.4%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Bobby Witt Jr. Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-217	28.2%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Xander Bogaerts Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-135	27.8%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Freddie Freeman Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-259	25.0%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Kevin McGonigle Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-255	20.5%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Nico Hoerner Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-251	17.9%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Luis Arraez Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-251	17.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Chandler Simpson Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-251	17.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Otto Lopez Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-254	14.7%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Yordan Alvarez Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-255	13.6%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Hits	Yandy Diaz Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-255	12.0%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Oneil Cruz Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+103	84.6%	✓✓✗!✓!	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Yainer Diaz Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+105	70.7%	✓✓✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Lowe Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+112	66.7%	✓✓✗!✓!	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Andy Pages Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+102	66.7%	!✓✗–!–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Shea Langeliers Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-113	65.3%	✓!✗✓✓✓	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Mike Trout Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-113	64.1%	✓!✗–––	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Ozzie Albies Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-111	60.5%	✓!!–––	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Ryan O'Hearn Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+114	58.3%	✓!✗!–!	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Dansby Swanson Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+120	56.4%	✓!✗–––	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Ian Happ Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-105	55.5%	✓!✗–––	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Michael Harris II Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-119	52.0%	!!✓–!–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Cronenworth Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-132	51.7%	✓✓✗–!–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Josh Bell Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-102	49.3%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Max Muncy Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-110	49.3%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Christian Walker Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-112	48.1%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Jorge Soler Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	+103	44.9%	✓!✗–––	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Merrill Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	3.5	-147	42.9%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter H+R+RBI	Ketel Marte Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	3.5	-123	42.9%	✓!✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Marsh Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+108	42.0%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Mauricio Dubon Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+114	41.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Tucker Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-114	41.3%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryan Reynolds Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+110	41.0%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jo Adell Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-122	40.7%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-104	39.5%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Adrian Del Castillo Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-107	39.5%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ty France Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-118	39.5%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Alek Thomas Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-137	39.5%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Freddy Fermin Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-136	39.5%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jose Fernandez Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-146	39.5%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Gavin Sheets Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	+101	39.1%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Freddie Freeman Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-152	38.9%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jacob Wilson Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-128	38.7%	!✗✓✓!✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Chapman Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+102	38.5%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jose Altuve Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-123	38.5%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Zach Neto Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-121	38.3%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Geraldo Perdomo Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-101	36.7%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Josh Jung Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-107	36.2%	✓✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Bauers Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-112	36.2%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Miguel Vargas Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-117	36.0%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Tyler Soderstrom Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-101	35.9%	✓✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Burger Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-117	35.9%	✓✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Bobby Witt Jr. Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	2.5	-165	33.9%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Heriberto Hernandez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+112	33.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Byron Buxton Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-126	33.3%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Chandler Simpson Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-137	33.3%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Kurtz Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	-101	33.3%	✓✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nolan Schanuel Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	+109	33.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryce Harper Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-127	33.3%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Teoscar Hernandez Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-109	33.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ramon Laureano Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	3.5	-136	32.9%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Austin Riley Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-104	30.9%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Colson Montgomery Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-114	30.8%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Arraez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-128	30.7%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Carter Jensen Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-133	30.6%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Gonzales Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-101	30.4%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Corbin Carroll Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	3.5	-123	28.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	TJ Friedl Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-117	27.8%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Heliot Ramos Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+113	25.3%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Salvador Perez Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	+103	25.3%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Wenceel Perez Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-151	25.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Garrett Mitchell Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+118	24.6%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Shohei Ohtani Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	2.5	-115	24.6%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ezequiel Duran Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+120	24.2%	✓✗!✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Trea Turner Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-142	23.1%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Schwarber Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-121	23.1%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Brooks Lee Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+123	22.2%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Alex Bregman Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-119	20.5%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Pete Crow-Armstrong Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+109	20.5%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Agustín Ramírez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-108	20.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Casey Schmitt Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+102	20.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Brady House Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+101	20.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Justin Crawford Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-162	18.8%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Cam Smith Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+122	18.5%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ildemaro Vargas Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-132	18.4%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nolan Arenado Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	-123	18.3%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Cedric Mullins Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-157	18.2%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jose Caballero Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+129	17.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Bohm Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-137	17.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Dalton Rushing Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-124	15.6%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Seiya Suzuki Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-114	15.6%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Miguel Amaya Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+105	15.6%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Moisés Ballesteros Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+108	15.6%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Hyeseong Kim Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+128	15.6%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jung Hoo Lee Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+117	15.4%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jac Caglianone Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-117	15.2%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Xander Bogaerts Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	2.5	+109	15.0%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Luke Keaschall Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+107	14.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Michael Busch Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-112	14.7%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Chase Meidroth Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-101	13.9%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Sal Frelick Under	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-139	13.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Gary Sanchez Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+104	13.9%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jacob Young Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+124	12.0%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Logan O'Hoppe Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-151	12.0%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nasim Nunez Under	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-156	11.1%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Marcell Ozuna Under	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-149	11.1%	✓✗✗✓–✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Adolis Garcia Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-128	10.2%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Paul Goldschmidt Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-106	10.0%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Austin Wells Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+101	10.0%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ryan McMahon Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+123	10.0%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Christian Vazquez Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+128	10.0%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Isaac Paredes Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-107	9.1%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ronald Acuna Jr. Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-121	8.6%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Aaron Judge Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	2.5	-141	7.7%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Spencer Torkelson Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-137	7.7%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Victor Caratini Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+107	6.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Willy Adames Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+106	5.1%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryson Stott Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+105	4.6%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Dominic Smith Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+119	4.6%	!✗!–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Rafael Marchan Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+122	4.6%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Connor Norby Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+115	4.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Trent Grisham Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-124	4.0%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Vinnie Pasquantino Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-106	4.0%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Curtis Mead Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-107	3.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Sam Antonacci Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+100	3.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Andrés Chaparro Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+103	3.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Edgar Quero Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+120	3.7%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Everson Pereira Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+120	3.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Keibert Ruiz Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+121	3.7%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Tristan Peters Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+129	3.7%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ryan Jeffers Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-103	3.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Royce Lewis Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+117	3.0%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Austin Martin Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-104	3.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Williamson Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+106	3.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Fraley Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+118	3.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Fortes Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+119	3.0%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Andrew Benintendi Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-124	2.8%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt McLain Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-103	2.6%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Max Muncy (2002) Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+106	2.0%	✓✗✗✓–✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Andrew McCutchen Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+109	2.0%	✓✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Darell Hernaiz Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+111	2.0%	!✗✗✓!✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Colby Thomas Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+123	2.0%	!✗✗✓!✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Danny Jansen Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+131	2.0%	!✗!✓!✓	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-116	1.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Javier Sanoja Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-123	0.9%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Stowers Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-137	0.9%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Leo Jimenez Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-166	0.9%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Lockridge Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+119	0.7%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	David Hamilton Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+125	0.7%	✓✗!!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Konnor Griffin Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+127	0.7%	✓✗!!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Spencer Horwitz Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+136	0.7%	✓✗!!–!	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Michael Massey Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-134	0.3%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Loftin Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-133	0.3%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Vaughn Grissom Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-142	0.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Isaac Collins Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-150	0.3%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Isbel Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-162	0.3%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Oswald Peraza Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-161	0.3%	✓✗✓–––	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Matt Vierling Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-105	0.1%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Kerry Carpenter Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-101	0.1%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Colt Keith Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+103	0.1%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Javier Baez Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+103	0.1%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Tyler Stephenson Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+107	0.1%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ke'Bryan Hayes Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+120	0.1%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Rafael Devers Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-149	-	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter H+R+RBI	Spencer Steer Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-132	-	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
C	Batter Total Bas	Yordan Alvarez Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-109	87.6%	!✓✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Ben Rice Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+100	57.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Matt Olson Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+115	55.5%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	TJ Friedl Under	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-182	55.5%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Shea Langeliers Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+120	54.7%	!✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	James Wood Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+124	53.1%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jake Cronenworth Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-120	50.0%	✓✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Elly De La Cruz Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+117	48.7%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Drake Baldwin Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+114	45.7%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Nathaniel Lowe Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+132	45.5%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Junior Caminero Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-112	44.0%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Munetaka Murakami Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+114	43.6%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Sal Stewart Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	-101	43.6%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Max Muncy Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+129	41.3%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Trent Grisham Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-187	36.0%	✓✗!–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Otto Lopez Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+109	33.3%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Brandon Nimmo Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+117	33.3%	!✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Aaron Judge Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-105	33.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Michael Harris II Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+124	33.3%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Nico Hoerner Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+116	30.8%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Andy Pages Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+142	30.8%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Bryce Harper Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+111	28.2%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Mike Trout Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	+139	25.6%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Yandy Diaz Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+106	25.3%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Vinnie Pasquantino Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-168	25.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Salvador Perez Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-154	25.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Freddie Freeman Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+100	25.0%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Josh Jung Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+130	24.6%	!✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Nick Gonzales Under	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	-191	24.6%	✓✗✗✓–✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Ozzie Albies Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+143	23.5%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Colson Montgomery Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+128	23.1%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Kevin McGonigle Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+101	23.1%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Michael Busch Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-181	22.7%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Brice Turang Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+124	21.7%	✓✗✗!–!	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Xavier Edwards Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+134	20.5%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Byron Buxton Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+102	19.4%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Christian Walker Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+136	18.5%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Isaac Paredes Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-188	18.2%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Kyle Schwarber Over	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	+113	17.9%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Seiya Suzuki Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+135	17.1%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Dalton Rushing Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+116	17.1%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jac Caglianone Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-191	15.2%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jonathan Aranda Over	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	+115	14.7%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Andrew Benintendi Under	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	-163	13.9%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Carter Jensen Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	+127	13.9%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Zach Neto Over	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	+127	13.6%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Dillon Dingler Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+104	13.1%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Corey Seager Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+101	12.0%	!✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Paul Goldschmidt Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+140	11.4%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Austin Riley Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-189	11.1%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Riley Greene Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+108	11.1%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jake Burger Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+119	10.2%	!✗✗✓✓✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jose Altuve Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+126	10.2%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Alex Bregman Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+123	10.2%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Agustín Ramírez Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-186	9.3%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Ronald Acuna Jr. Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-166	8.6%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Geraldo Perdomo Under	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	+113	8.3%	✓✗!–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Bobby Witt Jr. Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-115	7.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Shohei Ohtani Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-145	7.7%	!✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	William Contreras Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+119	7.2%	!✗✗!✓!	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Chandler Simpson Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-166	6.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jacob Wilson Over	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	1.5	+128	6.7%	!✗✗✓!✓	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Kyle Tucker Under	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	-190	6.7%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Carlos Correa Under	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	-162	5.5%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Curtis Mead Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+141	5.0%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Nolan Arenado Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-131	4.3%	!✗✓–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jake Bauers Over	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	+131	4.3%	✓✗!!–!	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Teoscar Hernandez Over	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	1.5	+134	4.3%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Luis Arraez Under	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	-164	4.0%	✓✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Miguel Vargas Over	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	1.5	+130	4.0%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Josh Bell Under	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	1.5	-191	4.0%	✓✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Ildemaro Vargas Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-121	4.0%	!✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Trea Turner Under	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-146	2.6%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-160	2.1%	!✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Adrian Del Castillo Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-145	2.1%	!✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Alek Thomas Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-123	2.1%	!✗✓–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Freddy Fermin Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-113	2.1%	!✗!–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jose Fernandez Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-109	2.1%	!✗✗–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Ty France Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-130	2.1%	!✗✓–!–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Gavin Sheets Over	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	1.5	-150	1.5%	!✗✓–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Kerry Carpenter Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+130	1.4%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Matt Vierling Over	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	1.5	+142	1.4%	!✗✗–✓–	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Cody Bellinger Over	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	+105	1.3%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Jo Adell Under	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	1.5	-153	1.2%	✓✗✗–––	PASS
D	Batter Total Bas	Javier Sanoja Over	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	1.5	+154	0.4%	!✗!–!–	PASS
C 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL	No HR	No HR (Game)	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	0.5	-110	3.8%	✓––––!	PASS
C	Total	Under 16.0	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	-	-108	+48.5%	–✓––!!	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	-	+190	+3.9%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	-	-128	+2.2%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	-	-102	+1.1%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	-	-113	-1.1%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	-	-120	-5.3%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	-	+114	-5.4%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	-	-118	-6.4%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	-	-125	-6.8%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	-	-115	-8.6%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	-	-156	-9.8%	–✗––––	PASS
D	NRFI	NRFI	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	-	-113	-10.2%	–✗––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	TIG@RED	7:16 PM	-	-113	+19.1%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	MAR@GIA	4:06 PM	-	+122	+18.8%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	TWI@RAY	4:11 PM	-	-111	+17.5%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	ANG@ROY	7:11 PM	-	-102	+15.7%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	NAT@SOX	4:11 PM	-	-108	+15.4%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	CUB@DOD	7:16 PM	-	-146	+14.4%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	ATH@RAN	7:06 PM	-	-106	+14.3%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	PHI@BRA	7:16 PM	-	-113	+10.0%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	YAN@AST	7:11 PM	-	-125	+7.8%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	PIR@BRE	7:11 PM	-	+100	+6.7%	––––––	PASS
C	YRFI	YRFI	PAD@DIA	6:06 PM	-	-263	+4.1%	––––––	PASS

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

⭐ TOP PICKS — 100% book consensus (all books agree) + projection 1.5+ over the line

A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-154) diff 100.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 3.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 100.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.00
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Noah Schultz Over 4.5 (-140) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 30.9% vs 19% min [April: raised to 19%]): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.39K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (5 books): 5/5 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.40)
Noah Schultz: K/9 8.6, proj 5.9K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Eury Perez Over 4.5 (-146) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.5% vs 19% min [April: raised to 19%]): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.28K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (5 books): 4/5 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.60)
Eury Perez: K/9 8.8, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (avg/start)

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-123) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 2.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.70
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-126) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.65
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-148) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 2.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-147) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.56
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-130) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

A BEST PLAY Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-116) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds

Checks: ✓✓✓–✓– ► BEST PLAY

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Size	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Conf
C	FULL	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Total	Under 16.0	-108	49.6%	98.1%	+48.5%	$+88.84	HIGH	Bet on DK
B	HALF	New York Yankees @ Houston Astros	Run Line	Houston Astros +1.5	-126	53.2%	68.7%	+15.4%	$+23.15	MED	Bet on DK

Key Factors

FULL C Under 16.0 — San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Total) +48.5%

[IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Ian Koenig (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Philip Abner (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 16.0 [April dampening ×0.97]
Home SP: Zac Gallen (RHP)
Away SP: Germán Márquez (RHP)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Zac Gallen small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)
Germán Márquez small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)
Arizona Diamondbacks small sample — offense 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)
San Diego Padres small sample — offense 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)

HALF B Houston Astros +1.5 — New York Yankees @ Houston Astros (Run Line) +15.4%

[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Jason Alexander (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
Home SP: Mike Burrows (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Mike Burrows small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)
Ryan Weathers small sample (28 IP) — stats 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)
Houston Astros small sample — offense 33% actual / 67% league avg (regression applied)
New York Yankees small sample — offense 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Size	Game	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Conf
B	HALF	Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals (F5)	F5 ML	Los Angeles Angels	+130	41.1%	51.6%	+10.5%	$+18.61	LOW	Bet on DK

Key Factors

HALF B Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 ML) +10.5%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Cole Ragans xFIP 4.51
Walbert Urena xFIP 4.15
Home SP: Cole Ragans (LHP)
Away SP: Walbert Urena (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI plays meet the score threshold today.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥48% to play

Game	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Jacob Misiorowski	Mitch Keller	1.08	20.8% PLAY	53.4% PLAY	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Bryce Elder	Zack Wheeler	1.03	15.8%	45.0%	—	—

No-HR Play Detail

🔬 MODEL Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — No HR (20.8%) | Under 1.5 HR (53.4%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.572 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.080, SP_z=-0.37)
P(no HR) = 20.8% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.4%
Park HR factor: 1.08 Temp: 52 F Wind-out: -10.1 mph-eq
Home SP (Jacob Misiorowski): 0.0355 HR/BF Away SP (Mitch Keller): 0.0080 HR/BF
Pittsburgh Pirates Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Milwaukee Brewers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Pittsburgh Pirates Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Size	FULL ≥20% edge • HALF 15–20% • QRTR at threshold. Capped at HALF if one SP missing, QRTR if both missing.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Conf	HIGH full SP + offense data • MED one source missing • LOW mostly league averages

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

RECENT PERFORMANCE (last 14 days)

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 9 play(s)

Full Audit — All Candidates

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

Key Factors

F5 BETS — DETAIL

Key Factors

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Play Detail

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes