| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 588 | 55% | -24.11u | 51 | 53% | -4.43u | 277 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 512 | 57% | +3.68u | 34 | 41% | -10.27u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 8 | 62% | +0.62u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 266 | 73% | -13.84u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 626 | 57% | -26.64u | 78 | 59% | -1.01u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 422 | 60% | -9.73u | 15 | 67% | +1.29u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 2 | 100% | +0.81u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 129 | 48% | -13.70u | 9 | 44% | -2.05u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 7 | 0% | -7.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 19 | 47% | -3.37u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 78.2 | 74.9 | 93.0 | 4 | Slider (53% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 35.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.229, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 66.5 | 72.6 | 65.5 | 3 | Changeup (47% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.5%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.9 | 66.8 | 60.5 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 31.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs | 61.5 | 52.2 | 72.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants | 58.1 | 50.4 | 68.5 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | 57.9 | 58.2 | 60.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | 57.8 | 63.1 | 57.0 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners | 56.8 | 59.4 | 56.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox | 54.8 | 55.9 | 58.5 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | 54.4 | 56.0 | 60.0 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Basso | Athletics vs Houston Astros | 53.5 | 47.0 | 59.0 | 7 | Curveball (38% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | 53.3 | 65.0 | 44.5 | 5 | Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Newcomb | Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets | 52.9 | 52.8 | 55.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (32% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | 49.3 | 49.6 | 50.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (27% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies | 49.0 | 49.1 | 50.0 | 7 | Changeup (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | 48.6 | 45.9 | 51.5 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 46.3 | 54.2 | 37.5 | 5 | Cutter (31% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | 44.1 | 39.8 | 48.5 | 7 | Slider (26% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 43.4 | 43.3 | 42.0 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 43.4 | 36.3 | 51.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | 41.5 | 27.3 | 52.0 | 6 | Slider (29% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 15.8%, put-away 12.1%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matt Wilkinson | San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox | 41.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 2 | 4-Seam Fastball (0% whiff, 72% usage) | Savant whiff 0.0%, put-away 0.0%, xwOBA 0.201, arsenal coverage 2 pitch type(s) |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Athletics | 41.0 | 49.3 | 29.0 | 7 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 41.0 | 46.9 | 37.5 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | 40.6 | 28.5 | 49.5 | 6 | Changeup (26% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 15.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres | 40.5 | 37.7 | 41.0 | 6 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | 38.4 | 33.1 | 44.5 | 6 | Changeup (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | 30.8 | 36.7 | 19.0 | 4 | Changeup (38% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 16.4%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.377, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians | 23.8 | 32.1 | 10.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.3%, xwOBA 0.395, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 18.5% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Brady Basso | Athletics vs Houston Astros | L | 19.8% | 1.5 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 25 | short | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.5 IP/start |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 24.4% | 5.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.9% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.7% |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants | L | 19.0% | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 86 | short | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners | L | 25.3% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Newcomb | Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets | L | 21.9% | 1.5 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 25 | short | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.5 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 16.7% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 92 | normal | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies | L | 20.5% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 14.4% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 92 | normal | full | 10.00 | 90.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Athletics | R | 20.5% | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 70 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | L | 18.7% | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 32 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.9 IP/start |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | L | 24.1% | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 70 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 26.9% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 93.00 | 7.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | R | 16.1% | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | L | 23.0% | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres | R | 14.6% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox | R | 25.3% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 25.8% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 28.3% | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 97 | normal | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 25.6% | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 37 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | R | 19.7% | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 84 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Matt Wilkinson | San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox | L | 21.9% | - | 2.0 | 5.4 | 90 | short | full | 100.00 | 0.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 2.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs | R | 20.9% | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 24.3% | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 15.4% | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 99 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 19.3% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 80 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | R | 21.9% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | L | 22.3% | 3.6 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 60 | short | full | 19.00 | 81.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Blake Snell Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 14.3 | -3.2 | 18.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 34.1% (1 books) |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 20.9 | 2.4 | 12.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.1 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.39 <= 3 min |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 16.9 | -0.6 | 3.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Over | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.2 | 1.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -144 | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 6.5 | 9.2 | -144 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -132 | best price | 40.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal A-tier prop gate: 50% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 21.3% and raw gap >= 1.00 for Grade A (got 21.0%, 1.16) | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -116 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -111 | best price | 21.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Jackson Kent Under | NAT@MAR | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.2 | -162 | DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact | 29.3% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -181 | DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact | 34.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Daniel Lynch IV Under | TIG@ROY | 2:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -162 | DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact | 27.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Over | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 24.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Cristian Javier Over | ATH@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 24.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Cristian Javier Over | ATH@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Over | BRA@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -132 | DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -137 | DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 3.5 | 4.8 | +103 | DK Over 3.5 +103 | exact | 36.0% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 7.5 | +113 | DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact | 35.8% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books) | K Prop | - Jackson Kent Over | NAT@MAR | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.6 | +130 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +130 | exact | 23.9% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Over | BRA@BRE | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | +111 | DK Over 4.5 +111 | exact | 20.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Cristian Javier Under | ATH@AST | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.6 | -140 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price | 19.1% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | BRA@BRE | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +123 | DK Over 5.5 +123 | exact | 16.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Janson Junk Under | NAT@MAR | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -127 | DK Under 3.5 -127 | exact | 15.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Over | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -101 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 9.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@DIA | 4:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | +112 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +128 | best price | 8.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Carlos Rodon Under | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -167 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -152 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Mitch Bratt Under | RED@DIA | 4:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | +116 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +128 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Under | MET@SOX | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -137 | DK Under 6.5 -137 | exact | 1.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Miller Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +121 | DK Under 4.5 +121 | exact | 0.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Blake Snell Under | PIR@DOD | 4:11 PM | 8.5 | 8.5 | -128 | FanDuel Under 8.5 -115 | best price | 0.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bailey Ober Under | TWI@PAD | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -118 | DK Under 3.5 -118 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 34.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Outs | Blake Snell Under | PIR@DOD | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.3 | +171 | DK Under 17.5 +171 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.39 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 18.5 | 20.9 | +142 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Under | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 16.9 | +107 | DK Under 17.5 +107 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | MET@SOX | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -160 | DK Over 17.5 -160 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -146 | DK Over 17.5 -146 | exact | 1.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Foster Griffin Over | GUA@ROC | 3:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -161 | DK Over 17.5 -161 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Over | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +115 | DK Over 5.5 +115 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Over | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -127 | DK Over 5.5 -127 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -125 | DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -110 | DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact | 14.9% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Miller Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -121 | DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact | 14.2% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Leahy Under | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -194 | DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shane Drohan Under | BRA@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -170 | DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -223 | DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Daniel Lynch IV Under | TIG@ROY | 2:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -114 | DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -118 | DK Over 2.5 -118 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -131 | DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | CAR@PHI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -107 | DK Under 1.5 -107 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -135 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -120 | best price | 20.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | GUA@ROC | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -159 | DK Over 4.5 -159 | exact | 16.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | GIA@SOX | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -118 | DK Over 4.5 -118 | exact | 13.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | TWI@PAD | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -146 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context