| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 595 | 55% | -25.91u | 48 | 54% | -2.92u | 280 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 513 | 57% | +4.38u | 29 | 38% | -10.31u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 6 | 67% | +0.62u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 179 | 76% | -2.95u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 631 | 57% | -26.50u | 64 | 61% | +1.69u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 426 | 61% | -7.05u | 14 | 79% | +4.38u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 1 | 100% | +0.38u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 129 | 48% | -13.70u | 7 | 57% | -0.05u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 4 | 0% | -4.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 16 | 50% | -2.03u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves | 70.3 | 69.4 | 81.5 | 4 | Curveball (50% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 30.6%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins | 68.1 | 60.5 | 80.0 | 5 | Cutter (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 65.4 | 75.0 | 61.0 | 5 | Changeup (45% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 34.1%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 64.6 | 62.9 | 69.5 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 58% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres | 64.5 | 62.5 | 69.0 | 7 | Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | 61.0 | 58.7 | 66.0 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels | 60.5 | 69.9 | 55.0 | 5 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers | 58.7 | 62.4 | 58.5 | 7 | Changeup (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ethan Pecko | Houston Astros vs New York Yankees | 57.0 | 54.0 | 57.0 | 6 | Sinker (40% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | 54.5 | 56.3 | 54.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners | 53.3 | 56.1 | 50.0 | 6 | Curveball (43% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | 52.3 | 44.4 | 61.0 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 48.9 | 46.7 | 52.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | 48.8 | 43.2 | 53.0 | 7 | Sweeper (25% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | 48.6 | 51.7 | 45.0 | 6 | Slider (29% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | 48.4 | 53.6 | 45.5 | 5 | Slider (36% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.9 | 50.7 | 47.0 | 5 | Sweeper (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | 45.3 | 47.9 | 41.5 | 5 | Changeup (29% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.0 | 39.2 | 52.0 | 6 | Changeup (30% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | 43.7 | 47.6 | 39.0 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants | 43.3 | 48.5 | 36.0 | 5 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | 39.2 | 31.4 | 41.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals | 39.0 | 40.7 | 35.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | 39.0 | 40.1 | 39.0 | 7 | Sweeper (27% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 36.6 | 37.0 | 34.0 | 8 | Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds | 35.8 | 33.0 | 37.0 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 28.5 | 34.7 | 18.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | R | 17.9% | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | L | 24.0% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 19.3% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 15.7% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 79 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins | L | 29.5% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 80.00 | 20.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 18.2% | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 82 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | L | 18.9% | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 96 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants | R | 17.1% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 35.0% | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 20.4% | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 18.50 | 81.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.6% |
| Ethan Pecko | Houston Astros vs New York Yankees | R | 22.5% | - | 3.7 | 5.5 | 93 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 3.7 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 9.8%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 16.6% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 23.8% | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves | R | 29.8% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 81.50 | 18.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | L | 29.5% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 69 | short | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | R | 25.8% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 18.7% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | R | 23.4% | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners | R | 26.1% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres | R | 30.1% | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 21.0% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 97 | normal | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 16.5% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 80 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 17.1% | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 79 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers | L | 30.3% | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 91 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 30.5% | 4.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 70 | short | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 18.5% | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 76 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | L | 20.4% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.6 | 2.1 | 12.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Under | Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Seth Lugo | Seth Lugo Under | Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 8.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Under | Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | 8.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.6 | 79 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael King | Michael King Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 5.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Payton Tolle | Payton Tolle Over | Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Brandon Pfaadt Over | Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | 18.5 | 19.3 | 0.8 | 4.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Cade Cavalli | Cade Cavalli Over | Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Tyler Glasnow Over | DOD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 8.1 | -149 | DK Over 5.5 -149 | exact | 46.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -152 | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@ANG | 9:38 PM | 7.5 | 9.8 | -152 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -140 | best price | 30.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@MAR | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | -146 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -146 | exact | 31.8% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | George Kirby Over | PHI@MAR | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -127 | DK Over 5.5 -127 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Adrian Houser Over | RED@GIA | 9:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -154 | DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | GUA@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | -104 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | exact | 25.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (1 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 7.9 | -105 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -105 | exact | 21.4% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | -125 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -125 | exact | 23.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Scherzer Under | ROY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | +121 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +122 | best price | 21.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Jobe Under | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -133 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -130 | best price | 18.6% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -143 | DK Over 3.5 -143 | exact | 13.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | +105 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +105 | exact | 12.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zach Thornton Over | BRE@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | +133 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -166 | alt rescue | 10.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Over | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +106 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Adrian Houser Under | RED@GIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -104 | DK Under 3.5 -104 | exact | 10.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | GUA@ANG | 9:38 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | +131 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Will Warren Under | AST@YAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +110 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +120 | best price | 7.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@SOX | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | -115 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | exact | 7.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Over | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +105 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -137 | DK Under 6.5 -137 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Elder Over | DOD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +116 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ethan Pecko Under | AST@YAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -145 | DK Under 4.5 -145 | exact | 4.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 6.5 | 6.7 | +117 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +118 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -135 | DK Under 3.5 -135 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@ATH | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -123 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -122 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +105 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +125 | DK Under 5.5 +125 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Under | RED@GIA | 9:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -150 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -150 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Over | RAN@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -108 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | exact | 0.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@ANG | 9:38 PM | 17.5 | 19.6 | -164 | DK Over 17.5 -164 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | -140 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -140 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | +118 | DK Under 17.5 +118 | exact | 8.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Under | PHI@MAR | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 16.0 | -103 | DK Under 17.5 -103 | exact | 8.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Under | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | +107 | DK Under 17.5 +107 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@ATH | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | -105 | DK Under 17.5 -105 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | -153 | DK Over 17.5 -153 | exact | 5.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Pfaadt Over | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -128 | DK Over 17.5 -128 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 18.5 | 19.3 | +110 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +110 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cade Cavalli Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -200 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -200 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -159 | DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Pfaadt Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -118 | DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -140 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -140 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Over | SOX@MAR | 6:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -130 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -130 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jackson Jobe Under | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -129 | DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryce Elder Under | DOD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gage Jump Over | TWI@ATH | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +105 | DK Over 5.5 +105 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Glasnow Over | DOD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -132 | DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -138 | DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Ethan Pecko Under | AST@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -158 | DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Jobe Over | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +116 | DK Over 2.5 +116 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Will Warren Under | AST@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Max Scherzer Over | ROY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +118 | DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Elder Under | DOD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -114 | DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | TWI@ATH | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -101 | DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Under | PHI@MAR | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Over | TWI@ATH | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -159 | DK Over 4.5 -159 | exact | 9.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -150 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 3.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Over | PHI@MAR | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -149 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context