| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 414 | 57% | +2.01u | 54 | 52% | -4.84u | 190 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 365 | 60% | +20.81u | 51 | 63% | +4.83u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 346 | 60% | +6.11u | 81 | 67% | +10.37u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 253 | 60% | -7.94u | 68 | 63% | +1.09u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 103 | 46% | -13.54u | 6 | 33% | -2.52u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 71.6 | 73.9 | 73.0 | 4 | Sweeper (51% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels | 66.0 | 67.6 | 68.5 | 5 | Changeup (49% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians | 64.9 | 72.7 | 60.0 | 4 | Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | 60.9 | 59.6 | 64.5 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 60.4 | 64.7 | 60.5 | 5 | Changeup (44% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 37.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | 59.7 | 61.2 | 62.0 | 7 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees | 58.0 | 63.7 | 54.5 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers | 56.2 | 59.7 | 56.5 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs | 56.1 | 58.2 | 55.5 | 4 | Cutter (39% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | 55.2 | 52.1 | 61.5 | 5 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Allen | Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.2 | 63.0 | 54.5 | 4 | Sweeper (50% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 33.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves | 54.7 | 56.8 | 54.5 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Owen Murphy | Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | 54.1 | 35.6 | 77.5 | 3 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 60% usage) | Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.8 | 64.8 | 45.5 | 5 | Sweeper (43% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Washington Nationals | 53.6 | 59.4 | 51.0 | 5 | Changeup (34% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.4 | 62.8 | 45.5 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.4 | 47.5 | 57.0 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | 49.7 | 62.4 | 37.5 | 5 | Slider (51% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 49.0 | 53.6 | 46.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals | 47.7 | 52.6 | 41.0 | 7 | Slider (39% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 46.7 | 47.9 | 45.0 | 7 | Curveball (36% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners | 46.7 | 42.0 | 53.0 | 5 | Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 46.7 | 43.4 | 48.5 | 5 | Sweeper (29% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | 45.0 | 42.0 | 47.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | 43.9 | 56.2 | 33.0 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies | 37.0 | 43.7 | 29.0 | 4 | Slider (35% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | 28.6 | 18.9 | 37.5 | 5 | Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 10.6%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | 28.4 | 40.4 | 10.5 | 4 | Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.394, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals vs Athletics | 26.8 | 32.6 | 17.0 | 5 | Slider (22% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.381, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | 22.1 | 30.2 | 9.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (30% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | 20.2 | 43.6 | 0.0 | 5 | Curveball (41% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.477, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 18.9% | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 59 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Washington Nationals | R | 21.3% | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 84 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Owen Murphy | Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers | R | 24.8% | 2.0 | - | 5.2 | 34 | short | full | 77.50 | 22.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | L | 19.3% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 101 | deep | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 22.7% | - | 4.3 | 5.6 | 94 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 4.3 IP/GS, low-K contact opponent 18.9%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins | L | 21.4% | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 92 | normal | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 18.7% | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 72 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies | R | 19.4% | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 55 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 29.6% | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 87 | normal | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Logan Allen | Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 23.2% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 13.9% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 9.00 | 91.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 31.9% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 91 | normal | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 23.5% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 33.00 | 67.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres | R | 17.1% | 4.6 | - | 5.6 | 77 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | R | 18.4% | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 10.50 | 89.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees | R | 27.2% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 25.6% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins | L | 21.9% | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs | R | 28.9% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 21.6% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 27.3% | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 76 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | L | 32.3% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 26.1% | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 70 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals | R | 21.5% | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners | R | 18.4% | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 111 | deep | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants | R | 23.6% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 24.6% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | L | 28.6% | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves | L | 25.8% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox | R | 18.9% | 4.1 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals vs Athletics | R | 16.2% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 80 | short | full | 17.00 | 83.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 12.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.16 <= 3 min |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Over | San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 20.4 | 1.9 | 10.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.5 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Over | San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -147, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Over | ORI@AST | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | -147 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -146 | best price | 25.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | RAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 6.2 | -157 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -156 | best price | 39.0% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Shane Bieber Under | SOX@JAY | 3:08 PM | 4.5 | 3.1 | +119 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | alt rescue | 30.2% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -149 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -139 | alt rescue | 22.0% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Dustin May Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -135 | DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Pfaadt Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -117 | DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@AST | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -146 | DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.93x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@BRA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -140 | DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Griffin Canning Under | PAD@ROY | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -153 | DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Over | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -154 | DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -158 | DK Under 3.5 -158 | exact | 31.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Dustin May Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -125 | DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B | K Prop | Max Meyer Over | MAR@BRE | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | -117 | DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✓✓!–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | MET@PHI | 4:06 PM | 6.5 | 8.1 | -152 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -136 | best price | 25.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | NAT@ATH | 10:06 PM | 3.5 | 5.3 | -159 | DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact | 51.5% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Griffin Canning Over | PAD@ROY | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -137 | DK Over 3.5 -137 | exact | 26.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | PIR@GUA | 7:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -152 | DK Over 4.5 -152 | exact | 18.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Under | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | +109 | DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact | 16.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | DOD@YAN | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | +106 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 14.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Over | ORI@AST | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -106 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 12.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -152 | DK Under 3.5 -152 | exact | 11.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | TIG@ANG | 10:08 PM | 8.5 | 9.5 | +104 | FanDuel Over 8.5 +110 | best price | 11.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Over | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | +120 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +132 | best price | 10.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Under | MET@PHI | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -146 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Under | TIG@ANG | 10:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | +119 | DK Under 4.5 +119 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | PIR@GUA | 7:10 PM | 7.5 | 8.1 | +112 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -175 | alt rescue | 8.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Webb Under | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -113 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | best price | 6.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | RAN@BRA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +118 | DK Over 5.5 +118 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | DOD@YAN | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -108 | DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.16 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | TIG@ANG | 10:08 PM | 17.5 | 19.7 | -168 | DK Over 17.5 -168 | exact | 12.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Over | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 18.5 | 20.4 | +108 | DK Over 18.5 +108 | exact | 10.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@AST | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -112 | DK Under 17.5 -112 | exact | 5.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Over | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -165 | DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -120 | DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | JT Ginn Under | NAT@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Under | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -127 | DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Spencer Arrighetti Over | ORI@AST | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -108 | DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Under | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -121 | DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Grayson Rodriguez Over | TIG@ANG | 10:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -114 | DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@BRA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Canning Under | PAD@ROY | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +110 | DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JT Ginn Over | NAT@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -137 | DK Over 2.5 -137 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@AST | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -109 | DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Under | GIA@MAR | 8:09 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -158 | DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Under | TIG@ANG | 10:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -107 | DK Under 1.5 -107 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Dustin May Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -122 | DK Over 3.5 -122 | exact | 28.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Over | MAR@BRE | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -127 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 20.5% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Over | SOX@JAY | 3:08 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -162 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price | 18.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Patrick Sandoval Over | RAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -144 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 12.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Over | CAR@DIA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -132 | DK Over 3.5 -132 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | TWI@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | +130 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 9.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context