| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 616 | 55% | -22.83u | 37 | 62% | +2.94u | 291 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 532 | 58% | +9.04u | 25 | 68% | +3.86u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 668 | 56% | -33.29u | 55 | 51% | -7.83u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 455 | 62% | -1.19u | 35 | 80% | +10.02u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 133 | 47% | -15.71u | 5 | 40% | -0.80u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 72.1 | 48.1 | 90.0 | 4 | Curveball (43% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.235, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 69.0 | 70.0 | 74.0 | 5 | Changeup (48% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 67.2 | 59.6 | 79.0 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | 61.6 | 64.4 | 62.0 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 58.9 | 52.6 | 69.0 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Quinn Mathews | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.8 | 50.1 | 66.0 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | 57.4 | 54.5 | 61.0 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 56.3 | 58.7 | 53.0 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | 55.0 | 56.9 | 54.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | 53.1 | 63.9 | 45.0 | 5 | Curveball (45% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.3 | 43.5 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 51.9 | 58.4 | 50.0 | 4 | Changeup (38% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals | 51.2 | 43.7 | 60.0 | 7 | Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins | 48.5 | 44.5 | 53.5 | 6 | Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays | 47.9 | 48.4 | 48.0 | 6 | Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 46.8 | 46.4 | 47.0 | 5 | Slider (41% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 45.4 | 38.9 | 53.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 43.2 | 46.4 | 37.0 | 4 | Slider (28% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | R | 23.3% | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 70 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 17.4% | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 89 | normal | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 21.3% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 24.2% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | R | 19.4% | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 72 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 20.2% | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 99 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | R | 25.7% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 92 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins | R | 20.0% | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 106 | deep | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 30.8% | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals | R | 16.8% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 111 | deep | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 28.9% | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | R | 24.4% | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 30 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.8 IP/start |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 20.8% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | L | 21.2% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 90.00 | 10.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Quinn Mathews | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 22.5% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | L | 21.5% | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 72 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.2% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5% |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 21.9% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 21.5 | 3.0 | 16.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 10.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.01 <= 3 min |
| Hunter Brown | Hunter Brown Under | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 7.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Young | Brandon Young Under | Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Henderson | Logan Henderson Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | 18.5 | 19.2 | 0.7 | 3.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Jose Soriano | Jose Soriano Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 2.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140 | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 3.5 | 4.9 | -140 | DK Over 3.5 -140 | exact | 41.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -152, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -152 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price | 28.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Logan Henderson Over | BRE@CUB | 7:15 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -119 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price | 23.0% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Blade Tidwell Under | GIA@PIR | 12:35 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -149 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Wacha Under | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Lake Bachar Over | GIA@PIR | 12:35 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -121 | DK Over 0.5 -121 | exact | 147.5% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Blade Tidwell Over | GIA@PIR | 12:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -187 | DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact | 28.5% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Brown Over | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@RAN | 8:05 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -139 | DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Over | BRE@CUB | 7:15 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | -111 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 27.2% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@RAN | 8:05 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -149 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price | 12.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | +122 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Under | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -148 | DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hunter Brown Under | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -118 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -115 | best price | 4.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cal Quantrill Under | RAY@RAN | 8:05 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -104 | DK Under 3.5 -104 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Quinn Mathews Over | CAR@DOD | 10:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -105 | DK Over 4.5 -105 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | CAR@DOD | 10:10 PM | 8.5 | 8.8 | +122 | FanDuel Over 8.5 +124 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Blade Tidwell Over | GIA@PIR | 12:35 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +117 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Under | SOX@ORI | 7:15 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -157 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -154 | best price | 2.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Under | ATH@MAR | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -142 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -128 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luis Castillo Over | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +101 | BetOnline Over 4.5 +109 | best price | 1.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@ORI | 7:15 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +124 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | alt rescue | 1.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | CAR@DOD | 10:10 PM | 18.5 | 21.5 | +109 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +110 | best price | 16.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.01 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 18.5 | 20.5 | -107 | DK Over 18.5 -107 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Brown Under | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 17.5 | 16.3 | -111 | DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Young Under | SOX@ORI | 7:15 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | -125 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -122 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Henderson Over | BRE@CUB | 7:15 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | -109 | DK Over 17.5 -109 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 18.5 | 19.2 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130 | best price | 3.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jose Soriano Under | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 17.5 | 17.0 | -134 | DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tanner Bibee Under | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | +137 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | best price | 1.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 6.5 | 5.6 | -142 | theScore Bet Under 6.5 -140 | best price | 13.9% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jose Soriano Under | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -137 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Young Over | SOX@ORI | 7:15 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -105 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 -105 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Bibee Under | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | +115 | DK Under 5.5 +115 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Luis Castillo Over | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +110 | DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Quinn Mathews Under | CAR@DOD | 10:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -129 | DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Brown Over | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 2.5 | 3.3 | -108 | DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact | 33.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Over | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +134 | DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact | 6.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Luis Castillo Under | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -117 | DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Bibee Under | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -139 | DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Lake Bachar Over | GIA@PIR | 12:35 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -113 | DK Over 0.5 -113 | exact | 140.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Kade Anderson Over | ATH@MAR | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -109 | DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Cal Quantrill Under | RAY@RAN | 8:05 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Bibee Over | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -105 | DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Blade Tidwell Under | GIA@PIR | 12:35 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -110 | DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Luis Castillo Over | SOX@AST | 2:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -107 | DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Perkins Under | ATH@MAR | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Quinn Mathews Under | CAR@DOD | 10:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | +113 | DK Under 2.5 +113 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | CAR@DOD | 10:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -109 | DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | JAY@GUA | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +111 | DK Under 2.5 +111 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Wacha Under | MAR@ROY | 7:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +119 | DK Under 2.5 +119 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kade Anderson Under | ATH@MAR | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | +104 | DK Under 5.5 +104 | exact | 14.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context