| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 602 | 55% | -22.68u | 33 | 64% | +3.60u | 284 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 521 | 57% | +4.86u | 22 | 50% | -3.36u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 3 | 67% | +0.27u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 48 | 79% | +0.80u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 648 | 56% | -30.23u | 51 | 51% | -7.39u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 437 | 61% | -8.85u | 21 | 71% | +3.28u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 131 | 47% | -15.70u | 3 | 33% | -0.79u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 3 | 0% | -3.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 8 | 75% | +2.50u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | 68.1 | 60.9 | 79.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Athletics | 64.4 | 74.3 | 59.0 | 5 | Changeup (46% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 34.0%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Will Dion | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | 63.6 | 61.2 | 69.5 | 5 | Changeup (42% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 63.4 | 62.5 | 67.5 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 58% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees | 59.4 | 57.5 | 63.5 | 4 | Changeup (35% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets | 59.3 | 61.1 | 60.5 | 7 | Changeup (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | 56.6 | 52.5 | 61.5 | 7 | Changeup (35% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | 56.1 | 58.2 | 55.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (37% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 53.4 | 56.5 | 50.0 | 6 | Curveball (43% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Texas Rangers | 50.9 | 53.2 | 48.5 | 6 | Slider (27% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | 50.5 | 45.2 | 55.0 | 7 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies | 50.1 | 43.3 | 57.5 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | 49.4 | 47.3 | 53.0 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.4 | 50.6 | 48.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles | 47.0 | 45.2 | 46.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | 46.1 | 40.7 | 53.5 | 6 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | 44.2 | 43.7 | 44.5 | 7 | Cutter (28% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Povich | Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies | 43.5 | 48.8 | 36.5 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Elmer Rodríguez | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels | 43.4 | 55.5 | 30.0 | 5 | Curveball (59% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 42.9 | 47.0 | 37.5 | 6 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | 42.7 | 48.2 | 35.0 | 5 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Stock | New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | 41.2 | 42.3 | 38.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | 34.7 | 37.1 | 27.0 | 5 | Changeup (43% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Molina | San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | 29.5 | 27.2 | 30.0 | 4 | Curveball (36% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 6.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 17.4% | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Texas Rangers | L | 25.0% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | R | 18.1% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 101 | deep | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cade Povich | Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies | L | 20.4% | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 74 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 29.6% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 79.50 | 20.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 17.6% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | L | 18.0% | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 92 | normal | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | R | 17.5% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 97 | normal | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 17.5% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.6% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 72 | short | full | 27.00 | 73.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | R | 22.7% | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 79 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees | R | 23.0% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | R | 19.1% | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 79 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | L | 29.4% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 77 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | R | 26.1% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robert Stock | New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.3% | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 67 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.6% |
| Elmer Rodríguez | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 18.6% | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 27.1% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 21.3% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 101 | deep | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Anthony Molina | San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | R | 16.6% | 2.3 | - | 5.1 | 39 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.3 IP/start |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | R | 18.8% | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 89 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets | L | 29.5% | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 94 | normal | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Athletics | R | 29.2% | 3.9 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 65 | short | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Will Dion | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | L | 27.3% | 2.7 | - | 5.1 | 45 | short | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.7 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Under | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 14.9 | -2.6 | 14.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.0 | 65 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min |
| Ian Seymour | Ian Seymour Under | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 15.7 | -1.8 | 10.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 4.9 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min |
| Brady Singer | Brady Singer Under | San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Brandon Pfaadt Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 7.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Payton Tolle | Payton Tolle Over | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 7.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryce Elder | Bryce Elder Over | San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael King | Michael King Over | San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -132, expected IP 3.9 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Will Dion Over | MAR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -132 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price | 31.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134 | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -134 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -115 | best price | 30.8% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -117 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price | 19.6% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Clay Holmes Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -143 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Cade Povich Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -130 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.5 | -162 | theScore Bet Under 6.5 -160 | best price | 15.4% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Gusto Over | MAR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -230 | DK Over 0.5 -230 | exact | 157.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Gordon Over | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.9 | -190 | theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price | 74.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Michael King Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -199 | DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact | 68.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Robert Stock Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -151 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 30.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-204); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Anthony Molina Under | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -204 | DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact | 29.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Payton Tolle Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.5 | -136 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -143 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -139 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | best price | 31.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Gusto Under | MAR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -169 | DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Clay Holmes Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -132 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | YAN@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | Pitcher Walks | Walbert Urena Over | YAN@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +100 | theScore Bet Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 15.5% | ✓!✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.8 | -115 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -105 | best price | 20.3% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -131 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 20.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Stock Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -150 | BetOnline Under 3.5 -149 | best price | 19.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -110 | DK Over 4.5 -110 | exact | 17.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Clay Holmes Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -159 | DK Under 4.5 -159 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Elmer Rodriguez Over | YAN@ANG | 9:38 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -103 | DK Over 4.5 -103 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | MAR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | +119 | DK Under 3.5 +119 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -114 | DK Under 4.5 -114 | exact | 6.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +101 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Elder Over | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +107 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +125 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +109 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Under | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -110 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -108 | best price | 2.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Under | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +106 | DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact | 1.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Under | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -134 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -130 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | +124 | DK Over 6.5 +124 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Povich Over | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +105 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +108 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | YAN@ANG | 9:38 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +105 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗✗!–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -156 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob deGrom Under | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 14.9 | +105 | BetOnline Under 17.5 +105 | best price | 14.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ian Seymour Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 15.7 | -109 | theScore Bet Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 10.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brady Singer Under | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | +100 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price | 9.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Pfaadt Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.8 | -117 | DK Over 17.5 -117 | exact | 7.5% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Payton Tolle Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 18.8 | -145 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -140 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryce Elder Over | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | -114 | DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -111 | theScore Bet Over 16.5 -140 | alt rescue | 2.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | +102 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 1.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -130 | DK Over 17.5 -130 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Pfaadt Under | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | +107 | BetMGM Under 5.5 +120 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Taj Bradley Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -157 | DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -144 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -130 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryce Elder Under | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -130 | DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +122 | DK Over 5.5 +122 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | George Kirby Under | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -159 | DK Under 6.5 -159 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 20.4% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Elder Over | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -101 | DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact | 18.9% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Walks | Elmer Rodriguez Under | YAN@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -168 | DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact | 18.0% | ✓!!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | George Kirby Under | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -179 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 | best price | 16.8% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Anthony Kay Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -179 | DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact | 16.1% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -180 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price | 14.7% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Clay Holmes Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -174 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 11.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Under | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -189 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -114 | DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact | 8.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Gage Jump Over | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +131 | DK Over 2.5 +131 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jackson Jobe Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -176 | DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact | 5.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Over | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 3.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Will Dion Under | MAR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -227 | DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Taj Bradley Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -187 | DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ian Seymour Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -169 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price | 2.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Pfaadt Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -112 | DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +101 | DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -159 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -143 | DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Under | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -138 | DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Under | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -109 | DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Povich Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | +105 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Molina Over | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Elder Over | GIA@BRA | 6:05 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +102 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Jobe Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -140 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -130 | DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -140 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Elmer Rodriguez Under | YAN@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -136 | DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -149 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +106 | DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Stock Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -132 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Will Dion Under | MAR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -105 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -142 | DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Jobe Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -107 | DK Under 3.5 -107 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -111 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context