| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 581 | 55% | -27.77u | 49 | 47% | -9.73u | 276 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 510 | 57% | +3.90u | 36 | 44% | -8.69u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 10 | 60% | +0.33u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 364 | 73% | -20.68u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 622 | 57% | -24.26u | 83 | 61% | +2.33u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 420 | 60% | -11.21u | 23 | 61% | -0.53u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 2 | 100% | +0.81u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 128 | 48% | -14.91u | 10 | 50% | -2.03u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 4 | 25% | -2.13u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 9 | 0% | -9.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 27 | 52% | -2.94u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | 75.1 | 78.0 | 80.5 | 6 | Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 34.7%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | 69.4 | 63.3 | 79.5 | 4 | Changeup (39% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 68.2 | 69.5 | 72.5 | 5 | Changeup (49% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.0 | 69.2 | 59.0 | 4 | Changeup (39% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Anderson | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 61.7 | 63.0 | 61.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | 59.5 | 61.8 | 59.5 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | 58.8 | 54.5 | 66.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (31% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Houston Astros | 57.1 | 48.7 | 63.5 | 5 | Slider (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox | 55.9 | 58.6 | 55.5 | 6 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Athletics | 55.7 | 56.1 | 56.0 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | 53.2 | 58.7 | 49.5 | 5 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians | 52.6 | 39.7 | 64.0 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox | 52.5 | 49.9 | 54.5 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dean Kremer | Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres | 52.4 | 56.6 | 50.0 | 6 | Cutter (40% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | 51.3 | 57.1 | 50.0 | 4 | Changeup (38% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants | 51.2 | 59.1 | 40.5 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.2 | 49.0 | 51.5 | 6 | Slurve (34% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies | 47.5 | 48.2 | 47.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | 46.6 | 47.4 | 46.0 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | 46.5 | 42.6 | 50.5 | 6 | Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets | 44.4 | 47.7 | 39.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 43% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | 42.8 | 40.5 | 46.5 | 5 | Changeup (34% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 42.7 | 46.4 | 35.5 | 7 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners | 42.0 | 44.1 | 37.5 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | 40.7 | 48.1 | 32.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 39.1 | 43.2 | 28.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 38.2 | 40.0 | 34.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cody Bradford | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 32.7 | 37.7 | 23.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.369, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 23.4% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Houston Astros | L | 23.0% | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 17.8% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 18.9% | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.8% |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants | L | 21.9% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 80 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners | L | 19.5% | 4.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 76 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets | R | 19.3% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 18.1% | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 96 | normal | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies | R | 19.1% | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 102 | deep | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 20.1% | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 77 | short | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Drew Anderson | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | R | 24.4% | 2.9 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 49 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.9 IP/start |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Athletics | R | 24.8% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | R | 17.8% | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 99 | normal | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | R | 17.9% | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 69 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 30.0% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | R | 25.8% | 6.2 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | R | 30.7% | 5.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 79.50 | 20.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dean Kremer | Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres | R | 22.8% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox | R | 28.7% | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 82 | short | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 23.9% | 6.1 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 19.5% | 4.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 24.8% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 80 | short | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | R | 21.2% | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox | R | 19.7% | 3.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 62 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 21.0% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Cody Bradford | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 19.1% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 23.00 | 77.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | R | 36.4% | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 80.50 | 19.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | R | 22.2% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 80 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Casey Mize Under | Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 14.5 | -3.0 | 17.2% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.2 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Cody Bradford | Cody Bradford Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 14.2 | -3.2 | 18.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books) |
| Brandon Young | Brandon Young Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 15.3 | -2.2 | 12.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.17 <= 3 min |
| Hunter Brown | Hunter Brown Under | Athletics @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | 10.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.88 <= 3 min |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Henderson | Logan Henderson Under | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 5.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Luis Castillo | Luis Castillo Under | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 18.8 | 0.3 | 1.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eury Perez | Eury Perez Under | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Under | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 18.5 | 18.5 | -0.0 | 0.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.2 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.500/AVG 0.500 over 8 PA | K Prop | Blade Tidwell Over | GIA@SOX | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 5.1 | -128 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -120 | best price | 45.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | PIR@DOD | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 6.1 | -128 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | exact | 34.9% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Andrew Painter Over | CAR@PHI | 6:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -149 | DK Over 3.5 -149 | exact | 29.4% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.025/AVG 0.355 over 35 PA, pitch-type boost on 15% usage… | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -120 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | exact | 25.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Cody Bradford Under | ANG@RAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -101 | DK Under 4.5 -101 | exact | 23.4% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Luis Castillo Under | MET@SOX | 7:10 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -166 | DK Under 5.5 -166 | exact | 20.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 8.5 | 10.2 | -117 | DK Over 8.5 -117 | exact | 20.4% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Casey Mize Under | TWI@PAD | 8:41 PM | 17.5 | 14.5 | +121 | DK Under 17.5 +121 | exact | 17.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Irvin Under | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -145 | DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Dean Kremer Under | TWI@PAD | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Over | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -127 | DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact | 70.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Jake Irvin Over | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -144 | DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact | 36.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Over | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Over | MET@SOX | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -163 | DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Henderson Over | BRA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -138 | DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -153 | DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Drew Anderson Over | TIG@ROY | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 8.2 | +119 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +128 | best price | 83.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | PIR@DOD | 7:16 PM | 8.5 | 9.8 | +112 | FanDuel Over 8.5 +112 | exact | 15.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martín Pérez Over | BRA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -115 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -115 | exact | 15.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Over | RED@DIA | 8:10 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -113 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | exact | 13.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -115 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -104 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Henderson Over | BRA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | -119 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -108 | best price | 11.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -101 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Over | RAY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -149 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dean Kremer Over | TWI@PAD | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +105 | DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hunter Brown Under | ATH@AST | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -148 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -138 | best price | 5.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Soroka Over | RED@DIA | 8:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -154 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -154 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | -105 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Under | MET@SOX | 7:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -155 | DK Under 6.5 -155 | exact | 3.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Irvin Under | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -122 | theScore Bet Under 4.5 -120 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | David Peterson Over | CUB@MAR | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -102 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kade Anderson Under | CUB@MAR | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -125 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125 | exact | 2.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | TIG@ROY | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +122 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +122 | best price | 1.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Quinn Mathews Over | CAR@PHI | 6:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -137 | DK Over 4.5 -137 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gabriel Hughes Over | GUA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +144 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +145 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | TWI@PAD | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -124 | DK Over 4.5 -124 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Outs | Cody Bradford Under | ANG@RAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 14.2 | -103 | DK Under 17.5 -103 | exact | 18.6% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Young Under | RAY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 15.3 | -114 | DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact | 12.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.88 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Brown Under | ATH@AST | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.6 | -104 | DK Under 17.5 -104 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -181 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -160 | best price | 6.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Henderson Under | BRA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | -105 | DK Under 17.5 -105 | exact | 5.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Luis Castillo Under | MET@SOX | 7:10 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -102 | DK Under 17.5 -102 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | PIR@DOD | 7:16 PM | 18.5 | 18.8 | +104 | DK Over 18.5 +104 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Over | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -133 | DK Over 17.5 -133 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eury Perez Under | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | +154 | DK Under 17.5 +154 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Under | TIG@ROY | 7:16 PM | 18.5 | 18.5 | -214 | DK Under 18.5 -214 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Weathers Under | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -141 | DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Luis Castillo Over | MET@SOX | 7:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +121 | DK Over 5.5 +121 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | BRA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -130 | DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Luis Castillo Over | MET@SOX | 7:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +112 | DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | TWI@PAD | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -151 | DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Weathers Under | JAY@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Irvin Over | NAT@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -110 | DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dean Kremer Over | TWI@PAD | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -121 | DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -124 | DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cody Bradford Under | ANG@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -165 | DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@RAN | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -153 | DK Over 3.5 -153 | exact | 21.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Over | ATH@AST | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -130 | DK Over 4.5 -130 | exact | 18.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Over | BRA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -110 | DK Over 3.5 -110 | exact | 15.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Patrick Sandoval Over | GIA@SOX | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -140 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context