MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Friday, July 17 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED40657%-2.73u5349%-8.03u18860%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED35759%+18.13u5062%+3.77u333%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED13854%-3.08u0-+0.00u4163%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH62772%-9.06u0-+0.00u580%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH33059%+3.35u7761%+2.38u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH24059%-12.72u5958%-4.25u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3778%+3.90u0-+0.00u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3155%+0.66u0-+0.00u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH10346%-13.54u743%-1.42u250%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH5038%-10.52u0-+0.00u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-6
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED48450%-56.69u0-+0.00u7053%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted5/5No blocker
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants73.162.489.57Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.236, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Logan HendersonMilwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins65.062.771.54Changeup (35% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians64.972.760.04Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid DetmersLos Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers61.561.764.05Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers61.463.863.04Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy MeltonDetroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels60.753.573.06Slider (35% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel HughesColorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds60.143.679.554-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 58% usage)Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake BennettBoston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays59.049.173.56Changeup (32% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners58.454.764.55Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter LambertHouston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles57.251.064.07Changeup (38% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gavin WilliamsCleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates53.864.845.55Sweeper (43% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dean KremerBaltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros53.164.544.06Split-Finger (45% whiff, 35% usage)Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade CavalliWashington Nationals vs Athletics52.456.649.56Curveball (39% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Spencer MilesToronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox52.342.066.05Curveball (22% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees51.559.441.53Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Gerrit ColeNew York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers51.039.762.05Slider (27% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox51.071.731.56Changeup (40% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers51.045.257.07Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gage JumpAthletics vs Washington Nationals50.450.053.06Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael KingSan Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals46.452.843.054-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bailey OberMinnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs43.939.546.56Sweeper (38% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady SingerCincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies40.750.328.55Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony KayChicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays39.644.533.06Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal QuantrillTexas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves38.434.142.554-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 12.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth LugoKansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres34.637.729.08Cutter (25% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevySt. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks34.237.831.07Sweeper (27% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins32.036.426.07Slider (32% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Merrill KellyArizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals24.539.95.06Slider (35% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.405, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Merrill KellyArizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsR15.0%5.85.85.897normalfull5.0095.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Gage JumpAthletics vs Washington NationalsL24.3%4.95.45.382shortfull53.0047.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start
Chris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Texas RangersL28.8%4.95.85.682shortfull63.0037.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start
Dean KremerBaltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosR25.4%5.55.55.692normalfull44.0056.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jake BennettBoston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysL21.5%6.36.06.0106deepfull73.5026.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 18.9%
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Minnesota TwinsR15.9%4.95.25.182shortfull26.0074.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start
Anthony KayChicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysL17.6%4.54.84.876shortfull33.0067.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Brady SingerCincinnati Reds vs Colorado RockiesR20.8%5.65.05.194normalfull28.5071.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Gavin WilliamsCleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh PiratesR29.6%5.26.06.087normalfull45.5054.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.5%
Gabriel HughesColorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsR22.7%4.56.05.676shortfull79.5020.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Troy MeltonDetroit Tigers vs Los Angeles AngelsR24.5%5.66.26.094normalfull73.0027.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Peter LambertHouston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesR23.3%5.55.75.792normalfull64.0036.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.1%
Seth LugoKansas City Royals vs San Diego PadresR18.4%5.05.55.484shortfull29.0071.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Reid DetmersLos Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersL25.2%5.45.75.791normalfull64.0036.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs New York YankeesR21.4%4.55.15.076shortfull41.5058.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersR19.3%6.56.56.5109deepfull57.0043.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.6%
Logan HendersonMilwaukee Brewers vs Miami MarlinsR27.1%5.24.75.287normalfull71.5028.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Bailey OberMinnesota Twins vs Chicago CubsR17.0%5.65.55.594normalfull46.5053.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 11.0%
Gerrit ColeNew York Yankees vs Los Angeles DodgersR23.3%5.35.45.489normalfull62.0038.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.4%
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland GuardiansR26.1%4.24.44.670shortfull60.0040.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Michael KingSan Diego Padres vs Kansas City RoyalsR19.5%5.45.75.691normalfull43.0057.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Seattle MarinersR24.5%5.35.45.489normalfull64.5035.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs San Francisco GiantsR29.1%6.05.86.0101deepfull89.5010.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Michael McGreevySt. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksR15.8%5.85.75.797normalfull31.0069.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.6%
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxR26.1%5.24.44.587normalfull31.5068.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Cal QuantrillTexas Rangers vs Atlanta BravesR16.1%3.84.24.964shortfull42.5057.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.8 IP/start
Spencer MilesToronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White SoxR23.8%2.53.34.542shortfull66.0034.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.5 IP/start
Cade CavalliWashington Nationals vs AthleticsR26.7%4.74.94.979shortfull49.5050.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly UnderSt. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks17.516.2-1.47.7%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.897season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sandy AlcantaraSandy Alcantara OverMiami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers17.519.92.413.9%BMONITORresearchdeep6.5109season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min
Bryce MillerBryce Miller OverSan Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners17.519.31.810.1%BMONITORresearchdeep6.0101season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.76 <= 3 min
Gavin WilliamsGavin Williams OverPittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians17.518.61.16.3%BMONITORresearchnormal6.087season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid DetmersReid Detmers UnderDetroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels17.517.0-0.52.7%BMONITORresearchnormal5.791season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chris SaleChris Sale OverTexas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves17.517.50.00.0%BMONITORresearchshort5.682season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

101 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffSignal Breakdown ✓!✗–Tier
► Best Signals
A✅ Best SignalK PropGriffin Jax OverRAY@SOX7:11 PM5.56.6+124BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 | alt rescue20.2%Best Signal
A✅ Best SignalPitcher Hits AllMerrill Kelly OverCAR@DIA9:41 PM5.56.6-146BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price20.0%Best Signal
► Add Signals
B✅ Add Signal
Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
K PropDean Kremer OverORI@AST8:11 PM4.56.0-147FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price33.9%!Add Signal
B🔬 Research Only
Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks
K PropSpencer Miles UnderSOX@JAY7:16 PM3.52.4+117DK Under 3.5 +117 | exact31.9%!!Add Signal
B🔬 Research Only
Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution
K PropCal Quantrill UnderRAN@BRA7:16 PM3.52.4-168BetRivers Under 3.5 -167 | best price30.2%!Add Signal
B🔬 Research Only
Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
K PropCade Cavalli OverNAT@ATH9:41 PM4.55.7-133FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price27.1%!Add Signal
B✅ Add Signal
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch
K PropTroy Melton OverTIG@ANG9:39 PM5.57.0-116FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price26.9%!Add Signal
B✅ Add Signal
Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Hits AllCal Quantrill UnderRAN@BRA7:16 PM5.53.6-151DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact34.5%!Add Signal
B✅ Add SignalPitcher Hits AllGabriel Hughes UnderRED@ROC8:41 PM5.53.7-116DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact32.7%!Add Signal
B✅ Add SignalPitcher Hits AllMichael King UnderPAD@ROY8:11 PM5.53.9-140theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price29.1%!Add Signal
B✅ Add SignalPitcher Hits AllCade Cavalli UnderNAT@ATH9:41 PM5.54.3-125DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact21.8%!Add Signal
B✅ Add SignalPitcher Hits AllBrady Singer UnderRED@ROC8:41 PM6.55.2-147BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | best price20.0%!Add Signal
B✅ Add SignalPitcher Hits AllJake Bennett UnderRAY@SOX7:11 PM5.54.4-106BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price20.0%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksPeter Lambert OverORI@AST8:11 PM1.52.5-200DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact68.7%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksMichael King OverPAD@ROY8:11 PM1.52.3-182theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price51.3%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksMerrill Kelly OverCAR@DIA9:41 PM1.52.2-155DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact45.4%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksReid Detmers OverTIG@ANG9:39 PM1.52.0-151DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact33.6%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher WalksGavin Williams OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM1.52.0-113DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact32.1%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher WalksGage Jump OverNAT@ATH9:41 PM1.51.8-124DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact22.1%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksGabriel Hughes OverRED@ROC8:41 PM1.51.8-169DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact22.1%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher WalksSandy Alcantara OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM1.51.8-109DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact20.3%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksRoki Sasaki UnderDOD@YAN7:06 PM2.52.1-192theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price17.1%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksCal Quantrill UnderRAN@BRA7:16 PM1.51.3-158DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact13.5%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksDean Kremer OverORI@AST8:11 PM1.51.7-160DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact12.8%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RGavin Williams OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM1.52.3-170DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact53.3%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RMerrill Kelly OverCAR@DIA9:41 PM2.53.8-117DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact52.0%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RGabriel Hughes UnderRED@ROC8:41 PM3.51.8-150DK Under 3.5 -150 | exact48.6%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RCade Cavalli UnderNAT@ATH9:41 PM2.51.8-138DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact28.0%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RLogan Henderson OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM1.51.9-147BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price26.7%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RBrady Singer UnderRED@ROC8:41 PM3.52.6-155BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | best price25.7%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RTroy Melton UnderTIG@ANG9:39 PM2.51.9-164DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact24.0%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RBailey Ober UnderTWI@CUB8:06 PM3.52.8-162BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price20.0%!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RJared Jones OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM1.51.8-145DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact20.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RBryce Miller OverGIA@MAR10:11 PM1.51.8-121DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact20.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RJake Bennett UnderRAY@SOX7:11 PM2.52.1-133DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact16.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RCal Quantrill UnderRAN@BRA7:16 PM2.52.1-117BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price16.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RSeth Lugo OverPAD@ROY8:11 PM2.52.9-131DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact16.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RLanden Roupp UnderGIA@MAR10:11 PM2.52.1-152DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact16.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RColin Rea OverTWI@CUB8:06 PM2.52.8-119DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact12.0%!!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RPeter Lambert UnderORI@AST8:11 PM2.52.2-109DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact12.0%!!Add Signal
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
B (Weak)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…
Pitcher Earned RGriffin Jax OverRAY@SOX7:11 PM1.51.9-151DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact26.7%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropGerrit Cole UnderDOD@YAN7:06 PM5.54.5-144BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price17.8%!!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropGage Jump OverNAT@ATH9:41 PM4.55.3-151BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price17.5%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropBrady Singer OverRED@ROC8:41 PM4.55.1+114FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price13.9%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropSandy Alcantara OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM4.55.1-141FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price13.7%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropSeth Lugo OverPAD@ROY8:11 PM3.53.8-172theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270 | best price9.3%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D
K PropGavin Williams OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM7.58.1+116BetRivers Over 6.5 -143 | alt rescue8.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropMichael King OverPAD@ROY8:11 PM4.54.8+111BetRivers Over 4.5 +115 | best price7.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropMerrill Kelly OverCAR@DIA9:41 PM3.53.7-109BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price6.5%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D
K PropChris Sale OverRAN@BRA7:16 PM7.57.9+107BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescue5.8%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropLanden Roupp OverGIA@MAR10:11 PM5.55.8-106BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price4.7%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropMichael McGreevy OverCAR@DIA9:41 PM3.53.6+129FanDuel Over 3.5 +134 | best price3.0%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropReid Detmers OverTIG@ANG9:39 PM6.56.7-125BetRivers Over 6.5 -120 | best price2.9%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropRoki Sasaki OverDOD@YAN7:06 PM5.55.6+128theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135 | alt rescue2.5%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropGabriel Hughes UnderRED@ROC8:41 PM4.54.4-120BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price2.3%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropLogan Henderson UnderMAR@BRE7:41 PM5.55.4-133DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact1.3%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropJared Jones OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM5.55.5-109BetRivers Over 5.5 -104 | best price0.1%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropPeter Lambert UnderORI@AST8:11 PM5.55.5-124DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact0.1%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsMerrill Kelly UnderCAR@DIA9:41 PM17.516.2-101DK Under 17.5 -101 | exact7.7%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllBailey Ober UnderTWI@CUB8:06 PM5.54.8-135DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact12.7%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllSandy Alcantara OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM5.56.1-162DK Over 5.5 -162 | exact10.9%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllMichael McGreevy UnderCAR@DIA9:41 PM5.54.9-112BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price10.9%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllGavin Williams UnderPIR@GUA7:11 PM5.55.1-148Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price7.3%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllGerrit Cole UnderDOD@YAN7:06 PM5.55.4-167Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price1.8%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllColin Rea OverTWI@CUB8:06 PM5.55.6-109theScore Bet Over 5.5 -105 | best price1.8%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllGage Jump UnderNAT@ATH9:41 PM5.55.4-122BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price1.8%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksColin Rea OverTWI@CUB8:06 PM1.51.7+119DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact15.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksLogan Henderson OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM1.51.7+157DK Over 1.5 +157 | exact14.5%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksBrady Singer OverRED@ROC8:41 PM1.51.7+104DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact12.8%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksSeth Lugo OverPAD@ROY8:11 PM1.51.7+105theScore Bet Over 1.5 +105 | best price12.8%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksTroy Melton OverTIG@ANG9:39 PM1.51.7+137DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact12.1%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksAnthony Kay OverSOX@JAY7:16 PM1.51.7-194theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price11.6%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksCade Cavalli OverNAT@ATH9:41 PM1.51.7+102DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact11.0%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksMichael McGreevy UnderCAR@DIA9:41 PM1.51.3+118DK Under 1.5 +118 | exact10.5%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksBailey Ober OverTWI@CUB8:06 PM1.51.6-113DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact8.4%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksGriffin Jax OverRAY@SOX7:11 PM1.51.6+158DK Over 1.5 +158 | exact8.1%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksJared Jones OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM1.51.6-137theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price6.7%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksGerrit Cole OverDOD@YAN7:06 PM1.51.5-120theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price2.6%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksChris Sale UnderRAN@BRA7:16 PM1.51.5-168DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact1.1%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksJake Bennett OverRAY@SOX7:11 PM1.51.5+145DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact0.1%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RRoki Sasaki OverDOD@YAN7:06 PM2.52.7+111DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact8.0%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RSandy Alcantara OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM2.52.7-134DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact8.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RReid Detmers UnderTIG@ANG9:39 PM2.52.3-148DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact8.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RGage Jump UnderNAT@ATH9:41 PM2.52.3-107BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price8.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RGerrit Cole UnderDOD@YAN7:06 PM2.52.4-103DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact4.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RAnthony Kay OverSOX@JAY7:16 PM2.52.6-102BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price4.0%Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RDean Kremer UnderORI@AST8:11 PM2.52.4-128DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact4.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RMichael McGreevy UnderCAR@DIA9:41 PM2.52.4-120BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price4.0%!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RChris Sale UnderRAN@BRA7:16 PM1.51.5+106DK Under 1.5 +106 | exact-!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RMichael King UnderPAD@ROY8:11 PM2.52.5-105DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact-!Lean Signal - Derisked
► Watch Signals
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropJake Bennett OverRAY@SOX7:11 PM3.54.2-133DK Over 3.5 -133 | exact18.6%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropBailey Ober OverTWI@CUB8:06 PM3.54.1-125DK Over 3.5 -125 | exact17.6%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropColin Rea UnderTWI@CUB8:06 PM3.53.2-111BetRivers Under 3.5 -105 | best price8.6%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropBryce Miller OverGIA@MAR10:11 PM5.55.8-142BetRivers Over 5.5 -122 | best price5.0%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropAnthony Kay UnderSOX@JAY7:16 PM3.53.4-111DK Under 3.5 -111 | exact4.2%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsSandy Alcantara OverMAR@BRE7:41 PM17.519.9-141DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact13.9%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.76 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsBryce Miller OverGIA@MAR10:11 PM17.519.3-130FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price10.1%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsGavin Williams OverPIR@GUA7:11 PM17.518.6-166FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price6.3%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsReid Detmers UnderTIG@ANG9:39 PM17.517.0-122BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price2.7%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsChris Sale OverRAN@BRA7:16 PM17.517.5-165DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact0.0%Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllSeth Lugo OverPAD@ROY8:11 PM5.56.0-150theScore Bet Over 5.5 -150 | best price9.1%Watch Signal

✓ Supports   ! Mixed   ✗ Opposes   – No Data  |  Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context