MLB Full Audit Monday, August 03 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	504	56%	-12.28u	68	49%	-10.41u	236	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	447	57%	+3.47u	62	45%	-13.31u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	157	57%	+1.95u	19	74%	+5.04u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1408	74%	-16.92u	781	75%	-7.86u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	488	57%	-17.11u	106	51%	-13.65u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	353	61%	-7.66u	81	64%	+3.42u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	46	74%	+1.84u	9	56%	-2.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	33	55%	+0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	1
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	1
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	114	47%	-12.69u	6	83%	+2.43u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	23	52%	-2.09u	22	55%	-1.09u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	556	52%	-53.37u	72	60%	+3.31u	83	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

13 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	66.9	64.1	75.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	60.5	59.6	65.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	51.4	53.9	47.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	49.8	52.4	47.5	5	Slider (47% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	49.7	45.1	53.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	47.5	41.8	52.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	47.2	42.2	54.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.7	53.0	43.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	45.4	51.8	38.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	44.3	57.8	28.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	35.3	37.4	27.5	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	31.5	35.8	27.0	7	Curveball (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	26.2	43.8	4.5	6	Curveball (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.406, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

13 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	R	15.5%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	20.5%	6.4	5.5	5.7	107	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	14.8%	4.5	4.7	4.7	76	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	25.6%	2.4	3.1	4.2	40	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	23.5%	4.5	4.7	4.7	76	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	31.8%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	R	23.5%	5.7	5.2	5.3	96	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	19.2%	4.9	5.0	5.0	82	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.5%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers	R	17.2%	5.6	6.3	6.1	94	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees	R	16.4%	5.1	5.5	5.4	86	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies	L	29.3%	4.3	4.1	4.5	72	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros	R	19.1%	5.3	4.5	5.0	89	normal	full	4.50	95.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

4/4 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min
Michael King	Michael King Under	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	18.5	19.1	0.6	3.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

20 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Isaac Paredes	Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.06	0.98	0.44	0.63	2.27 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.00	1.14	0.49	0.37	2.05 / Over	0.40	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.98	0.95	0.50	0.53	2.04 / Over	0.40	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jackson Merrill	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	1.94	0.92	0.52	0.51	1.83 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ezequiel Duran	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.89	0.91	0.46	0.53	1.88 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Burger	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.86	0.87	0.41	0.58	1.87 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Bohm	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	1.79	0.84	0.37	0.58	1.75 / Over	0.40	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Willy Adames	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.79	0.87	0.50	0.42	1.84 / Over	0.40	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Brandon Nimmo	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.78	1.02	0.41	0.35	1.79 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Richie Palacios	Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies	Over 1.5	1.68	0.89	0.40	0.40	1.58 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ivan Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	1.64	0.94	0.35	0.35	1.68 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Christian Koss	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Corey Seager	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Drew Cavanaugh	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Evan Carter	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Grant McCray	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Heliot Ramos	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Joc Pederson	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Wyatt Langford	San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	1.52	0.87	0.32	0.32	1.56 / Over	0.69	minimal	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

257 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
► Add Signals
B	✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Hits All	Ian Seymour Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	5.5	3.3	-165	Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 \| exact	40.0%	✓✓!!–!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Brandon Sproat Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	2.4	-155	Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 \| exact	60.0%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Earned R	Cristian Javier Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	2.5	1.8	-150	Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 \| exact	28.0%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.9	-140	Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 \| exact	89.8%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.2	-400	Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 \| exact	66.7%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.2	-400	Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 \| exact	63.9%	✓✓!!–!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.2	-475	Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 \| exact	57.8%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Jake Burger Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.2	-475	Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 \| exact	56.5%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.2	-525	Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 \| exact	56.3%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.2	-350	Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 \| exact	53.5%	✓✓!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-340); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.2	-340	Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 \| exact	49.5%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Trea Turner Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	46.8%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-270); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	CJ Abrams Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-270	Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 \| exact	39.6%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-265	Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 \| exact	35.8%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-330); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-330	Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 \| exact	35.7%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Dylan Crews Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-350	Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 \| exact	35.7%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Jorbit Vivas Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-425	Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 \| exact	35.7%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Jose Tena Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-350	Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 \| exact	35.7%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	James Wood Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.7	-155	Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 \| exact	34.8%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution	Batter Walks	Nasim Nunez Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-300	Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 \| exact	32.7%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.7	-120	Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 \| exact	30.2%	✓!!––✓	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Total Bas	Yordan Alvarez Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	3.4	-118	DK Over 1.5 -118 \| exact	123.9%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
► Lean Signals
A (Weak)	◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B	K Prop	Ian Seymour Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	4.5	5.9	-139	DK Over 4.5 -139 \| exact	30.9%	✓✓!✓–✓	Lean Signal - Small Stake
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Lorenzen Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	2.7	-158	DK Under 3.5 -158 \| exact	21.7%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Aaron Nola Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	5.5	6.3	+103	DK Over 5.5 +103 \| exact	14.2%	✓✗✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Sproat Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	5.5	4.8	-125	DK Under 5.5 -125 \| exact	12.4%	✓✗!!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael McGreevy Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	4.5	4.2	-170	FanDuel Under 4.5 -166 \| best price	7.6%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shane Bieber Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	3.5	3.7	-163	Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 \| best price	7.0%	✓✗!!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Cristian Javier Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	3.5	3.3	+131	DK Under 3.5 +131 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bubba Chandler Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	4.5	4.6	-157	FanDuel Over 4.5 -154 \| best price	1.6%	✓✗✓!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Cam Schlittler Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	6.5	6.6	-138	DK Over 6.5 -138 \| exact	1.5%	✓✗✓!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	18.5	20.8	+120	DK Over 18.5 +120 \| exact	12.6%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael McGreevy Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	17.5	15.5	-132	DK Under 17.5 -132 \| exact	11.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael King Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	17.5	16.4	-112	Fanatics Under 17.5 +100 \| best price	6.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Logan Webb Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	18.5	19.1	+105	Fanatics Over 18.5 +105 \| exact	3.2%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Logan Webb Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	5.5	5.1	+100	Fanatics Under 5.5 +100 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Aaron Nola Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	5.5	5.8	-105	Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 \| exact	5.5%	✓✗✗––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Lorenzen Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	2.9	-120	Fanatics Under 3.5 -120 \| exact	17.1%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Aaron Nola Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	2.5	2.7	-130	Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Michael McGreevy Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	2.5	2.6	-130	Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Logan Webb Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	2.5	2.6	-120	Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Brandon Pfaadt Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-120	Fanatics Under 2.5 -120 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Cam Schlittler Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+100	Fanatics Under 1.5 +100 \| exact	-	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Hits	Cedric Mullins Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	0.7	-212	DK Under 1.5 -212 \| exact	50.4%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Cole Carrigg Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-246	DK Under 1.5 -246 \| exact	40.8%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Victor Mesa Jr. Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-257	DK Under 1.5 -257 \| exact	40.8%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Jackson Merrill Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-267	BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 \| best price	40.2%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Jake Mangum Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-262	BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 \| best price	40.1%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-204	DK Under 1.5 -204 \| exact	39.3%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Trea Turner Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.0	-238	DK Under 1.5 -238 \| exact	31.5%	✓✗!––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Jonathan Aranda Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.1	-159	DK Under 1.5 -159 \| exact	25.8%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Fernando Tatis Jr. Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.1	-179	DK Under 1.5 -179 \| exact	25.4%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Jung Hoo Lee Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.1	-222	DK Under 1.5 -222 \| exact	24.2%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Chandler Simpson Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-149	DK Under 1.5 -149 \| exact	22.6%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Junior Caminero Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-154	DK Under 1.5 -154 \| exact	22.4%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Yandy Diaz Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-115	DK Under 1.5 -115 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Yordan Alvarez Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.7	+186	DK Over 1.5 +186 \| exact	10.5%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)	Batter Walks	Bryan Reynolds Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.8	+105	Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 \| exact	58.8%	✓✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)	Batter Walks	Brice Turang Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.8	+105	Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 \| exact	51.1%	✓✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.2	-550	Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 \| exact	49.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-300	Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 \| exact	48.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-450	Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 \| exact	47.3%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)	Batter Walks	Geraldo Perdomo Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.7	-110	Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 \| exact	46.0%	✓!✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-425	Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 \| exact	43.8%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-255	Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 \| exact	43.4%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Fernando Tatis Jr. Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-340	Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 \| exact	42.8%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-265	Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 \| exact	42.3%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Willy Adames Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-280	Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 \| exact	42.1%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-185	Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Evan Carter Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-215	Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-180	Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Corey Seager Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-215	Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Drew Cavanaugh Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-280	Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-280	Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Heliot Ramos Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-375	Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Grant McCray Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-330	Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 \| exact	41.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Gavin Sheets Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-350	Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 \| exact	39.6%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Taylor Trammell Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-210	Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 \| exact	39.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	39.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Jesus Sanchez Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-450	Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 \| exact	39.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Jeremy Pena Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-330	Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 \| exact	39.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Brandon Valenzuela Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	39.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr. Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-215	Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 \| exact	39.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)	Batter Walks	Jake Bauers Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.7	-105	Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 \| exact	39.0%	✓!✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	36.3%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-215	Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 \| exact	36.3%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr. Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-300	Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 \| exact	36.3%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Richie Palacios Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-255	Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 \| exact	36.3%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Taylor Walls Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-180	Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 \| exact	36.3%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Endy Rodriguez Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-225	Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 \| exact	35.3%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Xander Bogaerts Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-400	Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 \| exact	34.1%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)	Batter Walks	Corbin Carroll Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.7	+100	Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 \| exact	33.8%	✓!✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Ty France Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-525	Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Jake Cronenworth Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-270	Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Luis Campusano Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-525	Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Luis Rengifo Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-350	Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Max Kepler Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-265	Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Adrian Del Castillo Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Tim Tawa Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-320	Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Ryan Waldschmidt Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-375	Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 \| exact	32.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-400	Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 \| exact	32.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Ryan McMahon Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Jose Caballero Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-525	Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Austin Wells Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-320	Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Paul Goldschmidt Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-350	Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-210	Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Jasson Domínguez Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-300	Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Spencer Jones Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-330	Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-425	Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 \| exact	31.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Willi Castro Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.3	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	31.3%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Ivan Herrera Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-450	Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 \| exact	31.1%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	JJ Wetherholt Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.3	-215	Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 \| exact	30.6%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-330	Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 \| exact	30.4%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Christian Walker Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.3	-265	Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 \| exact	29.2%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x)	Batter Walks	Cam Smith Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.4	-310	Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 \| exact	28.9%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-320	Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 \| exact	26.1%	✓!!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Batter Walks	Ben Rice Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.4	-210	Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 \| exact	25.7%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-170	Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-170	Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Jake Mangum Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-450	Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Luis Lara Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-180	Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Cooper Pratt Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-270	Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Marcell Ozuna Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-200	Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	David Hamilton Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-300	Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Christian Yelich Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-155	Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 \| exact	25.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Trent Grisham Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	0.4	-185	Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 \| exact	21.7%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Bryce Harper Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.6	+125	Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 \| exact	21.4%	✓✗✗––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.4	-300	Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 \| exact	18.7%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-280	Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 \| exact	18.1%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Gabriel Moreno Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.6	+145	Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 \| exact	18.1%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-425	Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 \| exact	17.7%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.6	+155	Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 \| exact	16.9%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.4	-245	Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 \| exact	16.5%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Rafael Devers Under	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	0.5	0.4	-155	Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 \| exact	16.1%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Isaac Paredes Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.4	-170	Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 \| exact	15.7%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Jackson Chourio Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-375	Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 \| exact	15.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Manny Machado Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-400	Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 \| exact	15.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Yandy Diaz Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-255	Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 \| exact	15.4%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Garrett Mitchell Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.6	+125	Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 \| exact	14.4%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	George Springer Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	0.5	0.6	+115	Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 \| exact	13.6%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Kyle Karros Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.4	-255	Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 \| exact	11.8%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Jonathan Aranda Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.5	-230	Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 \| exact	6.3%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Brandon Lowe Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.5	+135	Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Bryan De La Cruz Under	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.5	-550	Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 \| exact	4.3%	✓✗!––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	William Contreras Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	0.5	-225	Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 \| exact	4.1%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D	Batter Walks	Junior Caminero Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	0.5	0.5	+150	Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 \| exact	1.3%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Isaac Paredes Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	2.3	-120	Fanatics Over 1.5 -120 \| exact	51.1%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jung Hoo Lee Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	2.0	-140	DK Over 1.5 -140 \| exact	36.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Rafael Devers Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	2.0	-116	DK Over 1.5 -116 \| exact	35.7%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ezequiel Duran Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.9	+121	DK Over 1.5 +121 \| exact	25.4%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Burger Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.9	+109	DK Over 1.5 +109 \| exact	24.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Willy Adames Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.8	+103	DK Over 1.5 +103 \| exact	22.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Merrill Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-150	Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 \| exact	21.9%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Nimmo Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.8	-119	DK Over 1.5 -119 \| exact	19.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Bohm Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-170	Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 \| exact	16.5%	✓✗!––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Ivan Herrera Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.7	+110	Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 \| exact	12.3%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryce Eldridge Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-126	DK Over 1.5 -126 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Heliot Ramos Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-115	DK Over 1.5 -115 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Corey Seager Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-112	DK Over 1.5 -112 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Joc Pederson Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-111	DK Over 1.5 -111 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Wyatt Langford Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-104	DK Over 1.5 -104 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Evan Carter Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+124	DK Over 1.5 +124 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Grant McCray Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+128	DK Over 1.5 +128 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Christian Koss Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+129	DK Over 1.5 +129 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Drew Cavanaugh Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+138	DK Over 1.5 +138 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	Batter Total Bas	Christian Yelich Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	1.6	-170	Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 \| exact	224.2%	✗✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection	Batter Total Bas	Cooper Pratt Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	1.6	-143	BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 \| exact	224.2%	✗✓!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (1 books) — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Henry Davis Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	0.5	1.6	-103	BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 \| exact	224.2%	✗✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection	Batter Total Bas	Jose Tena Over	NAT@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	1.6	-160	Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 \| exact	221.4%	✗✓!––✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection	Batter Total Bas	Lars Nootbaar Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.5	-130	BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 \| exact	207.4%	✗✓!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection	Batter Total Bas	Jose Caballero Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.5	-156	BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 \| exact	207.4%	✗✓!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection	Batter Total Bas	Blaze Jordan Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.5	-143	BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 \| exact	207.4%	✗✓!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 40.9% (1 books) — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jimmy Crooks Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.5	+130	BetOnline Over 0.5 +130 \| exact	207.4%	✗✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (1 books) — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Nathan Church Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.5	-108	BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 \| exact	207.4%	✗✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	Batter Total Bas	Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.5	-170	Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 \| exact	206.5%	✗✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection	Batter Total Bas	Ryan Waldschmidt Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	1.5	-130	BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 \| exact	205.5%	✗✓!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Ivan Herrera Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	0.5	1.2	-164	BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 \| exact	144.4%	✗✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Ben Rice Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	2.3	+109	BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 \| best price	55.3%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Brandon Lowe Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	2.1	+121	BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 \| best price	37.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Yainer Diaz Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	2.0	+132	DK Over 1.5 +132 \| exact	36.3%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Christian Walker Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	2.0	+134	DK Over 1.5 +134 \| exact	35.8%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Masyn Winn Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.0	-278	BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 \| exact	33.4%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Xander Bogaerts Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.0	-204	BetOnline Under 1.5 -185 \| best price	32.2%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Gavin Sheets Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.1	-208	BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 \| exact	26.2%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jackson Chourio Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.9	+130	DK Over 1.5 +130 \| exact	24.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Corbin Carroll Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.9	+105	BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 \| best price	24.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Hunter Goodman Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-101	DK Over 1.5 -101 \| exact	23.0%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Isaac Paredes Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.8	+131	DK Over 1.5 +131 \| exact	21.8%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Rafael Devers Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.8	+120	DK Over 1.5 +120 \| exact	21.4%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Brice Turang Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.8	+135	BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 \| best price	20.6%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Ketel Marte Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.8	+117	BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 \| best price	20.1%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Tyler Freeman Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.8	+149	DK Over 1.5 +149 \| exact	19.7%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Kyle Karros Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-155	Caesars Under 1.5 -150 \| best price	17.6%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Bryan Reynolds Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.8	+146	BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 \| exact	16.9%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jordan Walker Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.8	+136	BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 \| best price	16.9%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Willi Castro Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-169	DK Under 1.5 -169 \| exact	16.0%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Ernie Clement Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.7	+142	DK Over 1.5 +142 \| exact	15.1%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Gabriel Moreno Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.7	+134	BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 \| best price	14.9%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Kazuma Okamoto Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.7	+123	DK Over 1.5 +123 \| exact	14.3%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Alec Burleson Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.7	+136	BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 \| exact	13.4%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jake Bauers Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.7	+171	BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 \| exact	13.4%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Geraldo Perdomo Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-217	BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 \| exact	12.4%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Garrett Mitchell Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-250	BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 \| exact	10.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Cedric Mullins Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-105	DK Under 1.5 -105 \| exact	10.4%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Nick Gonzales Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+163	BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 \| best price	9.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jung Hoo Lee Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+106	Caesars Over 1.5 +108 \| best price	9.2%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Esmerlyn Valdez Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+149	BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 \| exact	8.1%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jake Mangum Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+133	DK Over 1.5 +133 \| exact	8.1%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Spencer Horwitz Over	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+178	BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 \| exact	8.1%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Brandon Nimmo Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+126	DK Over 1.5 +126 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Trent Grisham Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.4	-147	Caesars Under 1.5 -145 \| best price	7.3%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Chandler Simpson Under	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.4	-101	DK Under 1.5 -101 \| exact	7.2%	✓✗!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Hunter Feduccia Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+138	Caesars Over 1.5 +138 \| best price	6.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Richie Palacios Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+125	Caesars Over 1.5 +126 \| best price	6.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Cole Carrigg Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-110	Caesars Over 1.5 -107 \| best price	6.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Taylor Walls Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+149	DK Over 1.5 +149 \| exact	6.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Victor Mesa Jr. Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-108	Caesars Over 1.5 -108 \| best price	6.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Fernando Tatis Jr. Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-122	BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 \| best price	6.0%	✓✗✓–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.4	-168	Caesars Under 1.5 -164 \| best price	5.8%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Bryce Eldridge Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+115	DK Over 1.5 +115 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Heliot Ramos Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+127	DK Over 1.5 +127 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Corey Seager Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+132	DK Over 1.5 +132 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Joc Pederson Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+133	Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 \| best price	5.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Wyatt Langford Over	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	1.6	+145	DK Over 1.5 +145 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Daulton Varsho Under	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.4	-184	Fanatics Under 1.5 -165 \| best price	3.8%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	JJ Wetherholt Under	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.4	-208	BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 \| exact	3.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jeremy Pena Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.6	+117	DK Over 1.5 +117 \| exact	3.2%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Nathan Lukes Over	JAY@AST	8:10 PM	1.5	1.6	+127	DK Over 1.5 +127 \| exact	3.2%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Manny Machado Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+124	BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 \| best price	3.2%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	William Contreras Under	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-192	Caesars Under 1.5 -182 \| best price	2.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Paul Goldschmidt Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+150	BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 \| best price	2.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Spencer Jones Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+146	BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 \| exact	2.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Ryan McMahon Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+167	BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 \| exact	2.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Austin Wells Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+204	BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 \| exact	2.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jasson Domínguez Over	CAR@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+142	DK Over 1.5 +142 \| exact	2.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Ty France Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+112	BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jake Cronenworth Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+133	BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Luis Campusano Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+174	BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Max Kepler Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+161	BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Luis Rengifo Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+147	DK Over 1.5 +147 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Tim Tawa Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+204	BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jake McCarthy Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-113	Caesars Over 1.5 -110 \| best price	1.4%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jackson Merrill Under	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-143	Caesars Under 1.5 -136 \| best price	0.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	TJ Rumfield Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.5	+106	Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 \| best price	0.5%	✓✗✗✓–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Total	Over 8.0	DOD@CUB	8:06 PM	8.0	-	-103	LowVig Over 8 +102 \| best price	+20.5%	–✓––––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Total	Over 8.5	PIR@BRE	7:41 PM	8.5	-	-106	FanDuel Over 8.5 -104 \| best price	+16.2%	–✓––––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Total	Over 8.0	GIA@RAN	8:06 PM	8.0	-	-115	LowVig Over 8 -113 \| best price	+15.8%	–✓––––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	F5 Total	Under 6.5	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	6.5	-	-144	FanDuel Under 6.5 -144 \| exact	+9.8%	–✓!!–!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: selected book disagrees \| books against us 38% (8 books) — strongly disagree	Run Line	Chicago Cubs +1.5	DOD@CUB	8:06 PM	1.5	-	-157	BetUS Chicago Cubs 1.5 -150 \| best price	+10.7%	–!✗!–✓	Lean Signal - Derisked
► Watch Signals
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Pfaadt Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	3.5	4.5	-160	DK Over 3.5 -160 \| exact	28.1%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael King Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	4.5	4.6	-112	DK Over 4.5 -112 \| exact	1.6%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter H+R+RBI	Richie Palacios Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-150	Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 \| exact	5.6%	✓✗!✓–✓	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Junior Caminero Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	2.3	-154	Caesars Over 1.5 -150 \| best price	51.5%	✓✗!✓–✓	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Yandy Diaz Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	2.0	-168	DK Over 1.5 -168 \| exact	36.3%	✓✗!✓–✓	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jonathan Aranda Over	RAY@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-149	DK Over 1.5 -149 \| exact	15.2%	✓✗!✓–✓	Watch Signal
D	◇ Watch Signal Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min	Batter Total Bas	Nolan Arenado Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	0.5	1.4	-160	Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 \| exact	190.9%	✗✗✗–––	Watch Signal

MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit