| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 518 | 56% | -12.70u | 69 | 46% | -13.23u | 242 | 57% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 459 | 58% | +9.05u | 61 | 51% | -6.80u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 161 | 58% | +5.16u | 22 | 77% | +7.41u | 44 | 64% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 1587 | 74% | -27.77u | 956 | 75% | -19.61u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 513 | 57% | -18.75u | 112 | 53% | -11.28u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 379 | 61% | -5.29u | 91 | 65% | +5.55u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 52 | 71% | +0.02u | 15 | 53% | -3.88u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 34 | 53% | -0.50u | 3 | 33% | -1.16u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 10 | 30% | -4.27u | 1 | 100% | +0.91u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 25% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 2 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 67% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 2 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 116 | 47% | -12.87u | 8 | 75% | +2.24u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 55 | 40% | -9.78u | 5 | 60% | +0.73u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 26 | 54% | -1.69u | 25 | 56% | -0.69u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 568 | 52% | -53.29u | 77 | 60% | +3.73u | 85 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | 74.3 | 78.5 | 77.5 | 6 | Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 66.5 | 72.9 | 65.5 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 66.4 | 55.4 | 80.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | 60.6 | 59.5 | 64.5 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 57.4 | 54.1 | 64.5 | 6 | Curveball (44% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | 57.1 | 59.0 | 61.0 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Mason Barnett | Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | 51.4 | 50.8 | 53.5 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.1 | 49.5 | 54.5 | 6 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.5 | 7 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 47.0 | 48.3 | 47.5 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 47.0 | 44.3 | 50.5 | 6 | Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | 45.3 | 42.8 | 47.5 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 43.4 | 44.0 | 41.0 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | 43.4 | 32.3 | 52.0 | 6 | Changeup (29% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 43.4 | 41.7 | 45.0 | 7 | Slider (29% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 43.2 | 39.5 | 45.0 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | 43.1 | 46.6 | 32.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 42.9 | 41.6 | 45.5 | 5 | Changeup (34% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | 42.8 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | 41.2 | 44.0 | 36.0 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 31.6 | 26.5 | 31.0 | 6 | Curveball (23% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 15.4%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kohl Drake | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 27.6 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.417, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohl Drake | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | L | 21.5% | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 72 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Mason Barnett | Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 22.3% | 2.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 47 | short | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | L | 17.1% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 20.3% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 99 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | L | 27.3% | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 18.3% | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 92 | normal | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | R | 17.3% | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 97 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | L | 17.1% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | L | 20.5% | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 99 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | L | 18.6% | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 104 | deep | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.4% | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 97 | normal | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 17.7% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | R | 18.8% | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.1% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | R | 17.4% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 29.0% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | L | 28.1% | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 92 | normal | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 24.8% | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 80 | short | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 18.5% | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 72 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | R | 21.8% | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 86 | short | full | 80.00 | 20.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | R | 36.0% | 7.2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 121 | deep | full | 77.50 | 22.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 9.9% | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 67 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.2 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.53 | 2.20 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 0.88 | 0.61 | 0.84 | 2.41 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Luis Rengifo | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.29 | 1.24 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 1.93 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 2.24 | 0.93 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 1.99 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Kody Clemens | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 2.23 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 2.21 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.19 | 1.16 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 1.89 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.19 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 2.40 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Carter Jensen | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 2.08 | 0.89 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 1.82 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Geraldo Perdomo | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.06 | 0.97 | 0.67 | 0.41 | 1.81 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jac Caglianone | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | 0.96 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 1.87 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Luke Keaschall | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 0.95 | 0.66 | 0.34 | 1.65 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ketel Marte | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.87 | 0.95 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 2.10 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Trevor Larnach | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 1.87 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 1.61 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Gabriel Moreno | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.86 | 0.97 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 1.63 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Salvador Perez | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 1.86 | 0.87 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 1.69 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Brooks Lee | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 1.83 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nolan Arenado | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.78 | 0.83 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 1.81 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Michael Massey | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 1.75 | 0.91 | 0.40 | 0.44 | 1.60 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Lars Nootbaar | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.74 | 0.91 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 1.59 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 0.90 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 1.58 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.64 | 0.98 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.76 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.60 | 0.81 | 0.42 | 0.37 | 1.87 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jake Cronenworth | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 1.60 | 0.96 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 1.76 / Over | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Isaac Collins | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Under 1.5 | 1.45 | 0.75 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 1.50 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_side_conflicts_current_model |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Under 2.5 | 2.45 | 1.23 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 2.63 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_side_conflicts_current_model |
| Max Kepler | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Under 1.5 | 1.44 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 1.53 / Over | 0.64 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, component_side_conflicts_current_model |
| Alan Roden | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Under 1.5 | 1.42 | 0.82 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1.52 / Over | 0.64 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, component_side_conflicts_current_model |
| Gavin Sheets | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Under 1.5 | 1.39 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 1.71 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_side_conflicts_current_model |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 1.18 | 0.65 | 0.56 | 2.35 / Under | 0.30 | season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Josh Rojas | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Under 1.5 | 1.33 | 0.79 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1.49 / Under | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Tim Tawa | San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Under 1.5 | 1.33 | 0.79 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1.49 / Under | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Victor Caratini | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Under 1.5 | 1.30 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 1.47 / Under | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Kyle Isbel | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Under 1.5 | 1.30 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 1.49 / Under | 0.59 | lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Kohl Drake Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -167 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 25.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-507); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Salvador Perez Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -507 | DK Under 0.5 -507 | exact | 79.2% | ✓✓!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-385); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Brooks Lee Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -385 | DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact | 60.7% | ✓✓!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-348); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Jac Caglianone Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -348 | DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact | 60.7% | ✓✓!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-348); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Kody Clemens Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -348 | DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact | 56.2% | ✓✓!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | John Rave Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -417 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price | 52.1% | ✓✓!–!– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Josh Rojas Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -507 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price | 52.1% | ✓✓!–!– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-570); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Michael Massey Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -570 | DK Under 0.5 -570 | exact | 52.1% | ✓✓!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Kyle Isbel Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -620 | DK Under 0.5 -620 | exact | 52.1% | ✓✓!–!– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-333); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Josh Bell Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -333 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price | 49.7% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-267); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Trevor Larnach Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -267 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price | 48.8% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-376); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Royce Lewis Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -376 | DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact | 48.8% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-320); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Jackson Merrill Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -320 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price | 44.7% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-329); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Bobby Witt Jr. Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -329 | DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact | 42.6% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Carter Jensen Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -284 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price | 40.9% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-248); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Luke Keaschall Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -248 | DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact | 38.6% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-243); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Isaac Collins Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -243 | Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price | 34.1% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-255); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Ty France Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -255 | DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact | 31.1% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Luis Rengifo Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -300 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price | 31.1% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-250); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution | Batter Walks | Nolan Arenado Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -250 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price | 30.2% | ✓!!–✓– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -122 | DK Over 4.5 -122 | exact | 8.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -123 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -110 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -188 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -174 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -108 | DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Wacha Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -112 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Bailey Ober Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -228 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -225 | best price | 13.9% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kohl Drake Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael Wacha Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +108 | DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Wacha Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +109 | DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -118 | DK Over 2.5 -118 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -103 | DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kohl Drake Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -110 | DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Luis Rengifo Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -266 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price | 32.2% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Bobby Witt Jr. Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -237 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price | 20.9% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Fernando Tatis Jr. Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -236 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Victor Caratini Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -290 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price | 48.8% | ✓!!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Alan Roden Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -471 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price | 48.8% | ✓!!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Tristan Gray Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -503 | DK Under 0.5 -503 | exact | 48.8% | ✓!!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Jake Cronenworth Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -231 | DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact | 31.1% | ✓!!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Freddy Fermin Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -385 | DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact | 31.1% | ✓!!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Walks | Ketel Marte Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -237 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price | 28.1% | ✓!!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Lars Nootbaar Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -152 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price | 25.1% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Gabriel Moreno Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -212 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price | 25.1% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Max Kepler Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -270 | Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price | 25.1% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Tim Tawa Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -306 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price | 25.1% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Ryan Waldschmidt Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -330 | DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact | 25.1% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Geraldo Perdomo Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.6 | -104 | DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact | 22.0% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Fernando Tatis Jr. Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -179 | DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact | 20.4% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Gavin Sheets Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -299 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price | 18.9% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Corbin Carroll Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.6 | +132 | DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact | 14.8% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Manny Machado Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.5 | -179 | DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact | 7.2% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D | Batter Walks | Xander Bogaerts Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.5 | -274 | Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Ketel Marte Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -134 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 39.8% | !✗✓–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Brooks Lee Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +104 | DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact | 21.7% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Nolan Arenado Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +104 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 20.6% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Freddy Fermin Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +113 | DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact | 17.5% | !✗✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Jake Cronenworth Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +115 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 17.5% | !✗✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Gavin Sheets Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +117 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 14.0% | !✗✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Trevor Larnach Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -113 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Michael Massey Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -106 | DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Lars Nootbaar Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -109 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +124 | BetOnline Over 2.5 +125 | best price | 5.0% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Max Kepler Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 2.2% | !✗✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Victor Caratini Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -145 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Alan Roden Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +122 | Caesars Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 1.3% | !✗✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Tim Tawa Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -152 | Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price | 1.0% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Josh Rojas Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -151 | DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Kyle Isbel Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -165 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Isaac Collins Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +101 | DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Total Bas | Jake Cronenworth Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.9 | -150 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price | 275.9% | ✗✓✓–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | Batter Total Bas | Freddy Fermin Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.9 | -165 | BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact | 275.9% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Isbel Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -150 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price | 217.7% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | John Rave Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -145 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price | 217.7% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Josh Rojas Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -145 | BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact | 217.7% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Tim Tawa Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -140 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price | 216.8% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Batter Total Bas | Lars Nootbaar Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -175 | theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price | 216.8% | ✗✓✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ryan Waldschmidt Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -140 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price | 216.8% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA | Batter Total Bas | Max Kepler Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -155 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price | 216.8% | ✗✓✓–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alan Roden Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -150 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price | 214.2% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | Batter Total Bas | Victor Caratini Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -190 | Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price | 214.2% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | Batter Total Bas | Tristan Gray Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -110 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price | 214.2% | ✗✓✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection | Batter Total Bas | Luis Campusano Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -172 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | exact | 206.0% | ✗✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection | Batter Total Bas | Jase Bowen Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -114 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | exact | 206.0% | ✗✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Arenado Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.4 | -175 | Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price | 190.2% | ✗✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gavin Sheets Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.4 | -155 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price | 183.6% | ✗✗✓–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bobby Witt Jr. Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -121 | BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price | 28.5% | !✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -106 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 28.5% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kody Clemens Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +114 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price | 28.1% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Manny Machado Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +108 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price | 27.5% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jackson Merrill Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +119 | DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact | 26.1% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Luke Keaschall Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -157 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ty France Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +112 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price | 25.3% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Luis Rengifo Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +114 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price | 25.3% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Corbin Carroll Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +102 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price | 24.1% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ketel Marte Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +116 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price | 23.8% | !✗✗–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Isaac Collins Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -187 | Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price | 21.2% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Geraldo Perdomo Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -201 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price | 13.1% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jac Caglianone Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -105 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price | 9.8% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Michael Massey Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +130 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price | 5.9% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gabriel Moreno Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +131 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price | 5.6% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Royce Lewis Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +114 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 4.7% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Trevor Larnach Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +132 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price | 4.7% | !✗✗–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Carter Jensen Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -143 | Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Salvador Perez Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -161 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brooks Lee Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -198 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Josh Bell Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -173 | Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Victor Caratini Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact | 93.4% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Royce Lewis Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -600 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact | 93.4% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Alan Roden Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2800 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact | 93.4% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Tristan Gray Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact | 93.4% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Trevor Larnach Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact | 93.4% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Tim Tawa Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Max Kepler Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1600 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Lars Nootbaar Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Gabriel Moreno Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Ryan Waldschmidt Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2800 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Michael Massey Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -900 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | John Rave Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Kyle Isbel Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2500 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact | 93.3% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Freddy Fermin Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1600 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact | 92.1% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Ty France Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -900 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact | 92.1% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Luis Rengifo Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -1600 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact | 92.1% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Jake Cronenworth Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2500 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact | 92.1% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Luke Keaschall Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -2000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact | 89.5% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Isaac Collins Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -1600 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact | 88.2% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Geraldo Perdomo Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -2500 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact | 83.9% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -700 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact | 80.5% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Xander Bogaerts Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 80.5% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Josh Bell Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -1000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact | 75.0% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Carter Jensen Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -600 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact | 72.3% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Brooks Lee Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 71.8% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Nolan Arenado Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 70.6% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Bobby Witt Jr. Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -475 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact | 70.5% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Salvador Perez Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -650 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact | 69.9% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Corbin Carroll Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.1 | -750 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact | 69.6% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Gavin Sheets Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -1400 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact | 68.2% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Jac Caglianone Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -500 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact | 65.5% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Jackson Merrill Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -1000 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact | 64.8% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Ketel Marte Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -800 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact | 63.6% | –✗!–!– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Kody Clemens Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -700 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact | 58.0% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D | Batter HR | Manny Machado Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -550 | theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact | 50.3% | –✗!–✓– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kohl Drake Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -139 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -134 | best price | 28.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -106 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +100 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Manny Machado Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 60.9% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Jackson Merrill Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 59.9% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Kody Clemens Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -117 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price | 47.6% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Corbin Carroll Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -141 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 46.8% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Josh Bell Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 32.8% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Luis Rengifo Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 28.7% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Ty France Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 26.2% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Xander Bogaerts Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Jac Caglianone Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -142 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 24.8% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Carter Jensen Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -132 | DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact | 21.5% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Geraldo Perdomo Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 20.6% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Salvador Perez Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -122 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Luke Keaschall Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -133 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 9.9% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Gabriel Moreno Over | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -128 | DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact | 8.4% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Bobby Witt Jr. Under | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -162 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Royce Lewis Over | TWI@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -120 | DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Xander Bogaerts Under | PAD@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -187 | Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price | 11.8% | ✓✗✓–✓– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context