| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 422 | 57% | +0.95u | 59 | 51% | -6.20u | 193 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 371 | 59% | +16.46u | 46 | 59% | +0.77u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 355 | 59% | +3.63u | 83 | 65% | +8.17u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 259 | 60% | -9.18u | 66 | 64% | +1.64u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 103 | 46% | -13.54u | 6 | 33% | -2.52u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians | 68.2 | 60.4 | 78.5 | 7 | Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 64.7 | 61.6 | 72.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels | 64.6 | 63.3 | 70.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 62.7 | 61.7 | 65.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees | 60.6 | 60.0 | 67.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves | 60.2 | 70.1 | 53.5 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.0 | 65.7 | 54.5 | 5 | Changeup (42% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 57.6 | 60.2 | 57.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies | 57.1 | 79.4 | 39.0 | 4 | Slider (54% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 29.9%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 56.8 | 63.0 | 56.0 | 6 | Slider (37% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 56.8 | 56.7 | 62.0 | 7 | Curveball (38% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Alan Rangel | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 55.6 | 47.7 | 62.0 | 4 | Changeup (39% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 55.4 | 55.1 | 56.5 | 5 | Curveball (27% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 55.0 | 52.5 | 59.5 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers | 54.4 | 61.6 | 49.5 | 6 | Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Athletics | 53.6 | 54.2 | 55.5 | 7 | Changeup (37% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | 52.6 | 57.8 | 52.5 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 51.3 | 44.4 | 55.5 | 5 | Cutter (27% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 51.1 | 46.1 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 49.1 | 39.7 | 57.0 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 48.6 | 37.2 | 54.5 | 5 | Cutter (24% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | 47.2 | 47.5 | 48.0 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 46.8 | 51.2 | 43.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners | 45.4 | 50.3 | 42.0 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 44.8 | 43.9 | 36.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (37% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs | 44.4 | 46.9 | 42.5 | 6 | Curveball (42% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 43.8 | 50.1 | 37.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 41.7 | 49.3 | 34.5 | 6 | Changeup (49% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 36.2 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals | 33.7 | 35.5 | 26.5 | 5 | Slider (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.362, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 16.4% | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 107 | deep | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Washington Nationals | L | 18.2% | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 45 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.7 IP/start |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | R | 19.8% | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 67 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | R | 19.1% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 23.9% | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 111 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | L | 23.1% | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 86 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 29.2% | 6.3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies | R | 31.0% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 27.1% | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 18.4% | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 24.6% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 22.5% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | L | 21.4% | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | R | 20.0% | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees | R | 25.2% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 111 | deep | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 29.0% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 89 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | L | 21.6% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs | R | 19.8% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 28.0% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 30.6% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Alan Rangel | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | R | 24.2% | 3.8 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 64 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 28.7% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 78.50 | 21.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals | R | 16.7% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 77 | short | full | 26.50 | 73.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners | L | 19.7% | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 111 | deep | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | R | 27.3% | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 112 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 15.5% | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 99 | normal | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | L | 22.6% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves | R | 28.8% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.3% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Athletics | L | 25.8% | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | Hunter Greene Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 14.4 | -3.1 | 17.8% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.5 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Under | San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 14.6 | -2.9 | 16.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.2 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.90 <= 3 min |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | 18.5 | 21.5 | 3.0 | 16.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Over | San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 13.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 112 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves | 18.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | 13.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.46 <= 3 min |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | Washington Nationals @ Athletics | 17.5 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 12.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 10.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min |
| Brandon Young | Brandon Young Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 6.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.1 | 6.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Under | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.6 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Over | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 2.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sean Burke | Sean Burke Over | Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Robbie Ray | Robbie Ray Under | San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.1 | 0.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: full-lineup opp K% 20.9%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -157 | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi Over | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 8.1 | -157 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -148 | best price | 47.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 6.5 | 8.5 | +111 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue | 31.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -120 | DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact | 22.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 6.0 | -153 | DK Over 4.5 -153 | exact | 32.1% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Greene Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.4 | +103 | DK Under 17.5 +103 | exact | 17.8% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 4.4 | -158 | DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact | 32.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Shane McClanahan Under | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 30.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Nolan McLean Under | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Grant Holmes Under | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -162 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Johnson Under | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -120 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Sonny Gray Under | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -112 | DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Joey Cantillo Over | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -165 | DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact | 71.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -137 | DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact | 51.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Young Over | ORI@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -129 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price | 38.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-177); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Over | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -177 | DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact | 38.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -175 | DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact | 29.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-208); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Feltner Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -208 | DK Under 2.5 -208 | exact | 25.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Over | MAR@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 73.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Gilbert Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -152 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 53.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Over | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Shane McClanahan Under | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -149 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Feltner Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.5 | -164 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 28.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Alan Rangel Under | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -139 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -134 | DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -131 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Under | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B | Pitcher Earned R | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.0% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Hunter Greene Over | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.4 | -101 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescue | 25.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Sean Burke Over | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -104 | DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact | 19.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | +120 | DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact | 23.8% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | +101 | DK Over 4.5 +101 | exact | 17.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Under | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | +103 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +116 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | PAD@ROY | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -123 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 12.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | MAR@BRE | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.2 | +118 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -165 | alt rescue | 11.5% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.9 | +119 | BetRivers Under 7.5 -165 | alt rescue | 9.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Over | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -136 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 9.7% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | German Marquez Under | PAD@ROY | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -155 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | MAR@BRE | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -104 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -175 | alt rescue | 8.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | +109 | Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +110 | best price | 7.8% | ✓✗!!–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -108 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -106 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Over | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -105 | DK Over 4.5 -105 | exact | 4.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -177 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -149 | DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Under | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | -138 | BetOnline Under 6.5 -137 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Alan Rangel Under | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | +103 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 3.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -157 | BetOnline Over 3.5 -143 | best price | 1.4% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Under | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -139 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Under | ORI@AST | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -111 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -108 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Under | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | +116 | DK Under 6.5 +116 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!!–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +109 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -117 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +100 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.90 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Under | PAD@ROY | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.6 | -114 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -112 | best price | 16.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 18.5 | 21.5 | +123 | theScore Bet Over 18.5 +130 | best price | 16.3% | ✓✓✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Gilbert Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.9 | -175 | DK Over 17.5 -175 | exact | 13.5% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.46 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nathan Eovaldi Over | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 18.5 | 21.0 | +116 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -174 | alt rescue | 13.3% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Foster Griffin Over | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.7 | -146 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 19.4 | -114 | DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Young Under | ORI@AST | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | -129 | DK Under 17.5 -129 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -142 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -125 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗✓!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -154 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -150 | best price | 6.6% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Under | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | +148 | BetOnline Under 18 -120 | alt rescue | 6.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -129 | DK Over 17.5 -129 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -143 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sean Burke Over | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -106 | BetMGM Over 17.5 +100 | best price | 1.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +145 | BetOnline Under 18 -120 | alt rescue | 1.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Robbie Ray Under | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | -124 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price | 0.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Foster Griffin Under | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | +113 | theScore Bet Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue | 30.9% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Young Over | ORI@AST | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +111 | DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Hunter Greene Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -119 | DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andre Pallante Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -113 | DK Over 5.5 -113 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nathan Eovaldi Under | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +119 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Greene Over | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +163 | DK Over 1.5 +163 | exact | 35.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -137 | DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact | 21.7% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Sean Burke Over | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +113 | DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact | 20.3% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Johnson Over | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 20.2% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Robbie Ray Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -106 | DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact | 18.9% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Grant Holmes Over | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -164 | DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact | 18.7% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Lopez Over | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -173 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 18.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Alan Rangel Over | MET@PHI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -126 | DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact | 15.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Shota Imanaga Under | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -204 | DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact | 14.7% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Logan Gilbert Under | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -177 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 | best price | 14.6% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Walks | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -197 | DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact | 12.3% | ✓!!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andre Pallante Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -185 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trey Yesavage Over | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +114 | DK Over 2.5 +114 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nathan Eovaldi Under | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -188 | DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Under | MAR@BRE | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -174 | DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Casey Mize Under | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -132 | DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Over | MAR@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +171 | DK Over 1.5 +171 | exact | 6.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Foster Griffin Under | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -216 | DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sonny Gray Over | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +104 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 3.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Foster Griffin Under | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -101 | DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@GUA | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -139 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Burke Under | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | MAR@BRE | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -160 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -129 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Nathan Eovaldi Under | RAN@BRA | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -114 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Young Over | ORI@AST | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +109 | DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Greene Over | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -129 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Lopez Under | NAT@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -109 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Yesavage Under | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -137 | DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | TIG@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -144 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -135 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andre Pallante Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -131 | DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +107 | DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -105 | DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | SOX@JAY | 12:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -153 | DK Over 5.5 -153 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cam Schlittler Under | DOD@YAN | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +104 | DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context